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Investment Europe
Fund Selector Forum, Israel
3rd December 2014
FOR DELEGATE USE ONLY - NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION
PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH POOLS AND/OR ACCOUNTS WHOSE PARTICIPANTS ARE LIMITED TOQUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS, AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL AND/OR THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILEDWITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A POOL AND/OR TRADING PROGRAM OR UPONTHE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM AND/OR COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR DISCLOSURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADINGCOMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS OFFERING OR ANY OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL AND/OR THIS TRADING PROGRAM OR THIS BROCHURE.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local PortfolioGS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond PortfolioGS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
1
Table of Contents
I. Market Review & Outlook
II. EMD Valuations & Opportunities
II. Key Positions
III. EMD Benchmark Indices
IV. GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Appendix
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
I. Market Review & Outlook
3
Market reviewReturn across EMD asset classes
Market Review & Outlook
29.8%
12.2%7.3%
17.4%
-5.3%
9.9%
22.0%15.7%
-1.8%
16.8%
-9.0%
1.6%
34.9%
13.1%
2.3%
15.0%
-0.6%
7.2%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
An
n. R
etu
rn
External Debt (JPM EMBI Global Div) Local Debt (JPM GBI-EM Global Div) Corp Debt (JPM CEMBI Broad Div)
EM External Debt Return Decomposition(JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index)
EM Local Debt Return Decomposition(JPM GBI-EM Global Index)
EM Corporate Debt Return Decomposition(JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Index)
Source: GSAM & JPM calculations, JPM-Morgan Markets, as of 31-Oct-14. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
29.8%
12.2% 7.3%17.4%
-5.3%
9.9%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD
An
n.
Retu
rn
US Interest RatesEMD SpreadTotal Return
22.0%
15.7%
-1.8%
16.8%
-9.0%
1.6%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD
An
n.
Retu
rn
RatesCurrenciesTotal Return
34.9%
13.1%2.3%
15.0%
-0.6%
7.2%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD
An
n.
Retu
rn
US Interest Rates
EMD Spread
Total Return
4
Total EM fixed income flows turn positive in 2014
Market Review & Outlook
Total EM fixed income flows have stabilised Flows into EM fixed income retail funds remain at low levels
As of 29-Oct-14. Source: LHS : JPM, EPFR. RHS: Barclays, EPFR. LC: Local Currency. HC: Hard Currency. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
5
Fund flows have followed performance
Barclays, EPFR, as of 13-Aug-14. LC: Local Currency. HC: Hard Currency. JP Morgan. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
Hard currency bond flows follow performance with a smaller lag
Local currency bond flows follow performance
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-13
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-14
Jun
-14
Jul-1
4
Au
g-1
4
LC bond fund flows LC bond returns (advanced 3w fwd)Month chg.
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-13
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-14
Jun
-14
Jul-1
4
Au
g-1
4
HC bond fund flows HC bond returns (advanced 1w fwd), RHSMonth chg.
Market Review & Outlook
6
Commodities price impact on EM varies by country Lower commodity prices pose a risk to exporting countries, while net importing countries may be set to benefit from this environment
In the current environment, with low commodities prices, countries under pressure are Venezuela, Russia, Argentina, Malaysia,Colombia, while the top winners are countries like South Korea, Czech, Israel, Poland, Turkey, Thailand, as well as some of the Caribbean nations.
Impact on current accounts incorporates the changes in commodity prices in 3Q based on S&P’s indices (-17.8% in agriculture, -13.9% in energy and -2.4% in metals) and each country’s net exports as percentage of GDP of these three categories. Source: CS, GSAM. October 2014.
Commodity price impact of EM current accounts (% of GDP) ... the beneficiaries and countries adversely affected
• Argentina and Venezuela: commodity exports are the main source of dollar inflows for both of these economies, with soybeans for Argentina and oil for Venezuela.
• Russia: some negative impact from lower oil prices expected. However to note that during the financial crisis in 2008-2009 when oil prices fell to <$50/bbl, the current account balance did not turn negative.
• Korea and Thailand: Lower oil and metals prices are likely to add to Korea's already strong current account surplus. Thailand also benefits from the recent fall in oil prices.
Country Food Energy Metals
Net Impact of 3Q
Commodity Price
Shock
Brazil (0.3) 0.0 (0.2) (0.5)
Mexico 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.1
Colombia 0.0 (0.9) 0.0 (1.2)
Chile (0.3) 0.6 (1.7) (0.1)
Peru 0.2 0.0 (0.8) 0.1
Argentina (0.8) 0.1 0.0 (1.4)
Venezuela 0.3 (2.1) (0.1) (2.5)
Russia 0.2 (1.7) (0.1) (2.1)
Turkey (0.1) 0.7 0.2 0.9
South Africa 0.0 0.5 (0.8) 0.6
Poland 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.9
Hungary (0.3) 0.6 0.2 0.3
Czech Republic 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.1
Israel 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.1
India (0.1) 0.6 0.1 0.7
Indonesia (0.2) 0.1 0.0 (0.2)
Malaysia (0.3) (0.6) 0.3 (1.3)
S. Korea 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.7
Thailand (0.5) 1.2 0.5 0.9
Current Account Sensitivity to
10% Price Decline
Market Review & Outlook
7
Varying levels of impact on EM from lower oilLower commodity prices pose a significant risk to EM exporting countries rates and currencies
Note: Inflation impact calculated using domestic fuel prices. Source: Morgan Stanley; Bloomberg; GSAM. October 2014. Oil (Crude): CL1 Comdty; Copper: LP3 Comdty; Soybeans: SPGSSOTR Index (S&P GSCI Soybeans Index); Wheat: W 1 Comdty.
Big decline in commodity prices since the summer…
Copper
Soybeans and Wheat
Market Review & Outlook
Macro Impact from a 10% Fall in Oil Prices….
Oil (Crude)
6400
6900
7400
7900
8400
2012 2013 2014
75
8085
90
95
100105
110
115
2012 2013 2014
250
500
750
1000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2012 2013 2014
Soybeans (LHS)
Wheat (RHS)
USD/bbl.
USD/MT
USD USD/ bu.
8
IMF China Risk AssessmentStill manageable, but vulnerabilities continue to build up
Policy Buffers Risk Factors
Source: IMF. As of Oct-14
Market Review & Outlook
1. Government debt still low
– Low relative to other EM countries at around 55% of GDP
– Solvency position looks solid
2. External debt levels are low and domestic savings are high
3. Government control, state-owned banks
4. Adjustment has started
– Fiscal reforms to rebalance revenue sharing
– Municipal bond issuance
– Sale of state assets
Low probability of near-term crisis or sharp slowdown
1. Real estate, credit & shadow banking, LGs, investment
– At 150% of GDP, corporates are the largest and fastest growing borrower group in the financial system
– Shadow banking’s share of GDP has risen 35 percentage points since start of 2009
2. Vulnerabilities interlinked & still growing
– Shadow banking still has close ties to the formal banking system
3. Continued reliance on investment and credit for growth
4. Financial reforms complex, moral hazard
Without reforms, growingmedium-term risk
9
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
(%)
GBI-EM Global Div Traded Index Yield EM CPI YoY (Composite)
Effects of QE largely priced out, a lot of bad news priced in
Emerging Market (EM) Yields have Increased from spring 2013 levels while Inflation is Stable
EM Yields as of 30-Sep-14, EM CPI YoY as of 30-Sep-14
EM Currencies are much Weaker than their 2011 and 2012 Peaks
Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, GSAM. EMLD FX represented by JPM Emerging Market Currency Index. Index constituents have the following static weights: CLP 11.11%, BRL 11.11%, MXN 11.11%, HUF 8.33%, ZAR 8.33%, RUB 8.33%, TRY 8.33%, SGD 11.11%, CNY 11.11%, INR 11.11%.
Market Review & Outlook
EMLD FX Performance – October 31, 2014
Current Level
QE 1QE 2 QE 3
BoJLTRO
ECB
II. EMD Valuations & Opportunities
11
EM macro fundamentals A broad picture of health
Government Debt (% of GDP) Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Source: IMF 2014 estimates, Data as at Apr-14.
EMD Valuations & Opportunities
Developed Markets Emerging Markets
106%
33%
-4%
-2%
0.5%
0.8%
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Ch
ile
Ru
ssia
Pe
ru
Ind
on
esi
a
Tu
rke
y
Co
lom
bia
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ro
ma
nia
So
uth
Afr
ica
Me
xico
Po
lan
d
Ma
lay
sia
Bra
zil
Slo
ve
nia
Hu
ng
ary
Sp
ain
Ire
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ita
ly
Gre
ece
Z-s
pre
ad
(b
ps)
De
bt
to G
DP
(%
)Debt sustainability issues plaguing DM less of a concern for EM
EMD Valuations & Opportunities
Developed markets are set to pierce debt-to-GDP ratios of 100% whilst those of emerging markets should remain below 40%.
EM countries do not share the same public balance sheet stress as peripheral Europe.
There are very few EM countries with balance sheets as stretched as those of peripheral Europe (Public Sector Debt / GDP)
Source: IMF, Bloomberg, JP Morgan as of 31-Oct-14.
13
EM sovereign spreads look attractive vs US IG and HY
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JP Morgan, Barclays.
EMD Valuations & Opportunities
EM sovereign index spreads are now closer to US HY than to US IG, currently at the bottom of the range.
While July’s move reverses the cheapening of EM vs. HY, over a long horizon EM remains cheap to HY.
EM sovereign index spreads vs. US IG are now 192 bps apart
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Difference between JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index and Barclays US IG Corporate Index (bps)
Difference between JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index and Barclays US HY Corporate Index (bps)
14
EMBIG IG and CEMBI spreads have traded in a narrow range in 2014 despite the sell-off in Russia
Source: JP Morgan. As of 31-Oct-14. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Please see additional disclosures.
EMD Valuations & Opportunities
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct-
14
Sp
read
(b
ps)
CEMBI Broad EMBIG IG Russia EMBI GD
15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fe
b-0
8
Ap
r-08
Jun
-08
Au
g-0
8
Oct
-08
Dec-0
8
Fe
b-0
9
Ap
r-09
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
Oct
-09
Dec-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Au
g-1
0
Oct
-10
Dec-1
0
Fe
b-1
1
Ap
r-11
Jun
-11
Au
g-1
1
Oct
-11
Dec-1
1
Fe
b-1
2
Ap
r-12
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2
Oct
-12
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
Dec-1
3
Fe
b-1
4
Ap
r-14
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Z-s
pre
ad
(b
ps
)
JPM EMBI Global Diversified IG
JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified IG
Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade
The value in EM corporates
IG EM Corporates (with an average rating of A3/BBB+) have a yield pickup of 98 bps relative to IG US Corporates (with an average rating of A2/A3) and a yield pickup of 9 bps over IG EM Sovereigns (with an average rating of Baa2/BBB)
As of 30-Sep-14. Source: GSAM, Barclays, JPMorgan.
210 bps201 bps
112 bps
BarclaysU.S.
Corporate IG
JPM EMBI Global
Diversified IG
JPM CEMBI Broad
Diversified IG
IG EM Corporates vs
IG US Corporates
30-Dec-11 238 275 335 97
31-Dec-12 139 149 243 104
31-Dec-13 114 203 226 112
30-Sep-14 112 201 210 98
EMD Valuations & Opportunities
16
Emerging market debt within fixed income sectorsMajor EMD assets offer attractive yield and relatively higher credit ratings
*Years to maturity. Source JP Morgan, Barclays, Citi Group, Credit Swiss, GSAM. As of 31-Oct-14.EM IG Corporates USD :JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified (IG , EM Corporates USD :JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified, EMD USD :JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified, EMD
local : JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified, Barclays Global Treasury: Barclays Global Treasury ex-Japan, Global IG Corp:Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Index, US HY Corporate:Barclays US HY Corporate Index, Blended EMD: 50% JPM GBI-EM Global Div. 25% JPM EMBI Global Div. 25% JPM CEMBI Broad Div; Euro IG Corp – Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporate; Euro HighYield Corp – ML Euro High Yield Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
Euro IG Corp
Barclays Global
Treasury
Barclays Global
AggregateGlobal IGCorporate
EMD Corporate IG (USD)
Euro High Yield Corp
EMD Corporate
(USD)
EMD (Hard
Currency)
US Leveraged
LoanBlended
EMDUS HY
Corporate
EMD(Local
Currency)
Duration (years)
4.80 6.56 6.11 6.28 5.58 3.87 5.26 7.00 5.08* 5.47 4.25 4.81
Sovereign Risk ○ ● ● ○ ○ ○ ○ ● ○ ● ○ ●Credit Risk ● ● ● ● ● ● ○ ● ● ●Currency Risk (vs US Dollar) ● ● ● ● ● ●Average Credit Rating
A- AA AA- A- BBB+ BB- BBB BBB- B+ BBB B BBB+
Significant Exposure●Partial Exposure○ Investment Grade
1.2%1.5%
1.9%2.6%
4.2% 4.2%
4.9%5.2% 5.4%
5.7% 5.8%6.4%
EMD Valuations & Opportunities
III. Key Positions
18
GSAM Emerging Market Debt ViewsKey active positions
Source: GSAM. As of 31-Oct-14.¹ Underweights exclude funding currencies USD, EUR and JPY positions. The data shown is of a representative account, is for informational purposes only, and is not indicative of future portfolio characteristics/returns. Not all portfolio holdings are shown above. Key positions across GSAM EMD platform. Portfolio holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
Key Positions
Local Rates
Overweight
Brazil
Indonesia
South Africa
Underweight
South Korea
Malaysia
Chile
Currency
Overweight
India INR
S. Africa ZAR
Mexico MXN
Underweight1
Singapore SGD
China CNY
Brazil BRL
External
Overweight
Croatia
Indonesia
Paraguay
Underweight
China
Philippines
Hungary
Overweight (Industry)
Utilities
Consumer
Industrial
Underweight (Industry)
Financials
Basic Materials
Corporates
IV. EMD Benchmark Indices
20
Local Sovereign
Debt, 100%
JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified IndexLocal EMD
Top level statistics Country of risk breakdown (MV, %)
Sector breakdown (MV,%) Credit rating breakdown (MV, %)
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JP Morgan.
EMD Benchmark Indices
Number of Holdings 200
Number of Countries 16
Average Rating BBB+
Coupon (%) 6.51
Yield to Worst (%) 6.42
Option Adjusted Duration (years) 4.87
Maturity (years) 7.04
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
7.9% 7.7%6.9%
6.3%
4.9%
2.5%1.9%
1.5%
0.4% 0.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
AA, 0.1%
A, 40.1%
BBB, 58.0%
BB, 1.9%
21
External Sovereign
Debt, 75.8%
External Quasi-Sovereign
Debt, 24.2%
JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified IndexExternal EMD
Top level statistics Country of risk breakdown (MV, %)
Sector breakdown (MV,%) Credit rating breakdown (MV, %)
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JP Morgan. ‘Other’ category comprises countries with less than 0.5% market value.
EMD Benchmark Indices
Number of Holdings 453
Number of Countries 61
Average Rating BBB-
Coupon (%) 6.24
Yield to Worst (%) 4.91
Option Adjusted Spread Duration (years) 6.76
Maturity (years) 11.06
OAS (bps) 300
AA, 6.0%
A, 16.9%
BBB, 41.6%
BB, 15.7%
B, 14.3%
CCC, 4.6% NR, 0.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
22
32%
15%14%
10%7% 7%
5% 5% 4%1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4 5.24.8
4.64.2
1.8
1.20.8
0.50.2 0.2 0.2
4.94.5
1.3
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1
5.0
4.23.7
0.70.5 0.3 0.2 0.2
3.0
1.10.7 0.5 0.3 0.3
5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
4.13.8
2.52.2
1.8
1.10.9
0.1 0.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Me
xic
o
Bra
zil
Colo
mbia
Chile
Pe
ru
Jam
aic
a
Arg
en
tina
Gu
ate
mala
Trin
idad
& T
ob
ago
Pa
rag
ua
y
El S
alv
ad
or
Dom
Re
p
Russia
Tu
rke
y
Ka
zakh
sta
n
Ukra
ine
Po
lan
d
Czech
Rep
Hu
nga
ry
Azerb
aija
n
Cro
atia
UA
E
Qa
tar
Isra
el
Ku
wait
Sa
ud
i A
rab
ia
Ba
hra
in
Om
an
Ira
q
So
uth
Afr
ica
Nig
eri
a
Mo
rocc
o
Gh
ana
Eg
ypt
Za
mb
ia
Hon
g K
on
g
India
Ko
rea
Chin
a
Sin
ga
pore
Th
aila
nd
Ph
ilipp
ines
Indo
nesia
Ma
lays
ia
Ma
cau
Ta
iwan
Mo
ng
olia
Ba
ng
lade
sh
Mark
et
Valu
e (
%)
JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified IndexCorporate EMD
Top level statistics Credit bucket breakdown (MV,%) Industry breakdown (MV,%)
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: JP Morgan, GSAM calculations.
EMD Benchmark Indices
Amount outstanding (US$, bn) 285
Market cap (US$, bn) 295
No of issues/securities 1,141
No of issuers 544
No of countries 50
Average credit rating BBB-
Yield to Maturity (%) 4.90
Spread (bps) 310
Average term remain (years) 8.12
Average Duration 4.93
Europe: 13%Latin America: 29% Middle East: 15% Asia: 38%Africa: 6%
Investment Grade67.1%
High Yield32.9%
23
0123456789
Sector breakdown (MV,%)
JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified IG Ex-Financials IndexCorporate EMD
Top level statistics
As of 29-Oct-14. Source: JP Morgan.
Amount outstanding (US$, bn) 117
Market cap (US$, bn) 125
No of issues/securities 474
No of issuers 187
No of countries 25
Average credit rating (Moody’s/S&P) Baa2/BBB
Yield to Maturity (%) 3.81
Spread (bps) 199
Average term remain (years) 9.71
Average Duration 6.46
Central & Eastern Europe: 7%Asia: 35% Latin America: 30% Middle East/Africa: 28%
0
10
20
30
EMD Benchmark Indices
V. GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
25
GSAM Fixed Income and Liquidity ManagementEmerging market debt assets account for ~10% of GSAM FI assets
Source: GSAM; AUS data as of September 30, 2014, team data as of same date or later. Assets Under Supervision (AUS) includes assets under management and other client assets for which Goldman Sachs does not have full discretion. Assets may not sum to totals due to figures being rounded down.¹ Alternative Investments includes non-fixed income Hedge Funds, Private Equity, Global Manager Strategies, Quantitative Strategies, Balanced, Multi-Product and other assets (seed capital). ² Includes Quantitative and Fundamental Equities. ³ Includes only funded assets under supervision. Please note that currency AUS is based on notional assets for unfunded accounts and market value for funded mandates. Firmwide currency AUS (including overlays and accounts that utilize currency as part of a wider risk budget) scaled to a common volatility of 4% amount to US$22.4bn.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Investment Banking SecuritiesGlobal Investment
Research
Investment Management
Over $441 Billion in Fixed Income AUS
Goldman Sachs Asset Management
AUS ($bn)
Sin
gle
-se
cto
rs
trate
gie
sSecuritized $29.7
Municipals 30.9
EMD 37.9
High Yield 23.5
Bank Loans 5.9
Investment Grade Credit 27.0
Long Duration Credit 22.8
Global Currency3 0.2
Commodities 3.2
AUS ($bn)
Mu
lti-
Se
cto
r a
nd
Reg
ion
alS
trate
gie
s Short Duration $62.9
US Intermediate Duration 38.2
US Core 48.2
Europe / UK 19.1
Global Fixed Income 26.1
Long Duration 19.2
LIBOR Plus 37.2
Oth
er
Relative Value $4.4
Opportunistic / Distressed 3.8
Over $999.2 billion in AUS across fixed income, equity and alternatives1
2,000+ professionals in 32 locations globally
Combines the resources of a large firm with the focus of an investment boutique
Equity2
193.4 bn
Fixed Income & Currency 441.2 bn
Money Markets225.5 bn
Alternative Investments1
139.1
26
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Long history of managing emerging markets debt at GSAM
EM currency
management
First dedicated EM
Local debt portfolio
(bm agnostic)
EM debt part of
Core Fixed Income
First dedicated EM
Local debt portfolio
(JPM GBI-EM GD)
First dedicated EM
External debt portfolio
Manage EM
corporates within
portfolios
EM Local debt part
of Core FI portfolios
First dedicated EM
Corp portfolio
GSAM EMD Assets Under ManagementTotal Dedicated EMD: $38.6bnIncluding all FI portfolios*: $45.8bn
EMD Market Size(JPM benchmarks)
Total: $3.1tn
GSAM Milestones
Local Sov’nJPM GBI-EM
Broad$1,670 bn
CorporateJPM CEMBI
Broad$802 bn
USD Sov’nJPM EMBI
Global$668 bn
First dynamic
blended EMD fund
First absolute
return EMD
mandate
As of 31-Oct-14. Sources: GSAM, JPMorgan. Total Dedicated EMD assets above includes all assets in funds and accounts, including cash and liquidity fund investments. The USD Sovereign constrained AUM includes accounts with low tracking error targets and constraints due to client specific guidelines. *Includes EMD assets in non-dedicated accounts (including multi-sector, and global portfolios).
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Our strategies have developed with the growth of the asset class
$9.1 $3.6 $1.5 $0.2
$2.0
$3.2
$7.7
$11.3
$14.4
0 3 6 9 12 15 18
Corporate
USD Sov'nConstrained
USD Sov'n
Local Sov'n
Blend
USD Sovn Local Sovn USD Corp Absolute Return
27
Global Fixed Income and Liquidity Management
Jonathan Beinner, CIO, Co-Head, Global Fixed Income and Liquidity ManagementAndrew Wilson, Co-Head, Global Fixed Income and Liquidity Management
As of October 6, 2014.1 Fixed Income Strategists report directly to David Coulson who reports directly to Gavin Simms Head of IMD Strategists.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Top-Down Strategy Teams
Tom Teles+6 professionals
22+ yrs avg experience
Anticipates direction of markets and changing shape of yield curve using
fundamental, quantitative and technical analysis
Currency
Cross-Sector
Country
Duration
Kent Wosepka Tom Teles
+3 professionals17+ yrs avg experience
Employs top-down fundamental analysis in allocating capital to bottom-up
strategies
Jonathan Bayliss+7 professionals
18+ yrs avg experience
Develops individual country views using a “balance
sheet” research approach, using quantitative tools as an overlay to the process
David Bowen +6 professionals
15+ yrs avg experience
Employs a flexible, economics-based process to determine the relative
attractiveness of currencies
Bottom-Up Strategy Teams
Securitized / Gov’t / Swaps (Tom Teles, Head) Municipals EMD Money Markets
Gov’t / Swaps Securitized
Mark Van Wyk+10 professionals
9+ yrs avg experience
Duration & curveRelative Value
Issuer / Issue SelectionInterest rate hedging
Ben Barber+15 professionals
13+ yrs avg experience
Taxable & tax-exempt Tax adjusted return and
incomeRates and curve strategies Municipal credit analysis
Sam Finkelstein+23 professionals
10+ yrs avg experience
External and local sovereign, quasi-sovereign,
corporate debt and EM currencies
Fundamental research of country balance sheets Long-term orientation
Dave FishmanJames McCarthy+18 professionals
+2 Gao Hua Securities 14+ yrs avg experience
Provide investment solutions for all liquidity tiers
Incorporate liquidity issues with strategic view to determine optimum curve exposure
Global Corporate Credit Team (Kent Wosepka, Head)
Investment GradeBank Loans /
High Yield
Matthew ArmasBen Johnson
+10 professionals12+ yrs avg experience
Fundamentally-driven bottom-up approach global perspective to
uncover relative value opportunities
Lale Topcuoglu15+ yrs avg experience
Fundamentally-driven bottom-up approachGlobal, across the
spectrum of corporate credit for non-benchmark
portfolios
High Yield
Peter Schwab+19 professionals
8+ yrs avg experience
Credit selection and analysisCoverage across the spectrum of high yield
corporate credit
Multi / Single Sector
Jonathan BeinnerAndrew Wilson
Jonathan BaylissSam Finkelstein
Iain LindsayPhilip MoffittMichael Swell
Tom TelesMark Van Wyk
Stephen WarrenKent Wosepka
Oversees portfolio strategy, key risk positions, investment process, medium to
long-term themes and outlook
Global PortfolioConstruction & Risk
Stephen Warren +5 professionals
Monitors portfolio construction and provide risk oversight
Quantitative Research and Strategists
David Coulson1
+16 professionals
Build proprietary research and analysis platforms to support investment teams
Macro Strategies (Sam Finkelstein, Head)
Investment Grade
Steve Waxman+18 professionals
10+ yrs avg experience
Credit selection and analysisCoverage across the spectrum of investment grade corporate credit
Corporate Credit Research
Iain LindsayMichael SwellYacov ArnopolinRonald AronsAngus BellHugh BriscoeJeremy Cave Rachel GolderMichael GoosayMatthew KaiserNini LakewAlex Lawson Antonella Manganelli
Portfolio Managers
Global Liquidity Management
Portfolio Managers
Dave FishmanJames McCarthyJason GranetJemma Clee
Insurance
John Melvin+9 professionals
14+ yrs avq experience
Portfolio construction and customized investment solutions for insurance clients
Product Management
Olga Klepov+ 47 professionals
Provides product support across all strategies
Stable Value
Josh Kruk+6 professionals
15+ yrs avg experience
Customized capital preservation solutions for retirement plans and other investors
FISG11 Investors
23+ Years Average Experience
Scott GilbertBob LeggettJohn OlivoSubash Pillai
Alternatives
Jonathan Xiong +2 professionals
Focus on expanding the hedge fund alternative business, covering Global Ops,
Commodities and Currency hedge fund strategies including FIMS.
Matei MihalcaKozo MitamuraPhilip MoffittSean ReynoldsOwi RuivivarJasper SagooPaul SearyJason SingerBen TrombleyTetsuya UkaiAyumu UrataJonathan XiongWeiliang Zhang
Chris Creed / Chris Hogan+9 professionals
13+ yrs avg experience
Agency mortgage selection and analysisSecuritized credit selection and analysis
Commodities
Michael Johnson+3 professionals
11+ yrs avg experience
Alpha strategies: timing, curve shape, relative value, and volatility tradesBeta strategies: seek exposure to
commodities index and manage roll on futures or enhanced swaps
Alternative Corporate Credit
Rachel GolderMichael Goldstein+7 professionals
13+ yrs avg experience
Fundamentally-driven bottom-up credit approach Global,
diversified portfolio
28
Cross-pollination of ideas between EMD and other Fixed Income teams
As of 31-Oct-14. For illustrative purposes only.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Currency
Global Commodities
Money Markets
SecuritisedCross Sector
Duration
Emerging Market Debt
Global Equity Team
Corporates
EMD Team Floor Plan in New York
US Corporate
Credit (+35)
Emerging Market
Debt (+9)
GlobalCommodities
(+5)
TSY/ MBS (+12)
Risk (+4)
Global Fixed Income Teams
The Emerging Markets team benefits from synergies with other GSAM FI teams
The EMD team in New York is seated between the US Corporate Credit and the Global Commodities teams
Treasury/MBS professionals are close-by to advise on duration and interest rate exposure
29
How do GSAM fixed income teams interact?Scheduled meetings and calls underpin our culture of dialogue and debate
As of 31-Oct-14. For illustrative purposes only.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Team Members Frequency Purpose and Impact
Fixed Income Strategy Group(FISG)
CIO + Ten strategy heads (including EMD) Bi-weekly call Quarterly offsite
Discuss market trends and outlook Debate key themes Determine framework for near-term macro
positioning
Cross SectorHeads of the Credit, EMD, Securitized and Risk teams
Twice weekly - sector and outlook Weekly - opportunistic Bi-weekly - model and projections review
Develop top-down views to support / supplement bottom-up strategies
Discuss cross-sector valuations
Fixed Income AlphaAll Fixed Income, led by strategy heads(including EMD team)
Weekly Present key positions across strategies.
Macro ForumCountry, Currency, Commodities, EMD team
WeeklyInternal and external speaker presentations on current themes.
Market Meeting Various sector PMs (including EMD) Weekly Review key developments across sectors.
Emerging Market Debt Team
External Debt EMD team members Weekly via Telepresence Analyze and review fundamental research, country and sector targets, new and existing positions, trade ideas and market trends.Local Debt EMD team members Weekly via Telepresence
Blended Strategy EMD team members Bi-weekly via Telepresence Review blended asset allocation
EM/DM Relative Value Rates EMD + Developed Market Rates Traders Bi-weeklyDebate EM/DM rate curves, find relative value opportunities.
FX Strategy EMD team members Weekly Update on current positioning and FX views.
Corporate Debt EMD Corporate PMs + Analysts Three times weekly via TelepresenceUpdate on current positioning, company and sector views.
Corporate Debt and High Yield EMD Corporate and High Yield PM’s + Analysts Weekly Sector and company positioning review.
Global Corporate CreditEMD + Developed Markets Corporate PMs and Analysts
WeeklyUpdate on industry and sector trends, individual companies and positions.
Culture of continuous discussion / debate and free flow of ideas
30
The GSAM EMD team – Specialists across EMD asset classes
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Head of Emerging Markets DebtSam Finkelstein (18)
Responsible for overall portfolio
risk including beta decisions.
Sovereign Economists
Sovereign Analysis
Responsible for sovereign
research and making
recommendations on debt and
currency positioning
Traders
Security Selection
Responsible for trading debt and
currencies managing liquidity and
making security selection
recommendations
EM Corporate Credit
EM Corporate Analysis
Responsible for fundamental
corporate research and portfolio
construction
Portfolio Managers
Portfolio Monitoring
Responsible for setting and
monitoring portfolio risk budgets
& guidelines and communicating
strategy to investors
Owi Ruivivar (17)
Location Key
New York Tokyo
London Bangalore
Singapore Argentina
Sabriyah Denham2 (11)
Sam Zhang (3)
Yacov Arnopolin (15)
The Emerging Markets Debt
team benefits from synergies
with other GSAM teams:
Commodities Team
Global Corporate Credit
Team
Duration and Country Teams
Global Equity Team
Ricardo Penfold (17)
Diego Sasson * (7)
Francesca Fornasari1 (16)
Kozo Mitamura (18)
Vladimir Liberzon (13) External Debt
Michael Jalkut (15) Local Rates
David Bowen1 (21) FX
Neil Squires (13)
Jacqueline Leary (6)
Nick Saunders (13)
Salman Niaz (14)
Hubert Chu (9)
Aakash Thombre (7)
Prashant Bajaj (4)
Krishnan V R (3)
Kunal Singh (8)
Ben Stein (4)
Prakriti Sofat (9)
Pratik Chaudhuri (1)
Numbers in parentheses ( ) indicate years of investment experience, as of 4-Nov-14.* Economist spends his time in New York and Argentina¹ Member of the GSAM Currency team covering EM and G10 currencies. ² Global Fixed Income Trader who trades Emerging Market Asia sovereign and corporate debt as part of her responsibilities in Singapore. In addition GSAM has a local presence in Beijing where the team provide local market analysis
Clearly defined roles and responsibilities
31
Investment approach Target sources of alpha
For illustrative purposes only.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Sovereign Economists Local analysts EM traders EM Corp team
EM Team Portfolio Decisions EM Team Portfolio Decisions
Country selection Country selection – a
research-intensive
process; decisions via
dialogue and debate within
EMD team
Sam Finkelstein acts as
facilitator for the
discussion
Security selection Security selection
and relative value
views
Input on market
technicals, flows
and liquidity
Tactical positioning
GSAM FI Inputs
Currency team Macro teamCountry /
Peripherals teamCommodities team
Portfolio beta positioning influenced by macro views of GSAM FI risk teams
Sam Finkelstein has ultimate responsibility for overall portfolio beta decisions
Optimal portfolio construction
32
Three Pillars of analysing sovereign debt
Source: GSAM. For illustrative use only. Please see additional disclosures.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Three Pillars of analysing sovereign debt
Debt level and its composition
Main drivers of fiscal revenue
Political ability to raise taxes
or cut expenditures
Fiscal1
Structure of the balance
of payment
Capital account and current
account
Destination of the country’s exports and imports
Balance of Payments2
Health of the financial sector
Credit growth outlook
Composition, vulnerability
and leverage of the banking
sector
Monetary/Financial3
What to watch out for – RED FLAGS
Current account deficit as a % of GDP above 5%
Consistently high fiscal deficit above 4%
High external debt relative to exports & GDP
Excessive credit growth
33
Investment processStructured investment process + disciplined sizing & risk management
Source: GSAM. For illustrative use only. Global Risk Factor Model (GRM) is a proprietary risk platform. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk. 1 In conjunction with clients for segregated accounts. Targets are subject to change and are current as of the date of this presentation. Targets are objectives and do not provide any assurance as to future results. Please see additional disclosures.
1. Risk budgeting
2. Bottom-up research
3. Portfolio construction
4. Portfoliomonitoring
Portfolio Manager 1Sovereign Economists/ EM Corporate Analysts
Sam Finkelstein/Portfolio Managers/Traders
Portfolio Managers/ Risk Team
Typical target tracking error
200 – 400 bps
Typical excess return target
150 – 300 bps
Sovereign Credit
Rates
FX
Corporate Credit
Fundamental, bottom-up research based on Three Pillars approach
Focus on sovereign and corporate balance sheets
Form views on individual countries' rates, FX, sovereign and corporate credit markets
Consider high conviction off benchmark positions.
Global Risk Model (GRM)
Monitor TE vs benchmark
P&L
Performance attribution
Debate
Implementation
Risk/return
Liquidity
Position limits
Size to conviction
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
34
EMD LocalForming rate views
Investment Process Analytical Tools
Source: GSAM. As of August 2014. For illustrative purposes only to demonstrate our investment process on a sample analysis and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any GSAM product or service described herein. 5y5y refers to 5 year rate in 5 years’ time. FV: GSAM Fair Value, BOP: Balance of Payments. * Using bonds instead of swaps.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Central Bank Analysis 5y5y Fair Value Framework
Additional Analytical Tools
Curve Shapes Compared to DM
Macro Views on EM Rates
Level of Conviction Fit within Risk Budget
Size of Rates Position
Three Pillars of Sovereign Debt
Macroeconomic FoundationSovereign Economists
Sovereign Economists
CIO
Liquidity Volatility Relative Value
Security Selection Considerations
Traders
CIO + Team
Finding fair value based on trend growth and inflation
Input to determine fair and relative value of various EM curves Influences views on long end of the curve
Analysing Central Banks Formulate outlook on monetary policy Influences views on front end of the curve
LATAM Activity Labor Market Credit Fiscal Inflation Rating
Brazil -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.0 0.27
Chile -0.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.50
Colombia -0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 -1.0 0.12
Mexico -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 0.5 -0.41
Peru -0.5 1.0 1.0 -1.0 1.5 0.52
Rating: 0 on hold, 1 = moderately hawkish and on hold. 2 = hawkish and hike
35
CurrencyForming FX views
Investment Process Analytical Tools
Source: GSAM. For illustrative purposes only to demonstrate our investment process on a sample analysis and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any GSAM product or service described herein. BBoP: Basic Balance of Payments. PPP: Purchasing Power Parity. GSDEER refers to GS Dynamic Equilibrium Exchange Rate
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Global Factors FX impact changes global PMI FX impact changes global liquidity
(aggregate of change in credit growth) FX impact changes global exports
Market Factors Momentum FX Market FV Carry to Vol Risk demand impact Seasonality Market pricing for change in rates
Local Factors Full breakdown of flows in BBoP Terms of trade FX fair value (PPP & GSDEER) Fiscal balance Unemployment Leading Indicator Growth Surprise Indices Real yields Credit growth Wage growth Export growth Industrial production growth Retail sales growth CPI
FX Scorecard
Additional Analytical Tools
Commodities G10 FX Views
Macro Views on EM FX
Level of Conviction Fit within Risk Budget
Size of EM FX Position
Three Pillars of Sovereign Debt
Macroeconomic FoundationSovereign Economists
Sovereign Economists
CIO
Carry to Volatility Momentum Indicators
Technical Considerations
Traders
CIO + Team
FX Scorecard
Each currency’s final score is the sum of each Factor group.
Final scores are used to evaluate relative value opportunities among currencies
36
EMD ExternalForming sovereign credit views
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Fair Value Analysis & Scenario Probabilities
Pick anchor country – e.g., Mexico for LatAm region.
Add risk premium/discount vs. anchor country for fundamentals and policy mix using three-pillars approach.
Determine fair value under trend inflation and trend growth scenario – base case, no stress scenario.
Assign probabilities of capital and current account shocks and add the appropriate risk premium.
Determine spread target and compare to current 10 year spreads.
Sovereign Economists
Sovereign Economists
CIO
Premium/discount vs peers for policy mix and fundamentals
Spread under stress test
Fair & Relative Value Framework
Vs. Other spread products Vs. Quasi’s & Vs. Corporates
Macro Views on EM Spreads
Level of Conviction Fit within Risk Budget Determine Target & Exit Level
Size of Position
Three Pillars of Sovereign Debt
Macroeconomic Foundation
Liquidity Volatility Relative Value
Security Selection Considerations
Traders
CIO + Team
As of May 8, 2014. Source: GSAM, Bloomberg. * Positive = cheap to target, Negative = rich to target.
Any reference to a specific country or security does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or directly invest in the country or its securities. It should not be assumed that the recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities discussed in this document. Targets are subject to change and are current as of the date of this presentation. Targets are objectives and do not provide any assurance as to future results
37
Sources of potential excess return
Sovereign External Debt
Cross-country “balance sheet” fundamentals
Country Selection
Do current spread levels
compensate for default risk?
Default risk is based on ability of a country to withstand shocks – Debt level and structure
Fiscal balance- fiscal institutions (stabilizer funds)
Monetary / FX policy- int'l reserves, central bank
Financial sector- pension funds , banking sector, capital markets
Balance of payment
Political climate / Institutional strength
Transparency / governance
Economic growth
Security Selection
Are securities fairly priced?
Evaluate debt structure and debt management fundamentals
Source: GSAM. For illustrative purposes only. Please see additional disclosures.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Local Rates
Cross-country interest rate levels & shape of local market yield curve
Country Selection
Is there value in local debt?
Nominal interest rate
EM sovereign risk
Expected inflation differential
Expected EM exchange rate
Exchange rate risk
Security Selection
Are securities fairly priced?
Evaluate inflation breakeven vs. inflation
Value securities at different parts of the yield curve
Currency
Currency valuation relative to short and medium term fundamentals
Short term factors:
Investor positioning
Sentiment
Risk appetite
Momentum
Medium term factors:
Economic growth
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Current account
Capital account
Long term factors:
Purchasing power parity
Productivity
Terms of trade trends
Demographics
Corporates
Fundamental value and jurisdictional environment of corporate
Quantitative Analysis
Cash flow & asset quality
Capitalization & business risk
Technical Review
Corporate & capital structure
Indenture / covenant review
Qualitative Insight
Management quality
Business plan & industry exposure
Sovereign Analysis
Business environment
Potential for political interference
Currency and payment risk
Ability to enforce claims
38
Case study: Indonesia
Economists conduct “deep dive” into Indonesian macro story – country balance sheet, inflation, current and potential growth, balance of payments, fiscal and monetary policy.
For illustrative purposes only to represent our investment process. Performance results vary depending on the client’s investment goals, objectives, and constraints. There can be no assurance that the same or similar results to those presented above can or will be achieved. Any reference to a specific company or security does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or directly invest in thecompany or its securities. It should not be assumed that the recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities discussed in this document.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Discussion at weekly team meeting.
Traders note Indonesia external bonds trade cheap relative to comparable credits and external paper is attractive.
Team concludes external debt is preferable to local debt.
Traders implement local debt UW, external debt OW; agree on targets to exit
Economists express favorable view of external debt, but are concerned about sticky inflation, loose monetary policy and deteriorating current account balance.
Determine equilibrium interest rate above current base rate - local bonds too rich.
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3 Stage 4
Source: GSAM
Gov Debt/GDP
Year-on-year inflation (%) Indonesia Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Indo 2021 bonds vs Philippines 2021 bonds
Local versus external debt views driven by sovereign economists
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
39
Global Risk Factor Model (GRM)
Key Advantages of GRM
For illustrative purposes only. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk. Targets are subject to change and are current as of the date of this presentation. Targets are objectives and do not provide any assurance as to future results. Predicted tracking error are statistical estimates of the divergence between the price behavior of a strategy and the price behavior of its benchmark, derived from statistical models. Actual tracking errors are likely to vary from the predicted tracking error. Please see additional disclosures.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Directly Aligned to Our Investment Process
Risk is measured in the same way in which risk is taken in live portfolios
Decomposes Risk on a More Granular Level
Risk is measured through multiple lenses: Total portfolio level Individual strategy level Individual security level
Utilises Daily Data
Creates One Truly Global Standard for Measuring Risk
Changing market conditions can be captured earlier and the portfolio recalibrated accordingly
All portfolio managers, traders and analysts “speak the same languages” (e.g. view risk the same way across all portfolios and strategies)
Can easily identify the alpha and risk target of each specific portfolio
A top-level summary of each strategy’s current risk level
versus the targetTracking error target of
each strategy
40
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt PortfolioPerformance as of 30 September 2014
*Net returns reflect the maximum deductible fees; offshore mutual fund fees are negotiable, based on total mandate size and the level of client servicing required. Base Distribution Share Class: LU0110449138. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Fund inception date: 03-May-00. Please note that the fund operates a swing pricing policy. Investors should be aware that from time to time this may result in the fund performing differently compared to the reference benchmark based solely on the effect of swing pricing rather than price developments of underlying instruments. Please note that as of 24-June-2013 the fund has changed its pricing policy from bid basis to mid. price. Investors should note that this may have a positive impact on the fund NAV for that day and on its reported performance for any time period that includes that day.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
1-year 3-years, pa 5-years, pa Since Inception, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio (gross), % 10.60 9.97 9.97 12.24
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio (net), % 8.97 8.33 8.33 10.53
JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index (1 Day Lag), % 9.52 7.89 8.16 10.00
Gross Excess Return, bps 108 208 180 225
Tracking Error (gross), bps 112 141 149 267
Information Ratio (gross) 0.96 1.47 1.21 0.84
GrossExcessReturn (bps)
52 604 268 315 564 556 314 -58 -754 1057 278 45 400 75 51
9.6
16.1 15.7
25.6
17.2 15.913.1
5.4
-19.6
40.4
15.0
7.8
21.5
-4.5
8.88.4
14.2 13.8
23.6
15.3 14.0 11.5
3.9
-20.8
38.4
13.2
7.0
18.9
-6.0
7.59.1 10.0 13.0
22.5
11.6 10.3 10.0 6.0
-12.0
29.9
12.2 7.4
17.5
-5.3
8.2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000Partial
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio (gross) GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio (net)* JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index (1-Day Lag)
41
Prior to 01-Jan-2010 the portfolio was not
managed against a benchmark.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio Performance as of 30 September 2014
* Net returns reflect the maximum deductible fees; offshore mutual fund fees are negotiable, based on total mandate size and the level of client servicing required. Base Distribution Share Class: LU0302282511. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. Fund inception date: 29-Jun-07. Please note that prior to December 31, 2009, the GS Global Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio was managed in a benchmark-agnostic manner, i.e. not managed to a benchmark index. From January 1, 2010 the benchmark of the Portfolio will be the JPMGBI-EM Global Diversified Index. Please note that benchmark information shown on the Monthly Fund Update between March 31,2010 and May 31,2010 reflected the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Index (Day lag). However the benchmark of the Portfolio is the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Index. Please note that from June 30, 2010, the benchmark returns reflect the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Index.
GrossExcess
Return (bps)232 -83 494 10 -39
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
4.1%
18.0%
-2.6%
21.7%
-8.9%
-0.4%
2.2%
15.9%
-4.4%
19.6%
-10.5%
-1.8%
15.7%
-1.8%
16.8%
-9.0%
0.0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Since Inceptionto Dec-09
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio (gross) GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio (net)* JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Index (%)
Since inception to Dec-09, pa
2010 2011 2012 20132014 YTD
Since Inception, pa
Since Benchmark
Adoption, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio (gross), % 4.08 18 -2.58 21.69 -8.88 -0.40 4.78 5.18
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio (net), % 2.18 15.86 -4.4 19.56 -10.53 -1.77 2.87 4.10
JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified, % N/A 15.68 -1.75 16.76 -8.98 -0.01 N/A 4.05
Gross Excess Return, bps 232 -83 494 10 -39 113
Tracking Error (gross), bps 205 202 178 156 192
Information Ratio (gross) 1.13 -0.41 2.76 0.06 0.59
42
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond PortfolioPerformance as of 30 September 2014
Benchmarks: JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified. The returns are gross and do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees, which will reduce returns. Our investment advisory fees are described in Part 2 of our Form ADV. See additional disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Performance inception date: 17-May-11. Fund 7621. Please note that the fund operates a swing pricing policy. Investors should be aware that from time to time this may result in the fund performing differently compared to the reference benchmark based solely on the effect of swing pricing rather than price developments of underlying instruments. Please note that as of 24-June-2013 the fund has changed its pricing policy from bid basis to mid price. Investors should note that this may have a positive impact on the fund NAV for that day and on its reported performance for any time period that includes that day.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
GrossExcess
Return (bps)205 464 116 12
1-year, pa 3-years, pa Since Inception, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (gross), % 9.40 10.43 7.83
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (net), % 7.78 8.80 6.23
JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Index, % 8.33 8.09 5.53
Gross Excess Return, bps 107 234 230
Tracking Error (gross), bps 142 158 161
Information Ratio (gross) 0.75 1.48 1.43
0.8%
19.6%
0.6%
6.4%
-0.1%
17.8%
-0.9%
5.2%
-1.2%
15.0%
-0.6%
6.2%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 (Partial) 2012 2013 2014 YTD
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (gross) GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (net) JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified
43
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioPerformance as of 30 September 2014
* Benchmark : 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index. The returns are gross and do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees, which will reduce returns. Our investment advisory fees are described in Part 2 of our Form ADV. See additional disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Performance inception date: 08-May-13. Fund 8436. Please note that the fund operates a swing pricing policy. Investors should be aware that from time to time this may result in the fund performing differently compared to the reference benchmark based solely on the effect of swing pricing rather than price developments of underlying instruments. Please note that as of 24-June-2013 the fund has changed its pricing policy from bid basis to mid price. Investors should note that this may have a positive impact on the fund NAV for that day and on its reported performance for any time period that includes that day.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
YTD 1-Year Since Inception, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio (gross), % 3.85 5.71 -3.22
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio (net), % 2.58 3.99 -4.81
Custom Asset-Weighted Blended Benchmark *, % 3.56 3.67 -3.87
Gross Excess Return, bps 29 205 65
Tracking Error (Gross), bps 120 142
Information Ratio (Gross) 1.70 0.46
GrossExcess
Return (bps)61 29 65
-8.0%
3.8%
-3.2%
-9.0%
2.6%
-4.8%
-8.6%
3.6%
-3.9%
-12%
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
2013 (Partial) 2014 YTD Since Inception, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio (gross), % GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio (net), % Custom Asset-Weighted Blended Benchmark *
44
Why GSAM for Emerging Market Debt?
Source: GSAM. As of 31-Oct-14. For illustrative purposes only. Diversification does not protect an investor from market risk and does not ensure a profit. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The returns are gross and do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees, which will reduce returns.
GSAM Approach to Sovereign EMD
Team
Stable, global EMD team together since inception in 2000.
Leverages Global Fixed Income macro insights into commodities, currency, country, and duration risks.
Culture
Culture of dialogue and debate among economists, traders and analysts – a research-intensive process, in which each team member is accountable for strategy performance.
Constant re-evaluation “where can we be wrong in a quickly changing world?”
Approach
Diversified risk taking in top-down (macro/sovereign) and bottom-up (corporate/real economy) approach, with a focus on relative value (not beta)
Focus on liquidity minimise transaction costs stay nimble, maintain ability to shift portfolio
Risk management at the core of asset management
Ability to customise separately managed portfolio
GS Growth &
Emerging Markets
Debt Portfolio
outperformed
benchmark in
12 out of 14 years
IR of ~0.82 since
inception (gross
returns)
Appendix
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
47
Local Sovereign
Debt, 100%
JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified IndexLocal EMD
Top level statistics Country of risk breakdown (MV, %)
Sector breakdown (MV,%) Credit rating breakdown (MV, %)
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JP Morgan.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
Number of Holdings 200
Number of Countries 16
Average Rating BBB+
Coupon (%) 6.51
Yield to Worst (%) 6.42
Option Adjusted Duration (years) 4.87
Maturity (years) 7.04
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
7.9% 7.7%6.9%
6.3%
4.9%
2.5%1.9%
1.5%
0.4% 0.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
AA, 0.1%
A, 40.1%
BBB, 58.0%
BB, 1.9%
48
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local PortfolioInvestment objectives - set within a risk management framework
As of Oct-2014. Source: GSAM. Targets are subject to change and are current as of the date of this presentation. Targets are objectives and do not provide any assurance as to future results. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met.
Portfolio Targets
Base Distribution Share Class: LU0302282511
Gross excess return target of 2-3% per annum
Target tracking error of 2-4% per annum
Benchmark JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index
Typical Investments
EM sovereign & quasi-sovereign debt (external or local currency denominated)
EM corporate debt (external or local currency denominated)
Derivatives (includes US Treasury futures, currency forwards, interest rate swaps, credit default swaps, total return swaps, credit-linked notes)
Derivatives are used to access countries where physical bonds are not accessible or high transaction cost and low liquidity exist. Currency forwards are used to optimise our local currency positions.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
49
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local PortfolioPortfolio characteristics
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Portfolio holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.1. Non-Rated (NR) includes holdings of securities not rated by any major rating agency. Unrated securities held in the fund may be of higher, lower, or comparable credit quality to securities that have a credit rating from a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO). Therefore, investors should not assume that the unrated securities in the fund increase or decrease the fund’s overall credit quality. 2. Cash may include local currency, foreign currency, short-term investment funds, bank acceptances, commercial paper, margin, repurchase agreements, time deposits, variable-rate demand notes, and/or money market mutual funds. The Cash category may show a negative market value percentage as a result of a) the timing of trade date versus settlement date transactions and/or b) the portfolio’s derivative investments, which are collateralized by the portfolio’s available cash and securities. Such securities are AAA rated by an independent rating agency, have durations between -2 and 1 years, and are limited to the following sectors: governments, agencies, supranationals, corporates, and agency-backed adjustable-rate mortgages. These securities are not reclassified under the Cash category; rather, they remain classified under their proper descriptions (e.g., rating, sector, etc.).3. Derivatives may be used for hedging purposes and/or to express outright investment views. The table’s market value percentage total for derivatives reflects aggregated unrealized gains or losses on positions. * This portfolio/fund has not been rated by an independent rating agency. The credit allocation provided above refers to the Fund’s underlying portfolio securities. GSAM may receive credit quality ratings on the Fund’s underlying securities from the three major rating agencies - S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. GSAM develops the credit quality breakdown by taking the highest rating if more than one agency rates a security. GSAM will use a single rating if that is the only one available. Securities that are not rated by all three agencies are reflected as such in the breakdown. GSAM converts all ratings to the equivalent S&P major rating category when illustrating the Fund’s credit rating breakdown. Ratings and portfolio credit quality may change over time. Unrated securities do not necessarily indicate low quality, and for such securities the investment adviser will evaluate the credit quality.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio vs. JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified index
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
Portfolio Benchmark Difference Portfolio Benchmark Difference
Market value (MM) 2,500.74 1,052,901.91 AAA 2.96% 0.00% 2.96%
Number of Holdings 225 200 25 AA 0.51% 0.11% 0.41%
Number of Countries 34 16 18 A 39.72% 40.07% -0.34%
Average Credit Quality BBB BBB+ BBB 38.16% 57.97% -19.81%
Coupon (%) 6.51 6.51 0.00 BB 3.39% 1.85% 1.54%
Yield To Maturity (%) 6.65 6.42 0.22 B 1.48% 0.00% 1.48%
Yield To Worst (%) 6.64 6.42 0.22 CCC 0.30% 0.00% 0.30%
Current Yield (%) 5.89 6.26 (0.36) CC 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
C 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Option Adjusted Spread Duration (years) 3.48 4.76 (1.28) D 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Convexity 0.03 0.25 (0.22) NR1 11.58% 0.00% 11.58%
Maturity (years) 7.80 7.04 0.76 Cash2 3.08% 0.00% 3.08%
Derivatives3
-1.20% 0.00% -1.20%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Credit Rating Allocation*Top Level Statistics
50
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local PortfolioSector and currency distribution
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. * Cash includes cash-backed derivatives exposure such as currency forwards and the unrealised profit and loss from those derivatives exposures. Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Portfolio holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
Sector Allocation (Market Value, %)
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
External Sovereign Debt
2.14%
Local Sovereign Debt
88.18%
External Quasi-Sovereign Debt
0.41%
Local Quasi-Sovereign Debt
0.76%
External Corporate Debt
0.14%
Local Corporate Debt
1.34%
Other3.95%
Cash3.08%
Portfolio Benchmark Difference
United States (USD) 2.86% 0.00% 2.86%
India (INR) 1.47% 0.00% 1.47%
South Africa (ZAR) 11.36% 10.00% 1.36%
Dominican Republic (DOP) 1.21% 0.00% 1.21%
Malaysia (MYR) 10.90% 10.00% 0.90%
Mexico (MXN) 10.90% 10.00% 0.90%
Chile (CLP) 0.99% 0.11% 0.88%
Australia (AUD) 0.64% 0.00% 0.64%
Zambia (ZMW) 0.48% 0.00% 0.48%
Hungary (HUF) 5.42% 4.94% 0.48%
Costa Rica (CRC) 0.29% 0.00% 0.29%
Indonesia (IDR) 8.00% 7.74% 0.26%
Romania (RON) 2.52% 2.47% 0.05%
Russia (RUB) 6.30% 6.26% 0.04%
Thailand (THB) 6.92% 6.88% 0.03%
Nigeria (NGN) 1.88% 1.85% 0.03%
Peru (PEN) 1.50% 1.47% 0.03%
Israel (ILS) 0.01% 0.00% 0.01%
United Kingdom (GBP) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Poland (PLN) 9.86% 10.00% -0.14%
Turkey (TRY) 9.79% 10.00% -0.21%
Philippines (PHP) 0.01% 0.41% -0.40%
Colombia (COP) 7.44% 7.86% -0.42%
South Korea (KRW) -0.47% 0.00% -0.47%
Brazil (BRL) 8.91% 10.00% -1.09%
Japan (JPY) -1.26% 0.00% -1.26%
China (CNY) -1.55% 0.00% -1.55%
Singapore (SGD) -2.17% 0.00% -2.17%
Various (EUR) -4.19% 0.00% -4.19%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Active Currency (MV, %) (in descending order)
51
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local PortfolioCountry distribution
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio vs. JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index (market value, %)
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures. Portfolio
holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Un
ited
Sta
tes
India
So
uth
Afr
ica
Do
min
ica
n R
ep
ub
lic
Ma
lays
ia
Me
xico
Ch
ile
Pa
rag
ua
y
Indo
nesi
a
Au
stra
lia
Cro
atia
Za
mb
ia
Hu
nga
ry
Arg
en
tina
Co
sta
Ric
a
Ve
ne
zue
la
Ho
ndu
ras
Ru
ssia
Th
aila
nd
Pe
ru
Isra
el
Po
lan
d
Ph
ilipp
ines
Co
lom
bia
Ro
ma
nia
So
uth
Ko
rea
Nig
eri
a
Bra
zil
Jap
an
Ch
ina
Sin
ga
pore
Tu
rke
y
Eu
rop
ea
n U
nio
n
External Sovereign Debt Local Sovereign Debt External Quasi-Sovereign Debt Local Quasi-Sovereign Debt External Corporate Debt
Local Corporate Debt Currency Forward (FX) Cash Other Benchmark Total
Overweight Underweight
52
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local PortfolioCountry distribution
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures. Portfolio
holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio vs. JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index (spread duration, years)
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Bra
zil
Indo
nesia
So
uth
Afr
ica
Th
aila
nd
Hu
nga
ry
Pa
rag
ua
y
Do
min
ica
n R
ep
ub
lic
Ru
ssia
Cro
atia
Me
xic
o
Za
mb
ia
Sin
ga
pore
Arg
en
tina
Ve
ne
zue
la
Co
sta
Ric
a
Ho
ndu
ras
Isra
el
Pe
ru
Ro
ma
nia
Ph
ilipp
ines
Po
lan
d
Nig
eri
a
Co
lom
bia
Tu
rke
y
Ch
ile
Ch
ina
Ma
lays
ia
So
uth
Ko
rea
Un
ited
Sta
tes
External Sovereign Debt Local Sovereign Debt External Quasi-Sovereign Debt Local Quasi-Sovereign Debt External Corporate Debt
Local Corporate Debt Currency Forward (FX) Cash Other Benchmark Total
Overweight Underweight
53
Prior to 01-Jan-2010 the portfolio was not
managed against a benchmark.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio Performance as of 30 September 2014
* Net returns reflect the maximum deductible fees; offshore mutual fund fees are negotiable, based on total mandate size and the level of client servicing required. Base Distribution Share Class: LU0302282511. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. Fund inception date: 29-Jun-07. Please note that prior to December 31, 2009, the GS Global Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio was managed in a benchmark-agnostic manner, i.e. not managed to a benchmark index. From January 1, 2010 the benchmark of the Portfolio will be the JPMGBI-EM Global Diversified Index. Please note that benchmark information shown on the Monthly Fund Update between March 31,2010 and May 31,2010 reflected the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Index (Day lag). However the benchmark of the Portfolio is the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Index. Please note that from June 30, 2010, the benchmark returns reflect the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Index.
GrossExcess
Return (bps)232 -83 494 10 -39
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
4.1%
18.0%
-2.6%
21.7%
-8.9%
-0.4%
2.2%
15.9%
-4.4%
19.6%
-10.5%
-1.8%
15.7%
-1.8%
16.8%
-9.0%
0.0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Since Inceptionto Dec-09
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio (gross) GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio (net)* JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Index (%)
Since inception to Dec-09, pa
2010 2011 2012 20132014 YTD
Since Inception, pa
Since Benchmark
Adoption, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio (gross), % 4.08 18 -2.58 21.69 -8.88 -0.40 4.78 5.18
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio (net), % 2.18 15.86 -4.4 19.56 -10.53 -1.77 2.87 4.10
JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified, % N/A 15.68 -1.75 16.76 -8.98 -0.01 N/A 4.05
Gross Excess Return, bps 232 -83 494 10 -39 113
Tracking Error (gross), bps 205 202 178 156 192
Information Ratio (gross) 1.13 -0.41 2.76 0.06 0.59
54
RisksGS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
Market risk - the value of assets in the Portfolio is typically dictated by a number of factors, including the confidence levels of the market in which they are traded.
Contingent Convertible (“Coco”) Bond Risk - investment in this particular type of bond may result in material losses to the Portfolio based on certain trigger events. The existence of these trigger events creates a different type of risk from traditional bonds and may more likely result in a partial or total loss of value or alternatively they may be converted into shares of the issuing company which may also have suffered a loss in value. Such trigger events may include a reduction in the issuers' capital ratio, determination by a regulator or the injection of capital by a national authority. Investors should be aware that in the event of a financial crisis that action by regulators or the companies themselves may cause concentrations of these trigger events across the Portfolio.
Operational risk - material losses to the Portfolio may arise as a result of human error, system and/or process failures, inadequate procedures or controls.
Liquidity risk - the Portfolio may not always find another party willing to purchase an asset that the Portfolio wants to sell which could impact the Portfolio's ability to meet redemption requests on demand.
Exchange rate risk - changes in exchange rates may reduce or increase the returns an investor might expect to receive independent of the performance of such assets. If applicable, investment techniques used to attempt to reduce the risk of currency movements (hedging), may not be effective. Hedging also involves additional risks associated with derivatives.
Custodian risk - insolvency, breaches of duty of care or misconduct of a custodian or sub-custodian responsible for the safekeeping of the Portfolio's assets can result in loss to the Portfolio.
Interest rate risk - when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, reflecting the ability of investors to obtain a more attractive rate of interest on their money elsewhere. Bond prices are therefore subject to movements in interest rates which may move for a number of reasons, political as well as economic.
Credit risk - The failure of a counterparty or an issuer of a financial asset held within the Portfolio to meet its payment obligations will have a negative impact on the Portfolio.
Derivatives risk - certain derivatives may result in losses greater than the amount originally invested.
Counterparty risk - a party that the Portfolio transacts with may fail to meet its obligations which could cause losses.
Emerging markets risk - emerging markets are likely to bear higher risk due to lower liquidity and possible lack of adequate financial, legal, social, political and economic structures, protection and stability as well as uncertain tax positions.
For full description of risks please refer to the Prospectus.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
56
Cross-pollination of ideas between EMD and other Fixed Income teams
As of 31-Oct-14. For illustrative purposes only.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Currency
Global Commodities
Money Markets
SecuritisedCross Sector
Duration
Emerging Market Debt
Global Equity Team
Corporates
EMD Team Floor Plan in New York
US Corporate
Credit (+35)
Emerging Market
Debt (+9)
GlobalCommodities
(+5)
TSY/ MBS (+12)
Risk (+4)
Global Fixed Income Teams
The Emerging Markets team benefits from synergies with other GSAM FI teams
The EMD team in New York is seated between the US Corporate Credit and the Global Commodities teams
Treasury/MBS professionals are close-by to advise on duration and interest rate exposure
57
The GSAM EMD team – Specialists across EMD asset classes
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Head of Emerging Markets DebtSam Finkelstein (18)
Responsible for overall portfolio
risk including beta decisions.
Sovereign Economists
Sovereign Analysis
Responsible for sovereign
research and making
recommendations on debt and
currency positioning
Traders
Security Selection
Responsible for trading debt and
currencies managing liquidity and
making security selection
recommendations
EM Corporate Credit
EM Corporate Analysis
Responsible for fundamental
corporate research and portfolio
construction
Portfolio Managers
Portfolio Monitoring
Responsible for setting and
monitoring portfolio risk budgets
& guidelines and communicating
strategy to investors
Owi Ruivivar (17)
Location Key
New York Tokyo
London Bangalore
Singapore Argentina
Sabriyah Denham2 (11)
Sam Zhang (3)
Yacov Arnopolin (15)
The Emerging Markets Debt
team benefits from synergies
with other GSAM teams:
Commodities Team
Global Corporate Credit
Team
Duration and Country Teams
Global Equity Team
Ricardo Penfold (17)
Diego Sasson * (7)
Francesca Fornasari1 (16)
Kozo Mitamura (18)
Vladimir Liberzon (13) External Debt
Michael Jalkut (15) Local Rates
David Bowen1 (21) FX
Neil Squires (13)
Jacqueline Leary (6)
Nick Saunders (13)
Salman Niaz (14)
Hubert Chu (9)
Aakash Thombre (7)
Prashant Bajaj (4)
Krishnan V R (3)
Kunal Singh (8)
Ben Stein (4)
Prakriti Sofat (9)
Pratik Chaudhuri (1)
Numbers in parentheses ( ) indicate years of investment experience, as of 4-Nov-14.* Economist spends his time in New York and Argentina¹ Member of the GSAM Currency team covering EM and G10 currencies. ² Global Fixed Income Trader who trades Emerging Market Asia sovereign and corporate debt as part of her responsibilities in Singapore. In addition GSAM has a local presence in Beijing where the team provide local market analysis
Clearly defined roles and responsibilities
58
EM corporate credit team
Note: As of Oct-14. For illustrative purpose only. Years of experience in parenthesis.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
EM Corporate Credit Team leverages broad GSAM platform
Nicholas Saunders (13)
Salman Niaz (14)
Hubert Chu (9)
Aakash Thombre (7)
Prashant Bajaj (4)
Krishnan V R (3)
Kunal Singh (8)
Sam Zhang (3)
Pratik Chaudhuri (1)
EM Corporate Credit Team 4 Professionals
Fundamental analysis on macroeconomics and politics
EM Sovereign Research
7 Professionals
Evaluate global and local markets and identify relative value opportunities
EM Traders
60+ Professionals
Industry expertise and relative value
Corporate credit team
30+ Professionals
Leverage local knowledge of companies, markets, industries, and key individuals
EM Equities Team
7 Professionals
Derive economics-based currency views
Currency Team
4 Professionals
Identify near term trends and longer term structural views
Commodities Team
59
EM corporate investment process
Note: This information is shown for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate our investment process and is not indicative of future portfolio characteristics/returns. Actual results may vary for each client due to specific client guidelines and other factors. Targets are subject to change and are current as of the date of this presentation. Targets are objectives and do not provide any assurance as to future results. Please see additional disclosures. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Client and Portfolio Manager agree on Risk Budget (typically 200-300 bps for EM Corporates).
Risk Budget
ClientPortfolio Manager
EM Corp Analysts follow existing and new issuance.
EM Corp team liaises with Sovereign Economists, Global Corp team, Commodities team.
Nicholas Saunders oversees sector and security selection.
Security Selection
EM Corporate AnalystsNicholas Saunders as Head of EM Corp team
Traders implement recommendations with a view to liquidity and relative value.
Traders and EM Corp team monitors issuer, country, sector concentrations.
Risk Team monitors portfolio using proprietary GRM model.
Implementation &
Risk Management
TradersRisk Team
EM Corp team follows individual companies and sectors.
Sam Finkelstein oversees overall portfolio construction and beta.
Portfolio Manager monitors risk levels across strategies and total portfolio.
Portfolio
Monitoring
EM Corporate AnalystsSam Finkelstein
Portfolio Manager
EMD Corporate Team
Nicholas Saunders
Security Selection
Head of Emerging Markets Debt
Sam Finkelstein
Monitor Portfolio Risk Exposures and Investment Ideas
60
EM corporate selection parameters
Source: GSAM. For illustrative use only
Checklist:
Corporate history
Complexity of corporate
structure
Key shareholder profiles
Related party
transactions?
Auditors/Recent change?
Board of Directors –Turnover?
Management – Tenure?
Equity stake? Conflicts of
Interest?
Disclosure -
Transparency? Regular
updates?
Off balance sheet
transactions?
Contingent Liabilities?
Corporate Governance
EM Corporate Team
Country Fundamentals and
Business Environment
Potential for Political Support
or Interference
Currency & Payment Risk
Ability to enforce claims/
Rule of Law
Sovereign Analysis
Sovereign Economists
Local Analysts
Current Outlook from
Commodities Team
e.g., Base Metals vs Oil
Views from Sector Specialists
on DM Corporate Team
e.g., Auto sector
e.g., Energy sector
Views on Individual Sectors
based on Bottom-up Analysis
of Various Companies
e.g., Chinese
Homebuilders
Industry / Sector Views
DM Corporate Team
Commodities Team
EM Corporate Team
Fundamentals
Quantitative Analysis
– Cash flow & asset
quality
– Capitalisation
versus
business risk
Technical Review
– Corporate & capital
structure
– Indenture /
covenant reviews
Qualitative Insight
– Management
quality,
business plan
Valuation
Vs DM Corporates
Vs EM Sovereigns
Vs EM Competitors
Vs other bonds on curve
Individual Corporate
Views
EM Corporate Team
DM Corporate Team
EM Equities Team
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Analysis of issuers in the CEMBI index
Focus on a universe of the most liquid investable securities
Judgment of experienced traders
Issuers we deem less liquid should offer an additional spread which we view as liquidity premium
Liquidity Analysis
EM Corporate Team
61
EM corporate selection parametersCorporate Governance Checklist
Source: GSAM. For illustrative purposes only.The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
GSAM is focused on corporate governance as a way to minimise risk of fraud and mismanagement.
We have analysed nearly a decade of cases in Emerging and Developed Markets to identify Red Flags.
We seek to identify key risks that could drive mark-to-market losses.
Corporate History How long has the Company carried on its current business lines?How complex is the corporate structure?
Capital Market Actions (CMA) Date & Size of Most Recent CMA, Type & UnderwritersHave underwriters been involved in any failed deals in past?
Onshore Banking Relationships
Description of Onshore Bank relationshipsYear, Size, Drawn/Undrawn Maturity
Shareholders Who are the key shareholders? How long have they held shares?Description and magnitude of any related party transactions.
Auditors Have auditors changed in past five years and, if so, when?List of current and previous Auditors. Why were there any changes?
Board of Directors Number of members (from key shareholders or management?)Longevity and qualifications of the audit committee (AC)
Management What is the tenure and pay of the senior managers - CEO/CFO/HR?Do the senior managers have any investment in the company?
Disclosure How Transparent? Areas of concern?Does the company provide regular updates to the market?
Other Is there any research on the company?Any off balance sheet transactions? Any contingent liabilities?
62
Arriving at an EMD corporate portfolioConsiderations in optimal portfolio construction process
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Top-DownMacroViews
FinalPortfolio
Top Names:Based on Valuation / Fundamentals
~150 Names
Liquidity Filter:Remaining Universe
~350 Names
CEMBI Broad Diversified Universe:~540 Names
Source: GSAM. For illustrative purposes only. Performance results vary depending on the client’s investment goals, objectives, and constraints. There can be no assurance that the same or similar results to those presented above can or will be achieved. This example has been chosen as it is representative of our corporate investment process
Final
Portfolio
Valuation and Risk Management:
Risk / Reward
Sizing / Concentration
CEMBI Broad Diversified Universe:
~531 NamesOff-BenchmarkOpportunities:
~50 names
5 Pillar Framework
I. Fundamentals / Valuations
II. Industry III. Country IV. Liquidity V. Governance
63
EM corporate selectionTamale: Research Platform Shared Across Fixed Income and Equities
Source: GSAM . The above screenshots are shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to invest in any particular company or asset class. GSAM leverages the resources of Goldman, Sachs & Co. subject to legal, internal and regulatory restrictions
Tamale allows us to bring together our most important credit research onto a single platform.
Research can be stored and retrieved in a variety of ways, including ticker symbol, analyst name, investment theme, source, sector, or country
Search by ticker/company, industry name or subject.
Several ways to filter contributors, including by the entire credit team and the FE team, or individual groups (EM/HY/IG).
Search box defaults to ticker or subject only. You can see all posts by clicking on “All”. “+1” shows you the ticker, plus related entities.
Search for any term (e.g., LBOs, regulation) in a note using this box.
Key data (e.g., recommendation, credit trend, downgrade risk) on a credit shows up here. This feeds into Zephyr as well.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
64
EM corporate case studySample EM corporate credit events
Source: GSAM. For illustrative purposes only. Performance results vary depending on the client’s investment goals, objectives, and constraints. There can be no assurance that the same or similar results to those presented above can or will be achieved. This example has been chosen as it is representative of our corporate investment process
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Examples Country Sector Credit Event GSAM Rationale for not Holding the Bond
Security 1 South Africa Financial August 2014Subprime lender with poor capitalization ratios and questionable underwriting standards given challenging macro outlook
Security 2 Ukraine Agriculture August 2014Price pressures, difficulty in obtaining working capital facilities and worsening liquidity, high degree of short term debt
Security 3
Latin American countries, incl. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico
Telecommunications August 2014Deteriorating market position, inadequate funding to execute high risk strategy, high leverage
Security 4 Brazil Consumer March 2014Negative view on a sector, poor company productivity and cost competitiveness, weak funding position
Security 5 Mexico Oil services February 2014Concern over risk of corruption and politics in contract bidding process, customer concentration risk
Security 6 Mexico Homebuilder April 2013 Weak company and sector fundamentals
Security 7 Brazil Banking September 2012 Weak funding position
Security 8 Brazil Utility February 2012 High leverage and high liquidity risk
Security 9 Indonesia Shipping January 2012 High leverage and challenging industry outlook
Security 10 China Forestry March 2012Concern over corporate governance, especially around limited disclosure of customer base
Security 11 Dom. Rep. Real estate November 2011 Volatile nature of high end real estate sold to foreigners
Security 12 Panama Real estate November 2011 Volatile nature of high end real estate sold to foreigners
Security 13 Dubai Various November 2009 Weak stand-alone fundamentals
Security 14 Ukraine Pipelines September 2009 Weak stand-alone fundamentals
Security 15 China Industrial September 2009 Weak stand-alone fundamentals
Security 16 Mexico Industrial March 2009 High leverage in a cyclical industry
65
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12
Case study: Brazil
EM Corporate analysts update local
sector and individual company models to
reflect downward revision in Brazil's
GDP forecast by GSAM EMD
economists.
For illustrative purposes only to represent our investment process. Performance results vary depending on the client’s investment goals, objectives, and constraints. There can be no assurance that the same or similar results to those presented above can or will be achieved. Any reference to a specific company or security does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or directly invest in thecompany or its securities. It should not be assumed that the recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities discussed in this document.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
EM Corporate analysts discuss impact
with food sector specialist on US
Corporate team regarding severity and
duration of sector impact in past cycles.
EM Corporate analysts discuss relative
value, liquidity, and transaction costs with
EMD traders. Jointly develop a trading
strategy (timing, limit levels) and set target
price to sell and price to re-enter the name.
EM Corporate analysts consult with
GSAM Commodities team to discuss
projections for agricultural prices, and
corn in particular. Outlook is for
protracted period of elevated prices
which bodes poorly for companies in
food sector.
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3 Stage 5
Corn and Soybean prices have climbed steadily
Brazil Real GDP YoY (% Change) SA 1995=100 Brazil Industrial Production NSA YoY
EM Corporate analysts identify portfolio companies
most vulnerable to higher crop prices, assess where
spreads do not reflect potential credit impact. Model
lags in pass-through of higher prices based on
experience in global markets and any country- or
company-specific mitigating factors. Assess long-
term structural view as well as near-term risks.
Stage 4
Pre-emptive sale of corporate
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.501 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
450
550
650
750
850
Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
Corn Futures Dec12 (LHS)
Soybean Future Nov-12 (RHS)
66
32%
15%14%
10%7% 7%
5% 5% 4%1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4 5.24.8
4.64.2
1.8
1.20.8
0.50.2 0.2 0.2
4.94.5
1.3
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1
5.0
4.23.7
0.70.5 0.3 0.2 0.2
3.0
1.10.7 0.5 0.3 0.3
5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
4.13.8
2.52.2
1.8
1.10.9
0.1 0.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Me
xic
o
Bra
zil
Colo
mbia
Chile
Pe
ru
Jam
aic
a
Arg
en
tina
Gu
ate
mala
Trin
idad
& T
ob
ago
Pa
rag
ua
y
El S
alv
ad
or
Dom
Re
p
Russia
Tu
rke
y
Ka
zakh
sta
n
Ukra
ine
Po
lan
d
Czech
Rep
Hu
nga
ry
Azerb
aija
n
Cro
atia
UA
E
Qa
tar
Isra
el
Ku
wait
Sa
ud
i A
rab
ia
Ba
hra
in
Om
an
Ira
q
So
uth
Afr
ica
Nig
eri
a
Mo
rocc
o
Gh
ana
Eg
ypt
Za
mb
ia
Hon
g K
on
g
India
Ko
rea
Chin
a
Sin
ga
pore
Th
aila
nd
Ph
ilipp
ines
Indo
nesia
Ma
lays
ia
Ma
cau
Ta
iwan
Mo
ng
olia
Ba
ng
lade
sh
Mark
et
Valu
e (
%)
JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified IndexCorporate EMD
Top level statistics Credit bucket breakdown (MV,%) Industry breakdown (MV,%)
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: JP Morgan, GSAM calculations.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Amount outstanding (US$, bn) 285
Market cap (US$, bn) 295
No of issues/securities 1,141
No of issuers 544
No of countries 50
Average credit rating BBB-
Yield to Maturity (%) 4.90
Spread (bps) 310
Average term remain (years) 8.12
Average Duration 4.93
Europe: 13%Latin America: 29% Middle East: 15% Asia: 38%Africa: 6%
Investment Grade67.1%
High Yield32.9%
67
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond PortfolioInvestment objectives - set within a risk management framework
As of Oct-2014. Source: GSAM. Targets are subject to change and are current as of the date of this presentation. Targets are objectives and do not provide any assurance as to future results. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met.
Portfolio Targets Gross target excess return 2% per annum
Target tracking error 2.5% per annum
Benchmark JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index
Typical Investments
EM corporate debt (external or local currency denominated)
EM sovereign & quasi-sovereign debt (external or local currency denominated)
Derivatives (includes US Treasury futures, currency forwards, interest rate swaps, credit default swaps, total return swaps, credit-linked notes)
Derivatives are used to access countries where physical bonds are not accessible or high transaction cost and low liquidity exist. Currency forwards are used to optimise our local currency positions.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
68
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond PortfolioPortfolio characteristics
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Portfolio holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.1. Non-Rated (NR) includes holdings of securities not rated by any major rating agency. Unrated securities held in the fund may be of higher, lower, or comparable credit quality to securities that have a credit rating from a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO). Therefore, investors should not assume that the unrated securities in the fund increase or decrease the fund’s overall credit quality. 2. Cash may include local currency, foreign currency, short-term investment funds, bank acceptances, commercial paper, margin, repurchase agreements, time deposits, variable-rate demand notes, and/or money market mutual funds. The Cash category may show a negative market value percentage as a result of a) the timing of trade date versus settlement date transactions and/or b) the portfolio’s derivative investments, which are collateralized by the portfolio’s available cash and securities. Such securities are AAA rated by an independent rating agency, have durations between -2 and 1 years, and are limited to the following sectors: governments, agencies, supranationals, corporates, and agency-backed adjustable-rate mortgages. These securities are not reclassified under the Cash category; rather, they remain classified under their proper descriptions (e.g., rating, sector, etc.).3. Derivatives may be used for hedging purposes and/or to express outright investment views. The table’s market value percentage total for derivatives reflects aggregated unrealized gains or losses on positions. * This portfolio/fund has not been rated by an independent rating agency. The credit allocation provided above refers to the Fund’s underlying portfolio securities. GSAM may receive credit quality ratings on the Fund’s underlying securities from the three major rating agencies - S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. GSAM develops the credit quality breakdown by taking the highest rating if more than one agency rates a security. GSAM will use a single rating if that is the only one available. Securities that are not rated by all three agencies are reflected as such in the breakdown. GSAM converts all ratings to the equivalent S&P major rating category when illustrating the Fund’s credit rating breakdown. Ratings and portfolio credit quality may change over time. Unrated securities do not necessarily indicate low quality, and for such securities the investment adviser will evaluate the credit quality.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio vs. JPMorgan CEMBI Broad Diversified
Portfolio Benchmark Difference Portfolio Benchmark Difference
Market value (MM) 114.99 295,725.64 AAA 3.87% 0.18% 3.68%
Number of Holdings 176 1,141 (965) AA 1.39% 7.00% -5.60%
Number of Countries 33 50 (17) A 11.57% 21.91% -10.34%
Average Credit Quality BBB- BBB- BBB 40.80% 41.57% -0.77%
Coupon (%) 5.77 5.50 0.27 BB 18.54% 14.96% 3.58%
Yield To Maturity (%) 5.26 4.90 0.36 B 8.70% 7.27% 1.42%
Yield To Worst (%) 5.15 4.83 0.32 CCC 1.99% 1.93% 0.06%
Current Yield (%) 5.69 5.36 0.32 CC 0.00% 0.03% -0.03%
Option Adjusted Duration (years) 4.02 4.93 (0.91) C 0.00% 0.03% -0.03%
Option Adjusted Spread Duration (years) 3.75 4.92 (1.18) D 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Convexity 0.19 0.34 (0.15) NR1 9.38% 5.12% 4.27%
Maturity (years) 9.44 8.12 1.32 Cash2 3.96% 0.00% 3.96%
LIBOR OAS (bps) 346 310 36 Derivatives3
-0.20% 0.00% -0.20%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Credit Rating Allocation*Top Level Statistics
69
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond PortfolioSector and currency distribution
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Portfolio holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.Cash may include local currency, foreign currency, short-term investment funds, bank acceptances, commercial paper, margin, repurchase agreements, time deposits, variable-rate demand notes, and/or money market mutual funds. The Cash category may show a negative market value percentage as a result of a) the timing of trade date versus settlement date transactions and/or b) the portfolio’s derivative investments, which are collateralised by the portfolio’s available cash and securities. Such securities are AAA rated by an independent rating agency, have durations between -2 and 1 years, and are limited to the following sectors: governments, agencies, supranationals, corporates, and agency-backed adjustable-rate mortgages. These securities are not reclassified under the Cash category; rather,
they remain classified under their proper descriptions (e.g., rating, sector, etc.). Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Sector Allocation (Market Value, %)
External Sovereign Debt
3.67%
External Quasi-Sovereign Debt
17.90%Local Quasi-
Sovereign Debt0.55%
External Corporate Debt
66.22%
Local Corporate Debt
2.75%
Other4.95%
Cash3.96%
Portfolio Benchmark Difference
Various (EUR) 0.20% 0.00% 0.20%
Mexico (MXN) 0.04% 0.00% 0.04%
China (CNY) 0.03% 0.00% 0.03%
Brazil (BRL) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Hong Kong (HKD) -0.03% 0.00% -0.03%
United States (USD) 99.76% 100.00% -0.24%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Active Currency (MV, %) (in descending order)
70
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Ch
ile
Italy
Pa
rag
ua
y
Ch
ina
Pe
ru
Isra
el
Gu
ate
mala
Ph
ilipp
ines
Ka
zakh
sta
n
Do
min
ica
n R
ep
ub
lic
Arg
en
tina
Jam
aic
a
Vie
tna
m
Ba
ng
lade
sh
Co
lom
bia
Indo
nesia
Luxe
mb
ourg
Ukra
ine
Cro
atia
Mo
ng
olia
Om
an
Vir
gin
Isla
nd
s (b
ritish
)
Azerb
aija
n
Hu
nga
ry
El S
alv
ad
or
Bra
zil
Ca
nad
a
Ba
hra
in
Su
pra
na
tiona
l
Czech
Rep
ublic
Ta
iwa
n
Nig
eri
a
Ma
cau
Ba
rba
do
s
Sa
ud
i A
rab
ia
Po
lan
d
Ru
ssia
Th
aila
nd
Mo
rocc
o
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Ku
wa
it
Un
ite
d A
rab
Em
ira
tes
Eu
rop
ea
n U
nio
n
Me
xic
o
Ma
lays
ia
Tu
rke
y
Sin
ga
pore
Ho
ng K
on
g
Qa
tar
So
uth
Afr
ica
India
So
uth
Ko
rea
Ma
rket
va
ule
(%
)
External Sovereign Debt Local Sovereign Debt External Quasi-Sovereign Debt Local Quasi-Sovereign Debt External Corporate Debt
Local Corporate Debt Currency Forward (FX) Cash Other Benchmark Total
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond PortfolioCountry distribution
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio vs. JPMorgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index (market value, %)
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures. Portfolio
holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Overweight Underweight
71
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Chile
Unite
d A
rab
Em
ira
tes
Pe
ru
Italy
Ph
ilipp
ines
Pa
rag
ua
y
Arg
en
tina
Gu
ate
mala
Vie
tna
m
Dom
inic
an R
ep
ub
lic
Bra
zil
Jam
aic
a
Ba
ng
lade
sh
Luxe
mb
ourg
Ka
zakh
sta
n
Ukra
ine
Eu
rop
ea
n U
nio
n
Russia
Mo
ng
olia
Cro
atia
Vir
gin
Isla
nd
s (b
ritish
)
Om
an
Azerb
aija
n
El S
alv
ad
or
Hun
ga
ry
Nig
eri
a
Su
pra
na
tiona
l
Ba
hra
in
Can
ad
a
Sa
ud
i A
rab
ia
Isra
el
Ba
rba
do
s
Ta
iwan
Indo
nesia
Po
lan
d
Ku
wait
Ma
cau
Unite
d K
ing
do
m
Czech
Rep
ublic
Chin
a
Co
lom
bia
Mo
rocc
o
Ma
lays
ia
Tu
rke
y
Th
aila
nd
So
uth
Afr
ica
Hon
g K
on
g
Sin
ga
pore
India
Me
xic
o
Qa
tar
So
uth
Ko
rea
Unite
d S
tate
s
Sp
read
du
rati
on
(ye
ars
)
External Sovereign Debt Local Sovereign Debt External Quasi-Sovereign Debt Local Quasi-Sovereign Debt External Corporate Debt
Local Corporate Debt Currency Forward (FX) Cash Other Benchmark Total
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond PortfolioCountry distribution
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio vs. JPMorgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index (spread duration, years)
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures. Portfolio
holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Overweight Underweight
72
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio vs. JPMorgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index (spread duration, years)
Industry distribution
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Portfolio holdings may not be representative of current or future
investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
1.17
0.46
0.190.14 0.11
0.00
0.32
0.08
0.78
0.470.530.54
0.01
0.15 0.14 0.12
0.02
0.57
0.37
0.15
0.89
0.63
1.33
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Sp
rea
d D
ura
tio
n (
ye
ars
)
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio Benchmark
73
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt PortfolioPerformance as of 30 September 2014
*Net returns reflect the maximum deductible fees; offshore mutual fund fees are negotiable, based on total mandate size and the level of client servicing required. Base Distribution Share Class: LU0110449138. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Fund inception date: 03-May-00. Please note that the fund operates a swing pricing policy. Investors should be aware that from time to time this may result in the fund performing differently compared to the reference benchmark based solely on the effect of swing pricing rather than price developments of underlying instruments. Please note that as of 24-June-2013 the fund has changed its pricing policy from bid basis to mid. price. Investors should note that this may have a positive impact on the fund NAV for that day and on its reported performance for any time period that includes that day.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
1-year 3-years, pa 5-years, pa Since Inception, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio (gross), % 10.60 9.97 9.97 12.24
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio (net), % 8.97 8.33 8.33 10.53
JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index (1 Day Lag), % 9.52 7.89 8.16 10.00
Gross Excess Return, bps 108 208 180 225
Tracking Error (gross), bps 112 141 149 267
Information Ratio (gross) 0.96 1.47 1.21 0.84
GrossExcessReturn (bps)
52 604 268 315 564 556 314 -58 -754 1057 278 45 400 75 51
9.6
16.1 15.7
25.6
17.2 15.913.1
5.4
-19.6
40.4
15.0
7.8
21.5
-4.5
8.88.4
14.2 13.8
23.6
15.3 14.0 11.5
3.9
-20.8
38.4
13.2
7.0
18.9
-6.0
7.59.1 10.0 13.0
22.5
11.6 10.3 10.0 6.0
-12.0
29.9
12.2 7.4
17.5
-5.3
8.2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000Partial
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio (gross) GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio (net)* JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index (1-Day Lag)
74
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond PortfolioPerformance as of 30 September 2014
Benchmarks: JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified. The returns are gross and do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees, which will reduce returns. Our investment advisory fees are described in Part 2 of our Form ADV. See additional disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Performance inception date: 17-May-11. Fund 7621. Please note that the fund operates a swing pricing policy. Investors should be aware that from time to time this may result in the fund performing differently compared to the reference benchmark based solely on the effect of swing pricing rather than price developments of underlying instruments. Please note that as of 24-June-2013 the fund has changed its pricing policy from bid basis to mid price. Investors should note that this may have a positive impact on the fund NAV for that day and on its reported performance for any time period that includes that day.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
GrossExcess
Return (bps)205 464 116 12
1-year, pa 3-years, pa Since Inception, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (gross), % 9.40 10.43 7.83
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (net), % 7.78 8.80 6.23
JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Index, % 8.33 8.09 5.53
Gross Excess Return, bps 107 234 230
Tracking Error (gross), bps 142 158 161
Information Ratio (gross) 0.75 1.48 1.43
0.8%
19.6%
0.6%
6.4%
-0.1%
17.8%
-0.9%
5.2%
-1.2%
15.0%
-0.6%
6.2%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 (Partial) 2012 2013 2014 YTD
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (gross) GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (net) JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified
75
Carve-out performance: GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (ex-active developed markets duration strategy)
Carve-out performance, in USD, as of 31 October 2014
Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Benchmarks: JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified. Performance in USD. The returns are gross and do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees, which will reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Performance inception date: 17-May-11. The data shown is of a carve-out, is for informational purposes only and is not indicative of future portfolio characteristics/returns. Actual results may vary for each client due to specific client guidelines and
other factors.
GSAM does not currently manage a global corporate emerging market debt ex-duration portfolio that is appropriate to present for the investment strategy being proposed for you. Calculations and assumptions: 1Gross Excess Return= Gross Performance for the GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio - Performance for the JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Index. Gross Excess Return –Duration has been calculated to illustrate the performance of the GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio excluding the impact of developed market interest rate movements. We have subtracted the attribution to developed market interest rates for each discrete period given from the performance to show this.
GrossExcessReturn1
ex-Duration (bps)
177 459 87 67
1-year, pa 3-years, pa Since Inception, pa
Gross Excess Return for the GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (ex-duration), bps
37 197 205
JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Index, % 6.92 6.73 5.67
Gross Excess Return1- Duration, bps -93 17 53
Gross Excess Return1- Duration GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio (ex-duration), bps
130 180 152
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2011 (Partial) 2012 2013 2014 YTD
%
Gross Excess Return - Duration JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Index
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
76
RisksGS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
Market risk - the value of assets in the Portfolio is typically dictated by a number of factors, including the confidence levels of the market in which they are traded.
Contingent Convertible (“Coco”) Bond Risk - investment in this particular type of bond may result in material losses to the Portfolio based on certain trigger events. The existence of these trigger events creates a different type of risk from traditional bonds and may more likely result in a partial or total loss of value or alternatively they may be converted into shares of the issuing company which may also have suffered a loss in value. Such trigger events may include a reduction in the issuers' capital ratio, determination by a regulator or the injection of capital by a national authority. Investors should be aware that in the event of a financial crisis that action by regulators or the companies themselves may cause concentrations of these trigger events across the Portfolio.
Operational risk - material losses to the Portfolio may arise as a result of human error, system and/or process failures, inadequate procedures or controls.
Liquidity risk - the Portfolio may not always find another party willing to purchase an asset that the Portfolio wants to sell which could impact the Portfolio's ability to meet redemption requests on demand.
Exchange rate risk - changes in exchange rates may reduce or increase the returns an investor might expect to receive independent of the performance of such assets. If applicable, investment techniques used to attempt to reduce the risk of currency movements (hedging), may not be effective. Hedging also involves additional risks associated with derivatives.
Custodian risk - insolvency, breaches of duty of care or misconduct of a custodian or sub-custodian responsible for the safekeeping of the Portfolio's assets can result in loss to the Portfolio.
Interest rate risk - when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, reflecting the ability of investors to obtain a more attractive rate of interest on their money elsewhere. Bond prices are therefore subject to movements in interest rates which may move for a number of reasons, political as well as economic.
Credit risk - The failure of a counterparty or an issuer of a financial asset held within the Portfolio to meet its payment obligations will have a negative impact on the Portfolio.
Derivatives risk - certain derivatives may result in losses greater than the amount originally invested.
Counterparty risk - a party that the Portfolio transacts with may fail to meet its obligations which could cause losses.
Emerging markets risk - emerging markets are likely to bear higher risk due to lower liquidity and possible lack of adequate financial, legal, social, political and economic structures, protection and stability as well as uncertain tax positions.
For full description of risks please refer to the Prospectus.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
78
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioPortfolio characteristics
As of Sep-2014. Source: GSAM. Targets are subject to change and are current as of the date of this presentation. Targets are objectives and do not provide any assurance as to future results. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. Derivatives are used to access countries where physical bonds are not accessible or high transaction cost and low liquidity exist. Currency forwards are used to optimise our local currency positions.
Portfolio Targets
Gross target excess return 1.50% - 2.50% per annum
Target tracking error 2.50% - 3.00% per annum
Active asset allocation between three sub-sectors
Active US interest rate duration hedging
Benchmark 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan
CEMBI Broad Diversified Index
Typical Investments
EM sovereign & quasi-sovereign debt (external or local currency denominated)
EM corporate debt (external or local currency denominated)
Derivatives (includes US Treasury futures, currency forwards, interest rate swaps, credit default swaps, total
return swaps, credit-linked notes)
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
EM USD Sovn.~20%
EM USD Corp~25%
EM Local Sovn.~55%
EM USD Corp25%
EM USD Sovn.25%
EM Local Sovn.50%
Represented by JPMorgan Benchmarks: Total $3.1 trillion as of September, 2014
Benchmark split for neutral allocation: 50% GBI-EM GD / 25% EMBI GD / 25% CEMBI BD
Investable Universe Benchmark
79
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioInvestment process
Source: GSAM. For illustrative use only. Global Risk Factor Model (GRM) is a proprietary risk platform. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk. 1 In conjunction with clients for segregated accounts. Targets are subject to change and are current as of the date of this presentation. Targets are objectives and do not provide any assurance as to future results. Please see additional disclosures.
1. Risk budgeting
2. Bottom-up research
3. Asset allocation inputs
4. Portfolio construction and monitoring
Portfolio Manager1 Sovereign Economists/ EM Corporate Analysts
Sam FinkelsteinYacov Arnopolin
Portfolio ManagersSector Specialists
Sam FinkelsteinYacov Arnopolin
Typical tracking error
250-300 bps
Sovereign Credit
(125-175)
Rates
(125-175)
FX
(125-175)
Corporate Credit
(50-100)
Fundamental, bottom-up research based on Three Pillars approach
Focus on sovereign and corporate balance sheets
Form views on individual countries' rates, FX, sovereign and corporate credit markets
Consider high conviction off benchmark positions.
Bottom-up views
Examine high conviction bottom-up views across sectors
Quantitative analysis
Identify factors that drive each sector including; volatility, yields, spreads, PMIs, CPIs, commodities, and metals prices
Evaluate factors in order to determine current fair value for EMD sectors
Macro & Sector Specialist views
Form outlook on economic cycle, prospects for EM economies
Sector Specialists provide assessment on EM rates, FX, sovereign and corporate credit
Portfolio Managers compare sector outlooks with focus on relative value
Portfolio construction
Debate
Implementation
Portfolio monitoring
Risk/return
Liquidity
Position limits
Global Risk Model (GRM)
Deviation vs. benchmark
P&L
Performance attribution
Size to conviction
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
80
Portfolio MonitoringAsset AllocationViews on Individual Sector
ValuationsSovereign Research & Idea Generation
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioInvestment team
Numbers in parentheses ( ) indicate years of investment experience, as of 4-Nov-14.¹ Member of the GSAM Currency team covering EM and G10 currencies.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
Head of Emerging Markets DebtSam Finkelstein (18)
Responsible for overall portfolio risk including beta decisions.
Owi Ruivivar (17)
Location Key
New York
London
Argentina
Singapore
Ricardo Penfold (17)
Diego Sasson (7)
Francesca Fornasari1 (16)
Vladimir Liberzon (13)External Debt
Michael Jalkut (15)Local Rates
David Bowen1 (21)FX
Sam Finkelstein (18)CIO & Head of EMD
Yacov Arnopolin (15)Asset Allocation + Portfolio Monitoring
Yacov Arnopolin /GSAM FI Risk Team
Responsible for sovereign research and making recommendations on debt and currency positioning
Responsible for summarizing views on individual sectors
Responsible for asset allocation decisions. Debate all inputs, integrate macro views and determine portfolio allocation
Responsible for setting and monitoring portfolio risk budgets & guidelines and communicating strategy to investors
Nick Saunders (13)EM Corporates
Prakriti Sofat (9)
81
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
Portfolio positioning (as of October 2014)
Portfolio vs. blended benchmark1
1 Blended benchmark: Local: 50% JPM GBI-EM Global Div, External: 25% JPM EMBI Global Div, EM Corporate: 25% JPM CEMBI Broad Div. The data shown is of a representative account is for informational purposes only and is not indicative of future portfolio characteristics/returns. Local and External duration exposures are beta-adjusted.
FX Management
Local, External, Corporate and US Rates Duration
Neutral Benchmark MV% & Duration (years):
We are overweight EM currencies relative to DM currencies, including biggest OW’s in:
India South Africa Mexico Chile
Portfolio EM FX(MV, %)
Benchmark EM FX(MV, %)
Net Position(MV, %)
53.50% 50.0% 3.50%
Local, 50%
External, 25%
Corporate, 25%
Total duration (years): 5.30
2.38
1.71
1.21
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Duration (yrs)
40%
50%
60%
70%
MV
%
Neutral EM/USD FX Exposure EM FX Exposure
(2.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Net
Du
rati
on
(years
)
Local External Corporate US Rates
82
EMD offers a source of diversificationCorrelation with other asset classes (last 10 years ending Sep 2014)
Source: Bloomberg , JP Morgan, Barclays. Note: Period Oct 2004 – Sep 2014. GSAM Calculations. For illustrative purposes only. Past correlations are not indicative of future correlations, which may vary.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
EM External
Debt
EM Local Debt
EM Corps
Blended EM FI
Global Bonds
Global Sovereign
Debt
US Bonds
US Treasury
US IG Corp
US HY Corp
EU IG (ex-sov)
US Equity
Global Equity
EM Equity
EM Currency
EM External Debt 1.00
EM Local Debt 0.79 1.00
EM Corps 0.90 0.69 1.00
Blended EM FI 0.93 0.95 0.86 1.00
Global Bonds 0.62 0.67 0.54 0.68 1.00
Global Sovereign Debt 0.42 0.49 0.33 0.48 0.96 1.00
US Bonds 0.60 0.34 0.55 0.49 0.69 0.68 1.00
US Treasury 0.22 0.02 0.15 0.12 0.48 0.59 0.85 1.00
US IG Corp 0.79 0.53 0.84 0.71 0.65 0.51 0.81 0.45 1.00
US HY Corp 0.75 0.63 0.77 0.74 0.36 0.14 0.25 -0.23 0.64 1.00
EU IG (ex-sov) 0.62 0.76 0.56 0.74 0.87 0.74 0.38 0.11 0.51 0.47 1.00
US Equity 0.60 0.68 0.60 0.69 0.33 0.12 0.05 -0.29 0.37 0.73 0.53 1.00
Global Equity 0.67 0.78 0.66 0.77 0.43 0.22 0.09 -0.29 0.44 0.77 0.65 0.97 1.00
EM Equity 0.70 0.83 0.66 0.82 0.44 0.23 0.12 -0.24 0.45 0.72 0.62 0.80 0.88 1.00
EM Currency 0.70 0.94 0.63 0.88 0.68 0.50 0.23 -0.08 0.44 0.59 0.84 0.70 0.80 0.83 1.00
Referenced indexJPM EMBI
Global
JPM GBI-EM
Global
JPM CEMBI
BD
25% EMBI
Global, 50%
GBI-EM
Global, 25%
CEMBI BD
BC Global
Aggregate
JPM GBI
Global
BC US
Aggregate
ML US
Treasury:
Current 10 yr
BC US
Corporate
Intermediate
BC US
Corporate
High Yield
ML EMU
Non-
sovereign
Index
(S&P 500)
MSCI World
(developed
equity)
MSCI
Emerging
Market Index
JPM ELMI +
83
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioPortfolio characteristics
** Benchmark : 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index.
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Portfolio holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.1. Non-Rated (NR) includes holdings of securities not rated by any major rating agency. Unrated securities held in the fund may be of higher, lower, or comparable credit quality to securities that have a credit rating from a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO). Therefore, investors should not assume that the unrated securities in the fund increase or decrease the fund’s overall credit quality. 2. Cash may include local currency, foreign currency, short-term investment funds, bank acceptances, commercial paper, margin, repurchase agreements, time deposits, variable-rate demand notes, and/or money market mutual funds. The Cash category may show a negative market value percentage as a result of a) the timing of trade date versus settlement date transactions and/or b) the portfolio’s derivative investments, which are collateralized by the portfolio’s available cash and securities. Such securities are AAA rated by an independent rating agency, have durations between -2 and 1 years, and are limited to the following sectors: governments, agencies, supranationals, corporates, and agency-backed adjustable-rate mortgages. These securities are not reclassified under the Cash category; rather, they remain classified under their proper descriptions (e.g., rating, sector, etc.).3. Derivatives may be used for hedging purposes and/or to express outright investment views. The table’s market value percentage total for derivatives reflects aggregated unrealized gains or losses on positions. * This portfolio/fund has not been rated by an independent rating agency. The credit allocation provided above refers to the Fund’s underlying portfolio securities. GSAM may receive credit quality ratings on the Fund’s underlying securities from the three major rating agencies - S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. GSAM develops the credit quality breakdown by taking the highest rating if more than one agency rates a security. GSAM will use a single rating if that is the only one available. Securities that are not rated by all three agencies are reflected as such in the breakdown. GSAM converts all ratings to the equivalent S&P major rating category when illustrating the Fund’s credit rating breakdown. Ratings and portfolio credit quality may change over time. Unrated securities do not necessarily indicate low quality, and for such securities the investment adviser will evaluate the credit quality.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio vs. Custom Asset-Weighted Blended Benchmark **
Portfolio Benchmark Difference Portfolio Benchmark Difference
Market value (MM) 233.45 1,719,214.28 AAA 0.00% 0.05% -0.05%
Number of Holdings 334 1,794 (1,460) AA 0.85% 3.30% -2.45%
Number of Countries 61 83 (22) A 20.54% 29.74% -9.20%
Average Credit Quality BBB- BBB BBB 48.68% 49.78% -1.10%
Coupon (%) 6.01 6.17 (0.16) BB 13.71% 8.60% 5.11%
Yield To Maturity (%) 6.21 5.67 0.54 B 5.58% 5.40% 0.18%
Yield To Worst (%) 6.19 5.65 0.54 CCC 1.52% 1.62% -0.10%
Current Yield (%) 5.81 5.91 (0.10) CC 0.00% 0.01% -0.01%
C 0.00% 0.01% -0.01%
Option Adjusted Spread Duration (years) 3.95 5.30 (1.36) D 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Convexity 0.34 0.41 (0.07) NR1 7.68% 1.50% 6.19%
Maturity (years) 10.07 8.32 1.75 Cash2 2.48% 0.00% 2.48%
Derivatives3
-1.05% 0.00% -1.05%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Credit Rating Allocation*Top Level Statistics
84
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioSector and currency distribution
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Portfolio holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.Cash may include local currency, foreign currency, short-term investment funds, bank acceptances, commercial paper, margin, repurchase agreements, time deposits, variable-rate demand notes, and/or money market mutual funds. The Cash category may show a negative market value percentage as a result of a) the timing of trade date versus settlement date transactions and/or b) the portfolio’s derivative investments, which are collateralised by the portfolio’s available cash and securities. Such securities are AAA rated by an independent rating agency, have durations between -2 and 1 years, and are limited to the following sectors: governments, agencies, supranationals, corporates, and agency-backed adjustable-rate mortgages. These securities are not reclassified under the Cash category; rather,
they remain classified under their proper descriptions (e.g., rating, sector, etc.). Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
Sector Allocation (Market Value, %)
External Sovereign Debt
17.17%
Local Sovereign Debt
44.99%
External Quasi-Sovereign Debt
8.98%
Local Quasi-Sovereign Debt
0.49%
External Corporate Debt
22.37%
Local Corporate Debt
1.06%
Supranational0.44%
Other2.01%
Cash2.48%
Portfolio Benchmark Difference
United States (USD) 52.50% 50.00% 2.50%
India (INR) 1.25% 0.00% 1.25%
South Africa (ZAR) 6.17% 5.00% 1.17%
Mexico (MXN) 5.72% 5.00% 0.72%
Chile (CLP) 0.77% 0.05% 0.72%
Dominican Republic (DOP) 0.69% 0.00% 0.69%
Malaysia (MYR) 5.68% 5.00% 0.68%
Australia (AUD) 0.55% 0.00% 0.55%
Zambia (ZMW) 0.49% 0.00% 0.49%
Hungary (HUF) 2.89% 2.47% 0.42%
Indonesia (IDR) 4.09% 3.87% 0.22%
Russia (RUB) 3.35% 3.13% 0.22%
Israel (ILS) 0.03% 0.00% 0.03%
Peru (PEN) 0.76% 0.74% 0.03%
Nigeria (NGN) 0.95% 0.93% 0.03%
Romania (RON) 1.23% 1.23% 0.00%
Hong Kong (HKD) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Thailand (THB) 3.43% 3.44% -0.02%
Turkey (TRY) 4.95% 5.00% -0.05%
Colombia (COP) 3.59% 3.93% -0.34%
Philippines (PHP) -0.13% 0.21% -0.34%
South Korea (KRW) -0.39% 0.00% -0.39%
Poland (PLN) 4.59% 5.00% -0.41%
Brazil (BRL) 4.11% 5.00% -0.89%
Japan (JPY) -1.04% 0.00% -1.04%
China (CNY) -1.29% 0.00% -1.29%
Singapore (SGD) -1.74% 0.00% -1.74%
Various (EUR) -3.21% 0.00% -3.21%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Active Currency (MV, %) (in descending order)
85
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Unite
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External Sovereign Debt Local Sovereign Debt External Quasi-Sovereign Debt Local Quasi-Sovereign Debt External Corporate Debt
Local Corporate Debt Currency Forward (FX) Cash Other Benchmark Total
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioCountry distribution
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio vs. Custom Asset-Weighted Blended Benchmark * (Market Value, %)
* Benchmark : 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index.
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures. Portfolio
holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
Overweight Underweight
86
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
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External Sovereign Debt Local Sovereign Debt External Quasi-Sovereign Debt Local Quasi-Sovereign Debt External Corporate Debt
Local Corporate Debt Currency Forward (FX) Cash Other Benchmark Total
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioCountry distribution
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio vs. Custom Asset-Weighted Blended Benchmark *(spread duration, years)
* Benchmark : 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index.
As of 31-Oct-14. Source: GSAM, JPMorgan. Holdings are subject to change and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Other may include US Treasuries and Treasury Futures. Portfolio
holdings may not be representative of current or future investments. The securities discussed do not represent all of the portfolio's holdings and may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings. Future portfolio holdings may not be profitable.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
Overweight Underweight
87
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend PortfolioPerformance as of 30 September 2014
* Benchmark : 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified / 25% JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index. The returns are gross and do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees, which will reduce returns. Our investment advisory fees are described in Part 2 of our Form ADV. See additional disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Performance inception date: 08-May-13. Fund 8436. Please note that the fund operates a swing pricing policy. Investors should be aware that from time to time this may result in the fund performing differently compared to the reference benchmark based solely on the effect of swing pricing rather than price developments of underlying instruments. Please note that as of 24-June-2013 the fund has changed its pricing policy from bid basis to mid price. Investors should note that this may have a positive impact on the fund NAV for that day and on its reported performance for any time period that includes that day.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
YTD 1-Year Since Inception, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio (gross), % 3.85 5.71 -3.22
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio (net), % 2.58 3.99 -4.81
Custom Asset-Weighted Blended Benchmark *, % 3.56 3.67 -3.87
Gross Excess Return, bps 29 205 65
Tracking Error (Gross), bps 120 142
Information Ratio (Gross) 1.70 0.46
GrossExcess
Return (bps)61 29 65
-8.0%
3.8%
-3.2%
-9.0%
2.6%
-4.8%
-8.6%
3.6%
-3.9%
-12%
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
2013 (Partial) 2014 YTD Since Inception, pa
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio (gross), % GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio (net), % Custom Asset-Weighted Blended Benchmark *
88
Net returns reflect the maximum deductible fees; offshore mutual fund fees are negotiable, based on total mandate size and the level of client servicing required.1Benchmark is JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index (1 Day Lag),2Benchmark is JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified (1 Day Lag). 3Benchmark is JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Index.4Inception date: 03-
May-00. 5Since 01-Jan-10, adoption of JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Benchmark. Portfolio previously was benchmark agnostic, with original inception date 29-Jun-07. For pre 2010 track record including benchmark agnostic period please refer to the appendix. 6Inception date: 17-May-11. Performance shown is for Base share classes. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Please note that the fund operates a swing pricing policy. Investors should be aware that from time to time this may result in the fund performing differently compared to the reference benchmark based solely on the effect of swing pricing rather than price developments of underlying instruments. Please note that as of 24-June-2013 the fund has changed its pricing policy from bid basis to mid price. Investors should note that this may have a positive impact on the fund NAV for that day and on its reported performance for any time period that includes that day.
GS EMD portfolio performanceAs of 30 September 2014
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
YTD 3 Year, paSince
Inception4, pa YTD 3 Year, pa
Since Benchmark
Adoption5, pa YTD 3 Year, paSince
Inception6, pa
Portfolio (gross), % 8.76 9.97 12.24 -0.40 3.80 5.18 6.37 10.43 7.83
Portfolio (net), % 7.54 8.33 10.53 -1.77 1.93 4.10 5.18 8.80 6.23
Benchmark, % 8.24 7.89 10.00 -0.01 2.21 4.05 6.24 8.09 5.53
Gross Excess Return, bps 51 208 225 -39 159 113 12 234 230
Tracking Error (gross), bps 141 267 179 192 158 161
Information Ratio (gross) 1.47 0.84 0.89 0.59 1.48 1.43
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio1
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Local Portfolio2
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Portfolio3
8.810.0
-0.4
3.8
6.4
10.4
7.58.3
-1.8
1.9
5.2
8.88.2 7.9
0.0
2.2
6.2
8.1
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2014 YTD 3-Year, pa 2014 YTD 3-Year, pa 2014 YTD 3-Year, pa
Gross (%)
Net (%)
Benchmark (%)
89
RisksGS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
Market risk - the value of assets in the Portfolio is typically dictated by a number of factors, including the confidence levels of the market in which they are traded.
Contingent Convertible (“Coco”) Bond Risk - investment in this particular type of bond may result in material losses to the Portfolio based on certain trigger events. The existence of these trigger events creates a different type of risk from traditional bonds and may more likely result in a partial or total loss of value or alternatively they may be converted into shares of the issuing company which may also have suffered a loss in value. Such trigger events may include a reduction in the issuers' capital ratio, determination by a regulator or the injection of capital by a national authority. Investors should be aware that in the event of a financial crisis that action by regulators or the companies themselves may cause concentrations of these trigger events across the Portfolio.
Operational risk - material losses to the Portfolio may arise as a result of human error, system and/or process failures, inadequate procedures or controls.
Liquidity risk - the Portfolio may not always find another party willing to purchase an asset that the Portfolio wants to sell which could impact the Portfolio's ability to meet redemption requests on demand.
Exchange rate risk - changes in exchange rates may reduce or increase the returns an investor might expect to receive independent of the performance of such assets. If applicable, investment techniques used to attempt to reduce the risk of currency movements (hedging), may not be effective. Hedging also involves additional risks associated with derivatives.
Custodian risk - insolvency, breaches of duty of care or misconduct of a custodian or sub-custodian responsible for the safekeeping of the Portfolio's assets can result in loss to the Portfolio.
Interest rate risk - when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, reflecting the ability of investors to obtain a more attractive rate of interest on their money elsewhere. Bond prices are therefore subject to movements in interest rates which may move for a number of reasons, political as well as economic.
Credit risk - The failure of a counterparty or an issuer of a financial asset held within the Portfolio to meet its payment obligations will have a negative impact on the Portfolio.
Derivatives risk - certain derivatives may result in losses greater than the amount originally invested.
Counterparty risk - a party that the Portfolio transacts with may fail to meet its obligations which could cause losses.
Emerging markets risk - emerging markets are likely to bear higher risk due to lower liquidity and possible lack of adequate financial, legal, social, political and economic structures, protection and stability as well as uncertain tax positions.
For full description of risks please refer to the Prospectus.
GS Growth & Emerging Markets Debt Blend Portfolio
90
General Disclosures
This material is provided at your request for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO. Prospective investors should inform themselves as to any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.
This marketing material has been issued by Goldman Sachs International authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. This material is provided at your request for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. It only contains selected information with regards to the fund and does not constitute an offer to buy shares in the fund. Prior to an investment, prospective investors should carefully read the latest Key Investor Information Document (KIID) as well as the offering documentation, including but not limited to the fund’s prospectus which contains inter alia a comprehensive disclosure of applicable risks. The relevant articles of association, prospectus, supplement, KIID and latest annual/semi-annual report are available free of charge from the fund’s paying and information agent and/or from your financial adviser.
Shares of the fund may not be registered for public distribution in a number of jurisdictions (including but not limited to any Latin American, African or Asian countries). Therefore, the shares of the fund must not be marketed or offered in or to residents of any such jurisdictions unless such marketing or offering is made in compliance with applicable exemptions for the private placement of collective investment schemes and other applicable jurisdictional rules and regulations.
Financial advisers generally suggest a diversified portfolio of investments. The fund described herein does not represent a diversified investment by itself. An investor should only invest if he/she has the necessary financial resources to bear a complete loss of this investment.
This material must not be construed as investment or tax advice. Prospective investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before investing in order to determine whether an investment would be suitable for them.
The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.
This material has been prepared by GSAM and is not a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and GSAM has no obligation to provide any updates or changes.
Index Benchmarks
Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.
The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein. The exclusion of “failed” or closed hedge funds may mean that each index overstates the performance of hedge funds generally.
References to indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only and do not imply that the portfolio will achieve similar results. The index composition may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed. While an adviser seeks to design a portfolio which reflects appropriate risk and return features, portfolio characteristics may deviate from those of the benchmark.
General Disclosures
91
General Disclosures
The currency market affords investors a substantial degree of leverage. This leverage presents the potential for substantial profits but also entails a high degree of risk including the risk that losses may be similarly substantial. Such transactions are considered suitable only for investors who are experienced in transactions of that kind. Currency fluctuations will also affect the value of an investment.
Emerging markets securities may be less liquid and more volatile and are subject to a number of additional risks, including but not limited to currency fluctuations and politicalinstability. The strategy may include the use of derivatives. Derivatives often involve a high degree of financial risk because a relatively small movement in the price of theunderlying security or benchmark may result in a disproportionately large movement in the price of the derivative and are not suitable for all investors. No representation regardingthe suitability of these instruments and strategies for a particular investor is made.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. Views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by GSAM to buy, sell, or hold any security. Views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as investment advice.
Tracking Error (TE) is one possible measurement of the dispersion of a portfolio’s returns from its stated benchmark. More specifically, it is the standard deviation of such excessreturns. TE figures are representations of statistical expectations falling within “normal” distributions of return patterns. Normal statistical distributions of returns suggests thatapproximately two thirds of the time the annual gross returns of the accounts will lie in a range equal to the benchmark return plus or minus the TE if the market behaves in amanner suggested by historical returns. Targeted TE therefore applies statistical probabilities (and the language of uncertainty) and so cannot be predictive of actual results. Inaddition, past tracking error is not indicative of future TE and there can be no assurance that the TE actually reflected in your accounts will be at levels either specified in theinvestment objectives or suggested by our forecasts.
PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH ACCOUNTS OF QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS,THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADINGCOMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A TRADING PROGRAM OR UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF COMMODITYTRADING ADVISOR DISCLOSURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS TRADINGPROGRAM OR THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT.
Although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. We have relied upon andassumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources.
Confidentiality
No part of this material may, without GSAM’s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient.
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146339.OSF.OTU // 146527.OSF.OTU
General Disclosures