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INFORMInternational Forest Risk Model

Wood Pulp & Paper Palm Oil Beef Soy Leather

Prof David WallomUniversity of Oxford e-Research Centre

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Risk

Forest risk commodities expose supply chain participants to business risk

Reputational

OperationalLegislative

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Deforestation Ratio

Production Point of AggregationProduction Point of Aggregation

Production Point of Aggregation

Production Point of AggregationWeighted

Sum

Point of Aggregation

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Deforestation RatioProduction Point of Aggregation

Production Point of Aggregation

Production Point of AggregationWeighted

Sum

Point of Aggregation

Production Point of Aggregation

Weighted Sum

Processor/Consumer

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How can a Risk Model be used?

Municipalities

Export Port

Import Port

Processor

Customer

Farmer Le ACME Animal Feed

Sète

Paranaguá

Cocalinho

Novo São Joaquim

Rondonópolis

…

Santos

Araguaiana

Barra do Garças

Itiquira

…

São Francisco Do Sul …

Non tropical Countries ---

I buy my animal feed from Le ACME

Animal Feed in the South of

France

Supermarche wants to know

if my pork contribute to

deforestation?

Rondônia - Deforestation Trends

Rondônia is located almost entirely within the Legal Amazon and covers 243,044 km. The state is one of the most deforested in the Brazilian Amazon, with tree cover of 157,601 km 2 in 20132. Deforestation in Rondônia is largely a result of colonization projects and the expansion of beef and soya production. As global demand grew in the 1960’s, beef production in Rondônia expanded. Road-building enabled population growth and increased agricultural production. Consequently, state deforestation rates rocketed from the 1980s as land was cleared for pastures, croplands, and urban development. By 1991, Rondônia’s cattle herd was one of the largest in Brazil, producing almost twice as much beef as the state consumed 3. Rondônia’s beef industry continued to expand during subsequent decades, with cattle herds in the Brazilian Amazon growing by 23 to 33% between 1995-96 and 2006 4. Large-scale soy production began in Brazil in the 1990s. By the time the crop arrived in Rondônia, many areas suitable for soy production were already utilised as cattle pasture. Soy expansion in the state thus often occurred on pastures, displacing cattle production and indirectly causing deforestation. This trend became especially pronounced following the introduction of the Soy Moratorium in 2006, which saw Brazil’s largest soya companies commit to avoid sourcing soya from land deforested after 2006. 5 Deforestation rates in Rondônia remained high until 2005, when forest loss decreased rapidly due to a combination of policy initiatives, industrial action, and decreased consumer demand during the economic crisis6.

State Policy and Initiatives

The state government of Rondônia has supported the implementation of the Forest Code through creating a registry of rural properties and promoting environmental licensing to create compliance with land use regulations. The state is also a member of the Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force (GCF), which seeks to reduce emissions from deforestation and establish governance frameworks through the collaboration of its 29 member states and provinces. However, most action on protecting Rondônia’s remaining forest is legislated through national policy.

Cabixi is a municipality in the Brazilian state of Rondônia in the North-West region of Brazil.

Unscaled Deforestation Ratio = 0.009

MEDIUM5% of your Animal Feed contributed to deforestation

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Next Steps

• Define the boundaries of what we consider High, Medium and Low Deforestation Ratio– Time dependant to track and drive better practices

• Stakeholder engagement– Engage with a range of specific targets within the supply chain of the pilot commodities and regions as well as with

government and civil society stakeholders in both producer and consumer countries‐• Better Data

– Consistent machine readable international standardised data formats and access models– Better ‘in countries of consumption’ tracking– Open standardised platform for hosting and publishing – remove duplication without ‘vendor

lock in’– Consistent and agreed methodologies to represent qualitative analyses

• To develop interface with users and mitigation support tools tailored to specific users. • To integrate NGOs data and transparency tools such as Forest 500.