1
International Collaboration toward Innovative Modelling and Monitoring Research
for Eco-Cities and Eco-Industrial DevelopmentsAug. 26th, 2015
Prof. Tsuyoshi Fujita,Director of Social Env. Systems Research Center, NIES
(1) Integrative modelling research for low carbon society(2) Urban and regional eco-city design model and simulation research(3) Innovative monitoring and regional evaluation system research
Development of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
2
Impact/AdaptationModel
Emission Model
【Country】
【Global】
Enduse model
ExSS
CGE model
【sequentialdynamics】
【dynamicoptimization】
【Local/City】
Agriculture
Water
Human health
Simple Climate Model
Other Models
future society
Populationdynamics Transportation Policy
assessment
GHG emissions
tempera-ture
【Global】 【National/Local】
feedback
AIM/Impact[Policy]
Burden share Material stock-flow
mid-term target
IPCC/WG3
climate impacts
IPCC/integrated scenario
carbon tax
long-term vision
Life-stylechange adaptation
low carbon scenario
Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building
IPCC/WG2
Climate ChangeResearch Program
Since 1990, NIES has been developing AIM collaborating with Asian researchers.
3
Decision Planning forDecision Planning forStakeholders
Integrative Model Application toward Low Carbon Cities and Regions
Low carbon planning
Citizen participation
Local and Regional Low Carbon Plans
Scenario design revision from Feed back from Stakeholder Meetings
AIM Region Model
Alternative technologies and policies from Local Characteristics
Future Scenarios
Life IndustryIndustry PlanningPlanning Energy
Energy Model
crftech = r × (1+ r)dpryrtech
(1+ r)dpryrtech −1
COSTfuel,tech (t) = ucfueltech (t)× FUELtech (t)
FUELtech (t) = 1ηtech (t)
× Osrv,tech (t, m,hr)m,hr∑⎛
⎝⎜⎜
⎞
⎠⎟⎟
1− Fdc,b (t,m,hr) ≥Sb,tech (t,m,hr)
denom
Population Model
pds
=
( (1- ))outin
pdspds
LNtot
LHD AAWH DER× ×∑
aggWRworkPoptotPOP _/__ =
pds
( )inin
pdspds
LNtot
LHD AAWH DER
=
× ×∑
Transportation, ,
6, , 365 (1 /10 )
ptm age hht age tdtd age hht
td ptm td ptm
PTD Pop Ptg
Pts Ptad
= ×
× × × ×
∑∑∑
,
6, , (1 /10 )
ftm pss pss tdpss td
td ftm td ftm
FTD PD Ftg
Fts Ftad
= ×
× × ×
∑∑
Local Economy
X Ainv(I-(I-Mr)F+Ex)=
[ ] 1Ainv Imat 1 IMR Amat( ) −= − − ×
_ _inin inoutIncome LNtot WagePP LNtot
WperL inout POP tot SSget= × +
× + ×
Policy OptionsMUL
et et etx IMP2 f f IMP1 f= ⋅ ⋅ + ⋅ur ur ur
(0.5), 1 1 , 1 1 1et et et et et et etimp1 f l b f⋅ = ⋅ ⋅
, 2, 1 2 1
(1) (0)1 , 2 2, 3 3, 1 2 1
3
0.5
MULet et et et et
MULet et et et et et et et et
et
imp2 f f
b l a l f f
⋅ ⋅
⎛ ⎞= ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ ⋅⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠∑
Land UseModel
,lu lup lulup
Area LUCM= ∑
, ,_lup lu lup lulupLUCM Area prev LCC= ⋅
,,
, lup,lulog minlup lu
lup lulup lu
LCCRLCC
RLCC⎛ ⎞
⋅ →∑ ⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠
,,, / crp croplcrp croplcrp cropland crpHA DP CRPS YLD= ⋅
International Cooperation toward Low Carbon Society
ChinaUSA
Japan
タイ
EU
Japan-UK Joint Project on LCS
UK
India
LCS-RNet: endorsed by
G8EMM
LCS study in Japan
Promote researches on
Asia LCS
2006, 2007, 2008
・Participation in international model comparison on mitigation potential
LCS model building capacity workshop, Organized by TGO,
SIIT-TU, JGSEE, NIES, at Bangkok, 2010
The 18th AIM International Workshop, 2012
AIM Training Workshop at NIES, 2013
4
5
GHG Emissions in Low Carbon Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
GHG排
出量
[GtC
O2e
q/年
]
方策１【都市内交通】による削減
方策２【地域間交通】による削減
方策３【資源利用】による削減
方策４【建築物】による削減
方策５【バイオマス】による削減
方策６【エネルギーシステム】による削減
方策７【農業・畜産】による削減
方策８【森林・土地利用】による削減
方策以外の削減
アジアの排出量（低炭素社会）
世界の排出量（低炭素社会）
世界の排出量（なりゆき社会）
GH
G e
mis
sion
s [G
tCO
2eq/
yr]
Reduction due to Action 1 (urban transport)
Reduction due to Action 2 (interregional transport)
Reduction due to Action 3 (resources & materials)
Reduction due to Action 4 (buildings)
Reduction due to Action 5 (biomass)
Reduction due to Action 6 (energy system)
Reduction due to Action 7 (agriculture & livestock)
Reduction due to Action 8 (forestry & land use)
Other reduction
Emission in Asia (LCS)
Global Emission (LCS)
Global Emission (BaU)
By Dr. S. Fujimori (NIES)
6
New Challenges for Modelling and Monitoring Research
New Challenges for Modelling and Monitoring Research
Research challenge to compile innovative modelling and monitoring approach
Long Term
Integrated Model for
Future VisionNormative Targets by
General Equilibrium
Model
Technology and policy Solution
Design Adapting to Local
CharacteristicsFuture Targets
Low Carbon Solutions on
Local Contents
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2
emiss
ions
(M
tCO
2)
Agriculture, Forestry and FishTransport, EnergyTransport, FreightTransport, PassengerCommercialResidentialOther ManufacturingConstructionMachineryNon-Ferrous MetalsOther Non-Metallic MineralsGlass ProductsOther Chemical ProductsTextiles, Wearing Apparel andFood Product, Beverage and TPaper, Pulp and PrintingPetrochemicalsCementIron and stealElectricity and Heat ProductioEnergy Conversion
Back CastingE
nviro
nmen
talE
mis
sion BaU
System Environmental Monitoring Information
System
③Project Design
②Spatial-scopeLand use zoning /network design
・ land use distribution patterns
・ local energy network・location of core
developments
①Macro-scope・ population, industries
・ core developments
・ energy localityAlternative
future vision
▪ zoning and regulation
▪ district planning
▪ key industries
Core projects for revitalization
( )
なりゆきシナリオ
LNG立地シナリオ
産業振興シナリオ
環境産業共生シナリオ
Feasibility Study
Future frame
7
8 Future technology and policy system analysis for eco-cities
Selected in 20137 cities
Shimokawatown 3,600
Obihiro city0.17 mil.
Yokohama city3.69 mil.
Miyakojima city55,000 8
Niigata city0.80 mil.
Niseko town 4,800
Selected in 2009
13 cities
Selected in 2014
3 cities
Chiyoda ward48, 000
Toyota city0.42 mil.
Iida city0.11 mil.
Kobe city1.54 mil.
Minamata city30,000
Kitakyushu city 0.97 mil.
Amagasaki city 0.45 mil.
Nishi awakuravilagge 1,600
Oguni town 7,900 The number indicates the population.
as of June, 2014
Tsukuba city0.21 mil.
Kyoto city 1.47 mil.
Ikoma city10.12 mil.
Mitake town19,000Yusuhara
town 3,800
Toyama city 0.42
Sakai city0.84 mil.
Matsuyama city0.51 mil.
Eco-Model Cities Initiatives
LNG Power Plant
LNG base
Soma city
Newly located
industries
Plant factories
Mega solar
Energy management
BaU scenario for Fukushima in 2030
Komagamine
To Natori
New town
around Station
Electricity
HeatCoolGas(LNG)
9
ｘ
Food industries
Data center
LNG Power Plant
LNG base
Soma city
Newly located
industries
Newly located industries
Plant factories
To Natori
Energy management
Electricity
HeatCoolGas(LNG)
Proposal of Smart Energy System for Fukushima in 2030
Komagamine
Mega solar
Plant factories
New town
around Station
10
Inventory survey
Estimation of Alternative Future Recovery ScenariosQuantification of Impacts and Costs
Effects of Local Energy Managem
ent
Alternative Spatial Scenario
+Green Growth
BA
U+Com
pact City
Green growth can bring significant co-benefit of CO2 emission reduction and fuel saving. 11
System simulation:Symbiosis design:Networking
Land use design
Heating system design
Heat demandHeat supply
Heat loss Pressure loss
Assessment: Economic cost-benefits
Environmental impacts
-3
2
7
12
BAU Compactcity
Greengrowth
ktCO
2/yr
Urban Plant factory
0
200
400
600
BAU Compactcity
Greengrowth
mill
ion
yen/
yr
Urban Plant factory
CO2 emission comparison: Fuel cost comparison:
Future Technology Assessment Considering Time-frame
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Long-term target of the region[Demography, employment, town-making, low-carbon, etc]
Gap against BaU
Short term：Pioneering point development project
•Town-planning with local energy•A show-case oflow-carbon system•Economic impact
in several years
Long-term：Urban-Industry-Agriculture Complex
Short term：Cluster development
•Industrial ecology by strategic locations
•Intensive local energy use with IT facilities
•Industrial development centered by local energy business creates employment
•Compact clusters of residents, commerce and industries
•Convenient transport•Creating employment and enhance settlement
With future targets of demography, economy, and environment in the region, the most suitable technology is chosen in short, mid, and long term. Structure of land use and related industries are describe as well.
12
Urban and
Regional symbiosis
Energy demand response
Urban Waste
Smart Industrial Complex
Local symbiosis
Local energy supply
and demand
Smart Symbiosis Initiatives for Eco City Innovation Smart ICT network will promote and complement the synergetic network functions among stakeholders
Energy and consumption demand control system for urban sectors
Smart industrial complex supported by synergetic information network among industries
Information support for optimizing local and regional material and energy circularization
1 2 3Local Data Collection Center
Smart Community
Smart UrbanSymbiosis Center
Energy demand information
Operation information
Weatherinformation
Demand
Renewableenergy
incineration methane
Renewableenergy
By-product information
Power plant
Steel
Cement
Chemical
Energy
Actuｰation
Inform-ation
Waste &material
13
Action framework of urban monitoring system in Asia・Advanced internet security technologies effectively
manage and protect the data・Excellent recovery data collection capability ・Relationship analysis between different types of data
MonitoringEnergy Data
Collecting Energy Data
Analysis of Collected Data
Promoting Low Carbon Activities/Behavior
System Design
Production Line
A CLightingsEnergy Meters
System Design through User Participation
Integrative Analysis of Multi-Sectoral Data
Visualization
Data access・Analysis
Green Room(Management center)
Tablet
Dashboard
1 2 3 4 5
ResidentialIndustrial
Business
Data Center（Indonesia/ Japan)
Robust Data Traffic under Uncertain Condition
Electricity
Fuel
14
Analysis and application of monitoring data
Low-carbon policies design and simulation
Provide a support tool for users to promote energy-saving actions and information sharing through visualization of real-time energy consumption and the patterns.
•Low-carbon behaviors promotion;•Low-carbon technologies promotion;•Low-carbon measures simulation with monitoring data.
0
5
10
kW
Office case (office 2)
BAU 100% eco-AC
MonitoringSimulation
0 6 12 1824h
0
2000
4000
6000
BAU Eco-AC LED Eco-AC+LED
Monthly Electricity consume,kWh
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
BAU Eco-AC LED Eco-AC+LED
Monthly CO2 emission, kg
-50% -50%
Estimated effects
CO2
0 6 12 18 24h0
0.5
KW
2F all 1F lighting1F AC 1F receptacle
Monitoring points in FY 2014
Identify energy consumption Diagnosis of data
BAU EcoAC LED Both
ElectricityBAU EcoAC LED Both
Residential house
15
Planning System for Fukushima Recovery System through Eco-innovationFukushima Shinchi
Township National Institute for Env. Studies
Simulation for recovery roadmap復興まちづくりのシミュレーション
Simulation for recovery roadmap復興まちづくりのシミュレーション
Planning for Sustainable Future
16
Energy Assist
Community Information Assist
Life Assist
Community Assist Tablet Network
LocalNeedsLocalNeeds
RegionalEnvironmentInformation
RegionalEnvironmentInformation
Urban SpatialAnalysis
Local environment
diagnosis
Integrated Modelling
Future scenarioassessment
Tech. and policy inventory
-low carbon tech-circulation tech-industrial symbiosis-policy / regulation-land use control
Integrative Modelling and Monitorin Resarch VisionComprehensive research design to compile integrated low carbon forecasting models
and varied range of global-regional and urban monitoring networks
Dual Direction Low Carbon Monitoring Information System
Long TermShort Term
Integrated Model for
Future Vision
Normative Targets by General
Equilibrium Model
Technology and policy Solution
Design Adapting to Local
CharacteristicsFuture Targets
Low Carbon Solutions on
Local Contents
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2
emiss
ions
(M
tCO
2)
Agriculture, Forestry and FishTransport, EnergyTransport, FreightTransport, PassengerCommercialResidentialOther ManufacturingConstructionMachineryNon-Ferrous MetalsOther Non-Metallic MineralsGlass ProductsOther Chemical ProductsTextiles, Wearing Apparel andFood Product, Beverage and TPaper, Pulp and PrintingPetrochemicalsCementIron and stealElectricity and Heat ProductioEnergy Conversion
Back Casting
環境
負荷 BaU
・・・
Present
Low Carbon Monitoring System
17
18
List or related publications
• Yong Geng, Fujita Tsuyoshi, Xudong Chen; Evaluation of Innovative Municipal Solid Waste Management through Urban Symbiosis: A Case Study of Kawasaki, Environmental Sci and Tech., 2009 (revised)
• Rene Van Berkel, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Shizuka Hashimoto, Minoru Fujii；Quantitative Assessment of Urban and Industrial Symbiosis in Kawasaki, Japan, Environmental Science & Technology , Vol.43, No.5, 2009 ,pp.1271-1281,0129.2009
• Rene van Berkel, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Shizuka Hashimoto, Yong Geng；Industrial and Urban Symbiosis in Japan : Analysis of the Eco-Town Program 1997-2006；Journal of Environmental Management, vol.90,pp.1544-1556,2009
• Shizuka Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Yong Geng, Emiri Nagasawa； Achieving CO2 Emission Reduction through Industrial Symbiosis: A Case of Kawasaki , Journal of Environmental Management, 2008 (submitted)
• Yong Geng，Qinghua Zhu, Brent Doberstein，Tsuyoshi Fujita； Implementing China’s Circular Economy Concept at the Regional Level: a review of progress in Dalian, China, Journal of Waste Management, vol.29,pp996-1002,2009
• Yong Geng, Rene Van Berkel , Tsuyoshi Fujita ；Regional Initiatives on Promoting Cleaner Production in China: A Case of Liaoning, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2008 (submitted)
• Zhu Qinghua, Yong Geng, Tsuyoshi Fujita , Shizuka Hashimoto ；Green supply chain management in leading manufacturers: Case studies in Japanese large companies, International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 2008 (submitted)
• Yong Geng, Pang Zhang, Raymond P. Cote, Tsuyoshi Fujita；Assessment of the National Eco-industrial Park Standards for Promoting Industrial Symbiosis in China, J. of Industrial Ecology, Vol.13, No.1, pp.15-26, 2008
• Looi-Fang Wong, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Kaiquin Xu； Evaluation of regional bio-energy recovery by local methane fermentation thermal recycling systems, Journal of Waste Management,vol.28, pp.2259-2270, 2008
Thank you for your Attention
