Date post: | 28-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | emil-cameron |
View: | 215 times |
Download: | 0 times |
2
Will water be the oil of 21st century?
Will the water shape this new century, as oil did the last one?
Lester Brown, How Water Scarcity Will Shape the New Century Earth Policy
Institute
3
Salt Water
98%
Fresh Water
2%
Some data
Worldwide distribution: 98% salt water 2% fresh water
Surface waters (lake and rivers) are just 0.01% of the total freshwaters
Groundwater
12%
RIvers & Lakes
0.01%
Ice
87%
4
Some data
Every year 7 milion people die from water-related deseases.
While the world's population tripled in the last century, water consumption has grown six-fold.
1900 2000
Population
Consumption
5
Some data
Predictions forecasted that 50% of the world population will be affected by water scarcity by 2025.
30% of the world population faces water crisis today
Water consumption in developed countries is more the double than in developing ones.
AmericaNEurope
Ex URSSAsia
AmericaSAfrica
2004 2025
Satisfied
Thirsty
6
Water demand
accounts for 70% of water use
Competition among agriculture and the other economic sectors
Rivers run dry before reaching the sea
• Yellow River • Nile• Gange• Colorado …..
Irrigation
Agriculture
70%
Industrial
22%
Domestic
8%
9
An example of competition and its effectsthe shrinking of Aral Sea
Since 1957 Aral Sea has lost three quarter of its volume (from 1075 to 54 km3).
The old harbour town
of Muinak (•) today
lies 87 Km from the
shoreline
11
An example of competition and its effectsthe Aral Sea
Since 1957 Aral Sea has lost three quarter of its volume (from 1075 to 54 km3).
The old harbour town
of Muinak (•) today
lies 87 Km from the
shoreline
13
Not only inter-sectoral competition: trans-national river
basins
Trans-national river basin collect 60% of the world freshwater.
15
Water wars
Cooperation among States is required in trans-national river basins.
Without cooperation, competition for water may lead to frictions and raised political tensions that may result in violent disputes.
Since 1950 approximately 25% of disputes have been over water and 37 times degenerated into military actions.
20
What can we do? ....
Improve the quality and quantity of water for human and environmental uses without creating conflicts.
The water volume is constant.New water can not be “produced” in significant volumes and at acceptable costs (annual runoff 34×1012 m3).
Neither it can be further withdrawn.
21
Large dams
Allow re-allocating water resources in time and space
Nowadays, 54% of freshwater is withdrawn, further withdrawals are not possible.
More than 38.000 in 1994 catching nearly16% of the total runoff.
23
What can we do ? ....
Improving the management of water resource available; re-allocating water between neighbouring regions and/or economic sectors.
How?
1) Rationalizing consumptions (acting on demand).
2) Making the management more efficient (acting on supply).
24
What can we do? ..... Integration
A new paradigm (IWRM, IRBM) must be developed for taking decisions that take into account all the issues and the stakeholders in an integrated way...
1) Multiple Users.2) Inflow Uncertainty.3) Complexity of the Uses.
integration
Physical issues: hydrological, climatological, ecological,…
Non-physical issues: technical, sociological, economical, administrative, legal
The 3 “U”
Management must consider the whole river basin
Management must consider the whole river basin
25
All the stakeholder points of view should taken into consideration.Stakeholders should be involved in decision making.
A new paradigm (IWRM, IRBM) must be developed for taking decisions that take into account all the issues and the stakeholders in an integrated way .... and these should be
taken in a participatory way.
Decisions should be negotiated among the stakeholders
What can we do? ..... Participation
26
Layout of the course
How should the course be interpreted?
How is it organized? • Lectures (AC) [48 hours] • Real Case Studies (you and AC) [12 hours]• Computer-based tutorials (SG) [40 hours]
Couse schedulehttp://home.dei.polimi.it/castelle/teaching.html
27
Course material
TEXTBOOKS
theory R.Soncini Sessa, A. Castelletti, E.Weber, Integrated and
Particpatory Water Resources Management. Theory. 2007. Elsevier
practice R.Soncini Sessa, F. Cellina, F. Pianosi, E.Weber, Integrated
and Particpatory Water Resources Management. Practice. 2007.
Elsevier
http://home.dei.polimi.it/castelle/teaching.htmlWEB SITE
These pages will house lecture notes, slides, code, URLs, etc., as they become available.
29
Further Readings
Brown, L., How water scarcity will shape the new century. Water Science and Technology 43 (4), 17–22, 2001 http://www.earth-policy.org/Transcripts/Transcript1.htm
Wolf, A., Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Water Systems, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2002.
P. McCully, Silenced Rivers, Zed Books, 2001