INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

APRIL TAYLORTRIBAL LIAISON

SOUTH CENTRAL CLIMATE ADAPTATION SCIENCE CENTER

What do you think of as vulnerable to climate

change?

What do you feel is already threatened/disrupted by

climate change?

Vulnerability

At this point we’ve covered climate science, and some projected changes

That is, we’ve been thinking and talking about the science and some impacts

Vulnerability takes us from the thinking about science to thinking about key items we’re concerned about.

• What affects those items? (Hazards or Stressors)• What are the impacts and consequences? • What are the related actions and choices?

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Vulnerability is about the key items of concern

Cultural Resources

Ecosystems Infrastructure Species

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1. ”an aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations” (Bohle et al. 1994)

2. “…the exposure to contingencies and stress, and difficulty in coping with them. (Chambers 1989)

3. ”Vulnerability: the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. (IPCC 2001)

Definitions of Vulnerability

Vulnerability Assessments examine many factors

VulnerabilityAssessment

Climate Stressors (Hazards): Current

and Future

Sensitivity + Adaptive Capacity

Temperature

Precipitation

Extreme Events

Socioeconomic Factors

Enhanced Environmental Exposure

Ability to Respond

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• The degree of climate stress upon a particular unit of analysis

• Climate stress: • long-term climate conditions• climate variability• magnitude and frequency of

extreme events

Exposure

Sensitivity

What climate related hazards you are exposed to depends on where you are.

SensitivityHow big is

the impact of the hazards?

For example, with precipitation variability and semi-arid areas, Oklahoma is exposed to drought.

Sensitivity: the degree to which a given community or ecosystem is affected by climate stresses.

In Oklahoma increased heat during already hot summers might have significant impacts. That could include

Crop damageStress on water resourcesDangers to public health (increases in heat stress / heat stroke)

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Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive capacity or resilience coping is the ability to withstand negative impacts from a hazard and adapt to a given climate impact.

Adaptive Capacity

Is it possible to cope or

adapt?

Coping actions are things people do to protect themselves from harm, like getting help from friends or neighbors.

Examples:- mutual aid agreements - conservation- reliable water resources - insurance- knowledge of developing risks (like drought or severe weather monitoring)

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• Vulnerability analysis as a means of identifying what to do about climate change.

• Vulnerability is shaped by adaptive capacity.

• Vulnerability determines adaptability

• Vulnerability is the starting point of the analysis.

Interpretation 2• Vulnerability analysis as

a means of defining the extent of the climate problem

• Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptations

• Adaptability defines vulnerability

Interpretation I

Interpretations

Some things are less vulnerable than othersSensitivity Level Adaptive Capacity

S0

S1

S2

S3

S4

AC0

AC1

AC2

AC3

AC4

System not affected

System minimally affected

System somewhat affected

System largely affected

System greatly affected

System cannot adjust

System minimally able to adjust

System somewhat able to adjust

System mostly able to adjust

System able to adjust beneficially

Vuln

erab

ility

Lev

elVulnerability Level

High

HighLow

Low

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Navajo Vulnerability Assessment Report

http://conbio.org/images/content_publications/Final_Navajo_Vulnerability_Assessment_Report_2.pdf

More Vulnerable

Less Vulnerable

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“…oyster reefs with marginal water quality could be targeted for habitat restoration to promote future population growth or recruitment in extreme years

when isohalines have moved up or down estuary.” – Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment 2015, p.80, Adapted from Stein et al. 2014, emphasis added

Vulnerability Assessments Include Planning

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Blue Crab

Clapper Rail

Tidal Emergent

Marsh

Gulf Coast Vulnerability

Assessment 2015

(NOTE: BE SURE TO COMPARE/CONTRAST TO VLN) Hazard Management

Hazards (threats to people and what they value) emerge from causally linked series of events, choices, and consequences – a causal chain.

Whatever the hazard, its impacts and consequences are dependent on societal and individual choices and actions.

Many hazards are not weather or climate related such as earthquakes and terrorism.

Example: Development along the wildland urban interface- Might increase risk, wildfire danger- Direct effect: losses and damages from wildfire- Indirect effect: runoff/erosion or poor water quality

after a fire

What other considerations are involved in this example?15

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Types of losses

Vulnerability is about the key items of concern

Cultural Resources

Ecosystems Infrastructure Species

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1ST STEP- IDENTIFY KEY ITEMS OF CONCERNWhat are the aspects/ assets/ resources of your tribe that may be vulnerable to climate related exposures?

• Land Resources

• Economic Development

• Transportation

• Air Quality

• Energy Systems

• Water Supply or water quality

• Traditional Foods

• Culturally Significant Species

• Public Health

• Social Services

• Agriculture/ Native Farmers

• Tourism

• Youth

• Elders

• ETC.

ACTIVITY: DISCUSS KEY ITEMS OF CONCERN IN YOUR COMMUNITY

(15 MIN)

GATHERING VULNERABILITY INFORMATION• Who to contact in your community that has the relevant information?

• What types of information would be useful to determine vulnerability or adaptive capacity?

• Why is it vulnerable/ root causes? (i.e. Band aid the problem vs. solving the problem)

• Example:

• Do you know who has the health data or access for heat related illnesses and heat strokes or deaths?

• How hot or how many hot days does the heat health become a concern?

• Why are people with diabetes more stressed by health? Are there other health conditions that would make them more vulnerable?

• Does your community respond and are they able to respond?

GATHERING VULNERABILITY INFORMATION• Example:

• Who has the data for native farmers in our jurisdiction? What do they grow or raise?

• Are native farmers able to adapt to more intense and reoccurring droughts?

• Why are they not able to adapt? Economic?

• How bad is the economic impact of a drought?

• What would be needed to adapt over time? Irrigation equipment; new equipment and knowledge to grow a different crop?

• Does your tribe assist native farmers respond currently? Are there things they could assist with?

• Would the tribe go after Farm bill funding or other programs?

GATHERING VULNERABILITY INFORMATION

• How to approach gathering the information?

• Meetings?

• Literature?

• Surveys or film interviews?

• Process to gather the information?

ACTIVITY: DISCUSS GATHERING VULNERABILITY INFORMATION

GAP ASSESSMENT:WHAT IS MISSING? OR WE DON’T KNOW?

COULD WE START MONITORING AND ACQUIRING THIS INFORMATION?

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTSGUIDEBOOKS AND FRAMEWORKS

ITEP- Toolkit and the Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments

• The purpose of the guide is to help decision-makers in a local, regional, or state government prepare for climate change by recommending a detailed process for climate change preparedness based on familiar resources and tools.

• ITEP Toolkit: http://www7.nau.edu/itep/main/tcc/Resources/adaptation

• (Note-ITEP program is now developing sector based curriculum. Tribes now join a facilitated cohort for a minimum of 1.5 years.)

Species Guidebook

Scanning the Conservation Horizon is a vulnerability assessment guide focusing on ecological impacts and resource management.

The document covers vulnerability basics and features case study examples from around the US.

Online pdf:www.nwf.org/vulnerabilityguide

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CLIMATE SMART FRAMEWORK• Integrate climate change adaptation into other

plans or types of projects

• Not look at the past or previous conditions but to ensure they persist for decades to come. Thus manage for change.

• Minimize loss

• Avoid maladaptation

• Consider GHGs of the adaptation strategies/ minimize the carbon footprints of our actions

• Climate smart monitoring plans

TRIBAL ADAPTATION GUIDEBOOK• Useful for tribes at any stage of adaptation

planning, from initiation to implementation, and with varying degrees of funding and staff capacity. (i.e. skip parts)

• Considers the unique issues facing Indigenous communities, and identifies opportunities and guidance for incorporating Traditional Knowledges

• Download at http://www.occri.net/projects/tribal-climate-adaptation-guidebook/

EXAMPLES OF TRIBAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

• Kaw Nation

• Otoe Missouria Nation

• Wichita and Affiliated Tribes

• Fort Sill Apache

• Citizen Potawatomi Nation

OU-BIA VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

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• Approach for each determined by the tribe.• Each tribe has a steering

committee to guide the individual project.• Topics–Water (drought, flooding, water

quality)–GIS–Visioning and collaboration

• Cultural Resources

• Emergency Management

• Flood Management

• Wildfire Management

• Economic Development

• Tribal Services

• Water Resources

• Food Security

CITIZEN POTAWATOMI NATION VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

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Vulnerability Assessment ExamplesExtensive information on how tribes in the Pacific Northwest are addressing climate change can be found through the Tribal Climate Change Project.

Notable examples include work by the Jamestown S’Klallam and Swinomish Tribes.

Online:http://tribalclimate.uoregon.edu

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Vulnerability Assessment ExamplesThe Jamestown S’Klallam plan resulted from a two day workshop the tribe completed where they identified the most important climate impacts to the community, such as:- Increasing temperatures and changing precipitation - Sea level rise and coastal flooding

Also identified were key areas of concern important to the tribe, such as:- Salmon- Clams and Oysters- Wildfires

Online:http://tribalclimate.uoregon.edu/files/2010/11/Jamestown_Sklallam_Adaptation_Plan_Profile_FINAL-1qqgd7e.pdf

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The Swinomish Climate Change Initiative was initially a two year study on the impacts of climate change on tribe resources, assets and community.

The plan also identified recommended actions relating to coastal resources, upland resources, physical health, and community infrastructure and services.

The initiative continues to guide tribal interests through the Swinomish Office of Planning and Community Development.

Online:http://www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change/climate_main.html

Vulnerability Assessment Examples

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QUESTIONS?