Internet FutureInternet Future

Nordunet 2003Nordunet 2003

Vint Cerf

MCI

August 24, 2003

Internet - Global StatisticsInternet - Global Statistics

22.5 Million Hosts

(Bellcore June 1997)

50 Million Users

(NUA Jul 1997)

171.6 Million Hosts (ISC Jan 2003)

605 Million Users

(NUA Sept 2002)

(approx. 1.4 Billion Telephone Terminations)

Users on the Internet – Sept 2002Users on the Internet – Sept 2002

CAN/US - 182.67M Europe - 190.92M Asia/Pac - 187.24M Latin Am - 33.35M Africa - 6.31M Mid-east - 5.12M

--------------------------- Total - 605.6 M

CAN/US

Europe

Asia/Pac

Latin Am

Africa

Mid East

(Source www.nua.ie)(Source www.nua.ie)

Internet User TrendsInternet User Trends

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

'09

'11

'13

'15

Year

Use

rs (

Mill

ions

)

Source: Nua Internet Surveys + vgc projections

Estimate revised 4/2003

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006

hosts mobiles?

Global Internet Hosts (000s) 1989-2006Global Internet Hosts (000s) 1989-2006

605 Million users

Source: Cerf, based on www.nw.com, Jun 2000 + LM EricssonSource: Cerf, based on www.nw.com, Jun 2000 + LM Ericsson

Internet TrendsInternet Trends

Higher speed backbones (10-40 Gb/s per channel, up to 160 channels/fiber)

Higher speed access (gigabit ethernet) Optical switching in the core Wireless and mobile access

(802.11a/b/g, 802.16,UWB, 3G/4G, Bluetooth, etc.)

Internet-enabled AppliancesInternet-enabled Appliances

SIP TelephonySIP Telephony

Session Initiation Protocol Telephones

Cisco Systems, Pingtel, etc.

“email” addressing ENUM:

1.1.9.3.0.6.5.3.0.7.1.e164.arpa = sip:vinton.g.cerf@mci.com

NAPTR (naming authority pointer)

The power of SIP

(any domain name)

Major Technology IssuesMajor Technology Issues

Reliability and Availability Security of routers, DNS, servers and clients Internationalized Domain Names Broadband deployment (access, symmetry) Personal privacy Data integrity and confidentiality Deployment of IPv6 standard Authentication of parties in transactions

Policy IssuesPolicy Issues

Flat rate business models Intellectual Property (trademarks, copyright, domain

names) ICANN: Domain Names, IP Address allocation, dispute

resolution Online fraud and other abuses Censorship (blocking “web pages” and extra-territoriality);

geographic independence Taxation Security and Privacy Regulation, broadband, convergence Cryptography and export controls

Broadband DataBroadband Data

Competing technology is no guarantee of competition in the field Cable vs satellite vs DSL MMDS (not economic) 3G (spectral expense) Residential vs Commercial Markets

Asymmetry vs Symmetry Servers and services

Security and PrivacySecurity and Privacy

Tension between these desirable goals Amitai Etzioni: Limits to Privacy

Outlines the tension between protecting individual privacy and protecting society

Vulnerability increases as dependence grows on information technology and computer networking

Industry needs to take lead in securing systems – technologically and operationally

Individuals also have responsibilities

Future look. .

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

The IPN Team:

Juan Alsonso - SICS Adrian Hooke, Scott Burleigh, Leigh Torgerson –

JPL Eric Travis – GST Bob Durst, Keith Scott – MITRE Howard Weiss – SPARTA Kevin Fall – Intel/UC Berkeley Vint Cerf - WorldCom

2003-2004 Missions to Mars2003-2004 Missions to Mars

Spirit launched 6/10/2003 1:58 PM EDT arrives Jan 4, 2004 Gusev Crater in Gusev Plain

Opportunity Launched July 7, 2003 11:18 PM EDT arrives Jan 25, 2004 Meridiani Planum

GUSEV Plain

Meridiani Plain

Mars Exploration RoversMars Exploration Rovers

Cerf’s slides and other Cerf’s slides and other Internet information can be Internet information can be found at:found at:

www.mci.com/cerfsupwww.isoc.org/internetlivinginternet.comwww.ipnsig.orgwww.dtnrg.orgwww.dtnrg.orgwww.ipv6forum.comwww.ipv6forum.com