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Interpretation of macro indicators of energy intensities
Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata
Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica
2
Middle East
Africa Latin America
Total Asia other
Europe/CIS
Asia OECD
North America
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2009 2012
Increasing number of countries with quantitative targets
Targets are expressed in different ways and relate to different part of the consumption: on total (primary )consumption (around 20%) , on final energy consumption (around 20%) , or end-use sectors (case of 60% of countries)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Primary Final consumptionEnd-use sectors Energy Suppliers
Countries with quantitative targets
Source WEC surveys ( 85 countries, of which 10 in Latin America)
3
Mode of expression of policy targets by region
Europe CIS North America
Latin America
Africa Asia OECD
Asia other Middle East
Total0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Energy consumption reduction Energy efficiency improvementEnergy intensity reduction Incandescent lamps banishmentDiffusion of efficient equipment & other
Predominance of targets on energy savings and energy efficiency improvement which can be either a fix savings compared to an historical consumption (case of EU countries that must save 9% of their average final consumption over 2001-2005 ) or compared to a projection (case of several Latin American countries).But also targets on energy intensity reduction still exists.
Source WEC surveys ( 85 countries, of which 10 in Latin America)
4
Macro indicators are mainly energy intensity indicators that relate the energy consumption to the GDP .
These energy intensities can first of all be used to monitor these energy intensity targets;
They also enable to understand the dynamics of the primary and final energy consumption in relation to the economic growth and the different trends in these intensities.
As the difference between the primary energy intensity and final energy intensity is mainly explained by the power sector, macro indicators will also include the power sector.
Macro indicators: what are they ?
Out
line
1. Energy intensity trends2. Primary vs final intensity3. Final energy intensity variation: role of
structural changes
1. Absolute values of intensities are not really meaningful .
2. Instead of showing annual trends with multiple fluctuations, summarize trends by period
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Primary intensityFinal energy intensity
koe/
M$9
3
Argentina
How to analyze trend in energy intensities?
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
20110.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Primary intensityFinal energy intensity
koe/
M$2
000
Costa Rica
3. A trend over 1990 -2011 is meaningful in both countries (increase then decrease) define trends on homogenous periods (e.g. 1998-2004 and 2004-2011 for Costa Rica).
Variations over time of energy intensities are usually expressed in average annual growth per year (%/yr) over a period: they measure overall energy efficiency trends from an economic viewpoint
Trends in primary energy intensity : Argentina (%/year)
1990-1995 1995-1998 1998-2004 2004-2010-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Primary intensity Final intensity
Average annual growth rate (% per year) (agr) between year m and n : agr= ((In/Im)* (1/(n-m) – 1)*100as In= Im (1+agr) n-m (with I energy intensity)
Regular decrease in Argentina since 2004, slightly faster for final than primary intensityBefore increase faster for primary than final
Sendero Energético: case of Uruguay
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 1805.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0 1000 tep
600 tep
700. tep
800.tep.
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001 2002
2003 2004
2005
2006 2007
2008
2009
2010
PIB/hab
kte
p/$
20
05
Source: DNE/MIEM
Out
line
1. Energy intensity trends2. Primary vs final intensity3. Final energy intensity variation : role of
structural changes
10
Primary and final intensity trends: case of Brazil
Source BIEE/EPE
Different trends as to the variation of primary and final intensity in Brazil depending on energy transformations and mainly the power sectorSince 1998, and especially since 2005, energy transformations contribute to increase the primary intensity due to the development of thermal power generation and biofuels production
-2%-2%-1%-1%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%
1990-1993 1993-1998 1998-2005 2005-2010
%/a
ño
Intensidad primária Intensidad final Transformación
Different trends in primary and final energy intensities
As a long term trend, primary intensity increases faster (or decrease slower) than final intensity due to increased losses in energy transformations.
Indeed, economies are more and more electricity intensive, which increase transformations losses as electricity is produced with conversion losses , the magnitude of which depends on the power mix (thermal vs renewables (hydro, wind…) and the accounting of hydro and wind (no loss for hydro and wind with IEA but same losses as thermal for OLADE)
However on recent years and in some EU countries reverse trends are observed due to improved efficiency of power plants (gas combined cycle, cogeneration, wind)
With the IEA accounting, year to year variation depend on the share of hydro and wind in power generation as there is no loss for hydro and to 60-70% losses for thermal plant and 67% for nuclear
The primary intensity decreases slower than the final intensity in Argentina since 2004 (or increased faster between 1998 and 2004). Part of it may be due to increasing losses in transformations linked to a reduction in power efficiency and increasing market share of electricity for final consumers
Trends in primary energy intensity : Argentina (%/year)
1990-1995 1995-1998 1998-2004 2004-2010-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Primary intensity Final intensity Transformations
13
Share of hydro in power generation in Brazil
Source BIEE/EPE
Increase in thermal power generation , contribute to reduce the average efficiency of power generation , which increases losses in energy transformations and contributes to increase the primary intensity.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1995 2005 2010
Eficiencia del sector eléctrico
Eficiencia del sector eléctrico (térmico)
Efficiency of power generation in Brazil
Decomposition of primary intensity variations
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
1993 1998 2005 2010
ktoe
/M$2
000
Intensidade final Generación eléctrica Otras transformaciones
Case of Brasil
Source: BIEE/EPE
1998 2004 20100.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Final energy intensity Power generationOther transformations
koe/
M$9
3
Case of Argentina
Source: BIEE/Secretaria de Energia
Most of the losses in transformations come from the power sector : 80% of the gap in general , of which 3/4 losses in thermal power generation and 5% T&D losses
Share of electricity in final consumption in Argentina
1990 1995 1998 2004 20100%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% electrcity
Source BIEE
Increasing share of electricity result in increasing losses in transformations as significant part of power generation in thermal power plants, i.e. with losses
Out
line
1. Energy intensity trends2. Primary vs final intensity3. Final energy intensity variation : role of
structural changes
1998 2004 20100.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
industry transport households services agriculture
koe/
M$9
3
Final energy intensity by sector: Argentina
Where does the reduction of energy intensity come from ?Contraction of industry and services contribution to total final energy intensity
Industry: energy consumption to VAAgriculture: energy consumption to VA Services: GDP: energy consumption to VATransport: no intensity as VA of transport correspond to transport companies only ; can only be related to the GDP As industry is more energy intensive than services ( industry has a higher intensity than services , by ~ a factor 7 on average at word level), any increase in the share of services in GDP contribute to decrease the final energy intensity (or the other way around if the share of industry increases) structural effect
To see what is the impact of structural changes, need to show :-- the change in the share of agriculture, services and industry in total GDP-- the differences of intensity by sector
Sectoral intensities
Sectoral intensities and structural changes: case of Brazil (1/2)
Intensidad energética sectorial (ktoe/M$2000)
Source: BIEE/EPE0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
ktoe
/M$2
000
Agricultura Industria Servicios
Services are 20 times less intensive than industry As the share of services in increasing, this contributes to reduce the final energy intensity
1995 2005 20100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Agricultura IndustriaServicios Impuestos
GDP structure
Sectoral intensities and structural changes: case of Brazil
Source: BIEE/EPE
The increasing share of services in the GDP contributed to reduce the final energy intensity by 0.4%/year between 1995 and 2009, all things being equal
1990-95 1995-99 1999-2009 2009-2011
-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
Final intensity Final intensity at constant structureStrutural changes
Sectoral intensities and structural changes:
case of Uruguay
Intensidad energética sectorial (koe/MUYU05)
Source: MIEM/DNE0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Agricultura Industria Servicios
Services are 11 times less intensive than industry As the share of services in increasing, this contributes to reduce the final energy intensity
2000 2007 20110%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
59.3% 56.1% 60.8%
Agricultura IndustriaServicios Impuestos
GDP structure
Sectoral intensities and structural changes:
case of Uruguay (2/2)
Source: MIEM/DNE
As the share of services in increasing, this contributed to reduce the final energy intensity by 0.5%/year on average between 2000 and 2011, all things being equal
2000-2007 2007-2011 2000-2011
-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
Final intensity Final intensity at constant structureStrutural changes