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IEA-Equity
Strategy
3th Mar 2014
The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business
model with RoE (16%), strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of
Rs.118.With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our
estimates we maintain a positive fundamental outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of further
equity dilution is reduced . ............................................................ (Page : 17)
Infosys : "Meritocracy to growth" "BUY" 4th Mar 2014
In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in
Infosys could be asked to leave or may hand over layoff notices. Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion, also operating
metrics will turn into greenery from hay. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a
target price of target price of Rs 3910 . ............................................................... ( Page : 14-16)
6th March, 2014
Edition : 219
EROSMEDIA :"Moving to Blockbuster" "BUY"
The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2
times of its FY15E book value. However, If the company if things will going positively we could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but
we don't believe buyers would be willing to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral given
the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target to Rs. 120. ................................................................ (
Page : 5-6)
Powergrid : "BUY"
Escorts Ltd: "Volume Growth Remains The Key;Retain Buy" "BUY" 5th Mar 2014
Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve further in
FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-to-
medium. Thus, We revise our estimates upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our rating on
the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current level with Revised price target of Rs. 175
........................................................................ ( Page : 12-13)
5th Mar 2014
Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than 8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages.
Likewise, company is going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April, 2014. Its well positioned to monetize rich
content of library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. .......................................... ( Page :9-11)
SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd : "BOOK PROFIT" 6th Mar 2014
In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter
have given a premium of 40 per cent over its recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental
changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels. Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a
P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own past historical data .
...................................................................... ( Page : 7-8)
Hindustan Zinc LTD : Good gains ahead "BUY" 6th Mar 2014
Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet
and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being an integrated & dominant
player in the domestic industry with low cost of production, the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in
one year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our
positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-. ....................................................... ( Page : 2-4)
Voltas Ltd : Downgrade to "Neutral"……. "NEUTRAL" 6th Mar 2014
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
India Equity AnalyticsDaily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities
Hindustan Zinc LTD.
123
148
148
20%
0%
500188
51929
5192
6329
Robust Q3FY14 Performance :1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 4.3 -1.7 -3.4
Rel. to Nifty 0.0 9.2 11.3
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 64.9 64.9 64.9
FII 1.8 1.8 1.5
DII 31.4 31.4 31.5
Others 1.8 1.8 2.1
Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14
Net Revenue 3450 8.6 -9.8 3178 3826
EBITDA 1824 22.1 -3.1 1494 1883
Depriciation 210 18.6 12.9 177 186
Tax 305 50.2 20.1 203 254
PAT 1723 6.8 5.1 1613 1640(In Crs)
2
Good gains ahead
Previous Target Price
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Stock Performance-%
Share Holding Pattern-%
1 yr Forward P/B
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Nifty
BUY
Market Data
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
BSE Code
HINDZINCNSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
CMP
Target Price
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 performance was inline to our estimates on the back of
healthy zinc sales volumes and higher metal premiums. Total operating income for
Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY but lower by 3.1% QoQ. Total zinc
sales in Q3FY14 came in at 196,000 tonne, up 17% YoY and 2% QoQ . The company
realised premium on metal sales amounting to $241/tonne for zinc (Zn) & $305/tonne for
lead (Pb) . Lead sales volume for the quarter stood at 23500 tonnes (lower by 24% QoQ
and 22% YoY), while silver sales volumes stood at 78500 kg (lower by 31% YoY and 14%
QoQ) . EBITDA came in at Rs.1823.8 crore and inline to our estimate of Rs. 1829.6 crore.
Subsequently, net profit stood at Rs. 1722.7 crore .
Valuation & Recommendation
Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive
outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over
production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being
an integrated & dominant player in the domestic industry with low cost of production,
the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in one
year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant
growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY
rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-.
Zinc market was bearish during last consecutive years having surplus in inventory, but
now sentiment is slowly turning positive showing some uptrends in Zinc LME prices.
Visible inventories on the London Metals Exchange, as well as on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange, are down about 30% over the last year. And zinc demand is increasing steadily.
We believe Zinc price will be the core fundamental behind the Hindustan zinc’s bull story
in the coming years. We see a improving volume of production through FY15.More So
Govt. The attorney-general’s clearance for the Centre’s proposal to divest its residual
stake in Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) lifted the Street’s mood. Again the board delayed this
process and guided investors that disinvestment of government's remaining stake in
Hindustan Zinc will happen next fiscal year. Stake sale in HZL again seems to be back
burner now. We also see gradual and sustainable recovery in global macro Scenario
which supports a positive cycle in industrial metals. So, we believe there exists a strong
case for significant earnings estimate for Hind Zinc in coming months.
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
142/94
Upside
Change from Previous
Result Update
"BUY"6th March' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Lower Production Guideline LME Price/Ton
Key Concerns
A.
B.
C.LME Price/Ton
D.
E.
Key Triggers for Growth
A. Company is tracking on 95% capacity utilization.
B.
C.
D. LME Price/Ton
E.
F.
G.
H. Zinc premium reaches six year high as inventories shrink
I. Fees that zinc smelter charge to refine the metat that probably to increase 5%.
3
Hindustan Zinc LTD.
Volatile Desel Price and high Sulphuric acid price affecting the company,s PAT adversly.
A reason to wait and watch , is since the government is looking at auction, how much
will Vedanta be able to garner and what price it is willing to pay is not known.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
HZL has marginally downward revised its mined metal production guidance for FY14 from
950,000 tonnes earlier to 900,000 tonnes. This reflects slower-than-expected ramp up of
underground mining projects and some changes in mining sequence wherein preference
has been given to primary mine development during this period.
HZL’s revenues are directly linked with the global market for products essentially, Zinc
and Lead which are priced with reference to LME prices and Silver to LBMA (London
Bullion Metal Association) prices.
Lower than expected demand by galvanizing industries for zinc and industrial batteries,
car batteries industries for lead would affect the company estimates.
Disruptions in mining due to equipment failures, unexpected maintenance problems ,
non-availability of raw materials of appropriate price, quantity and quality for energy
requirements, disruptions to or increased cost of transport services or strikes and
industrial actions or disputes.
Captive plants enjoy the lower Tax rate and company enjoys zero tax from tax free
geographycal areas.
The Rampura Agucha underground mine project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven
downward from the surface) and commercial production already ramp up in Q3 and will
in Q4 of FY14 . The Kayad mine project will also commence commercial production in
the current fiscal year.
A cash-rich balance sheet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL
an attractive bet at the current price levels.
Disinvestment of government's remaining stake in Hindustan Zinc and Bharat
Aluminium (Balco) will happen next fiscal year .
In the past Vedanta Group has said it wanted majority control when Vedanta had earlier
offered Rs 149 a share . If this is any benchmark,then investors will stand to gain.
Smelting Plants are improvised and management is confident that the smelting plants
will maintain their stance for the coming quarters also.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Silver(rs/ounce)
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Lead
90000
95000
100000
105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Zinc
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
9912 11405 12700 13577
979 1543 2032 1787
10891 12948 14732 15364
1023 1228 1070 1291
492 568 696 707
4417 5336 6218 6484
5496 6069 6482 7093
475 611 647 718
19 14 29 37
1059 1419 921 1097
4900 5526 6899 6967
22.0 21.0 21.0 19.0
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
423 845 845 845
17701 21688 26036 31431
18124 22533 26881 32276
478 475 410 484
340 567 504 825
20238 25053 29485 35465
109 109 47 10
6071 7145 8466 8474
1113 875 445 1082
361 594 876 1898
452 762 798 1111
152 209 332 403
928 5633 5255 6942
96 158 233 373
20238 25053 29485 35465
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
3.2 2.2 2.1 1.7
95.6 11.6 13.1 16.3
1.9 2.1 2.9 3.2
6.0 4.8 3.6 3.8
0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
4001 4483 4553 4935
77 -212 -61 -183
4077 4272 4492 4752
-3881 -3658 -3499 -3234
-187 -363 -1242 -1257
8 250 -248 262
4
Short-term loans and advances
Total Assets
P/B
EPS
RATIOS
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
EBIDTA & Margin :
Inventories
Trade receivables
Cash and bank balances
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
CASH FLOWS
Debtor to Turnover%
Cash From Investment
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year
Creditors to Turnover%
Inventories to Turnover%
Cash from Operation
Changes In Working Capital
Net Cash From Operation
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Long-term loans and advances
ZinC Productions:
Expenditure
Trade payables
Short-term provisions
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Depriciation
PAT
ROE%
Hindustan Zinc LTD.
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Interest Cost
Net tax expense / (benefit)
Repairs
EBITDA
P/L PERFORMANCE
Net Revenue from Operation
Other Income
Total Income
Power, fuel & water
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
43 43 41
49
42
49 47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500EBIDTA
EBIDTA %
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Zinc Production (tons)
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500 NetRevenuefromOperation
RevenueGrowth
Voltas Ltd.
CMP 139
Target Price 125
Previous
Target Price
95
Upside -10%
Change from
Previous
32%
BSE Code 500575
NSE Symbol VOLTAS
52wk Range
H/L
65/143
Mkt Capital
(Rs Crores)
4,609
Nifty 6,329
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 28.5 75.2 84.2
Rel. to Nifty 23.1 64.0 72.9
3QFY14 2QFY13 1QFY14
Promoters 30.3 30.2 30.2
FII 15.2 14.5 18.1
DII 29.8 29.8 25.6
Others 24.8 25.6 26.1
5
Management comment on above JV :
Downgrade to "Neutral"…….
What New...???
Market Data
Company update NeutralVoltas Ltd has proposed to form a new joint venture (JV) company named –“ Voltas Water
Solutions” which will have equal capital contribution from “Voltas” and “Dow Chemical Pacific”
(Singapore) Pte (Dow). This JV company will market and distribute standard packaged Water
Treatment Systems and Waste Water Treatment Systems of capacity up to 20 m 3/hour, to
residential and commercial complexes and light industrial markets in the Indian subcontinent.
The entity's operations would include designing, procuring, testing, marketing, selling and
servicing of such standard water treatment systems and waste water treatment systems.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
1 yr Forward P/B
Stock Performance-%
Share Holding Pattern-%About Dow Group :
Dow Chemical Pacific (Singapore) Pte Ltd was established in 1992. Catering to customers in Asia
Pacific, particularly South East Asia, Dow Group combines the power of science and technology to
passionately innovate what is essential to human progress. The company is driving innovations
that extract value from the Intersection of chemical, physical and biological sciences to help
address many of the world's most challenging problems such as the need for clean water, clean
energy generation and conservation, and increasing agricultural productivity. The company's
integrated, market-driven, industry-leading portfolio of specialty chemical, advanced materials,
agrosciences and plastics businesses delivers a broad range of technology-based products and
solutions to customers in high growth sectors such as packaging, electronics, water, coatings and
agriculture.Valuation :
The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is
not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2 times of its FY15E book value. We estimate that at
the lower end of management's guidance this translates into a 12.1%/12.7% RoE forFY14/15E.
We believe management is attempting to be conservative regarding the guidance for FY14 &
FY15, but even with a 60/90 bps improvement in the operating margin the RoE would be
approximately 12.1%/12.7% for FY14/15E , which we believes would translate into a P/B multiple
of approximately 2.0x – to 2.2x. This translates to a 12 month price target of approximately Rs.
120 based on our FY14E BVPS of Rs. 59. However, If the company if things will going positively we
could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but we don't believe buyers would be willing
to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral
given the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target
to Rs. 120.”
Water has been identified as a key focus area for the Tata group. With its unrivalled know-how
and technological leadership in the water treatment space, the partnership, will help Voltas
Water Solutions cater to the growing water treatment requirements of the Indian subcontinent.
They further believe that partnership will simultaneously leverage the brand and distribution
strength of Voltas, along with the technology prowess of the water and process solutions division
of the Dow Group.
Our View on said JV :
In today scenario major Water and Waste Water Treatment market is mostly and largely catered
by unorganized players. And the market which is targeted by this new joint venture will provide a
branded and differentiated product line in the sector, with a focus on quality and service
delivery.
Average Daily Vol. (Nos.) 624,126
"Neutral"6th Mar' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
6
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Ammount in crore
INR in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)
Voltas Ltd.
Key financials :
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Ammount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)
Ammount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E
Performance
Revenue 4326 4757 5191 5186 5531 5320 5852
Other Income 94 78 58 98 90 84 100
Total Income 4420 4836 5250 5284 5621 5404 5952
EBITDA 283 460 463 336 245 261 296
EBIT 262 438 442 303 217 237 268
DEPRICIATION 21 21 21 34 28 24 28
INTREST COST 11 10 17 31 40 35 42
PBT 372 532 524 219 280 286 326
TAX 117 147 172 57 73 74 85
Extra Oridiniary Items 26 25 40 -150 12 0 0
Reported PAT 255 385 352 162 207 211 241
Dividend (INR) 73 73 73 73 73 54 54
DPS 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 61.5 61.5
EPS 7.7 11.6 10.6 4.9 6.3 6.4 7.3
Yeild %
EBITDA % 6.5% 9.7% 8.9% 6.5% 4.4% 4.9% 5.1%
NPM % 5.8% 8.0% 6.7% 3.1% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0%
Earning Yeild % 16.2% 6.5% 6.2% 4.4% 8.3% 4.4% 5.0%
Dividend Yeild % 4.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 2.9% 42.4% 42.4%
ROE % 32.2% 35.4% 25.8% 11.0% 12.7% 11.9% 12.3%
ROCE% 27.3% 35.2% 24.6% 11.4% 13.1% 12.3% 13.0%
Position
Net Worth 790 1085 1362 1478 1626 1775 1955
Total Debt 181 35 137 223 261 225 225
Capital Employed 971 1120 1498 1701 1887 2000 2180
No of Share (Adj) 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
CMP 48 178 172 112 75 145 145
Valuation
Book Value 23.9 32.8 41.2 44.7 49.1 53.7 59.1
P/B 2.0 5.4 4.2 2.5 1.5 2.7 2.5
Int/Coverage 23.8 44.5 26.7 9.6 5.5 6.8 6.4
P/E 6.2 15.3 16.1 22.9 12.1 22.7 19.9
V- SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.
CMP 648
Target Price 648
600
Upside 0%
7%
BSE Code 500407
NSE Symbol
801
1,015
Nifty 6,329
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 5.3 47.8 63.4
Rel. to Nifty (0.2) 36.6 52.0
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 50.6 50.6 50.6
FII 1.9 1.9 1.5
DII 10.6 10.4 10.6
Others 36.9 37.1 37.3
7
Recommendation History
Valuation
At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of
Rs. 61.7 by 10.5x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of
26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and
capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Furthermore, despite the capex of Rs. 38 crore, the
company has strong cash flows and the company is debt free. Also, Company assurance of 30-
60% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
1 yr Forward P/B
Share Holding Pattern-%
Stock Performance-%
Average Daily Volume
Moreover, we feel that caution is necessary over the recent robust financial as well as
operational performance that the company has delivered over the past year. With 90 per cent of
its turnover generated through parent company, the revenue stream also seems concentrated. In
conclusion, looking at the above mentioned woes, we advise readers to book profits in the
counter at its current levels and fresh buying may be considered at cheaper levels of around Rs.
500-550 a share.
Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised
FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own
past historical data
" Book Profits While The Going Is Good…. "
Book ProfitCompany update
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
52wk Range H/L
Previous Target Price
SWARAJENG
Change from Previous
Market Data
382/672
In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view
to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter have given a premium of 40 per cent over its
recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental
changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels.
We are quite positive on the Swaraj Engines, owing to its strong tractor volume growth, capacity
expansion to 1,05,000 engines pa from 75,000 of current level, softening of commodity prices
and company presence in all HP segments. We are upbeat on the stock on the account of core
business momentum remains robust with healthy EPS growth, cash flow generation and high
RoE.
"Book Profit"6th Mar' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Date Report Type CMP Target PriceChange From
Previous in %
25th April' 13 Company Update 460 515 NA
17th June' 13 Company Update 511 535 3.9%
10th July' 13 Company Update 533 535 0.0%
1st Aug' 13 Result Update 484 535 0.0%
26th Nov' 13 Result Update 610 600 12.1%
3rd Feb' 14 Result Update 602 648 8.0%
9
8
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(Ammount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)
SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.
Key financials :
(Source: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E
Performance
Revenue 208 282 361 449 479 600 680
Other Income 5 10 8 12 15 18 20
Total Income 213 292 369 461 494 618 700
EBITDA 32 50 61 69 71 89 102
EBIT 27 45 56 65 64 80 91
DEPRICIATION 5 5 4 4 7 9 11
INTREST COST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 32 55 64 77 79 98 111
TAX 11 17 20 24 24 30 34
Reported PAT 21 37 44 53 55 67 77
Dividend 7 12 14 19 48 24 30
EPS 17.2 30.1 35.4 42.5 44.6 54.2 61.7
DPS 5.9 9.3 11.6 15.1 38.4 19.3 24.2
Yeild %
EBITDA % 15.3% 17.6% 16.8% 15.5% 14.9% 14.8% 15.0%
PBT % 15.5% 19.4% 17.8% 17.2% 16.6% 16.3% 16.3%
NPM % 10.2% 13.2% 12.2% 11.8% 11.6% 11.2% 11.3%
Earning Yeild % 8.0% 31.6% 12.2% 9.9% 11.3% 8.4% 9.5%
Dividend Yeild % 2.7% 9.8% 4.0% 3.5% 9.7% 3.0% 3.7%
ROE % 21.9% 30.4% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6% 28.5% 26.6%
ROCE% 21.9% 30.4% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6% 28.5% 26.6%
Position
Net Worth 97 123 152 186 194 236 287
No of Share 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CMP 214 95 290 429 395 648 648
Valuation
Book Value 78.3 98.8 122.6 150.0 156.0 190.2 231.5
P/B 2.7 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.4 2.8
P/E 3.5 5.3 5.6 5.1 6.8 12.0 10.5
Net Sales/Equity 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
EROSMEDIA
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 13.1 -7.3 -
Rel. to Nifty 8.2 -17.4 -
Current 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 74.88 74.88 74.88
FII 12.45 12.16 11.35
DII 1.56 1.87 2.95
Others 11.11 11.09 10.82
Financials
3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 432.68 201 115.2 369.3 17.2
EBITDA 135.6 51.2 165.0 90.6 49.6
PAT 92.0 37.0 148.8 65.2 41.1
EBITDA Margin 31.3% 25.4% 590bps 24.5% 680bps
PAT Margin 21.3% 18.4% 290bps 17.7% 360bps
9
Robust 3QFY14 Result: Company reported better numbers with sales growth of
17% (YoY) led by huge spurt in catalogue monetization, which increase by approx-
75% (YoY). Its PAT grew by 41%(YoY).
View and Valuation: Management is very excited to invest into different
medium like internet and launching channels to generate revenue. Company’s
optimistic stance towards maintaining margins, strong movies slate and very low
valuation makes attractive. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 1.1 P/BVx FY15.
We initiate “BUY” with a target price of Rs 200.
During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 680bps (YoY) to 31.3%
because of reduction in operational expenses and employee expenses.
Management expects to see EBITDA margin at 25% in FY14E and FY15E than 20-
22% range of margin in previous 4 years.
52wk Range H/L 195/107
1467Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Market DataBSE Code 533261
NSE Symbol EROSMEDIA
Average Daily Volume 26241
-
Upside 25%
Change from Previous
"Moving to Blockbuster"
Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than
8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages. Likewise, company is
going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April,
2014. Apart from this, company is expected to release Dishkiyaaoon, Shadi Ke
Side Effect, Action Jackson, Tanu weds Manu season 2, Sarkar3, Chalo China,
NH-10, Dekho Magar Pyaar Se, Happy Ending and Rana in FY15E.
It has largest Indian content library of films with 1100+ films and digital rights
to an additional 700 films. Its well positioned to monetize rich content of
library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. Considering diversified and sustainable Business Model along with well
positioned to monetize rich content of its library and block buster success ratio
of movies (out of the top 10 grossing films in recent years, 3 are from Eros.)
make us positive view on the stock.About Company: Eros International Media (EROS) is one of the largest films co-
production and distribution company in India and overseas, engage with pre-
sales of overseas rights, music rights and broadcasting rights. It recovers 35-40%
of its costs by selling movie rights to channels, recovers another 35-40% from
selling its overseas rights to overseas entities. Similarly, it gets 10-15% of the
cost of movies by selling music rights .
Buy
P/BV-1 year forward
Rs, Crore
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Recent initiatives: Eros has struck new deals during the period with MSM
Satellite Singapore private ltd for broadcast of films on Sony as well as with
Viacom18 media for broadcast films on colours.Recently Eros International media has launched two new movie channels HBO
DEFINED and HBO HITS, which will reduce its dependence on highly
unpredictable revenue streams going forward.
Share Holding Pattern-%
CMP 160
Target Price 200
Initiating Report
Previous Target Price
Nifty 6298
Stock Performance
"BUY"5th March' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
10
EROSMEDIA
Margin-%
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
1. Piracy is the key concern for the
company. Indian film industry loses
approx. Rs.2000 cr. every year due to
piracy (source: FICCI-KPMG report 2009).
Key Concerns:
2. Lower consumer discretionary demand.
3. Difficult to predict fate of films.
Sales and Sales growth(%)(yoy)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Upcoming Movies:
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Date of Release Upcoming movies Director Starcast
28-Feb-14 Shaadi Ke Side Effects Saket Chaudhary Farhan Akhtar,Vidya Balan
21-Mar-14 Dishkiyaaoon Sanmjit Singh Talwar Sunny Deol, Harman Baweja
28-Mar-14 Happy Ending Raj and DK Saif Ali Khan, Ileana D'Cruz
11-Apr-14 Kochadaiiyaan Soundarya Ashwin Rajnikanth, Deepika Padukone
6-Jun-14 Action Jackson Prabhu Deva Ajay Devgn, Sonakshi Sinha
12-Sep-14 NH-10 Navdeep singh Anushka sharma,Neil bhoopalam
Tanu Weds Manu Season 2 Anand Rai R.Madhavan,Kangana Ranaut
R. Balki Untitled R.Balki Amitabh Bachchan, Dhanush
Aankheen 2 Apoorva Lakhia Abhishek Bachchan
Illuminati Untitled Arif Ali Armaan Jain
Dekh Tamasha Dekh Feroz Abbas Khan Satish Kaushik and Others
Purani Jeans Tanushree Basu Aditya Seal
Chalo china Shashank Ghosh Vinay Pathak, Lara Dutta
FY15E
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14E
1. Catalogue monetization will continue to grow strong in the upcoming quarters.
2. Company will monetize entire portfolio across different platforms
3. Catalogue monetization will increase from 13%-14% to 20-25% of overall revenue in coming 3 to 4 years.
4. Management is looking for more and more free cash flows going forward.
5. Q4 will be very positive and going forward FY15E will also be very positive for the company.
6
11
EROSMEDIA
Management Guidance:
Management is very confident about its performance going forward and expects EBITDA margin to be around 25% in
FY14E and FY15E.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Financials;
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Rs,cr FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Sales 640.88 706.97 943.88 1067.95 1110.8 1229.9
RM Cost(Operatinal expenses) 480.33 495.13 665.45 765.78 766.5 860.9
WIP 0 0.84 -2.92 -2.55 -2.7 -2.9
Employee Cost 19.7 25.28 22.55 27.29 29.4 36.9
Other expenses 27.81 29.57 42.96 47.47 29.4 36.9
Total expenses 527.84 550.82 728.04 837.99 822.7 931.8
EBITDA 113.04 156.15 215.84 229.96 288.1 298.1
Depreciation and Amortisation 4.39 3.82 6 6.45 7.7 9.2
Other Income 12.62 8.95 19.3 6.4 11.1 12.3
EBIT 108.65 152.33 209.84 223.51 280.4 288.9
Interest 9.02 9.39 13.44 9.22 25.4 26.0
PBT 112.25 151.89 215.7 220.69 266.2 275.2
Tax Exp 29.63 33.67 63.14 61.19 77.7 80.4
PAT 82.62 118.22 152.56 159.5 188.5 194.8
Sales 16.9% 10.3% 33.5% 13.1% 4.0% 10.7%
EBITDA 52.8% 38.1% 38.2% 6.5% 25.3% 3.5%
PAT 72.1% 43.1% 29.0% 4.5% 18.2% 3.4%
RM Cost 74.9% 70.0% 70.5% 71.7% 69.0% 70.0%
Employee Cost 3.1% 3.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0%
Other expenses 4.3% 4.2% 4.6% 4.4% 2.7% 3.0%
Tax rate 4.6% 4.8% 6.7% 5.7% 7.0% 6.5%
EBITDA 17.6% 22.1% 22.9% 21.5% 25.9% 24.2%
EBIT 17.0% 21.5% 22.2% 20.9% 25.2% 23.5%
PAT 12.9% 16.7% 16.2% 14.9% 17.0% 15.8%
CMP 138.9 138.9 181.15 180.53 160.0 160.0
No of Share 9.14 9.14 9.17 9.19 9.2 9.2
NW 237.55 670.48 834.61 986.5 1158.6 1337.0
EPS 9.0 12.9 16.6 17.4 20.5 21.2
BVPS 26.0 73.4 91.0 107.3 126.1 145.5
RoE-% 35% 17.6% 18.3% 16.2% 16.3% 14.6%
P/BV 5.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1
P/E 15.4 10.7 10.9 10.4 7.8 7.5
Valuation:
Margin-%
Expenses on Sales-%
Growth-% (YoY)
V- Escorts Ltd.
CMP 115
Target Price 175
Previous
Target Price
95
Upside 52%
Change from
Previous
84%
BSE Code 500495
NSE Symbol Tractor Volume
52wk Range
H/L
48/96
Mkt Capital
(Rs Crores)
1,402
Average Daily
Volume
225,953
Nifty 6,298
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute (7.5) 86.6 131.4
Rel. to Nifty (10.9) 77.3 121.9
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoter's 42.0 42.0 42.0 Outlook
FII's 9.4 12.3 12.1
DII's 2.1 4.7 5.4
Others's 46.5 41.0 40.6
Valuation
12
"Volume Growth Remains The Key; Retain Buy……."
ESCORTS
Share Holding Pattern-%
Stock Performance-%
Company update
Market Data
(Source: Company/Eastwind Research)
An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand. The rise in volumes for this quarter
can be attributed to a good monsoon. Tractor sales seem to have improved across all players,
indicating an overall improvement in demand. We believe that this segment will continue to
support the growth of the company. The adverse macroeconomic conditions, however, will see
the performance of its construction equipment segment and auto ancillary segment remaining
subdued. For these businesses, the firm is looking at premium product positioning and to deliver
a better than expected customer experience. In addition, it is looking at the export market as a
window of opportunity especially in the auto ancillary business.
The stock is currently trading at 6.5x FY14E EPS with a negative bias in case of construction
equipment segment due to adverse macroeconomic conditions . At current price of Rs. 117, the
stock is trading at P/E of 7.1 x for FY13E and 6.5 x the FY14E. Escorts could post EPS of Rs. 12.13
for FY14E and Rs. 12.98 for FY15E. An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand.
Tractor sales revival has enabled the company to register strong result. Escorts’ EBITDA margin
and bottom-line exceeded our expectations. Going forward, we remain positive on the
company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. Going forward, we remain positive on
the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve
further in FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to
growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-to-medium. Thus, We revise our estimates
upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our
rating on the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current
level with Revised price target of Rs. 175
Buy In February month company witnessed a good tractor volume number. In February 2014
company sold 4,627 tractors, growth of 7.5% against 4,305 tractors in February month of 2013.
Domestic sales in February 2014 up by 6.8% stood at 4,581 tractors as against 4,288 tractors in
February 2013. Export for the month of February 2014 stood at 46 tractors as that of 17
tractors in February 2013. Also during the last 17 months tractor sales grossed at 94553 units
as against 86337 units sold during corresponding period of 15 months last year. Going forward
management indicated that volume growth is to be in double digit and at arround 14%. The
management further indicated that margins should improve from the current level on the back
of improvement in the product mix, taking hikes in the prices, controlling inflation, rid of
inflation, as well as cutting down on the other costs.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
"Buy"5th Mar' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
13
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Escorts Ltd.
(Source: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore)
Key financials :
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A2014E 18
Months2015E 2016E
Performance
Revenue 2600 3353 4101 4049 7424 6186 7424
Other Income 53 27 56 48 75 60 72
Total Income 2653 3380 4157 4098 7499 6246 7496
EBITDA 160 220 168 190 438 402 557
EBIT 100 172 120 139 346 332 473
DEPRICIATION 60 48 48 50 92 70 84
INTREST COST 67 18 71 97 135 65 65
PBT 86 181 104 90 285 326 479
TAX 29 49 -15 19 77 88 129
Reported PAT 57 132 119 71 208 238 350
Dividend 11 11 13 13 13 20 20
EPS 6.3 12.5 11.3 6.7 19.7 22.6 33.1
DPS 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.9
Yeild %
EBITDA % 6.2% 6.6% 4.1% 4.7% 5.9% 6.5% 7.5%
PBT % 3.2% 5.4% 2.5% 2.2% 3.8% 5.2% 6.4%
NPM % 2.2% 3.9% 2.9% 1.7% 2.8% 3.8% 4.7%
Earning Yeild % 5.7% 5.8% 15.9% 10.6% 17.3% 19.8% 29.1%
Dividend Yeild % 1.1% 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7%
ROE % 4.0% 7.8% 6.7% 4.3% 11.4% 11.6% 14.7%
ROCE% 3.1% 6.3% 5.3% 3.2% 9.4% 9.8% 12.7%
Position
Net Worth 1425 1686 1784 1645 1834 2052 2382
Total Debt 402 405 486 554 390 375 375
Capital Employed 1827 2091 2270 2199 2224 2427 2757
No of Share 9 11 11 11 11 11 11
CMP 110 216 71 64 114 114 114
Valuation
Book Value 157.1 159.6 168.9 155.8 173.6 194.3 225.5
P/B 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5
Int/Coverage 1.5 9.5 1.7 1.4 2.6 5.1 7.3
P/E 17.5 17.3 6.3 9.5 5.8 5.1 3.4
Net Sales/CE 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 3.3 2.5 2.7
Net Sales/Equity 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 4.0 3.0 3.1
Infosys
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 4.5 30.4 53.1
Rel. to Nifty 0.8 21.6 49.4
Current 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 15.94 15.94 16.04
FII 40.65 39.93 39.55
DII 15.35 16.16 18.28
Others 28.06 27.97 26.13
Financials3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 13026 12965 0.47 10424 25.0
EBITDA 3258.9 2836.9 14.88 2677 21.7
PAT 2874.9 2406.9 19.44 2369 21.4
EBITDA Margin 25.0% 21.9% 310bps 25.7% (70bps)
PAT Margin 22.1% 18.6% 350bps 22.7% (60bps)
14
Previous Target Price 3620
Upside 3%
Change from Previous 8%
"Meritocracy to growth"
CMP 3793
Target Price 3910
Focus on meritocracy for client satisfaction as well as margin expansion;Company update BUY
1 year forward P/E
Rs, Crore
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
BSE Code 500209
NSE Symbol INFY
Share Holding Pattern-%
1240448
Nifty 6221
217810
Cost Rationalization: Company’s employee costs have ballooned very rapidly in the last
2-3 years. For example, on-site compensation was 36% of the overall revenue in FY11
and it went up to 46.3% in FY13, Overall employee cost on sales increased from
52%(FY09) to 56% (FY13). Company has hired a number of employees at higher salaries
outside India and employees are not adding efficient growth in productivity.
Improving utilization level: Comparing with other peers, its utilization level (excluding
trainees) declined from 80% in FY11 to 74% in FY13. Post NRN entry, company had
hiked offshore wage at the rate of 8% and overseas at 3%. We expect that company’s
management could decide for wage hike across onsite as well as offshore to enhance its
utilization rate in near term.
View and Valuation: Infosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with
revenue momentum kicking, and the NRN invisible hand in play. Further announcement
of strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, better deal win, consistent
client traction and revenue momentum would help the company to bridge the gap with
rivals such as TCS.
On an ongoing basis, Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion,
also operating metrics will turn into greenery from hay. Upgradation of earning
guidance by management hinted to join the party to enjoy with 12-14% earnings
growth for FY14E like other top bellwether. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x
FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target
price of Rs 3910 .
Market Data
In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level
exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in Infosys could be asked to
leave or may hand over layoff notices. Despite high salaries, some identified
employees are not contributing so much to improve productivity and efficiency of
operations. Already, the restructuring initiatives has taken place at the top of the
pyramid and now shifted to mid level of pyramid. Hence, its pink slip strategy indicates
to regain its growth and margin in near term.
Considering the strategy to build clients relation, execution of growth oriented policy
and combination of reduced onsite costs and higher utilization would be an optimistic
growth story despite recent hiccups of top management exit.
Key takeaways from recent webcast;
Restructuring at middle management: Mr. Murthy has taken initiatives to improve
cost efficiency and effective delivery system. The management has rewarded the top
performers and has given an opportunity to mediocre performers. Its PIP (performance
Improvement Program) followed by exam, and appraisal would dictate the level of
efficiency for mediocre, and the situation of involuntary attrition.
52wk Range H/L 3847/2190
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Stock Performance
Average Daily Volume
"BUY"4th March' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
15
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Infosys.
Employee cost on sales-%
Employee cost on sales at all time high
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Total Employee and additions,
Looking to bring in about maximum 6,000
off-campus offers, Infosys will hire up to
16,000 engineers next year.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
The Company's Utilization is likely to
keep inching up, which could lead to
margin expansion for a couple of
quarters and that is going to be a huge
positive for Infosys as a company.
Headcount Metrics: Its attrition increased to 18% from
17.3%(2QFY14) on LTM basis, however
on sequentially basis they have been able
to control its attrition. we hope that the
further salary hikes across the board will
bring down the attrition levels going
forward.
Utilization:
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Employee's 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14
Total Employees (Cons-) 151,151 153,761 155,629 156,688 157,263 160,227 158404
Net additions 1,157 2,610 1,868 1,059 575 2,964 -1823
Laterals hired 5,233 3,656 4,351 3,545 3,008 3,806 3,333
LTM Attrition (Stand-) 14.9% 15.0% 15.1% 16% 16.9% 17.3% 18.10%
16
Financials
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
■They are seeing confidence coming back from client’s metrics. However, they expect
[their] budgets only remain stable from last year. Clients are still focused on cost.
■ The Company is looking to bring in about maximum 6,000 off-campus offers starting
late January early February, so there is a lot of activity going on that is bringing people in,
engaging and developing.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Infosys.
Key facts from Management Interview;
■ Management upgraded its earning guidance for FY14E from 9-10% to 11.5-12%. This
guidnace means the company only has to achieve flat growth in the fourth quarter to
meet the projection.
■ With 85% of the company’s revenues coming from clients based in US and Europe, the
company should hope the current economic recovery in developed countries would help
its revenues.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Rs in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Sales, INR 22742 27501 33734 40352 50330 59631
Employee Cost 12085 14856 18340 22565 28185 33691
Other expenses 2792 3677 4671 6254 8556 10734
Total Expenses 14877 18533 23011 28819 36741 44425
EBITDA 7865 8968 10723 11533 13589 15206
Depreciation 905 854 928 1099 1371 1624
Other Income 982 1211 1904 2365 2567 3578
EBIT 7942 9325 11699 12799 14785 17160
Interest Cost 0 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 7942 9325 11699 12799 14785 17160
Tax 1681 2490 3367 3370 3992 4633
PAT 6261 6835 8332 9429 10793 12527
Growth-%
Sales 4.8% 20.9% 22.7% 19.6% 24.7% 18.5%
EBITDA 9.3% 14.0% 19.6% 7.6% 17.8% 11.9%
PAT 4.6% 9.2% 21.9% 13.2% 14.5% 16.1%
Margin -%
EBITDA 34.6% 32.6% 31.8% 28.6% 27.0% 25.5%
EBIT 34.9% 33.9% 34.7% 31.7% 29.4% 28.8%
PAT 27.5% 24.9% 24.7% 23.4% 21.4% 21.0%
Expenses on Sales-%
Employee Cost 53.1% 54.0% 54.4% 55.9% 56.0% 56.5%
Other expenses 12.3% 13.4% 13.8% 15.5% 17.0% 18.0%
Tax rate 21.2% 26.7% 28.8% 26.3% 27.0% 27.0%
Valuation
CMP 2615 2765 2865 2400 3793 3793
No of Share 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4
NW 23049.0 25976.0 31332.0 37994.0 45629.8 54797.5
EPS 109.1 119.0 145.1 164.2 188.0 218.2
BVPS 401.7 452.4 545.6 661.7 794.7 954.3
RoE-% 27.2% 26.3% 26.6% 24.8% 23.7% 22.9%
Dividen Payout ratio 25.1% 45.9% 24.0% 45.1% 23.0% 19.8%
P/BV 6.5 6.1 5.3 3.6 4.8 4.0
P/E 24.0 23.2 19.7 14.6 20.2 17.4
Powergrid..
95
118
NA
25%
NA
532898
49490
22270
6277
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 8.2 9.5 8.1
Rel. to Nifty 9.5 3.8 4.0
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 57.9 57.9 69.4
FII 25.4 19.4 14.7
DII 8.6 8.8 7.6
Others 8.2 13.9 8.3
View & Recommendation
Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14
Revenue 3685 9.4 -7.9 3369 3999
EBIDTA 3105 6.0 -8.4 2930 3389
Net Profit 988 -8.5 -16.9 1080 1189
EBIDTA% 84 -3.1 -0.6 87 85
NPM% 27 -16.3 -9.8 32 30(In Crs)
17
The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) issued the final tariff regulations for
the period FY15-19 – these regulations form the basis of Power Grid’s earnings (regulated
returns) from its core transmission business over the next five years.The Key take aways
of these Regulations are Normative TAF (NATAF) for incentives lowered; no incentive for
TAF >99.75% .Normative O&M charges raised (vs. draft), but still below FY14 levels.
BSE Code
POWERGRIDNSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
116/87
Overall revenues increased 9.6% YoY to Rs.3685 crore due to lower than anticipated
capitalisation (Rs.3050 crore) in Q3FY14 . Income increased 6.5%, 10.0% and 121.9% YoY
in transmission, telecom and consultancy income, respectively. Other income declined
9.7% YoY to Rs.116 crore as cash was deployed across various upcoming projects.
Margins declined 336 bps YoY to 87.4% due to 55.7% YoY rise in transmission & other
expenses to Rs.333 crore. Tax expenses increased 7.5% YoY to Rs. 399 crore. Q3FY13
included a one-time income of Rs.167 crore as wage revision benefit. Adjusting the same,
PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs.1,043 crore.
Upside
Change from Previous
Nifty
Update
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Stock Performance-%
Share Holding Pattern-%
1 yr Forward P/B
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x
BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business model with RoE (16%), strong growth
visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target
price of Rs.118.
Power Grid's Raichur-Solapur line has been connected to national grid. Management Says
there were four trippings in the first week. Two were to increase reliability and were
done intentionally, and the other two were because of a few glitches. For the last month
there has been no tripping.
With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will
drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our estimates we maintain a positive fundamental
outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of
further equity dilution is reduced
Capitalisation of assets remains on track. Till Jan end the company has capitalised Rs
118bn of assets which is 70% of our full year estimate. Since last two months of the year
usually account for the bulk of yearly commissioning we are confident that the co. will meet
our estimate of Rs 170bn for FY14.
Strong Capitalization : Power Grid’s adjusted PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs. 1,043 crore
in Q3FY14 While asset capitalisation was below estimate Rs. 3050 crore, PGCIL
commissioned another Rs. 3450 crore in January 2014 taking overall capitalisation to Rs.
13000 crore YTDFY14.
BUY
Market Data
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
"Buy"3rd march' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Narnolia Securities Ltd402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph
033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
email: [email protected],
website : www.narnolia.com
Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of
the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any
action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly
available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that
past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of
any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to
assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates
and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or
otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and
other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned
in this report/message.