Interactions between THORPEX and activities associated Interactions between THORPEX and activities associated with the International Polar Yearwith the International Polar Year

David H. BromwichDavid H. Bromwich

Byrd Polar Research CenterByrd Polar Research CenterThe Ohio State UniversityThe Ohio State University

Columbus, OhioColumbus, Ohio

Outline•Overview of IPY•Relationship between IPY activities and THORPEX activities•Description of some programs associated with IPY•Timeline•Summary

What is the International Polar Year?What is the International Polar Year?

The concept of the International Polar Year 2007-2008 is of an international programme of coordinated, interdisciplinary scientific research and observations in the Earth’s polar regions to explore new scientific frontiers, to deepen our understanding of polar processes and their global linkages, to increase our ability to detect changes, to attract and develop the next generation of polar scientists, engineers and logistics experts, and to capture the interest of schoolchildren, the public and decision-makers.

The official period of the IPY will be from 1st March 2007 until 1st March 2009 to allow observations during all seasons, and the possibility of two summer field seasons, in each polar region.

The geographic focus will extend over latitudes from approximately 60 degto the pole, both north and south.

What are the scientific objectives of the International Polar YeWhat are the scientific objectives of the International Polar Year?ar?

The IPY will include a broad range of activities organized around five main themes:

(1) To determine the present environmental status of the polar regions byquantifying their spatial and temporal variability.

(2) To quantify, and understand, past and present environmental and humanchange in the polar regions in order to improve predictions.

(3) To advance our understanding of polar - global teleconnections on all scales,and of the processes controlling these interactions.

(4) To investigate the unknowns at the frontiers of science in the polar regions.

(5) To use the unique vantage point of the polar regions to develop and enhanceobservatories studying the Earth's inner core, the Earth's magnetic field,geospace, the Sun and beyond.

How will observations be used to address the scientific objectivHow will observations be used to address the scientific objectives of es of IPY?IPY?

Five emerging observational initiatives serve the scientific themes:

(1) A synoptic set of multidisciplinary observations to establish the status of thepolar environment in 2007-2008

(2) The acquisition of key data sets necessary to understand factors controllingchange in the polar environment

(3) The establishment of a legacy of multidisciplinary observational networks

(4) The launch of internationally coordinated, multidisciplinary expeditions intonew scientific frontiers

(5) The implementation of polar observatories to study important facets of PlanetEarth and beyond

What do IPY and THORPEX have in common?What do IPY and THORPEX have in common?

(1) Both will address two way atmospheric interactions between polar and mid-latitude regions

(2) Both intend to improve data utilization and assimilation in models

(3) Both will assess the impact of polar measurements on global forecasts to determine which are most beneficial

(4) Both will conduct intensive observing periods that can be coordinated to overlap and thus enhance the scope of process studies

How are they different?How are they different?

(1) IPY emphasizes all components of the climate system, not just atmosphere

(2) IPY nominally spans 2 years, but it’s legacy will cover the entire THORPEX decade

(3) IPY focuses on time scales ranging from days to centuries

Examples of specific IPYExamples of specific IPY--affiliated programs that can beneficially affiliated programs that can beneficially interact with THORPEX:interact with THORPEX:

(1) Antarctic Regional Interactions Meteorology Experiment (RIME)

(2) Study of Environmental ARctic CHange (SEARCH)

RIME: The Overarching RIME: The Overarching Hypothesis:Hypothesis:

The Ross Sea region is critical in the transport of mass, heat and momentum between the Antarctic continent and lower latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere on a variety of scales.

RIME: How does the Antarctic interact with midRIME: How does the Antarctic interact with mid--latitudes?latitudes?

Polar Direct Circulation over Antarctica: Emphasizing the Ross Sea

Antarctica

Southward Return Flow

Rising motion due to cyclones

Katabatic Winds

RAS = Katabatic+ BarrierWinds

SinkingBranch

RossIceShelf

South PacificOcean

Surface Pressure Changes

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-90 -75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0

latitude

dp (h

Pa)

JUNE 29

JUNE 30

JULY 01JULY 02

Figure 5. Zonally-averaged surface pressure differences from 00UTC 28June 1988.

RIME: Mass loss from Antarctica has hemispheric impacts on shortRIME: Mass loss from Antarctica has hemispheric impacts on shorttime scalestime scales

Parish and Bromwich (1998)

(Zonal average includes all longitudes)

Study of EnvironmentalArctic Change

An Interagency (NSF, NOAA,NASA) U.S. Programhttp://psc.apl.washington.edu/search/

Lower sea-level atmospheric pressureIncreased air temperature over most of the Arctic, but lower temperatures over eastern North America and Greenland Changed ocean circulation and rising coastal sea level as warmer Atlantic waters penetrating farther in the Arctic OceanReduced sea ice coverThawing permafrost

MOTIVATION

SEARCH STRATEGY

Long-Term ObservationsModeling to synthesize observations

Process Studies to understand important feedbacksApplication to understand the difference between natural and

anthropogenic changes

NOAA/SEARCH Atmospheric• Element 1: Retrospective Analysis of Arctic Clouds, Radiation and

Aerosols from Surface and Satellite Measurements

• Element 2: Building National and International Linkages/Atmospheric Observatory Site Selection

• Element 3: SEARCH Arctic Cloud, Radiation and Aerosol Observatory

Eureka, CanadaAlert, Canada

NOAA/Reanalysis and Data Management

• Element 4: Correction of Systemic Errors in TOVS radiances• Element 5: Data Integrations for Arctic Reanalysis and Change

Detection• Element 6: Arctic Change Detection• Element 7: Initiation of Arctic Reanalysis Activity

TOVS Path-P 500 mb Temperature (North of 60°N)

NOAA/SEARCH Ice/Ocean• Element 8 Monitoring Ice Thickness in the Western Arctic

Ocean• Element 9 Eurasian Basin Buoy Program

SummarySummary

• A strong motivation for exploring interactions between IPY and THORPEX is the common sponsorship of both programs by WMO

• THORPEX and the IPY activities have similar visions

• THORPEX can considerably benefit the atmospheric component of IPY

• Specific IPY-affiliated programs, such as RIME and SEARCH, can directly benefit THORPEX via enhancements to polar observational networks (including remotely-sensed datasets) and through improvements in high-latitude NWP

Long-Term Atmospheric Observations are Desirable in Regions of Large Decadal Variability

Alert Canada logistically and scientifically attractive

Warming of 1.5C in Siberia

Cooling of -1.5C in NE Canada

(JISAO Website)Winter temperatures

Existing Atmospheric Measurements in Barrow, AK DOE and NOAA

Where to Measure

SEARCH Large-scale Atmospheric Observatories

SEARCH Implementation Plan, 2003

- in-situ atmospheric measurements (incl. profiles) made at four manned coastal sites- atmospheric measurements over pack ice dependent on measurements from satellites(need real-time calibration) and 2-3 automated drifting stations (SEB measurements)

Alert/Eureka Observatory

Alert-spring

Alert (August)

August 2004BSRNTotal sky imagerSun photometerAerosol (March)

August 2005MMCR radarMulti-level flux towerLidarMW radiometerFTIR

Basic MetSurface met2 daily rawinsondes

INSTRUMENTATION

Potential NOAA - Supported Activities for IPY• Deploy and maintain a network of Arctic sea ice and upper ocean buoys and

moorings– Ice mass balance buoys (6 per year deployed)-incl. sfc met & radiation– Air-dropped ice drift buoys (8 per year)– Ice tethered ocean profiling systems (6 per year deployed with IMB buoys)– Ice profiling sonar (4-6 moorings serviced annually)– Shelf-slope circulation moorings (4 pairs of moorings)– maintain 12 IMB buoys (IMB have 1-4 year longevity)

• Alaska Region Arctic Climate Observatory: Distributed observatory in the region of the Bering, Chukchi and Beuafort Seas and the Alaska North Slope– line of biophysical moorings in Bering Sea, Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea region– Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas climate-ecosystem interactions– North Slope and adjacent ocean methane flux observing network

• Initiate an Arctic system reanalysis in conjunction with planned global atmospheric reanalysis– development of high-resolution regional model for Arctic climate processes

• Alaska regional integrated sciences and assessment (RISA): Enhancing decision-making through integrated climate research– development of scientifically based climate services

PROPOSED IPY CRUISE(S) TO CENTRAL ARCTIC (non-NOAA/SEARCH): MOTIVATION AND OBJECTIVESCurrent and planned measurements over Arctic Ocean inadequatefor monitoring and understanding the climate changes currently occurring in the Arctic region

-satellite data not sufficiently accurate and unable to provide vertical resolution-unmanned drifting stations unable to 1) measure necessary SEB parameters year-round, 2) provide necessary vertical structure, and 3) provide spatial coverage

Propose ice-breaker based field program in the Central Arctic Ocean during IPY 2007-2008 to:

-develop and improve methods for the long-term monitoring of the Arctic atmosphere, ice, and ocean and the interactions among them (e.g., using combined satellite/drifting station techniques)-to study pack-ice physical processes crucial to the pack-ice regional climate change

Supported by at least 19 scientists: O. Persson*, E. L Andreas, C. Bitz, H. Eicken, C. W. Fairall, F. Fetterer, J. Francis, T. Grenfell, P. Guest, J. Intrieri, J. R. Key, J. Maslanik, D. K. Perovich, J. Richter-Menge, I. Semiletov, J. Tilley, M. Tjernström, T.l Uttal, H. Verlinde

Suggested IPY Cruise Deployment

• Use of one or more icebreakers with international collaboration (e.g., U.S. R/V Healy and Swedish R/V Oden, 8/2007)- allows more flexibility for location-dependent physical process studies

• One-year deployment• Drifting measurement site• Close collaboration withexisting Arctic programs (SEARCH, CliC)

Aerosonde

-Oden already committed to Arctic cruise in summer 2008,

- no action yet taken by U.S. (awaiting Congressional funds)