INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED …jcm-mongolia.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/INDC_Full...INTENDED...

INTENDED NATIONALLYDETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

OF MONGOLIA

TO THE 2015 AGREEMENT UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

(UNFCCC) AND SUBMITTED TO THE UNFCCC SECRETARIAT ON 24TH OF SEPTEMBER 2015

ULAANBAATAR 2015

Section I

Section II

The development and publication of the “Mongolia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the 2015 Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)” was supervised by the Climate Change Project Implementing Unit of the Nature Conservation Fund (NCF) under the Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism of Mongolia with financial and technical support from the Global Environmental Facility, United Nations Environment Programme and Global INDC Support Programme implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

The official document of Mongolia’s INDC was submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat on September 24th 2015.

Editor-in-chief: Batjargal ZambaProject director: Batjargal KhandjavNational Working team: Tegshjargal Bumtsend (project manager), Solongo Byambadorj (project administrative assistant), Saruul Dolgorsuren (development of project proposal)

International consultants: GIZ supported consultants: Inga Zachow (Global INDC Support Programme, GIZ), Koen Smekens, James Falzon, Matthew Halstead (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, ECN), Thomas Day (New Climate Institute, NCI) Consultants from UNEP-DTU Partnership: Sudhir Sharma, Prakriti Naswa

Leaders of the Thematic Working Groups: Batimaа P., Natsagdorj L.

Members of the Thematic Working Groups: Dorjpurev J., Namkhainyam B., Bolortsetseg B., Bynie B., Davaa G., Davaadorj G., Dorjsuren Ch., Gomboluudev P., Erdenetsetseg B.

Designed by: Batzorig.B

© Disclaimers

This document may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism (MEGDT) of Mongolia would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this document as a source.

No use of this document may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the MEGDT of Mongolia.

Section I

Section II

Section III

Foreword ............................................................................................................. 8Preface ................................................................................................................ 9

CHAPTER 1. RATIONALE AND PROCESS FOR DEVELOPING INDCs ON ADAPTATION ............................................................................................ 121.1. Adaptation Rationale ................................................................................. 12

CHAPTER 2. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS, IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES ................................................................ 132.1. Current climate change and future scenarios ............................................. 132.2. Impact of climate change, vulnerability and risks ....................................... 15

CHAPTER 3. REPORTING ON LONG-TERM AND NEAR-TERM ADAPTATION VISIONS, GOALS AND TARGETS .................. 213.1. Adaptation goals and targets ...................................................................... 213.1.1. National and sectoral adaptation goals and targets ................................ 213.1.2. Prioritization of adaptation goals and targets .......................................... 263.1.3. Adaptation-mitigation benefits ................................................................ 26

CHAPTER 4. CURRENT AND PLANNED ADAPTATION UNDERTAKINGS AND SUPPORT .................................................................. 274.1. Financial ..................................................................................................... 274.2. Capacity...................................................................................................... 334.3. Technical ..................................................................................................... 36

CHAPTER 5. GAPS AND BARRIERS .............................................................. 39

CHAPTER 6. SUMMARY OF NEEDS ............................................................... 41

CHAPTER 7. MONITORING AND REPORTING PROGRESS ........................ 43

ANNEX I. Prioritization of adaptation goals and targets ................................... 44

CHAPTER 8. GHG MITIGATION ..................................................................... 488.1. Existing national GHG emissions and BAU projections of GHG emissions ................................................................................................. 488.1.1. National GHG inventory for the latest year available............................... 488.2. National BAU GHG emission...................................................................... 568.3. Assumptions and methods for establishing BAU emissions in the energy sector .......................................................................... 59

Table of contents

8.3.1. Method..................................................................................................... 598.3.2. Assumptions ............................................................................................ 598.3.3. Energy sector (power and heat) Business as Usual (BAU) or Reference Scenario ...................................................................................... 608.3.4. Energy sector (transport) Business as Usual (BAU) or Reference Scenario ...................................................................................... 618.4. Non-energy sector ...................................................................................... 618.4.1. Industrial sector ....................................................................................... 618.4.2. Agriculture................................................................................................ 628.4.3. Land use, land-use change and forestry ................................................. 628.4.4. Waste ...................................................................................................... 62

CHAPTER 9. OPTIONS FOR MITIGATION COMPONENT OF THE INDC ..... 639.1. Type and format of mitigation contribution .................................................. 639.1.1. Type of mitigation contribution ................................................................. 639.1.2. Economy-wide GHG emission target ...................................................... 649.1.3. Sectoral GHG emission target ................................................................. 649.1.4. Decarbonization indicator ........................................................................ 649.1.5. Policies and measures ............................................................................ 659.1.6. Format of mitigation contribution ............................................................. 659.2. Timing considerations for mitigation contribution........................................ 669.2.1. Target year for activities ........................................................................... 669.2.2. Period of implementation ......................................................................... 669.3. Unilateral and supported contributions ....................................................... 669.4. Political and legal implications of the mitigation component....................... 679.5. Type and format of Mongolia’s mitigation contribution ............................... 67

CHAPTER 10. MONGOLIA’S INDC: MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION.............. 70

CHAPTER 11. ASSESSMENT OF MITIGATION IMPACT, FAIRNESS AND AMBITION OF THE INDC ..................................................... 7111.1. Mitigation impact of INDC ........................................................................ 7111.1.1. GHG Mitigation Scenarios in energy sector .......................................... 7111.1.2. Energy (transport) emissions reductions calculation ............................. 7311.1.3. Industrial measure (cement) emissions reductions calculation ............. 7411.1.4. Agriculture emissions reductions calculation ......................................... 7411.2. Net emissions reductions .......................................................................... 7411.3. Fairness and ambition of INDC ................................................................ 74

CHAPTER 12. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION FOR THE MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION ......................................................................... 7512.1. Anchoring the mitigation contribution in legislation ................................... 7512.2. Obtaining international support................................................................. 7512.3. Next steps for implementation .................................................................. 76

CHAPTER 13. TRACKING AND MONITORING PROGRESS ......................... 7813.1. Sectors and gases covered ..................................................................... 7813.2. Accounting Methods for tracking the mitigation contribution ................... 7813.3. Accounting method used for forest mitigation actions .............................. 7813.4. Institutional arrangements for INDC implementation (mitigation part) ...... 78

REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 81

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1. Changes in a) annual mean temperature, and b) annual precipitation in Mongolia between 1940 and 2014 ....................13Figure 2.2. Future temperature changes in a) winter and b) summer seasons, oC (in comparison with the average temperatures during 1986-2005) ..................14Figure 2.3. Future changes in precipitation in a) winter and b) summer seasons, % (in comparison with the average of period of 1986-2005) ................................15Figure 8.1. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the energy sector, by fuel type ..........49Figure 8.2. Total GHG emissions from the energy sector by gases in Gg CO2-eq. ............50Figure 8.3. Projections of GHG emissions and removals (sector) .....................................57Figure 8.4. GHG emission projections (by gas types) ........................................................58Figure 8.5. Comparison of GHG emission projections prepared in three different studies .59Figure 8.6. GHG emissions from energy demand and energy transformation ...................60Figure 8.7. GHG emissions from power plants ...................................................................61Figure 11.1. Indicative potential emissions reductions of the measures compared to BAU emissions ...........................................................74Figure 13.1. Simplified chart of Institutional arrangement for GHG mitigation analysis and implementation ............................................................................79

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1. Summary of climate change impacts, vulnerability and risk assessment ..........17Table 3.1. National and sectoral adaptation goals and targets ...........................................22Table 3.2. Possible adaptation co-benefits .........................................................................26Table 4.1. Implementation of climate change adaptation undertakings and supports ........28Table 4.2. Capacity of current and planned undertakings...................................................33Table 4.3. Current and planned adaptation undertakings ...................................................36Table 5.1. Gaps and barriers ..............................................................................................40Table 6.1. Adaptation needs (2021-2030) ...........................................................................41ANNEX I Prioritization of adaptation goals and targets (Scores: Very high-3, High-2, Medium-1) ...........................................................44Table 8.1. CO2 emissions from solid fuel combustion, Gg ..................................................48Table 8.2. Total CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in Gg CO2-eq. in the energy sector ............50Table 8.3. All types of cargo transport turnover and passenger turnover ...........................50Table 8.4. Number of cars, types and used period .............................................................51Table 8.5. Improved roads by length ...................................................................................51Table 8.6. CO2 emissions from lime production, Gg ...........................................................52Table 8.7. Total NMVOC emissions from food and beverages production in the industrial sector, Gg ..................................................................................52Table 8.8. Total emissions related to halocarbons, Gg .......................................................53Table 8.9. GHG Emissions from the agricultural sector, Gg ...............................................53Table 8.10. GHG emissions from the waste sector, Gg ........................................................54Table 8.11. Mongolia’s total GHG emissions by gases (excl. LULUCF sector) for the period 1990-2012 (Gg CO2-eq.) ..............................................................55Table 8.12. Mongolia’s total GHG emissions by sectors (excl. LULUCF sector) for the period 1990-2012 (Gg CO2-eq.) ..............................................................56Table 8.13. Aggregated projections of GHG emissions by sector ........................................57Table 8.14. GHG emission projections from Energy sector prepared in three different studies, million tonnes CO2-eq ............................................................58Table 8.15. GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.) from energy sector for BAU scenario .... 60Table 8.16. GHG emissions caused from transportation sector, kt CO2 ...............................61Table 10.1. Proposed policies and measures for Mongolia’s INDC ......................................69Table 10.2. List of NAMAs of Mongolia to the Copenhagen Accord .....................................70Table 11.1. Capacity of renewable energy sources for electricity generation, MW ..............71Table 11.2. Assumptions for reduction of electricity transmission and distribution of power plant own use losses and building energy efficiency ...........................72Table 11.3. Assumptions for power plant electric efficiency improvement, % ......................72Table 11.4. GHG emissions in different scenarios, million tonnes CO2-eq. ..........................73Table 11.5. GHG emission reduction, million tonnes CO2-eq. ..............................................73Table 12.1. Policies and measures for implementation up to 2030 ......................................76

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB Asian Development BankBAU Business as usual scenarioCC Climate changeCHP Combined heat and power plantDTU Technical University of Denmark ECN Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands GCF Green Climate FundGEF Global Environmental FacilityGHG Greenhouse gasHPP Hydro power plant IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JCM Joint Crediting Mechanism between Mongolia and JapanLULUCF Land use, land-use change and forestry MEGDT Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism of Mongolia NAMAs Nationally appropriate mitigation actions NAPCC National action programme on climate change NCF Nature Conservation Fund NMVOC Non-methane volatile organic compounds UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WB World Bank

UNITS°C Degree celsiusСО2-eq. Carbon dioxide equivalentGg Gigagram = 109 gram ha Hectares km KilometreMW Megawatt = 106 watt mln Milliont Tonnes

Foreword

8

According to Mongolia’s Second Assessment Report on Climate Change 2014, the impacts and consequences of climate change are eventually visible in Mongolia through environmental degradation with the change in water resources and regimes, shrinking lakes, ponds and springs in non-permafrost areas, depletion of groundwater tables, pasture and soil degradation due to aridity and extreme heat in the summer, a loss of biodiversity, intensified desertification, the changes of wildlife habitat, and the increasing frequency of forest and steppe fires.

In the assessment report, issued by the international organization, Mongolia has ranked at 8 out of the 10 world’s most vulnerable countries to the climate change by its long-term index, based on data between 1993 and 2012. Future climate change projections indicate that there is a higher possibility of increased intensification of drought

and ddzud throughout the country. Such frequent occurrences of drought and ddzud and decline of livestock productivity will have adverse impact on livelihood of local communities, and thus migration might exacerbate the challenges faced by the urban settlements and cities.

The amount of machinery, technology, fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides in the arable farming has multiplied since the rapid development of agriculture sector in 1980s; however, the crop yield per hectare fluctuated around 50 percent depending on weather conditions. Current year’s poor harvest shows that such situation is actual in nowadays as well. Moreover, climate change might have adverse impact on human health. For instance, due to climate zone shifts, outbreaks of new emerging infectious diseases might spread among the population.

In this respect, there is a strong need to develop long term strategies on response and adaptation to climate change, covering all possible impacts on livelihood of local communities, on the trend of economic development at the national and regional levels, as well on the urban planning and infrastructure development in the country. Considering the equality in mitigating global and regional climate change, Mongolia convinced that as a UN member country it has responsibility to make its contribution to the climate change mitigation activities, mobilizing own potential and with the financial and technical support from the international organizations and donor community.

As the world marches toward the United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP21) in December 2015, together with the move from the Millennium Development Goals to Sustainable Development Goals, governments have prepared their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) setting efforts towards limiting the rise of the global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Reaffirming its commitment to support the efforts of international community in reaching the multi-lateral agreement to fulfil the main goal of the Convention, Mongolia has developed its INDC, which reflect Mongolia’s endeavours towards the reduction of emissions. The INDC of Mongolia respectfully addressed both mitigation and adaptation challenges, and was officially submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat on 24th of September, 2015.

I strongly believe that, by implementing actions included in the INDC, Mongolia will not only strengthen the capacity of surmounting the adverse impacts of global climate change but also will contribute to global climate change mitigation actions.

Battsereg Namdag

Member of the Parliament, Minister of Environment, Green Development and Tourism

Foreword

9

Preface

PrefaceNational context

Mongolia is a landlocked country located in the centre of the Eurasian continent in a temperate climate zone. The climate is characterised by high fluctuations and extremes in temperature and precipitation. The annual mean temperature ranges from -8°C to 8°C across regions and the annual precipitation varies from 50mm in the Gobi desert to 400mm in the northern mountainous area. Climate change assessments undertaken in Mongolia in 2009 and 2014, demonstrated that fragile ecosystems, a reliance on pastoral animal husbandry and rain-fed agriculture, and the growing population with a tendency of urbanization, all combine to make Mongolia’s socio-economic development vulnerable to climate change.

Development of Mongolia’s INDC

Mongolia’s INDC has its conceptual roots in the Green Development Policy of Mongolia, approved by the Parliament in 2014, to which key sectoral action plans at the national level, including energy sector, are being adjusted. Key indicators for measuring progress in the implementation of the Green Development Policy include, among others, efficient use of energy, GHG emissions and ecological footprint per unit of GDP. The National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) endorsed by the Parliament 2011 includes concrete measures in response to climate change covering all principal sectors of the economy. These and other relevant national level policy documents served as a basis for the development of Mongolia’s INDC, which was shaped and finalized through comprehensive consultation exercises with a broad range of stakeholders.

Adaptation component

The melting of permafrost and glaciers, surface water shortages, and soil and pasture degradation have been identified as particular challenges faced by Mongolia as a result of climate change. Due to a high degree of vulnerability to climate change, adaptation is particularly important for Mongolia, and as such a distinct adaptation component is therefore included in the INDC. The selection of priorities for the adaptation component is based on a detailed analysis of the expected impacts, potential solutions and challenges, and of possible synergies between adaptation and mitigation activities (Part I).

Mitigation contribution

In its INDC, Mongolia has outlined a series of policies and measures that the country commits to implement up to 2030, in the energy, industry, agriculture and waste sectors. The expected mitigation impact of these policies and measures will be a 14% reduction in total national GHG emissions excluding Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) by 2030, compared to the projected emissions under a business as usual scenario. Those and other potentially more ambitious commitments are contingent upon gaining access to new technologies and sources of finance through internationally agreed mechanisms and instruments under the auspices of the UNFCCC (Part II).

Preface

10

Acknowledgement

Development of this document was undertaken by experienced national teams of specialists and professionals lead by Dr. Natsagdorj L. (Adaptation team: Bolortsetseg B., Bynie B., Davaa G., Davaadorj G., Dorjsuren Ch., Erdenetsetseg B., Gomboluudev P.), Dr. Batima. P. (Mitigation team: Dorjpurev J., Namkhainyam B.) and Dr. Batjargal Z. served as a lead advisor on the content and methodology of the work and essential contributions were made by the Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) supported international consultants: Inga Zachow (GIZ, Global INDC Support Programme), Koen Smekens, James Falzon and Matthew Halstead (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, ECN) Thomas Day (New Climate Institute, NCI) and the consultants from the UNEP-DTU Partnership Sudhir Sharma and Prakriti Naswa.

Preparation and compilation of this document were coordinated by the Climate Change Project Implementing Unit (CCPIU) of the Nature Conservation Fund (NCF) under the Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism (MEGDT) of Mongolia with technical and financial support from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

Ms. Tegshjargal B. (project manager) and Ms. Solongo B. (project administrative assistant) were responsible for overall coordination activities on the implementation of the project under general guidance Mr. Batjargal Kh., director of the NCF. The rest staff of the CCPIU of NCF have provided invaluable support and contributed significantly to the success of the work. The policy support from the MEGDT and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and guidance of the relevant departments of these and other ministries have played an important role in the successful completion and authorization of the work. The valuable contribution of every entity and individual to this time consuming task and the skill and knowledge they have provided is highly appreciated.

Batjargal Zamba

National Focal Point for the UNFCCC

11

Climate Change AdaptationChapter 1

Climate Change AdaptationII

Climate Change Adaptation

12

Chapter 1

CHAPTER 1. RATIONALE AND PROCESS FOR DEVELOPING INDCs ON ADAPTATION

1.1. Adaptation Rationale

Mongolia is a landlocked country located in the centre of the Eurasian continent and in a temperate climate zone. Because of its location, ecosystems in Mongolia are unique and fragile to the livelihood of people. Therefore, socio-economic development of the country is highly vulnerable to climate change.

In the last 50 years, Mongolia faced challenges such as pasture degradation and desertification, shrinkage of habitats, decrease in the number of plant species and wild live, regular outbreaks of fires and water resource deficit in the steppe region as well as increased frequency and magnitude of climate disasters including drought and dzud. As a result, socio-economic negative impacts have been visible in ways of unstable variations in crop production, animal loss, increased migrant or “ecological refugees” from rural to urban, outbreaks of new diseases, epidemics and public health issues.

Apparently, adaptation strategies are required to be aligned with the country and sector development policies and planning under such climate change impacts on the environment, natural resources and socio economic sectors.

Although, separate laws do not regulate climate change issues, the concept and principles related to climate change are streamlined in the Comprehensive national development strategy. The “Technology Needs Assessment for Adaptation” emphasized 8 strategies and policies of development at national and sectoral level including climate change related chapters and articles (TNA, 2013). One of the framework documents is the National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC, 2011), which was updated and endorsed by the Parliament. The programme has defined 5 strategic objectives in two phases covered 2011-2021. Action plan for the first phase for 2011-2016 was approved by the Government Resolution No. 317. Within second strategic objective of the NAPCC, 13 actions have been reflected to improve adaptation capacity, ensure environmental sustainability and reduce vulnerability and risks of socio-economic sectors. Furthermore, Green Development Policy approved by the Parliament in 2014 includes climate change adaptation issues is one main target of the country development (MARCC, 2014).

The Long term Development Strategy (2015-2040), where climate change adaptation has been greatly emphasized, is under consideration for an approval by the Parliament. Fourth strategic direction of the strategy is entirely focusing on eco-friendly society through adapting to the climate change and risks prevention.

As above strategic documents and policies highlighted, adaptation requires more focus rather than mitigation because of high vulnerability of natural resources and socio-economic sectors to climate change. Accordingly, adaptation chapter has been included in the INDC report based on existing studies, analysis of adaptation processes, challenges faced and gaps. Through the gaps and barriers, corrective/priority actions and the support required to execute them in terms of finance, capacity and human resources has been defined. As a result, it will contribute to reduce vulnerability of the country to climate change and improve resilience of the nation.

13


CHAPTER 2. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS, IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES

2.1. Current climate change and future scenarios

The climate in Mongolia has a distinct four seasons, a wide range of temperature variation and low precipitation. Clear geographical pattern of climate variables can be seen depending on latitude and longitude. The annual mean temperature is -8oC to 8oC, the summer average is 10oC to 26oC and the winter average is -15oC to -30oC. The annual precipitation is about 50-400mm and 85% out of it falls in the warm season when intense rainfalls occur from convection process.

The climate change (as observed in the last 70 years) in Mongolia has the most intensified changes in thousands of years while Mongolians herd pastoral livestock. Consequently, these changes will cause serious risks and damage into socio-economic aspects that are highly dependent on weather and climate.

Observation records of 48 meteorological stations evenly scattered over Mongolia between 1940 and 2014 show that the annual mean temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere has increased by 2.07oC, whereby more warming has occurred in mountainous areas and less increase in temperature has been observed in steppe and the Gobi desert. The warmest 10 years in last 74 years have occured since 1997 (Figure 2.1.a). Furthermore, average seasonal temperatures increased and summer warming has been in its highest rate (MARCC, 2014).

-3-2-101234

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

Annu

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-60

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40

60

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

Annu

al p

reci

pita

tion,

mm

Figure 2.1. Changes in a) annual mean temperature, and b) annual precipitation in Mongolia between 1940 and 2014


14

Chapter 2

For the same time period, the annual precipitation has experienced little decrease while winter precipitation has gradually increased and summer rain has slightly dropped (Figure 2.1.b). The highest precipitation decrease has been recorded in the central region of the country. Percentile of intensive rainfall has risen in the total precipitation of the growing season.

In general, climate extreme events such as number of days and duration of hot spells has grown and the number of cold days has reduced. Accordingly, the recorded maximum temperatures have changed in the recent years at meteorological stations.

The aridity index, defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (UNEP, 1992), estimated with 41 meteorological station’s data, shows a decline by 0.003 in the last 74 years. A declining aridity index signifies that the aridification has intensified in Mongolia.

Based on scenarios estimated by global models (10 Global Climate Models), air temperature in all four seasons continue to grow in the country. In comparison with the base period (1986-2005), temperature increases are expected to be 2.2oC in the near future (2016-2035); and 2.5oC, 3.5oC and 6.0oC in the future period of 2081-2100 depending on low, medium and high emission scenarios respectively. Figure 2.2 shows future changes in winter and summer temperatures under three emission scenarios.

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tem

pera

ture

cha

nge,

0 C

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tem

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2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

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2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

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-4

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0

2

4

6

8

10

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RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6

Figure 2.2. Future temperature changes in a) winter and b) summer seasons, oC

(in comparison with the average temperatures during 1986-2005)

15


In the near future the seasonal precipitations will increase by 12% in winter, 9% in spring, 3% in summer and 7% in autumn. This trend will continue to grow in the end of the century and is estimated to be 15-50% increase in winter, 12-28% increase in spring, 5-8% increase in summer and 8-24% increase in autumn depending on emission scenarios.

Winter and summer seasons precipitation changes under three future emission scenarios are displayed in Figure 2.3.

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Pre

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chan

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RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Pre

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RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

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2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Pre

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50

100

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RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6

Figure 2.3. Future changes in precipitation in a) winter and b) summer seasons, %

(in comparison with the average of period of 1986-2005)

2.2. Impact of climate change, vulnerability and risks

The second Assessment report on climate change (MARCC, 2014) summarized current observed climate change, future estimation, and impact of climate change on nature, socio-economic sectors, vulnerability and risk assessment in Mongolia.

Although, there could be some positive impacts of climate change for Mongolia, the negative impacts are likely to dominate and pose serious threats to the sustainability of the socio-economic systems. Table 2.1 summarizes impacts and risks caused by climate change on


16

Chapter 2

natural resources and socio-economic sectors and addresses the following:

• Change of climate variables under current climate change

• Key changes and impacts in the sectors

• Major results of expected impacts, vulnerability and risks assessment

• Actions and measure required to be taken

Based on the assessment, continuous warming in all seasons and decreased precipitation (especially in summer season) will lead to intensified droughts and dryness, which will adversely affect environmental and socio-economic sectors.

Ultimately, adaptation goal, objectives and actions should aim to reduce vulnerability and climate-induced risks of these sectors in alignment with development strategies, policies and plans of the country as well as international development directions.

Assessment of current and future impact of climate change confirms that animal husbandry, arable farming, human health, and natural resources including water, forest, pasture and soil are the most vulnerable sectors in Mongolia, and also reinforces the importance of natural disaster management.

17


Tab

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min

ant,

-Soi

l fer

tility

and

qua

lity

has

degr

aded

.

-Res

ults

from

“Cen

tury

” ec

osys

tem

mod

el s

how

ed th

at

for a

bove

grou

nd b

iom

ass,

net

pr

imar

y pr

oduc

tion

and

past

ure

biom

ass

wou

ld d

ecre

ase

by

10-4

0% fr

om c

urre

nt le

vels

in

natu

ral z

ones

,-S

oil o

rgan

ic c

arbo

n is

es

timat

ed to

be

redu

ced

by 6

.3-

9.5%

in th

e 20

50s

in th

e fo

rest

st

eppe

and

the

step

pe re

gion

s.

-Pas

ture

m

anag

emen

t,-E

cosy

stem

ba

sed

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res,

-Pas

ture

re

stor

atio

n.

1.2

-Dec

reas

ed

prec

ipita

tion

in w

arm

se

ason

s an

d in

crea

sed

evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n ra

tes,

-Ext

ende

d dr

y pe

riods

, an

d in

tens

e an

d lo

nger

dr

ough

ts,

-War

mer

soi

l dep

th

tem

pera

ture

s,-M

ore

visi

ble

war

min

g in

the

high

mou

ntai

ns

zone

s.

Fore

st e

co

syst

ems

-Are

a co

vere

d by

fore

sts

has

decr

ease

d by

4.1

% in

the

perio

d of

199

9-20

12,

-Fre

quen

cy o

f for

est fi

res

has

incr

ease

d an

d ar

ea b

urnt

by

fore

st fi

re h

as e

xpan

ded

by 1

3.3%

in 1

999-

2012

,-R

ecur

rent

dro

ught

and

dry

spe

lls a

ffect

neg

ativ

ely

the

fore

st b

iom

ass

accu

mul

atio

n an

d bi

omas

s an

nual

gro

wth

te

nd to

be

slow

er,

-For

est i

nsec

ts a

nd p

ests

tend

to c

over

mor

e ar

eas.

-In 2

050,

are

a af

fect

ed b

y ha

rmfu

l for

est

inse

cts

will

ex

pand

by

1.4–

13 ti

mes

hig

her

than

cur

rent

leve

l, -F

ores

t fire

will

cov

er m

ore

area

s by

512

thou

sand

hec

tare

in

203

0 w

ithou

t any

mea

sure

ag

ains

t fire

s,

-Are

as o

f the

hig

h m

ount

ains

an

d th

e fo

rest

ste

ppe

will

de

crea

se b

y 70

-80%

and

8-

41%

resp

ectiv

ely,

-P

erm

afro

st w

ill c

ontin

ue to

m

elt a

nd fo

rest

stri

ps b

orde

r in

the

high

mou

ntai

ns w

ould

shi

ft to

war

d th

e to

p of

mou

ntai

ns.

-For

est

man

agem

ent,

-Exp

and

fore

st

plan

tatio

ns.


18

Chapter 2

1.3

-Incr

ease

in a

vera

ge

tem

pera

ture

in th

e co

ld

seas

on,

-Dec

reas

ed n

umbe

r of

cold

day

s,

-Red

uced

pre

cipi

tatio

n in

war

m s

easo

n an

d in

crea

sed

evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n,-S

now

cov

er a

nd ic

e m

eltin

g oc

cur e

arlie

r an

d riv

er ic

e du

ratio

n ha

s sh

orte

ned,

-D

ecre

ased

ice

dept

h in

rive

rs,

-An

inte

nsity

of r

ainf

all

incr

ease

d.

Wat

er

reso

urce

s,gl

acie

r, pe

rmaf

rost

-Sur

face

wat

er re

gim

e is

bei

ng c

hang

ed. L

ake

area

s ar

e de

crea

sing

and

dry

ing

up s

mal

l lak

es, s

prin

gs a

nd e

ven

som

e riv

ers,

-N

egat

ive

mas

s ba

lanc

e an

d sh

rinka

ge o

f gla

cier

s oc

cur

and

tota

l gla

cier

are

a ha

s re

duce

d by

27.

8% in

last

70

year

s,-Ic

e th

ickn

ess

of ri

vers

, dra

inin

g fro

m g

laci

ers

has

incr

ease

d by

4oC

m a

nd c

onse

quen

tly d

urat

ion

of

ice

cove

r per

iod

has

incr

ease

d by

10-

20 d

ays

and

decr

ease

d its

wat

er te

mpe

ratu

re,

-Dur

atio

n of

ice

cove

r per

iod

and

ice

thic

knes

s ha

ve

decr

ease

d by

20

days

and

by

35cm

resp

ectiv

ely

in

rest

of r

iver

s dr

aini

ng fr

om n

o gl

acie

r are

as. W

ater

te

mpe

ratu

re h

as in

crea

sed

by 2

°C,

- A g

roun

d w

ater

tabl

e is

tend

ing

to d

ecre

ase.

-The

ave

rage

wat

er

tem

pera

ture

of t

he p

erio

d of

A

pril

to O

ctob

er w

ill in

crea

se b

y 3.

1-4.

2o C b

y 20

80,

-Riv

er ru

n-of

f wou

ld in

crea

se

by 8

-13

mm

in 2

080,

whi

le

pote

ntia

l eva

pora

tion

will

in

crea

se s

ever

al ti

mes

,-T

he a

nnua

l gla

cier

mel

t rat

e or

nar

rativ

e m

ass

bala

nce

will

in

crea

se b

y 67

% c

ompa

red

to

mel

t rat

e of

198

2-20

10 p

erio

d,-T

empe

ratu

res

in th

e gr

ound

de

pth

of 1

0 an

d 15

m h

ave

been

incr

easi

ng in

the

north

ern

perm

afro

st re

gion

and

it te

nds

to d

ecre

ase

and

disa

ppea

r in

the

sout

hern

regi

on o

f the

co

untry

.

-Con

stru

ctio

n of

w

ater

rese

rvoi

rs

for r

iver

flow

re

gula

tion,

-Inte

grat

ed

wat

er re

sour

ces

man

agem

ent

of ri

ver b

asin

s (W

ater

law

, 20

12).

1.4

-Inte

nsifi

ed a

tmos

pher

ic

phen

omen

a ca

used

by

conv

ectio

n,-R

e-cu

rren

t ano

mal

ies

of a

tmos

pher

ic

circ

ulat

ion.

Nat

ural

di

sast

ers

-Fre

quen

cy o

f dis

astro

us p

heno

men

a in

the

last

two

deca

des

wer

e co

mpa

red:

ann

ually

, abo

ut 7

5 ph

enom

ena

wer

e ob

serv

ed in

the

prev

ious

ten

year

s an

d it

has

doub

led

in th

e la

st d

ecad

e,

-Rap

id o

nset

phe

nom

ena

such

as

heav

y ra

in, fl

ash

flood

, stro

ng w

ind,

thun

ders

torm

, and

hai

l hav

e be

en

mor

e fre

quen

t and

inte

nse

and

econ

omic

loss

due

to

disa

ster

s ha

s do

uble

d,-F

requ

enci

es o

f dro

ught

and

dzu

d ar

e in

cres

ing

and

the

bigg

est d

dzud

occ

urre

d in

win

ters

of 2

002/

2003

and

20

09/2

010

whe

n G

DP

has

decr

ease

d by

at l

east

6%

, -A

bout

77.

8% o

f the

tota

l lan

d of

Mon

golia

has

ex

perie

nced

deg

rada

tion

and

dese

rtific

atio

n at

the

certa

in e

xten

t.

-Fre

quen

cy o

f atm

osph

eric

ha

zard

ous

phen

omen

a w

ill

incr

ease

by

23-6

0% th

an

curr

ent l

evel

in th

e m

iddl

e of

the

cent

ury,

-Liv

esto

ck lo

ss d

ue to

dro

ught

an

d dz

ud is

exp

ecte

d to

in

crea

se b

y 9.

4% in

205

0 w

hich

is

abo

ut 2

.1%

as

of 1

981-

2000

,-L

and

degr

adat

ion

and

dese

rtific

atio

n w

ould

lead

to

incr

ease

d ev

apot

rans

pira

tion

and

decr

ease

d ra

infa

ll as

a

resu

lt of

reve

rse

feed

back

m

echa

nism

.

-Ear

ly w

arni

ng

syst

em

of n

atur

al

disa

ster

s,-In

dex

base

d in

sura

nce,

-C

ontin

genc

y pl

an/ G

uide

line

for E

mer

genc

y E

vacu

atio

n.

19


2. M

ajor

soc

io-e

cono

mic

sec

tors

2.1

-Incr

ease

d w

inte

r pr

ecip

itatio

n,-F

requ

ent d

roug

hts

and

dzud

, -In

crea

sed

tem

pera

ture

and

ev

apot

rans

pira

tion

in w

arm

sea

son

and

decr

ease

d pr

ecip

itatio

n,-L

onge

r hot

spe

lls a

nd

heat

wav

es.

Ani

mal

hu

sban

dry

-Cur

rent

leve

l of a

nim

al lo

ss is

abo

ut 2

%

and

this

rate

has

incr

ease

d by

0.2

5% p

er

year

in th

e pe

riod

of 1

991-

2011

, -T

he a

vera

ge a

nim

al w

eigh

t has

de

crea

sed,

-P

astu

re p

rodu

ctio

n ha

s re

duce

d an

d nu

mbe

r of h

ot d

ays

whi

ch m

ake

graz

ing

diffi

cult

for l

ives

tock

hav

e in

crea

sed,

-Dat

es fo

r goa

t cas

hmer

e an

d sh

eep

woo

l sh

earin

g ha

ve a

dvan

ced

by 5

-10

days

,-In

the

last

yea

rs, 2

6 ne

w d

isea

ses,

8

re-o

ccur

ring

and

6 ex

tend

ing

dise

ases

of

ani

mal

s ha

ve b

een

reco

rded

in th

e co

untry

.

-Ani

mal

loss

es c

ause

d by

dro

ught

an

d dz

ud w

ill in

crea

se a

nd h

ave

been

es

timat

ed a

t 8.2

% a

nd 9

.4%

in 2

020

and

2050

resp

ectiv

ely,

-S

now

in w

inte

r is

pred

icte

d to

in

crea

se b

y 40

-50%

and

hea

vy s

now

w

ill c

ause

neg

ativ

e im

pact

on

graz

ing

and

decr

ease

d an

imal

wei

ght,

-Due

to a

nim

al w

eigh

t los

s, th

e to

tal m

eat p

rodu

ctio

n is

exp

ecte

d to

de

crea

se b

y 5.

4% in

205

0s,

-Pas

ture

wat

er s

uppl

ies

will

be

chal

leng

ing

beca

use

of d

ecre

ased

sm

all l

akes

and

wat

er p

onds

cau

sed

by in

tens

ified

dry

ness

.

-Impr

oved

ani

mal

br

eeds

,-R

egul

ate

and

man

age

anim

al

num

bers

in a

lignm

ent

with

pas

ture

car

ryin

g ca

paci

ty,

-Inte

grat

ion

of

tradi

tiona

l pas

tora

l liv

esto

ck w

ith

inte

nsifi

ed fa

rmin

g of

an

imal

s,-M

aint

ain

appr

opria

te

ratio

bet

wee

n ty

pes

of a

nim

als

and

herd

s co

mpo

sitio

n.

2.2

-Lon

ger h

ot s

pells

and

he

at w

aves

, -In

crea

sed

dryn

ess

and

decr

ease

d so

il m

oist

ure,

-Mor

e fre

quen

t dr

ough

ts.

Ara

ble

farm

ing

-Hot

spe

lls (a

bove

26o C

) inh

ibit

phot

osyn

thes

is p

roce

ss in

cro

ps a

nd

redu

ce p

rodu

ctio

n,-D

ryne

ss p

roce

ss h

as b

een

inte

nsifi

ed in

th

e ar

able

farm

ing

regi

on in

the

last

70

year

s. P

rodu

ctiv

e m

oist

ure

in 1

m la

yer o

f so

il ha

s re

duce

d by

abo

ut 3

0%,

-Alth

ough

, cum

ulat

ive

heat

has

bee

n su

ffici

ent,

moi

stur

e ha

s be

com

e la

ckin

g fo

r cro

p gr

owth

and

dev

elop

men

t.

-Res

ults

of D

SS

AT 4

.0 c

rop

prod

uctio

n m

odel

dem

onst

rate

d th

at w

heat

pro

duct

ion

per h

ecta

re is

es

timat

ed to

dec

reas

e by

13%

in th

e 20

30s.

-Incr

ease

drip

irr

igat

ion

syst

em

cove

rage

,-A

ppro

pria

te c

rop

rota

tion

syst

ems,

-Incr

ease

min

imum

til

lage

for c

rops

,-In

trodu

ce d

roug

ht

resi

stan

t cro

p va

rietie

s.


20

Chapter 2

2.3

-Lon

ger h

ot s

pells

and

he

at w

aves

,-In

tens

ified

hea

vy

rain

s,-L

onge

r gro

win

g se

ason

for c

rops

.

Hum

an h

ealth

-Car

diov

ascu

lar d

isea

se h

as in

crea

sed

in th

e la

st 3

1 ye

ars

(Bur

maa

jav

B. e

t al.,

20

10),

-Car

diov

ascu

lar d

isea

ses

case

s in

U

laan

baat

ar c

ity h

as in

crea

sed

whi

le

the

num

ber o

f hot

day

s ab

ove

30 o C

has

be

en in

crea

sed,

-A n

umbe

r of a

ffect

ed p

opul

atio

n by

na

tura

l dis

aste

rs te

nd to

incr

ease

.

-Cas

es o

f car

diov

ascu

lar d

isea

ses

will

con

tinue

to in

crea

se d

ue to

hot

sp

ells

and

hot

wav

es,

-Vec

tor-

born

e in

fect

ious

dis

ease

s w

ould

incr

ease

.

-Res

earc

h an

d de

velo

pmen

t (R

&D

) in

hea

lth c

are

syst

em fo

r clim

ate

rela

ted

mor

bidi

ty a

nd

mor

talit

y,

-Ear

ly w

arni

ng fr

om

hot s

pells

and

hot

w

aves

. 2.

4-In

crea

sed

num

ber

of in

cide

nts

of h

eavy

sn

ow a

nd ra

ins,

-Mor

e fre

quen

t stro

ng

snow

and

dus

t sto

rms.

Infra

stru

ctur

e-F

requ

ency

of e

xtre

me

even

ts a

nd th

eir

mag

nitu

de h

as in

crea

sed

sign

ifica

ntly

in

the

last

20

year

s.

-Incr

ease

d he

avy

rain

falls

and

flo

ods

will

cau

se d

amag

es to

road

s,

build

ings

, brid

ges

and

cons

truct

ions

th

ereb

y re

duci

ng th

eir u

sefu

l life

span

, -E

lect

ricity

tran

smis

sion

cab

les

and

syst

ems

can

be b

roke

n do

wn

by

heav

y sn

ow a

nd ic

e fre

ezes

,-F

lood

pro

tect

ion

cana

ls, h

ydro

pla

nt

cons

truct

ions

and

nor

mal

wor

king

re

gim

e ca

n be

dam

aged

by

wat

er

regi

me

chan

ges.

-Ren

ew c

onst

ruct

ion

andd

evis

e ap

prop

riate

tech

nica

l st

anda

rds,

-Impr

oved

des

igns

an

d re

trofit

s fo

r m

ore

resi

lient

in

frast

ruct

ure.

21


CHAPTER 3. REPORTING ON LONG-TERM AND NEAR-TERM ADAPTATION VISIONS, GOALS AND TARGETS

3.1. Adaptation goals and targets

Adaptation aims to increase adaptive capacity and to reduce risk and vulnerabilities of the most vulnerable sectors of Mongolia. Therefore, vision, goal and objectives have been defined as followed. Here, infrastructure and human health are not considered, because there is a lack of future impact study.

Vision of adaptation

Increased adaptive capacity to overcome negative impacts of climate change, and to strengthen the resilience of ecosystem and socio-economic sectors. The climate change adaptation aims to reduce risks and vulnerabilities for the following sectors:

• Animal husbandry aims to maintain ecosystem balance through improving pasture management.

• Arable farming aspires to meet the total national need in crops by reducing bare fallow and soil moisture loss, introducing medium and long-term maturity varieties of crops, increased irrigation with water saving technologies including snow, and rainwater harvesting.

• Water resources sector’s objectives are to expand state protected areas covering especially headwater areas of river basins, where 70% of total runoff are formed, to ensure proper use of water resources, and to strengthen integrated water resource management in river basins.

• Forest resource aims to reduce forest degradation, and to implement reforestation and sustainable forest management strategies.

• Natural disaster management seeks to build effective disaster management to prevent environmental and socio-economic losses.

3.1.1. National and sectoral adaptation goals and targets

Adaptation goals and targets for each sector have been defined based on outcomes, process and needs (Table 3.1).


22

Chapter 3

Tab

le 3

.1. N

atio

nal a

nd s

ecto

ral a

dapt

atio

n go

als

and

targ

ets

Goa

ls ty

pes

Leve

lTa

rget

sTi

mef

ram

e

1. A

nim

al h

usba

ndry

and

pas

ture

Pro

cess

bas

ed

Nat

iona

l -R

educ

e pa

stur

e de

grad

atio

n th

roug

h re

gula

ting

head

coun

ts o

f ani

mal

and

mat

chin

g ca

rryi

ng c

apac

ity:

• Cre

ate

a le

gal e

nviro

nmen

t and

form

ulat

e pa

stur

e la

w fo

r pas

ture

rela

tions

regu

latio

n.

-Dev

elop

inte

nsifi

ed a

nd tr

aditi

onal

live

stoc

k in

inte

grat

ed a

nd c

ombi

ned

way

s:• F

orm

ulat

e po

licy

to d

evel

op tr

aditi

onal

pas

tora

l liv

esto

ck in

the

wes

tern

and

the

Gob

i des

ert r

egio

ns

and

grad

ual a

dvan

ce to

inte

nsifi

ed a

nd in

dust

rial f

arm

ing

in th

e ot

her r

egio

ns.

2018

-202

5

Sec

tora

l -S

et u

p ta

xatio

n m

echa

nism

for p

astu

re u

sage

dep

endi

ng o

n an

imal

type

and

regi

onal

con

text

and

use

fin

anci

al re

sour

ces

for p

astu

re im

prov

emen

t act

ions

: • A

t lea

st 7

0% o

f the

abo

ve m

entio

ned

reve

nue

shou

ld b

e sp

ent f

or p

astu

re re

stor

atio

n.• I

mpr

ove

loca

l leve

l coo

rdin

atio

n m

echa

nism

for a

nim

al m

igra

ting

from

oth

er s

oum

s fo

r bet

ter p

astu

re.

2020

-202

5

Nee

ds b

ased

N

atio

nal

-Cap

acity

bui

ldin

g an

d aw

aren

ess

rais

ing

cam

paig

ns o

n po

licie

s an

d gu

idel

ines

abo

ut p

astu

re c

arry

ing

capa

city

, for

age

capa

city

and

goo

d pr

actic

es fo

r pas

ture

:• I

ncre

ase

citiz

en p

artic

ipat

ion

in u

sage

and

impr

ovem

ent f

or n

atur

al g

reen

pas

ture

of M

ongo

lia.

• Bui

ld c

apac

ity o

f pas

ture

spe

cial

ists

and

exp

erts

and

re-tr

ain

them

.• D

evel

op p

astu

re m

anag

emen

t cou

rses

and

incl

ude

in th

e cu

rric

ulum

for a

gric

ultu

re s

peci

alis

ts

train

ing

of re

late

d un

iver

sitie

s an

d in

stitu

tes.

2018

-202

5

Sec

tora

l-M

aint

ain

and

cont

rol n

umbe

r of a

nim

als

and

herd

s co

mpo

sitio

n ac

cord

ing

to lo

cal p

astu

re c

apac

ity a

nd c

onte

xt:

• Tra

in h

erde

rs a

nd lo

cal s

peci

alis

ts a

bout

pas

ture

con

ditio

n an

d pr

actic

es fo

r app

ropr

iate

usa

ge in

al

ignm

ent w

ith c

arry

ing

capa

city

of p

astu

re.

• Dev

elop

gui

delin

es fo

r coo

rdin

atio

n of

ani

mal

s an

d lo

cal p

astu

re c

arry

ing

capa

city

and

pro

vide

te

chni

cal s

uppo

rt.

• Im

prov

e m

arke

t acc

ess

at n

atio

nal a

nd in

tern

atio

nal m

eat p

rodu

ctio

n.• P

rovi

de te

chni

cal s

uppo

rt an

d re

com

men

datio

ns fo

r res

torin

g tra

ditio

nal b

est p

ract

ices

and

m

aint

aini

ng h

erds

com

posi

tion

in a

lignm

ent w

ith p

astu

re c

ondi

tion.

2020

-203

0

23


2. A

rabl

e fa

rmin

g

Out

com

e ba

sed

Nat

iona

l-In

crea

se c

rop

prod

uctio

n to

fulfi

l nat

iona

l con

sum

ptio

n fo

r cro

ps (e

xcep

t sug

ar p

lant

s an

d ric

e) th

roug

h pr

otec

tion

of s

oil f

ertil

ity:

• Soi

l moi

stur

e m

aint

enan

ce, r

educ

ing

bare

fallo

w a

rea

dow

n to

30%

, app

lyin

g pr

oper

irrig

atio

n m

etho

ds

and

wat

er s

avin

g te

chno

logi

es; a

nd s

uppl

y an

d pr

oduc

e an

imal

fora

ges.

• Red

uce

soil

degr

adat

ion

by a

t lea

st 4

0%; r

e-us

age

of a

ll ab

ando

ned

agric

ultu

re la

nd.

• Inc

reas

e irr

igat

ed c

ropl

and

and

redu

ce p

rodu

ctio

n va

riatio

ns b

y 40

% fo

r cer

eals

and

60%

for

vege

tabl

es.

• Inc

reas

e irr

igat

ed a

reas

by

2-2.

5 tim

es th

an c

urre

nt le

vel;

appl

y w

ater

sav

ing

tech

nolo

gies

in a

t lea

st

50%

of p

otat

o pl

antin

g an

d in

70%

of f

ruit

bush

es a

nd tr

ee p

lant

atio

ns a

nd re

duce

wat

er u

sage

by

50%

in

ara

ble

farm

ing.

2018

-203

0

Nee

ds b

ased

S

ecto

ral

-Incr

ease

ann

ual c

rop

prod

uctio

n at

leve

l of 1

00 th

ousa

nd to

nnes

of m

illet

, oil

plan

ts a

nd ry

e fo

r eac

h an

d 30

th

ousa

nd to

nnes

of b

eans

and

pea

s fo

r foo

d to

mee

t pop

ulat

ion

cons

umpt

ion:

• Inc

reas

e ty

pes

of c

rops

for r

otat

ion

syst

em.

• Stre

ngth

en a

nd s

uppo

rt sp

ecia

lized

ent

ities

who

man

ufac

ture

and

impo

rt ag

ricul

ture

mac

hine

ry,

equi

pmen

t, fe

rtiliz

ers

and

crop

pro

tect

ion

prod

ucts

.• I

ntro

duce

win

ter c

rops

suc

h as

whe

at a

nd ry

e in

ord

er to

redu

ce re

lianc

e on

onl

y su

mm

er c

rops

.• I

ntro

duce

sno

w w

ater

har

vest

ing

tech

nolo

gies

in o

rder

to e

nsur

e su

stai

nabl

e ha

rves

ting.

• Exp

and

prod

uctio

n of

fora

ge p

lant

s, o

il an

d le

gum

es fo

r foo

d as

wel

l as

fora

ges

at le

ast t

wic

e th

an th

e cu

rren

t lev

el.

•Est

ablis

h br

anch

es o

f Pro

mot

ion

Fund

of A

rabl

e Fa

rmin

g (P

FAF)

in th

e ea

ster

n an

d th

e w

este

rn

agric

ultu

re re

gion

s an

d st

orag

e co

mpl

exes

with

a c

apac

ity o

f 70-

150

thou

sand

tonn

es fo

r Sta

te

Res

erve

s of

cer

eals

.

2020

-203

0

3. W

ater

reso

urce

s

Out

com

e ba

sed

Nat

iona

l-M

aint

ain

avai

labi

lity

of w

ater

reso

urce

s th

roug

h pr

otec

tion

of ru

n-of

f for

mat

ion

zone

s an

d th

eir n

ativ

e ec

osys

tem

s in

rive

r bas

ins:

• Inc

reas

e st

ate

prot

ecte

d ar

eas

up to

25-

30%

of t

he to

tal t

errit

ory

incl

udin

g up

stre

am a

rea

of ri

vers

in

orde

r to

mai

ntai

n na

tura

l eco

syst

ems

and

wat

er re

sour

ces

and

ensu

re s

usta

inab

le fi

nanc

ial m

echa

nism

.

2020

-203

0

Sec

tora

l-In

trodu

ce w

ater

sav

ing

and

wat

er tr

eatm

ent t

echn

olog

ies.

2020

-203

0C

ross

cut

ting

risks

and

im

pact

s

-To

enha

nce

hydr

olog

ical

and

wat

er q

ualit

y m

onito

ring

syst

ems

and

serv

ices

thro

ugh

intro

duci

ng a

dvan

ced

mon

itorin

g te

chni

ques

:• T

o es

tabl

ish

flood

and

wat

er s

horta

ge e

arly

war

ning

sys

tem

and

pro

tect

ion,

wat

er a

lloca

ting

infra

stru

ctur

es to

enh

ance

risk

man

agem

ent.

2020

-203

0


24

Chapter 3

Pro

cess

ba

sed

Nat

iona

l-In

tegr

ated

wat

er re

sour

ce m

anag

emen

t and

mul

ti-st

akeh

olde

r inv

olve

men

t will

be

enha

nced

thro

ugh

impr

oved

lega

l pol

icie

s, e

ffici

ent m

anag

emen

t and

cap

acity

bui

ldin

g:• I

mpl

emen

tatio

n of

Inte

grat

ed w

ater

reso

urce

s m

anag

emen

t pro

gram

mes

and

pla

ns in

29

river

bas

ins.

2020

-202

5

Sec

tora

l-T

o co

nduc

t fea

sibi

lity

stud

ies

for t

he c

onst

ruct

ion

of h

ydro

pow

er s

tatio

ns a

t Sel

enge

(380

MW

), E

g (3

15M

W)

and

Ork

hon

(100

MW

) riv

ers

and

poss

ible

impl

emen

tatio

ns.

2020

-202

5

Cro

ss c

uttin

g ris

ks a

nd

impa

cts

-Con

duct

det

aile

d as

sess

men

t of w

ater

reso

urce

s in

the

mos

t vul

nera

ble

regi

ons

to c

limat

e ch

ange

; alig

n th

e re

gion

al a

nd s

ecto

ral d

evel

opm

ent p

olic

ies

and

plan

ning

and

impl

emen

t eco

syst

em b

ased

ada

ptat

ion

stra

tegi

es in

rive

r bas

ins

• Im

prov

e ec

osys

tem

ser

vice

s th

roug

h ta

king

mea

sure

s fo

r wat

er a

lloca

tion

to d

ryin

g la

kes,

loca

ted

in

flood

plai

n ar

eas

and

refo

rest

atio

n; fa

cilit

ate

awar

enes

s ra

isin

g ab

out b

enefi

ts a

nd re

sults

to p

ublic

and

in

crea

se fu

ndin

g fo

r nat

ure

cons

erva

tion

and

rest

orat

ion

by a

t lea

st 2

0%.

• Con

stru

ctio

n of

wat

er re

serv

oirs

of 2

0 cu

b.km

for h

arve

stin

g gl

acie

r mel

t wat

er in

Alta

i Mts

. and

rive

r w

ater

in A

rctic

rive

r bas

in in

Mon

golia

.

2020

-202

5

Nee

ds b

ased

Nat

iona

l-Im

prov

e w

ater

sup

ply

• Wat

er re

gula

tions

of r

iver

s (O

rkho

n, S

elen

ge, T

uul,

Kho

vd, B

ulga

n, K

halk

h, O

non,

Eg,

Kha

rkhi

raa,

Tu

rgen

, Shi

shkh

ed, E

roo,

Kha

raa,

Tam

ir an

d B

ogd

river

s), c

onst

ruct

ion

of w

ater

rese

rvoi

rs a

nd c

ondu

ct

stud

ies

on p

ossi

bilit

ies

to tr

ansf

er w

ater

to c

over

wat

er d

eman

d in

dry

regi

ons.

• Im

prov

ed w

ater

sup

ply

focu

sed

on b

eing

90%

and

san

itatio

n w

ill b

e 60

% o

f tot

al p

opul

atio

n.

• Con

stru

ctio

n of

wat

er p

onds

of 2

5.0

mln

cub

.m fo

r irr

igat

ion

of 1

0,00

0 ha

of c

ropl

and.

• T

o im

prov

e w

ater

sup

ply

to c

over

wat

er d

eman

d fo

r Ula

anba

atar

city

, ind

ustri

es in

the

Gob

i reg

ion

(coa

l m

inin

g of

Shi

vee-

Ovo

o an

d Ta

van

Tolg

oi, c

oal p

roce

ssin

g fa

ctor

y in

Cho

ir an

d N

yalg

a) a

nd o

ther

food

an

d co

nstru

ctio

n in

dust

ries.

2020

-203

0

Cro

ss c

uttin

g ris

ks a

nd

impa

cts

-Enc

oura

ge to

uris

m d

evel

opm

ent (

hiki

ng, b

ikin

g an

d ex

trem

e to

uris

ms)

and

requ

ired

infra

stru

ctur

e in

bas

ins

vuln

erab

le to

clim

ate

chan

ge a

nd w

ith h

igh

risks

of a

gric

ultu

re a

nd li

vest

ock

bree

ding

.20

20-2

030

4. F

ores

try

Out

com

e ba

sed

Nat

iona

l-In

crea

se a

rea

cove

red

by fo

rest

up

to 8

.3%

. -R

educ

e fo

rest

fire

affe

cted

are

as b

y 30

%.

-Set

ting

up m

onito

ring

and

cont

rolli

ng s

yste

m o

f for

est p

ests

and

inse

cts

whi

ch c

over

at l

east

60-

90%

in

affe

cted

are

as.

-For

est c

lear

ing

logs

/act

iviti

es w

ill b

e co

nduc

ted

in 3

0 th

ousa

nd h

a in

ord

er to

incr

ease

esp

ecia

lly re

lativ

ely

youn

g fo

rest

pro

duct

ion.

2020

-203

0

25


Pro

cess

ba

sed

Sec

tora

l-In

crea

se a

rea

of fo

rest

and

con

duct

refo

rest

atio

n ac

tiviti

es th

roug

h tre

e nu

rser

y us

ing

high

qua

lity

tree

seed

s an

d se

edlin

gs re

sist

ant t

o dr

ough

ts a

nd d

ryne

ss a

nd tr

ee p

lant

atio

ns in

def

ores

ted

area

s.-P

rote

ct fo

rest

s, it

s ec

osys

tem

s an

d bi

olog

ical

div

ersi

ties

from

hum

an in

appr

opria

te a

ctiv

ities

, for

est fi

res,

in

sect

s an

d di

seas

es a

nd re

duce

the

rate

of d

efor

esta

tion.

-Incr

ease

fore

st p

rodu

ctio

n th

roug

h pl

anta

tions

, cle

aran

ce a

nd n

urse

ry a

ctio

ns, a

nd s

usta

inab

le

man

agem

ent i

n or

der t

o m

aint

ain

prop

er c

ompo

sitio

n an

d de

nsity

ada

pted

to c

limat

e ch

ange

.-Im

prov

e fo

rest

reso

urce

usa

ge th

roug

h en

viro

nmen

t frie

ndly

tech

nolo

gies

and

man

agem

ent f

or lo

cal

cont

ext a

nd w

ood

prod

uctio

n ef

ficie

ncy.

-Im

plem

ent p

hase

d pr

ojec

ts a

nd p

rogr

amm

es to

redu

ce G

HG

em

issi

ons

caus

ed b

y fo

rest

dec

reas

e an

d de

grad

atio

n.-F

ully

impl

emen

t for

est s

usta

inab

le m

anag

emen

t thr

ough

sam

plin

g an

d gr

adua

l log

ging

met

hods

.

2020

-203

0

5. N

atur

al d

isas

ter m

anag

emen

t

Pro

cess

ba

sed

Nat

iona

l-E

nsur

e ef

fect

ive

disa

ster

risk

redu

ctio

n an

d re

spon

se s

yste

m th

roug

h m

ulti-

stak

ehol

der a

nd c

ross

-leve

l in

tegr

atio

n an

d co

ordi

natio

n.20

18-2

025

Cro

ss c

uttin

g im

pact

s an

d ris

ks

-Impr

ove

coor

dina

tion

of k

ey s

take

hold

ers

thro

ugh

real

tim

e an

d re

liabl

e da

ta a

nd in

form

atio

n sh

arin

g.20

18-2

020

Sec

tora

l-S

treng

then

pol

icie

s, s

yste

ms,

cap

acity

and

reso

urce

s to

ens

ure

bette

r res

ilien

ce to

ove

rcom

e di

sast

ers.

20

18-2

025

Nee

ds b

ased

Sec

tora

l-E

nsur

e pr

oper

dec

isio

n m

akin

g in

a ti

mel

y m

anne

r usi

ng re

al-ti

me

and

relia

ble

info

rmat

ion

base

d on

the

asse

ssm

ent o

f haz

ards

and

vul

nera

bilit

ies.

20

20-2

030

-Ens

ure

impl

emen

tatio

n of

dis

aste

r ris

k re

duct

ion

and

man

agem

ent a

ctiv

ities

at n

atio

nal t

o lo

cal l

evel

s.20

20-2

030


26

Chapter 3

3.1.2. Prioritization of adaptation goals and targets

Sectors, adaptation goals and targets were prioritized based on impacts, urgency and likelihood defined in Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scores were given by sector experts in discussions (see Annex 1). This prioritization is an integrated analysis of adaptation goals and targets considering adaptation needs and reasons based on future impacts and risks assessment.

3.1.3. Adaptation-mitigation benefits

Adaptation actvities under the goal and target may lead to the reduction in GHG emissions/sink as mitigation co-benefits and maintain ecosystem balance as keeping resilience and adaptive capacity. Table 3.2 shows possible co-benefits in different sectors.

In general, carbon sinks of natural ecosystems will be increased with a capacity to absorb almost a half of the CO2 emissions from the energy sector in the country by implementing adaptation policies in agriculture, forestry, and water resource sectors.

Table 3.2. Possible adaptation co-benefits

Sector Adaptation activities Possible co-benefits

Livestock and pasture (land use)

Reducing pasture degradation through sustainable pasture management.

The sector targets to 29 million tonnes CO2 or 1/3 of GHG emission reduction per year through applying effective regulation of animals headcounts based on pasture carrying capacity and improved pasture management.

Forest Applying forest sustainable management, increase forest area up to 9% and reduce forest fire affected areas by 30%.

Increase forest carbon sink and reduce GHG emissions due to the fire by 2-5%.

Arable farming Reduce bare soil fallow down up to 30% in /rain-fed/ none irrigated cropland through increasing species crops, zero tillage and crop rotation.

This practice exacerbates the loss of soil organic decomposition and increases carbon sink.

Water Increase state protected areas up to 25-30% of the total territory.

Maintain natural wild ecosystems and water resources.

27


CHAPTER 4. CURRENT AND PLANNED ADAPTATION UNDERTAKINGS AND SUPPORT

Current and planned (until 2021) adaptation undertakings and support aim to maintain long-term ecological balance and to ensure streamlining economic and social development in alignment with climate change through reducing risks and vulnerabilities and improving adaptive capacity. Therefore, necessary adaptation undertakings have been included in National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) as cross-cutting actions and in strategies and plans, especially for vulnerable sectors.

In the following sections, current and planned undertakings and supports are summarized (Table 4.1 to 4.3).

4.1. Financial


28

Chapter 4

Tab

le 4

.1. I

mpl

emen

tatio

n of

clim

ate

chan

ge a

dapt

atio

n un

derta

king

s an

d su

ppor

ts

Sec

tor

Cur

rent

and

pla

nned

un

derta

king

s S

trate

gy o

r P

rogr

amm

e na

me

Cur

rent

sta

tus

of im

plem

enta

tion

Res

ourc

e an

d fu

ndin

g

Nat

iona

lIn

tern

atio

nal

Live

stoc

k an

d pa

stur

e

To c

oord

inat

e a

num

ber

of a

nim

als

and

herd

s co

mpo

sitio

n al

igne

d w

ith

past

ure

carr

ying

cap

aciti

es a

t re

gion

al le

vels

.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

Gov

ernm

ent h

as p

ropo

sed

amen

dmen

ts in

Law

of

Mon

golia

on

Land

and

dev

elop

ed g

uide

lines

for p

astu

re

land

usa

ge ta

xatio

n ba

sed

on th

e nu

mbe

r of a

nim

als,

ty

pes

and

regi

onal

con

text

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

To e

nsur

e an

effe

ctiv

e co

ordi

natio

n of

pas

ture

us

age

and

rese

rve

at

leas

t 10%

pas

ture

for o

tor

mov

emen

t at p

rovi

ncia

l and

lo

cal l

evel

s w

hich

can

be

used

dur

ing

disa

ster

s.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

Ther

e ar

e 7

site

s of

rese

rve

otor

pas

ture

for a

spe

cial

pu

rpos

e at

pro

vinc

ial l

evel

s w

hich

occ

upy

679

thou

sand

ha

or 0

.6%

of t

he to

tal p

astu

rela

nd. A

t sou

m (c

ount

ry

subd

ivis

ion)

leve

ls, t

here

is 1

.8 m

illio

n ha

pas

ture

whi

ch

can

be u

sed

as re

serv

e pa

stur

e du

ring

disa

ster

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

To u

se e

nviro

nmen

t, hu

man

an

d an

imal

-frie

ndly

and

ad

vanc

ed te

chno

logi

es

agai

nst p

astu

re in

sect

s an

d ro

dent

s.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

Eve

ry y

ear,

the

Gov

ernm

ent b

udge

ts 1

mill

ion

US

D

and

faci

litat

e en

viro

nmen

t frie

ndly

mea

sure

s ba

sed

on

mon

itorin

g an

d su

rvey

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

To c

ondu

ct w

ater

sur

vey

and

expl

orat

ion

base

d on

lo

cal h

erde

rs in

itiat

ives

and

es

tabl

ish

wat

er w

ells

with

w

ater

rese

rvoi

rs.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

In th

e re

cent

yea

rs, a

lmos

t 100

0 w

ater

wel

ls w

ere

esta

blis

hed

by th

e G

over

nmen

t bud

get a

nd in

tern

atio

nal

proj

ects

fund

ing

and

hand

ed o

ver t

o he

rder

s gr

oups

. In

the

step

pe re

gion

, ren

ewab

le e

nerg

y, li

ke s

olar

and

w

ind,

are

bei

ng u

sed

for g

roun

d w

ells

ope

ratio

ns w

hich

ar

e fin

anci

ally

effi

cien

t to

save

fuel

s an

d en

viro

nmen

t-fri

endl

y.

Gov

ernm

ent

Inte

rnat

iona

l pr

ojec

ts

Live

stoc

k an

d pa

stur

e

To b

reed

hig

h pr

oduc

tion

cattl

e to

incr

ease

mea

t pr

oduc

tion

and

ultim

atel

y to

redu

ce th

e nu

mbe

r of

past

oral

ani

mal

in w

inte

r.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

In 2

012,

mea

t pro

duct

ion

cattl

e an

d sh

eep

have

sta

rted

to b

reed

in 1

0 so

ums

and

abou

t 120

0 ca

ttle

of h

igh

prod

uctio

n w

ere

impo

rted

from

Fra

nce

and

Ger

man

y.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

29


Live

stoc

k an

d pa

stur

e

To in

trodu

ce m

oder

n, a

dvan

ced

tech

nolo

gies

in p

asto

ral a

nim

al

husb

andr

y an

d he

rder

s liv

elih

ood,

to

scal

e up

trad

ition

al b

est p

ract

ices

, to

impl

emen

t pro

ject

s an

d pr

ogra

mm

es

whi

ch a

im to

adv

ocat

e fo

r life

styl

es

and

man

agem

ent s

kills

alig

ned

with

ec

osys

tem

cha

nges

and

clim

ate

chan

ges

and

to ra

ise

publ

ic a

war

enes

s an

d tra

inin

gs.

“Nat

iona

l S

ecur

ity

Con

cept

”, 20

10

Sev

eral

inte

rnat

iona

l pro

ject

s ha

ve b

een

impl

emen

ted

in o

rder

to d

evel

op c

limat

e ch

ange

ad

apta

tion

know

ledg

e an

d sk

ills,

to im

prov

e pa

stur

e m

anag

emen

t, to

enc

oura

ge to

trad

ition

al b

est

prac

tices

and

mod

ern

adva

nced

met

hods

. As

a re

sult

one

third

of h

erde

rs h

ouse

hold

s ha

ve jo

ined

he

rder

s vo

lunt

ary

grou

ps a

nd a

ttend

ed in

trai

ning

s an

d aw

aren

ess

cam

paig

ns.

-

Wor

ld B

ank

(WB

), A

sian

D

evel

opm

ent

Ban

k (A

DB

), Fo

od a

nd

Agr

icul

ture

O

rgan

izat

ion

(FA

O),

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Mill

enni

um

Cha

lleng

e A

ccou

nt

(US

MC

A)

and

Sw

iss

Age

ncy

for

Dev

elop

men

t an

d C

oope

ratio

n (S

DC

) pro

ject

s To

ext

end

past

ure

and

dese

rtific

atio

n m

onito

ring

syst

em, t

o co

nduc

t sy

stem

atic

pas

ture

pes

ts a

nd in

sect

s ob

serv

atio

n an

d to

dev

elop

gui

delin

es

for p

astu

re h

ealth

ass

essm

ent.

The

first

ph

ase

of

NA

PC

C,

(201

1-20

16)

Nat

iona

l Age

ncy

for M

eteo

rolo

gy, H

ydro

logy

, E

nviro

nmen

t and

Mon

itorin

g ha

s im

plem

ente

d pr

ojec

ts fu

nded

by

dono

r age

ncie

s an

d te

chni

cal

guid

elin

e fo

r pas

ture

and

soi

l mon

itorin

g w

hich

is

done

at a

bout

150

0 po

ints

of t

he n

atio

nal m

onito

ring

netw

ork.

The

dat

abas

e ha

s be

en e

stab

lishe

d an

d N

atio

nal P

astu

re S

tatu

s ha

s be

en re

porte

d an

nual

ly. G

over

nmen

t40

0 th

ousa

nd

US

D fr

om

inte

rnat

iona

l pr

ojec

ts

To p

lan

popu

latio

n se

ttlem

ents

in

acco

rdan

ce w

ith c

limat

e ch

ange

, re

gion

al n

atur

al re

sour

ces

and

thei

r ca

paci

ties

to re

cove

r

“Gre

en

Dev

elop

men

t P

olic

y”,

(201

4-20

30)

“New

sou

m” p

roje

ct h

as s

tarte

d to

be

impl

emen

ted

in s

oum

cen

tres

to c

onst

ruct

inte

grat

ed g

over

nmen

t bu

ildin

gs w

ith c

entra

l hea

ting

and

wat

er s

yste

ms,

to

pro

vide

opp

ortu

nitie

s to

hav

e an

acc

ess

to w

ater

an

d sa

nita

tion

faci

litie

s fo

r hou

seho

lds

and

to

esta

blis

h gr

een

gard

ens

and

area

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

Sec

tor

Cur

rent

and

pla

nned

un

derta

king

s S

trate

gy o

r P

rogr

amm

e na

me

Cur

rent

sta

tus

of im

plem

enta

tion

Res

ourc

e an

d fu

ndin

g

Nat

iona

lIn

tern

atio

nal

Live

stoc

k an

d pa

stur

e

To c

oord

inat

e a

num

ber

of a

nim

als

and

herd

s co

mpo

sitio

n al

igne

d w

ith

past

ure

carr

ying

cap

aciti

es a

t re

gion

al le

vels

.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

Gov

ernm

ent h

as p

ropo

sed

amen

dmen

ts in

Law

of

Mon

golia

on

Land

and

dev

elop

ed g

uide

lines

for p

astu

re

land

usa

ge ta

xatio

n ba

sed

on th

e nu

mbe

r of a

nim

als,

ty

pes

and

regi

onal

con

text

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

To e

nsur

e an

effe

ctiv

e co

ordi

natio

n of

pas

ture

us

age

and

rese

rve

at

leas

t 10%

pas

ture

for o

tor

mov

emen

t at p

rovi

ncia

l and

lo

cal l

evel

s w

hich

can

be

used

dur

ing

disa

ster

s.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

Ther

e ar

e 7

site

s of

rese

rve

otor

pas

ture

for a

spe

cial

pu

rpos

e at

pro

vinc

ial l

evel

s w

hich

occ

upy

679

thou

sand

ha

or 0

.6%

of t

he to

tal p

astu

rela

nd. A

t sou

m (c

ount

ry

subd

ivis

ion)

leve

ls, t

here

is 1

.8 m

illio

n ha

pas

ture

whi

ch

can

be u

sed

as re

serv

e pa

stur

e du

ring

disa

ster

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

To u

se e

nviro

nmen

t, hu

man

an

d an

imal

-frie

ndly

and

ad

vanc

ed te

chno

logi

es

agai

nst p

astu

re in

sect

s an

d ro

dent

s.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

Eve

ry y

ear,

the

Gov

ernm

ent b

udge

ts 1

mill

ion

US

D

and

faci

litat

e en

viro

nmen

t frie

ndly

mea

sure

s ba

sed

on

mon

itorin

g an

d su

rvey

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

To c

ondu

ct w

ater

sur

vey

and

expl

orat

ion

base

d on

lo

cal h

erde

rs in

itiat

ives

and

es

tabl

ish

wat

er w

ells

with

w

ater

rese

rvoi

rs.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

In th

e re

cent

yea

rs, a

lmos

t 100

0 w

ater

wel

ls w

ere

esta

blis

hed

by th

e G

over

nmen

t bud

get a

nd in

tern

atio

nal

proj

ects

fund

ing

and

hand

ed o

ver t

o he

rder

s gr

oups

. In

the

step

pe re

gion

, ren

ewab

le e

nerg

y, li

ke s

olar

and

w

ind,

are

bei

ng u

sed

for g

roun

d w

ells

ope

ratio

ns w

hich

ar

e fin

anci

ally

effi

cien

t to

save

fuel

s an

d en

viro

nmen

t-fri

endl

y.

Gov

ernm

ent

Inte

rnat

iona

l pr

ojec

ts

Live

stoc

k an

d pa

stur

e

To b

reed

hig

h pr

oduc

tion

cattl

e to

incr

ease

mea

t pr

oduc

tion

and

ultim

atel

y to

redu

ce th

e nu

mbe

r of

past

oral

ani

mal

in w

inte

r.

“Mon

golia

n Li

vest

ock”

Nat

iona

l P

rogr

amm

e,

(201

0-20

21)

In 2

012,

mea

t pro

duct

ion

cattl

e an

d sh

eep

have

sta

rted

to b

reed

in 1

0 so

ums

and

abou

t 120

0 ca

ttle

of h

igh

prod

uctio

n w

ere

impo

rted

from

Fra

nce

and

Ger

man

y.

Gov

ernm

ent

-


30

Chapter 4

Ara

ble

farm

ing

To in

trodu

ce a

dvan

ced

agric

ultu

ral a

nd w

ater

sa

ving

tech

nolo

gies

and

to

esta

blis

h fo

rest

pro

tect

ion

strip

s in

ord

er to

impr

ove

soil

ferti

lity

and

re-s

tore

soi

ls, t

o pr

oduc

e an

d m

eet n

atio

nal

cons

umpt

ion

of c

erea

ls a

nd

vege

tabl

es, a

nd to

re-u

se

at le

ast 7

0% o

f aba

ndon

ed

crop

land

.

“Gre

en

Dev

elop

men

t P

olic

y”, (

2014

-203

0)

As

of 2

015,

the

tota

l cro

plan

d ha

s be

en a

ccou

nted

750

th

ousa

nd h

a in

clud

ing

450

thou

sand

re-u

sed

aban

done

d cr

opla

nd. T

here

is s

till a

qui

te b

ig a

mou

nt o

f aba

ndon

ed

crop

land

. Th

e G

over

nmen

t tho

ugh

Agr

icul

ture

Sup

port

Fund

ha

s gi

ven

soft

loan

s to

farm

ers

for w

heat

see

ds, f

uels

, so

il an

d cr

op p

rote

ctio

n pr

oduc

ts w

ith re

paym

ent a

fter

harv

estin

g an

d ag

ricul

tura

l mac

hine

ry w

ith a

repa

ymen

t te

rm o

f 3-5

yea

rs.

6.5

mln

U

SD

spe

nt

for s

oft

loan

s by

the

Gov

ernm

ent

1.5

mln

U

SD

from

G

over

nmen

t of

Chi

na

To re

-use

the

aban

done

d cr

opla

nd (a

bout

940

th

ousa

nd h

a) in

ord

er to

in

crea

se p

rodu

ctio

n of

whe

at

flour

, pot

ato

and

vege

tabl

es

to fu

lly m

eet n

atio

nal

cons

umpt

ion

dem

and.

“3rd c

ampa

ign

of

crop

pro

duct

ion”

, (2

008-

2010

)

As

a re

sult

of th

e ca

mpa

ign,

farm

ers

and

farm

ing

com

pani

es g

ot s

oft l

oan

for f

uels

, cer

eal s

eeds

an

d im

porte

d an

d eq

uipm

ents

and

pai

d ba

ck a

fter

harv

ests

. Con

sequ

ently

, cro

p pr

oduc

tion

has

incr

ease

d si

gnifi

cant

ly a

nd 1

00%

of w

heat

and

pot

ato

have

bee

n pr

oduc

ed lo

cally

and

57%

of v

eget

able

s ar

e pr

oduc

ed.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

To in

crea

se ir

rigat

ed

crop

land

in o

rder

to re

duce

ha

rves

t var

iatio

n by

20%

for

cere

als,

40%

for v

eget

able

s by

201

5 an

d to

redu

ce

irrig

atio

n w

ater

con

sum

ptio

n by

50%

in 2

021

thro

ugh

intro

duci

ng w

ater

effi

cien

t te

chno

logi

es.

NA

PC

C,

(201

1-20

21)

Drip

irrig

atio

n sy

stem

s ha

ve b

een

star

ted

to b

e us

ed

sinc

e 19

97 a

nd a

s of

201

5, th

ese

syst

ems

have

bee

n ap

plie

d to

280

ha o

f veg

etab

le fa

rms.

Mul

ches

wer

e st

arte

d to

be

in p

ract

ice

in 2

007

and

have

bee

n ap

plie

d to

50

ha o

f veg

etab

le fa

rms

as o

f 201

5.

The

Gov

ernm

ent p

rovi

des

hous

ehol

d sc

ale

irrig

atio

n eq

uipm

ent w

ith a

cap

acity

of 0

.5-1

.0ha

to fa

rmer

s fre

e of

ch

arge

. P

roje

cts

such

as”

Mon

golia

n po

tato

” and

des

ertifi

catio

n pr

ojec

ts s

uppl

ied

grai

n pr

oduc

ers

and

hous

ehol

d ga

rden

ers

with

drip

irrig

atio

n sy

stem

s an

d pl

astic

m

ulch

es.

Gov

ernm

ent

Gov

ernm

ent

of S

witz

erla

nd

31


Ara

ble

farm

ing

-To

deve

lop

irrig

ated

cr

op p

rodu

ctio

n th

roug

h in

crea

sing

irrig

atio

n sy

stem

s,

and

intro

duci

ng a

dvan

ced

tech

nolo

gies

suc

h as

drip

irr

igat

ion,

wat

er re

serv

oirs

an

d pr

ecip

itatio

n ha

rves

ting.

-To

cond

uct w

ater

reso

urce

su

rvey

, exp

lora

tion

for

crop

land

and

pas

ture

, des

ign

and

esta

blis

h w

ater

sys

tem

s th

roug

h pu

blic

-priv

ate

and

indi

vidu

al fu

ndin

g.

“Sta

te p

olic

y on

Foo

d an

d A

gric

ultu

re”,

2003

Gov

ernm

ent f

unds

abo

ut 3

0% o

f fina

nces

to re

nova

te

and

cons

truct

pub

lic a

nd p

rivat

e irr

igat

ion

and

wat

er

syst

ems

for c

ropl

and.

Irrig

ated

cro

plan

d in

crea

sed

by 7

.2

thou

sand

ha

than

in 2

005.

8.75

mln

U

SD

in

the

last

10

year

s by

the

Gov

ernm

ent

4.9

mln

US

D

Wat

er

reso

urce

To fo

rbid

min

eral

exp

lora

tion

and

expl

oita

tion

in 3

0%

area

s of

ups

tream

of r

iver

s w

here

at l

east

70%

of w

ater

an

d ru

n-of

f are

acc

umul

ated

.

“Law

to p

rohi

bit

min

ing

expl

orat

ion

and

expl

oita

tion

in a

reas

of u

pper

st

ream

s of

rive

rs

and

wat

er s

ourc

es

and

fore

stry

”, 20

09

As

of 2

014,

sta

te p

rote

cted

are

as re

ache

d up

to 1

7.4%

of

the

tota

l lan

d in

clud

ing

the

uppe

r stre

am o

f riv

ers

and

wat

er s

ourc

es in

ord

er to

mai

ntai

n w

ildliv

es a

nd

ecos

yste

ms

bala

nce.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

To im

prov

e w

ater

reso

urce

an

d us

age

man

agem

ent.

“Wat

er” N

atio

nal

Pro

gram

me,

(2

010-

2020

)

Inte

grat

ed w

ater

bas

in m

anag

emen

t pla

n ha

ve b

een

impl

emen

ted

for 7

rive

r bas

ins.

G

over

nmen

tIn

tern

atio

nal

proj

ects

To ta

ke e

cosy

stem

bas

ed

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res.

P

roje

ct o

f “E

cosy

stem

-bas

ed

Ada

ptat

ions

in

high

ly v

ulne

rabl

e riv

ers

basi

ns”,

(2

012-

2017

)

The

proj

ect i

s be

ing

impl

emen

ted

in K

harh

iraa-

Turg

en

river

s ba

sin

in th

e w

este

rn re

gion

and

Ulz

rive

r bas

in in

th

e ea

ster

n re

gion

and

aim

s to

stre

ngth

en n

atio

nal a

nd

loca

l ada

ptat

ion

capa

city

thro

ugh

cons

erva

tion

of ri

paria

n an

d ba

sin

ecos

yste

ms

in th

e ar

eas.

-

Ada

ptat

ion

Fund

for

Kyo

to

Pro

toco

l

Fore

stry

To im

prov

e fo

rest

sec

tor

man

agem

ent,

stru

ctur

e an

d co

ordi

natio

n sy

stem

s.

“Nat

iona

l For

estry

P

rogr

amm

e”,

(200

5-20

15)

Com

mun

ity-b

ased

fore

stry

reso

urce

man

agem

ent w

as

intro

duce

d an

d as

of t

oday

, abo

ut 2

0% o

f the

fore

sts

is

unde

r the

pro

tect

ion

of c

omm

unity

fore

stry

gro

ups.

Gov

ernm

ent

-


32

Chapter 4

Dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

tTo

inte

grat

e di

sast

er ri

sk re

duct

ion

into

clim

ate

chan

ge a

dapt

atio

n an

d su

stai

nabl

e de

velo

pmen

t.

Pla

n fo

r “S

tate

Pol

icy

on D

isas

ter

Pro

tect

ion”

an

d N

atio

nal

Pro

gram

me

for

Stre

ngth

enin

g D

isas

ter

Res

ilien

ce”,

(201

2-20

21)

Cer

tain

am

ount

of m

oney

is a

lloca

ted

to th

e G

over

nmen

t Res

erve

Fun

d fro

m th

e N

atio

nal

budg

et in

eve

ry y

ear.

For e

xam

ple,

25.

7 m

illio

n U

SD

w

as s

pent

from

this

Fun

d fo

r dis

aste

r rel

ief a

nd

reco

very

exp

endi

ture

in 2

013

and

2014

.

Gov

ernm

ent

-

33


4.2.

Cap

acit

y

Tab

le 4

.2. C

apac

ity o

f cur

rent

and

pla

nned

und

erta

king

s

Sec

tor

Indi

vidu

al le

vel

Inst

itutio

nal l

evel

Sys

tem

leve

l

Live

stoc

k an

d pa

stur

e-L

ocal

lead

ers,

her

ders

and

ot

her c

itize

ns h

ave

star

ted

to

real

ize

bene

fits

of a

dapt

atio

n un

derta

king

s.

-Loc

al c

omm

unity

pa

rtici

patio

n is

key

in th

e pa

stur

e us

age,

pro

tect

ion

and

coor

dina

tion

as s

ugge

sted

by

rela

ted

proj

ects

.

-“P

astu

re u

sage

con

tract

” was

in

itiat

ed b

y pa

stur

e m

anag

emen

t an

d he

rder

s liv

elih

ood

proj

ects

and

is

bei

ng d

evel

oped

by

past

ure

and

lives

tock

spe

cial

ists

.

-”P

astu

re L

aw” h

as b

een

draf

ted

and

disc

usse

d by

rela

ted

expe

rts a

nd m

embe

rs o

f the

Par

liam

ent,

but y

et h

as n

ot b

een

pass

ed. T

he b

ill w

as s

ubm

itted

in 2

011

to th

e P

arlia

men

t an

d su

rvey

pol

l fro

m 1

5,06

0 he

rder

s in

118

sou

ms

was

don

e ac

cord

ing

to th

e su

gges

tion

by th

e P

arlia

men

t. 68

% o

f the

tota

l pa

rtici

pant

s in

the

surv

ey a

gree

d se

para

te “P

astu

re L

aw” i

s re

quire

d (1

8% re

spon

ded

that

ther

e is

no

need

and

14%

they

do

n’t k

now

). B

ut th

e bi

ll w

as n

ot d

iscu

ssed

at t

he P

arlia

men

t. P

astu

re re

late

d ar

ticle

s w

ere

incl

uded

in th

e La

nd L

aw a

nd

subm

itted

to th

e P

arlia

men

t in

2013

. Yet

, am

endm

ents

in th

e La

nd L

aw a

gain

hav

e no

t bee

n di

scus

sed.

-P

astu

re la

w h

as b

een

unde

r an

unce

rtain

con

ditio

n, p

astu

re

rela

ted

artic

les

such

as

past

ure

usag

e ta

xatio

n, a

nd u

sing

fund

s fo

r pas

ture

con

serv

atio

n w

ere

incl

uded

in a

dra

ft of

the

“Ass

et

Law

” by

expe

rts a

nd g

over

nmen

t offi

cers

of r

elat

ed m

inis

tries

and

ag

enci

es fo

r the

Par

liam

ent d

iscu

ssio

ns.

Ara

ble

farm

ing

-Due

to re

mot

enes

s fro

m

mar

kets

and

lack

of h

uman

re

sour

ce a

nd te

chni

cal

capa

citie

s th

ere

is s

till s

ome

aban

done

d cr

opla

nd (a

bout

42

0 th

ousa

nd h

a) in

the

east

ern

and

the

wes

tern

re

gion

s.

-Gov

ernm

ent p

rovi

des

supp

ort t

o fa

rmer

s th

roug

h A

gric

ultu

re S

uppo

rt Fu

nd o

f the

Min

istry

of F

ood

and

Agr

icul

ture

, how

ever

in re

mot

e re

gion

s; a

cces

s to

the

fund

sup

port

is li

mite

d du

e to

lack

of s

truct

ure

and

capa

citie

s.

-In re

mot

e re

gion

s, la

ck o

f inf

rast

ruct

ure,

dis

tanc

e fro

m m

arke

ts,

scie

nce

and

rese

arch

cen

tres

and

low

fact

ory

capa

citie

s fo

r ce

real

s an

d ve

geta

ble

prod

uctio

n hi

nder

s ar

able

farm

ing

deve

lopm

ent a

nd e

xten

sion

s.

Wat

er

reso

urce

-The

re is

a la

ck o

f kno

wle

dge

and

skill

s re

late

d to

clim

ate

chan

ge in

the

curr

icul

um

of c

olle

ges,

inst

itute

s an

d un

iver

sitie

s. T

rain

ing

and

re-

train

ings

are

not

suf

ficie

nt.

-Dis

sem

inat

ion

of c

limat

e ch

ange

st

udy

is li

mite

d, th

eref

ore,

in

form

atio

n an

d re

sear

ch o

n ec

onom

ic b

enefi

ts o

f ada

ptat

ion

optio

ns a

re in

suffi

cien

t. Th

ese

hind

er e

ffici

ent i

mpl

emen

tatio

ns a

nd

mon

itorin

g of

ada

ptat

ion

optio

ns.

-


34

Chapter 4

Fore

st-T

rain

ing

priv

ate

inve

ntor

y co

mpa

nies

to p

ursu

e be

tter

fore

st m

anag

emen

t pra

ctic

es,

and

fore

stry

uni

ts a

nd

envi

ronm

enta

l age

ncie

s to

co

nduc

t effi

cien

t mon

itorin

g of

fo

rest

ry m

easu

res.

-Pilo

ting

a co

mpr

ehen

sive

trai

ning

sy

stem

for s

usta

inab

le fo

rest

m

anag

emen

t, an

d ad

visi

ng th

e M

inis

try o

f Lab

our o

n w

ays

to

impr

ove

the

voca

tiona

l tra

inin

g sy

stem

for f

ores

ters

.

-

Nat

ural

di

sast

er

man

agem

ent

-

-In M

ongo

lia, t

here

is 1

m

eteo

rolo

gica

l sta

tion

per 1

1.8

thou

sand

squ

are

km a

nd th

e di

stan

ce b

etw

een

obse

rvat

ion

stat

ions

is 2

00-3

00km

from

eac

h ot

her.

Ther

e is

onl

y on

e ra

dar s

tatio

n in

Ula

anba

atar

city

whi

ch w

as

set u

p by

Jap

anes

e G

over

nmen

t fu

ndin

g in

199

8. T

hese

geo

grap

hica

l ga

ps in

obs

erva

tion

netw

ork

mak

e a

pred

ictio

n an

d ea

rly w

arni

ng o

f at

mos

pher

ic d

isas

trous

phe

nom

ena

diffi

cult.

-Dis

aste

r man

agem

ent i

s ca

rrie

d ou

t by

the

Nat

iona

l Em

erge

ncy

Man

agem

ent A

genc

y (N

EM

A) o

f the

Gov

ernm

ent a

ccor

ding

to

Dis

aste

r Man

agem

ent L

aw. H

owev

er im

plem

enta

tion

is

inad

equa

te a

t pro

vinc

ial a

nd lo

cal l

evel

s du

e to

lack

of k

now

ledg

e an

d sk

ills

and

depe

nden

cy m

inds

et o

f peo

ple.

-E

arly

war

ning

of r

apid

ons

et h

azar

dous

and

dis

astro

us

phen

omen

a is

del

iver

ed to

peo

ple

thro

ugh

publ

ic m

edia

in

gene

ral w

ays.

Nat

ural

di

sast

er

man

agem

ent

-

Eve

n th

ough

irrig

ated

cro

plan

d is

incr

easi

ng, i

rrig

atio

n an

d w

ater

ap

plic

atio

n is

not

bei

ng d

one

base

d on

rese

arch

and

sci

entifi

c ba

ses

whi

ch re

duce

the

bene

fit

of ir

rigat

ion.

Num

eric

al w

eath

er

pred

ictio

n es

peci

ally

for p

reci

pita

tion

is n

ot s

uffic

ient

ly a

ccur

ate;

rive

r run

-of

f for

ecas

t is

base

d on

floo

d w

ave

trans

fer m

etho

ds. W

eath

er s

tatio

ns

are

loca

ted

in s

ettle

men

ts, s

o th

ere

are

chal

leng

es to

pre

dict

fore

st a

nd

step

pe fi

res

and

river

floo

ds.

-

35


Nat

ural

di

sast

er

man

agem

ent

-

-Mes

o-sc

ale

mod

el o

f num

eric

al

wea

ther

pre

dict

ion

has

been

in

trodu

ced

in th

e M

eteo

rolo

gy

Age

ncy

sinc

e 20

06 a

nd p

redi

ctio

n ac

cura

cy h

as im

prov

ed s

igni

fican

tly.

But

the

fore

cast

of e

xtre

me

even

ts

(atm

osph

eric

haz

ardo

us a

nd

disa

stro

us p

heno

men

a) is

not

su

ffici

ent.

Esp

ecia

lly s

low

ons

et

phen

omen

a su

ch a

s dr

ough

t and

dz

ud a

re c

halle

ngin

g to

pre

dict

eve

n in

obj

ectiv

e w

ays.

-

-

-Cur

rent

ly, ri

sks

of n

atur

al

disa

ster

s ar

e no

t bei

ng d

one

due

to la

ck o

f mon

itorin

g in

form

atio

n of

atm

osph

eric

haz

ardo

us a

nd

disa

stro

us p

heno

men

a as

wel

l as

una

ccou

nted

eco

nom

ic a

nd

natu

ral l

osse

s. T

here

is n

o in

tegr

ated

dat

abas

e, w

hich

incl

udes

in

form

atio

n ab

out h

uman

ani

mal

ep

idem

ic s

ourc

es. E

ach

inst

itutio

n ha

s se

para

te d

atab

ases

, whi

ch

mak

es m

anag

emen

t and

dec

isio

n m

akin

g ch

alle

ngin

g.

-


36

Chapter 4

4.3.

Tec

hn

ical

Tab

le 4

.3. C

urre

nt a

nd p

lann

ed a

dapt

atio

n un

derta

king

s

Sec

tor

Ada

ptat

ion

tech

nolo

gy n

eeds

C

urre

nt s

tatu

s

Live

stoc

k an

d pa

stur

e

Sea

sona

l to

inte

r-an

nual

pre

dict

ion

and

lives

tock

ear

ly

war

ning

sys

tem

-The

re is

a la

ck o

f coo

rdin

atio

n an

d in

tegr

atio

n be

twee

n m

onito

ring,

ass

essm

ent,

usag

e an

d m

anag

emen

t of p

astu

re

and

soil.

Info

rmat

ion

and

conc

lusi

ons

are

diffe

rent

, inf

orm

atio

n is

not

exc

hang

ed a

nd p

astu

re is

sues

are

not

suf

ficie

ntly

re

solv

ed a

t the

pol

icy

leve

l. -E

arly

war

ning

act

ions

nee

d to

be

impr

oved

thro

ugh

clar

ifyin

g fu

nctio

ns ro

les

of re

late

d in

stitu

tions

. Inf

orm

atio

n an

d di

ssem

inat

ion

stru

ctur

e sh

ould

be

clea

r and

regu

lar b

ased

on

past

ure

cond

ition

and

wea

ther

long

term

fore

cast

s.

(Impl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is m

ediu

m)

Sel

ectiv

e br

eedi

ng

of li

vest

ock

-Cur

rent

ly, b

uild

ing

of N

atio

nal c

ompr

ehen

sive

cen

tre fo

r ani

mal

gen

etic

s fu

nd is

bei

ng c

onst

ruct

ed in

Kho

ngor

sou

m

and

Dar

khan

-Uul

aim

ag. A

s a

resu

lt, la

bora

torie

s fo

r liv

esto

ck p

rodu

ctio

n, g

enet

ics,

bio

tech

nolo

gy a

nd a

nim

als

bree

ds

will

be

esta

blis

hed

acco

rdin

g to

inte

rnat

iona

l sta

ndar

ds.

-In th

e fra

mew

ork

of m

aint

aini

ng g

enet

ics

pool

of b

reed

s of

live

stoc

k, N

atio

nal l

ives

tock

gen

etic

s ce

ntre

has

re

plen

ishe

d th

e fu

nd w

ith 7

,429

por

tion

of g

enes

in 2

012,

9,5

49 g

enes

in 2

013,

6,1

28 g

enes

in 2

014

and

the

tota

l 20

,402

gen

es a

ccor

ding

to te

chni

cal s

tand

ards

. (Im

plem

enta

tion

stat

us is

med

ium

)Li

vest

ock

Dis

ease

M

anag

emen

t-C

urre

nt p

ract

ice

is to

dev

elop

a p

lan

and

budg

et fo

r liv

esto

ck h

ealth

and

pre

vent

ion

mea

sure

s fo

r eve

ry y

ear.

With

in

such

pra

ctic

e, p

rovi

ncia

l gov

erno

rs a

nd U

laan

baat

ar c

ity m

ayor

app

rove

d pl

ans

and

budg

ets

for a

num

ber o

f ani

mal

s,

requ

ired

vete

rinar

y m

edic

ines

pro

duct

s to

pre

vent

epi

dem

ics

and

para

site

s.

-In o

rder

to e

ffect

ivel

y di

agno

se e

pide

mic

s an

d in

fect

ions

, fou

r ful

ly e

quip

ped

labo

rato

ries

cost

ing

295

thou

sand

US

D

have

bee

n ha

nded

ove

r to

vete

rinar

y de

partm

ents

of A

rkha

ngai

, Kho

vd, D

undg

obi a

nd K

hent

ii pr

ovin

ces.

(Im

plem

enta

tion

stat

us is

med

ium

)S

usta

inab

le

Pas

ture

M

anag

emen

t

-In o

rder

to a

ppro

pria

tely

man

age

past

ure

for w

inte

r and

spr

ing,

info

rmat

ion

abou

t dro

ught

, sum

mer

pas

ture

pr

oduc

tion,

pas

ture

cap

acity

, loc

al c

onte

xt n

umbe

r of a

nim

als

and

pred

icte

d w

inte

r wea

ther

nee

ds a

re a

naly

sed.

A

ssoc

iate

d ris

ks s

houl

d be

ass

esse

d an

d ba

sed

on th

at p

ublic

info

rmat

ion,

reco

mm

enda

tions

sho

uld

be d

isse

min

ated

. Th

ese

role

s ar

e re

quire

d to

be

syst

emiz

ed, c

larif

ying

func

tions

and

resp

onsi

bilit

ies.

Her

ders

and

loca

l com

mun

ity

parti

cipa

tion

shou

ld b

e en

sure

d in

pas

ture

man

agem

ent a

t all

leve

ls.

(Impl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is m

ediu

m)

37


Live

stoc

k an

d pa

stur

e

Pro

duci

ng s

uppl

emen

t fe

ed fo

r win

ter a

nd s

prin

g-F

odde

r sto

rage

s w

ith a

cap

acity

of 1

00 to

nnes

wer

e bu

ilt in

the

wes

tern

regi

on Z

avkh

an a

nd G

obis

umbe

r ai

mag

s. (I

mpl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is g

ood)

Pla

ntin

g of

fora

ge

pere

nnia

ls re

sist

ant t

o dr

ough

t and

col

d w

inte

r fo

r fod

der p

rodu

ctio

n

(not

impl

emen

ted)

Rai

n an

d sn

ow w

ater

ha

rves

ting

for h

erde

r gr

oups

(not

impl

emen

ted)

Pro

duci

ng s

uppl

emen

t fo

rage

with

bac

teria

l en

zym

e fo

r liv

esto

ck

(not

impl

emen

ted)

Ara

ble

farm

ing

Sys

tem

of w

heat

in

tens

ifica

tion

thro

ugh

cons

erva

tion

tilla

ge

Min

imiz

ing

or z

ero

soil

tilla

ge w

as p

ilote

d in

the

1980

s fo

r cer

eals

and

fora

ge p

lant

atio

ns. S

ince

200

8 th

is

tech

nolo

gy h

as b

een

appl

ied

inte

nsiv

ely

and

abou

t 140

thou

sand

ha

of th

e fa

llow

fiel

d ha

s ha

d ze

ro-ti

llage

and

ro

und-

up h

erbi

cide

aga

inst

wee

ds a

s of

201

4. T

his

tech

nolo

gy h

elps

to m

inim

ize

expe

nses

, red

uce

soil

moi

stur

e lo

sses

and

win

d er

osio

n be

caus

e th

e so

il is

stil

l cov

ered

by

stra

ws.

Far

mer

s ar

e la

ckin

g th

e fin

anci

al c

apac

ity to

bu

y im

porte

d m

achi

nery

and

her

bici

de. (

Impl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is m

ediu

m)

Vege

tabl

e pr

oduc

tion

syst

em w

ith d

rip ir

rigat

ion

Sin

ce 1

997,

drip

irrig

atio

n sy

stem

has

bee

n ap

plie

d an

d as

of t

oday

abo

ut 2

80 h

a of

veg

etab

le fi

eld

is u

sing

the

tech

nolo

gy. F

arm

ers

have

lim

ited

finan

cial

cap

acity

to b

uy d

rip ir

rigat

ion

and

know

ledg

e to

app

ly th

e te

chno

logy

. (Im

plem

enta

tion

stat

us is

med

ium

)P

otat

o se

ed p

rodu

ctio

n sy

stem

usi

ng a

erop

onic

s(n

ot im

plem

ente

d)

Pro

per r

otat

ion

syst

em o

f ce

real

s pl

antin

gB

efor

e th

e 19

90s,

live

stoc

k fo

dder

was

cen

trally

pla

nned

and

man

aged

by

the

Gov

ernm

ent,

so p

lant

ing

of fo

rage

pl

ants

suc

h as

bar

ley,

bea

ns a

nd o

ther

pla

nts

wer

e hi

gher

than

whe

at a

nd a

rota

tion

of “w

heat

– fo

dder

pla

nts”

w

ere

used

at l

east

33%

of f

allo

w fi

elds

. D

urin

g th

e tra

nsiti

on p

erio

d af

ter 1

990,

live

stoc

k w

ere

priv

atiz

ed a

nd h

erde

rs c

ould

not

buy

fodd

er fo

r the

ir an

imal

s. T

here

fore

, rot

atio

n sh

ifted

to “w

heat

– fa

llow

” tur

n w

hich

mea

ns 5

0% o

f cro

p la

nd w

as u

nder

fallo

w

proc

essi

ng. I

n th

e re

cent

yea

rs, r

ye a

nd o

il pl

ants

hav

e be

en p

lant

ed a

nd e

xpor

ted

due

to in

capa

bilit

y to

pro

cess

in

fact

orie

s. (I

mpl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is m

ediu

m)

Cro

p pl

antin

g un

der

plas

tic m

ulch

esIn

the

fram

ewor

k of

inte

rnat

iona

l pro

ject

s st

arte

d in

200

7, u

sage

of p

last

ic m

ulch

es w

as p

ilote

d fo

r veg

etab

les

and

pota

to fi

elds

. As

of 2

015,

abo

ut 5

0 ha

of a

veg

etab

le fi

eld

has

been

app

lied

with

pla

stic

mul

ches

whi

ch h

elp

to s

ave

labo

r and

wat

er c

ost f

or ir

rigat

ion.

Far

mer

s ca

nnot

affo

rd im

porte

d pr

oduc

ts d

ue to

lack

of u

nder

stan

ding

th

e be

nefit

s an

d fin

anci

al c

apac

ity. (

Impl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is m

ediu

m)


38

Chapter 4

Ara

ble

farm

ing

Inte

grat

ed N

utrie

nt

Man

agem

ent

(not

impl

emen

ted)

Fore

st s

trip

prot

ectio

n of

ag

ricul

ture

land

(not

impl

emen

ted)

Pla

ntin

g w

inte

r cr

ops

Dur

ing

1970

, res

earc

h an

d ex

perim

ent o

n w

inte

r cro

ps s

uch

as w

heat

and

rye

wer

e do

ne in

agr

icul

tura

l reg

ions

, but

w

inte

r cro

ppin

g is

ver

y lim

ited

in th

e co

untry

due

to it

s lo

w p

reci

pita

tion

and

very

col

d w

eath

er.

War

min

g an

d ex

pect

ed w

inte

r pre

cipi

tatio

n in

crea

se a

fter 2

030

can

give

mor

e op

portu

nitie

s to

pilo

t som

e va

rietie

s of

w

inte

r whe

at a

nd ry

e.

Har

vest

ing

win

ter

snow

wat

er to

in

crea

se s

oil

moi

stur

e

Cur

rent

ly, w

inte

r sno

w is

ver

y lo

w w

hich

is li

miti

ng fa

ctor

to te

st a

nd a

pply

sno

w h

arve

stin

g. H

owev

er, t

echn

olog

ies

to in

crea

se s

now

den

sity

thro

ugh

mak

ing

dela

y in

sno

w m

eltin

g an

d re

serv

ing

mor

e sn

ow in

cum

ulat

ive

way

s ca

n be

pi

lote

d an

d ap

plie

d.

(Impl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is m

ediu

m)

Bre

edin

g of

new

va

rietie

s of

cro

p us

ing

mar

ker

assi

sted

sel

ectio

n (M

AS

)

(not

impl

emen

ted)

Wat

er

reso

urce

Eco

syst

em b

ased

ad

apta

tion

Pro

ject

“Eco

syst

em-b

ased

ada

ptat

ion

appr

oach

to m

aint

aini

ng w

ater

sec

urity

in c

ritic

al w

ater

cat

chm

ents

in M

ongo

lia”

is im

plem

entin

g in

mou

ntai

n an

d st

eppe

eco

syst

ems

by in

tern

alis

ing

clim

ate

chan

ge ri

sks

with

in la

nd a

nd w

ater

re

sour

ce m

anag

emen

t reg

imes

, (20

12-2

017)

(Impl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is m

ediu

m)

Fore

stB

iodi

vers

ity a

nd

adap

tatio

n of

key

fo

rest

eco

syst

ems

to c

limat

e ch

ange

Impr

ovem

ent o

f the

lega

l and

adm

inis

trativ

e fra

mew

ork’

is c

ontri

butin

g to

the

crea

tion

of s

uita

ble

cond

ition

s fo

r su

stai

nabl

e fo

rest

man

agem

ent,

(201

2-20

18)

(Impl

emen

tatio

n st

atus

is m

ediu

m)

39


CHAPTER 5. GAPS AND BARRIERS

Identified barriers per sectors were prioritized based on gaps between adaptation goals and targets, current status and required financial, capacity and technical supports. Two types of barriers which are very important and less important have been identified. Importance and easiness of removal of barriers were considered in the following four categories:

• High priority that require internal and external support • High priority that require internal support• Low priority that require internal and external support• Low priority that require internal support

Sector barriers according to the above mentioned categories are listed in Table 5.1. Barriers such as financial capacity and resources, technology, research, development and human capacity are belong to high priorities external barriers for all sectors. At the same time, insufficient legal environment, lack of coordination and integration, poor law enforcement and weak detailed research are in the category of high priority and internal barriers.


40

Chapter 5

Table 5.1. Gaps and barriers

National priority: high Nature of support: external+internal

National priority: highNature of support: internal

1. Pastoral livestock-Inadequate investment and financial support;-Lack of facilities of veterinary centres and laboratories;-Not established an early warning system that prevent from drought and dzud.

2. Arable farming-Lack of financial resources for building of drip irrigation system;-Collaborative research work on new varieties of crops with drought and heat wave resistant;-All machinery, equipment and fuels are fully dependent on import;-Weak exchanging experiences and practices from other countries due to finance.3. Water resource management-Lack of financial support to implement water resource, usage and protection actions;-Products, equipment, materials and machinery are all imported;-Limited research and evidence of climate change studies and economic benefits.4. Natural disaster management-Low financial capacity to equip with advanced techniques and equipment; -Lack of research and development;-Poor infrastructure to disseminate disaster early warning to the public.

1. Pastoral livestock-Lack of laws, policies and coordination;-No existence of pasture usage coordination/otor movements in alignment with local contexts to overcome risks;-Poor enforcement of land use contracts and responsibilities at soum levels;-Pasture is more cross-sectoral issue and there is no integrated coordination;-The most importantly, pasture in Mongolia has no ownership and no value. 2. Arable farming-There are no legal requirements to use water efficiently by central and local government institutions and no water tariff which cause inefficient usage of water;-There is a low demand of other crops at national markets. Poor infrastructure to process, unavailability of appropriate varieties of alternative crops and related agricultural technologies are prevailing;-The current amount of winter precipitation is not enough for winter cropping. Winter rye is only a crop which can be planted in winter. Alternative crops do not exist, farmers have no knowledge and experience in winter cropping.

3. Water resource management-Lack of human capacity and being non producers;-Limited access to soft loans and bank loans have usually high interest rates;-Ineffective taxation policies, weak support to national productions and poor coordination on imports and exports;-Lack of monitoring of climate change adaptation implementations.

4.Natural disaster management-Lack of human resource capacity and trainings;-Non existence of integrated database of natural disasters, separate databases per agencies and institutions and no coordination between them;-Disaster management actions have poor implementation especially at provincial and local levels;-Rapid onset atmospheric disasters’ warnings are delivered in very general way without details to public through media.

National priority: lowNature of support: external+internal

National priority: lowNature of support: internal

1.Pastoral livestock-Cultural barriers of acceptance of pasture usage and protection issues.

1. Pastoral livestock-Low understanding about appropriate pasture usage and overgrazing.-Lack of knowledge and understanding of long term sustainability of pasture and prevention of soil degradation and social acceptance.

41


CHAPTER 6. SUMMARY OF NEEDS

Based on current adaptation undertakings and gaps, the needs to achieve adaptation goals and targets for 2021-2030 are given in (Table 6.1).

Rough estimations of adaptation measures, listed in Table 6.1, shows that in the future Mongolia will need around 3.4 billion USD for funding in technology and capacity building. Up to 80% of total need expected to be financed from international sources and donor institutions.

Table 6.1. Adaptation needs (2021-2030)

Sector Adaptation goals

Adaptation targets

Needs

Capacity Technology

Financial (international, investments), million USD

Animal husbandry and pasture

-To implement pasture sustainable management.

-Reduce rate of degraded pasture, -Regulate headcounts and types of animals including wild animals to match with pasture carrying capacities.

-To create legal regulation for pasture use, -To set up taxation system for pasture use,-To increase community participation in the proper use of pasture, its monitoring and conservation.

-To build up early warning system for drought and dzud to prevent animal loss,-To improve livestock quality and breeds,-To improve livestock health (epidemic and infectious diseases) management.

46

Arable farming

-To increase irrigated cropland, reduce soil water loss and decrease soil carbon emissions.

-To reduce bare fallow up to 30%, -Crop rotation system with 3-4 routes and 3-5 species crops will be introduced, -Irrigated cropland will be expanded by 2-2.5 times.

-To create legal regulation on soil protection (soil texture and moisture).

-To diffuse zero tillage technology,-To increase species of crops and rotation, -To transfer effective drip irrigation technology reducing water loss by 2.5-5.0 times.

150

Water resources

-To maintain the availability of water resources through protection of run-off formation zones and their native ecosystem in river basins.

-30 % of the territory will be state protected by 2030 and the sustainable financial mechanism will be introduced.

-To implement Integrated water resource management systems,-To coordinate multi-stakeholder relations through improved legal policies and efficient management,-Strengthen human resource capacity to deal with technical issues.

-To implement ecosystem- based technologies,-To support ecosystem services through hydrological monitoring, construction of water diversion canals to drying lakes located in flood plains and re-forestation actions.

5


42

Chapter 6

Water resources

-To construct reservoirs for glacier melt water harvesting,-To regulate river streams and flow.

-To create water reservoirs at rivers and at outlets of lakes, and to construct multipurpose systems of water usage.

- To enhance hydrological monitoring and research for river flow regulation,-To construct water reservoirs and water diversion facilities to transfer water resource to dry regions.

- 1800

-To introduce water saving and water treatment technologies.

-To find solutions for sustainable water supply of Ulaanbaatar city and industries and mining in the Gobi region, and subsequently implement.

- To conduct a study and introduce sustainable water supply with closed systems preventing evaporation loss.

-To introduce new technologies for water saving, and treatment.

605

Forest resource

-To increase the efficiency of reforestation actions.

-Forest area will be increased to 9% by 2030 through reforestation activities.

-To build the capacity of community forestry groups to conduct modern technologies for forest seedlings and tree plantations.

-To introduce technology to plant seedlings.

11

-To reduce forest degradation rate.

-To reduce forest degradation rate caused by human activities, fires, insects and diseases.

-To set up fully equipped stations fighting forest fires and insects outburst and capacity building.

-To use airplanes to fight fires, -To introduce biological technologies against insects and pests.

13

-To improve the effectiveness of forest management.

-Resilient forests which are adapted to climate change, highly productive and have appropriate composition and structure will be created.

-To provide equipment and machinery to carry out forest cleaning activities,-To train human resources for forest management practices.

-To improve the efficiency of forest cleaning technologies.

7

Natural disaster manage-ment

-To enhance early warning and preven-tion systems for natural disasters.

-Strength-ening early warning system for natural disasters.

-To establish early de-tection and prediction system, -To conduct disaster risk assessment at the local area.

-To improve forecast-ing quality through increasing super computer capacity,-To establish Doppler radar network cover-ing the entire territory of the country.

65.4

43


CHAPTER 7. MONITORING AND REPORTING PROGRESS

Monitoring of climate change adaptations will be conducted in integrated ways of adaptation actions and measured included in “Long-term strategy of Mongolia development”, “Sustainable development programme”, “National action programme on climate change”, “Water” national programme, “Green development policy” and other sectoral strategies.

Required funding for adaptations implementation will consist of State budget, Government special funds (such as environment protection fund, special tax revenue, proposed funds for natural disaster risks, pasture fund and climate change adaptation etc), international funds and through other financial mechanism.

Monitoring will be based on achievements on adaptation goals and targets. Baselines and targets for indicators will be assessed quantitatively and qualitatively at every phase of implementation.


44

Chapter 7

AN

NE

X I

An

nex

1. P

riorit

izat

ion

of a

dapt

atio

n go

als

and

targ

ets

(Sco

res:

Ver

y hi

gh-3

, Hig

h-2,

Med

ium

-1)

Cat

egor

yS

ecto

rS

ub s

ecto

rsP

redi

ctio

n of

im

pact

sS

igni

fican

ceU

rgen

cyC

onfid

ence

Ada

ptat

ion

goal

s an

d ta

rget

s

Agr

icul

ture

, w

ater

reso

urce

, fo

rest

ry a

nd

disa

ster

m

anag

emen

t

Ara

ble

farm

ing

Whe

atD

ecre

ase

of c

rop

prod

uctio

n an

d in

crea

se

of w

ater

co

nsum

ptio

n du

e to

dr

ough

ts

and

clim

ate

dryn

ess.

33

3-U

se w

ater

effi

cien

t and

wat

er s

avin

g te

chno

logi

es.

-Impr

ove

crop

rota

tion

and

incr

ease

cro

p ty

pes

in

the

syst

em.

-Pla

nt w

inte

r whe

at a

nd ry

e to

redu

ce re

lianc

e on

su

mm

er c

rops

.-In

trodu

ce s

now

wat

er h

arve

stin

g te

chno

logi

es

thou

gh k

eepi

ng s

now

cov

erag

e on

cro

plan

ds a

nd

abso

rbin

g sn

ow w

ater

into

soi

ls.

-Pro

tect

soi

l fer

tility

and

redu

ce p

erce

ntile

s of

bar

e fa

llow

are

as.

-Pla

nt d

roug

ht-r

esis

tant

var

iety

of c

rops

.-S

uppo

rt an

d st

reng

then

spe

cial

ized

ent

ities

who

m

anuf

actu

re a

nd im

port

agric

ultu

re e

quip

men

t and

m

achi

nerie

s, s

oil a

nd c

rop

prot

ectio

n pr

oduc

ts.

Pot

ato,

ve

geta

ble,

an

d be

rrie

s2

33

Oil

plan

ts a

nd

fora

ge

12

2

Ani

mal

hu

sban

dry

Pas

ture

Red

uctio

n of

pas

ture

bi

omas

s du

e to

dro

ught

an

d cl

imat

e dr

ynes

s.3

32

-Est

ablis

h a

lega

l env

ironm

ent f

or p

astu

re

rela

tions

.-C

ontro

l ani

mal

num

bers

in a

lignm

ent w

ith p

astu

re

carr

ying

cap

acity

.-D

evel

op c

o-ex

istin

g pa

stor

al li

vest

ock

and

inte

nsifi

ed fa

rmin

g.-Im

prov

e ba

lanc

e be

twee

n an

imal

type

s an

d he

rds

com

posi

tion.

-S

et u

p ta

xatio

n po

licie

s fo

r pas

ture

usa

ge a

nd

finan

cial

sup

port

for i

mpr

ovin

g de

grad

ed p

astu

res.

-Impr

ove

publ

ic a

nd h

erde

rs a

war

enes

s on

pro

per

usag

e of

pas

ture

thro

ugh

civi

c pa

rtici

patio

n an

d re

stor

ing

tradi

tiona

l bes

t pra

ctic

es.

Live

stoc

kIn

crea

se

of a

nim

al

loss

due

to

drou

ghts

and

dz

ud

32

3

-Stre

ngth

en e

arly

war

ning

sys

tem

for d

roug

hts

and

dzud

pre

vent

ion.

-Impr

ove

lives

tock

bre

eds.

Mor

e w

ater

de

ficit

due

to

river

wat

er

regi

me

chan

ges

23

2

-Reg

ulat

e riv

er fl

ow a

nd c

onst

ruct

sur

face

wat

er

rese

rvoi

rs a

nd c

lose

d w

ater

dis

tribu

tion

syst

ems.

45


Agr

icul

ture

, w

ater

reso

urce

, fo

rest

ry a

nd

disa

ster

m

anag

emen

t

Wat

er

reso

urce

Pop

ulat

ion

Wat

er

reso

urce

de

crea

se a

nd

wat

er re

gim

e ch

ange

s

32

1-In

trodu

ce w

ater

regu

latio

n, tr

ansp

ort,

dive

rsio

n sy

stem

s fo

r wat

er s

uppl

y.In

dust

ry a

nd

min

ing

33

2-C

ontri

bute

wat

er s

avin

g an

d re

-usi

ng te

chno

logi

es

wat

er d

iver

sion

and

tran

spor

t sys

tem

s an

d pr

otec

tion

of w

ater

reso

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46

Chapter 7

Climate Change MitigationIII

Climate Change Mitigation

48

Chapter 8

CHAPTER 8. GHG MITIGATION

8.1. Existing national GHG emissions and BAU projections of GHG emissions

8.1.1. National GHG inventory for the latest year available

8.1.1.1. Energy sector

The GHG inventory for the energy sector has been prepared for the period from 1990 to 2012 (MARCC, 2014). Three main gases were considered: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Indirect gases like carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and sulfur oxide (SO2) were also included. The GHG inventory considered the emissions resulting from fossil fuel combustion and fugitive emissions from the extraction of solid fossil fuels.

The activity data for the energy sector was taken from coal balances as well as data on imports of liquid fuels, which are issued annually by the National Statistical Office (NSO) of Mongolia. The energy balances and consumption data was taken from country statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other relevant ministries and organizations of Mongolia.

The energy sector is the most significant source of CO2 emissions in Mongolia. The contribution of different sectors to solid fuel combustion is illustrated in Table 8.1. In 1990, CO2 emissions from solid fuel combustion were 8,135.04Gg; with energy industries the largest contributor at 63.2%. By 2012, CO2 emissions from solid fuel combustion were slightly higher than 1990 levels at 8,771.49Gg, however with a larger share of 76.9% from the energy industry, due to declining emissions in manufacturing, transport, commercial, residential, and agricultural sectors.

Table 8.1. CO2 emissions from solid fuel combustion, Gg

Years

Sectoral Approach

Energy Industries

Manufacturing Industries

Trans port

Commer cial

Residen tial

Agricul ture Other TOTAL

1990 5,143.28 1,387.31 127.87 338.75 746.36 178.35 213.12 8,135.04

1995 4,599.77 850.56 108.80 265.79 176.50 31.41 257.99 6,290.82

2000 5,079.94 267.04 81.88 262.09 256.78 3.37 112.17 6,063.27

2005 5,254.11 132.56 112.50 216.74 443.15 20.53 132.12 6,311.71

2010 6,457.17 387.66 56.08 3.37 686.47 11.22 581.03 8,183.00

2011 6,302.89 423.01 59.45 2.24 717.88 10.10 538.41 8,053.97

2012 6,751.67 624.90 47.11 12.34 702.17 4.15 629.15 8,771.49

Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014

49

Climate Change MitigationChapter 8

CO2 emissions from liquid fuel combustion result mainly from imported liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, jet kerosene and LPG. In 1990, CO2 emissions from liquid fuels were 2,518.17Gg, which accounted for 18.8% of total fuel combustion. While in 2012 CO2 emissions from liquid fuel combustion were 3,523.08Gg, which is 21.2% of the total (see Figure 8.1). CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are consequently rising.

Figure 8.1 shows the CO2 emissions by fuel type for the period of 1990-2012. The largest percentage of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion is from solid fuel, approximately 49-61%, liquid fuel, approximately 10-21%, and 20-32% from biomass. The CO2 emissions from biomass are relatively constant, but emissions from liquid fuel are tending to increase.

18.8%9.6% 12.5% 15.4% 16.3% 17.6% 18.6% 16.4% 16.6% 18.7% 21.2%

60.8%59.9% 57.8% 57.4% 57.4% 53.5% 52.1% 53.0% 54.7% 49.1% 52.9%

20.4%30.4% 29.7% 27.3% 26.3% 28.9% 29.3% 30.6% 28.6% 32.1% 25.9%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Years

Biomass

Solid Fossil

Liquid Fossil

Figure 8.1. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the energy sector, by fuel type Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014

The sources of methane emissions in the energy sector arise from fuel combustion activities and fugitive emissions from coal mining. The main sources of N2O emissions are fuel combustion activities in the energy industry and the residential sector. In 1990, CH4 emissions from the energy sector were 494Gg CO2-eq. (23,520 tonnes) and decreased to 363Gg CO2-eq. (17,270 tonnes) in 2000. CH4 emissions have been increasing since 2001 and reached 997Gg CO2-eq. (47,460 tonnes) in 2012.

Table 8.2 shows total CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in Gg CO2-eq. unit by using the Global Warming Potential (GWP) provided by IPCC. As a result, the total emissions of GHGs from the energy sector were estimated at 13,661Gg CO2-eq. in 2012, of which CO2, CH4 and N2O accounted for 91.7%, 7.3% and 0.01% respectively.


50

Chapter 8

Table 8.2. Total CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in Gg CO2-eq. in the energy sector

Gases 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012

CO2 10,653.21 7,301.87 7,371.49 7,999.67 10,671.26 11,124.59 12,530.81

CH4 493.87 373.08 362.63 414.04 906.78 1141.56 996.66

N2O 93.08 85.98 83.98 85.21 127.10 148.80 133.30

Total 11,240.17 7,760.93 7,818.11 8,499.93 11,705.14 12,414.95 13,660.77


Figure 8.2 shows the total GHG emissions from the energy sector by gases in Gg CO2-eq. units for the period 1990-2012.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012

Gg

CO

2-eq

. CO2

CH4

N2O

TOTAL

Figure 8.2. Total GHG emissions from the energy sector by gases in Gg CO2-eq.Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014

8.1.1.2. Transport sector

Due to a sparsely populated, geographically large national territory, the Mongolian transport sector is of strategic importance and consists of road, rail, air and water transport sub-sectors.

All types of cargo transport turnovers as well as passenger turnover, are shown in Table 8.3. According to the table, in 2014, the total cargo traffic rail freight turnover was 63%, transportation 37%, total passenger automobile circulation 55%, 22% for rail transport, and 23% for air transport.

Table 8.3. All types of cargo transport turnover and passenger turnover

No Specifications and types of transport 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 Cargo turnover, million t/km: 12,124.8 16,336.7 16,613.4 16,400.0 19,757.0

rail transport 10,286.7 11,418.7 12,142.7 12,076.5 12,473.7 automobiles 1,834.0 4,910.3 4,461.0 4,314.0 7,274.0 air transport 4.2 7.7 9.7 9.6 9.4

51


2 Passenger turnover, million passenger per km: 3,607.4 4,695.4 4,971.8 4,625.7 5,395.8

rail transport 1,220.0 1,399.7 1485.4 1,394.4 1,194.5 automobiles 1,480.2 2,321.6 2263.1 1,941.9 2,965.3 air transport 907.2 973.9 1,223.1 1,311.8 1,235.7 maritime transport 0.044 0.252 0.198 0.265 0.307

Source: Mongolian Statistical Yearbook, 2013.

Table 8.4 shows the total number of cars, their types, and classifications by used years. According to the table, in 2013 amongst the total vehicle fleet 10 and more years old cars accounted for 72.5%, while 4-9 years old cars accounted for 20.6%. In 2010 the number of cars less than 3 years old accounted for 3.4%, increasing to 6.9% by 2013.

Table 8.4. Number of cars, types and used period

No Specifications and types of transport 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 Type of car: 254,486 312,542 345,473 384,864 437,677

seat/sedan 172,583 208,514 228,650 259,309 303,724

truck 61,841 75,090 83,718 89,473 96,581

buses 16,366 22,547 21,642 20,400 20,650

special Purpose 3,696 6,391 11,463 15,682 16,722

2 Used period: 254,486 312,542 345,473 384,864 437,677

3 years 8,585 10,770 20,325 26,492 21,430

4-9 years 54,283 46,114 79,022 79,470 86,337

10 and above 191,618 255,658 246,126 278,902 329,910


Table 8.5 shows the length of different types of the national road network in Mongolia. In 2010, 3,016km, or 45% of the total road length was paved road, increased to 5,838km, or 65% in 2013, and tending to increase in future.

Table 8.5. Improved roads by length

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Improved road length, km 6,734.4 7,633.5 7,652.9 8,875.6 9,428.2

Paved road 3,015.6 4,063.5 4,082.9 5,838.2 6,461.0

Gravel top road 2,071.6 1,959.2 1,959.2 1,864.8 1,782.5

Improved soil road 1,647.2 1,610.8 1,910.8 1,172.6 1,184.7



52

Chapter 8

8.1.1.3. Industrial sector

GHG emissions in the industrial sector include CO2 and SO2 emissions from cement manufacturing, CO2 emissions from lime manufacturing, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions from food and beverage production, as well as different halocarbons that are also consumed in various applications such as air conditioners and refrigerators (Table 8.6).

Table 8.6. CO2 emissions from lime production, Gg

Production GasesYears

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2010 2011 2012

CementCO2 219.74 54.24 45.71 55.78 70.19 160.77 212.26 174.18

SO2 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.10 0.13 0.10

Lime CO2 93.73 46.77 33.67 73.89 54.92 45.68 41.22 62.06


The relevant precursor gas emitted during food production is NMVOCs. They are produced during the processing of cereals and fruits in preparation for the fermentation processes. The estimates of emissions from food and beverages were made for the annual production of spirit, beer, wine, meat and meat products, bread, cakes and animal feeds. NMVOC emissions from beer production were not estimated in the period from 1990 to 1994 due to a lack of information on beer production. The NMVOC total emissions in 1990 were 1.208Gg and reduced to 0.802Gg in 2012. Table 8.7 shows the total NMVOC emissions by food and beverages categories for the period 1990-2012.

Table 8.7. Total NMVOC emissions from food and beverages production in the industrial sector, Gg

Products/Years 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

Beer - 0.0005 0.001 0.003 0.016 0.023

Spirit 0.521 0.318 0.569 0.464 0.541 0.496

Alcohol, wine 0.005 0.003 0.005 0.006 0.016 0.022

Meat, fish and poultry 0.019 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.005

Cakes, biscuits 0.038 0.009 0.007 0.009 0.013 0.015

Bread 0.506 0.294 0.162 0.181 0.174 0.203

Animal feed 0.119 0.047 0.011 0.016 0.066 0.038

TOTAL 1.208 0.675 0.747 0.681 0.830 0.802


Potential product halocarbon emissions (HFCs) were calculated and contained in various products such as refrigeration and air conditioning, which are imported, using the Tier 1b methodology of IPCC guidelines. The number of total refrigerators and cars with air conditioners is available in the Statistical Yearbooks of Mongolia. The quantity of material per unit (emission factor) selected from default factors in Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories. Table 8.8 shows total emissions related to halocarbons.

53


Table 8.8. Total emissions related to halocarbons, Gg

Gases/Years 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

HFCs 0.01 0.03 0.15 0.56 1.36 1.92


8.1.1.4. Agricultural sector

CH4 and N2O emissions from livestock are directly affected by the number of livestock and the manure management practices employed. The amount of CH4 that is released depends on the type, age, weight of the animal, the quality and quantity of the feed, and the energy expenditure of the animal. Most Mongolian livestock is indigenous breeds that graze throughout the year on natural pastures with low productivity and a small size as compared to other breeds of animals in the world. Moreover, the climate of Mongolia influences the type of forage and the amount digested by livestock annually. Therefore, emission factors of CH4 for enteric fermentation and manure management have been developed for Mongolian specific conditions using a Tier 2 approach.

N2O emissions related to manure handling before the manure is added to soils are included in N2O emissions from manure management category. According to IPCC guidelines (1996, 2006) on manure management system categorization and definition, only pasture/range/paddock and daily spread systems occur in Mongolia. Therefore, during storage and treatment of these two systems, N2O emissions are assumed to be zero. N2O emissions from the land application of Mongolian livestock are covered under the agricultural soil category.

Agriculture residues were calculated for wheat and potatoes as these are the most common crops in Mongolia. However, GHG emissions from the field burning of agriculture residues were very small compared to other emissions from agriculture.

N2O emissions from agricultural soils are primarily due to the microbial processes of nitrification and denitrification in the soil. Direct soil N2O emissions of from animal production include those induced by grazing animals. Cultivation of organic soils may increase soil organic matter mineralization and, in effect, N2O emissions. Results of the GHG emissions calculation from the agricultural sector are shown in Table 8.9.

Table 8.9. GHG Emissions from the agricultural sector, Gg

Years

Methane Emissions from Domestic LivestockField Burning of Agricultural

ResiduesAgricultural

soilsEnteric

fermentation

Manure

Management TotalCH4 CH4 CH4 N2O NOx CO N2O

1990 274.89 7.04 281.93 0.22 0.0044 0.16 4.71 11.22

1995 296.93 7.73 304.66 0.08 0.0016 0.06 1.72 6.05

2000 296.69 7.64 304.33 0.05 0.0009 0.03 0.97 3.57

2005 257.50 6.24 263.74 0.03 0.0005 0.02 0.57 3.14

2006 286.84 6.81 293.65 0.05 0.0009 0.03 1.00 2.84


54

Chapter 8

2007 326.14 7.58 333.72 0.04 0.0008 0.03 0.85 2.77

2008 344.73 7.83 352.56 0.07 0.0014 0.05 1.50 3.60

2009 356.39 8.04 364.42 0.13 0.0025 0.09 2.65 5.05

2010 276.29 6.47 282.76 0.12 0.0023 0.08 2.44 5.41

2011 301.58 7.08 308.66 0.15 0.0029 0.10 3.05 6.56

2012 340.99 7.92 348.91 0.16 0.0031 0.11 3.31 7.39


8.1.1.5. Waste sector

The GHG inventory of the waste sector is based on estimating CH4 emissions from solid waste disposal sites, CH4 emissions from wastewater handling, and N2O from human sewage. The urban population is used for the waste sector calculation since waste in rural areas is typically scattered on the land rather than in solid waste disposal sites (SWDSs). Mongolia has experienced trends towards increasing solid waste output, mainly due to a concentration of the population in urban areas, increased consumption and changes in the economic structure. In 2012, Mongolia had a total population of 2,867,744 people and 45.96% of the total population living in Ulaanbaatar, the capital city.

Methane emissions from wastewater handling were calculated for two basic types of wastewater treatment systems: domestic and commercial wastewater and industrial wastewater. In Mongolia, about one-third of domestic and commercial wastewater is treated by sewer systems with aerobic treatment. 30% of the population lives in apartments connected with central sewer systems, and the annual per capita protein intake is used for the nitrous oxide emission calculation.

Total methane emissions from waste were estimated at 7.51Gg (157.71Gg CO2-eq.) in 1990, and this amount increased to 11.27Gg (236.67Gg CO2-eq.) in 2012. During the period of estimations, about 95% of CH4 emissions came from solid waste disposal sites, about 1.7% came from industrial wastewater, and the leftover came from domestic wastewater. Total nitrous oxide from human sewage was estimated at 0.05Gg (15.5Gg CO2-eq.) in 1990 and this amount increased to 0.08Gg (24.8Gg CO2-eq.) in 2012. GHG emissions from the waste sector between 1990 and 2012 are summarized as Gg CO2-eq. and shown in Table 8.10.

Table 8.10. GHG emissions from the waste sector, Gg

Year

Methaneemissions from solid

waste disposal

sites

Wastewater handlingTotal

methane emission

Totalnitrous oxide

emission

Total GHG emissionsIndustrial

wastewater

Domestic and commercial wastewater

Sub-total

Human sewage

CH4 CH4 CH4 CH4 N2O CH4 N2OGg CO2-

eq.

1990 6.94 0.31 0.25 0.56 0.05 7.51 0.05 174.49

1995 7.03 0.08 0.27 0.34 0.06 7.37 0.06 173.05

2000 7.80 0.10 0.28 0.38 0.07 8.19 0.07 193.55

55


2005 8.75 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.07 9.14 0.07 215.11

2006 8.95 0.12 0.31 0.43 0.07 9.38 0.07 219.94

2010 9.98 0.21 0.33 0.54 0.08 10.52 0.08 245.68

2011 10.31 0.24 0.33 0.57 0.08 10.89 0.08 254.31

2012 10.66 0.26 0.34 0.60 0.08 11.27 0.08 262.82


8.1.1.6. Net GHG emissions

Total GHG emissions in Mongolia (energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste excluding land use land use change and forestry [LULUCF]) for the period 1990-2012 are presented in Table 8.11. In 1990, net GHG emissions were 21,145.5Gg CO2-eq., and GHG emissions reduced to 15,786.4Gg CO2-eq. in 2000. The reduction was mostly due to the socio-economic slowdown during the transition period from Mongolia’s central planned economy to a market economy from 1991 to around the year 2000. After 2000, total GHG emissions have steadily increased to 26,276.9Gg CO2-eq. in 2012.

The energy sector accounted for 53.2% of total GHG emissions in 1990 and 51.9% in 2012. The second largest source of GHG emissions is the agricultural sector, accounting for 44.5% of total GHG emissions in 1990 and 36.6% in 2012. The single largest emitter of CO2 is the energy sector. In 2012, 98.2% of total CO2 emissions were from the energy sector, which includes all types of fuel combustion activities (Table 8.11).

Total GHG emissions in Mongolia are comparatively low than other countries, but per capita GHG emissions are relatively high compared to other developing countries. This can be attributed to Mongolia’s extremely cold continental climate, the widespread use of fossil fuels for energy, and the low efficiency of fuel and energy use.

Table 8.11. Mongolia’s total GHG emissions by gases (excl. LULUCF sector) for the period 1990-2012 (Gg CO2-eq.)

GHG source and sinks CO2 emissions CH4 N2O HFCs TOTAL

Gg CO2-eq.

1990

Energy 10,653.21 23.52 0.30 - 11,240.17

Industrial processes 313.47 - - 0.01 326.94

Agriculture - 282.15 11.22 - 9,403.91

Waste - 7.51 0.05 - 174.49

Total (excl. LULUCF sector) 10,966.68 313.18 11.58 0.01 21,145.51

2000

Energy 7,371.49 17.27 0.27 - 7,818.11

Industrial processes 79.38 - - 0.15 275.96

Agriculture - 304.38 3.57 - 7,498.82

Waste - 8.19 0.07 - 193.55


56

Chapter 8


2012

Energy 12,530.81 47.46 0.43 - 13,660.77

Industrial processes 236.24 - - 1.92 2,732.24

Agriculture - 349.07 7.39 - 9,621.11

Waste - 11.27 0.08 - 262.82



Table 8.12. Mongolia’s total GHG emissions by sectors (excl. LULUCF sector) for the period 1990-2012 (Gg CO2-eq.)

Years/Categories Energy IndustrialProcesses Agriculture Waste TOTAL

1990 11,240.17 326.94 9,403.91 174.49 21,145.51

1995 7,760.93 139.29 8,275.05 173.05 16,348.32

2000 7,818.11 275.96 7,498.82 193.55 15,786.43

2005 8,499.93 857.67 6,511.29 215.11 16,084.01

2010 11,705.14 1,974.45 7,618.51 245.68 21,543.77

2011 12,414.95 2,892.48 8,518.62 254.31 24,080.36

2012 13,660.77 2,732.24 9,621.11 262.82 26,276.94


8.2. National BAU GHG emission

Projections of GHG emissions between 2006 and 2030 in Mongolia have been estimated in Mongolia’s Second National Communication in 2010 (MNET 2010). For the forecasting of emissions from energy sectors, which accounts for the majority of the GHG emissions and results from a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planing system (LEAP) model were used. LEAP is a scenario-based energy-environment modeling tool. Scenarios are based on a comprehensive accounting of how energy is consumed, converted and produced in a given region under a range of alternative assumptions on population, economic development, technology and other related measures. Projection of emissions from agriculture, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and waste sectors were calculated up to 2030 on the basis of previous trends, taking into account social and economic changes and currently implemented or adopted policies and measures. The aggregated projections of GHG emissions are shown in Table 8.13.

57


Table 8.13. Aggregated projections of GHG emissions by sector

SectorsGHG emissions in Gg CO2-eq. Average annual growth rate,%

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2006-2015

2015-2020

2020-2030

2006-2030

Energy 10,220 14,033 20,233 25,930 32,796 41,815 10.89 5.63 6.13 12.88

Industry 891 1,354 1,602 1,836 2,065 2,318 8.87 2.92 2.63 6.67

Agriculture 6,462 6,405 6,573 6,657 6,762 6,867 0.19 0.26 0.32 0.26

LULUCF -2,083 -1,932 -1,785 -1,420 -1,000 -680 -1.59 -4.09 -5.21 -2.81

Waste 138 158 183 209 254 294 3.62 2.84 4.07 4.71

Total 15,628 20,018 26,806 33,212 40,877 50,614 7.95 4.78 5.24 9.33

Source: MNET, UNEP: Mongolia Second National Communication, Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2010.

Total GHG emissions are projected to increase 3.25 times from 2006 to 2030. Generally, energy consumption is expected to increase rapidly due to economic and population growth. Energy consumption in the industrial sector is rapidly increasing due to the development of the mining and quarry industry in mining sectors. GHG emissions in energy sectors from 2006 to 2030 are expected to increase by 4 times.

According to the”Mongolian Livestock” National programme (State Great Khural 2010), the livestock population will be 36 million in 2021, in order to comply with the actual pasture carrying capacity and to prevent desertification. Therefore, GHG emissions are not expected to increase significantly. However, as of 2014, the total livestock population had already reached 50 million, causing a significant increase of GHG emissions, especially methane emissions, in the future.

In 2030, GHG emissions in the industry sector are expected to increase by a factor of 2.5, and in the waste sector by 2 times, compared to 2006. GHG removals in LULUCF will be reduced by a factor of 3 in the projected period (Figure 8.3 and Figure 8.4).

Several studies were undertaken to project GHG emissions after the publication of the Second National Communication in 2010. These include GHG emission projections in the energy sector prepared for a development of the national”Green Development Policy” (Dorjpurev, 2013), and also the energy sector projections prepared by Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) in 2014.The comparison of those projections is shown in Table 8.14.

050

100150200250300350400450

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Inde

x(2

006=

100)

Energy

Industry

Agriculture

LULUCF

Waste

Figure 8.3. Projections of GHG emissions and removals (sector) Source: Mongolia Second National Communication, 2010.


58

Chapter 8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Inde

x (2

006=

100)

CO2

CH4

Figure 8.4. GHG emission projections (by gas types)Source: Mongolia Second National Communication, 2010.

Table 8.14. GHG Emission projections from Energy sector prepared in three different studies, million tonnes CO2-eq.

Documents 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

SNC

Consumption 7,8 10,4 13,7 17,7 -

Supply 12,5 15,6 19,2 24,1 -

Total 20,2 25,9 32,8 41,8 -

Green Strategy

Consumption 6,9 8,9 11,3 14,0 -

Supply 11,0 16,5 20,5 26,0 -

Total 17,9 25,4 31,8 40,0 -

GGGI

Consumption 9,0 11,9 14,8 18,2 21,8

Supply 11,4 24,8 27,8 30,1 33,8

Total 20,4 36,8 42,6 48,3 55,6


Figure 8.5 shows that previously stated three different projections are rather similar. The average of those projections shows that energy sector GHG emissions will reach 20 million

59


2026

33

42

1825

32 4020

3743

4820

29

36

43

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sion

s, m

illio

n to

ns,C

O2-

eq

SNC Green strategy GGGI Average

Figure 8.5. Comparison of GHG emission projections prepared in three different studies

8.3. Assumptions and methods for establishing BAU emissions in the energy sector

8.3.1. Method

The study of energy sector BAU emissions employs a bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy and GHG-reduction scenarios. This type of analysis is commonly used by countries in their energy and climate change mitigation planning. In a bottom-up analysis, energy demand is specified according to assumptions on how underlying drivers (e.g. population, mineral production) may evolve, and does not take into account responses to economic changes (such as changes in consumer spending or other macroeconomic variables) that may result from the measures introduced. This approach is straightforward, and is more transparent to analysts and decision makers, than more complicated methods involving economic models. BAU scenarios were assembled in the LEAP model1.

8.3.2. Assumptions

The energy consumption in the household sector depends on the growth rates of the population, the number of households and income level. GHG emissions from the residential sector are projected to increase, largely due to the increase of population with a growth rate of 3%. Energy consumption in the household sector will increase by a factor of 1.84 in 2020 and by 2.55 in 2030 from the base year of 2006. Energy consumption in the industrial sector is rapidly increasing due to the development of the mining and quarrying industry in mining projects such as Oyu Tolgoi, Tavan Tolgoi and other mining projects, especially from 2014 to 2020.

The transportation sector is also projected to exhibit a high growth rate of GHG emissions in the energy sector due to the relatively high increase in the number of vehicles and the demand for freight transport.

In order to meet growing energy demand, new energy sources such as a Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP) in Ulaanbaatar with a capacity of 300MW, Wind farm in Salhit Uul near Ulaanbaatar with a capacity of 50MW, Mogoin Gol thermal power plant of 60MW, Hushuut thermal power plant of 36MW and Tavan Tolgoi thermal power plant of 300-600MW are expected

1 See http://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=47 for a full description of the LEAP model.


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to be established according to the infrastructure development programme of the Government planned to be realized in few years. It is also assumed to rehabilitate and increase the capacity of existing power plants.

8.3.3. Energy sector (power and heat) Business as Usual (BAU) or Reference Scenario

During the preparation of the INDC submission, Mongolia decided to use BAU projections from the Second National Communication as the official BAU scenario for its INDC. According to this, BAU projection total GHG emissions in the energy sector accounts for 25.94Gg CO2-eq. in 2020 and 41.82Gg of CO2-eq. in 2030 (Table 8.15).

Table 8.15. GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.) from energy sector for BAU scenario

Specification 2010 2015 2020 2030

Demand 4.52 7.78 10.37 17.69

Transformation 8.10 12.45 15.57 24.13

Total 12.61 20.23 25.94 41.82

Source: LEAP calculation for Second National Communication

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2026 2028 2030

Thou

sand

tonn

es o

f CO

2-eq

.

Demand Transformation

Figure 8.6. GHG emissions from energy demand and energy transformationSource: LEAP calculation for Second National Communication

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-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Thou

sand

tonn

es o

f CO

2-eq

.

Baganuur PP CHP2 CHP3 CHP4

CHPChoibalsan CHPDalanzadgad CHPDarkhan CHPErdenet

CPH5 Coal Fired PP Diesel Hushuut PP

Mogoin gol PP Tavan tolgoi PP Uhaa hudag PP

Figure 8.7. GHG emissions from power plantsSource: LEAP calculation for Second National Communication

8.3.4. Energy sector (transport) Business as Usual (BAU) or Reference Scenario

Table 8.16 shows expected growth of GHG emissions from the transport sector, caused by constant population growth and socio-economic development.

Table 8.16. GHG emissions caused from transportation sector, kt CO2

Branches 2015 2020 2025 2030

Freight 1,167.0 1,572.0 2,118.0 2,854.0Passenger 1,070.0 1,394.0 1,762.0 2,177.0Total 2,236.0 2,966.0 3,880.0 5,031.0

Source: Second National Communication, LEAP model calculations

8.4. Non-energy sector

8.4.1. Industrial sector

Energy consumption in the industrial sector is rapidly increasing due to the development of mining and quarrying, as well as other industries. The projection of GHG emissions from these industries is included in the energy sector above. Therefore, in this sector cement and lime production as well as potential emissions from consumption of HFCs are presented. Due to an increase in construction, urban and industrial development, cement production is expected to increase by 4.1 fold in 2020 and by 6 fold in 2030 compared to the 2006 level. While the production of lime is projected to increase


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by 2 fold in 2020 and by 3 fold in 2030 compared to the 2006 level. It is assumed that the potential emissions from the consumption of HFCs will be increased by 2.3 in 2030 from the base year 2006, due to an increase of different kinds of refrigerators and cooling systems.

8.4.2. Agriculture

The most GHG emissions emitted from agriculture is methane. Enteric fermentation and manure management are major sources of methane. The projection of methane emissions from agriculture sector depends on changes of livestock population. According to Mongolia National livestock programme, the population of livestock is intended to be decreased from the 43 million in 2008 down to 36 million in 2021 to comply with the actual pasture carrying capacity and to prevent the desertification (State Great Khural, 2010).

8.4.3. Land use, land-use change and forestry

Crop cultivation plays an important role in sustaining self-sufficiency in foodstuffs. After the privatization of the large state-controlled farms in the 1990s, crop production fell sharply, a decline blamed on a lack of management skills, funds, and technologies. However, as a result of “Third agriculture campaign” launched by the Government of Mongolia, the production of cereals, potatoes and vegetables is being increased rapidly since 2008. In 2009, Mongolia produced 255 thousand tonnes of cereals while the production of cereals was 138.6 thousand tonnes in 2006. It is projected that cultivated land for the crop would increase from 162,040 ha in 2006 up to 400,000 ha in 2020. However, the total cultivated area including crop rotation area would not exceed 650,000 ha in 2020. It is assumed that the lands used for industrial mining would be increased by 12% annually. Also, the forest plantation between 2010 and 2020 is proposed to increase by 10% per year while annual biomass consumption from stocks would be reduced by 4% annually.

8.4.4. Waste

GHG emissions from solid waste, domestic and commercial waste water are expected to increase by 3% annually between 2000 and 2020. Population, lifestyle, water consumption level and other relevant measures would directly affect the amount of GHGs emitted from domestic sewage. However, future changes in lifestyle and increase of urban population are projected to result in a growth rate of methane emissions from domestic sewage. GHG emissions from industrial wastewater, which is influenced by the amount of industrial water converted into wastewater, are also estimated to growth at a rate of 5% annually.

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CHAPTER 9. OPTIONS FOR MITIGATION COMPONENT OF THE INDC

The Lima Call for Action invited countries to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) in order to reach the achievement of the major objective as set out in Article 2 of the Convention. Article 2 of the Convention outlines the international agreement to achieve the stabilisation of GHG concentrations at a level which avoids dangerous anthropogenic climatic change. The INDC process, therefore, concerns itself first and foremost with climate change mitigation action; it is an opportunity for Parties to communicate what they consider to be their appropriate contribution to the achievement of the global goal, given their respective responsibilities and capabilities. It is also an opportunity, for Parties who wish to do so, to communicate the financial and technical support needs that are required in order to increase the contribution to emission reductions.

This chapter describes issues relevant to Mongolia on the possible types of INDC mitigation contributions, their format, and some technical and practical considerations relevant to the proposed INDC document.

9.1. Type and format of mitigation contribution

9.1.1. Type of mitigation contribution

Countries are free to propose any type of mitigation contribution that they consider to be most appropriate to their national circumstances.

The following list outlines the broadest categories of INDC types which Parties may consider using to structure their contributions. These types are explored in further details below:

• Economy-wide GHG emissions target: e.g. reduce national GHG emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels (e.g. EU target).

• Sectoral GHG emissions target: e.g. reduce emissions in the energy sector by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

• Decarbonization indicator: e.g. reduce national emissions intensity in terms of emissions per unit of GDP by 35% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels; increase the share of renewable electricity generation to 40% by 2030.

• Policies and measures: e.g. develop and/or implement specific policies or specific actions with a climate change mitigation impact.

These formats may also be used in combination with each other to provide further details and transparency. Although most existing submissions to the UNFCCC INDC portal include economy-wide GHG emission targets, NewClimate Institute research indicates that fewer than half of countries worldwide are eventually likely to develop such targets, with either countries likely to present their contributions either in the form of sectoral targets or a list of quantified or unquantified policies and measures.

The type of INDC chosen should be based largely upon the respective capabilities of the country. In this context, the capability may refer to resources available for INDC preparation, data availability, the availability of existing analysis on mitigation scenarios, and, to an extent, the resources available for the implementation of mitigation measures. The type of format for the INDC is not necessarily linked to the degree of mitigation ambition; Parties with limited resources for the implementation of mitigation measures may still present economy-wide targets if they have the required capability to do so. On the other hand, it should be considered that carefully planned and clearly communicated policies and measures may have a greater mitigation impact and may attract more international support than hastily constructed economy-wide targets which are unclear and/or less efficient in their implementation.


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9.1.2. Economy-wide GHG emission target

The use of an economy-wide target provides the clearest communication of the INDC impact, and as such it is generally preferred across the international community. However, such an expression requires the sufficient availability of data to create a reliable bottom-up calculation of emission scenarios for all sectors. Countries with limited capability in this regard are not expected to produce this type of target, as its formulation in the absence of sufficient baseline information may lead to INDCs that are unrealistic, unachievable, or incomparable.

The international community would consider the unconditional contribution fulfilled as long as the final result of the stated emissions reduction is achieved. Failure to reach the quantified target will result in the contribution being considered unfulfilled, regardless of the number of policies, measures and actions that have been implemented. Although this type of target provides the clearest information to the international community with regard to the 2°C goal, it was agreed that this was an unsuitable format for Mongolia by the national technical team for the following reasons:

• Mongolia is a country in transition; the future trajectory of the country’s development is less predictable than for most developed countries. An absolute emission target may over-burden Mongolia if the development of the economy continues at a rate much higher than planned. Similarly, this type of target could lock-in lower than intended ambition in the case that the actual development trajectory falls short of the projections.

• Whilst the data availability is very good for some sectors in Mongolia, such as the energy sector, in some others sectors the availability of data and emission reduction potential is not fully comprehensive. Proceeding with an economy-wide target would present a risk given the uncertainty of the supporting information.

9.1.3. Sectoral GHG emission target

Sectoral targets may be used by countries who wish to express an aggregated target, but do not have sufficient capabilities to do so in all sectors. In this case, mitigation scenarios can be expressed as aggregated GHG emission targets for one or several sectors, whilst other sectors that the country still wishes to include in its INDC could be included through the expression of individual policies and measures or excluded altogether.

As per the economy-wide target, the international community would consider the unconditional contribution fulfilled only if the final result of the stated emissions reduction is achieved. Due to the good detail of information available for the energy sector, this type of INDC could be technically feasible for Mongolia. However, it was not deemed the most appropriate construction for Mongolia, since the uncertainty regarding the development of national circumstances entails a risk if bound to a specific quantified target.

9.1.4. Decarbonization indicator

Use of a decarbonization indicator, such as the share of renewables in the energy system, or emissions intensity of energy, may be a suitable expression of the INDC for Parties that are interested to put forward a specific quantified decarbonization target, but who do not wish to be bound to a specific GHG emission outcome due to the unpredictability of national growth and development in the coming decades. This type of target is particularly suitable for developing countries with a great potential for short and mid-term economic growth, especially those where the energy sector continues to rely largely on traditional fuels. It provides a statement of intent to continue to grow a more sustainable economy. However, it does not provide the international community with assurances on the actual GHG emissions outcome.

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There could be several options for this type of target for Mongolia: energy emissions intensity target for the energy sector, emissions intensity per capita, emissions intensity per unit of GDP, or share of renewables in the electricity generation.

Fulfilment of the contribution in the eyes of the international community would be based upon reaching the decarbonization indicator target, not upon the implementation of the underlying policies from which is was calculated. This presents some potential risks/implications for Mongolia: if the complete implementation of these measures (e.g. new renewable capacity installation) does not create the anticipated effect in terms of the amount of energy generated, for example, Mongolia would need to take more actions to meet the target. Furthermore, if energy sector demand increased at a higher than expected rate, more renewable electricity generation would need to be installed to maintain the balance indicated by the decarbonization indicator. Due to the risk of being bound to the achievement of the target, this type was not considered the most appropriate construction for Mongolia.

9.1.5. Policies and measures

This option is suitable for countries where limited data availability prevents the development of reliable bottom-up calculations for emission reduction potential in any sectors. The format is also suitable for countries who do not wish to be bound to a quantified target, but would rather be bound”only” to the execution of activities. It is highly advisable if presenting policies and measures to include an illustrative indication of the potential scale of the mitigation impact, as far as the data allows. This enhances transparency and international understanding of the contribution, and will also attract much greater interest from potential funders.

The international community would consider the unconditional contribution fulfilled as long as the measures have been implemented, regardless of the outcomes of these measures or changes in uncertain factors such as economic development. Use of this format of INDC need not restrict the ambition of the contribution, as ambitious policies and actions can be put forward.

Due to limited data availability in some sectors, uncertain development of national circumstces, the risk entailed by specific quantified targets, and the potential for ambitious action through policies and measures, the mitigation team along with the consulted stakeholders deemed a ”policies and measures” approach to be the most appropriate construction for the mitigation contribution of Mongolia’s INDC.

9.1.6. Format of mitigation contribution

Countries are free to submit their INDCs in any format which they consider to be appropriate. However, for the sake of transparency and comparability it is preferable for countries to follow a common format. There is a general consensus on the elements that INDCs should ideally contain, and several organisations have developed templates for INDC submissions, which are likely to be widely used.

Most existing official submissions, as of August 2015, contained concisely summarised information on the mitigation contribution, occupying around 3-5 pages including a number of specific elements for transparent communication.

Mongolia’s proposed mitigation contribution also follows this format and uses international templates for maximum clarity and transparency.


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9.2. Timing considerations for mitigation contribution

9.2.1. Target year for activities

Countries can choose a post-2020 target year for their actions. To date, countries have chosen 2025 and/or 2030 as target dates. Some developing countries and environmental NGOs argue that a short timeframe for developed countries (i.e. 2025) allows for more frequent review and increasing ambition over time. On the other hand, a 2030 target provides longer-term strategy and investment signals.

The target dates for the individual policies and measures contained in Mongolia’s mitigation contribution vary depending on the target date of the original strategy. For the most important actions in the contribution, the target date for full implementation of the activities is 2030.

9.2.2. Period of implementation

The international climate change agreement to be reached in Paris in December 2015 is a post-2020 agreement. That is to say, that the agreement will be based around common post-2020 international targets.

However, this does not mean that the proposed national contributions should only include measures to be implemented post-2020. For countries with internationally-communicated climate change targets for 2020 it is logical that only post-2020 actions are relevant, since pre-2020 actions are covered under the existing target. However, for countries without existing internationally-communicated climate change targets for 2020, all activity that takes place up to the date of the target is relevant to the achievement of the target, including measures that begin pre-2020.

As Mongolia does not have a formal internationally communicated climate change target for any previous date, all activities are immediately relevant to the achievement of the implementation of the listed policies and measures. As such, the INDC includes the main policies and measures that will be implemented between 2015 and 2030.

9.3. Unilateral and supported contributions

Some countries have indicated that they wish to present a conditional contribution, based upon specific conditions regarding the availability of international finance, or the level of ambition proposed by other countries. For this reason, some countries are expected to put forwards two sets of potential contributions, typically referred to in the international community as unconditional or unilateral contributions, and conditional or supported contributions.

For these countries, a major challenge in determining an INDC is to identify how much should be done unilaterally by the country and how much could be done with the support of the international community.

A conceptual approach that could be used to identify both the conditional and unconditional pledge is by developing analysis to determine what should a country do, given its responsibility and capability, and what could the country do, given its national circumstances.

Many developing countries will define their unconditional contributions based on an assessment of the impacts of existing ongoing programmes and plans with climate/energy implications, alongside other measures that the country is able to put forward unilaterally under its best efforts. For many developing countries, additional measures put forward unilaterally are likely to be measures that align very closely to national development priorities, and therefore entail considerable other benefits for the country.

Other potential mitigation actions that cannot be covered as part of the unilateral contribution

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could be considered a conditional addition, based on the receipt of sufficient support. Here, a country has the opportunity to state a list of actions (or collectively, an enhanced target) that it may implement if sufficient external support is received. Showing ambition in the unilateral and the conditional parts makes a country attractive for international funding for the implementation of actions, and these actions may have major synergies with the national development agenda.

In Mongolia, stakeholders communicated concern at the wording of unilateral or unconditional contributions, since the ongoing national climate change strategy is dependent on the continuation of existing support from various sources. Therefore, the wording of this split contribution was adjusted: the ‘national contribution’, which contains the main policies and measures proposed under Mongolia’s INDC, is “contingent upon the continuation of international support to complement domestic efforts”; an ‘additional actions’ section highlights further measures that Mongolia would also be “interested to pursue”.

9.4. Political and legal implications of the mitigation component

INDCs are provisional contributions, not commitments. They are designed as an input to the negotiation of the 2015 climate change agreement in Paris. Upon their submission to the UNFCCC, these documents remain provisional contributions, not legally-binding commitments. It is quite probable, but not certain, that INDCs (intended NDCs) will become anchored in an agreement to be negotiated in Paris, but the original INDCs will not be legally binding, and can be adjusted at any time until a final agreement is reached. However, it is possible that final INDCs anchored in the Paris agreement may become legally binding (depending on how Parties choose to negotiate the structure of the agreement), and so it is of key importance that all Parties receive provisional political approval for their intended INDCs in advance. Countries are expected to go through this political process in advance of their submission to the UNFCCC.

9.5. Type and format of Mongolia’s mitigation contribution

A blend of approaches based on policies and measures, with illustrative information.

The mitigation component of Mongolia’s contribution is based on a policies and measures approach. That is to say, fulfilment of the INDC will be considered complete if the policies and actions listed in the INDC are implemented. The proposed policies and measures represent the ambitious plans of existing national strategy and legislation, including the state policy for the energy sector (Parliament resolution No. 63, 2015), Urban public transport investment programme (2015), the National action plan for climate change (Government resolution No. 171, 2012), and the “Mongolian Livestock” national programme (Parliament resolution No. 23, 2010).

Furthermore, Mongolia’s contribution includes elements of the other types of contribution, for illustrative purposes. The potential impacts of the proposed policies and measures are calculated and indicated, presenting the potential sectoral and economy-wide GHG emissions impact. Furthermore, the policies and measures themselves include a decarbonization indicator in the form of a renewable energy target.

The type and format of Mongolia’s mitigation contribution are a good practice for the following reasons:

• The proposed policies and measures are ambitious yet grounded in national strategy and legislation, and therefore realistic.

• The proposed policies and measures hold major synergies with the national development strategy and non-climate related objectives. Implementation of the INDC measures will assist with the achievement of these objectives, and the INDC plans will help to mainstream climate considerations in development planning in all sectors.


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• The type and format of the mitigation contribution are highly transparent in its potential impact (through illustration of potential sectoral and economy-wide GHG emission impact), whilst managing the risk by being bound only to the implementation of the actions rather than the achievement of the expected outcomes.

• The format for presenting the mitigation contribution follows closely the examples of existing submissions and uses international templates for maximum clarity and transparency.

• The INDC highlights, in addition to the main policies and measures that are included in the national contribution, additional areas of action that it would be interested to explore further in the case that resources and capacity are available. In doing so, the INDC shows both a way that Mongolia can be supported by international funds to increase its mitigation level and also shows how Mongolia intends to expand its existing targets and sectoral coverage in the future, as capacity and resources for climate change mitigation planning within other sectors is enhanced.

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CHAPTER 10. MONGOLIA’S INDC: MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION

By 2030, Mongolia intends to contribute to global efforts to mitigate GHG emissions by implementing the policies and measures listed in Table 10.1, contingent upon the continuation of international support to complement domestic efforts. These policies and measures were identified by technical experts, in consultation with key Mongolian stakeholders, and subjected to a series of validation meetings and workshops in 2015.

Table 10.1. Proposed policies and measures for Mongolia’s INDC

Sector Measure Policy/strategy document

Energy (power and heat)

Increase renewable electricity capacity from 7.62% in 2014 to 20% by 2020 and to 30% by 2030 as a share of total electricity generation capacity.

- State policy on energy (Parliament resolution No. 63, 2015);

- Green development policy, 2014

Reduce electricity transmission losses from 13.7% in 2014 to 10.8% by 2020 and to 7.8% by 2030.

Reduce building heat loss by 20% by 2020 and by 40% by 2030, compared to 2014 levels.

Reduce internal energy use of Combined Heat and Power plants (improved plant efficiency) from 14.4% in 2014 to 11.2% by 2020 and 9.14% by 2030.

Implement advanced technology in energy production such as super critical pressure coal combustion technology by 2030.

Energy (Transport)

Improve national paved road network. Upgrading/Paving 8000 km by 2016, 11000 km by 2021.

- National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC), 2011;

- Urban public transport investment programme, 2015;

- Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), 2010;

- Mid-term new development programme, 2010

Improve Ulaanbaatar city road network to decrease all traffic by 30-40% by 2023.

Increase the share of private hybrid road vehicles from approximately 6.5% in 2014 to approximately 13% by 2030.

Shift from liquid fuel to LPG for vehicles in Ulaanbaatar and aimag (province) centres by improving taxation and environmental fee system.

Improve enforcement mechanism of standards for road vehicles and non-road based transport.

Industrial sector

Reduce emissions in the cement industry through upgrading the processing technology from wet- to dry-processing and through the construction of a new cement plant with dry processing up to 2030.

- NAMAs, 2010;

- NAPCC, 2011;

- Government resolution No. 171, 2012: Building materials programme

AgricultureMaintain livestock population at appropriate levels according to the pasture carrying capacity.

- “Mongolian livestock” national programme, 2010


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Mongolia has also identified a series of additional mitigation actions in:• Reduce fuel use in individual households through improving stove efficiency (with

co-benefit of air pollution reduction), • Transport (development of Bus Rapid Transit [BRT] system and improvement of

the public transport system in Ulaanbaatar), • Agriculture (development of a comprehensive plan for emission reductions in the

livestock sub-sector for implementation between 2020 and 2030),• Waste sector (development of a waste management plan, including recycling,

waste-to-energy, and best management practices), and• Industry (motor-efficiency improvements, improved housekeeping).

Furthermore, for forestry, a programme is underway in Mongolia to develop a detailed inventory along with the identification of mitigation options for this sector. In future communications, Mongolia intends to include actions for mitigation in the forestry sector to reduce GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation by 2% by 2020 and 5% by 2030 (according to State Policy on Forest, 2015).

These measures are largely in-line with the NAMAs submitted at the Conference of the Parties (COP) 15 Meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark in December 2009. Mongolia expressed its intention to agree to the Copenhagen Accord, and subsequently Mongolia submitted a list of proposed NAMAs to the UNFCCC secretariat in January 2010. In its list of NAMAs, Mongolia submitted 22 mitigation options in six sectors towards reducing GHG emissions (Table 10.2).

Table 10.2. List of NAMAs of Mongolia to the Copenhagen Accord

Sectors Technologies

Energy supply

• PV and Solar heating• Wind power generators and Wind farms• Hydropower plants• Coal beneficiation• Coal briquetting• Improve efficiency of existing HOBs and install boilers with new design and high efficiency• Convert hot water boilers into small capacity thermal power plants• Change fuels for household stoves and furnaces• Modernize existing and implement the new design for household stoves and furnaces • Improve efficiency and reduce internal use in CHPs • Use of electricity from grid for individual households for local heating in cities

Building

• Improve district heating system in buildings• Install heat and hot water metres in apartments• Make insulation improvements for existing buildings and implement new energy efficient standards for new buildings• Improve lighting efficiency in buildings

Industry• Improve housekeeping practices• Implement motor efficiency improvements• Introducing dry-processing in cement industry

Transport • Use more fuel efficient vehicles

Agriculture • Limit the increase of the total number of livestock by increasing the productivity of each type of animal, especially cattle

Forestry• Improve forest management• Reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, improve sustainable management of forests and enhance forest carbon stocks

Source: http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/items/5265.php

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CHAPTER 11. ASSESSMENT OF MITIGATION IMPACT, FAIRNESS AND AMBITION OF THE INDC

11.1. Mitigation impact of INDC The emissions inventory for 2010 was compiled using IPCC 2006 guidelines and GWP values from IPCC AR4, as described in Mongolia’s Second National Communication. The BAU baseline was defined according to the methodology given in Mongolia’s Second National Communication. Indicative emissions reductions of the measures in table 10.1 were determined using LEAP modelling (energy: power and heat, energy: transport), 2006 IPCC GPG (energy: transport), and Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (industry). Agricultural emission reduction measures could not be estimated due to a lack of available background information, and are thus not included in the indicative estimate.

11.1.1. GHG Mitigation Scenarios in energy sector

The following mitigation measures have been modelled in a mitigation scenario using LEAP and correspond to the mitigation contribution of the INDC.

Renewable energy scenario

The RENEWABLE scenario comprises all individual measures listed in Table 11.1 and has been calculated separately as the effects of individual measures cannot be added up. Calculation results are shown in Table below:

Table 11.1. Capacity of renewable energy sources for electricity generation, MW

No. Name of energy sources

Newly installed capacity, MW

Source2015-2023 2024-2030

1

Hydropower plants:

Eg HPP 315 -State policy on energy sector (Parliament resolution No. 63, 2015), Ministry of Energy (MOE)

Erdeneburen HPP in Khovd river 60 - State policy on energy sector (Parliament

resolution No. 63, 2015), MOE

HPP in Selenge river - 300 State policy on energy sector (Parliament


2

Wind Parks:

Oyutolgoi wind park 102 - Feasibility study (FS) approved by MOE

Sainshand wind park - 52 MOE

Wind Park in Gobi region - 200 State policy on energy sector (Parliament



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3

Large scale solar PV:

Solar PV in Darkhan city 10 - FS approved by MOE

Large scale solar PV in Gobi region - 100 State policy on energy sector (Parliament


Solar PV in Taishir 10 - Government programme, MOE

Solar PV in Durgun 10 - Government programme, MOE

Solar PV in Western region 15 - Government programme, MOE

Energy efficiency scenario

Assumptions for energy efficiency measures are shown in Table 11.4 and Table 11.5.

Table 11.2. Assumptions for reduction of electricity transmission and distribution of power plant own use losses and building energy efficiency

Activities 2014 2023 2030

Electricity transmission and distribution losses 13.7 10.8 7.8

Power plant (station) own use 14.4 11.2 9.14

Building energy efficiency 0 20 40

Source: State policy on energy sector (Parliament resolution No.63, 2015)

Table 11.3. Assumptions for power plant electric efficiency improvement, %

Power plants Reference (BAU) scenario (high pressure technology)

Mitigation (EE) scenario(super critical pressure technology)

Tavan Tolgoi Power Plant 35 43

Baganuur Power plant 35 43

Source: Namkhainyam B., Environment, energy and technology, Ulaanbaatar, 2014, page 171.

Calculation results from LEAP are shown in Table 11.4.

Total GHG emission reductions in energy sector

The combined effect of the different measures elaborated above is represented in the following section. The total effect of each scenario is given separately as well as the effects of totalling scenarios as the effects of individual scenarios cannot be added up. The total effect results in an emission reduction of 4.9 million tonnes CO2-eq. by 2030. The table below illustrates the cumulative effects of all of the measures.

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Table 11.4. GHG emissions in different scenarios, million tonnes CO2-eq.

Scenarios 2015 2020 2025 2030

Reference (BAU) scenario 20.23 25.93 32.80 41.81

Mitigation scenarios

Building Energy efficiency (EE) improvement 20.23 25.83 32.07 40.34

Transmission and distribution losses improvement 20.21 25.66 32.20 40.86

Station own use improvement 20.21 25.63 32.19 40.95

Power plant EE improvement 20.23 25.58 32.35 41.21

EE Total 20.19 25.03 31.14 39.52

Hydro Power Plant 20.23 25.87 32.21 40.68

Wind Park 20.23 25.78 32.58 41.21

Solar PV 20.23 25.90 32.74 41.56

RENEWABLE TOTAL 20.23 25.69 31.86 39.96

TOTAL 20.19 24.78 30.21 36.93

Source: LEAP calculation

11.1.2. Energy (transport) emissions reductions calculation

11.1.2.1 Business as Usual (BAU)

Mongolia has a wide territory with sparse population. Thus the transport sector is one of the important sectors in the economy. 2006 IPCC GPG and LEAP modelling were used for emissions and reductions estimates for the energy (transport) sector and results compared to the BAU baseline.

Based on the assumptions that as a result of an implementation of the policies listed in the Table 10.1, it is agreed among experts and stakeholder the emissions reduction will be 10% by 2020, 25% by 2025 and 35% by 2030. Assumption for the estimation include comparison of emissions from paved and unpaved roads, mid-to-low speeds (e.g. between 20km/h and 40km/h, decreases in emissions are roughly proportional to decreases in journey times (according to analysis from http://www.dcsc.tudelft.nl/~bdeschutter/pub/rep/09_004.pdf), percentage of population live in urban area and journeys in the city center etc.

Some countries without emissions standards have estimated emissions reductions from the introduction of fuel economy or emissions standards of around 25%-35%. Given the lack of information available for fuel economy or vehicle emissions in Mongolia, it is conservatively assumed that the design and implementation of an emissions standard could reduce road transport emissions by 20%.

Table 11.5. GHG emission reduction, million tonnes CO2-eq.

Sector 2015 2020 2025 2030

Energy-transport 0 297 970 1760


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11.1.3. Industrial measure (cement) emissions reductions calculation

Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories used for emissions reductions estimates for the industrial measure (cement processing). Calculation based on the following assumptions: (1) the recent annual use of cement, which is 3.5 million tonnes, (2) all planned dry technology plants are in place by 2030. This results in a 0.7 million tonnes CO2-eq. per annum reduction in 2030.

11.1.4. Agriculture emissions reductions calculation

Agricultural emission reduction measures could not be estimated due to a lack of available background information, and are thus not included in the indicative estimate.

11.2. Net emissions reductions

The cumulative impact of the measures listed in Table 10.1 is estimated to result in approximately an annual reduction of 7.3 million tonnes CO2-eq. of economy-wide emissions in 2030, corresponding to a 14% reduction compared to a BAU scenario, excluding LULUCF.

20

30

40

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tota

l GHG

em

issio

ns (e

xcl.

LULU

CF)

(MtC

O2-e

q.)

BAUMitigation scenario

Energy: power and heat4.9 MtCO2-eq.

Industry0.7 MtCO2-eq.

Energy: transport1.7 MtCO2-eq.

Potential reductions

Figure 11.1. Indicative potential emissions reductions of the measures compared to BAU emissions

11.3. Fairness and ambition of INDC

Mongolia has a low responsibility for climate change mitigation in terms of its historic emissions, and limited capacity due to relatively challenging environmental conditions including a long lasting heating season, a coal-based electricity production system, a lack of access to cleaner fossil fuels and a highly dispersed population particularly in remote areas (lack of access to the electricity grid). This has led to a high emission per capita ratio. Mongolia is committed to the decarbonization of its growing economy and intends to reduce its emissions intensity by implementing the proposed measures.

The proposed targets have their origins in the Green Development Policy of Mongolia, which is an over-arching and comprehensive approach delivering low-carbon economic growth taking into account national circumstances in the context of its sustainable development. This ambitious strategy mainstreams both mitigation and adaptation in a way to reduce social and environmental vulnerability. Parliamentary approval of the most significant energy measures, and corresponding commitment to implement an important part of the mitigation actions with domestic means demonstrates the ambition of the Mongolian Government.

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CHAPTER 12. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION FOR THE MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION

12.1. Anchoring the mitigation contribution in legislation

Parties are free to determine how their INDC is embedded in national legislation. It is considered good practice for Parties to receive internal political approval for adoption of the INDC from the appropriate level of governance prior to submission to the UNFCCC, and for countries to embed the INDC in national strategy and/or policy after finalization of the Paris agreement. Parties are likely to do this in different ways: China embedded its pledge from Copenhagen in its Five Year Plan; South Korea and Indonesia have embedded their targets previously in a designated climate change policy; some other countries have embedded specific components of their targets in various different sector-specific policies, such as the energy policy. Embedding the INDC in national legislation in some form or another has the key advantage of reducing the risk of reversibility after government change. It also provides a strong signal and certainty to the market/investors as well as the donor community, who also consider this to be good practice.

For Mongolia’s mitigation contribution, it is a great strength that the proposed policies and measures have already been introduced as legislation and/or proposed in national development strategies or plans, including the following:

• Green development policy, 2014 (2014-2030)• National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC), 2011 (2011-2021) • State policy on energy, 2015 (2015-2030)• National agriculture development policy, 2010 (2010-2021) • State policy on forest, 2015 (2016-2030)• MDGs based comprehensive national development programme, 2008 (2008-

2021)• Law on renewable energy, 2015• Law on energy, 2015 • State policy on Industry, 2015 (2015-2030)

As such, the various policies and measures are well anchored in national strategy and the responsibilities for implementation are mostly already identified within each of the respective policy or strategy documents.

12.2. Obtaining international support

In order to successfully implement the mitigation contribution in the INDC, Mongolia will seek international funding and capacity to complement domestic allocations and efforts. For the additional measures listed outside of the main national contribution, new sources of support will need to be identified and engaged, in addition to the continuation of existing support streams which will be required to implement the main proposed national contribution.

In a first step to achieving this, it is anticipated that a detailed plan will be elaborated to articulate the specific needs of each proposed measure under the INDC contribution, and to communicate clearly the potential supportive role of the international community. As a preliminary indication, some specific measures that will be important to reach the proposed targets are described in Table 12.1, with estimates of investment needs. The cumulative investment needs of these measures for which costs could be identified is at least 3.5 billion USD. However, these preliminary indications are provided for transparency and initial planning purposes, and should be replaced by a more thorough analysis in the next steps. Such analysis should also articulate clearly the specific financing modalities: it is anticipated that the majority of the investment requirements will be met by the private sector, leveraged by public sector funds.


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Table 12.1. Policies and measures for implementation up to 2030

Stated contribution Specific measures Investment needs USD Source

Increase the share of renewable electricity capacity to 30% of total electricity generation capacity by 2030, from 7.62% in 2014.

Installation of 675MW capacity large hydro power facilities. 1,350 mln

LEAP analysis with costs based on average of IPCC data2

Installation of 354MW wind power facilities. 584 mln

Installation of 145MW solar PV power facilities. 573 mln

Reduce building heat loss by 40% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

Improved insulation of 300 existing panel apartment buildings in Ulaanbaatar.

90 mln

Technology Needs Assessment (TNA), 2013

Improved efficiency of coal fired heating plants and thermal power plants.

Improved efficiency of coal-fired power plants. 900 mln TNA, 2013

A large volume of finance for both climate change mitigation and adaptation is expected to become available through the Green Climate Fund (GCF). In this regard, Mongolia can already begin to communicate preliminary support needs to the GCF, and Mongolia could begin to undertake GCF-readiness activities so that it will be in a position to submit bankable support proposals to the GCF in 2016 and 2017.

Furthermore, the use of crediting mechanisms may be a potential means to finance and implement the proposed measures. A number of regional and international crediting mechanisms which may be attractive for Mongolia are under development, and discussions at the international level continue on the potential future global mechanisms, including the New Market Mechanism (NMM). More clarity on the likely trajectory of the international discussions in this regard will be likely following the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) in Paris, December 2015; Mongolia will then take stock of the options available from market mechanisms as part of its detailed implementation strategy.

12.3. Next steps for implementation

The INDC preparation process has built momentum and common understanding for climate change strategy and policy across broader governmental actors and non-governmental stakeholders. It is a key for the momentum of this multi-stakeholder and inter-ministerial process to be maintained following the COP21 in Paris. From early 2016 Mongolia should begin an inter-ministerial process for the development of a comprehensive plan for the implementation of the INDC. Activities for the development of this plan might include:

2 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/SRREN_FD_SPM_final.pdf

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• More detailed analysis and development of each individual proposed policy and measure, including precise technical requirements, cost and impact analyses (including the analysis of potential non-GHG related benefits), development of potential financing models, and implementation plans.

• A detailed roadmap with a timeline for phased implementation and measurable milestones.

• Design and implementation of the framework and infrastructure required for effective MRV and progress review. In this regard, MRV infrastructure may hold major synergies with other non-climate related objectives and should be designed in parallel with other sector-specific processes.

• Plans should be devised for the sustainable earmarking of a proportion of the national budget for the continuation of national efforts to implement the activities.

• Proposals for support should be prepared and submitted to existing and new sources of climate and development finance.

A first step of the compilation of a comprehensive implementation strategy should be the identification of responsibilities. Experiences from Mongolia and other countries in the development of climate change strategies show that an inter-ministerial process, perhaps led by a high-level inter-ministerial steering committee, is a highly effective means of mainstreaming climate change policies within sectoral plans and ensuring the identification and exploitation of synergies where possible.


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CHAPTER 13. TRACKING AND MONITORING PROGRESS

13.1. Sectors and gases covered

In 2000, Mongolia has adopted the first National Action Plans on Climate Change and updated in 2010. Also, Mongolia has presented two National Communications with their respective greenhouse gas inventories and mitigation options to the UNFCCC. Mitigation options communicated in both National Communications covered energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste sectors. Thus, Mongolia’s INDC aimed to also cover all of these sectors.

Mongolia’s INDC covers three main GHGs (as foreseen under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol): carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Generally, the base year was selected as 2010.

13.2. Accounting Methods for tracking the mitigation contribution

As described in Mongolia’s Second National Communication, the emissions inventory for Mongolia was compiled using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC 2006 Good Practice Guidance (GPG) and Global Warming Potential values from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The BAU baseline was defined according to the methodology given in Mongolia’s Second National Communication (see Chapter 8). Thus, these methods will be used for tracking the mitigation contribution.

13.3. Accounting method used for forest mitigation actions

Currently, the inventory of GHG emissions and sink of the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) is lacking because of data availability to comply with the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and IPCC Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF.

As such, Mongolia’s Inventory team will make all efforts to determine the data source and methodology to account GHG sink in forest sector during the preparation of ”Third National Communication”.

13.4. Institutional arrangements for INDC implementation (mitigation part)

The Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism (MEGDT) of Mongolia is the key ministry to develop, update and implement climate related policies. A simplified chart of Institutional arrangement for GHG mitigation analysis and implementation is shown in Figure 13.1.

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Government of MongoliaMinistry of energy

Ministry of industry

Ministry of food and acriculture

Ministry of road and transportation

Ministry of construction and urban development

Research entities

Ministry of mining

Individual consultants Estimation and analysis

Approval and Resolution for Implementation

Preparation for approval

Discussion and selection

Preparation for discussion

Preparation and approval

Implementation

Support and input

Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism

Climate Change Committee

Nature Conservation FundClimate Change Project

Implementation Unit

Figure 13.1. Simplified chart of Institutional arrangement for GHG mitigation analysis and implementation

The interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral National Climate Committee (NCC), now led by the MEGDT, coordinates and guides national activities and measures to adapt to climate change and mitigate GHG emissions. High-level officials such as Deputy Ministers, State Secretaries and Director-Generals of the main Departments of all related ministries, agencies and other key officials are members of the NCC. Therefore, the NCC is the main body to integrate implementation national as well as sectoral policies and measures specified in INDC. In addition, the government is working to raise public awareness on climate change and its impacts.

The Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO) has been established within the MEGDT to communicate with UNFCCC Secretariat and implement the commitments and duties under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, to manage and to integrate climate change activities at national level. The CCCO has been closed down according to the amendment (13th of November 2015) of the Law on Air. The Climate Change project implementation unit (CCPIU) has been established under the Nature Conservation Fund (NCF) in accordance with an Order No. A-118 of the Minister of Environment, Green Development and Tourism from 27th of February 2015.

Major entities involved in climate change and energy policy include the Ministry of Energy, CDM Bureau, the National Renewable Energy Centre, and the Clean Air Foundation. Ministry of Road and Transport, Ulaanbaatar Municipality, local transport authorities will look over transport sector. Ministry of Construction and Urban Development will be in charge of mitigation measures in construction and building sector. Other line ministries will be in charge of implementation and monitoring of their respective policies and measures.


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Mongolia is participating in the UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation). A National REDD+ Roadmap Taskforce in Mongolia was established in September 2011 and consists of 20 members representing different government, private sectors and civil society. The UN-REDD Programme will work with the Government of Mongolia to assess the institutional context and entry points for these instruments, and integrate them into national strategies for REDD+ and green development. The MEGDT coordinates UN-REDD+ activities and thus will also be responsible for mitigation in the forestry sector.

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REFERENCES

Adaptation Part1. Kelly Levin et al. 2015. Designing and Preparing Intended Nationally Contributions

(INDCs), World Resource Institute and UNDP2. TNA 2013. Technology Needs Assessment, Volume 1 - Climate Change Adaptation in

Mongolia. Ministry of Environment and Green Development (MEGD)3. MARCC 2014. Mongolian Second Assessment Report on Climate Change. Ulaanbaatar.

Ministry of Environment and Green Development (MEGD)4. MARCC 2009. Mongolian Assessment Report on Climate Change. Ulaanbaatar. Ministry

of Nature, Environment and Tourism (MNET)5. SNC 2010. Mongolia Second National Communication under the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 6. NAPCC 2011. National Action Programme on Climate Change (2011-2021), Resolution

No. 317, The Government of Mongolia, 07 November 20117. UNEP, 1992. Aridity index 8. Multi-criteria analysis: A manual, 2009 Department for communities and local government,

London9. Green Development Policy, 2014. Great Khural Resolution No. 43, Ulaanbaatar10. Climate change impacts in the forest, water and agricultural sectors and their vulnerability

and risk assessment. Institute Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHE), 201211. Need of development of strategic plan of climate change adaptation measures in the

forest, water and agricultural sectors, 201312. Enkhtaivan L., Natsagdorj L., Gomboluudev P., Borchuluun D., Galbaatar T. and Sarantuya

G., 2012, “Preliminary risk and impact assessment of climate change on nature and socio economics of Mongolia” Report (in Mongolian language)

13. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: IPCC, 2011: Summary for Policymakers. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report

14. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector of Mongolia, A final report submitted to assessments of impacts and adaptations to climate change (AIACC), Project No. AS 06, 2006

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and health in Asia. The Proceedings of 4th scientific conference of regional forum on environmental and health in southeast and east asian countries, Seoul, Korea 2010

Mitigation Part1. Kelly Levin et al. 2015. Designing and Preparing Intended Nationally Contributions

(INDCs), World Resource Institute and UNDP2. MARCC 2014. Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change, Ulaanbaatar,

2014. Ministry of Environment and Green Development Ulaanbaatar, 20143. SNC 2010. Mongolia Second National Communication under the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 4. Economics of climate change in East Asia. Michael Westphal, Gordon Hughes, Jorn

Brommelhoerster (Editors), 2013. Asian Development Bank (ADB)5. TNA 2013. Technology Needs Assessment, Volume 2 - Climate change mitigation in

Mongolia. Ministry of Environment and Green Development (MEGD)6. GHG mitigation scenarios in energy sector: Prepared by Dr. Jargal Dorjpurev, EEC Co.,

Ltd, February 2013. Ministry of Environment and Green Development (MEGD)7. Strategies for development of green energy systems in Mongolia, Final report, Mongolia


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country programme, March 2014, Ulaanbaatar. Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)8. Climate Change Mitigation: GHG emission potential, Ulaanbaatar (in Mongolian language)

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Khural (in Mongolian language). State Great Khural

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