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Intergenerational Mobility in Singapore:
Lessons from International ResearchIrene Y.H. Ng
27 March 2014Civil Service College
Outline1. Definition 2. The Singapore case 3. Explaining mobility patterns– Inequality– Welfare system– Education system
4. Education & mobility5. Wrap-up
Defining MobilityMobility: I can achieve a different
status from where I started off
Intergenerational mobility: I can achieve a different status from my parents
Absolute mobility: I earn more than
my parents
Relative mobility: I earn more than my peers
although my parents earned less than their peers
b (Gradient) in Singapore
Current intergenerational mobility moderate to moderately low=> consistent with our political economy=> will be of increasing challenge in future
Explaining Mobility: Income Inequality
The Great Gatsby curve Andrews & Leigh (2009), Corak (2013) – empirical
Solon (2004), Ho (2010) - theoretical
-> Inequality leads to immobility
Market & Net Standardized Gini Index (Solt 2011)
Source: Ng (2013). Welfare Attitudes of Singaporeans
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Mar
ket G
ini
Net Gini
Hong Kong (2006) Germany
Denmark France
Singapore UK
Switzerland Finland Australia
USA Sweden
Canada Norway
Belgium Japan S. Korea
Mean Market Gini
Mea
n N
et G
ini
Explaining Mobility: Welfare SystemsBlack & Devereux (2010):• Scandinavia mobility increased due to establishment
of welfare states• U.S. mobility decreased due to weakening labour
unionsCausa et al. (2009)• Studied 14 European OECD Countries• More progressive tax system, stronger unions
=> higher income mobility
Explaining Mobility: Education System
Solon, 2004; Ichino, Karabarbounis, & Moretti, 2009; Davies, Zhang & Zeng, 2004; Ho, 2010: Lower mobility from• Private education• Differentiated system• Less progressive spending
Figure 1. Intergenerational Transmission of Parental Resources to Children
Parents Children’s Education
Children’s income
Education system
Source: Ng (forthcoming) Social Class, Poverty and Family Life – An East Asian Perspective
Explaining Mobility: Education SystemPekkarinen et al. (2009)Comprehensive school reform in Finland – replaced two-track system with uniform nine-years- Shifted streaming to academic and vocational tracks
from age 11 to 16Þ income correlation decreased by 23% from .3 to .23
http://www.moe.gov.sg/education/landscape/print/sg-education-landscape-print.pdf
200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310490
510
530
550
570
590
610
BelgiumCanadaEstonia Finland
Hong Kong
Japan
Korea
LiechtensteinMacao
Netherlands
OECD Average
Poland
Shanghai-China
Singapore
Taiwan
90th – 10th Decile
Mea
n M
ath
Scor
eMean Value and Distribution of PISA 2012 Mathematics Scores (Top 15 Economies)
Switzerland
Relationship between PISA Mathematics Performance and Socioeconomic Background
(Top 15 Economies)
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2010
20
30
40
50
60
Shanghai-China
Singapore
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Korea
Macao
Japan
Liechtenstein
Switzerland
Netherlands
Estonia
Finland
Poland
Canada
Belgium
OECD Average
Strength of gradient
Slop
e of
gra
dien
t
Dependence of PISA 2012 Mathematics Performance on Parents’ SES explained by…
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 350
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Shanghai-China Singapore
Hong Kong
TaiwanKorea
Macao
Japan
Liechtenstein
Switzerland
Netherlands
Estonia Finland
PolandCanada
Belgium
OECD Average
Within Schools
Betw
een
Scho
ols
Explaining Mobility: Education SystemPark (2013) using PISA various years2007 education reform in Japan & Korea: decentralize, individualize, increase flexibility and choice
Before Reform
Top students do as well as top students
in other top countries
Bottom students do better than bottom students in other
top countries
After reform
Top students’ performance unchanged
Bottom students do worse than other
top countries
Explaining Mobility: Higher Education
Blanden, Gregg & Machin (2005): UKYeung (2012): ChinaHong Kong Institute of Education (2013) Expansion of higher education widens disparity
in educational attainment of rich and poor
Singapore’s Education System• Increasing differentiation• Expansion of university spaces • Increasing tuition feesÞfavour students from wealthier families?
Singapore’s Education System
BUT• Heavy government investments in the
different tracks • Many bursaries and scholarships• Continuing education and training framework
Intergenerational Mobility: Accumulation through Life Course
Early childhood
• E.g. Age 5 disparity in vocab scores by family background largest in USA, followed by UK, Australia and Canada
Middle childhood & adolescence
• p468: “Average differences in measurable child outcomes encountered early on in life persist throughout children’s lives up to university age…”
• U.K.: achievement gap by SES widens between age 11 and 14 -> secondary school sorting
Adolescence to adulthood
• P469: Cognitive ability account for 2/5 of correlation between father’s and son’s educational attainment
• Same gap in college attendance in USA & Canada, higher income mobility in Canada. Why?
• Educational attainment more dependent on parents’ education in Sweden than UK, but higher income mobility in Sweden. Why?
Conclusion
IP/IBUniversity
Professiona
l jobs
Normal streamITE
Technical/service job
Wide & widening wage gap
Residual welfare
Eton School
House
PCF
ConclusionIntergenerational mobility will be an increasing challenge• Immobility-reinforcing effects of our systemsÞPolicy can shape intergenerational mobility
ÞBroad, not remedial & peripheral, policiesE.g. Ermisch et al.: “A reduction in the variance of school quality…..would make a larger contribution (than more equal access to good secondary schools)”E.g. labour market reforms, not just financial handouts
ÞEvaluate policy changes
Thank you
Streams, school types, programs
Early high-stakes exams
Differential labelsDifferential networksDifferential resources
Increased inequality in student performance
Unceratin improvement in overall standard
Lower intergenerational
mobility
Social segregationLower empathy
Lower connectedness with community
Hyper competition=> Stress
StrategizingOver-reliance on
private tuition
Ng et al. (forthcoming) Social Infrastructure Development