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Intro · 2020. 3. 1. · Hoarding food vs. hoarding money – collapse of system A: Central bank...

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  • Intro

    What’s happening to People

    Health contagion Gaining time

    Real economyruns contagion

    Scenario: V vs. L

  • Intro

    What’s happening to People

    Health contagion Gaining time

    Real economy Supply chains Hoarding

  • Intro

    What’s happening to People

    Health contagion Gaining time

    Real economy Supply chains Hoarding

    Financial markets Financial runs contagion

  • Intro

    What’s happening to People

    Health contagion Gaining time

    Real economy Supply chains Hoarding

    Financial markets Financial runs contagion

  • Intro

    What’s happening to People

    Health contagion Gaining time

    Real economy Supply chains Hoarding

    Financial markets Financial runs contagion

    Q: What’s the difference btw. economic hoarding vs. financial run?

    Hoarding food vs. hoarding money – collapse of system

  • Intro

    What’s happening to People

    Health contagion Gaining time

    Real economy Supply chains Hoarding

    Financial markets Financial runs contagion

    Q: What’s the difference btw. economic hoarding vs. financial run?

    Hoarding food vs. hoarding money – collapse of system A: Central bank can print money (at no cost), but not food

  • Shocks and Amplification

    Nature of the initial economic shock Temporary vs. permanent (V, U, L-shaped) Supply vs. demand (1970s) Aggregate vs. idiosyncratic (finance) …

    Nature of amplification/feedback effects/spirals/non-linearities Risk-on to risk-off Flight-to-safety (safe asset = good friend indeed)

    Multiple equilibria

  • Financial Markets

    Stock market

  • Financial Markets

    Stock market Credit/Funding Markets – Who funds gov./businesses/HH? Via capital markets & shadow banks

    Gov. / Corporate bonds (long-run) Commercial paper (short-run) Repo market = collateralized lending Money market funds

  • Financial Markets

    Stock market Credit/Funding Markets – Who funds gov./businesses/HH? Via capital markets & shadow banks

    Gov. / Corporate bonds (long-run) Commercial paper (short-run) Repo market = collateralized lending Money market funds+ Market making (step between buyer and seller of assets)

  • Financial Markets

    Stock market Credit/Funding Markets – Who funds gov./businesses/HH? Via capital markets & shadow banks

    Gov. / Corporate bonds (long-run) Commercial paper (short-run) Repo market = collateralized lending Money market funds+ Market making (step between buyer and seller of assets)

    Via banks Loans Interbank market

  • Financial Markets

    Stock market Credit/Funding Markets – Who funds gov./businesses/HH? Via capital markets & shadow banks

    Gov. / Corporate bonds (long-run) Commercial paper (short-run) Repo market = collateralized lending Money market funds+ Market making (step between buyer and seller of assets)

    Via banks Loans Interbank market

    Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Currencies International capital flows - Flight-to-safety (risk-off)

  • Questions

    Do financial markets overact … or simply react/correct? Does it matter? Why (not)? Should central bank care? About Stock market? Credit/funding markets? Market making (US Treasury)?

    Should government restore funding by by-passing financial sector? Loan: COVID-19 Liquidity Life Line Proposal (Europe)

    Exploit that tax authorities can enforce payment as an add-on to taxes

    Gift: $1000-Check/Helicopter money (US/Hong Kong)

    https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/markus/files/covid_liquiditylifeline.pdf

  • COVID-19 and Global Financial Markets

    Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist

    Managing Director60 Wall Street

    New York, New York 10005Tel: 212 250 2155

    [email protected]

    March 2020

    DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 066/04/2019.

    Deutsche Bank

    Research

  • Deutsche Bank Research 1Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    1. Before the virus2. The virus3. Financial market reaction to the virus4. Fed and ECB reaction5. Fiscal policy reaction6. Macroeconomic implications

    Outline

  • Deutsche Bank Research 2Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    Before the virus

  • Deutsche Bank Research 3Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    Number of months U.S. economy in recession

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    9017

    80s

    1790

    s18

    00s

    1810

    s18

    20s

    1830

    s18

    40s

    1850

    s18

    60s

    1870

    s18

    80s

    1890

    s19

    00s

    1910

    s19

    20s

    1930

    s19

    40s

    1950

    s19

    60s

    1970

    s19

    80s

    1990

    s20

    00s

    2010

    s

    #

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90#

    US: Since 1776 we have never before had a decade without a recession

    Source: NBER, Wikipedia, DB Global Research

  • Deutsche Bank Research 4Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    Global sectoral debt as % of GDP

    0255075

    100125150175200225250275300325

    1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

    %

    0255075100125150175200225250275300325

    %Households Non-fin corporates Government Financial Corporates

    Global debt as a share of GDP

    Source: IIF Global Debt Monitor, DB Global Research

  • Deutsche Bank Research 5Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    The virus

  • Deutsche Bank Research 6Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020Source: Johns Hopkins University, DB Global Research

    The second derivative is key for markets

    Last Updated: 3/19/2020

    0

    10000

    20000

    30000

    40000

    50000

    60000

    70000

    80000

    90000

    0

    10000

    20000

    30000

    40000

    50000

    60000

    70000

    80000

    90000

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

    # of cases# of cases

    Number of days since confirmed cases exceeded 100

    Cumulative Confirmed Coronavirus [COVID-19] CasesChina China ex Hubei South Korea ItalyFrance Germany Japan IranSpain US United Kingdom SwitzerlandDenmark

  • Deutsche Bank Research 7Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020Source: Johns Hopkins University, DB Global Research

    The second derivative matters for markets

    Last Updated: 3/18/2020

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

    # of cases# of cases

    Number of days since death cases exceeded "zero"

    Cumulative deaths in Coronavirus [COVID-19] CasesChina China ex Hubei South Korea ItalyFrance Germany Japan IranSpain US UK

  • Deutsche Bank Research 8Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    Financial market reaction to the virus

  • Deutsche Bank Research 9Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    US financial stress somewhat above 2011 levels

    Source: OFR, Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics, DB Global Research

    -14

    -12

    -10

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2-7.5

    0.0

    7.5

    15.0

    22.5

    30.0

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    IndexIndex Financial stress in the United States

    OFR Financial Stress Index (0=Average Stress Level) (ls)Bloomberg United States Financial Conditions Index (Inverted axis,rs)

    Latest obs:March 19, 2020

  • Deutsche Bank Research 10Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Research

    Global stock markets have lost $25trn over the past month

    0

    10

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    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    $, tn$, tn Bloomberg world exchange market capitalization

  • Deutsche Bank Research 11Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    Number of days it took for S&P500 to enter bear market

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    Feb 82 Oct 57 Jan 70 Mar 01 Nov 73 Jul 08 Aug 66 May 62 Oct 87 Oct 29 Mar 20

    # days

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    # days

    Source: S&P, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Research

    Note: A bear market is when the index falls 20% from an all-time high in the last 52 weeks

    15 days: Fastest 20% correction in the S&P500 on record

  • Deutsche Bank Research 12Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    Rates and equity vol at 2008/2009 levels

    Source: CBOE, WSJ, Haver Analytics, DB Global Research

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    IndexIndex 10yr treasury note VIX (ls) VIX (rs)

  • Deutsche Bank Research 13Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Research

    The number of circuit breakers

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

    # number# number Number of times S&P 500 fell 7% and hit a circuit breaker

  • Deutsche Bank Research 14Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    Signs of stress in funding markets

    Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Research

    -140

    -120

    -100

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    bpsbps LIBOR-OIS spread (ls) FRA-OIS spread (ls) EURUSD swap basis (rs)

  • Deutsche Bank Research 15Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Research

    -1.0

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    -1.0

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    pptsppts

    Fin CP-OIS Non-fin CP - OIS

    Commercial paper markets

  • Deutsche Bank Research 16Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020

    Yields on Investment grade and High yield corporate bonds

    Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Research

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

    %% Bloomberg Barclays indices' yield to worst

    IG HY

  • Deutsche Bank Research 17Torsten Slok, [email protected] +1 212 250-2155 March 2020Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Research

    0

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    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

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    14

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    20

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    %% Bloomberg Barclays OAS for United States

    IG HY

    IG and HY spread

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    43000430000

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    43006430060

    43007430070

    43010430100

    43011430110

    43012430120

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    43299432990

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    43304433040

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    43320433200

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    43326433260

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    43591435910

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    43599435990

    43600436000

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    43602436020

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    43609436090

    43612436120

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    43791437910

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    43796437960

    43797437970

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    43801438010

    43802438020

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    43809438090

    43810438100

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    43818438180

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    43893438930

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    43900439000

    43901439010

    43902439020

    43903439030

    43906439060

    43907439070

    43908439080

    IG

    HY

    %

    %

    Bloomberg Barclays OAS for United States

    0.88

    2.77

    0.88

    2.77

    0.88

    2.82

    0.88

    2.8

    0.88

    2.78

    0.88

    2.76

    0.87

    2.74

    0.87

    2.68

    0.86

    2.67

    0.86

    2.67

    0.86

    2.66

    0.86

    2.61

    0.85

    2.62

    0.85

    2.59

    0.85

    2.59

    0.85

    2.55

    0.84

    2.54

    0.84

    2.48

    0.84

    2.5

    0.84

    2.49

    0.85

    2.53

    0.86

    2.58

    0.85

    2.54

    0.85

    2.55

    0.85

    2.56

    0.84

    2.56

    0.84

    2.54

    0.83

    2.54

    0.83

    2.49

    0.84

    2.48

    0.84

    2.47

    0.84

    2.51

    0.83

    2.5

    0.83

    2.48

    0.83

    2.48

    0.83

    2.48

    0.82

    2.45

    0.82

    2.41

    0.82

    2.47

    0.83

    2.5

    0.85

    2.7

    0.85

    2.66

    0.86

    2.71

    0.87

    2.79

    0.88

    2.87

    0.87

    2.84

    0.88

    2.81

    0.87

    2.74

    0.87

    2.65

    0.87

    2.7

    0.88

    2.82

    0.9

    2.85

    0.9

    2.8

    0.91

    2.81

    0.9

    2.78

    0.91

    2.81

    0.91

    2.83

    0.9

    2.75

    0.9

    2.72

    0.9

    2.75

    0.9

    2.75

    0.91

    2.78

    0.91

    2.76

    0.92

    2.75

    0.92

    2.76

    0.92

    2.74

    0.93

    2.78

    0.92

    2.76

    0.92

    2.76

    0.92

    2.7

    0.91

    2.71

    0.9

    2.7

    0.9

    2.69

    0.91

    2.66

    0.91

    2.64

    0.91

    2.68

    0.91

    2.68

    0.91

    2.67

    0.91

    2.64

    0.91

    2.65

    0.91

    2.66

    0.91

    2.63

    0.91

    2.59

    0.92

    2.59

    0.92

    2.66

    0.92

    2.66

    0.92

    2.64

    0.91

    2.59

    0.91

    2.61

    0.91

    2.61

    0.91

    2.61

    0.91

    2.56

    0.91

    2.57

    0.91

    2.55

    0.91

    2.47

    0.91

    2.46

    0.9

    2.46

    0.9

    2.42

    0.9

    2.37

    0.9

    2.38

    0.9

    2.33

    0.9

    2.33

    0.9

    2.33

    0.9

    2.33

    0.9

    2.33

    0.9

    2.33

    0.9

    2.35

    0.9

    2.38

    0.91

    2.34

    0.9

    2.37

    0.91

    2.34

    0.92

    2.39

    0.92

    2.42

    0.93

    2.46

    0.94

    2.46

    0.94

    2.44

    0.94

    2.48

    0.93

    2.45

    0.93

    2.47

    0.93

    2.49

    0.93

    2.56

    0.93

    2.55

    0.95

    2.62

    0.96

    2.66

    0.96

    2.79

    0.97

    2.77

    0.98

    2.88

    0.97

    2.85

    0.97

    2.92

    0.98

    2.95

    0.98

    2.92

    0.98

    2.92

    0.98

    2.86

    0.98

    2.83

    0.98

    2.88

    0.99

    3.06

    1

    3.11

    1

    3.03

    0.99

    2.99

    1.01

    3.03

    1.02

    3.01

    1.03

    3.17

    1.03

    3.17

    1.05

    3.33

    1.06

    3.42

    1.07

    3.58

    1.09

    3.67

    1.15

    4.09

    1.19

    4.24

    1.24

    4.22

    1.26

    4.13

    1.27

    4.16

    1.26

    4.09

    1.26

    4.14

    1.27

    4.18

    1.27

    4.1

    1.22

    3.83

    1.24

    3.94

    1.26

    4.01

    1.26

    3.98

    1.27

    4.06

    1.35

    4.24

    1.44

    4.49

    1.39

    4.45

    1.41

    4.47

    1.4

    4.52

    1.4

    4.4

    1.37

    4.33

    1.38

    4.28

    1.38

    4.3

    1.39

    4.43

    1.39

    4.43

    1.42

    4.48

    1.45

    4.42

    1.45

    4.42

    1.46

    4.4

    1.47

    4.47

    1.48

    4.42

    1.52

    4.58

    1.53

    4.65

    1.54

    4.59

    1.55

    4.53

    1.54

    4.41

    1.57

    4.42

    1.56

    4.38

    1.55

    4.33

    1.5

    4.17

    1.49

    4.09

    1.44

    4.03

    1.43

    3.97

    1.45

    4.02

    1.44

    4

    1.45

    4.03

    1.45

    4.05

    1.46

    4.03

    1.45

    4.04

    1.43

    4.01

    1.41

    3.98

    1.38

    3.86

    1.38

    3.86

    1.38

    3.82

    1.36

    3.78

    1.35

    3.71

    1.34

    3.69

    1.32

    3.7

    1.33

    3.79

    1.35

    3.95

    1.38

    4.1

    1.39

    4.24

    1.44

    4.28

    1.42

    4.23

    1.44

    4.31

    1.44

    4.29

    1.44

    4.29

    1.43

    4.29

    1.43

    4.31

    1.43

    4.21

    1.46

    4.38

    1.51

    4.5

    1.55

    4.53

    1.54

    4.51

    1.57

    4.62

    1.6

    4.76

    1.63

    4.87

    1.63

    4.87

    1.65

    4.93

    1.65

    4.9

    1.7

    5.13

    1.73

    5.23

    1.75

    5.46

    1.77

    5.57

    1.79

    5.74

    1.79

    5.74

    1.79

    5.7

    1.79

    5.83

    1.81

    5.79

    1.83

    5.65

    1.87

    5.64

    1.93

    5.56

    1.96

    5.63

    2

    5.71

    2.02

    5.68

    2

    5.55

    2.05

    5.45

    2.03

    5.39

    2.02

    5.51

    2.02

    5.44

    2.02

    5.41

    1.98

    5.36

    1.99

    5.44

    1.99

    5.52

    2

    5.56

    1.99

    5.63

    1.98

    5.53

    1.97

    5.51

    1.97

    5.51

    1.97

    5.45

    1.97

    5.55

    1.97

    5.64

    1.98

    5.69

    1.98

    5.69

    1.99

    5.84

    2

    5.91

    2.02

    6.09

    2.04

    6.17

    2.06

    6.23

    2.11

    6.45

    2.11

    6.36

    2.09

    6.41

    2.12

    6.42

    2.14

    6.48

    2.16

    6.56

    2.17

    6.72

    2.19

    6.78

    2.19

    6.78

    2.3

    7.13

    2.29

    7.21

    2.25

    6.85

    2.22

    6.72

    2.23

    6.76

    2.21

    6.6

    2.21

    6.56

    2.26

    6.68

    2.26

    6.7

    2.25

    6.66

    2.25

    6.8

    2.27

    6.84

    2.28

    6.85

    2.29

    7

    2.3

    7.11

    2.31

    7.11

    2.32

    7.11

    2.31

    7.01

    2.34

    7.09

    2.34

    7.09

    2.35

    7.01

    2.36

    6.99

    2.36

    7.09

    2.36

    7.09

    2.36

    6.93

    2.37

    6.93

    2.37

    6.93

    2.39

    7.12

    2.47

    7.45

    2.52

    7.48

    2.55

    7.45

    2.59

    7.36

    2.63

    7.47

    2.7

    7.6

    2.73

    7.74

    2.74

    7.6

    2.77

    7.79

    2.83

    7.93

    2.93

    8.06

    2.98

    8.31

    2.98

    8.12

    2.92

    8.07

    2.96

    8.13

    2.96

    8.13

    2.9

    7.79

    2.84

    7.67

    2.86

    7.69

    2.84

    7.63

    2.85

    7.68

    2.89

    7.81

    2.85

    7.6

    2.81

    7.42

    2.77

    7.33

    2.73

    7.31

    2.67

    7.11

    2.66

    7.16

    2.69

    7.33

    2.71

    7.33

    2.72

    7.38

    2.73

    7.31

    2.72

    7.29

    2.69

    7.1

    2.66

    7.01

    2.61

    6.8

    2.57

    6.78

    2.56

    6.71

    2.55

    6.69

    2.54

    6.55

    2.51

    6.47

    2.5

    6.49

    2.47

    6.52

    2.44

    6.53

    2.42

    6.46

    2.35

    6.29

    2.34

    6.29

    2.36

    6.34

    2.36

    6.35

    2.38

    6.47

    2.4

    6.53

    2.4

    6.53

    2.4

    6.37

    2.39

    6.3

    2.35

    6.35

    2.34

    6.29

    2.33

    6.26

    2.35

    6.34

    2.36

    6.3

    2.38

    6.23

    2.4

    6.35

    2.4

    6.35

    2.41

    6.35

    2.39

    6.25

    2.38

    6.2

    2.35

    6.22

    2.37

    6.33

    2.39

    6.45

    2.39

    6.46

    2.38

    6.19

    2.39

    6.26

    2.37

    6.15

    2.36

    6.05

    2.37

    6.13

    2.37

    6.06

    2.36

    6.02

    2.36

    6.04

    2.37

    6.06

    2.37

    6.19

    2.38

    6.18

    2.42

    6.36

    2.44

    6.42

    2.48

    6.67

    2.49

    6.67

    2.54

    6.89

    2.63

    7.05

    2.65

    7.08

    2.67

    7.19

    2.67

    7.29

    2.68

    7.36

    2.68

    7.36

    2.7

    7.47

    2.7

    7.58

    2.7

    7.52

    2.71

    7.6

    2.72

    7.58

    2.72

    7.63

    2.77

    7.81

    2.82

    7.76

    2.83

    7.54

    2.86

    7.41

    2.87

    7.33

    2.87

    7.34

    2.84

    7.2

    2.83

    7.39

    2.83

    7.36

    2.85

    7.56

    2.85

    7.58

    2.85

    7.56

    2.88

    7.67

    2.89

    7.81

    2.88

    7.83

    2.87

    7.8

    2.87

    7.73

    2.88

    7.85

    2.88

    7.84

    2.88

    7.76

    2.89

    7.8

    2.89

    7.77

    2.91

    7.83

    2.95

    7.83

    2.96

    7.88

    3

    7.94

    3.01

    8

    3.02

    8.01

    3.02

    7.96

    3.03

    8.03

    3.03

    8.02

    3.04

    8.04

    3.05

    7.98

    3.04

    7.94

    3.04

    7.94

    3.07

    8.03

    3.08

    8.11

    3.09

    8.18

    3.12

    8.18

    3.08

    8.08

    3.12

    8.16

    3.16

    8.18

    3.23

    8.23

    3.27

    8.15

    3.7

    8.7

    3.53

    9.55

    3.88

    9.33

    4.03

    9.51

    3.85

    8.82

    3.69

    8.79

    3.75

    9.01

    3.79

    9.26

    3.9

    9.46

    4.17

    9.78

    4.26

    10.19

    4.41

    10.2

    4.49

    10.35

    4.59

    11.04

    4.6

    11.22

    4.74

    11.99

    4.81

    12.18

    4.98

    12.38

    5.06

    12.77

    5.24

    13.95

    5.24

    13.95

    5.12

    13.21

    5.36

    13.76

    5.44

    14.23

    5.6

    14.46

    5.63

    14.34

    5.61

    14.43

    5.6

    14.58

    5.61

    14.8

    5.7

    15.06

    5.71

    15.17

    5.67

    15.05

    5.69

    14.79

    5.66

    14.59

    5.75

    14.79

    5.8

    14.93

    5.77

    14.86

    5.61

    14.79

    5.6

    14.92

    5.59

    15.03

    5.46

    15.1

    5.46

    15.1

    5.5

    15.52

    5.52

    15.69

    5.58

    15.91

    5.62

    16.14

    5.68

    16.61

    5.75

    17.24

    5.91

    18.03

    6.04

    18.39

    5.99

    18.29

    6.02

    18.4

    6.05

    18.36

    6.05

    18.36

    6.07

    18.33

    6.13

    18.63

    6.14

    18.58

    6.18

    18.78

    6.16

    19.03

    6.13

    19.17

    6.12

    19.07

    6.09

    19.02

    6.05

    19.07

    6.09

    19.34

    6.1

    19.64

    6.07

    19.63

    6.08

    19.71

    5.97

    19.53

    5.89

    19.26

    5.82

    18.99

    5.75

    18.75

    5.73

    18.4

    5.69

    18.29

    5.69

    18.29

    5.69

    18.03

    5.67

    17.75

    5.6

    17.01

    5.55

    16.62

    5.55

    16.62

    5.55

    16.41

    5.52

    16

    5.39

    15.31

    5.23

    15.05

    5.2

    15.35

    5.21

    15.3

    5.18

    15.3

    5.21

    15.4

    5.18

    15.53

    5.16

    15.58

    5.15

    15.4

    5.15

    15.4

    5.13

    15.46

    5.1

    15.29

    5.11

    15.26

    5.1

    15.27

    5.05

    15.25

    5

    15.26

    4.9

    14.91

    4.85

    14.7

    4.81

    14.76

    4.83

    14.81

    4.82

    14.7

    4.85

    14.54

    4.85

    14.45

    4.84

    14.37

    4.78

    14.28

    4.74

    14.33

    4.72

    14.39

    4.73

    14.51

    4.71

    14.45

    4.71

    14.45

    4.72

    14.68

    4.83

    14.78

    4.85

    14.76

    4.93

    14.98

    4.98

    15.02

    5.02

    15.35

    5.03

    15.27

    5.04

    15.27

    5.05

    15.44

    5.11

    15.81

    5.15

    16.1

    5.24

    16.21

    5.3

    16.53

    5.33

    16.62

    5.42

    16.84

    5.38

    16.68

    5.43

    16.42

    5.47

    16.35

    5.49

    16.12

    5.48

    15.83

    5.46

    15.76

    5.46

    16.14

    5.45

    15.91

    5.46

    15.89

    5.43

    15.7

    5.46

    15.63

    5.42

    15.44

    5.43

    15.29

    5.4

    15

    5.44

    15.16

    5.43

    15.14

    5.43

    15.17

    5.38

    14.83

    5.32

    14.55

    5.26

    14.56

    5.24

    14.57

    5.23

    14.51

    5.19

    14.34

    5.19

    14.34

    5.09

    14.28

    4.99

    13.99

    4.96

    13.9

    4.9

    13.53

    4.83

    13.1

    4.8

    13.21

    4.84

    13.31

    4.83

    13.17

    4.79

    13.14

    4.73

    12.92

    4.67

    13.02

    4.63

    12.94

    4.59

    12.65

    4.39

    12.19

    4.4

    12.08

    4.35

    11.93

    4.28

    11.81

    4.22

    11.65

    4.14

    11.24

    4.07

    11.12

    4.07

    11.27

    4.07

    11.32

    4.1

    11.52

    4.14

    11.64

    4.08

    11.6

    4.02

    11.64

    3.94

    11.51

    3.87

    11.29

    3.84

    11.15

    3.82

    10.99

    3.82

    10.99

    3.78

    10.94

    3.7

    10.75

    3.63

    10.62

    3.52

    10.67

    3.43

    10.32

    3.31

    9.98

    3.29

    9.94

    3.28

    9.81

    3.25

    9.41

    3.25

    9.32

    3.22

    9.32

    3.15

    9.18

    3.11

    9.18

    3.07

    9.17

    3.04

    9.22

    3.03

    9.28

    3.07

    9.49

    3.09

    9.48

    3.07

    9.49

    3.07

    9.44

    3.08

    9.56

    3.09

    9.51

    3.1

    9.59

    3.11

    9.62

    3.1

    9.57

    3.06

    9.45

    3.05

    9.4

    3.05

    9.44

    3.05

    9.44

    3.05

    9.53

    3.05

    9.53

    3.05

    9.74

    3.04

    9.64

    3.05

    9.8

    3.04

    9.8

    3.03

    9.69

    2.97

    9.48

    2.97

    9.5

    2.91

    9.36

    2.84

    9.31

    2.79

    9.26

    2.77

    9.1

    2.74

    8.84

    2.72

    8.75

    2


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