Investing in research Securing biodiversity & ecosystem

services

McKinsey Global Survey report, 2010, 1576 respondents

• What research do we need to invest in to secure biodiversity & ecosystem services?

• What information do we already have?

• Where are the research gaps?

• How do we develop new research capabilities to tackle evolving environmental problems?

Talk outline

R.S. de Groot et al. 2010 Ecological Complexity 7 (2010) 260–272

What research do we need?

Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe

Protected (12%)

Not protected (88%)

Key data needed

1. Understanding of the key ecosystems and their functions on the land;

2. How dynamic they are in time;

3. Their spatial configuration and scale;

4. Methods to integrate information into landscape planning, management and decision making tools;

5. An understanding of the end user…

• What research do we need to invest in to secure biodiversity & ecosystem services?

• What information do we already have?

• Where are the research gaps?

• How do we develop new research capabilities to tackle evolving environmental problems?

Talk outline

EU-research in to ecosystem and landscape properties

Ecosystem service landscape planning, management and decision making tools

InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs)

ESValue

ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services)

ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) End-user needs to work with the ARIES team; developed for specific area; one site

output requires 200-300 hours of Senior GIS technician time InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Time varies depending on the site and the technician’s expertise; one site output

requires 160-280 hours of Senior GIS technician time ESValue

~ 200 hours for one site; requires GIS expertise, expert knowledge of ecological relationships plus data from stakeholders EcoAIM (Ecological Asset Inventory and Management)

>25 hours; involves reviewing, downloading, converting and uploading data by stakeholder

Current Ecosystem Service Tools: (http://www.bsr.org/reports/BSR_ESTM_WG_Comp_ES_Tools_Synthesis3.pdf)

Where are the research gaps?

• Large scientific biodiversity resource available through primary research, modelling and databases;

• However, dissemination of these data often poor;

• Particularly poor are lines of communication between academic and end-user;

• Often end up with data and tools that are not fit-for-purpose

"a gap in biodiversity market infrastructure that persists is lack of landscape-scale ecological monitoring. While site-level ecological monitoring is not uncommon, the data is not easily available, much less complied in a comprehensive way".

Madsen, B., Caroll, N., Kandy, D., Bennett, G (2011) Update: State of Biodiversity Markets. Washington, DC: Forest Trends, 2011. http://www. ecosystemmarketplace.com/reports/2011_update_sbdm.

• What research do we need?

• What information do we already have?

• Where are the research gaps?

• Developing new research capabilities to tackle evolving environmental problems

What research do we need to invest in to secure biodiversity & ecosystem services?

1. Data/modelling to determine distribution of

ecosystem services in time & space (biologists, modellers, mathematicians)

2. Research capabilities to convert this data into tools relevant for end-user (computer scientists, hard-ware engineers, app developers)

3. New field methodologies for rapid ecosystem service assessments and ground-truthing of models

What type of research do we need to develop tools that are fit for purpose?

Case study: developing an ecological risk assessment tool

Developing new research capabilities to tackle evolving environmental problems

?

? ? ?

?

Capabilities to determine landscapes that are less important for biodiversity?

1. Need a tool that provides estimation of ecological value of land outside of protected areas

2. To produce landscape information at a spatial scale less than 500m;

3. Use existing available web-based databases;

4. Produce simplified displays – preferably maps;

5. Simple user input;

6. Able to assess any region in world;

Global vegetation cover at 300m pixel size resolution

(GLOBCOVER (Bicheron et al. 2009)

Within the chosen spatial area, what resolution (pixel size) is possible?

What data are needed to provide an spatial distribution of ecological value

(risk) on a landscape?

Need data on:

1. Key ecological properties of the landscape (e.g. biodiversity, threatened species)

2. Key features for supporting ecosystem functions (e.g. connectivity (migration routes, wetlands) habitat integrity, resilience)

3. Their spatial configuration on the landscape.

Biodiversity data

• For most regions in the world will rarely be enough detailed species data to obtain clear picture

• Necessary to model predictive diversity across landscape (generalised dissimilarity modelling)

• Use combination of point species occurrences + environmental variables to predict diversity on landscape

Global Biodiversity (GBIF): Data Portal (http://data.gbif.org) that provides access to more than 300 million records of species occurrence worldwide [also contains fossil records but these removed from analyses]

Biodiversity species occurrence data

Data sources for environmental variables

Beta-diversity for Canadian site measured using Generalised Dissimilarity modelling

Value provided for every 300m pixel

Threatened species data sources

• 2010 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species

• Assessments for ~56,000 species, of which about 28,000 have spatial data.

• Consider all categories in concession area except ‘least concerned’ and ‘extinct’

• More threatened species in pixel, higher its value

Threatened species distribution in Canadian concession area

Fragmentation data

• Spatial continuity of natural vegetation based on the size (ha) of each continuous patch

• Computer programme FRAGSTATS (McGarigal and Marks, 1995) defines individual patches and calculates patch size

• Apply FRAGSTATS to vegetation cover

• Greater the patch size, higher the ecological value

Fragmentation map Canadian concession areas

Global Register of Migratory Species

• Contains list of 2,880 migratory vertebrate species in digital format • Also their threat status according to the International Red List 2000, • Digital maps for 545 species • Sum the number of migratory ranges occurring in each per pixel

www.groms.de

Connectivity (1) Migratory routes

Migratory paths

Raptors: Fperegri.shpRaptors: Achrysae.shpPigeon: Emigrato.shpRaptors: Agentili.shpRaptors: Astriatu.shpRaptors: Bjamaice.shpRaptors: Bswainso.shp

Raptors: Bregalis.shp

Raptors: Bplatypt.shp

#Y Facilities

CANADA 700 x 700 km

Migratory birds ranges

Raptors: Fperegri.shpRaptors: Achrysae.shpPigeon: Emigrato.shpRaptors: Agentili.shpRaptors: Astriatu.shpRaptors: Bjamaice.shpRaptors: Bswainso.shp

Raptors: Bregalis.shp

Raptors: Bplatypt.shp

#Y Facilities

CANADA 700 x 700 km

Migratory birds ranges

Migratory ranges

Connectivity (2) – Migration processes

• Prioritize pixels that support migratory processes:

– Rivers, wetlands and lakes (at 300m resolution)

– Adjacent pixels to rivers (so as to allow migratory corridors)

Data source: HYDROSHEDS (USGS), Global lakes & wetlands database (WWF)

Water bodies and drainage networks for Canadian concession area

Global Lakes and Wetlands Database,

HYDROSHEDS; 30m pixel resolution

Resilience

– Areas of landscape that are particularly resistant to climate change/disturbance

– Areas of landscape that are able to recover from disturbance quicker than others

Resilience: measured through ability of vegetation to

maintain relatively high levels of productivity despite low levels of rainfall

Rainfall (mm) in driest month

Annualized NPP

Vegetation Type

Scoring Rule: 1, if highest quartile of productivity & lowest quartile of rainfall 0.5, if highest quartile of productivity & next lowest quartile of rainfall 0, otherwise Assessed per vegetation type

Resilience, Canadian concession area

Final index

Final index: Local ecological footprint valuation

Species richness

Vulnerability

Connectivity

Fragmentation

Resilience

+

+

+

+

Automation

Measuring and displaying uncertainity

Cusuco, Honduras • Montane tropical moist forest • Surveyed 2004-2010 • >50,000 records of terrestrial vertebrates in database

Mahamavo watershed, Madagascar Can LEFT identify which globally threatened terrestrial vertebrates are present in a study site?

All threatened terrestrial vertebrates

Field data Web data

LEFT correct

LEFT commission error (not detected by fieldwork, yet included in LEFT)

LEFT omission error (detected by fieldwork, but missed by LEFT)

Threatened birds

Threatened mammals

Threatened reptiles

Threatened amphibians

0

1

4

0

8

9

0

0

11

3

0

0

5 17 14

Difference map White = agreement. Red = LEFT predicts relatively more threatened species than field data (commission error) Blue = LEFT predicts relatively fewer threatened species than field data (omission error)

Can LEFT correctly identify which locations in a study site are most important for threatened species?

Mahamavo – beta diversity comparison Can LEFT (using GBIF records) correctly identify which locations have relatively greater amounts of biodiversity?

Difference map Yellow = agreement.

Red = LEFT predicts relatively more beta-diversity than field data (commission error) Blue = LEFT predicts relatively less beta-diversity than field data (omission error)

LEFT underestimates beta-diversity compared to field data. However the error/discrepancy is systematic and the pattern is highly consistent. Encouraging as this suggests that LEFT does a great job of estimating relative beta-diversity, just a matter of how the result should be scaled.

left

Summary

• Tool will work anywhere in the world at local-scale resolution (~ 300m pixel)

• Provides report, maps, files on all values used to calculated ecological value in ~10 minutes

• Preliminary studies to compare tool output with high resolution field data indicates that general ecological trends well represented

• Consistent and quick approach for obtaining most up-to-date biodiversity information

• Large scientific biodiversity resource already available through databases, modelling and ecological knowledge

• Creation of tools to link this information together requires highly interdisciplinary research community

• … but must also have good knowledge of requirements of end-user

• Such approaches enable scenario setting & also to determine and display uncertainity

• What future tools/technologies should we be developing for both mapping and recording biodiversity & ecosystem services?

Lessons learnt from developing ecological risk assessment tool

• Who are the end-users for ecosystem service mapping?

• What level of detail is required for these users? • Which are the key ecosystem services to

determine? – What data do we already have? – What additional data do we need? – What are the most appropriate models/GIS to obtain

this data

• What spatial scale is most relevant? • Who will fund this research?

Future questions for scientific research communities