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International Exit Poll 2014

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International Exit Poll 2014 Early Parliamentary Elections, Ukraine October 26, 2014 This Exit Poll is organized by 4 partners. The sponsor of the project is the Government of Canada. The exit poll is executed by the Rating Group Ukraine and «Baltic Surveys» / The Gallup Organization (Lithuania) with the support of International Republican Institute (USA). Voters were surveyed at 330 polling stations in all regions of Ukraine except of Crimea. About 25 000 respondents participated in the exit poll. All polling stations were clustered using the criteria of the region, urban/rural location and the size. Than in each cluster, the polling stations were selected at random following the principal of proportionality. Respondents at the polling stations were selected using the pre-defined interval, universal all over the country. The data were collected at the exit from polling station. Voters who just have casted their vote were asked to self-complete the questionnaire. The respondent than put the completed questionnaire into the specially designed box. 1000 interviewers and other staff members participated in this project. Margin of error for big numbers does not exceed – +/- 1,5%, for small numbers – +/- 1%.
Transcript
Page 1: International Exit Poll 2014

International Exit Poll 2014 Early Parliamentary Elections, Ukraine – October 26, 2014

This Exit Poll is organized by 4 partners. The sponsor of the project is the

Government of Canada. The exit poll is executed by the Rating Group Ukraine

and «Baltic Surveys» / The Gallup Organization (Lithuania) with the support of

International Republican Institute (USA).

Voters were surveyed at 330 polling stations in all regions of Ukraine except of

Crimea. About 25 000 respondents participated in the exit poll.

All polling stations were clustered using the criteria of the region, urban/rural

location and the size. Than in each cluster, the polling stations were selected at

random following the principal of proportionality. Respondents at the polling

stations were selected using the pre-defined interval, universal all over the

country. The data were collected at the exit from polling station. Voters who just

have casted their vote were asked to self-complete the questionnaire. The

respondent than put the completed questionnaire into the specially designed box.

1000 interviewers and other staff members participated in this project.

Margin of error for big numbers does not exceed – +/- 1,5%,

for small numbers – +/- 1%.

Page 2: International Exit Poll 2014

Voting dynamics during the day

Page 3: International Exit Poll 2014

4

6

8 10 9

11

5

7 9

10 11

14

12

15

17

20

24

28

17 16

19 20

22 22

24 23

23 22

19

16

38

33

25

18 15

9

0

10

20

30

40

8-10 a.m. 10-12 a.m. 12-14 p.m. 14-16 p.m. 16-18 p.m. 18-19 p.m.

18-24 years

25-29 years

30-39 years

40-49 years

50-59 years

60+ years

Dynamics of the voters’ structure by age during the day (bihourly), %

Page 4: International Exit Poll 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

8-10 a.m. 10-12 a.m. 12-14 p.m. 14-16 p.m. 16-18 p.m. 18-19 p.m.

Bloc of P.Poroshenko

Narodnyi Front

SAMOPOMICH

Oppositional Block

Svoboda

Radical Party

Batkivshchyna

Dynamics of party support during the day (bihourly), %

Page 5: International Exit Poll 2014

Results

Page 6: International Exit Poll 2014

Results of the International Exit Poll, %

Interviewing took place at 330 polling stations in all regions of Ukraine, except of

Crimea. About 25 000 respondents were interviewed. 22,2% 21,8%

14,2%

7,8%

6,4% 5,8%

5,6% 2,9% 3,2%

2,7%

Page 7: International Exit Poll 2014

1,6

0,4

0,4

0,6

2,0

2,4

2,7

2,9

3,2

5,6

5,8

6,4

7,8

14,2

21,8

22,2

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

Internet party

"5.10"

Solidarity of Women

ZASTUP

Pravyi Sector

Sylna Ukrayina

Communist Party

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Svoboda

Radical Party

Oppositional Block

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of P.Poroshenko

Results of the International Exit Poll, %

Page 8: International Exit Poll 2014

Support for the parties

in the regions

Page 9: International Exit Poll 2014

Results by the regions, %

2

1

1

1

2

3

3

6

6

7

16

22

31

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Other

Communist Party

Sylna Ukrayina

Oppositional Block

ZASTUP

Pravyi Sector

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

Svoboda

SAMOPOMICH

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Narodnyi Front

West

Page 10: International Exit Poll 2014

Results by the regions, %

Center

4

2

2

2

2

3

3

6

6

8

11

25

29

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Other

Sylna Ukrayina

Communist Party

Pravyi Sector

ZASTUP

Oppositional Block

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Svoboda

Radical Party

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Page 11: International Exit Poll 2014

Results by the regions, %

North

3

2

2

2

3

3

3

6

7

9

14

23

24

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Other

Sylna Ukrayina

Pravyi Sector

Communist Party

ZASTUP

Oppositional Block

Civic Position

Svoboda

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

SAMOPOMICH

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Narodnyi Front

Page 12: International Exit Poll 2014

Results by the regions, %

Kyiv

3

1

2

2

3

3

4

5

5

10

17

21

27

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Other

ZASTUP

Communist Party

Sylna Ukrayina

Oppositional Block

Radical Party

Pravyi Sector

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Svoboda

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

SAMOPOMICH

Page 13: International Exit Poll 2014

Results by the regions, %

South

5

1

3

3

3

6

6

7

8

10

12

13

23

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

Pravyi Sector

Civic Position

ZASTUP

Svoboda

Radical Party

Batkivshchyna

Communist Party

Sylna Ukrayina

SAMOPOMICH

Oppositional Block

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Page 14: International Exit Poll 2014

Results by the regions, %

East

4

2

2

3

4

5

5

6

6

11

11

20

22

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

Pravyi Sector

ZASTUP

Civic Position

Svoboda

Sylna Ukrayina

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

Communist Party

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Oppositional Block

Page 15: International Exit Poll 2014

Results by the regions, %

Donbas

5

0

1

2

2

3

6

7

8

8

8

13

35

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Other

ZASTUP

Civic Position

Pravyi Sector

Svoboda

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

SAMOPOMICH

Communist Party

Sylna Ukrayina

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Oppositional Block

Page 16: International Exit Poll 2014

Support of the parties by

the type of the settlement

Page 17: International Exit Poll 2014

Support of the parties by the type of the settlement, %

3 1

3 3 3 4 5 5 6

9 16

20 22

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

ZASTUP

Pravyi Sector

Sylna Ukrayina

Communist Party

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

Svoboda

Oppositional Block

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

3 2 2 2

3 4

5 6

7 9

10 22

26

051015202530

Other

Pravyi Sector

Civic Position

Communist Party

Sylna Ukrayina

ZASTUP

Svoboda

Oppositional Block

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

SAMOPOMICH

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Narodnyi Front

Rural

Urban

Page 18: International Exit Poll 2014

Structure of the electorate of main parties by the type of the settlement, %

39

54

61

62

68

70

74

74

76

78

78

78

61

46

39

38

32

30

26

26

24

22

22

22

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ZASTUP

Radical Party

Batkivshchyna

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Sylna Ukrayina

Communist Party

Svoboda

Oppositional Block

Civic Position

SAMOPOMICH

Pravyi Sector

Urban Rural

Page 19: International Exit Poll 2014

Support of the parties by

the age groups

Page 20: International Exit Poll 2014

Support of the parties by the age groups, %

5 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 5

8 19

21 22

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

Communist Party

Sylna Ukrayina

Civic Position

Svoboda

Oppositional Block

ZASTUP

Batkivshchyna

Pravyi Sector

Radical Party

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

5 1

2 2

3 3

4 5 5

7 20

21 22

0510152025

Other

Communist Party

ZASTUP

Civic Position

Sylna Ukrayina

Svoboda

Pravyi Sector

Batkivshchyna

Oppositional Block

Radical Party

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

25-29 y.o.

18-24 y.o.

Younger age groups

Page 21: International Exit Poll 2014

Support of the parties by the age groups, %

4 1 2 3 3 3

5 5 5 5

20 22 23

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

Communist Party

ZASTUP

Civic Position

Pravyi Sector

Sylna Ukrayina

Svoboda

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

Oppositional Block

SAMOPOMICH

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Narodnyi Front

3 2 2

3 3 3

5 6 6

7 17

22 23

0510152025

Other

Communist Party

ZASTUP

Pravyi Sector

Sylna Ukrayina

Civic Position

Radical Party

Batkivshchyna

Svoboda

Oppositional Block

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

40-49 y.o.

30-39 y.o.

Middle-age groups

Page 22: International Exit Poll 2014

Support of the parties by the age groups, %

3 2 2 3 3 4

6 6 7 8

12 22 23

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

Pravyi Sector

ZASTUP

Sylna Ukrayina

Communist Party

Civic Position

Radical Party

Batkivshchyna

Svoboda

Oppositional Block

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

2 1

2 3

4 6 6

7 7

8 12

21 23

0510152025

Other

Pravyi Sector

ZASTUP

Sylna Ukrayina

Civic Position

Communist Party

Batkivshchyna

SAMOPOMICH

Svoboda

Radical Party

Oppositional Block

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

60+ y.o.

50-59 y.o.

Older age groups

Page 23: International Exit Poll 2014

Structure of the electorate of main parties by the age groups, %

2

3

4

5

5

9

6

7

5

12

10

16

3

5

5

6

6

9

7

8

9

9

12

13

6

11

14

13

15

14

17

17

21

18

23

23

12

16

18

18

18

15

19

19

18

17

22

21

22

24

25

28

26

21

24

23

22

24

19

17

54

41

34

30

30

33

28

26

25

20

14

10

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Communist Party

Oppositional Block

Svoboda

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Narodnyi Front

Sylna Ukrayina

ZASTUP

SAMOPOMICH

Pravyi Sector

18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

Page 24: International Exit Poll 2014

Support of the parties

by gender

Page 25: International Exit Poll 2014

Support of the parties by gender, %

3 2 3 3

2 4 5

7 7 8

15 19

22

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

ZASTUP

Pravyi Sector

Communist Party

Sylna Ukrayina

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Oppositional Block

Svoboda

Radical Party

SAMOPOMICH

Narodnyi Front

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

3 2 2

3 3 3

5 6 6

9 13

22 24

051015202530

Other

Pravyi Sector

ZASTUP

Communist Party

Civic Position

Sylna Ukrayina

Svoboda

Radical Party

Batkivshchyna

Oppositional Block

SAMOPOMICH

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Narodnyi Front

Women

Men

Page 26: International Exit Poll 2014

Structure of the main parties by gender, %

59

54

53

53

50

47

44

40

40

40

39

37

41

46

47

47

50

53

56

60

60

60

61

63

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Pravyi Sector

Svoboda

Civic Position

Radical Party

Communist Party

SAMOPOMICH

Bloc of Petro Poroshenko

Sylna Ukrayina

Batkivshchyna

ZASTUP

Narodnyi Front

Oppositional Block

Men Women

Page 27: International Exit Poll 2014

Embassy of Canada to Ukraine

13А Kostelna St.

Kyiv, Ukraine 01901

Tel.: (+38 044) 590-3100

Fax: (+38 044) 590-3134

http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca/ukraine

[email protected]

International Republican Institute / Ukraine

44, #2 Velyka Vasylkivska St.

Kyiv, Ukraine 01004

Tel.: (+38 044) 581-3242

Tel.: (+38 044) 581-3241

http://www.iri.org/

[email protected]

Baltic Surveys, Ltd / The Gallup Organization

10A Smolensko St.

Vilnius, LithuaniaLT-03201

Tel. : (+3705) 212-0104

Fax: (+3705) 212-7145

http://www.gallup.com/corporate/171821/global-offices.aspx

[email protected]

Rating Group Ukraine

3, Ivana Mazepy str.

Kyiv, Ukraine 01010

Tel.:(+380 44) 254-3694

Tel.: (+380 44) 254-3693

http://www.ratinggroup.com.ua/

[email protected]


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