Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCC

Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected]

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCC

© ECOFYS | |

Open questions around intended nationally determined

contributions

> Meaning of the contributions and rationale for countries to prepare them

> Technical requirements for the preparation of a contribution

> Options for the preparation and communication of a contribution

> Requirements regarding information content

> Expectations for the international process evaluating the contributions

10/06/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected] 2

Intended Nationally

Determined Contributions

under the UNFCCC

Discussion paper

Niklas Höhne, Christian Ellermann

and Lina Li

Soon available on Ecofys.com

© ECOFYS | |

Content

> Global emission pathways towards 2°C

> Experiences from the past

> Example elements of contributions

> Conclusions

Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected] 10/06/2014 3

© ECOFYS | |

Required reductions for 2°C


0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Glo

bal

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

in G

tCO

2e

CO2 from fossil fuels and industry

CO2 from forestry

Non-CO2

Source: own figure, based on marker scenario RCP 2.6 of the IPCC, from RCP scenario database http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=download More detail on ranges from the IPCC data base see Climate Action Tracker update: http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Bonn_policy_update__final.pdf

http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=download



http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Bonn_policy_update__final.pdf

http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Bonn_policy_update__final.pdf

© ECOFYS | |

Content




> Conclusions


© ECOFYS | |

Experience from the past on mitigation commitments

> Diverse: Pledges are very diverse (economy wide targets to individual

projects)

> Ambiguous: Pledges often were ambiguous and had to be clarified

> 2°C: Some pledges are influenced by ranges needed for 2°C

– Japan -25%, Norway -40%, Mexico and South Korea 30% below BAU…

> National: Some pledges are also primarily driven by national discussions

– EU, USA, …

> Unchangeable: Pledges once made did not change

– No major economy has changed its pledge of 2009, although the gap is

widely accepted

– Even countries that will over-achieve their pledge (new circumstances or

more information) do not change it


© ECOFYS | |

What types of pledges were presented?


Type Examples

Economy wide emission reduction targets

To base year: USA, EU, Japan

To BAU: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Korea

To GDP: China, India

Energy targets China, Peru

Policies Brazil, Argentina

Projects Ethiopia

© ECOFYS | |

What types of pledges were presented?


Type Examples Characteristics


To base year: USA, EU, Japan

Full flexibility where to reduce emissions

To BAU: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Korea

Full flexibility where to reduce emissions Can factor in economic growth Creates a “moving target” if baseline changes

To GDP: China, India Full flexibility where to reduce emissions Adaptive to changes in economic development Emission outcome uncertain

Energy targets China, Peru Closer to actual actions than emission targets

Policies Brazil, Argentina Directly under control of the government

Projects Ethiopia Very detailed in scope

© ECOFYS | |

Frist inspirational goal, then national implementation


Type


Energy targets

Policies

Projects

Examples: • Norway (40%) • Japan (25%) • Costa Rica (carbon neutral) • Maldives (carbon neutral) • South Korea (30% below BAU)

Requirements • Ambitious global goal (2°C or phase out) • Strong national political leadership • Continued strong national implementation

© ECOFYS | |

National implementation (then national goal)


Type


Energy targets

Policies

Projects

Examples: • Development of specific NAMAs

Requirements • Time for policy development • Knowing the options

© ECOFYS | |

The concept of a policy menu


Source: Towards a policy menu to strengthen the ambition to mitigate greenhouse gases, March 2014, Niklas Höhne, Nadine Braun, Christian Ellermann, Kornelis Blok http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2014-towards-a-policy-menu-to-mitigate-ghg.pdf

http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2014-towards-a-policy-menu-to-mitigate-ghg.pdf

















© ECOFYS | |

Inspirational examples

> Comprehensive domestic process: South Africa - integrated research and

consultation process with high-level political leadership and cross-ministry

coordination, transferred to numerous Latin American countries

> High level of transparency: South Korea lowered its BAU projections,

while keeping the reduction rate of 30% below BAU: actually increased the

ambition of the 2020 pledge

> Comprehensive content: Brazil’s Copenhagen pledge contains an overall

GHG target, broken down to sectors and national policies to achieve it

> High level of ambition: Maldives and Costa Rica, have proposed for their

2020 pledges to become carbon neutral by around 2020

> Tracking sustainable development co-benefits: Chile’s self-supply

renewable energy NAMA has a MRV framework which includes a range of

impact indicators e.g. job creation, energy cost reduction, energy security

improvement, etc.


© ECOFYS | |

Content




> Conclusions


© ECOFYS | |

Elements of a national contribution


Type


Energy targets

Policies

Projects

• Inspirational national long term emissions goal • National short term emissions target

• Energy targets • Details on highlight policies and projects

on mitigation and adaptation

• Resource needs for their implementation • Intended provision of support • Explanations on ambition and equity

© ECOFYS | |

Examples on possible details of contributions


Element Advanced country Other country Country with low

capability

Inspirational national

long term emissions goal

Year of intended phase out

of GHG emissions

Long-term peak and decline

pathway or range -

National short term

emissions target

Precisely defined, economy

wide, multi-year target

until 2025 and/or 2030

Indication of mitigation

ambition until 2025 and/or

2030 (below BAU, intensity,

range)

-

Energy targets

National energy efficiency

or renewable targets

Targets related to land-use

and forestry


or renewable targets

Targets related to land-use

and forestry


or renewable targets, if

existing

Highlight policies and

projects

Governance structures

Highlight policies / projects

with intended impacts

Governance structures

Highlight policies / projects

with intended impacts

Selection of a few, yet

ambitious policies and/or

projects

International support

needs for mitigation and

adaptation

-

Precise purpose and value

of support needed

differentiated from actions

without support

Order of magnitude of

support needed

Intended provision of

support for mitigation

and adaptation

Source, use and value of

intended support

Intended south-south

provision of support -

Explanations

Detailed explanation why

this contribution is an

ambitious and equitable

contribution to the global

goal

Explanation why this

contribution is an ambitious

and equitable contribution

to the global goal

-

© ECOFYS | |

Content




> Conclusions


© ECOFYS | |

Conclusions

> Intended nationally determined contributions could be based on the

same elements, but are filled to a varying degree

> Possible elements of national contributions

– Inspirational national long term emissions goal

– National short term emissions target

– Energy targets

– Highlight policies and projects

– International support needs for mitigation and adaptation

– Intended provision of support for mitigation and adaptation

– Explanations


© ECOFYS | |

Thank you for your attention!

Ecofys Germany GmbH

Dr. Niklas Höhne

Am Wassermann 36

50829 Cologne

Germany

T: +49 (0)221 27070-101

E: [email protected]

I: www.ecofys.com


© ECOFYS | |

Ecofys work related to national contributions

> Analysis of countries’ 2020 pledges

– Since 2009 with the Climate Action Tracker

– Authors of the UNEP emissions gap report (2010 to 2014)

> Analysis and development of NAMAs

– Development and maintenance of the NAMA database

– Development of specific NAMA proposals

> Analysis of national policies and actions

– Comparing policies by countries since 2007 (recent paper as input to the IPCC report)

– Database with 1200 energy and climate policies worldwide

– Analysis of emission trends from implemented polices

– Developing a standard menu of policies

> Research on national commitments and contributions under the UNFCCC regime

– First report in 2003

– Most recent report for LDCs

– Analysing options for a 2015 agreement: ACT 2015

– Paper on possible elements of a 2015 legal agreement on climate change

> Research and advice on global effort sharing

– Input to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Box 13.7 and related papers)

– Input to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (paper)

> Advice on future commitments under the UNFCCC for governments

– Canada

– South Korea

– New Zealand

– Finland

– Germany

– UK


http://www.climateactiontracker.org/

http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/

http://www.nama-database.org/index.php/Main_Page

http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/development-of-a-nama-proposal/

http://www.google.de/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CD8QFjAC&url=http://assets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_g8_climate_scorecards_final.pdf&ei=sTNEU9D3KojQtQa4w4CgDQ&usg=AFQjCNEY7riTIsNJs4gTbhLbCbxN1qWkIQ&sig2=3_schJLp-YpuzPgvSkWD8g

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2013.845409

http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/publications/CAT_Trend_Report.pdf

http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/towards-a-policy-menu/

http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/evolution-of-commitments-under-unfccc-involving

http://ldcclimate.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/ldcp13_differentiated-committments.pdf



http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/act-2015

http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Possible-Elements-of-a-2015-Legal-Agreement-on-Climate-Change

https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13-ens13-3-3-3.html

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3763/cpol.2009.0678

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2014.849452?src=recsys

© ECOFYS | |

Global emission pathways towards 2°C

Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2013 App


© ECOFYS | |




© ECOFYS | |




© ECOFYS | |




© ECOFYS | |




Negative

emissions

High

reduction

rates

© ECOFYS | |

Impacts of delay


Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical summary

© ECOFYS | |

Impact of pledges on global emissions



© ECOFYS | |




© ECOFYS | |




© ECOFYS | |




© ECOFYS | |



© ECOFYS | |

Delay only with negative emissions



© ECOFYS | |

National climate policy


Countries

responsible for 67%

of global emissions

have national

climate legislation or

strategy

Source:

Dubash et al. 2013

http://dx.doi.org/10.1

080/14693062.2013.

845409

Climate legislation Climate strategy and coordinating body None of the above Analysis incomplete

Size of country proportional to 2010 GHG emissions

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2013.845409

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2013.845409

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2013.845409

© ECOFYS | |

Changing activity

Energy efficiency

Renewable energy

Low carbon Other / non energy

General Strategies + targets 70%

Electricity

Carbon pricing schemes 28%

Performance

Standards 22%

Support schemes (e.g. feed-in)

49%

Tax exemptions 6%

Industry

Carbon pricing schemes 30%

Stategies 6%

Voluntary agreements

25%

Quota 36%

…% Regulatory

…%

Buildings

Energy taxes …%

Programs 8%

Product standards &

building codes 55%

Tax exemptions 31%

…%

Transport

Fuel taxes …%

Modal shift programs

14%

Vehicle standards

23%

Direct subsidies & fuel quota

50%

E-mobility programs

14%

AFOLU Strategies

28%

Regulation / planning

39%

Global coverage of energy and climate policies


Source: Ecofys, unpublished draft

© ECOFYS | |

Pledges and recent trends


Source: Climate Action Tracker trends report http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/publications/CAT_Trend_Report.pdf




© ECOFYS | |

Negative global emissions?



© ECOFYS | |

Copenhagen pledges


Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2013

© ECOFYS | |

The emissions gap


www.climateactiontracker.org

© ECOFYS | |

EU


> Unconditional 20% (conditional 30%) below 1990 in 2020

> New proposal for 2030: 40% below 1990

> Comprehensive policy package: emissions trading, support for renewables, efficiency standards, …

© ECOFYS | |

USA


> Pledge: 17% below 2005 in 2020

> New climate plan: if implemented sufficient to meet pledge

> Policies: Car standards, power plant standards, state level renewable support, …

© ECOFYS | |

China


> Pledge: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005 by 2020, share of non-fossil fuels of 15% by 2020, forest cover

> Policies: top 10 000 company programme, support for renewables, low carbon zones, emission trading systems, efficiency standards for cars and trucks, regional ban of new coal-fired power plants, …

© ECOFYS | |

Content

> Status of the UNFCCC negotiations and

pledges

> Progress in implementing energy and

climate policies

> Cooperative initiatives

> Implications for the 2015 agreement


© ECOFYS | |

Simple view Complex view


UNFCCC

climate treaty

National government

action

Source: Draft of IPCC Fifth

Assessment Report

© ECOFYS | |

Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global

action on climate change


44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Top

-10

00

co

mp

anie

s e

mis

sio

n r

ed

uct

ion

Sup

ply

ch

ain

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Gre

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fin

anci

al in

stit

uti

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s

Vo

lun

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ies

Vo

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Maj

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Sub

-nat

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Bu

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and

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Ban

of

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Ele

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s

Car

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tru

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em

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on

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Bo

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ph

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volt

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Bo

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win

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Acc

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to e

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thro

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low

-em

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op

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Ph

asin

g o

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sub

sid

ies

for

foss

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els

Inte

rnat

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viat

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an

d m

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tra

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Flu

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Effi

cie

nt

coo

ksto

ves

Glo

bal

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2

e/a

)

Included in low ambition pledgeIncluded only in high ambition pledgeAdditional to pledges

2° C range

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

2010 2015 2020

Glo

bal G

HG

em

issio

ns (

GtC

O2e/a

)

Ambitious end of national reduction

proposals 50 GtCO2e

Confirmed national reduction

proposals 55 GtCO2e

Business as usual56 GtCO2e

Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html

2°C pathway

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html


© ECOFYS | |

Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global

action on climate change


Top-1000 companies emission reduction

Supply chain emission reductions

Green financial institutions

Voluntary offset companies

Companies’ emissions

Voluntary offsets consumers

Major cities initiative

Sub-national governments

Other actors

Buildings heating and cooling

Ban of incandescent lamps

Electric appliances

Cars and trucks emission reductions

Energy efficiency

Intl. aviation and maritime transport

Fluorinated gases initiative

Reduce deforestation

Agriculture

Special sectors

Methane and other air pollutants

Efficient cook stoves

Methane and other air pollutants

Boost solar photovoltaic energy

Boost wind energy

Access energy through low emission options

Energy supply

Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels

Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html



© ECOFYS | |

Cooperative initiatives


> Energy efficiency with significant potential, up to 2 GtCO2e by 2020. It is

already covered by a substantial number of initiatives. Focus and coherency

is needed.

> Fossil-fuel subsidy reform with varying estimates of the reduction

potential: 0.4–2 GtCO2e by 2020. The number of initiatives and clear

commitments in this area is limited.

> Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants as a mix of several

sources. Reducing methane emissions from fossil-fuel production has

received particular attention in the literature. This area is covered by several

specific initiatives and one that is overarching.

> Renewable energy with particularly large potential: 1–3 GtCO2e by 2020.

Several initiatives have been started in this area. Focus and coherency is

needed.

Quelle: UNEP emissions gap report

http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/

© ECOFYS | |

Content

> Status of the UNFCCC negotiations and

pledges

> Progress in implementing energy and

climate policies

> Cooperative initiatives

> Implications for the 2015

agreement


© ECOFYS | |

Implications for the 2015 agreement

> Enable strong pledges: Self-determined pledges alone unlikely to be

sufficient for 2°C

> Incentivise national policies to implement and overachieve pledges

> Support cooperative initiatives: help actors other than national

governments to intensify their efforts


© ECOFYS | |

Experience from the past on mitigation commitments

> Diverse: Pledges are very diverse (economy wide targets to individual

projects)

> Ambiguous: Pledges often were ambiguous and had to be clarified

> 2°C: Some pledges are influenced ranges needed for 2°C

– Norway -40%, Mexico and South Korea 30% below BAU, Japan -25%, …

> National: Some pledges are also primarily driven by national discussions

– EU, USA, …

> Unchangeable: Pledges once made did not change

– No major economy has changed its pledge of 2009, although the gap is

widely accepted

– Even countries that will over-achieve their pledge (new circumstances or

more information) do not change it


© ECOFYS | |

Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal Agreement

Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal

Agreement on Climate Change

Erik Haites; Farhana Yamin; Niklas Höhne

Working Papers N°16/2013. Iddri, 2013. 24 p.


Ambition

Joint goal of all Parties to phase out anthropogenic greenhouse

gas emissions by 2050

Nationally proposed 2020-23 commitments

- Consistent with the phase-out goal

- Based on self-selected equity principle

- Technical review

See also: Höhne et al. 2013, Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century, http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2013-feasibility-ghg-phase-out-2050.pdf

http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2013-feasibility-ghg-phase-out-2050.pdf













© ECOFYS | |

Feasibility of a global GHG phase out goal

Source: Höhne et al. 2013, Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century,



Source: Höhne et al. 2013, Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century, http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2013-feasibility-ghg-phase-out-2050.pdf



























© ECOFYS | |

Implications for the 2015 agreement

> Enable strong pledges: Self-determined pledges alone unlikely to be

sufficient for 2°C

– Strong global goal, e.g. phase out of GHG emissions by 2050

– Regular technical and equity review of pledges and commitments

– Accept offers as floor of ambition and increase ambition afterwards

> Incentivise national policies to implement and overachieve pledges

> Support cooperative initiatives: help actors other than national

governments to intensify their efforts


© ECOFYS | |

www.ClimateActionTracker.org

52 10/06/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected]

© ECOFYS | |

www.ClimateActionTracker.org


© ECOFYS | |

Paper

Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal

Agreement on Climate Change

Erik Haites; Farhana Yamin; Niklas

Höhne

Working Papers N°16/2013. Iddri,

2013. 24 p.

> Proposal on a package of possible

elements of a 2015 legal agreement

> Tried to find an effective new

landing ground that is “hybrid” -

avoiding sterile debate between

“top-down” and “bottom-up”

approaches

> Proposal is entirely the authors

responsibility


© ECOFYS | |

Mitigation

> Legal gap in UNFCCC: fundamental weakness is lack of clear binding

commitment for any Party to reduce GHGs


Ambition

Joint goal of all Parties to phase out anthropogenic

greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

Register of mitigation actions by non-state entities

Nationally proposed 2020-23 commitments consistent with the phase

out goal based on self selected equity principle

© ECOFYS | |

Mitigation – phase out goal

> “All parties to the 2015 Agreement commit, jointly and individually, to a

goal of phasing out anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, with a

target of net zero emissions by no later than 2050, and to take additional

action until this goal is achieved.” This addresses fundamental legal gap

relating to mitigation for long term.

> Very low levels of greenhouse gas emissions are required to stabilize

atmospheric concentrations at any level

> Scenarios show that 2050 phase out date is ambitious but technically

and economically feasible

See also:

Höhne et al. 2013, Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century, http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2013-feasibility-ghg-phase-out-2050.pdf
















© ECOFYS | |

Phase out goal and self chosen commitments


Proposal:

Commitment and

equity principle

Technical review

and questions

Final 2020-23 Commitment

More ambitious 2024-27

commitment

Sufficient?

Yes

No

Yes

No

Parties propose national commitments

• For 2020-2023

• Consistent with net zero phase out goal

• Free on nature of its national commitment, but expressed

as a change to observed emissions or policies

• With equity principle(s) used to determine the fair

contribution to the global effort

A party may raise the

ambition level of its

commitment at any

time

Not in the proposal

• Commonly agreed equity reference

framework

• Categories of parties

Source: Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal Agreement on Climate

Change, Erik Haites; Farhana Yamin; Niklas Höhne, Working Papers

N°16/2013. Iddri, 2013. 24 p. www.iddri.org

© ECOFYS | |

Options

Experience from the past

> Pledges are very diverse, templates are nice to have but not strictly necessary

> Once offers are made public they hardly change

> Global goal influences pledges

> Offers may be outside of what would be necessary for 2°C (Höhne et al. 2013)

Ways to ensure ambitious national offers

> Early pledges and strong review process

> Accept offers as floor of ambition and ratchet up afterwards

> Agree on an equity reference framework before pledges are made

> Strong global goal (phase out of GHG emissions by 2050) and national offers with technical review (Haites et al. 2013)

> Two proposals (Müller et al. 2013)

– First: type of commitment and equity principle

– Analysis

– Second: level of commitment

Höhne et al 2013: Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies, climate policy, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.849452

Haites et al. 2013: Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal Agreement on Climate Change, Working Papers N°16/2013. Iddri, 2013. 24 p.

www.iddri.org

Müller et al. 2013: A Staged Approach: The sequencing of mitigation commitments in the post-2020 ADP negotiations http://jusharma.wordpress.com/2013/11/06/a-staged-approach-the-sequencing-of-mitigation-commitments-in-the-post-2020-adp-negotiations-2/


http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.849452

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.849452

http://www.iddri.org/

http://jusharma.wordpress.com/2013/11/06/a-staged-approach-the-sequencing-of-mitigation-commitments-in-the-post-2020-adp-negotiations-2/






























© ECOFYS | |

Possible process to determine commitments II

> Separate proposal on type and proposal on

level

> Allows to indicate order of magnitude

commitment without determining a fixed

number

See Benito Müller and Niklas Höhne: A Staged Approach: The

sequencing of mitigation commitments in the post-2020 ADP

negotiations http://jusharma.wordpress.com/2013/11/06/a-staged-

approach-the-sequencing-of-mitigation-commitments-in-the-post-2020-

adp-negotiations-2/


Proposals on type of

commitment and equity principle

Negotiations

Fixing in agreement

Informal assessment of commitment

levels

Proposals on level of

commitment
































© ECOFYS | |

Overview & background


© ECOFYS | |

Mitigation – phase out goal

Several scenarios available

(more soon available for the in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report)

Source Höhne et al. 2013, Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century,
















© ECOFYS | |

Energy related CO2 emissions in phase out scenarios

> Option 1: Very high energy efficiency and near 100% renewables, no CCS

(bottom up scenarios)

> Option 2: Less efficiency, significant bio CCS (Integrated Assessment

Models)


© ECOFYS | |

Non-CO2 emissions in phase out scenarios


© ECOFYS | |

GHG emissions today

Source: Ecofys, based on IEA and EDGAR databases


© ECOFYS | |

Inclusiveness

> The national commitment of a country that is not a party to the agreement

can be “recognized” subject to criteria such as equivalent stringency of both

mitigation and financial commitments and acceptance of the reporting and

international review arrangements that apply to parties

> “Recognition” is a COP decision based on advice from the Compliance

Committee

> Possible internationally agreed border adjustments on imports of emissions-

intensive goods from non-parties with no recognized national commitment

> Border adjustment is a COP decision based on advice from the Compliance

Committee. Experience shows these would rarely, if ever, be used


© ECOFYS | |

The challenges of 2°C with current pledges


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Glo

bal

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2

e)

Year

Historical emissions

1996 - EU agrees on 2°C limit, which meant - Ambitious but realistic reduction rates

- Delayed participation of developing countries possible - Choice of technology possible

- Opportunities for innovation and energy security

2012 - Today: 2°C limit means - Last chance, action before 2020 necessary

- Instantaneous change by all actors - Opportunities for innovation and energy security

- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary

Future emissions

given pledges

2020 – planned entry into force of new climate agreement: 2°C limit means

- High probability that 2°C limit is missed - Instantaneous change by all actors

- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary - All technologies necessary

- Shutdown of equipment before its end of life

© ECOFYS | |

Possible processes to determine commitments


Equity Reference

Framework (optional)

Proposals

Negotiations

Review

of aggregated

proposals

Individual review

Fixing in agreement

Ratchet up (optional)

Sufficient?

YesNo

Sufficient?

Yes No

Agreed?

Yes

No

10/06/2014 67

© ECOFYS | |

Chile self-supply renewable energy NAMA


Source: Development of a NAMA proposal for Self-supply renewable energy (SSRE) in Chile http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-fch-corfo-2013-nama-proposal-ssre-in-chile.pdf

10/06/2014 68

http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-fch-corfo-2013-nama-proposal-ssre-in-chile.pdf

















© ECOFYS | |

Japan

> Copenhagen pledge: 25% below 1990 in 2020 – New: 3.8% below 2005

> Only a third of the change can be explained by nuclear phase-out


© ECOFYS | |

Emissions gap

Pledge leave a gap of 8 to 12 GtCO2e in

2020

Source:

UNEP emissions gap report

http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emi

ssionsgapreport2013/


© ECOFYS | |

Wegding the gap – complementary initiatives

> Starting point: Starting point from which a significant up-scaling until the year 2020 is possible

> Leader(s): An organization (or a combination of organizations) exist that can lead the global initiative

> Self interest: Actors are driven by self interest or internal motivation, not by external pressure

> Co-benefits: There are significant additional benefits next to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. health, jobs, resilience)

> Large: Each initiative has the potential to reach an emission reduction of a the order of 0.5 GtCO2e by 2020


© ECOFYS | |

Content


© ECOFYS | |

Categories of effort sharing approaches

10/06/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected]

Responsibility

Equality

Cost effectiveness

Staged

approaches Capability

Need

Responsibility

capability

need

Equal cumulative

per capita

emissions

73

© ECOFYS | |

Results in 2030 for 450 ppmCO2e


Allowances in 2030 based on categories of effort sharing categories (450 ppmCO2e)

74

© ECOFYS | |

Results in 2030 for 450 ppmCO2e


© ECOFYS | |

Results in 2050


Allowances in 2050 for different stabilization levels (all effort sharing categories,

except cost effectiveness)

76

© ECOFYS | |

Results


Allowances in 2030 based on categories of effort sharing categories (450 ppmCO2e)

77

© ECOFYS | |

Results in 2050


Allowances in 2050 for different stabilization levels (all effort sharing categories,

except cost effectiveness)

78

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Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCC

Environment