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International Transport Forum
Transport infrastructure and economic growth
Dr Tim Leunig
Back to basics…
• Y=f(K,L)
• Diminishing marginal returns
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Violation 1
• A new technology that is so big, it saves a colossal amount of time
• Harry Potter’s flu powder
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Invention of the railway
• c. 25mph (40kmph) in the nineteenth century
• Compares with 2.5 mph (4kmph) walking or by cart
• London to Brighton was 3 days before, became 2 hours afterwards
• Used by lots of people
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Railways were usedJournal of Economic History, 2007
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Modern equivalent
• Low cost airlines replacing coaches?
• See Golson and Leunig on benefits of point to point service (just started!)
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The steamship for goods
• The British cotton industry – biggest in the world, 500k employed in cotton processing, 1.2m in textiles
• All raw cotton is imported, 80% of cotton cloth exported
• Nineteenth century English population growth outstrips Ireland’s. Ireland starves, and England gets rich…
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Violations 2
• Completing a network • Aschauer and American highways
• Digging the last metre of the channel tunnel was very worth while
• Repairing landslipped roads in China, Borneo, etc
• NOT Beeching – most journeys are point to point
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LatAm railways
• Complete the “LatAm farm – European table” chain
• Brazilian & Mexican railways have social savings of c. 33% 1913 (Summerhill, 2005, Coatsworth, 1979).
• The figure for Germany is <5% (Gremdling 1983)
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Prediction
• A transformational infrastructure project will usually transform a factor price
• Prior to the railways and the steam ship, land in Argentina’s interior was worthless.
• Ditto the American midwest with canals and railways
• Obvious parallels with international trade literature – factor price equalisation
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Suggestion
• If you claim a project will be transformational, state the factor price you predict will change.
• Will a new area of settlement open up, raising land prices?
• Will a new group of people “get connected”, raising wages?
• Will prices fall as new supplies come on stream?
• What quantity of the item is sold? Is it a lot?
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Modern day example 1
• Docklands
• The land was worth very little c. 1980.
• Now it is worth a lot (although not as much as the City)
• Prior to the DLR & JLE, land in Docklands was a poor substitute for land in the City.
• Afterwards it was a better substitute, and prices converged
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Why did it work?
• Because the City was bursting at the seams
• Finance was growing, rents were VERY high, wages were high
• It was a good bet as an industry to expand
• Up or out – we choose out, although since then have supplemented out with up
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Comparison with Sheffield
• Supertram is the same length as Docklands
• Built at the same time
• Passenger miles = 1/6 of Docklands
• Sheffield is not “land constrained” like the City
• No need to go up or out!
• Therefore transformed nothing
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Modern day example 2
• Prior to A8 accession, UK and Polish wages were very different.
• Lots of Poles came to work in London, and presumably wages converged a bit
• Ryanair helped, but the coach would have been sufficient
• It was deregulation of labour markets that caused price convergence, not transport
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Modern day 3 Øresund Bridge
• 5.3km
• $8bn
• 36m pas/year
• 40 Euros
• Only 1.25m people live in Skåne
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Violations 2
• Agglomeration economies• The post, telephone, fax, email, skype,
videoconferencing etc are poor substitutes for proper face to face interaction.
• 1 + 1 = 3
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Historically
• The railways were revolutionary
• Did they radically change the location of industry?
• No
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Journal of Economic History, 2007
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To think about
• The UK & French economies are > $2tr
• NOTHING can transform a $2tr economy
• (well, not upwards!)
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For govt to think about 1
• High prices
• If the price of something is very high, can you expand it, or allow it to expand?
• Silicon Valley vs Oxford and Cambridge
• O & C land values suggest that they should grow (£4m/ha with residential planning permission)
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For govt to think about 2
• Low prices
• If people in one place within the country are paid less than in another, can you connect them? Or allow them to move?
• If your people with skill level X are paid less than elsewhere, investigate why. It may be transport and lack of agglomeration (but not likely)
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For govt to think about 3
• Go to NY, London and LA
• Transport is pretty rubbish
• Yet they are successful
• Don’t overemphasise transport
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Is it transport that:
• Makes Reading richer than Rochdale? (no)
• Makes Switzerland richer than Swaziland (no)
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Questions?Comments?