MIGRATION SCENARIOSParis, 25 February 2015

It is NOT a luxury to think about the

future

The future is a playing field of power

It is a responsibility of leadership to be more reflective on the stories they are push

Foresight is way to create a shared sense of future and refresh our understanding of the present

Foresight in policy is essential to getting ahead of global emerging issues, addressing connected challenges and enabling global

collaboration

1979: OECD Global Futures

Three global scenarios - four critical issues (guiding principles and recommendations on each):1. The energy transition: diversify mix and reduce

dependency on oil

2. Help developed countries to adapt to new context and anticipate new values, new social demands, adapt to structure changes

3. Common efforts for the development of the Third World

4. New forms of international collaboration

IMPACT: institutional innovation (IEA, DAC) and more, better collaborationMETHODOLOGY: Scenarios as reframing devices NOT forecasting tools

1990: International Futures ProgrammeLooking beyond ‘business-as-usual’ projections

Examples:

– Ocean economy (ongoing)– Families to 2030 (2012)– Global Shock: risk governance (2011)– Bio-economy (2009)– Space 2030 (2005)– Security economy (2004)– Emerging risks (2003)– Future of Money (2002)

Impacts:

– Resetting research and/or policy agenda

– Forging shared understanding –silos/sectors

– Identifying emerging policy issues

– Addressing “orphan issues” what fall between the cracks

– Testing existing and developing new policy options

Long Term OutlooksConditional projection of evidence base – baseline “scenarios”

The OECD …

• … a forward looking organisation that supports it members in developing better policies for better lives.

• An upgrade of its core capabilities in strategic foresight was mandated by MCM 2013

– keeping abreast of the continuous evolution in leading edge foresight philosophies and methods whilst

– maintaining a pragmatic approach and developing practical tools suited for a new era of public policy making under unpredictable uncertainty.

OECD Development Centre

Future of livelihoods

Development of two scenarios

Automation proceeds

faster than expected

and affects ageing

societies in particular

Automated

North

Droughts

and

joblessness

in the

South

Droughts become widespread

and challenge the resilience of

livelihoods, particularly in the

regions with a large share of

young people

Foresight is not the same as

forecasting… We need both!

‘facts’

‘The Present’ ‘The Path’ ‘The Future’

Forecasting(projecting the past)

current realities(mental maps)

multiple paths alternativefuture images

Scenarios(reframing the present)

Mental models

Worldviews

Assumptions

Scenarios: Angela Wilkinson

Foresight is not the same as

forecasting… We need both!

Scenarios: Angela Wilkinson

Scenarios are structured, well thought-out stories describing a small set of possible and different futures

& how they might come about

Predictions

Projections

Preferences

Implicit expectations

Consequential

Challenging

Plausible

Disciplined anticipation

Always focussed – users and uses

A fast futures exercise

Based on the trends discussed and identified in the last 1,5 days

• Identification of critical uncertainties and drivers of change

• Imagination of stories of the future, different from projections on migration

• Discussion of policy implication for migration and development policies in the different scenarios

Backup

Working with different time “framings”,

not just a long term horizon

Even if you could know the future…

Foresight helps open-mindedness…

“we perceive something as

meaningful if it fits meaningfully

with a memory we have made of

an anticipated future”

David Ingvar

(neurobiologist)

Toolkit of modern futures methods

Method Future(s) Temporal stance Futures

thinking

Attitude

(normative

stance)

Intervention

Approach

Epistemology of uncertainty Output

Forecasting Single Linear:

Past-to-future

Closed Descriptive:

knowing/seein

g the future

Outside-in

and adaptive

Mathematical treatment of

uncertainty

Probable future

Visioning Single Backcasting :

future-back-to-

present

Closed Normative:

responsibility

for the future

Inside-out and

activist

Choices and values as basis

for coping with uncertainty

Preferable future

Scenarios Multiple Entangled:

multiple

temporalities

Open Descriptive/

critical:

creating

options for the

future

Outside-in

and can be

either activist

or adaptive

Cognitive biases, culture and

social processes introduce

additional uncertainties

including ambiguity and

ignorance

(set of) Plausible

futures

Diverse methods compared

John W. Selsky, Angela Wilkinson, Diana Mangalagiu (2012): Chapter 13: Using futures methods in cross sector partnership projects: engaging wicked problems responsibly, in Social Partnerships and Responsible Business: A Research Handbook, Routledge.

What are scenarios?

17

XPredictions

Projections

Preferences

Relevant + Consequential

Credible + Challenging

Coherent + Plausible

…stories describing the alternative future contexts of something developed for someone for some purpose

Inductive

Scenario 1

Scenario 2Scenario 3

Official

future

Alternative

scenario

Incremental Normative

Vision

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Deductive

Many scenarios “building” methods

Stories

Scenarios

Qu

alit

ative

Qu

antita

tive

Info

rma

tio

n

Possibility Plausibility Predictability

Evaluation regime

Hard SystemsModelling

Different approaches