Presenter
Smrita Acharya
Central Department of Environmental Science
Tribhuvan University, Nepal
Graduate Course-Surface water and Ground water interaction, 2016
v Introduction
v Materials and Methods
v Results and Discussion
v Conclusion
v Acknowledgements
2 18 Nov 2016
v Changing precipitation or melting of snow and ice altering hydrological systems (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014)
v As glaciers shrink their relative contribution decreases (Huss, 2010)
v Hydrological models; framework to investigate relationship of climatic variables (Maurer et al., 2009)
v Temperature index melt model, widely used in data scare Himalayan region
v Knowledge gap about relevance of snow and glacier melt in Asian river hydrology (Immerzeel, 2010)
v Efficient management of water resource; wise decision making
3 18 Nov 2016
• Modi River basin : Kaski district-Gandaki zone
• Modi River originates from Annapurna massif, the main tributary of the Kaligandaki River of Gandaki basin
• Catchment area: 643.2 km2
• Elevation range: 748 m to 8000 m
• Glaciers: 12 % (77.5 km2)
• Rock and vegetation: 88 % (565.6 km2)
• Diverse climate with highest precipitation at Lumle agro-meteorological station
4 18 Nov 2016
• Modi River basin : Kaski district-Gandaki zone
• Modi River originates from Annapurna massif, the main tributary of the Kaligandaki River of Gandaki basin
• Catchment area: 643.2 km2
• Elevation range: 748 m to 8000 m
• Glaciers: 12 % (77.5 km2)
• Rock and vegetation: 88 % (565.6 km2)
• Diverse climate with highest precipitation at Lumle agro-meteorological station
Location map of Modi River basin, Kaski, Nepal.
5 18 Nov 2016
Data collection Data source Data analysis
Daily temperature and precipitation
• (1980-2013) Lumle AMS (1740 m)
• (1991-2010) Kushma MS (891 m)
• (1991-2010) SDSM data of Machhapuchhre
MS (3470 m)
• DHM (GoN)
• DHM (GoN)
• Adhikari and
Devkota, 2015)
• Mann-
Kendall test
(Mann,
1945;
Kendall,
1975)
• Bias-
corrected
Weiland et
al. (2010)
Daily discharge
• (1988-2013) Nayapul HS (748 m)
• DHM (GoN)
RCM-WRF (2016-2050) daily temperature and
precipitation for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission
scenarios
• BCCR, University
of Bergen,
Norway
ASTER DEM (2011), Landsat 4, 5 Thematic
mapper images (Oct, 2010)
Glacier outlines (2010)
• USGS earth
explorer
• ICIMOD
• ArC GIS 10.1
6 18 Nov 2016
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
900
1700
2500
3300
4100
4900
5700
6500
7300
Area (km2)
Ele
va
tion
(m
)
Rock and vegetation
Clean glacier
Debris covered glacier
0.55 %
11.50 %
87.95 %
Hypsograph of the Modi River basin
7 18 Nov 2016
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Flow chart of MPDDM
approach
MPDDM
8 18 Nov 2016
y = 0.034x + 15.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
17.00
17.50
18.00
18.50
1980 1990 2000 2010
Air
tem
per
atu
re (°C
)
16.11 °C
15.06 °C
y = 7.93x + 5343.5
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Pre
cip
itati
on
(m
m)
5486.21 mm
4162.4 mm
17.13 °C
6575 mm
Observed temperature and precipitation at base station (Lumle)
9 18 Nov 2016
y = 0.02x + 52.31
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
71.27 m3s-1
52.52 m3s-1
40.05 m3s-1
Observed discharge at base station (Lumle)
10 18 Nov 2016
v Satisfactory model performance
v Relatively higher volume difference in validation year due to over estimation of simulated discharge
v Better and consistent simulated flows during low flow period than high flows (Nepal et al., 2014)
v SRM, HBV model; underestimation of some observed high flows (Bhattari et al., 2015; Khadka et al, 2015)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
Observed
discharge
Simulated
discharge
NSE = 0.75
VD = 1.23 %
R2 = 0.77
Calibration year (1991-2000)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
Observed
discharge
Simulated
discharge
NSE = 0.76
VD = -9.43 %
R2 = 0.79
Validation year (2001-2013)
11 18 Nov 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
Snow and ice
melt
Rain and
baseflow
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
Snow and ice
melt
Rain and
baseflow
Calibration year (1991-2000) Validation year (2001-2013)
5.29 % 5.71 %
94.71 % 94.29 %
12 18 Nov 2016
y = -0.049x + 153.39
35
45
55
65
75
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
67.82 m3s-1
y = -0.005x + 64.363
35
45
55
65
75
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
RCP8.5
54.80 m3s-1
RCP4.5
40.40 m3s-1
43.72 m3s-1
66.70 m3s-1
54.86 m3s-1
13 18 Nov 2016
v Snow melt contribution higher in 2016-2020: similar to study in Langtang river basin (Pradhananga et al., 2015)
v Under both scenarios during 2031-2040 earlier shifting of monsoonal peaks in months of May, June and July due to higher melting
v Snow melt contribution not much significant in future period in Tamakoshi River basin (Khadka et al, 2014)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
RCP4.5
1991-2013
2016-2020
2021-2030
2031-2040
2041-2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Dis
cha
rge
(m3s-1
)
RCP8.5
1991-2013
2016-2020
2021-2030
2031-2040
2041-2050
14 18 Nov 2016
v Temperature index melt model a good hydrological model
v Model applicable in data scare Himalayan region
v Modeling approach aids in impact studies
v Emission scenarios; future water availability
v Real scenario -groundtruthing??
15 18 Nov 2016
v Assoc. Prof. Dr. Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Supervisor, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering School of Science, HiCCDRC, Kathmandu University
v Prof. Dr. Kedar Rijal, Head of Department, CDES, TU
v Kathmandu Centre for Research and Education, CAS and TU-IOST
v Ms. Ahuti Shrestha, Mr. Mohan Chand (HICCDRC, KU)
v Tirtha Adhikari, Lochan Prasad Devkota (CDHM, TU)
v Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), GoN
v HICCDRC, KU and ICIMOD
v Bjerkens Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), University of Bergen, Norway
v CDES friends and family
16 18 Nov 2016
17 18 Nov 2016 18 18 Nov 2016
19 18 Nov 2016
