1 Social and Economic Aspects Social and Economic Aspects of Planning of Planning Phoenix, AZ Phoenix, AZ Introduction 1 Introduction 10/30/07 ver Course Course Objectives Objectives • Determine what questions to ask regarding social and economic aspects of each planning step • Determine how to (and who can) obtain and interpret necessary social and economic information • Ensure social and economic aspects are integrated into each step of the planning process 2 and used to make sound decisions • Determine opportunities for collaboration while conducting social and economic analyses
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Social and Economic Aspects Social and Economic Aspects of Planningof PlanningPhoenix, AZPhoenix, AZ
Introduction
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Introduction10/30/07 ver
Course Course ObjectivesObjectives• Determine what questions to ask regarding social
and economic aspects of each planning step
• Determine how to (and who can) obtain and interpret necessary social and economic information
• Ensure social and economic aspects are integrated into each step of the planning process
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g p p g pand used to make sound decisions
• Determine opportunities for collaboration while conducting social and economic analyses
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Social Science Activities in Land Use PlanningSocial Science Activities in Land Use PlanningPlanning Steps Social Science Activities
Steps 1 & 2: Identify and Develop Planning Criteria
•Identify publics and strategies to reach them•Identify social and economic issues•Identify social and economic planning criteria
Step 3: Inventory Data •Identify inventory method•Collect necessary social and economic (S/E) datay ( )
Step 4: Analyze Management Situation
•Conduct S/E assessment of continuing current management.•Document assessment methods appendix or technical report
Step 5: Formulate Alternatives
•Identify S/E opportunities and constraints to formulate alternatives
Step 6: Estimate Effects of Alternatives
•Identify analysis methods•Analyze S/E effects of alternatives
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Effects of Alternatives •Analyze S/E effects of alternatives•Document analysis methods in appendix/tech report•Assess mitigation opportunities
Step 7, 8: Identify Preferred Alternative and finalize Plan
•Identify potential S/E factors to help select the preferred alternative
Step 9:Monitor/evaluate •Track S/E indicators
A Tool Box ApproachA Tool Box Approach• A range of techniques can be used to
dd diff t l i iaddress different planning issues
• Not every technique will be used in every RMP
• What techniques are applicable and when
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to apply
• Not our purpose to teach how to do the techniques
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Scales of Social and Scales of Social and Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis
• Fine scale: individual/household level (required for grazing impacts; psychological impacts)
• Mid scale: community-level analyses
• Broad scale: county-level or regional
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• Broad scale: county-level or regional economic analyses
• National scale: passive use values of national or international publics
Why Conduct Social & Why Conduct Social & Economic Analyses?Economic Analyses?
• Legal/statutory/administrative mandatesNEPA C id ff t h i t– NEPA: Consider effects on human environment
– FLPMA: Consider relative values of resources– Environmental Justice (Exec. Order 12898)
• Public demand for meaningful social and economic analysesThere’s room for impro ement
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• There’s room for improvement…• Note as 10/30/07- someone still needs to
address: add one more slide –Utah State Review and other examples that demo why soc/econ analyses is in lime light
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Pinedale Experience Jonah Field Pinedale Experience Jonah Field Historical DevelopmentHistorical Development
Jonah Jonah -- 19941994
Jonah Jonah -- 20012001
Jonah Jonah -- 20052005
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Pinedale Oil & Gas BoomPinedale Oil & Gas Boom
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Socioeconomic Hit List:Socioeconomic Hit List:Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Boom Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Boom
• Economic Effects of Energy Industry Growth:– How The Rig Count drives
industrialization, workforce, and revenue.
– Workforce Shortages
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o o ce S o tages– Transient Workforces– Housing Costs– Gilmore’s “Problem Triangle”
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Hundreds of Different Worksites Hundreds of Hundreds of Different Worksites Hundreds of Different CompaniesDifferent Companies
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The Rig Count Drives Everything
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The Rig Count –About 40 Workers Per Rig
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Workforce Fluctuates Widely
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Socioeconomic Hit List:Socioeconomic Hit List:Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Boom Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Boom
• Economic Effects of Energy Industry Growth:– How The Rig Count drives
industrialization, workforce, and revenue.
– Workforce Shortages
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o o ce S o tages– Transient Workforces– Housing Costs & Population
Increases– Gilmore’s “Problem Triangle”
Good For Local Workers
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g gg , yTemporary
They Strain Local Services – But Don’t provide service industry workforce: Growth is one-sided. Food, entertainment, recreation
industries stagnate despite huge demand and iincomes
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Socioeconomic Hit List:Socioeconomic Hit List:Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Boom Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Boom
• Economic Effects of EnergyEconomic Effects of Energy Industry Growth:– How The Rig Count drives
industrialization, workforce, and revenue. Workforce Shortages
John S. Gilmore’s Problem John S. Gilmore’s Problem Triangle:Triangle:
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Socioeconomic Hit List:Socioeconomic Hit List:Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas
BoomBoom--Cont.Cont.
• Social Effects of Growth:– Moving from an amenity-led community to a o g o a a e ty ed co u ty to a
wage-earning community• Loss of community feeling• Social Issues with in-migrants• Crime• Education• Infrastructure• Work Schedules
W k l ti l
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• Worker relocation plans• Connections to the Study Area• Deaths & Injuries on the job• Per capita income• Family income• Local gov't and local low-paying businesses struggle
to compete with oilfield wages
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Socioeconomic Hit List:Socioeconomic Hit List:Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas
BoomBoom--Cont.Cont.
• Social Effects of Growth:– Moving from an amenity-led community to a o g o a a e ty ed co u ty to a
wage-earning community• Loss of community feeling• Social Issues with in-migrants• Crime• Education• Infrastructure• Work Schedules
W k l ti l
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• Worker relocation plans• Connections to the Study Area• Deaths & Injuries on the job• Per capita income• Family income• Local gov't and local low-paying businesses
struggle to compete with oilfield wages
Huge Impacts to a Small TownHuge Impacts to a Small Town
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Socioeconomic Hit List:Socioeconomic Hit List:Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas Impacts of the Sublette County, Wyoming Gas
Boom Boom -- Cont.Cont.• Distribution of Revenue
– Revenue stream • Royalties• Severance Taxes
– Local tax revenues• $14 Million (FY-06 in Sublette County)
– Use Taxes» Supplies purchased elsewhere
– Sales Taxes• Property Taxes (Driven by valuable gas properties)
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p y ( y g p p )– School District (Extra $ redistributed by the State)
• What’s Next:– Plans for new oil & gas development
• Need for providing the proposal using maps combined with industry presentations to inform the public on the development being proposed
– Pace of Development Discussions
Sustained Development Sustained Development Then Big Drop OffThen Big Drop Off
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The Bust The Bust -- Socioeconomic Impacts of O&G Busts: Socioeconomic Impacts of O&G Busts: What they are, and 'Are we learning anything?'What they are, and 'Are we learning anything?'
• Planning for the pattern of Boom/Bust– Drilling (and assoc expanded workforce)
• Anticipated to last for 12 years, requiringAnticipated to last for 12 years, requiring housing and medical, retail etc. services for same 12 years, then move on
– The more imminent bust is in 12 years, and can be quantified by:
» The amount ‘overbuilt’ which will depress other real estate for 10 years (a boon to outsiders wanting to move in, a bane to locals)
» Drop in local economy volume (motel rooms, t t )
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restaurants)• Overbuilding concern
– Gas production and associated royalties• Related revenue to Fed, State, County & School
Dist– Anticipated to last for 40 years– Local economy fueled by public sector $– Expected to drop off over the last 10 year period
The Bust The Bust -- Socioeconomic Impacts of O&G Busts: Socioeconomic Impacts of O&G Busts: What they are, and 'Are we learning anything?'What they are, and 'Are we learning anything?'
• Planning for the pattern of Boom/Bust– Drilling (and assoc expanded workforce)
• Anticipated to last for 12 years requiring housing• Anticipated to last for 12 years, requiring housing and medical, retail etc. services for same 12 years, then move on
– The more imminent bust is in 12 years, and can be quantified by:
» The amount ‘overbuilt’ which will depress other real estate for 10 years (a boon to outsiders wanting to move in, a bane to locals)
» Drop in local economy volume (motel rooms
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» Drop in local economy volume (motel rooms, restaurants)
– Gas production and associated royalties• Related revenue to Fed, State, County & School
Dist– Anticipated to last for 40 years– Local economy fueled by public sector $– Expected to drop off over the last 10 year period
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Accurate Social Impact Assessment TipsAccurate Social Impact Assessment Tips --Lessons Learned in Sublette CountyLessons Learned in Sublette County
– Get involved with the locals if at all possible– Don't rely on outdated census data
• Obtain current local data & information by meeting withy g– Sheriff's Department– Health Care personnel– District Attorney– Company spokesmen– Mayor– County Commissioners– local leaders– Other Federal, State and Local agencies– Planners– School Boards– Realtors– Etc.
F k i t
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– Focus on key impacts• Substance use• Crime• Social Services• Domestic Violence• Housing• Job safety
– deaths and serious work related injuries occurring on the job• Etc.
– Second home sales and changes in nonearned income
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Accurate Social Impact Assessment TipsAccurate Social Impact Assessment Tips --Lessons Learned in Sublette CountyLessons Learned in Sublette County
– Get involved with the locals if at all possible– Don't rely on outdated census data
• Obtain current local data & information by meeting withy g– Sheriff's Department– Health Care personnel– District Attorney– Company spokesmen– Mayor– County Commissioners– local leaders– Other Federal, State and Local agencies– Planners– School Boards– Realtors– Etc.
F k i t
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– Focus on key impacts• Substance use• Crime• Social Services• Domestic Violence• Housing• Job safety
– deaths and serious work related injuries occurring on the job• Etc.
– Second home sales and changes in nonearned income
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Accurate Social Impact Assessment TipsAccurate Social Impact Assessment Tips --Lessons Learned in Sublette County Lessons Learned in Sublette County -- Cont.Cont.
• Express offsite mitigation proposals in terms of dollars per well to put these dollars in a perspective that the public can relate to
• Express the development costs in a payoff per well so the public gets a clearer understanding of the financialpublic gets a clearer understanding of the financial considerations involved in, for example, the development of a major oil & gas field
• Include a discussion of the life cycle of the field• Compute the taxes and other revenues that will be generated
and try to balance this against the resultant new demand for services
• Quantify the market activity (earnings and employment) –input output analysis
• Include use values – travel cost analysis
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y• Do not ignore the non-market affects of a major oil and gas field (
this may be only a qualitative discussion in the absence of a non-market study but it still needs to be addressed)
• Make sure the Reasonable and Foreseeable Development Scenario “makes sense”
• Use a common basis of comparison to describe the national importance of the fields anticipated production
– % of national demand• Include a discussion of the affects of a "boom bust" scenario
Accurate Social Impact Assessment TipsAccurate Social Impact Assessment Tips --Lessons Learned in Sublette County Lessons Learned in Sublette County -- Cont.Cont.
• Express offsite mitigation proposals in terms of dollars per well to put these dollars in a perspective that the public can relate to
• Express the development costs in a payoff per well so the public gets a clearer understanding of the financial considerationsgets a clearer understanding of the financial considerations involved in, for example, the development of a major oil & gas field
• Include a discussion of the life cycle of the field• Compute the taxes and other revenues that will be generated and
try to balance this against the resultant new demand for services• Quantify the market activity (earnings and employment) – input
output analysis• Include use values – travel cost analysis • Do not ignore the non-market affects of a major oil and gas
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g j gfield ( this may be only a qualitative discussion in the absence of a non-market study but it still needs to be addressed)
• Make sure the Reasonable and Foreseeable Development Scenario “makes sense”
• Use a common basis of comparison to describe the national importance of the fields anticipated production
– % of national demand• Include a discussion of the affects of a "boom bust" scenario
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Accurate Social Impact Assessment TipsAccurate Social Impact Assessment Tips --Lessons Learned in Sublette County Lessons Learned in Sublette County -- Cont.Cont.
• Get a feel for the trade-offs– Air quality changes– Water quality changesq y g– Transportation issues– Open space issues– Changes in recreational opportunities– Impacts on grazing – Difficulty in acquiring service employees– Impacts on critical wildlife habitat– Impacts on wildlife populations
Impacts on threatened and/or endangered species
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– Impacts on threatened and/or endangered species– Etc.
• Present per capita income and family income (constant dollars using a locally derived cost of living index)
• Be aware of the challenges associated with contracted socioeconomic input under tight schedules
Accurate Social Impact Assessment TipsAccurate Social Impact Assessment Tips --Lessons Learned in Sublette County Lessons Learned in Sublette County -- Cont.Cont.
– Data SourcesState government data bases• State government data bases
• BLM Specialists• Clipping Services like the Headwaters News• High County News• Industry publications• Local newspapers
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Local newspapers• Local Universities• Sublette Socioeconomics: www.sublette-se.org• Etc.
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Why It's Hard to GetWhy It's Hard to Get Mitigation: Politics and Mitigation: Politics and PowerPower
• Direction of Revenue – Why Local Government $$$ alone cannot always mitigate
• Local Governments• Non-Profits/Community Organizations
– Relationship with Federal Agencies – Governmental Costs of Growth
• The Role of Federal Agencies in Federal Land Actions– Offsite Mitigation – BLM’s legal descriptions of what qualifies – The “Adaptive Management” Process
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– Other Federal Examples of Socioeconomic Mitigation • The Role of Companies
Questar controls approximately 105,000 net acres within the proposed Hiawatha Regional EIS.
EIS Area in relation to proposed Citizen’s Wilderness
Kinney Rim South proposed CWA
Kinney Rim North proposed CWADry Hole
Gas Well
Oil & Gas wellOil Well
WYOMING
COLORADO
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Vermillion Proposed CWA
Note: Both Kinney Rim N & S proposed citizen’s wilderness were denied wilderness designation in 2002and are in areas with prior existing roads and wells.
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Jonah Field
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Google Image
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Economic ConceptsEconomic Concepts
• Economic value
• Jobs and income vs. benefits and costs
• Economic impact analysis
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Economic ValueEconomic Value• A Resource has economic value if:
– Scarce
– Provides enjoyment and satisfaction
• No actual payment is required
– Hence economic value broader than price cash
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Hence economic value broader than price, cash flow, revenues, taxes, etc.
• Economic value measured by the maximum a user would pay if payment is required (willingness to pay-WTP)
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Social ConceptsSocial Concepts“Social” refers to the meaning of BLM-managed lands, resources and opportunities to people.It overlaps with economics but is distinct in many ways…
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CommunityCommunity• Territory (place, local
ecology) where people live and meet their daily needs together
• Local society: comprehensive network of associations for meeting common needs and
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common needs and expressing common interests
• Community field: process of collective actions for improving common life
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Quality of LifeQuality of Life• Culture-specific norms of
desired individual anddesired individual and social experience
• Often measured using a set of indicators, including economic variables
• How do you define it? What
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• How do you define it? What portion of it relates to public land management?
Sense of PlaceSense of Place• The attachment
people feel to apeople feel to a setting , typically through repeated experience
• Attachments can be
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Attachments can be spiritual, cultural, aesthetic, economic, recreational, social
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EquityEquity• People and communities are affected in
different ways by management of public landsdifferent ways by management of public lands
• There will typically be winners and losers, over the short term and long term
• Equity--and perceptions of the fairness of the planning process and the distribution of
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planning process and the distribution of effects--is an important social consideration
• Environmental justice is an equity issue
Environmental JusticeEnvironmental JusticeThe fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation and
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implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and policies.
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Key PointsKey Points• Social and
economic variables should be
• Like biophysical variables, social and economic
incorporated into every planning step
• The social and economic sciences
and economic variables can be measured at a variety of scales
• Consider social and economics
Socioeconomics
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have their own language and frameworks for studying people and the environment
and economics information and analyses as separate (but related) topics
