Can Ukraine and Romania be a tandem in the Transnistrian settlement?
Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Strategic and Security Studies Group
Kyiv, Ukraine
International Conference “Ukraine and Romania: Partners or Competitors?”Odesa, October 14, 2013
Transnistrian conflict
Recent developments
Ukraine’s OSCE Chairmanship Priority
5+2 rounds
November 25-26 will host the next round of negotiations on the Transnistrian settlement.
Ukraine – Romania tandem?
Key questions to answer:
Pros and cons of Romania’s involvement?What are the obstacles for cooperation?Are the obstacles artificial and the threats
exaggerated?
Arguments in favor of involvement
Both Romania and Ukraine are not interested in escalation of conflict
Both Romania and Ukraine agree upon the necessity to preserve territorial integrity of Moldova
Romania being on the path of the reforms can teach a lot
Obstacles: mutually negative stereotypes
Romania Ukraine
Exaggerated threats
Transnistria:
Exaggerated threats
Ukraine:
Exaggerated threats & speculations
Ukraine should react promptly: in case Romania annexes Moldova – Ukraine should annex Transnistria. Eduard Leonov “Svoboda”
Speculations of politicians supplemented by speculations of
“civil society” IdealistsPragmaticsFlexible HypocritesPro-Russian NGOs
Realistic threat and true obstacle
Ukraine – Romania tandem?
Added value: YESObstacles: LOTS OF THEMInvented or realistic obstacles: BOTHIs there any chance for the tandem?
Ukraine – Romania tandem
Already exists formallyHas good chances from both perspective of
liberal institutionalist : the politics of international organizations and Western States of consolidating democracy and good neighborliness imposed rules of cooperation
realist perspective: the patterns of cooperation are produced by the balancing behavior (fear of Russia)
Thank you for your attention!Q & A
Sergiy GerasymshukStrategic & Security Studies Group
Kyiv, [email protected]
www.gsbs.org.ua