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Introduction Introduction toto Africa Africa
Wolfram LatschWolfram LatschHenry M. Jackson School of International Studies
University of Washington
EARC Workshop | China-Africa Relations | 14 May 2011
Where is Africa?
Africa Precolonial Polities
Africa Africa Precolonial Polities Precolonial Polities c.1880c.1880
Africa Partition at Berlin 1885
Africa After Independence 1958-91
Africa’s Performance since Independence
Snapshot: Development Disparities
Africa after Independence: Three Different Periods of Economic Growth
Africa after Independence: Three Different Periods of Economic Growth
Africa after Independence: Three Different Periods of Economic Growth
Africa’s Africa’s Four Anti-Growth SyndromesFour Anti-Growth Syndromes
1.1. Aggressive control and regulatory Aggressive control and regulatory policies distort the economy and policies distort the economy and create poor environment for create poor environment for markets and business markets and business
(exchange rates, inflation, tariffs, (exchange rates, inflation, tariffs, corruption)corruption)
World Bank. Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa. 2008.
Africa’s Africa’s Anti-Growth SyndromesAnti-Growth Syndromes
2. 2. Ethnic and regional redistribution Ethnic and regional redistribution polarizes politics and economics, polarizes politics and economics, raises the stakes of politics, raises the stakes of politics, increases the likelihood that increases the likelihood that groups will fight for control of the groups will fight for control of the state.state.
World Bank Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa. 2008.
Africa’s Africa’s Anti-Growth SyndromesAnti-Growth Syndromes
3. Sacrificing the income of future generations by unsustainable borrowing and spending(trade deficits, debt)
World Bank Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa. 2008.
Africa’s Africa’s Anti-Growth SyndromesAnti-Growth Syndromes
4.4. State and government fragility and State and government fragility and breakdown during conflict breakdown during conflict
(breakdown in the delivery of public (breakdown in the delivery of public goods like law + order, defense, goods like law + order, defense, infrastructure etc.)infrastructure etc.)
World Bank Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa. 2008.
Polity IV. Global Report 2009.
Polity IV. Global Report 2009.
Steven Radelet. Emerging Africa. 2010.
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Ethiopia
Ghana
Lesotho
Mali
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Rwanda
Sao Tome & Principe
Seychelles
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Ethiopia
Ghana
Lesotho
Mali
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Rwanda
Sao Tome & Principe
Seychelles
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Steven Radelet. Emerging Africa. 2010.
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Ethiopia
Ghana
Lesotho
Mali
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Rwanda
Sao Tome & Principe
Seychelles
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Ethiopia
Ghana
Lesotho
Mali
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Rwanda
Sao Tome & Principe
Seychelles
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
1996-20081996-2008
Average Income Growth per capita
3.2%3.2%
Cumulative Increase in Average Real Income
50%50%
Emerging Africa:Emerging Africa:Five Fundamental ChangesFive Fundamental Changes
1. Rise of more democratic and accountable governments | 3 in 1989 → 23 in 2008
2. More sensible and sustainable economic policies | reduction in anti-growth syndromes
3. End of the debt crisis after ~ 25 years | greater country ownership of reforms
4. New technologies | cell phones in markets and politics
5. New generations | policymakers, activists, business leaders
Steven Radelet. Emerging Africa. 2010.
Emerging Africa:Emerging Africa:Other ChangesOther Changes
1. Agricultural production is rising
2. Investment is increasing
3. Productivity and income are growing
4. Africa is more connected to international trade
5. Growth not based on commodity prices alone
6. Infant mortality is declining
7. Population growth rates have begun to decline
8. Political rights and liberties more respected
9. Reduction in political conflict
Challenges and Opportunities
Diffusion of ICT
The Economist. 6 January 2011.
The New York Times. 3 May 2011.
Foreign Policy July/August 2010
The Economist. 17 March 2011.
= Sub-Saharan African country
Polity IV. Global Report 2009.
Economist Intelligence Unit. Manning the Barricades. March 2009.
20092009
World Bank. Doing Business. rru.worldbank.org/businessplanet
Ease of Doing Business | 2009Ease of Doing Business | 2009
World Economic Forum. Global Competitiveness Report. 2010.
Competitiveness | 2009
The Economist. 29 January 2009.
China and AfricaChina and Africa
The Economist. 20 April 2011.
Asia-Pacific Journal. 2009.
