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Intuition– Its Power, Mystery & How to Get it
Quote: William James“Compared with what
we ought to be,
we are only half-awake…
We are making use of only
a small part of our
possible mental resources.”
~ William James,
founder of Psychology (1911) ~
Intuition vs Conscious Reasoning
Complexproblems
& creativityrequire Intuition.
Pure analysis is not enough
Intuition(system 1)
Conscious Reasoning(system 2)
SlowLinear, step-wiseAnalyticalDeductiveQuickly changing~ Rule based
RapidParallelNon-linearAssociativeSlow learning~ Emotional
CreativeThought
“Intuition is imperative because conscious reasoning and logic are too limited for human-created problems, particularly those on the global scale.” - Daniel Cappon, ‘Intuition & Management’
The Left-Brain vs. Right-Brain Illusion
Ordered
Logical
Mathematical
Artistic
Creative
Musical
’Intuition’ is an Umbrella Concept
Heuristics
System 1 – all forms of non-conscious thinkingIntuition practice discerns and deepens
Examples of intuition
Experiences
Results
Associations
Instincts ReflexesAutomations
”butterflies in stomach”Certainty
”Heureka!””right direction”Doubting feeling
VisionInsight Message
UnderstandingSolution Confirmation
Intuition – Four Categories (?)
Affective associations (feelings) Recognising (pattern/prototype)
Accumulative (tresholds/combining) Constructive (new ideas)
Intuition Developmental Stages
Smart Heuristics (Gigerenzer)1. Heuristics: useful intuitions!2. Speed up decision-making3. Simplify towards action4. Simplicity wins over complexity
Uncertainty? Intuition wins!
Gerd Gigerenzer
EXAMPLE: Gaze HeuristicSimple Heuristicθ˚
Biases in Heuristics (Kahneman)
“System 1 is the source of your rapid and often precise intuitive judgments. “
“System 2 is not a paragon of rationality. Its abilities are limited and so is the knowledge it has access to.”
“Our thoughts and actions are routinely guided by System 1 and generally are on the mark.”
CASE: Firefighters know
Simple vs. Complex in Forecasting
Error in Past Data fitting Ac
cura
cy %
Heuristic (take the best)
Weighted analysis (regression)
Equal weighting (tallying)
Degree of polynomial (statistical algorithm)Data Fit (Past) Prediction (Future)
Erro
r Lev
el
Accuracy of Temperature forecasts vs Complexity
Heuristics vs Regression in Forecasts
Error in Forecasting Future trend
Too much complexity leads
to over-fitting and worseforecasts
2.4
7.7 variables
7.7
Simple heuristics canwin in forecasting
CASE: Price of Oil Forecast (Taleb)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Quote: William Gibson
“The future is already here
— it's just not very evenly distributed.”
~ William Gibson ~
Expert Forecasts (Tetlock)
Philip Tetlock
Can we forecast the future?
- How accurate are experts?- Are they better than algorithms?- Who are the best forecasters?- What are the qualities of the best?
We believe experts, but have no data!
Experts : Blind Monkeys
CASE: Recession Forecasts (IMF)
Correct: 0 0 3 0 0?
Forecasted recession(one year ahead)
Actual number of recessions(one year after)
Recession forecasting by hundreds of Economic professionals
Two categories of Forecasters Hedgehogs &
Foxes
+30%
Superforecasters (Tetlock)
1. Be a Fox
2. Rate your confidence
3. Score results neutrally
4. Be actively open-minded
5. Re-assess &
Re-calibrate
SuperforecasterPrinciples
Compare several trends: contradict
Historical context: cycles & averages
Average opinion: middle more accurate
Math models: if right in same situation
Predict biases : let go, if data shows
Analyse
Reduce
Deduct
Criticise
Copy
StandardResult
Avoid Risk
Get Insight
Immerse
Contradict
Combine
Associate
Play
New Ideas
Risk vs Insight
How to Get Insights (Klein)Gary KleinHow to get New Insights:
1. Explore contradictions (what if?)2. Create connections (learn new)3. Personal desperation (discard)
Break routines : curious observation
Gary A. Klein
CASE: Who Saves Your Life?Amateur Expert
Amateurs Experts
Helpers
Evaluators
15min 5+y.
15min 5+ y.
Reason Intuition
When you desperately need it – Intuition becomes available
Flow Creates Intuition (Kotler)
Steven Kotler
1. Flow puts you in the intuition zone2. Flow alters state of consciousness3. Sense of time is lost4. Loss of self floods in5. You feel part of something greater
You know directly what to do
CASE: Extreme Rock Climbing
1.Intensely Focused Attention2.Clear Goal (what & why)3.Immediate, Honest Feedback4.Challenge/Skill ratio c. 105%
Creative Breakthroughs (Shavinina)ExtraCognitive Innovations require:
1. Deep passion for subject2. Cognitive curiosity (questioning)3. Self-regulation: mental & emotional4. Self-confidence & independence
Joyful doing: a passion for excellence
Larisa L. Shavinina
CASE: Barbara McClintock (Keller)
QUOTE: Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
“And now here is my secret,
a very simple secret:
It is only with the heart that one can see rightly;
what is essential is invisible to the eye.”
~ Antoine de Saint-Exupéry ~
False Beliefs about the Heart
“It’s just a pump”
“Mechanical”
“Can be replacedwith a machine”
“Steady beat is good”
”Dumb, not intelligent.”
Modern Neuro-cardiologyHeart is a Sensing Organ.
Brains are not the rhythmic controller of bodily functions, the Heart is.
Brain sends c. 40-60 times as much data to the brain as is reverse.
Heart tunes feelings, reactions, perceptions and physiological feedback.
Heart has its own intrinsic memory – independent of the brains.
Heart Coherence improves Intuition
Incoherent: Weakens functioning – requires energy (stress)
Coherent: Supports peak performance – increases resiliency
Pu
lse
Pu
lse
Disturbscognitivefunctions
Improvescognitivefunctions
Time (seconds)
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 – 1 50 100 150 200
© Institute of HeartMath
1 50 100 150 200
Time (seconds)
Heart EMF Field Extends Beyond Body
+3m outside the body
Encodes emotional information
Others can sense the field
Fields can synchronize together
DO: Quick Heart Coherence Meditation
2. Close Your eyes andimagine you breathe through your heart
4. Breathe throughheart & feel the love and
gratitude in your body
3. Recall a positive memory of love or deep gratitude
1. Take a few deep diaphragm breaths
Quote: Rumi
“Only from the heart
can you touch the sky..”
~ Rumi ~
WARNING!
Tesla – A Visionary Genius
“My brain is only a receiver, in the Universe there is a core from which we obtain knowledge, strength and inspiration.
I have not penetrated into the secrets of this core, but I know that it exists.”
― Nikola Tesla
Extraordinary Knowing
Quote: Kaufmann - telepathy
“If mind is partially quantum, nonlocality is
possible … as is telepathy.
We are arrogant not to look at this with
open minds.”
— Stuart Kauffman, biologist (2015)
Body Anticipates the Future
Before photo During photo Photo removed
Time
Exciting photo
0
+3 s +10 s
Calming photo
0 s-5 s
Calming photo
Exciting photo
Skin reaction
vs.?
“We found out experimentally that ESP exists, but that any practical application of this knowledge is not likely in the foreseeable future.”
- Masanobu Sakaguchi , Sony (1998)
If it Works – Why isn’t being used?
Can Psychics crack the Wall St?
Did Psychic Powers Give Firm
a Killing In the Silver Market?
— And Did Greed Ruin It All?By Erik LarsonThis was a test, and a clever one, of the ancient network of oracles. Croesus sent messengers to ask each oracle to describe what the king was up to at that particular moment. Only the oracle at Delphi called it right. No slouch when it came to rewards, Croesus slaughtered a few thousand sacrificial beasts, then dropped off a little something extra: 117 gold ingots and a solid gold lion weighing 570 pounds. Delphi Associates of San Mateo would settle for the gold lion. Delphi is a struggling three-man partnership formed to cash in on the fruits of its founders' psychic research. "This is not just an amusing exercise," says Anthony R. White, a Stanford University M.B.A., art investor and manager of a family fortune. The research heavyweight is Russell Targ, a physicist who built sophisticated lasers for GTE Sylvania Inc. until 1972, then spent the next 10 years doing hush-hush, still "classified," psychic research for the federal government at SRI International, the sober California think tank. "We didn't invent psychic functioning," he says. "We thought we understood it enough to go into the market.“
Clairvoyance has always had its rewards. In 550 B.C., King Croesus of Lydia sliced up a tortoise and a lamb and mashed them together in a brass pot. This was not dinner.This was a test, and a clever one, of the ancient network of oracles. Croesus sent messengers to ask each oracle to describe what the king was up to at that particular moment. Only the oracle at Delphi called it right. No slouch when it came to rewards, Croesus slaughtered a few thousand sacrificial beasts, then dropped off a little something extra: 117 gold ingots and a solid gold lion
weighing 570 pounds.Delphi Associates of San Mateo would settle for the gold lion.
Delphi is a struggling three-man partnership formed to cash in on the fruits of its founders' psychic research. "This is not just an amusing exercise,"
— Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition). Oct 22, 1984. —
Remote Viewing used by Organizations
Meditative Traditions Confirm
“By Samyama over the changes of characteristic,
secondary quality and condition, comes to the Yogis
the knowledge of the past and the future.”
~ Patañjali , ’Yoga Sutras’(400 CE) ~
“Great enlightening beings, by super-knowledge of the eons
of the entire future, know the ages of the worlds as numerous
as the atoms in untold Buddha lands.
This called great enlightening beings’ fourth super-knowledge, the power of knowing the ages
of the entire future.”
~ ’Flower Ornament Scripture’ (200 CE) ~
“Know your Atman - the pure, infinite consciousness,
eternally existent in the past, present and future.
Thus you will find peace .”
~ Adi Shankara, ’Vivekaduchamani’ (700 CE)~
Quote: Einstein
“People like us, who believe in physics,
know that the distinction between
past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.”
~ Albert Einstein ~
How do I do this?
1. Direct
2. Quiet down & Turn Inward
3. Observe & Linger
4. Apply & Test
Yes
No
Somethingelse
5. Have fun!
Thank You!
Intuition Books
Business
Biases Heuristics Risk Intuitions Insights
Using
Research
Methods Developing Examples
Extraordinary Intuition Reading