Internet Political Surveys: History & State of Play in the UK

Joe TwymanSpecial Projects Director

YouGov

In the Beginning

Face-to-Face Research• The foundation on which market research was built• The ‘Rolls-Royce’ of the industry

Mistakes made over 1992 General Election • Conservatives poll 8% more of the vote than Labour

What Went Wrong?

Two problem areas identified:

Response rates

Inaccuracy of responses

The Internet – a Brave New World

22nd April 1993

World Wide Web Multimedia Graphical User Interfaces

The Internet – a Brave New World

Internet penetration was growing• January 1997 10% penetration• January 2007 63% penetration

Relatively low level of investment required

Barriers to entry crumble

Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker

False Starts - 1996

BBC ‘Sports Personality of the Year’

Justin Fashanu

False Starts - 1999

BBC ‘Greatest Star of Stage or Screen’

Amitabh Bachchan

What Had Gone Wrong?

Difficulty in getting respondents to take part

Passive Sampling• Free for all• Quantity not quality

Active Sampling• Targeted approach• Restrictions on those allowed to take part

The UK Internet Population

More men than women• 53% to 47%

More young than old• 63% under 45

More ‘middle class’• 66% ABC1

Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker

The UK Internet Population

6% over the age of 65• Equivalent to over 1,500,000 people

15% are DEs• Equivalent to over 4,000,000 people

How do you find these people?

How do you convince them to take part?

Source: Ipsos-MORI Technology Tracker

Finding the Right People

Recruitment via internet marketing• Time consuming• Costly

Recruitment through traditional offline recruiters• Hugely expensive• Very inefficient• No guarantee of quality

Strategic partnerships important

Internet Political Surveys

June 2001 British General Election

September 2001 Conservative Leadership Election

May 2002 London Local Election

April 2003 Scottish Parliament Election

June 2004 European Election

May 2005 General Election

October 2005 Conservative Leadership Election

May 2007 Scottish Parliament Election

Internet Research

Internet research is big business• Accounts for 7.9% of total European market research

business• Estimated to have been worth £383,000,000 in 2006• Increasing from 6.4% and £297,000,000 in 2005• Average UK connection speeds rising from 1.6mbs at

December 2005 to 3.8mbs by December 2006

Misunderstanding, scepticism and even hostility still remain

Source: Inside Research (Feb 2007) / Ofcom

Scepticism Remains

‘We're using the internet as a way in which we can reduce the costs of data collection for our clients while also improving the quality of what we do for them and the quality of the delivery of data through the internet.’

David LowdenChief Executive Officer – TNS

5th March 2007

‘It is still way too early for public opinion polling to go online. Internet polling is like the Far West, with no rules, no sheriff and no reference points.’

Leendert de VoogdManaging Director - TNS Opinion

27th May 2007

Source: TNS Website / International Herald Tribune

Future Direction

Supply is boosted by removal of barriers to entry and low running costs

Cost savings passed to clients who boost demand

Data no longer a ‘fine malt whisky’

Changing Nature of Research

Lancashire Hotpot Causing

Changing Nature of Research

Lancashire Hotpot Causing

Constipation Hotspot

Things Can Still Go Wrong . . .

Downing Street E-Petitions Website

‘An own-goal thought up by a prat’

Things Can Still Go Wrong . . .

1,811,289 ‘respondents’

We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Scrap the planned vehicle tracking and road pricing policy.

We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Make Jeremy Clarkson Prime Minister.

We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to replace the national anthem with ‘Gold’ by Spandau Ballet.

MySpace ‘will give America its first presidential primary winner’

More than 55,000,000 American users of voting age

Things Can Still Go Wrong . . .

As for the Long Term Future?

Move to consulting and panel providers as technology becomes commonplace

The internet everywhere including mobile phones

Joe.Twyman@YouGov.com