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Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

Date post: 18-Jan-2015
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Narnolia Securities Limited initiated Swaraj Engines Ltd stock CMP of INR 61, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of Rs. 61.7 We advice to book profit on the stock and BUY rating to the stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD with a target price of Rs. 148
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18
IEA-Equity Strategy 3th Mar 2014 The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business model with RoE (16%), strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of Rs.118.With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our estimates we maintain a positive fundamental outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of further equity dilution is reduced . ............................................................ (Page : 17) Infosys : "Meritocracy to growth" "BUY" 4th Mar 2014 In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in Infosys could be asked to leave or may hand over layoff notices. Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion, also operating metrics will turn into greenery from hay. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3910 . ............................................................... ( Page : 14-16) 6th March, 2014 Edition : 219 EROSMEDIA :"Moving to Blockbuster" "BUY" The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2 times of its FY15E book value. However, If the company if things will going positively we could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but we don't believe buyers would be willing to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral given the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target to Rs. 120. ................................................................ ( Page : 5-6) Powergrid : "BUY" Escorts Ltd: "Volume Growth Remains The Key;Retain Buy" "BUY" 5th Mar 2014 Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve further in FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-to- medium. Thus, We revise our estimates upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our rating on the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current level with Revised price target of Rs. 175 ........................................................................ ( Page : 12-13) 5th Mar 2014 Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than 8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages. Likewise, company is going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April, 2014. Its well positioned to monetize rich content of library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. .......................................... ( Page :9-11) SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd : "BOOK PROFIT" 6th Mar 2014 In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter have given a premium of 40 per cent over its recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels. Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own past historical data . ...................................................................... ( Page : 7-8) Hindustan Zinc LTD : Good gains ahead "BUY" 6th Mar 2014 Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being an integrated & dominant player in the domestic industry with low cost of production, the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in one year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-. ....................................................... ( Page : 2-4) Voltas Ltd : Downgrade to "Neutral"……. "NEUTRAL" 6th Mar 2014 Narnolia Securities Ltd, India Equity Analytics Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities
Transcript
Page 1: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

IEA-Equity

Strategy

3th Mar 2014

The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business

model with RoE (16%), strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of

Rs.118.With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our

estimates we maintain a positive fundamental outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of further

equity dilution is reduced . ............................................................ (Page : 17)

Infosys : "Meritocracy to growth" "BUY" 4th Mar 2014

In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in

Infosys could be asked to leave or may hand over layoff notices. Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion, also operating

metrics will turn into greenery from hay. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a

target price of target price of Rs 3910 . ............................................................... ( Page : 14-16)

6th March, 2014

Edition : 219

EROSMEDIA :"Moving to Blockbuster" "BUY"

The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2

times of its FY15E book value. However, If the company if things will going positively we could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but

we don't believe buyers would be willing to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral given

the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target to Rs. 120. ................................................................ (

Page : 5-6)

Powergrid : "BUY"

Escorts Ltd: "Volume Growth Remains The Key;Retain Buy" "BUY" 5th Mar 2014

Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve further in

FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-to-

medium. Thus, We revise our estimates upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our rating on

the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current level with Revised price target of Rs. 175

........................................................................ ( Page : 12-13)

5th Mar 2014

Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than 8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages.

Likewise, company is going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April, 2014. Its well positioned to monetize rich

content of library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. .......................................... ( Page :9-11)

SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd : "BOOK PROFIT" 6th Mar 2014

In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter

have given a premium of 40 per cent over its recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental

changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels. Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a

P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own past historical data .

...................................................................... ( Page : 7-8)

Hindustan Zinc LTD : Good gains ahead "BUY" 6th Mar 2014

Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet

and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being an integrated & dominant

player in the domestic industry with low cost of production, the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in

one year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our

positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-. ....................................................... ( Page : 2-4)

Voltas Ltd : Downgrade to "Neutral"……. "NEUTRAL" 6th Mar 2014

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

India Equity AnalyticsDaily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

Page 2: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

Hindustan Zinc LTD.

123

148

148

20%

0%

500188

51929

5192

6329

Robust Q3FY14 Performance :1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 4.3 -1.7 -3.4

Rel. to Nifty 0.0 9.2 11.3

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 64.9 64.9 64.9

FII 1.8 1.8 1.5

DII 31.4 31.4 31.5

Others 1.8 1.8 2.1

Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14

Net Revenue 3450 8.6 -9.8 3178 3826

EBITDA 1824 22.1 -3.1 1494 1883

Depriciation 210 18.6 12.9 177 186

Tax 305 50.2 20.1 203 254

PAT 1723 6.8 5.1 1613 1640(In Crs)

2

Good gains ahead

Previous Target Price

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%

1 yr Forward P/B

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

Nifty

BUY

Market Data

Average Daily Volume (Nos.)

BSE Code

HINDZINCNSE Symbol

52wk Range H/L

CMP

Target Price

Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 performance was inline to our estimates on the back of

healthy zinc sales volumes and higher metal premiums. Total operating income for

Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY but lower by 3.1% QoQ. Total zinc

sales in Q3FY14 came in at 196,000 tonne, up 17% YoY and 2% QoQ . The company

realised premium on metal sales amounting to $241/tonne for zinc (Zn) & $305/tonne for

lead (Pb) . Lead sales volume for the quarter stood at 23500 tonnes (lower by 24% QoQ

and 22% YoY), while silver sales volumes stood at 78500 kg (lower by 31% YoY and 14%

QoQ) . EBITDA came in at Rs.1823.8 crore and inline to our estimate of Rs. 1829.6 crore.

Subsequently, net profit stood at Rs. 1722.7 crore .

Valuation & Recommendation

Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive

outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over

production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being

an integrated & dominant player in the domestic industry with low cost of production,

the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in one

year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant

growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY

rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-.

Zinc market was bearish during last consecutive years having surplus in inventory, but

now sentiment is slowly turning positive showing some uptrends in Zinc LME prices.

Visible inventories on the London Metals Exchange, as well as on the Shanghai Futures

Exchange, are down about 30% over the last year. And zinc demand is increasing steadily.

We believe Zinc price will be the core fundamental behind the Hindustan zinc’s bull story

in the coming years. We see a improving volume of production through FY15.More So

Govt. The attorney-general’s clearance for the Centre’s proposal to divest its residual

stake in Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) lifted the Street’s mood. Again the board delayed this

process and guided investors that disinvestment of government's remaining stake in

Hindustan Zinc will happen next fiscal year. Stake sale in HZL again seems to be back

burner now. We also see gradual and sustainable recovery in global macro Scenario

which supports a positive cycle in industrial metals. So, we believe there exists a strong

case for significant earnings estimate for Hind Zinc in coming months.

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

142/94

Upside

Change from Previous

Result Update

"BUY"6th March' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Page 3: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

Lower Production Guideline LME Price/Ton

Key Concerns

A.

B.

C.LME Price/Ton

D.

E.

Key Triggers for Growth

A. Company is tracking on 95% capacity utilization.

B.

C.

D. LME Price/Ton

E.

F.

G.

H. Zinc premium reaches six year high as inventories shrink

I. Fees that zinc smelter charge to refine the metat that probably to increase 5%.

3

Hindustan Zinc LTD.

Volatile Desel Price and high Sulphuric acid price affecting the company,s PAT adversly.

A reason to wait and watch , is since the government is looking at auction, how much

will Vedanta be able to garner and what price it is willing to pay is not known.

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

HZL has marginally downward revised its mined metal production guidance for FY14 from

950,000 tonnes earlier to 900,000 tonnes. This reflects slower-than-expected ramp up of

underground mining projects and some changes in mining sequence wherein preference

has been given to primary mine development during this period.

HZL’s revenues are directly linked with the global market for products essentially, Zinc

and Lead which are priced with reference to LME prices and Silver to LBMA (London

Bullion Metal Association) prices.

Lower than expected demand by galvanizing industries for zinc and industrial batteries,

car batteries industries for lead would affect the company estimates.

Disruptions in mining due to equipment failures, unexpected maintenance problems ,

non-availability of raw materials of appropriate price, quantity and quality for energy

requirements, disruptions to or increased cost of transport services or strikes and

industrial actions or disputes.

Captive plants enjoy the lower Tax rate and company enjoys zero tax from tax free

geographycal areas.

The Rampura Agucha underground mine project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven

downward from the surface) and commercial production already ramp up in Q3 and will

in Q4 of FY14 . The Kayad mine project will also commence commercial production in

the current fiscal year.

A cash-rich balance sheet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL

an attractive bet at the current price levels.

Disinvestment of government's remaining stake in Hindustan Zinc and Bharat

Aluminium (Balco) will happen next fiscal year .

In the past Vedanta Group has said it wanted majority control when Vedanta had earlier

offered Rs 149 a share . If this is any benchmark,then investors will stand to gain.

Smelting Plants are improvised and management is confident that the smelting plants

will maintain their stance for the coming quarters also.

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Jan

-13

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Silver(rs/ounce)

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000

Jan

-13

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Lead

90000

95000

100000

105000

110000

115000

120000

125000

Jan

-13

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Zinc

Page 4: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E

9912 11405 12700 13577

979 1543 2032 1787

10891 12948 14732 15364

1023 1228 1070 1291

492 568 696 707

4417 5336 6218 6484

5496 6069 6482 7093

475 611 647 718

19 14 29 37

1059 1419 921 1097

4900 5526 6899 6967

22.0 21.0 21.0 19.0

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

423 845 845 845

17701 21688 26036 31431

18124 22533 26881 32276

478 475 410 484

340 567 504 825

20238 25053 29485 35465

109 109 47 10

6071 7145 8466 8474

1113 875 445 1082

361 594 876 1898

452 762 798 1111

152 209 332 403

928 5633 5255 6942

96 158 233 373

20238 25053 29485 35465

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

3.2 2.2 2.1 1.7

95.6 11.6 13.1 16.3

1.9 2.1 2.9 3.2

6.0 4.8 3.6 3.8

0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

4001 4483 4553 4935

77 -212 -61 -183

4077 4272 4492 4752

-3881 -3658 -3499 -3234

-187 -363 -1242 -1257

8 250 -248 262

4

Short-term loans and advances

Total Assets

P/B

EPS

RATIOS

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

EBIDTA & Margin :

Inventories

Trade receivables

Cash and bank balances

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

CASH FLOWS

Debtor to Turnover%

Cash From Investment

Cash from Finance

Net Cash Flow during year

Creditors to Turnover%

Inventories to Turnover%

Cash from Operation

Changes In Working Capital

Net Cash From Operation

Total liabilities

Intangibles

Tangible assets

Capital work-in-progress

Long-term loans and advances

ZinC Productions:

Expenditure

Trade payables

Short-term provisions

B/S PERFORMANCE

Share capital

Depriciation

PAT

ROE%

Hindustan Zinc LTD.

Reserve & Surplus

Total equity

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

Interest Cost

Net tax expense / (benefit)

Repairs

EBITDA

P/L PERFORMANCE

Net Revenue from Operation

Other Income

Total Income

Power, fuel & water

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

43 43 41

49

42

49 47

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500EBIDTA

EBIDTA %

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Zinc Production (tons)

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500 NetRevenuefromOperation

RevenueGrowth

Page 5: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

Voltas Ltd.

CMP 139

Target Price 125

Previous

Target Price

95

Upside -10%

Change from

Previous

32%

BSE Code 500575

NSE Symbol VOLTAS

52wk Range

H/L

65/143

Mkt Capital

(Rs Crores)

4,609

Nifty 6,329

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 28.5 75.2 84.2

Rel. to Nifty 23.1 64.0 72.9

3QFY14 2QFY13 1QFY14

Promoters 30.3 30.2 30.2

FII 15.2 14.5 18.1

DII 29.8 29.8 25.6

Others 24.8 25.6 26.1

5

Management comment on above JV :

Downgrade to "Neutral"…….

What New...???

Market Data

Company update NeutralVoltas Ltd has proposed to form a new joint venture (JV) company named –“ Voltas Water

Solutions” which will have equal capital contribution from “Voltas” and “Dow Chemical Pacific”

(Singapore) Pte (Dow). This JV company will market and distribute standard packaged Water

Treatment Systems and Waste Water Treatment Systems of capacity up to 20 m 3/hour, to

residential and commercial complexes and light industrial markets in the Indian subcontinent.

The entity's operations would include designing, procuring, testing, marketing, selling and

servicing of such standard water treatment systems and waste water treatment systems.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

1 yr Forward P/B

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%About Dow Group :

Dow Chemical Pacific (Singapore) Pte Ltd was established in 1992. Catering to customers in Asia

Pacific, particularly South East Asia, Dow Group combines the power of science and technology to

passionately innovate what is essential to human progress. The company is driving innovations

that extract value from the Intersection of chemical, physical and biological sciences to help

address many of the world's most challenging problems such as the need for clean water, clean

energy generation and conservation, and increasing agricultural productivity. The company's

integrated, market-driven, industry-leading portfolio of specialty chemical, advanced materials,

agrosciences and plastics businesses delivers a broad range of technology-based products and

solutions to customers in high growth sectors such as packaging, electronics, water, coatings and

agriculture.Valuation :

The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is

not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2 times of its FY15E book value. We estimate that at

the lower end of management's guidance this translates into a 12.1%/12.7% RoE forFY14/15E.

We believe management is attempting to be conservative regarding the guidance for FY14 &

FY15, but even with a 60/90 bps improvement in the operating margin the RoE would be

approximately 12.1%/12.7% for FY14/15E , which we believes would translate into a P/B multiple

of approximately 2.0x – to 2.2x. This translates to a 12 month price target of approximately Rs.

120 based on our FY14E BVPS of Rs. 59. However, If the company if things will going positively we

could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but we don't believe buyers would be willing

to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral

given the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target

to Rs. 120.”

Water has been identified as a key focus area for the Tata group. With its unrivalled know-how

and technological leadership in the water treatment space, the partnership, will help Voltas

Water Solutions cater to the growing water treatment requirements of the Indian subcontinent.

They further believe that partnership will simultaneously leverage the brand and distribution

strength of Voltas, along with the technology prowess of the water and process solutions division

of the Dow Group.

Our View on said JV :

In today scenario major Water and Waste Water Treatment market is mostly and largely catered

by unorganized players. And the market which is targeted by this new joint venture will provide a

branded and differentiated product line in the sector, with a focus on quality and service

delivery.

Average Daily Vol. (Nos.) 624,126

"Neutral"6th Mar' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 6: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

6

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Ammount in crore

INR in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Voltas Ltd.

Key financials :

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Ammount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Ammount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 4326 4757 5191 5186 5531 5320 5852

Other Income 94 78 58 98 90 84 100

Total Income 4420 4836 5250 5284 5621 5404 5952

EBITDA 283 460 463 336 245 261 296

EBIT 262 438 442 303 217 237 268

DEPRICIATION 21 21 21 34 28 24 28

INTREST COST 11 10 17 31 40 35 42

PBT 372 532 524 219 280 286 326

TAX 117 147 172 57 73 74 85

Extra Oridiniary Items 26 25 40 -150 12 0 0

Reported PAT 255 385 352 162 207 211 241

Dividend (INR) 73 73 73 73 73 54 54

DPS 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 61.5 61.5

EPS 7.7 11.6 10.6 4.9 6.3 6.4 7.3

Yeild %

EBITDA % 6.5% 9.7% 8.9% 6.5% 4.4% 4.9% 5.1%

NPM % 5.8% 8.0% 6.7% 3.1% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0%

Earning Yeild % 16.2% 6.5% 6.2% 4.4% 8.3% 4.4% 5.0%

Dividend Yeild % 4.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 2.9% 42.4% 42.4%

ROE % 32.2% 35.4% 25.8% 11.0% 12.7% 11.9% 12.3%

ROCE% 27.3% 35.2% 24.6% 11.4% 13.1% 12.3% 13.0%

Position

Net Worth 790 1085 1362 1478 1626 1775 1955

Total Debt 181 35 137 223 261 225 225

Capital Employed 971 1120 1498 1701 1887 2000 2180

No of Share (Adj) 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

CMP 48 178 172 112 75 145 145

Valuation

Book Value 23.9 32.8 41.2 44.7 49.1 53.7 59.1

P/B 2.0 5.4 4.2 2.5 1.5 2.7 2.5

Int/Coverage 23.8 44.5 26.7 9.6 5.5 6.8 6.4

P/E 6.2 15.3 16.1 22.9 12.1 22.7 19.9

Page 7: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

V- SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.

CMP 648

Target Price 648

600

Upside 0%

7%

BSE Code 500407

NSE Symbol

801

1,015

Nifty 6,329

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 5.3 47.8 63.4

Rel. to Nifty (0.2) 36.6 52.0

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 50.6 50.6 50.6

FII 1.9 1.9 1.5

DII 10.6 10.4 10.6

Others 36.9 37.1 37.3

7

Recommendation History

Valuation

At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of

Rs. 61.7 by 10.5x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of

26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and

capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Furthermore, despite the capex of Rs. 38 crore, the

company has strong cash flows and the company is debt free. Also, Company assurance of 30-

60% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

1 yr Forward P/B

Share Holding Pattern-%

Stock Performance-%

Average Daily Volume

Moreover, we feel that caution is necessary over the recent robust financial as well as

operational performance that the company has delivered over the past year. With 90 per cent of

its turnover generated through parent company, the revenue stream also seems concentrated. In

conclusion, looking at the above mentioned woes, we advise readers to book profits in the

counter at its current levels and fresh buying may be considered at cheaper levels of around Rs.

500-550 a share.

Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised

FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own

past historical data

" Book Profits While The Going Is Good…. "

Book ProfitCompany update

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

52wk Range H/L

Previous Target Price

SWARAJENG

Change from Previous

Market Data

382/672

In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view

to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter have given a premium of 40 per cent over its

recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental

changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels.

We are quite positive on the Swaraj Engines, owing to its strong tractor volume growth, capacity

expansion to 1,05,000 engines pa from 75,000 of current level, softening of commodity prices

and company presence in all HP segments. We are upbeat on the stock on the account of core

business momentum remains robust with healthy EPS growth, cash flow generation and high

RoE.

"Book Profit"6th Mar' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Date Report Type CMP Target PriceChange From

Previous in %

25th April' 13 Company Update 460 515 NA

17th June' 13 Company Update 511 535 3.9%

10th July' 13 Company Update 533 535 0.0%

1st Aug' 13 Result Update 484 535 0.0%

26th Nov' 13 Result Update 610 600 12.1%

3rd Feb' 14 Result Update 602 648 8.0%

Page 8: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

9

8

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Ammount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)

SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.

Key financials :

(Source: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 208 282 361 449 479 600 680

Other Income 5 10 8 12 15 18 20

Total Income 213 292 369 461 494 618 700

EBITDA 32 50 61 69 71 89 102

EBIT 27 45 56 65 64 80 91

DEPRICIATION 5 5 4 4 7 9 11

INTREST COST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PBT 32 55 64 77 79 98 111

TAX 11 17 20 24 24 30 34

Reported PAT 21 37 44 53 55 67 77

Dividend 7 12 14 19 48 24 30

EPS 17.2 30.1 35.4 42.5 44.6 54.2 61.7

DPS 5.9 9.3 11.6 15.1 38.4 19.3 24.2

Yeild %

EBITDA % 15.3% 17.6% 16.8% 15.5% 14.9% 14.8% 15.0%

PBT % 15.5% 19.4% 17.8% 17.2% 16.6% 16.3% 16.3%

NPM % 10.2% 13.2% 12.2% 11.8% 11.6% 11.2% 11.3%

Earning Yeild % 8.0% 31.6% 12.2% 9.9% 11.3% 8.4% 9.5%

Dividend Yeild % 2.7% 9.8% 4.0% 3.5% 9.7% 3.0% 3.7%

ROE % 21.9% 30.4% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6% 28.5% 26.6%

ROCE% 21.9% 30.4% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6% 28.5% 26.6%

Position

Net Worth 97 123 152 186 194 236 287

No of Share 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

CMP 214 95 290 429 395 648 648

Valuation

Book Value 78.3 98.8 122.6 150.0 156.0 190.2 231.5

P/B 2.7 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.4 2.8

P/E 3.5 5.3 5.6 5.1 6.8 12.0 10.5

Net Sales/Equity 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4

Page 9: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

EROSMEDIA

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 13.1 -7.3 -

Rel. to Nifty 8.2 -17.4 -

Current 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 74.88 74.88 74.88

FII 12.45 12.16 11.35

DII 1.56 1.87 2.95

Others 11.11 11.09 10.82

Financials

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 432.68 201 115.2 369.3 17.2

EBITDA 135.6 51.2 165.0 90.6 49.6

PAT 92.0 37.0 148.8 65.2 41.1

EBITDA Margin 31.3% 25.4% 590bps 24.5% 680bps

PAT Margin 21.3% 18.4% 290bps 17.7% 360bps

9

Robust 3QFY14 Result: Company reported better numbers with sales growth of

17% (YoY) led by huge spurt in catalogue monetization, which increase by approx-

75% (YoY). Its PAT grew by 41%(YoY).

View and Valuation: Management is very excited to invest into different

medium like internet and launching channels to generate revenue. Company’s

optimistic stance towards maintaining margins, strong movies slate and very low

valuation makes attractive. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 1.1 P/BVx FY15.

We initiate “BUY” with a target price of Rs 200.

During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 680bps (YoY) to 31.3%

because of reduction in operational expenses and employee expenses.

Management expects to see EBITDA margin at 25% in FY14E and FY15E than 20-

22% range of margin in previous 4 years.

52wk Range H/L 195/107

1467Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

Market DataBSE Code 533261

NSE Symbol EROSMEDIA

Average Daily Volume 26241

-

Upside 25%

Change from Previous

"Moving to Blockbuster"

Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than

8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages. Likewise, company is

going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April,

2014. Apart from this, company is expected to release Dishkiyaaoon, Shadi Ke

Side Effect, Action Jackson, Tanu weds Manu season 2, Sarkar3, Chalo China,

NH-10, Dekho Magar Pyaar Se, Happy Ending and Rana in FY15E.

It has largest Indian content library of films with 1100+ films and digital rights

to an additional 700 films. Its well positioned to monetize rich content of

library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. Considering diversified and sustainable Business Model along with well

positioned to monetize rich content of its library and block buster success ratio

of movies (out of the top 10 grossing films in recent years, 3 are from Eros.)

make us positive view on the stock.About Company: Eros International Media (EROS) is one of the largest films co-

production and distribution company in India and overseas, engage with pre-

sales of overseas rights, music rights and broadcasting rights. It recovers 35-40%

of its costs by selling movie rights to channels, recovers another 35-40% from

selling its overseas rights to overseas entities. Similarly, it gets 10-15% of the

cost of movies by selling music rights .

Buy

P/BV-1 year forward

Rs, Crore

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Recent initiatives: Eros has struck new deals during the period with MSM

Satellite Singapore private ltd for broadcast of films on Sony as well as with

Viacom18 media for broadcast films on colours.Recently Eros International media has launched two new movie channels HBO

DEFINED and HBO HITS, which will reduce its dependence on highly

unpredictable revenue streams going forward.

Share Holding Pattern-%

CMP 160

Target Price 200

Initiating Report

Previous Target Price

Nifty 6298

Stock Performance

"BUY"5th March' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 10: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

10

EROSMEDIA

Margin-%

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

1. Piracy is the key concern for the

company. Indian film industry loses

approx. Rs.2000 cr. every year due to

piracy (source: FICCI-KPMG report 2009).

Key Concerns:

2. Lower consumer discretionary demand.

3. Difficult to predict fate of films.

Sales and Sales growth(%)(yoy)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Upcoming Movies:

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Date of Release Upcoming movies Director Starcast

28-Feb-14 Shaadi Ke Side Effects Saket Chaudhary Farhan Akhtar,Vidya Balan

21-Mar-14 Dishkiyaaoon Sanmjit Singh Talwar Sunny Deol, Harman Baweja

28-Mar-14 Happy Ending Raj and DK Saif Ali Khan, Ileana D'Cruz

11-Apr-14 Kochadaiiyaan Soundarya Ashwin Rajnikanth, Deepika Padukone

6-Jun-14 Action Jackson Prabhu Deva Ajay Devgn, Sonakshi Sinha

12-Sep-14 NH-10 Navdeep singh Anushka sharma,Neil bhoopalam

Tanu Weds Manu Season 2 Anand Rai R.Madhavan,Kangana Ranaut

R. Balki Untitled R.Balki Amitabh Bachchan, Dhanush

Aankheen 2 Apoorva Lakhia Abhishek Bachchan

Illuminati Untitled Arif Ali Armaan Jain

Dekh Tamasha Dekh Feroz Abbas Khan Satish Kaushik and Others

Purani Jeans Tanushree Basu Aditya Seal

Chalo china Shashank Ghosh Vinay Pathak, Lara Dutta

FY15E

Q2FY15

Q1FY15

Q4FY14E

Page 11: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

1.       Catalogue monetization will continue to grow strong in the upcoming quarters.

2.       Company will monetize entire portfolio across different platforms

3.       Catalogue monetization will increase from 13%-14% to 20-25% of overall revenue in coming 3 to 4 years.

4.       Management is looking for more and more free cash flows going forward.

5.       Q4 will be very positive and going forward FY15E will also be very positive for the company.

6

11

EROSMEDIA

Management Guidance:

Management is very confident about its performance going forward and expects EBITDA margin to be around 25% in

FY14E and FY15E.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Financials;

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Rs,cr FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Sales 640.88 706.97 943.88 1067.95 1110.8 1229.9

RM Cost(Operatinal expenses) 480.33 495.13 665.45 765.78 766.5 860.9

WIP 0 0.84 -2.92 -2.55 -2.7 -2.9

Employee Cost 19.7 25.28 22.55 27.29 29.4 36.9

Other expenses 27.81 29.57 42.96 47.47 29.4 36.9

Total expenses 527.84 550.82 728.04 837.99 822.7 931.8

EBITDA 113.04 156.15 215.84 229.96 288.1 298.1

Depreciation and Amortisation 4.39 3.82 6 6.45 7.7 9.2

Other Income 12.62 8.95 19.3 6.4 11.1 12.3

EBIT 108.65 152.33 209.84 223.51 280.4 288.9

Interest 9.02 9.39 13.44 9.22 25.4 26.0

PBT 112.25 151.89 215.7 220.69 266.2 275.2

Tax Exp 29.63 33.67 63.14 61.19 77.7 80.4

PAT 82.62 118.22 152.56 159.5 188.5 194.8

Sales 16.9% 10.3% 33.5% 13.1% 4.0% 10.7%

EBITDA 52.8% 38.1% 38.2% 6.5% 25.3% 3.5%

PAT 72.1% 43.1% 29.0% 4.5% 18.2% 3.4%

RM Cost 74.9% 70.0% 70.5% 71.7% 69.0% 70.0%

Employee Cost 3.1% 3.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0%

Other expenses 4.3% 4.2% 4.6% 4.4% 2.7% 3.0%

Tax rate 4.6% 4.8% 6.7% 5.7% 7.0% 6.5%

EBITDA 17.6% 22.1% 22.9% 21.5% 25.9% 24.2%

EBIT 17.0% 21.5% 22.2% 20.9% 25.2% 23.5%

PAT 12.9% 16.7% 16.2% 14.9% 17.0% 15.8%

CMP 138.9 138.9 181.15 180.53 160.0 160.0

No of Share 9.14 9.14 9.17 9.19 9.2 9.2

NW 237.55 670.48 834.61 986.5 1158.6 1337.0

EPS 9.0 12.9 16.6 17.4 20.5 21.2

BVPS 26.0 73.4 91.0 107.3 126.1 145.5

RoE-% 35% 17.6% 18.3% 16.2% 16.3% 14.6%

P/BV 5.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1

P/E 15.4 10.7 10.9 10.4 7.8 7.5

Valuation:

Margin-%

Expenses on Sales-%

Growth-% (YoY)

Page 12: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

V- Escorts Ltd.

CMP 115

Target Price 175

Previous

Target Price

95

Upside 52%

Change from

Previous

84%

BSE Code 500495

NSE Symbol Tractor Volume

52wk Range

H/L

48/96

Mkt Capital

(Rs Crores)

1,402

Average Daily

Volume

225,953

Nifty 6,298

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute (7.5) 86.6 131.4

Rel. to Nifty (10.9) 77.3 121.9

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoter's 42.0 42.0 42.0 Outlook

FII's 9.4 12.3 12.1

DII's 2.1 4.7 5.4

Others's 46.5 41.0 40.6

Valuation

12

"Volume Growth Remains The Key; Retain Buy……."

ESCORTS

Share Holding Pattern-%

Stock Performance-%

Company update

Market Data

(Source: Company/Eastwind Research)

An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand. The rise in volumes for this quarter

can be attributed to a good monsoon. Tractor sales seem to have improved across all players,

indicating an overall improvement in demand. We believe that this segment will continue to

support the growth of the company. The adverse macroeconomic conditions, however, will see

the performance of its construction equipment segment and auto ancillary segment remaining

subdued. For these businesses, the firm is looking at premium product positioning and to deliver

a better than expected customer experience. In addition, it is looking at the export market as a

window of opportunity especially in the auto ancillary business.

The stock is currently trading at 6.5x FY14E EPS with a negative bias in case of construction

equipment segment due to adverse macroeconomic conditions . At current price of Rs. 117, the

stock is trading at P/E of 7.1 x for FY13E and 6.5 x the FY14E. Escorts could post EPS of Rs. 12.13

for FY14E and Rs. 12.98 for FY15E. An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand.

Tractor sales revival has enabled the company to register strong result. Escorts’ EBITDA margin

and bottom-line exceeded our expectations. Going forward, we remain positive on the

company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. Going forward, we remain positive on

the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve

further in FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to

growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-to-medium. Thus, We revise our estimates

upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our

rating on the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current

level with Revised price target of Rs. 175

Buy In February month company witnessed a good tractor volume number. In February 2014

company sold 4,627 tractors, growth of 7.5% against 4,305 tractors in February month of 2013.

Domestic sales in February 2014 up by 6.8% stood at 4,581 tractors as against 4,288 tractors in

February 2013. Export for the month of February 2014 stood at 46 tractors as that of 17

tractors in February 2013. Also during the last 17 months tractor sales grossed at 94553 units

as against 86337 units sold during corresponding period of 15 months last year. Going forward

management indicated that volume growth is to be in double digit and at arround 14%. The

management further indicated that margins should improve from the current level on the back

of improvement in the product mix, taking hikes in the prices, controlling inflation, rid of

inflation, as well as cutting down on the other costs.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

"Buy"5th Mar' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 13: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

13

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Escorts Ltd.

(Source: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore)

Key financials :

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A2014E 18

Months2015E 2016E

Performance

Revenue 2600 3353 4101 4049 7424 6186 7424

Other Income 53 27 56 48 75 60 72

Total Income 2653 3380 4157 4098 7499 6246 7496

EBITDA 160 220 168 190 438 402 557

EBIT 100 172 120 139 346 332 473

DEPRICIATION 60 48 48 50 92 70 84

INTREST COST 67 18 71 97 135 65 65

PBT 86 181 104 90 285 326 479

TAX 29 49 -15 19 77 88 129

Reported PAT 57 132 119 71 208 238 350

Dividend 11 11 13 13 13 20 20

EPS 6.3 12.5 11.3 6.7 19.7 22.6 33.1

DPS 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.9

Yeild %

EBITDA % 6.2% 6.6% 4.1% 4.7% 5.9% 6.5% 7.5%

PBT % 3.2% 5.4% 2.5% 2.2% 3.8% 5.2% 6.4%

NPM % 2.2% 3.9% 2.9% 1.7% 2.8% 3.8% 4.7%

Earning Yeild % 5.7% 5.8% 15.9% 10.6% 17.3% 19.8% 29.1%

Dividend Yeild % 1.1% 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7%

ROE % 4.0% 7.8% 6.7% 4.3% 11.4% 11.6% 14.7%

ROCE% 3.1% 6.3% 5.3% 3.2% 9.4% 9.8% 12.7%

Position

Net Worth 1425 1686 1784 1645 1834 2052 2382

Total Debt 402 405 486 554 390 375 375

Capital Employed 1827 2091 2270 2199 2224 2427 2757

No of Share 9 11 11 11 11 11 11

CMP 110 216 71 64 114 114 114

Valuation

Book Value 157.1 159.6 168.9 155.8 173.6 194.3 225.5

P/B 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5

Int/Coverage 1.5 9.5 1.7 1.4 2.6 5.1 7.3

P/E 17.5 17.3 6.3 9.5 5.8 5.1 3.4

Net Sales/CE 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 3.3 2.5 2.7

Net Sales/Equity 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 4.0 3.0 3.1

Page 14: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

Infosys

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 4.5 30.4 53.1

Rel. to Nifty 0.8 21.6 49.4

Current 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 15.94 15.94 16.04

FII 40.65 39.93 39.55

DII 15.35 16.16 18.28

Others 28.06 27.97 26.13

Financials3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 13026 12965 0.47 10424 25.0

EBITDA 3258.9 2836.9 14.88 2677 21.7

PAT 2874.9 2406.9 19.44 2369 21.4

EBITDA Margin 25.0% 21.9% 310bps 25.7% (70bps)

PAT Margin 22.1% 18.6% 350bps 22.7% (60bps)

14

Previous Target Price 3620

Upside 3%

Change from Previous 8%

"Meritocracy to growth"

CMP 3793

Target Price 3910

Focus on meritocracy for client satisfaction as well as margin expansion;Company update BUY

1 year forward P/E

Rs, Crore

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

BSE Code 500209

NSE Symbol INFY

Share Holding Pattern-%

1240448

Nifty 6221

217810

Cost Rationalization: Company’s employee costs have ballooned very rapidly in the last

2-3 years. For example, on-site compensation was 36% of the overall revenue in FY11

and it went up to 46.3% in FY13, Overall employee cost on sales increased from

52%(FY09) to 56% (FY13). Company has hired a number of employees at higher salaries

outside India and employees are not adding efficient growth in productivity.

Improving utilization level: Comparing with other peers, its utilization level (excluding

trainees) declined from 80% in FY11 to 74% in FY13. Post NRN entry, company had

hiked offshore wage at the rate of 8% and overseas at 3%. We expect that company’s

management could decide for wage hike across onsite as well as offshore to enhance its

utilization rate in near term.

View and Valuation: Infosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with

revenue momentum kicking, and the NRN invisible hand in play. Further announcement

of strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, better deal win, consistent

client traction and revenue momentum would help the company to bridge the gap with

rivals such as TCS.

On an ongoing basis, Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion,

also operating metrics will turn into greenery from hay. Upgradation of earning

guidance by management hinted to join the party to enjoy with 12-14% earnings

growth for FY14E like other top bellwether. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x

FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target

price of Rs 3910 .

Market Data

In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level

exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in Infosys could be asked to

leave or may hand over layoff notices. Despite high salaries, some identified

employees are not contributing so much to improve productivity and efficiency of

operations. Already, the restructuring initiatives has taken place at the top of the

pyramid and now shifted to mid level of pyramid. Hence, its pink slip strategy indicates

to regain its growth and margin in near term.

Considering the strategy to build clients relation, execution of growth oriented policy

and combination of reduced onsite costs and higher utilization would be an optimistic

growth story despite recent hiccups of top management exit.

Key takeaways from recent webcast;

Restructuring at middle management: Mr. Murthy has taken initiatives to improve

cost efficiency and effective delivery system. The management has rewarded the top

performers and has given an opportunity to mediocre performers. Its PIP (performance

Improvement Program) followed by exam, and appraisal would dictate the level of

efficiency for mediocre, and the situation of involuntary attrition.

52wk Range H/L 3847/2190

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

Stock Performance

Average Daily Volume

"BUY"4th March' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 15: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

15

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Infosys.

Employee cost on sales-%

Employee cost on sales at all time high

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Total Employee and additions,

Looking to bring in about maximum 6,000

off-campus offers, Infosys will hire up to

16,000 engineers next year.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

The Company's Utilization is likely to

keep inching up, which could lead to

margin expansion for a couple of

quarters and that is going to be a huge

positive for Infosys as a company.

Headcount Metrics: Its attrition increased to 18% from

17.3%(2QFY14) on LTM basis, however

on sequentially basis they have been able

to control its attrition. we hope that the

further salary hikes across the board will

bring down the attrition levels going

forward.

Utilization:

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Employee's 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14

Total Employees (Cons-) 151,151 153,761 155,629 156,688 157,263 160,227 158404

Net additions 1,157 2,610 1,868 1,059 575 2,964 -1823

Laterals hired 5,233 3,656 4,351 3,545 3,008 3,806 3,333

LTM Attrition (Stand-) 14.9% 15.0% 15.1% 16% 16.9% 17.3% 18.10%

Page 16: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

16

Financials

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

■They are seeing confidence coming back from client’s metrics. However, they expect

[their] budgets only remain stable from last year. Clients are still focused on cost.

■ The Company is looking to bring in about maximum 6,000 off-campus offers starting

late January early February, so there is a lot of activity going on that is bringing people in,

engaging and developing.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Infosys.

Key facts from Management Interview;

■ Management upgraded its earning guidance for FY14E from 9-10% to 11.5-12%. This

guidnace means the company only has to achieve flat growth in the fourth quarter to

meet the projection.

■ With 85% of the company’s revenues coming from clients based in US and Europe, the

company should hope the current economic recovery in developed countries would help

its revenues.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Rs in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Sales, INR 22742 27501 33734 40352 50330 59631

Employee Cost 12085 14856 18340 22565 28185 33691

Other expenses 2792 3677 4671 6254 8556 10734

Total Expenses 14877 18533 23011 28819 36741 44425

EBITDA 7865 8968 10723 11533 13589 15206

Depreciation 905 854 928 1099 1371 1624

Other Income 982 1211 1904 2365 2567 3578

EBIT 7942 9325 11699 12799 14785 17160

Interest Cost 0 0 0 0 0 0

PBT 7942 9325 11699 12799 14785 17160

Tax 1681 2490 3367 3370 3992 4633

PAT 6261 6835 8332 9429 10793 12527

Growth-%

Sales 4.8% 20.9% 22.7% 19.6% 24.7% 18.5%

EBITDA 9.3% 14.0% 19.6% 7.6% 17.8% 11.9%

PAT 4.6% 9.2% 21.9% 13.2% 14.5% 16.1%

Margin -%

EBITDA 34.6% 32.6% 31.8% 28.6% 27.0% 25.5%

EBIT 34.9% 33.9% 34.7% 31.7% 29.4% 28.8%

PAT 27.5% 24.9% 24.7% 23.4% 21.4% 21.0%

Expenses on Sales-%

Employee Cost 53.1% 54.0% 54.4% 55.9% 56.0% 56.5%

Other expenses 12.3% 13.4% 13.8% 15.5% 17.0% 18.0%

Tax rate 21.2% 26.7% 28.8% 26.3% 27.0% 27.0%

Valuation

CMP 2615 2765 2865 2400 3793 3793

No of Share 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4

NW 23049.0 25976.0 31332.0 37994.0 45629.8 54797.5

EPS 109.1 119.0 145.1 164.2 188.0 218.2

BVPS 401.7 452.4 545.6 661.7 794.7 954.3

RoE-% 27.2% 26.3% 26.6% 24.8% 23.7% 22.9%

Dividen Payout ratio 25.1% 45.9% 24.0% 45.1% 23.0% 19.8%

P/BV 6.5 6.1 5.3 3.6 4.8 4.0

P/E 24.0 23.2 19.7 14.6 20.2 17.4

Page 17: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

Powergrid..

95

118

NA

25%

NA

532898

49490

22270

6277

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 8.2 9.5 8.1

Rel. to Nifty 9.5 3.8 4.0

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 57.9 57.9 69.4

FII 25.4 19.4 14.7

DII 8.6 8.8 7.6

Others 8.2 13.9 8.3

View & Recommendation

Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14

Revenue 3685 9.4 -7.9 3369 3999

EBIDTA 3105 6.0 -8.4 2930 3389

Net Profit 988 -8.5 -16.9 1080 1189

EBIDTA% 84 -3.1 -0.6 87 85

NPM% 27 -16.3 -9.8 32 30(In Crs)

17

The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) issued the final tariff regulations for

the period FY15-19 – these regulations form the basis of Power Grid’s earnings (regulated

returns) from its core transmission business over the next five years.The Key take aways

of these Regulations are Normative TAF (NATAF) for incentives lowered; no incentive for

TAF >99.75% .Normative O&M charges raised (vs. draft), but still below FY14 levels.

BSE Code

POWERGRIDNSE Symbol

52wk Range H/L

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

116/87

Overall revenues increased 9.6% YoY to Rs.3685 crore due to lower than anticipated

capitalisation (Rs.3050 crore) in Q3FY14 . Income increased 6.5%, 10.0% and 121.9% YoY

in transmission, telecom and consultancy income, respectively. Other income declined

9.7% YoY to Rs.116 crore as cash was deployed across various upcoming projects.

Margins declined 336 bps YoY to 87.4% due to 55.7% YoY rise in transmission & other

expenses to Rs.333 crore. Tax expenses increased 7.5% YoY to Rs. 399 crore. Q3FY13

included a one-time income of Rs.167 crore as wage revision benefit. Adjusting the same,

PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs.1,043 crore.

Upside

Change from Previous

Nifty

Update

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%

1 yr Forward P/B

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x

BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business model with   RoE (16%), strong growth

visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target

price of Rs.118.

Power Grid's Raichur-Solapur line has been connected to national grid. Management Says

there were four trippings in the first week. Two were to increase reliability and were

done intentionally, and the other two were because of a few glitches. For the last month

there has been no tripping.

With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will

drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our estimates we maintain a positive fundamental

outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of

further equity dilution is reduced

Capitalisation of assets remains on track. Till Jan end the company has capitalised Rs

118bn of assets which is 70% of our full year estimate. Since last two months of the year

usually account for the bulk of yearly commissioning we are confident that the co. will meet

our estimate of Rs 170bn for FY14.

Strong Capitalization : Power Grid’s adjusted PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs. 1,043 crore

in Q3FY14 While asset capitalisation was below estimate Rs. 3050 crore, PGCIL

commissioned another Rs. 3450 crore in January 2014 taking overall capitalisation to Rs.

13000 crore YTDFY14.

BUY

Market Data

Average Daily Volume (Nos.)

CMP

Target Price

Previous Target Price

"Buy"3rd march' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 18: Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

Narnolia Securities Ltd402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph

033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000

email: [email protected],

website : www.narnolia.com

Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of

the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation

advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any

action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been

furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or

redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly

available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we

consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not

provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change

without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,

should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that

past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of

any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to

assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates

and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or

otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and

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