Internet TrendsInternet Trends
Manitowoc-Two RiversManitowoc-Two Rivers
Chamber of CommerceChamber of Commerce
Vision 2011 SymposiumVision 2011 Symposium
Peter T. BreznayPeter T. BreznayUniversity of Wisconsin – Green BayUniversity of Wisconsin – Green Bay
Internet Trends 2
What it wasWhat it was What it isWhat it is
– Limitations of the current modelLimitations of the current model Where it is goingWhere it is going Economic and social implicationsEconomic and social implications
OutlineOutline
The Internet:The Internet:
Internet Trends 3
The Internet started as a DoD projectThe Internet started as a DoD project DoD wanted a network for data exchange DoD wanted a network for data exchange
between research sitesbetween research sites DARPA (Defence DARPA (Defence Advanced Research Advanced Research
Projects Agency) funded the first network: Projects Agency) funded the first network: ARPAnetARPAnet
NSF, Universities, others joined in (NSFNet)NSF, Universities, others joined in (NSFNet) Commercialized in 1990 Commercialized in 1990
Internet HistoryInternet History
Internet Trends 4
The First Vision of the InternetThe First Vision of the Internet
Internet Trends 5
The Internet is a network of computersThe Internet is a network of computers More precisely a network of networks of More precisely a network of networks of
computerscomputers Consists of the hardware + a set of Consists of the hardware + a set of
protocolsprotocols Main protocol is TCP/IPMain protocol is TCP/IP Plus some othersPlus some others
The Internet TodayThe Internet Today
Internet Trends 6
Internet Physical LayoutInternet Physical Layout
Internet Trends 7
Internet ProtocolsInternet Protocols
Internet Trends 8
Computers on the network are typically Computers on the network are typically either servers (e.g. Web Servers) or clientseither servers (e.g. Web Servers) or clients
Servers are identified by Internet addressesServers are identified by Internet addresses Currently 32-bit numberCurrently 32-bit number About 4 billion separate addresses are About 4 billion separate addresses are
availableavailable Separated into 4 8-bit segmentsSeparated into 4 8-bit segments Identify domains, leftmost byte is the Identify domains, leftmost byte is the
broadestbroadest
Addressing and DomainsAddressing and Domains
Internet Trends 9
Domain Name SuffixesDomain Name Suffixes
Internet Trends 10
Current version of TCP/IP is IPv4Current version of TCP/IP is IPv4 More than 100 countries are on the InternetMore than 100 countries are on the Internet Over 100 million nodesOver 100 million nodes Internet address space is running outInternet address space is running out
– There are assigned but underused domainsThere are assigned but underused domains IETF (Internet Engineering Task Force) has IETF (Internet Engineering Task Force) has
issued the new spec (August 10, 1998, Toronto)issued the new spec (August 10, 1998, Toronto) IPv6 also known as IPngIPv6 also known as IPng
Internet Next GenerationInternet Next Generation
Internet Trends 11
Expanded Routing and Addressing Capabilities Expanded Routing and Addressing Capabilities – increases the IP address size from 32 bits to 128 bitsincreases the IP address size from 32 bits to 128 bits
A new type of address called a "anycast address“A new type of address called a "anycast address“– allows nodes to control the path which their traffic allows nodes to control the path which their traffic
flowsflows
New Header FormatNew Header Format– Although IPng addresses are four times longer than the Although IPng addresses are four times longer than the
IPv4 addresses, the IPng header is only twice the size IPv4 addresses, the IPng header is only twice the size of the IPv4 header of the IPv4 header
– some IPv4 fields are dropped or made optionalsome IPv4 fields are dropped or made optional
IPv4 vs. IPv6IPv4 vs. IPv6IPv6 will provideIPv6 will provide
Internet Trends 12
Improved Support for Options Improved Support for Options – more efficient forwardingmore efficient forwarding
– less stringent limits on the length of optionsless stringent limits on the length of options
– greater flexibility for introducing new optionsgreater flexibility for introducing new options
Quality-of-Service Capabilities Quality-of-Service Capabilities – enable the labeling of packets belonging to particular enable the labeling of packets belonging to particular
traffic "flows" traffic "flows"
Authentication and Privacy CapabilitiesAuthentication and Privacy Capabilities– extensions to provide support for authentication, data extensions to provide support for authentication, data
integrity and confidentialityintegrity and confidentiality
IPv6 Additional CapabilitiesIPv6 Additional Capabilities
Internet Trends 13
Multimedia/entertainmentMultimedia/entertainment CommunicationsCommunications ComputingComputing
Internet Broad TrendsInternet Broad Trends
Trend 1: Trend 1: Continued merging of three major Continued merging of three major areas of areas of information technologyinformation technology
Internet Trends 14
Broadband Broadband WiFiWiFi Mobile TelephonyMobile Telephony BluetoothBluetooth
Internet Broad TrendsInternet Broad Trends
Trend 2: Trend 2: Continued increase of speed and Continued increase of speed and mobility of accessmobility of access
Internet Trends 15
Impacts e-commerceImpacts e-commerce– Customers who watch videos are 19% percent Customers who watch videos are 19% percent
more likely to buy than those who just look at more likely to buy than those who just look at picturespictures
Video on demandVideo on demand– Movie industry is moving films from theaters to Movie industry is moving films from theaters to
DVD and cableDVD and cable– Download could undermine thatDownload could undermine that– Movie industry is likely to offer paid download Movie industry is likely to offer paid download
soonsoon
Internet MultimediaInternet Multimedia
Internet Trends 16
MP3 peer to peer model turned to paid MP3 peer to peer model turned to paid downloaddownload– Napster was shut downNapster was shut down– But Apple iTunes (99 But Apple iTunes (99 ¢¢/song) is a huge success/song) is a huge success
New business model experimentationsNew business model experimentations– ESPN Motion (60-90 second video reports)ESPN Motion (60-90 second video reports)– RealOne OpenPass RealOne OpenPass – Online gamingOnline gaming
Internet MultimediaInternet Multimedia
Internet Trends 17
Chat services impact e-commerceChat services impact e-commerce– Land’s End study: new customers are 70% percent Land’s End study: new customers are 70% percent
more likely to buy if they talk to a sales rep via on-more likely to buy if they talk to a sales rep via on-line chatline chat
Traditionally computing devices are increasingly Traditionally computing devices are increasingly incremented with communications capabilitiesincremented with communications capabilities– PDAs, laptops with mobile internet accessPDAs, laptops with mobile internet access
And vice versaAnd vice versa– Mobile phones with built-in browser, PDA, photo Mobile phones with built-in browser, PDA, photo
editingediting
Internet CommunicationsInternet Communications
Internet Trends 18
Computing power has been going up, price Computing power has been going up, price downdown– Moore’s law: number of transistors per silicon chip Moore’s law: number of transistors per silicon chip
doubles every 18 months, is holding updoubles every 18 months, is holding up But computing power is underutilizedBut computing power is underutilized
– Average server runs at 30% of capacityAverage server runs at 30% of capacity– On every 1$ companies spend on computing they On every 1$ companies spend on computing they
spend $3 on operating costsspend $3 on operating costs New paradigms are needed to better utilize New paradigms are needed to better utilize
today’s computing technologytoday’s computing technology
Internet ComputingInternet Computing
Internet Trends 19
Blade computersBlade computers– Servers reduced to the size of a legal padServers reduced to the size of a legal pad– Stacked up on shelvesStacked up on shelves– Reduce operating costs and electricity bill by 25%Reduce operating costs and electricity bill by 25%
Grid computingGrid computing– Works both on the Internet and private networksWorks both on the Internet and private networks– Software allocates tasks over the networkSoftware allocates tasks over the network– Searches for available computing capacitySearches for available computing capacity– Same paradigm as the electrical grid but for Same paradigm as the electrical grid but for
computing powercomputing power
Internet ComputingInternet Computing
Internet Trends 20
Throughput Computing -Sun Microsystems Throughput Computing -Sun Microsystems – Manufacture the capacity of 8 servers on a single Manufacture the capacity of 8 servers on a single
silicon chipsilicon chip– Ideal for Web serversIdeal for Web servers– 500 million to 1 billion transistors per chip500 million to 1 billion transistors per chip– Planned for 2005 in form of a blade serverPlanned for 2005 in form of a blade server
Flexible computers – TRIPSFlexible computers – TRIPS– Chip allows itself to be reprogrammed by the serverChip allows itself to be reprogrammed by the server– E.g. to switch from Web page optimization to an E.g. to switch from Web page optimization to an
on-line game optimized arrangementon-line game optimized arrangement
Internet ComputingInternet Computing
Internet Trends 21
Crucial to achieve the full commercial Crucial to achieve the full commercial potential of the Internetpotential of the Internet– US households with broadband access will jump US households with broadband access will jump
40% this year to 25 million40% this year to 25 million– Customers with broadband buy 30% more online Customers with broadband buy 30% more online
than narrowband usersthan narrowband users Broadband connections are always onBroadband connections are always on
– After signing up for broadband, users spend two-After signing up for broadband, users spend two-thirds more time online (2 hours per day)thirds more time online (2 hours per day)
– There is talk of the “broadband lifestyle”There is talk of the “broadband lifestyle”
BroadbandBroadband
Internet Trends 22
IEEE specification for wireless product IEEE specification for wireless product interoperabilityinteroperability– IEEE 802.11 (802.11a and 802.11b)IEEE 802.11 (802.11a and 802.11b)– WiFi Alliance certifies productsWiFi Alliance certifies products– More than 200 companies and over 900 productsMore than 200 companies and over 900 products– Radio frequency operationRadio frequency operation– 5 GHz for 802.11a, 2.4 GHz for 802.11b5 GHz for 802.11a, 2.4 GHz for 802.11b
LAWNLAWN– Wireless LAN (a group of specifications)Wireless LAN (a group of specifications)– Uses 802.11 radio frequency connections among Uses 802.11 radio frequency connections among
nodes instead of wiresnodes instead of wires
WiFiWiFi
23
Cable replacement technologyCable replacement technology– Initiated by Ericsson (Swedish mobile phone Initiated by Ericsson (Swedish mobile phone
manufacturer)manufacturer)– Named after Viking king Harald (liked blueberries)Named after Viking king Harald (liked blueberries)– Small inexpensive (~$5) radio chip plugged on or Small inexpensive (~$5) radio chip plugged on or
manufactured into any electronic devicemanufactured into any electronic device Bluetooth use is extended to non-computing Bluetooth use is extended to non-computing
devicesdevices– Mobile phone to printer, printer to printer, mobile Mobile phone to printer, printer to printer, mobile
phone to headphone etc.phone to headphone etc.– Commercial ideas: notifying cargo, refrigerator Commercial ideas: notifying cargo, refrigerator
ordering food over the Internet etc.ordering food over the Internet etc.
BluetoothBluetooth
Internet Trends 24
Manufacturing is in decline in developed Manufacturing is in decline in developed countriescountries– Low labor costs in developing countries makes Low labor costs in developing countries makes
manufacturing over-expensivemanufacturing over-expensive Which urban areas are booming?Which urban areas are booming?
– Richard Florida investigated thisRichard Florida investigated this– The Rise of the Creative ClassThe Rise of the Creative Class
Economic and Social ImplicationsEconomic and Social Implications
Internet Trends 25
Top 10 metropolitan areas in the U.S.Top 10 metropolitan areas in the U.S.
1- San Francisco1- San Francisco2- Austin2- Austin3- Boston3- Boston3- San Diego (tie)3- San Diego (tie)5- Seattle5- Seattle6- Raleigh-Durham6- Raleigh-Durham7- Houston7- Houston8- Washington-Baltimore8- Washington-Baltimore9- New York9- New York10- Minneapolis-St. Paul10- Minneapolis-St. Paul10- Dallas (tie)10- Dallas (tie)
Economic and Social ImplicationsEconomic and Social Implications
Internet Trends 26
Companies follow the workforce not the other Companies follow the workforce not the other way roundway round– U.S. population is ageingU.S. population is ageing– There is a shrinking workforceThere is a shrinking workforce– U.S. Census: 50 largest metro areas had fewer U.S. Census: 50 largest metro areas had fewer
young people (25 to 34 years old) in 2000 than in young people (25 to 34 years old) in 2000 than in 1990 1990
– Trend reversed: companies are going where the Trend reversed: companies are going where the educated young adults are not the other way roundeducated young adults are not the other way round
Economic and Social ImplicationsEconomic and Social Implications
Internet Trends 27
The decisive factor is the social and cultural The decisive factor is the social and cultural environmentenvironment– Young adults appreciate lifestyle over moneyYoung adults appreciate lifestyle over money– They seek lifestyle, culture and diversityThey seek lifestyle, culture and diversity
““Old school” vs. “new school”Old school” vs. “new school”– Building football stadiums is old schoolBuilding football stadiums is old school– Attracts mostly blue collar classes but those are Attracts mostly blue collar classes but those are
shrinkingshrinking– Universities, art movie theaters, book shops, cafes, Universities, art movie theaters, book shops, cafes,
ethnic restaurants, gay-friendly culture are “new ethnic restaurants, gay-friendly culture are “new school”school”
Economic and Social ImplicationsEconomic and Social Implications
Internet Trends 28
Internet Trends 29
