Intelligence Analysis & Cognitive Biases: an Illustrative Case Study

Intelligence analysis

and cognitive biases

An illustrative case study

"He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors"

Thomas Jefferson

4/25/2016 Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016

Somebody needs to link the trees to

see the forest

In order to not be lost

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SWOT Analysis


3

De l’analyse


4

PEST Analysis


5

Various Analysis

Processes


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« LA PLUS GRANDE ERREUR DE L’ESPRIT EST DE CROIRE EN QUELQUE CHOSE CAR QUELQU’UN VEUT QU’IL EN SOIT AINSI » LOUIS PASTEUR

7 Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016 25/04/2016

Analysis Process

Intelligence Cycle

Client

Express

Plan

Collect

Exploit

Analyze

Produce


25/04/2016

« Objective Centric »

Analysis

Needs

Collect

Sources

New

Information

Competitor

New Needs

Issues

(clients)

Actionnable

Analyse


Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016 25/04/2016

Phases

Market

Objectives

Context Means

Competitors

Environment

Contrainsts

Analysis

Plans ROE

Analysis

Decision

Decision Concept

s Scenarii

Synthesis

Execution

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« Methods Centric »

Decision

Context

Environment

Competitors

Conception

Text Mining

Cartography

Social Networks

Distribution

Benchmarking

Timeliners

PEST-EL

Brevets, experts

Organizational Behaviour

Value Chain

Financial Analysis

SWOT

Brainstorming

Strategic Simulation

Risks Analysis

Sectorial Behaviours

Scenarii Analysis

Strategic Planning

ACH

Decision Profiling


Various Application

Contexts


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Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016

Rubikscube ™

25/04/2016

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Context: Text Mining

Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016 25/04/2016

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Context: Cartography


Context: Social Networks


Context: Distribution

Géographique


Environment: Benchmarking


Environment: Timeliners


Environment: PEST-EL


Environment: Patents, Experts …


Competitors: Organisational

Behaviours


Competitors: Value Chain

Analysis


Competitors: Financial Analysis


Competitors: SWOT


Conception: « Brainstorming »


Conception: Risks’ Mapping


Conception: Strategic Simulation


Decision: « Analysis of

Competing Hypotheses »


Decision: Scenario Analysis


Decision: Profiling


Analysis Constraints &

Limits


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Decisions Informations


Limits Solutions

Methods

Expertise

Analysis Assets

Monitoring

Processing

Biaises

Info. Overload

Availability

Cognitive Biases

A cognitive bias refers to a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations may be drawn in an illogical fashion.

Individuals create their own "subjective social reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of social reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behaviour in the social world.

Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.

Some cognitive biases are presumably adaptive. Cognitive biases may lead to more effective actions in a given context.

Furthermore, cognitive biases enable faster decisions when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in heuristics.

Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing limitations, resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (bounded rationality), or simply from a limited capacity for information processing.


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Decision Makers Profiling


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Cognitive Biases


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Real case biases

Lack of reliable information: distorsion from the source to the analyst …

“Confirmation Bias”: we tried to confirm the false hypothesis of the customer …

“Social Constrainst”: we did not challenge the customer’s belief …

“Financial Constraint”: the customer pays you so agree with him …

“Biaises’ Bias”: despite the knowledge of analysis methods, we biased ourselves …


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Date post:	16-Apr-2017
Category:	Business
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Intelligence Analysis & Cognitive Biases: an Illustrative Case Study

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