Interim results for the 26 weeks ending 26 June 2011
Chris Moore Chief Executive Officer
Lee Ginsberg Chief Financial Officer
Lance Batchelor Deputy Chief Executive
The Team
2
Agenda
•H1 2011: The Business–Sales
–Store Openings
•H1 2011: The Numbers
•H2 2011–Marketing Activity
–Store Opening Programme
–Other
•Germany
•Q&A
3
Financial highlights
A robust set of results
* Pre-exceptionals of £1.1m4
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
LFL sales growth System sales Profit before tax * Diluted EPS * Interim dividend
+2.4%
+9.0%
+14.8%+15.5%
+22.2%
H1 System Sales and PBT* growthSales up 9%, profits up 14.8%
£142.5 £170.2 £196.4 £237.1 £258.4
8.3m
10.9m
13.6m
17.5m
20.1m
£5.00
£7.50
£10.00
£12.50
£15.00
£17.50
£20.00
£22.50
£0
£50
£100
£150
£200
£250
£300
2007 H1 2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011 H1
System Sales (£M) PBT * (£M)* Pre-exceptional items
PB
T £m
5
Sale
s £
m
H1 Mature Store Sales GrowthTough comparatives especially in Q2
14.9%
11.4%
7.1%
13.7%
2.4%
404
454
501
553
607
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2007 H1 2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011 H1
LFL sales growth LFL store population6
Constant Mature Store Sales Growth
£12,265
£13,634
£14,594
£16,607 £16,954
£10,000
£12,000
£14,000
£16,000
£18,000
2007 H1 2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011 H1
Mature Store PopulationAverage Weekly Sales in H1
7
The driest April on record didn’t help May wasn’t on our side either
“The average UK household had £165 a week of discretionary income in May2011, 8.0 per cent lower than a year earlier. The £14 a week fall compared tothe same month a year earlier is the largest decline on record.” – CEBR, June 2011
8
Impact of the WeatherM
atu
re S
tore
Gro
wth
Like-for-like sales growth by quarter: UK & ROI
9.32%
4.83%
10.77%8.58%
10.53%17.26%
9.90%10.21%
4.20% 0.70%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2010 2011
3 Year Rate
Q1 24.05%
Q2 22.8%
9
Like-for-like sales growth by quarter: UK only
3 Year Rate
Q1 28.04%
Q2 27.23%
8.86%5.47%
13.14%10.37%
13.63% 20.35%
11.48%12.32%
5.55%1.41%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2010 2011
In June, UK mature stores were up 3.1%. When removing days when England were playing, June 2011 would have been +5.6%
10
Removing the 2010 Effect: 2011 & 2009 AWUS Growth(2009 Mature Store Constant Population UK & ROI)
15.03%
14.94%
14.80%
12.19%
15.08% 23.5%
£12,000
£13,000
£14,000
£15,000
£16,000
£17,000
£18,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2009 201111
Key Drivers of Like-for-Like Growth
11%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011
13.4%
16.1%
17.1%
Penetration (% HHs purchased in last 210 days)
20
25
30
35
40
45
H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011
34.734.0
35.3
Re-order Frequency
£16.00
£16.50
£17.00
£17.50
£18.00
£18.50
£19.00
£19.50
£20.00
H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011
£18.16£18.24
£19.21
Average Ticket (gross)
2009 Constant UK Mature Store Population
Drive to attract new customers is key12
Operational Improvements Continue
13
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YTD
Time OTD Avg
2010 14.65 14.18 13.63 13.28 13.32 13.27 13.71
2011 13.60 13.84 13.26 13.07 13.38 13.32 13.42
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00O
ut
the
Do
or
Tim
es
(Min
ute
s)Out The Door Times - 2011 Vs 2010
Note: 37% of sales come in 12 hours of the week!
• 22 new stores opened in first half (2010: 19)
• 2011 new stores trading at record levels - c. £13.5k (2010: £11.7k)
• 688 stores at half year (2010: 627 stores)
• Four new franchisees, total 132, ratio 5.2:1
• One closure (2010: 0)
• Franchise enquiries up 8% - YTD: 2,200
H1 Store Growth
14
H1 New Store Opening AWUSIdentifying ‘high propensity’ locations
£8,418
£10,871£10,416
£11,771
£13,564
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
15
Profit and Loss – Pre-exceptional Items 26 weeks to
26 June 2011
£’000
26 weeks to
27 June 2010
£’000
%
increase
52 weeks ended
26 December 2010
£’000
System Sales 258,425 237,131 9.0 485,282
Operating profit
Germany results and amortisation
Profit before interest and tax
Net interest (payable)/received
Profit before tax
Taxation
Profit after tax
20,352
(147)
20,205
(117)
20,088
(5,397)
14,691
17,479
-
17,479
26
17,505
(5,010)
12,495
16.4
-
15.6
-
14.8
(7.7)
17.6
38,035
-
38,035
(28)
38,007
(10,878)
27,129
Dividends - Per share
- Cover
5.50p
1.65x
4.50p
1.75x
22.2 10.20p
1.64x
Earnings per share – Pre-exceptionals
- Basic
- Diluted
9.20p
9.11p
8.04p
7.89p
14.4
15.5
17.36p
16.75p16
Profit and Loss – Exceptional Items
26 weeks to
26 June 2011
£’000
26 weeks to
27 June 2010
£’000
52 weeks ended
26 December 2010
£’000
Administration costs
- Acquisition of Domino’s Pizza Germany
- Restructuring and reorganisation
Profit/(loss) on the sale of assets
Unwinding of discount
Taxation impact
- On exceptional items
- Change in corporation tax and impact on deferred tax
(960)
(960)
-
49
(180)
(573)
174
(747)
(1,664)
(275)
-
(275)
(11)
(220)
80
80
-
(426)
(2,372)
-
-
(11)
(420)
(261)
(3,064) 17
System sales growth – the drivers in H1 2011
H1 2011 H1 2010
52 weeks ended
26 Dec 2010
2012 2013 2014 2015
LFL % 2.4% 13.7% 11.9% 3.0%* 3.0%* 3.0%* 3.0%*
- Matures - £’m 5.5 26.4 46.9 15.5 17.0 18.6 20.2
Openings 15.7 14.4 31.5 34.5 36.2 38.0 60.2
- New 2.1 2.5 13.1 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.9
- Immatures 13.6 11.9 18.4 14.2 15.4 16.7 18.1
Growth in system
sales - £’m 21.2 40.8 78.4 50.0 53.2 56.6 60.2
Mix – Matures
- Openings
26%
74%
65%
35%
60%
40%
31%
69%
32%
68%
33%
67%
34%
66%
18
Sales from annualised store openings
equate to 8% LFL’s* Analysts’ consensus forecasts
Balance Sheet
Current
assets:
At 26 Jun11
£’000
At 27 Jun 10
£’000
Inventories
Trade & other
receivables
Net investment in
finance leases
Prepaid lease charges
Cash
4,170
19,667
1,830
138
24,128
49,933
2,892
14,989
1,847
130
23,450
43,308
Current liabilities:
Trade & other
Financial liabilities
Deferred consideration
Deferred income
Tax liabilities
(25,882)
(1,831)
(2,463)
(77)
(3,559)
33,812
(24,565)
(1,849)
-
(77)
(1,732)
(28,223)
At 26 Jun 11
£’000
At 27 Jun 10
£’000
At 26 Dec 10
£’000
Non-current assets
Current assets
Non-current assets held
for sale
Total assets
94,417
49,933
890
145,240
79,204
43,308
1,003
123,515
80,556
54,127
938
135,621
Current liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Total liabilities
Net assets
(33,812)
(56,134)
(89,946)
55,294
(28,223)
(58,656)
(86,879)
36,636
(40,178)
(53,781)
(93,959)
41,662
19
Cash Flow Statement26 weeks to
26 June 2011
£’000
26 weeks to
27 June 2010
£’000
52 weeks ended
26 December 2010
£’000
Profit before taxation 18,997 16,999 35,204
Net finance costs 297 194 448
Share of post tax profits of associates (146) (109) (219)
Impairment - - 82
(Profit)/loss on disposal of
non-current assets
(49) 11 11
Depreciation and amortisation 1,710 1,087 2,815
Share option and LTIP charge 483 569 1,432
Changes in working capital (8,154) (2,598) 1,275
Cash generated from operations 13,138 16,153 41,048
20
Cash Flow Statement (cont.)26 weeks to
26 June 2011
£’000
26 weeks to
27 June 2010
£’000
52 weeks ended
26 December 2010
£’000
Cash generated from operations 13,138 16,153 41,048
Taxation paid (1,356) (3,387) (5,456)
Net cash generated by operating activities 11,782 12,766 35,592
Net cash used by investing activities (7,289) (4,790) (10,514)
Cash inflow before financing 4,493 7,976 25,078
Financing activities (11,380) (8,376) (17,841)
Net (decrease)/increase in cash (6,887) (400) 7,237
21
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
£’m Actual Forecast
H1 H2 Total
Maintenance 3.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5
Expansionary 8.6 4.2 4.8 9.0 - - 2.5
West Ashland 7.0 - - - - - -HQ 0.3 2.7 4.8 7.5 - - -Naas 0.3 0.4 - 0.4 - - -Pulse POS - 1.1 - - - - -
Penrith 0.2 - - - - - 2.5
Store freeholds 0.8 - - - - - -
DP GmbH - - 0.9 0.9 3.5 0.9 -
Total Capex 11.6 5.1 5.8 10.9 6.0 3.4 5.0
Capital Expenditure 2011 - 2014
RISING FREE CASH FLOWS AND REDUCING CAPEX22
Analysis of Borrowings*
* 52 week rolling EBITDA
At 26 Jun 11
£’000
At 27 Jun 10
£’000
At 26 Dec 10
£’000
Cash at bank 24,128 23,450 31,128
Term debt (25,000) (25,000) (25,000)
Net cash (872) (1,550) 6,128
DP Capital (2,703) (3,135) (2,732)
EBT loan (12,035) (12,035) (12,035)
Adjusted net debt (15,610) (16,720) (8,639)
Adjusted net debt/EBITDA 0.4:1 0.5:1 0.2:1
23• Excludes loans of £2.2m in Domino’s Pizza Germany
and £4.4m in Domino’s Leasing
Available Debt Facilities
* Margins at LIBOR + 50bpts
Facility
£’m
Term
Expiry
Date
Utilised at
26 Jun 11
£’m
Undrawn at
26 Jun 11
£’m
Purpose
25.0 * 5 years 20 December 2012 25.0 - Multi-purpose
5.0 5 years 31 December 2013 2.7 2.3 DP Capital
13.0 * 7 years 31 January 2014 12.0 1.0 EBT
43.0 39.7 3.3
Cash on hand 24.1
Headroom 27.4
24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007 H1 2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011 H1
Diluted EPS
Compound increase of 26%
since 2007
7.89
3.63
Pence
Diluted Earnings Per Share Growth *
* Pre-exceptional items
6.21
5.12
9.11
25
Dividends Per Share Growth
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
2007 H1 2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011 H1
Dividends per share
Compound increase of 31%
since 2007
4.50
1.90
2.70
Pence
3.50
5.50
26
Cash Returned to Shareholders
TARGET TO CONTINUE TO RETURN 100% OF PAT27
* Pre-exceptionals
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 26 weeks 26 June 2011
Dividends
Share buybacks
Profit after tax
£’0
00
Cash Returned to Shareholders
2006
£’000
2007
£’000
2008
£’000
2009
£’000
2010
£’000
26 weeks to
26June 2011
£’000Total
£’000
Profit after tax * 9,996 13,239 15,664 21,574 27,129 14,691 102,293
Share buybacks 10,161 8,346 3,783 7,623 4,715 1,804 36,432
Dividends 4,234 5,816 8,035 10,466 13,632 9,144 51,327
Total returned 14,395 14,162 11,818 18,089 18,347 10,948 87,759
% of profit after tax 144% 107% 75% 84% 68% 75% 86%
TARGET TO CONTINUE TO RETURN 100% OF PAT28
* Pre-exceptionals
Operational gearing driving profits
•PBT/System sales of 7.8%
– Up 40bpts year on year
– Infrastructure in place to manage 1,200 stores
• Minimal investment to come
• Commissary efficiencies and scale
29Key driver of future profitability
PBT/System Sales % - The Margin Progression
30
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
2007 H1 2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011 H1 2020 analysts' forecasts
5.8
6.46.9
7.47.8
12.0
%
Food Cost Outlook • Locked in to longer term contracts
– Created more price stability
– Cost increases in H1
• Passed on to franchisees
• 3% increase in selling prices
– Covered food costs and VAT increases
• Outlook for H2 2011
–Potentially further 1% increase
•Seeing benefits from scale and supply chain re-engineering
31
Food Cost Outlook (cont.)
• Initial outlook for 2012– Initial estimate of 2-3% increase
– Flour back at current contracted levels
• Starting to take cover already
• eg. flour, meats etc
• c. 25-30% of baskets covered
– Same or lower than 2011
• Big unknown is cheese
• Energy costs– West Ashland
– Fixed to March 2013
– Other commissaries– Fixed to mid-2012
32
H2 Outlook
33
Domino’s H1 vs H2 Media Spend
£6,972
£2,416
£5,325
£7,261
£-
£1,000
£2,000
£3,000
£4,000
£5,000
£6,000
£7,000
£8,000
H1 H22010 2011
H1: -24%H2: +201%
Source: Nielsen Media 2011: OBS: Does not include Affiliate, Search Marketing & SEO
Spe
nd
£0
00
s
34
Genuine product news that steals share from the competition
35
Play brand ad
36
New Brand Campaign
Press and digital campaign to amplify product messages
37
Launch genuine new product news to broaden the audience
38
• Sponsorship of ITV’s newest addition to its autumn schedule
• Starts Saturday Sept 3rd
• One week only but huge scope for cross-platform activity pre and post (FB, ITV etc)
• Ant & Dec hosting
• Platform to help launch the Gourmet Range
39
New TV Sponsorship
E-commerce goes from strength to strengthBiggest week: 48.5 of UK delivered sales. Now a third of all sales (including Ireland)
£13.6
£24.6
£35.2
£56.9
£85.0
14.3%
21.8%
26.2%
32.7%
41.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
£80
£90
2007 H1 2008 H1 2009 H1 2010 H1 2011 H1
£ Net Sales UK % Delivered Sales
£m
40
E-Commerce Support
• All Search Marketing: £166 return for every £ spent
• Mobile YTD net sales £7.5m
• 13% iPhone users are new to the brand
• c. 250,000 Facebook fans
Fourfold increase in just eight months
9,432 followers on Twitter
• iPad app imminent41
Day Part focus continues to gain traction
42
• Lunch up 20%, now 11% of UK mature store sales
• Late Night up 16%, 9.4% of UK mature store sales
• 103 stores now open beyond 1am
• New operational challenges
A Resurgent Competition?The Real Impact
• In our competition’s Golden Miles, Domino’s Spend Per Address has increased c.10% Jan – May vs same period last year
• Franchisees spending more on LSM
• Plus big difference in national media spend
43
£7,753
£3,467
£280£0
£2,000
£4,000
£6,000
£8,000
£10,000
Domino's Pizza Hut Papa John's
Media Spend Jan-June 2011 (‘000s)
Source: Adynamix / Nielsen. Includes e-commerceOBS: Pizza Hut figure includes an estimate for the value of the E4 sponsorship in the period
• We currently have 29% more sites with planning than at this time last year
• On track for 60 openings
• New store design now ‘bedding in’
• First carry-out only unit now open
• Working on first shopping centre site for Autumn opening
H2 Store Growth
23
Germany
• The Deal
–75/25 partnership with Grand City Hotels, second largest hotel operator in Germany
– Local expertise, site acquisition knowledge
• Terms of transaction
– 2,200,000 shares in plc (cost of acquisition c.£8.6m)• 1,320,000 shares on completion
• 880,000 shares on opening of 35th store
– DOM to inject €7.5m as a loan
– €1m advanced on completion
45
Germany• MFA
–30 year agreement (includes two 10 year renewals)
– Broadly similar to the UK agreement (but with fixed 3% royalty rate)
– Stipulates minimum 12 corporate stores
– 262 stores by 2019
– Six by end of this year, 18 by end of 2012, average 35 openings a year from 2013 onwards
– Just opened third store in Bonn with our first franchisee
• The Market
• Population of 82 million with nine major metropolitan areas > 1 million (UK:6)
• High density and highly urbanised
• More immature, mostly local competition. Menu very different, lower average ticket than UK.
46
• 40.7 million households (UK: 28.8 million)
• Single households at 39.5% - fastest growing segment
• Good labour market
• Property availability better than UK
• Fast food is growing and becoming more popular
• All the leading chains are planning further growth
• Younger generation appreciates the convenience
• Online ordering a “must”
• Franchising is a recognised and acknowledged system
Germany – the market
47
Pizza Delivery competition in Germany
178 stores 80 stores
c.140 stores 40 stores
51 stores 66 restaurants
Best operator 3 delivery units
• Total branded pizza delivery chain sales approx €220m per annum
• Smiley’s average c.€12k per week, Joey’s < €10k
• All of major chains are primarily a franchise model48
Germany – Management Team & Next Steps
• Main consideration: minimise impact on UK & Ireland management team
– led by former Ops Director, Pat Thomas
– Market Director, Brett Stallworthy (only hire from DPG)
– Marketing by former Sales & Marketing Director, Robin Auld
• Overhaul marketing material, website and store design
• Build corporate store base in Berlin and one other region
• Establish commissary model beyond the existing facility in Berlin
– smaller sites across Germany?
– or one big facility?
• Refine model to build the franchise investment case
• Then, start franchising
49
Summary
• Tough start to the year but positive outlook for second half fuelled by additional ad spend and menu novelty
• Fanatical focus on the basics – great quality and service, backed up by unrelenting national, regional and local marketing presence has kept core customers close and a resurgent competition at bay
• Demand for growth and store opening pipeline looking good
• Early days for Germany, but substantial potential
• Food cost pressures under control
• Robust operational gearing set to continue
50
APPENDIX 1 Analysis of Group turnover(Page A-1)
APPENDIX 2 Analysis of Group operating profit
(Page A-2) (Pre-exceptionals)
APPENDIX 3 Earnings per share reconciliation(Page A-3)
APPENDIX 4 The financial model at 2020
(Pages A-4 & A-5)
APPENDIX 5 Franchisee profitability(Page A-6)
APPENDIX 5 Statement of changes in equity
(Page A-7)
APPENDICES
Analysis of Group Turnover
26 weeks to
26 June 2011
£’000
26 weeks to
27 June 2010
£’000
Variance
£’000
Variance
%
Royalties 14,208 13,043 1,165 9.0
Store sales 563 546 17 3.1
Franchise/TST/FDP fees 388 397 (9) (2.3)
Commissary sales 76,291 67,649 8,642 12.8
Property sales 7,691 6,974 717 10.3
Computer sales 1,450 1,431 19 1.3
Other sales 2,046 1,548 498 32.2
Inter-company sales (485) (254) (231) (90.9)
Total sales 102,152 91,334 10,818 11.8
A-1
Analysis of Group Operating Profit (pre-exceptionals)26 weeks to
26 June 2011
£’000
26 weeks to
27 June 2010
£’000
Variance
£’000
Variance
%
Net royalties 7,231 6,641 590 9.0%
Franchise operations
contribution
1,469 1,566 (97) (6.2%)
Commissary margin 20,534 17,915 2,619 14.6%
DP Realty margin 473 582 (109) (18.7%)
Central overheads* (9,541) (9,372) (169) (1.8%)
Other * 39 147 (108) (73.5)
20,205 17,479 2,726 15.6
* Includes corporate stores, JVs, DP Capital and GermanyA-2
Earnings Per Share Reconciliation26 weeks ended
26 June 2011
£’000
26 weeks ended
27 June 2010
£’000
Profit attributable to shareholders – post exceptionals
Profit attributable to shareholders – pre-exceptionals
13,047
14,712
£12,056
£12,482
Basic weighted average number of shares - £’000s
(excluding shares held by EBT)
159,858 155,199
Dilutive - ‘000s
- Share options and reversionary interests 1,653 3,098
Diluted weighted average no. of shares – ‘000s 161,511 158,297
Basic EPS - post exceptionals
Basic EPS - pre-exceptionals
8.16 pence
9.20 pence
7.77 pence
8.04 pence
Diluted EPS - post exceptionals
Diluted EPS - pre-exceptionals
8.08 pence
9.11 pence
7.62 pence
7.89 pence
A-3
2001 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 At 2020*
No. of stores 237 451 501 553 608 665 1,200
- 55 openings p.a.
AWUS growth at 3% p.a. £8,422 £11,347 £12,539 £13,493 £14,089 £15,440 £19,502
System sales £ 98m £ 240m £ 296m £ 351m £407m £485m £ 1,217m
Profit before tax** £ 2.9m £ 14.2m £ 18.7m £23.4m £29.9m £38.0m £146.0m
PBT/System sales 3.0% 5.9% 6.3% 6.7% 7.3% 7.8% c.12.0%
+100% 54%
• Stores double – profits grow four-fold
• Circa 9.5% of incremental sales to profit (commissary 6.5% + net royalty 2.8%)
• Significant operational gearing
»Commissaries
»Central infrastructure
A-4
The Financial Model at 2020
* Independent analyst research – not a forecast
• ** Pre-exceptionals
2007 2008 2009 2010 At 2020 *
• PBT £18.7m £23.4m £29.9m £38.0m £146.0m
• Share buybacks
• Average no. of shares in issue 158.0m 156.9m 159.9m 161.8m 128.0m
• Diluted EPS** - pence 8.4p 10.71p 13.49p 16.75p 81 .0p
- CAGR 19% p.a.
• Dividend - cover 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x
- pence 4.4p 5.9p 7.75p 10.20p 54.0p
* Independent analyst research – not a forecast
** Pre-exceptionals
The Financial Model at 2020 (cont.)
A-5
AT LEAST 10 YEARS OF CASH GENERATIVE ORGANIC GROWTH
Franchisee profitability
A-6
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD P05
Axi
s Ti
tle
Franchisee Profitability - Mature Stores
EBITDA AWUS
Statement of Changes in EquityAt 26 Jun 11
£’000
At 27 Jun 10
£’000
At 26 Dec 10
£’000
At beginning of year 41,662 21,576 21,576
Proceeds from share issue 5,508 782 1,594
Share buybacks (1,816) (2,432) (4,715)
Profit for year 13,047 12,056 24,036
Tax on employee share options 158 468 1,036
Share options and LTIP charge 483 569 1,432
Exchange translation
differences
52 (392) 286
Dividends (9,144) (6,596) (13,632)
Contingent consideration * 3,432 - -
Share buyback obligation - 10,592 10,592
53,382 36,623 41,633
Minorities 1,912 13 29
55,294 36,636 41,662 A-7
* Acquisition of DP GmbH