International Fixed Income
Topic VB: Emerging Markets-
Description
Review from last time: Numerical Example
• Consider a 5.5% 2-yr semi-annual coupon bond.
• Now suppose that this bond has the following characteristics:– guaranteed principal– nonguaranteed interest, with default
probability each 6-mth period of P=.15– First, price the guaranteed part, and
then the nonguaranteed component.
Recall the Data from Class
8972.,9222.,9476.,9730. 25.115. rrrr
72.89100 2 dPG
First, the guaranteed part:
Second, the Brady Bond:
The way to value this bond is to realize today’svalue is the discounted value of all future expectedcash flows. These cash flows only occur if there isno default, i.e., if (1-p) occurs.
Brady Bond Mathematics
99.6)28.156.188.127.2(
)15.1(75.2
)1(
][
5.
2
5.
2
5.
t
T
t
t
t
T
t
tt
t
T
ttNG
d
dpC
dCEP
Thus, the price of the Brady Bond is89.72+6.99=96.71
What About the Strip Spread?
T
t
T
t
CNG
tstr
tstr
tP
5. 1
75.2
5. 1
2
2
2
2
99.6
Given the interest rates of 5.54%, 5.45%, 5.47% and 5.5%;solve for the strip spread s. Note that this is one equationand one unknown, but needs to be done on a computer.What is S? S=36.42%!
Outline• Emerging Markets• Stylized Facts• Case Study
I. 1997 Share of World Economy
21.56
6.44 DevelopedEmerging
0.855
4.85
DevelopedEmerging
31.9
101
DevelopedEmerging
GDP ($ trillions)
Pops. (billions) Land Area (mm. km)
Emerging Markets• Only a subset of these emerging
market countries offer investable debt securities.
• In fixed income, emerging debt markets refer to this subset:
(see next page)
Types of Debt (1997)
BradysOther $dn.LocalLoans$-corpLcl-corp.
Who Holds This Debt? (1996)
BanksMutual Fds.He. Fds.DealersPensionInsurance
Debt Volume (1997)
BradysOther $dn.LocalLoansoptions
1997 Brady Bond Universe
93%
7%
$Non-$
36%
52%
12%
FixedFloatingNon-perf.
38
62%
CollateralizedUncollateralized
$ vs. non-$
Types Guarantees
Types of Risks for $-denominated Bonds
• Interest rate risk: pays $ $ risk• Credit risk (recall the strip spread)
– Economic fundamentals (e.g., GNP)– Solvency (e.g., meeting debt
obligations)– Serviceability (e.g., foreign exchange
reserves)– Political considerations– Willingness to pay
Bond Price SensitivityRecall that $-investments in international fixed incomehad three components:[yield] - [dur x (r)] - %S(Fn/$)
There many not be foreign exchange risk now, butsovereign risk implies[yield] - [dur x (r$)] - [durs x (Spd)]
Durs represents the duration with respect to a credit spread change.
II. Stylized Facts about Emerging Debt Market
Returns• Look at JP Morgan Emerging
Market Bond Indices (see handout)
• Monthly data, 1/1993 - 3/2000• Estimate
– means– volatilities– durations & credit risk duration
Emerging Market Debt: Means
Annualized
0.135
0.14
0.145
0.15
0.155
0.16
Fix Fltr Latin Total
mean
Emerging Market Debt: Vol
Annualized
0.1660.1680.17
0.1720.1740.1760.1780.18
0.1820.184
Fix Fltr Latin Total
volatility
Emerging Market Debt: Vol
Annualized
00.020.040.060.080.1
0.120.140.160.180.2
Fix Fltr Latin Total
volatilityint.rate.vol
Selective Correlations
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
Fix-Flt. Brz.-Mex Brz.-Nigeria
correlation
Conclusions• Emerging markets trade much
more like equity returns in terms of returns/risk. Why?
• Most of the volatility is due to credit risk, i.e., $ interest rate risk plays only a small role. Why?
• Given this, correlations seem to be particularly high. Why?
III. Case Study• Did investors foresee the collapse of
the Mexican peso in 1994?• Look at short-term debt instruments
over 1993-94 time period:– cetes (23% of mkt): peso-denominated– tesobonos (55% of mkt): $-denominated
albeit w/ capital controls
Mexican Bond Premiums
TCCurncyrTDefault US
Pm Pm
Let T be the Tesobono rate, C be the Cetes rate and r bethe US rate. It’s possible to show that, in $ terms,
Premiums (91 days)
00.020.040.060.080.1
0.120.140.160.180.2
1993 1994 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95
DefaultCurrency
What about the 182-day Cetes and Tesebonos?
• Assuming the expectations hypothesis, could we have looked prior to September-November of 1994, and inferred devaluation risk from the longer maturity bonds?
• The answer is no - there was no sign of a currency premium on longer versus shorter bonds.
Cetes & Currency
0102030405060708090
Nov-94
Jan-95
Mar-95
May-95
Jul-95
Sep-95
Nov-95
Jan-96
0123456789
Cetes-91Cetes-182MP/$