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International Trade StatisticsNew developments
Ronald JansenChief of the Trade Statistics BranchUnited Nations Statistics Division / DESAE-mail: [email protected]
International standards
2008 SNA 2008 IRIS Balance of Payments Manual, 6th Edition
Current Account Goods – Residency and Change of Ownership Services – Residency
Classifications ISIC, Rev.4 CPC 2.0
International standards - Trade International Merchandise Trade Statistics, Concepts and
Definitions 2010 (IMTS 2010) Movement of Goods across Borders Main data source – Customs declarations
Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services, 2010 (MSITS2010) BOP services components FATS Modes of Supply
Balance of Payments Manual, 6th Edition Current Account
Goods – Residency and Change of Ownership Services – Residency
Classifications HS-2012 CPC 2.0 EBOPS
Compilation Guidance - Trade International Merchandise Trade Statistics, Compilers Manual
Expert Group on IMTS Customs and Non-customs data sources Country practices
Compilers Guide for MSITS2010 Expert Group on Compilation of SITS Time schedule – June 1013
BPM6 Compilation Guide BOPCOM committee First drafts have appeared on IMF website
Classifications Revision of BEC New classification for Business Functions (Outsourcing)
Revised recommendations - Trade IMTS 2010 – new data elements
Imports FOB added – useful for reconciliation exercises
Partner country of consignment – useful for reconciliation studies
Mode of Transport Customs procedure
Direct imports / exports Inward / Outward processing Global Free zone trade Production
Data Dissemination - Trade UN Comtrade – Upgrade
New data elements added Anticipation of further dimensions - industry Addition of Monthly data
Publications More analytical Integrating Trade in Goods and Services Monthly trends
Revised recommendations - Trade MSITS 2010 – changes
Revised EBOPS classification Requesting partner breakdown by service
category Requesting partner breakdown by FDI Requesting partner breakdown by FATS Measuring Modes of Supply
Mode 4
Data Dissemination - Trade UN ServiceTrade – Upgrade
Collection of more detailed data Further improved Data processing More metadata
Publications Integrating Trade in Goods and Services
New developments Fragmentation of production process Trade data do no longer reflect value-
added of exporting country What does did mean for Trade
imbalances? “Made in the World initiative” - WTO
Rise of Global Value Chains and Trade in Value Added
Bo MENG (IDE-JETRO)
Regional Seminar on International Trade Statistics (UNSD & NBS)
24-26 Oct. 2011 Beijing.
( C ) IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 10
Simple concept of GVCsPlanning of product
R&D/Design/Testing production
Procurement of parts & components
Assembly
Final products
Marketing/sale/export
Customer service/user support
( C ) IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 11
Simple concept of GVCsPlanning of product
R&D/Design/Testing production
Procurement of parts & components
Assembly
Final products
Marketing/sale/export
Customer service/user support
( C ) IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 12
Fragmentation production
( C ) IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 13
Made in USA ↓
Made in the World
Contribution of trade in intermediate goods
Contribution rateBefore 2002 vs after 2002
Intermediate goods:
38 %→ 54%Household consumption:
34 %→ 19%Capital goods:
16%→20%
( C ) IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 14
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Unit: Billion US $
Total trade in goods
Intermediate goods
Household consumption
Capital investment
Source: calculated by Bo MENG and Norihiko YAMANO, 2011 (using OECD data, preliminary)
Main data sources used in measuring GVCs
• Firm based data ( Apple, Toyota )Micro level, but lack of global viewpoint
• Bilateral trade data ( import and export )Global, but no inter-industry information
• National input-output dataInter-industry, but lack of global aspect
• International input-output dataInter-country, inter-industry, but time lag (almost 5 years)
( C ) IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 15
Vertical specialisationVertical specialisation
VS share = induced intermediate imports / total exports(=Hummels, et al. (2001) ‘s “Import contents of export”)
Country 1
Country 2
Country 3
Domestic intermediate
goods
Domestic sales
Capitalservices
Intermediate and final
goods
Exports of intermediate
goods
Exports of final goods
Domestic capital and
labour
Intermediate goods
( C ) IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 17
Source: WTO-IDE-JETRO (2011)
( C ) IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 18
Global Forum on Trade StatisticsMeasuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers?
organized jointly by UNSD and Eurostat in collaboration with WTO and UNCTAD
2-4 February 2011, Geneva, Switzerland
19
1. Measuring Global Trade2. New Recommendations
IMTS / SITS3. Data Sources4. Global Production and
Outsourcing5. Linking Trade and Business
Statistics6. Trade in Value-Added
Core business function:Production of final goods or services intended for the market/for third parties carried out by the enterprise and yielding income.
Support business function:Support business functions (ancillary activities) are carried out in order to permit or facilitate production of goods or services intended for the market/for third parties by the enterprise.
Distribution and logisticsMarketing, sales and after sales services ICT services Administrative and management functions Engineering and related technical servicesResearch & DevelopmentOther support functions
Global Production Statistics Denmark
International Sourcing study
ItalyNetherlandsNew Zealand
21
Linking Trade and Business Statistics
Istat
20%*
The link between the list of trade operators and the Business Register is the GATEWAY to any new and successful
developments in trade statistics
List of Trade operators
Trade flows micro-data
Business Register
Business surveys
Administrative and fiscal data
Special surveys on Globalisation: MNEs and international sourcing
“new figures” on the business characteristics of exporting and importing enterprises
“new figures” and analysis based on the full integration between Trade and Business Statistics
SECOND TYPE OF OUTPUT THIRD TYPE OF OUTPUT
“new figures” based on the count of trade operators, for instance by products and markets
FIRST TYPE OF OUTPUT
Integrating economical, functional and social statistics
Enterprise Firm Job Person
Statistics of Finances of Enterprises
International Trade Fiscal Data
Population register
Job register
Surveys Persons and HouseholdsStructural Business
Surveys and short term indicators
R&D
Investments
Business Register
Fiscal Data
1 : M 1 : N 1 : P
ConGO
Ownership (UCI)
What’s in the LBD?
24
Longitudinal Business Frame
Contains longitudinally linked data for most enterprises operating in NZ. Includes information on:
• employment
• location
• industry
• ownership relationship
Allows individual business to be tracked over time.
Administrative data
• Annual Enterprise Survey
• Business Operations Survey
• Manufacturing and Energy Use Survey
• Business Finance Survey
• Research and Development Survey
• International Trade in Services and Royalties
Survey data
• Goods and services tax data
• Financial accounts (IR10)
• Company tax returns (IR4)
• Linked Employer Employee Database
• Overseas merchandise trade
• Government assistance data
Longitudinal Business Database
USITCWTOOECD
25
Trade in Value-added
Global Forum Website
27
Regional Seminar on International Trade StatisticsBeijing, China, October 2011
29
Thank you
Ronald Jansen Trade Statistics BranchUnited Nations Statistics DivisionEmail: [email protected] Website: unstats.un.org/unsd/trade