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    Investment AnalysisPortfolio Project5/4/2009

    RAHUL RAI

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    2

    Table of contents

    Executive Summary.. 3

    Goals & objective 5

    Weekly portfolio results. 7

    Portfolio beta estimation 21

    Individual securities analysis 23

    o General Electric Corp.. 23

    o McDonalds Corp. 32

    o Vanguard Short term bond index fund. 41

    o Family Dollar Stores Inc 46

    Summary.. 53

    Conclusion.. 60

    Appendix-1.. 61

    Appendix-2.. 64

    Appendix-3. 66

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    3

    Executive Summary

    This project reflects our assigned role as investment analyst or portfolio manager. We invested

    maximum $250,000 in at least one stock, one mutual fund, one corporate bond, one treasury

    security and one stock option for the short period of 14 weeks starting from Jan 30, 2009 to May1, 2009. Being an investment analyst, we successfully managed portfolio by updating it every

    week by selecting securities on basis of our investment objective.

    We chose our investment objective is to preserve the capital. So, goal to be attained according to

    our objective was to preserve our capital in that bear market rather than to lose along with

    market. Thus, we learnt to select securities to invest in for the portfolio on the basis of their beta-

    the risk measure and understood the concept and importance of portfolio beta to fulfill

    investment objective.

    Further, we have demonstrated weekly results of our portfolio with sufficient details. It shows

    how far we reached to attain our investment goals.

    Week-1 Week-14Overall return oninvestment

    Total Portfolio value $ 250,000 $ 242,319 -3.07%

    NYSE Compositevalue 5195.79 5,568.76 7.18%

    $-

    $20,000

    $40,000

    $60,000

    $80,000

    $100,000

    Stocks Mutual

    Funds

    Corportate

    bonds

    T-bills Cash

    Investment in different securities

    Week-1

    Week-14

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    Above chart supports our investment objective. We have successfully managed to preserve our

    capital over extremely volatile course of the market. Lower portfolio beta of approx. 0.29 makes

    portfolio returns very less sensitive with market returns over the same time period.

    Later in this project, we discussed the news and market/ industry information that affected the

    performance of the individual securities in our portfolio. We analyzed stock performance and

    ratings, debt structure, competitive environment, current economic situation, impacts of

    globalization and options & preferred stocks (if any).

    In the conclusion, we summarized everything that we learned in the context of portfolio

    formation and market efficiency, diversification, appropriate choice of securities for investment

    objective, CAPM, option profit diagrams and trading strategies.

    -10.00%

    -8.00%

    -6.00%

    -4.00%

    -2.00%

    0.00%

    2.00%

    4.00%

    6.00%

    8.00%

    10.00%

    12.00%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

    Portfolio return % NYSE Composite index return %

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    5

    Statement of objective

    Introduction

    Investment objective changes for most of the people throughout their life. It is all dependent on

    the risk and return factor and individuals willingness to take risk or in other words people need

    to be compensated with proper return against the value of the risk they take, and this is termed as

    risk aversion. Capital appreciation may be more important for the young investors as they are

    more willing to take risk but later stage when one enters the golden years of their life they

    became more risk aversive and would move with placing more importance on gaining income

    and preserving it. Risk is often defined as portfolio volatility, or the fluctuation in the value of

    your assets over time. Understanding ones tolerance for risk which differs for each investor is

    the key to choose an investment strategy. But the most successful investment should be well

    diversified. Moreover a well diversified portfolio can not only help to reduce unwanted risk but

    also contribute to winning the portfolio.1

    Goals and Objective

    From the very beginning we were well defined to choose our objective of the portfolio. We were

    decided to move with the objective ofpreserving the capital. The reason behind this was the

    time period in which we were given this project. Presently the economy is facing recession, thus

    moving with the objective of preserving the capital was a wise decision. As its hard to beat the

    market or maximize the current cash flow in such economy. Moreover, in order to preserve our

    capital we have invested in such stocks like family dollar and Wal-Mart which opt to move better

    compared to other fields even in such economy. In addition we have preserved ample of cash and

    invested in the Treasury bill which are risk free. The beta of the stocks that we have invested in

    is low. The companies with lower beta tend to do better in such period of recession. We startedwith selecting the stocks of the companies that had relatively low beta like GE, Wal-Mart and

    Family dollar. Thus, we understood the importance of portfolio beta in preserving our objective.

    We have even preserved ample of cash on hand which is a plus sign in preserving our capital.

    1www.investopedia.com

    http://www.investopedia.com/http://www.investopedia.com/http://www.investopedia.com/http://www.investopedia.com/
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    Moreover, investing in the bonds and mutual funds will help us to gain long term returns and

    give a steady cash flow over the time. Mutual funds offer diversification, convenience and high

    liquidity. Our portfolio beta ended up with 0.2926 that is approx of 0.30. The market beta is 1.

    Thus if the return on the market portfolio changes by 1%, then our portfolio return will change

    by 0.2926%. Thus a low beta indicated good sign of investment in the recessionary economy.

    We started our portfolio with a cash of $ 250,000 and by the end of the 14th week we had it about

    $ 242,320 which shows we made a loss of $ 7680. We were able to maintain the rest of our

    capital during this 14 week project. Thus the loss which we incurred in the project was because

    of the beta of the market that moved opposite to our assumption. The beta of our portfolio is

    moving quite consistently but the market beta is too volatile. That is the reason our portfolio

    shows this negligible amount of loss.

    Thus during our project we tried buying and selling few stock, exercised our option and tried

    using our cash on hand in more productive way thereby sticking to our objective of preserving

    the capital. 2

    2 Security and Portfolio Analysis, Douglas and Janis.

    0

    0.20.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    1.2

    BETA

    Security beta

    Market beta

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    Weekly portfolio results

    Week-1

    January 30, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ TickerTrading

    place Quantity Price $ Total Value $

    Stocks

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ NYSE 300 57.69 17,307

    Wal-Mart WMT NYSE 300 47.12 14,136

    Mc Donald's MCD NYSE 300 58.02 17,406

    Family Dollar Stores FDO NYSE 250 27.77 6,943

    JP Morgan & Chase Co. JPM NYSE 400 25.51 10,204

    Mutual Funds

    Legg Mason Opportunity Primary LMOPX NYSE 1,000 4.82 4,820

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX NYSE 500 18.83 9,415

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 NYSE 15 978.05 14,671

    Pfizer 717081AR4 NYSE 15 1,085.47 16,282

    T- Bills

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,996.18 19,992

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,982.34 19,965

    Options

    Rio Tinto PLC RJTDC.X NYSE 200

    Expire- 17April, 2009

    Strike- 115.00

    CALL

    JP Morgan Chase JSAOS.X NYSE 400

    Expire- 20March, 2009

    Strike- 22.50

    PUT

    Total $ 151,140

    Cash in hands $ 98,860

    Total Portfolio value $ 250,000

    NYSE Composite value 5,195.79

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    Week 1-2

    January 30- February 6, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price $ Total Value $ Price $2 Total Value $3

    Stocks

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 57.69 17,307 58.51 17,553

    Wal-Mart WMT 300 47.12 14,136 49.63 14,889

    Mc Donald's MCD 300 58.02 17,406 58.46 17,538

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 27.77 6,943 26.92 6,730

    JP Morgan & Chase Co. JPM 400 25.51 10,204 27.63 11,052

    Mutual Funds

    Legg Mason OpportunityPrimary LMOPX 1,000 4.82 4,820 5.09 5,090

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 18.83 9,415 20.06 10,030

    Corporate BondsGeneral Electric 36962G3H5 15 978.05 14,671 961.63 14,425

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1,085.47 16,282 1,062.14 15,932

    T- Bills

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,996.183 19,992 9,993.70 19,987

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,982.34 19,965 9,980.93 19,962

    Options

    Rio Tinto PLC RJTDC.X 200

    Expire- 17 April,2009

    Strike- 115.00

    CALLJP Morgan Chase JSAOS.X 400

    Expire- 20 March,2009

    Strike- 22.50

    PUT Jan 30, 2009 Feb 6, 2009

    Total $ 151,140 $ 153,188

    Cash in hands $ 98,860 $ 98,8984

    Total portfolio value $ 250,000 $ 252,086

    1- week portfolio return 0.8344%

    NYSE Composite value 5,195.79 5,475.28

    1- week NYSE Composite return 5.3792%

    3 T-bill price calculation is shown in Appendix-24 For cash in portfolio, BCLR (Brokers cash loan rate) is used to find its FV. Calculation is shown in Appendix-2

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    Week 2-3

    February 6- February 13, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price $ Total Value $ Price $2 Total Value $3

    Stocks

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 58.51 17,553 57.1 17,130Wal-Mart WMT 300 49.63 14,889 46.53 13,959

    Mc Donald's MCD 300 58.46 17,538 56.81 17,043

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 26.92 6,730 26.61 6,653

    JP Morgan & Chase Co. JPM 400 27.63 11,052 24.69 9,876

    Mutual Funds

    Legg Mason OpportunityPrimary LMOPX 1,000 5.09 5,090 4.79 4,790

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 20.06 10,030 19.53 9,765

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 961.63 14,425 974.74 14,621

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1,062.14 15,932 1,103.10 16,547

    T- Bills

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,993.70 19,987 9,993.50 19,987

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,980.93 19,962 9,977.80 19,956

    Options

    Rio Tinto PLC RJTDC.X 200 12.5 2,500

    Expire- 17 April,2009

    Strike- 115.00

    CALL

    JP Morgan Chase JSAOS.X 400 1.73 692

    Expire- 20 March,2009

    Strike- 22.50

    PUT Feb 6, 2009 Feb 13, 2009

    Total $ 153,188 $ 153,518

    Cash in hands $ 98,898 $ 95,7435

    Total portfolio value $ 252,086 $ 249,261

    1- week portfolio return -1.1208%

    NYSE Composite value 5,475.28 5,206.76

    1- week NYSE Composite return -4.9042%

    5Adjusted by adding options RJTDC.X & JSAOS.X to portfolio

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    Week 3-4

    February 13- February 20, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price $ Total Value $ Price Total Value $2

    Stocks

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 57.1 17,130 54.65 16,395

    Wal-Mart WMT 300 46.53 13,959 50.02 15,006

    Mc Donald's MCD 300 56.81 17,043 54.57 16,371

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 26.61 6,653 27.02 6,755

    JP Morgan & Chase Co. JPM 400 24.69 9,876 19.9 7,960

    Mutual Funds

    Legg Mason OpportunityPrimary LMOPX 1,000 4.79 4,790 3.99 3,990

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 19.53 9,765 18.54 9,270-

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 974.74 14,621 969.846 14,548

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1,103.10 16,547 1062.62 15,939

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,993.50 19,987 9,994.67 19,989

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,977.80 19,956 9,978.18 19,956

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 992.65 14,890

    Options

    Rio Tinto PLC RJTDC.X 200 12.5 2,500 9.6 1,920

    Expire- 17 April,2009

    Strike- 115.00

    CALLJP Morgan Chase JSAOS.X 400 1.73 692 5.4 2,160

    Expire- 20 March,2009

    Strike- 22.50

    PUT Feb 13, 2009 Feb 20, 2009

    Total $ 153,518 $ 165,149

    Cash in hands $ 95,743$

    80,8847

    Total Portfolio value $ 249,261 $ 246,033

    1- week portfolio return -1.2947%

    NYSE Composite value 5,206.76 4,804.51

    1- Week NYSE composite return -7.7255%

    6 Bond price calculation shown in Appendix-27 Adjusted by buying 30 year treasury bonds

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    Week 4-5

    February 20- February 27, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price $ Total Value $ Price Total Value $2

    Stocks

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 54.65 16,395 50 15,000

    Wal-Mart WMT 300 50.02 15,006 49.24 14,772

    Mc Donald's MCD 300 54.57 16,371 52.25 15,675

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 27.02 6,755 27.44 6,860

    JP Morgan & Chase Co. JPM 400 19.9 7,960 22.85 9,140

    Mutual Funds

    Legg Mason OpportunityPrimary LMOPX 1,000 3.99 3,990 3.9 3,900

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 18.54 9,270 17.75 8,875-

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 969.84 14,548 887.9 13,319

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1062.62 15,939 1,065.47 15,982

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,994.67 19,989 9,997.50 19,995

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,978.18 19,956 9,979 19,958

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 992.65 14,890 $ 992.70 14,891

    Options

    Rio Tinto PLC RJTDC.X 200 9.6 1,920 7.3 1,460

    Expire- 17 April,2009

    Strike- 115.00

    CALL

    JP Morgan Chase JSAOS.X 400 5.4 2,160 1.98 792

    Expire- 20 March,2009

    Strike- 22.50

    PUT Feb 20, 2009 Feb 27, 2009

    Total $ 165,149 $ 160,618

    Cash in hands $ 80,884 $ 80,915

    Total Portfolio value $ 246,033 $ 241,533

    1- week portfolio return -1.8291%

    NYSE Composite value 4,804.51 4,617.03

    1- Week NYSE composite return -3.9022%

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    Week 5-6

    February 27- March 6, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price $ Total Value Price Total Value2

    Stocks

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 50 15,000 47.97 14,391

    Wal-Mart WMT 300 49.24 14,772 48.91 14,673

    Mc Donald's MCD 300 52.25 15,675 52.12 15,636

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 27.44 6,860 30.36 7,590

    JP Morgan & Chase Co. JPM 400 22.85 9,140 15.93 6,372

    Mutual Funds

    Legg Mason OpportunityPrimary LMOPX 1,000 3.9 3,900 3.37 3,370

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 17.75 8,875 16.99 8,495

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 887.9 13,319 797.54 11,963

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1,065.47 15,982 1,048.31 15,725

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,997.50 19,995 9,995.64 19,991

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,979 19,958 9,982.03 19,964

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 $ 992.70 14,891 994.6 14,919

    Options

    Rio Tinto PLC RJTDC.X 200 7.3 1,460 6.4 1,280

    Expire- 17 April,2009

    Strike- 115.00

    CALL

    JP Morgan Chase JSAOS.X 400 1.98 792 8.25 3,300

    Expire- 20 March,2009

    Strike- 22.50

    PUT Feb 27, 2009 March 6, 2009

    Total $ 160,618 $ 157,669

    Cash in hands $ 80,915 $ 80,946

    Total portfolio value $ 241,533 $ 238,615

    1- week portfolio return -1.2080%

    NYSE Composite value 4,617.03 4,284.49

    1- week NYSE composite return -7.2025%

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    Week 6-7

    March 6- March 13, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price $ Total Value Price Total Value2

    StocksMarch 6,2009

    March13, 2009

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 47.97 14,391 50.64 15,192

    Wal-Mart WMT 300 48.91 14,673 49.19 14,757

    Mc Donald's MCD 300 52.12 15,636 52.38 15,714

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 30.36 7,590 31.52 7,880

    JP Morgan & Chase Co. JPM 400 15.93 6,372

    Genentech Inc. DNA 125 - 94.2 11,775

    General Mills Inc. GIS 200 - 52.6 10,520

    Mutual Funds - -Legg Mason OpportunityPrimary LMOPX 1,000 3.37 3,370

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 16.99 8,495 18.34 9,170Vanguard Short term bondindex VBISX 1,000 - 10.18 10,180

    Corporate Bonds - -

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 797.54 11,963 898.125 13,472

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1,048.31 15,725 1,037.68 15,565

    - -

    T- Bills/ Bonds - -

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,995.64 19,991 9,997.17 19,994

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,982.03 19,964 9,983.78 19,968

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 994.6 14,919 969.69 14,545

    -

    Options - -

    Rio Tinto PLC RJTDC.X 200 6.4 1,280 -Expire- 17 April,2009 - -

    Strike- 115.00 - -CALL - -

    JP Morgan Chase JSAOS.X 400 8.25 3,300 -

    Expire- 20 March,2009 -

    Strike- 22.50 -

    PUT -McDonald's

    MCDOJ.X Expire-March 20, 2009Strike- 50.00BOUGHT PUT

    300 0.25 75

    Total $ 157,669 $ 178,807

    Cash in hands $ 80,946 $ 63,017 8

    Total Portfolio value $ 238,615 $ 241,824

    1- week portfolio return 1.3450%

    NYSE Composite Return 4,284.49 4,721

    1- week NYSE Composite return 10.1881%

    8 Adjusted by proceeds from sale of 400 shares of JPM @ $23.75 (Subtracting call premium of $400), 200 call options of RTP @ $6.8, 1000mutual fund shares of LMOPX @ $4.11 & further investing in GIS, DNA, VBISX & MCDOJ.X

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    Week 7-8

    March 13- March 20, 2009

    InvestmentsCUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price Total Value Price2 Total Value3

    Stocks March 13 March 20

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 50.64 15,192 51.67 15,501

    Wal-Mart WMT 300 49.19 14,757 49.59 14,877

    Mc Donald's MCD 300 52.38 15,714 53.2 15,960

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 31.52 7,880 30.86 7,715

    Genentech Inc. DNA 125 94.2 11,775 93.72 11,715

    General Mills Inc. GIS 200 52.6 10,520 47.22 9,444

    Mutual Funds -

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 18.34 9,170 18.57 9,285

    Vanguard Short term bond index VBISX 1000 10.18 10,180 10.24 10,240

    Corporate Bonds -

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 898.125 13,472 916.082 13,741

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1,037.68 15,565 1,054.11 15,812

    T- Bills/ Bonds -

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,997.17 19,994 9,997.57 19,995

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,983.78 19,968 9,985 19,970

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 969.69 14,545 975.62 14,634

    -

    Options --

    McDonald's MCDOJ.X Expire-March 20, 2009Strike- 50.00BOUGHT PUT

    300 0.25 75 0.0515

    Total 178,807 178,904

    Cash in hands 63,017 63,041

    Total Portfolio value 241,824 241,946

    1- week portfolio return 0.0501%

    NYSE Composite value 4,721 4,832.13

    1- week NYSE composite return 2.3540%

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    Week 8-9

    March 20- March 27, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price Total Value Price2 Total Value3

    Stocks March 20 March 27Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 51.67 15,501 52.83 15,849

    Wal-Mart WMT 300 49.59 14,877 52.57 15,771

    Mc Donald's MCD 300 53.2 15,960 55.01 16,503

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 30.86 7,715 33.63 8,408- -

    Genentech Inc. DNA 125 93.72 11,715 -

    General Mills Inc. GIS 200 47.22 9,444 50.85 10,170

    Mutual Funds-

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 18.57 9,285 19.9 9,950

    Vanguard Short term bondindex VBISX 1000 10.24 10,240 10.23 10,230

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 916.082 13,741 909.014 13,635

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1,054.11 15,812 1053.89 15,808

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9,997.57 19,995 9998.62 19,997

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9,985 19,970 9986.665 19,973

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 975.62 14,634 982.91 14,744

    Options

    - -McDonald's MCDOJ.X Expire-May 15, 2009 Strike-50.00 BOUGHTPUT

    300 0.05 15 0.4 120

    Total $ 178,904 $ 171,158

    Cash in hands $ 63,041 $ 74,780 9

    Total Market value of portfolio $ 241,945 $ 245,939

    1 week portfolio return 1.6505%

    NYSE Composite value 4,832.13 5,096.64

    1 week NYSE composite return 5.4740%

    9Adjusted by proceeds of 125 shares of DNA @ $ 93.72

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    Week 9-10

    March 27- April 3, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price Total Value Price2 Total Value3

    Stocks March 27 April 3

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 52.83 $ 15,849 52.15 $ 15,645

    Wal-Mart WMT 500 52.57 $ 15,771 53.8 $ 26,900

    Mc Donald's MCD 500 55.01 $ 16,503 56.64 $ 28,320

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 33.63 $ 8,408 31.9 $ 7,975

    General Mills Inc. GIS 200 50.85 $ 10,170 50.86 $ 10,172

    Mutual Funds

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 19.9 $ 9,950 19.99 $ 9,995

    Vanguard Short term bondindex VBISX 1000 10.23 $ 10,230 10.24 $ 10,240

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 909.014 $ 13,635 879.04 $ 13,186

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1053.89 $ 15,808 1046.8 $ 15,702

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9998.62 $ 19,997 9998.38 $ 19,997

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9986.665 $ 19,973 9986.41 $ 19,973

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 982.91 $ 14,744 968.65 $ 14,530

    OptionsMcDonald's MCDOJ.X

    Expire- May15, 2009 Strike-50.00BOUGHT PUT

    500 0.4 $ 120 0.15 $ 75

    Total $ 171,158 $ 192,709

    Cash in hands $ 74,780$

    52,72110

    Total market value ofportfolio $ 245,938 $ 245,430

    1 week portfolio return -0.2068%

    NYSE Composite value 5096.64 5318.75

    NYSE Composite return 1 week 4.3580%

    10Adjusted by buying 200 additional shares of each WMT & MCD

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    Week 10-11

    April 3- April 10, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price Total Value Price2 Total Value3

    Stocks April 3

    April 10

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 52.15 15,645 51.41 15,423

    Wal-Mart WMT 500 53.8 26,900 50.66 25,330

    Mc Donald's MCD 500 56.64 28,320 56.67 28,335

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 31.9 7,975 34.33 8,583

    General Mills Inc. GIS 200 50.86 10,172 50.84 10,168

    Mutual Funds

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 19.99 9,995 20.39 10,195

    Vanguard Short term bond index VBISX 1000 10.24 10,240 10.23 10,230

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 879.04 13,186 912.08 13,681

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1046.8 15,702 1071.0531 16,066

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9998.38 19,997 9998.93 19,998

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9986.41 19,973 9987.84 19,976

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 968.65 14,530 960.59 14,409

    OptionsMcDonald's MCDOJ.X

    Expire- May 15,2009 Strike- 50.00BOUGHT PUT

    500 0.15 75 0.03 15

    Total $ 192,709 $ 192,408

    Cash in hands $ 52,721 $ 52,741

    Total Market value of portfolio $ 245,430 $ 245,149

    1 week portfolio return -0.1144%

    NYSE Composite value 5,319 5,376.44

    NYSE Composite return 1 week 1.0847%

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    Week 11-12

    April 10- April 17, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price Total Value Price2 Total Value3

    Stocks April 10

    April 17

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 51.41 15,423 53.05 15,915

    Wal-Mart WMT 500 50.66 25,330 50.2 25,100

    Mc Donald's MCD 500 56.67 28,335 56.09 28,045

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 34.33 8,583 32.82 8,205

    General Mills Inc. GIS 200 50.84 10,168 49.89 9,978

    Mutual Funds

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 20.39 10,195 20.6 10,300

    Vanguard Short term bondindex VBISX 1000

    10.23 10,230 10.28 10,280

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15912.08 13,681 904.62 13,569

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1071.0531 16,066 1065.79 15,987

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9998.93 19,998 9999.45 19,999

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9987.84 19,976 9990.0542 19,980

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 960.59 14,409 951.77 14,277

    OptionsMcDonald's MCDOJ.X

    Expire- May 15,2009 Strike- 50.00BOUGHT PUT

    500 0.03 15 0.05 25

    Total Value 192,408 191,660

    Cash in hands 52,741 52,761

    Total Portfolio value 245,149 244,421

    1 week portfolio return -0.2969%

    NYSE Composite Value 5,376.44 5,480.60

    NYSE Composite 1 week return 1.9373%

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    Week 12-13

    April 17- April 24, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price Total Value Price2 Total Value3

    Stocks April 17 April 24

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 30053.05

    15,915 50.92 15,276

    Wal-Mart WMT 50050.2

    25,100 47.87 23,935

    Mc Donald's MCD 50056.09

    28,045 54.31 27,155

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 25032.82

    8,205 32.79 8,198

    General Mills Inc. GIS 20049.89

    9,978 48.73 9,746

    Mutual Funds

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 50020.6

    10,300 20.83 10,415

    Vanguard Short term bond index VBISX 1000

    10.28

    10,280 10.27 10,270

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15904.62

    13,569 905.3 13,580

    Pfizer 717081AR4 151065.79

    15,987 1066.42 15,996

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 29999.45

    19,999 9999.79 20,000

    26 weeks 912795Q95 29990.0542

    19,980 9991.425 19,983

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15951.77

    14,277 939.551 14,093

    OptionsMcDonald's MCDOJ.X Expire-

    May 15, 2009Strike- 50.00BOUGHT PUT

    500 0.05 25 0.3150

    Total Value $ 191,660$

    188,796

    Cash in hands $ 52,761$

    52,781

    Total Portfolio value $ 244,421$

    241,577

    1 week portfolio return -1.1633%

    NYSE composite value 5,480.60 5,468.41

    1 week NYSE composite return -0.2224%

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    Week 13-14

    April 24- May 1, 2009

    Investments CUSIP/ Ticker Quantity Price Total Value Price2 Total Value3

    Stocks April 24 May 1Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 50.92 15,276 52.59 15,777

    Wal-Mart WMT 500 47.87 23,935 50.05 25,025

    Mc Donald's MCD 500 54.31 27,155 52.4 26,200

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 32.79 8,198 32.14 8,035

    General Mills Inc. GIS 200 48.73 9,746 50.48 10,096

    Mutual Funds

    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock PRGFX 500 20.83 10,415 21.11 10,555

    Vanguard Short term bondindex VBISX 1000 10.27 10,270 10.28 10,280

    Corporate Bonds

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 905.3 13,580 903.732 13,556

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 1066.42 15,996 1079.57 16,194

    T- Bills/ Bonds

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 9999.79 20,000 10,000 20,000

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 9991.425 19,983 9992.366 19,985

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 939.551 14,093 907.727 13,616

    OptionsMcDonald's MCDOJ.X Expire-

    May 15, 2009

    Strike- 50.00BOUGHT PUT

    500 0.3 150 0.4 200

    Total Value 188,796 189,518

    Cash in hands 52,781 52,801

    Total portfolio value 241,577 242,319

    1- week portfolio return 0.3074%

    NYSE Composite Value 5,480.60 5,568.76

    1- week NYSE composite return 1.6086%

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    Portfolio Beta estimation

    As of May 1, 2009

    InvestmentsCUSIP/Ticker Quantity Total Value Weight Wi Beta Bi Wi*Bi

    Stocks

    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 300 15,777 0.065108 0.59 0.038413792

    Wal-Mart WMT 500 25,025 0.103273 0.23 0.023752682

    Mc Donald's MCD 500 26,200 0.108121 0.65 0.07027897

    Family Dollar Stores FDO 250 8,035 0.033159 0.23 0.007626486

    General Mills Inc. GIS 200 10,096 0.041664 0.27 0.011249257

    Mutual Funds

    T. Rowe Price GrowthStock PRGFX 500 10,555 0.043558 1.01 0.043993686

    Vanguard Short termbond index VBISX 1000 10,280 0.042423 0.53 0.022484318

    Corporate Bonds11

    General Electric 36962G3H5 15 13,556 0.055943 1.19 0.066571641

    Pfizer 717081AR4 15 16,194 0.066829 0.118 0.00788582

    T- Bills/ Bonds12

    13 weeks 912795L66 2 20,000 0.082535 0 0

    26 weeks 912795Q95 2 19,985 0.082474 0 0

    30 years T- bond 912810QA9 15 13,616 0.056190 0 0

    Options13

    McDonald's MCDOJ.XExpire- May15, 2009Strike- 50.00BOUGHTPUT

    500 200 0.000825 0.4225 0.000348712

    Cash 52,801 0.217898 0 0

    Total Portfolio value$

    242,320 1.000000

    Portfolio Beta= Wi * Bi= 0.2926

    11 Bonds beta BD= BL-BU; where BL was found to be from Yahoo! Finance and BUcan be calculated using Hamadas equationBL= BU [ 1+ (1-Tax rate) * LTD/ Equity ]

    12 Beta of Government securities and cash are almost zero as they are assumed to be risk free13 We have assumed beta of a put option as 0.65* respective stocks beta

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    In above chart, we calculated theoretical return on our portfolio according to its overall beta.

    That goes well together with real portfolio return that we got. Differences are because of higher

    volatility of market and securities changes during the period that we did not consider counting

    real return on portfolio.

    So, theoretical portfolio return line shows the expected return on portfolio which we found

    greater than that real return on portfolio over the 14- week period. This phenomenon is further

    explained by CAPM analysis which we will discuss later.

    -10.00%

    -8.00%

    -6.00%

    -4.00%

    -2.00%

    0.00%

    2.00%4.00%

    6.00%

    8.00%

    10.00%

    12.00%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

    Theoratical portfolio return acc. To beta NYSE Composite index return

    Real portfolio return

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    Individual securities analysis

    General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)

    General Electric Company (GE) operates as a technology, media, and financial services company

    worldwide. Its Energy Infrastructure segment produces gas, steam, and aero derivative turbines;

    generators; and combined cycle systems, as well as provides water treatment services and

    equipment. This segment also sells surface and subsea drilling and production systems, floating

    production platform equipment, compressors, turbines, turbo expanders, and high pressure

    reactors to national, international, and independent oil and gas companies; and offers equipment

    overhauls and upgrades, pipeline inspection and integrity services, remote diagnostic and

    monitoring, and contractual service agreements. The companys Technology Infrastructure

    segment manufactures jet engines, aerospace systems and equipment, and its replacement parts,

    as well as provides repair and maintenance services for commercial aircraft; military aircraft,

    including fighters, bombers, tankers, and helicopters; marine applications; and executive and

    regional aircraft.

    This segment also produces healthcare products, including diagnostic imaging systems; offers

    transportation products and maintenance services; provides enterprise solutions using sensors for

    temperature, pressure, moisture, gas and flow rate, as well as non-destructive testing inspection

    equipment. GEs NBC Universal segment engages in the production and distribution of films and

    television programs; operation of television stations and cable/satellite television networks, as

    well as theme parks. The companys Capital Finance segment offers loans, leases, and other

    financial services to customers, including manufacturers, distributors, and end-users of

    $-

    $20,000

    $40,000

    $60,000

    $80,000

    Energy

    Infrastructure

    Technology

    Infrastructure

    NBC Universal Capital

    Finance

    Consumer &

    Industrial

    GE Segments' revenues 2008 in $ millions

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    equipment and major capital assets. Its Consumer & Industrial segment produces various house

    hold appliances, lighting products, and electrical equipment and control products, as well as

    provides related services. The company was founded in 1892 and based in Fairfield, Connecticut.

    Beta (Risk)

    Risks to our recommendation and target price include the possibility of a deeper than expected

    Global recession, as well as greater than expected credit losses in Capital Finance.

    Bl LTD Equity Tax Rate

    1.46 $330,067,000,000 $104,665,000,000 5.5%

    Hamadas equation:Bl= Bu { 1+ (1-Tax rate) LTD/Equity }

    So, Bu was found to be 0.367

    Higher beta of 1.46 supports the above technical chart analysis of stock price of GE compared to

    DJI. GE has high risks compared to market. So, when market goes down like in currentrecessionary situation, GE stock price sinks more than a market does.

    Firms business risk contains no leverage. It is the risk related to its operations. While levered

    beta contains both financial risks and business risks. Companys lower equity portion as

    compared to that of long term debt, shows its higher financial risk (Bl-Bu= 1.093)

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    Industry Analysis & impact of current economy

    The volume of the electricity generated in US is expected to increase at about 1% annually in the

    five years through 2009. The industry will experience a medium level of volatility over this

    period with the annual real change in the revenue ranging from a decrease of 10.30% to increase

    of 4.9%.

    The impact of the current recession on this industry will be negative. The lower level of the

    commercial property development, rising level of unemployment, falling company profits, have

    in particular had a hard hit on the company. Lower level of capital expenditure will be reduced in

    the light of the recession which will drag down industry growth further. A slower global

    economy will also impact the export markets. Sales in the electrical equipment will be impacted

    by a downtown in the residential building activity and industrial production.

    The top five players account for the 33% of the industry revenue. Out of which GE contribution

    is 7.1%. The main factors affecting the industry performance is the downstream demand,

    industrial production index and the real GDP growth. 14

    Company analysis & influence from financial & economic events

    G.E.'s industrial business is buffered from the cycles of big-ticket equipment orders by its

    services business, which involves maintaining, repairing and upgrading industrial products. In

    fact, services account for 30 percent of the revenue of G.E.'s industrial businesses, and 70

    percent of the profits. Profits at G.E.'s media and entertainment unit, NBC Universal, fell 45

    percent, pulled down by weak advertising for broadcast television and online and declining

    attendance at its theme parks.

    Profit margins fell in 2005, despite slow growth in labor costs, due to increases in material costs,

    which were not fully passed on to customers in the form of higher unit selling prices due in part

    14http://www.geconsumerproducts.com/pressroom/press_releases/company/company/ge_estaraward

    _2009.htm

    2 IBIS World, Industry outlook, SIC Code 33531www.ge.com

    http://www.geconsumerproducts.com/pressroom/press_releases/company/company/ge_estaraward_2009.htmhttp://www.geconsumerproducts.com/pressroom/press_releases/company/company/ge_estaraward_2009.htmhttp://www.geconsumerproducts.com/pressroom/press_releases/company/company/ge_estaraward_2009.htmhttp://www.geconsumerproducts.com/pressroom/press_releases/company/company/ge_estaraward_2009.htmhttp://www.geconsumerproducts.com/pressroom/press_releases/company/company/ge_estaraward_2009.htmhttp://www.geconsumerproducts.com/pressroom/press_releases/company/company/ge_estaraward_2009.htm
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    to competitive pressures from imports. Industry profit margins are expected to improve in 2006

    through 2007 due to: continued real growth in revenue; a greater concentration on higher margin

    products; improved pricing; industry consolidation; and the impact of company productivity and

    cost initiatives (such as from previous reductions in employee numbers, which increased revenue

    per employee). Profit margins will come under some pressure in 2008 due to higher raw material

    prices and a slowdown in sales in the last quarter. Margins in 2009 will be impacted by a

    decrease in sales and in capacity utilization. The value of total US imports of electrical

    equipment is expected to increase at an average annualized real rate of 5.1% in the five years

    through 2009. China increased its share of imports of industry products into the US, from 9.9%

    in 2004 to 14.6% in 2008.

    Product and service differentiation & diversification through globalization

    GE offers one of the most comprehensive portfolios of product for the energy industry. It offers

    technology for oil and gas, fossil, nuclear, solar and wind applications. It works after providing

    the most innovative ways to produce efficient and reliable power. Thus it helps the world thats

    demands a reliable supply of clean and dependable power. It moves from providing a simple

    maintenance service to sophisticated technology upgrades.

    Source: GE Annual report 2008 1

    The U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have awarded

    GE Consumer & Industrial the ENERGY STAR Sustained Excellence award for the fourth

    straight year. Also this marks the sixth year GE has been acknowledged as an ENERGY STAR

    47%

    24%

    13%

    5%8%

    3%

    2008 Revenues in $ billions

    US Europe Pacific Basin Middle East & Africa Americas Other Global

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    Partner of the Year. These awards recognize GE's tremendous efforts to create high-performance

    household appliance and lighting products that help reduce energy spending and protect the

    environment.

    GE has introduced a new product that is first incandescent-shaped energy smart CFL bulb. Itaccepts this product to be accepted by the people that want the energy savings and long life

    performance. GE Consumer and Industrial span the globe as an industry leader in major

    appliances, lighting and integrated industrial equipment, system and services. Thus GE initiatives

    to aggressively bring the market new technologies that help consumers meet pressing

    environment challenges, to deliver comfort, convenience and electrical protection and control.

    Thus being consumer oriented helps it to gain more profitability and thereby bringing it market

    share to boost.

    GE Global Exchange Services and GE Systems Services, to enter the burgeoning worldwide

    market for business-to-business e-commerce. Through the effort, GE plans to compete with the

    upstart leaders in the market, Commerce One and Ariba. GE Global Exchange Services will

    focus on four markets: Internet data exchange, enterprise application integration software,

    procurement software and services, and trading partner exchanges. GE Systems Services will

    provide global technology support to GE Global Exchange Services activities.

    Competitive analysis

    Siemens is Europe's largest electronics and electrical engineering company with worldwide

    operations in the industrial automation and control, information and communications, lighting,

    medical, power transmission, and transportation sectors. In the year ended September 30, 2007,

    Siemens generated net sales of approximately US$105.9 billion. The company's US subsidiaries

    accounted for 21.7% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2007, and the US accounted for 35.2% of

    consolidated non-current assets. The company has recently focused on expanding operations in

    the US and has reorganized their US operations as Siemens Corporation.

    Citigroup Inc. doing business as Citi, provides a range of financial products and services to

    consumers and corporate customers. It mainly does its business through four segments: Global

    Cards, Consumer Banking, Institutional Clients Group and Global Wealth Management. Thus it

    involves itself in providing a wide range of services including the various credit cards, consumer

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    financing, loans, securities and banking activities to advisory financial planning and wealth

    management.

    Source: IBIS World , FDU online library 1

    Citi announced today it is providing direct custody and clearing services (DCC) to clients in the

    Ukraine. This is the eighth new market Citi has opened in two years taking its proprietary

    networkthe largest in the worldto 52 markets. Citi currently serves 27 markets in Europe,

    the Middle East and Africa. This will help it to give better services to its members and get hold

    to profitable profits and maintain the high quality of the services. This helps the capital market

    by providing the services required by the broker dealers and global custodian to support the

    trading and the investment activities around the world. Global Transaction Services offers

    integrated cash management, trade, and securities and fund services to multinational

    corporations, financial institutions and public sector organizations around the world. With a

    network spanning over 100 countries, Citi's Global Transaction Services supports over 65,000

    clients. As of 4th quarter 2007, it held on average $245 billion in liability balances and $13.1

    trillion in assets under custody. 15

    3http://www.citigroup.com/transactionservices/home/about_us/press_room/current/2008_0416.jsp

    9%

    7%

    6%

    6%

    5%

    4%3%

    2%

    58%

    Electric equipment manufacturers in the US; Market share 2008

    Rockwell Automation, Inc.

    General Electric Company

    Siemens AG ADS

    ABB, Limited ADR

    Eaton Corporation

    Baldor Electric Company

    Schneider Electric SA

    Cooper Industries Limited

    http://www.citigroup.com/transactionservices/home/about_us/press_room/current/2008_0416.jsphttp://www.citigroup.com/transactionservices/home/about_us/press_room/current/2008_0416.jsphttp://www.citigroup.com/transactionservices/home/about_us/press_room/current/2008_0416.jsphttp://www.citigroup.com/transactionservices/home/about_us/press_room/current/2008_0416.jsp
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    Options

    Yes. There are options available on stock of GE.

    Maximum volume of call options were found to be in the money and put options were found to

    be out of the money. This volume trading of options indicates that investors expect the stock

    price of GE to go down from its current price of $12.69 as of May 1, 2009. So, we can say that

    current GE stock may be overpriced.

    Capital structure and Bond rating

    As of December 2008,

    Long term debt Short term debt Total Equity

    330,067,000,000 248,610,000,000 104,665,000,000

    Total Debt= 330,067,000,000 + 248,610,000,000 =$ 578,677,000,000

    Debt in Capital Structure= Total debt/ Total debt + Total equity= 84.68% with 57% in long term

    debt & 43% short term debt.

    Rating Agency Bond ratingStandard & Poors AA+

    Fitch AA

    Bond yield Vs. Treasury yield curve

    We have taken following bond into consideration:

    Price 105.00

    Coupon rate 5%

    Maturity date Feb 1, 2013

    First coupon date Aug 1, 2003

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    Stock ratings

    The Street HOLD

    ValuEngine Positive Buy

    Price Target research D-F: Negative- lowest; Strongly underperform

    in future

    Standard & Poors HOLD with $ 14.00 12-month target price

    Thus, we conclude that stock price of GE is likely to go up if you hold it for considerably long

    term.

    Upper Management Team

    Jeffrey Immelt Chairman & CEO

    Jeff Gaspin President

    Peter Ehrenheim President

    Keith Sherin SR VP & CFO

    Michael Neal Vice Chairman

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    McDonalds Corp. (NYSE: MCD)

    We can conclude from above chart that MCD has almost doubled the stock returns over the last 5

    years. Companys cost effective fast food for consumers, makes it give stable returns over lastyear of bear market or recession. McDonalds Corporation, together with its subsidiaries,

    franchises and operates McDonalds restaurants in the food service industry worldwide. Its

    restaurants offer various food items, soft drinks, and coffee and other beverages. As of December

    31, 2008, the company operated 31,967 restaurants in 118 countries, of which 25,465 were

    operated by franchisees; and 6,502 were operated by the company. McDonalds Corporation was

    founded in 1948 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

    Beta (Risk)

    Bl LTD Equity Tax rate

    0.77 10,186,000,000 13,382,000,000 30%

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    Hamadas equation:Bl= Bu { 1+ (1-Tax rate) LTD/Equity }

    Thus, Bu was found to be 0.5023

    These betas near to market beta of 1, indicates the same volatility as the market has had since last

    5 years. MCD has a volatility rank of 97, which is significantly higher than industry rank of 55.16

    Firms business risk contains no leverage. It is the risk related to its operations. While levered

    beta contains both financial risk and business risk. Companys almost equal equity and long term

    debt portions, show its considerable financial risk (Bl-Bu= 0.2677).

    Industry analysis

    By the turn of the century, in a single day an average of four out of every ten people frequented

    an eating establishment, and the total portion of the American food dollar spent eating out had

    grown to 45 percent. Despite being dominated in the advertising media by the mega fast-food

    16 Value engine detailed research report MCD

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    chains, such as McDonald's, most restaurants remained small operations into the twenty-first

    century.17

    We believe that impact of current recession on the industry will be negative. Falling disposable

    incomes and the increasingly frugal consumer, arising from the recession will see this industrysuffer in the current period. Consequently, consumers are likely to increase consumption of

    foods cooked inside the home, thereby reducing their expenditure on eating out. Rising

    unemployment and falling household incomes pose the biggest threat to industry growth, as

    consumers become more wary of their spending habits. Further, the high level of market

    saturation provides limited growth opportunities for expansion. Given that fast food outlets are

    considerably cheaper compared to full-service restaurants, consumers will shift their eating-out

    preferences to cheaper alternatives during the recessionary period. As a highly saturated industry

    with low barriers to entry, industry participation and employment are expected to decrease as the

    major franchised players continue to consolidate their operations in order to reduce competition.

    The industry is labor intensive given the need for personal, face to face service and labor input in

    all areas from acceptance of deliveries, order-taking, serving and cleaning, as well as in the

    management of each store. Revenue volatility is low due to the very high household penetration

    rate for quickservice meals. The industry also covers a wide variety of foodstyles, of appeal to

    changing consumer tastes and demand.18

    Company analysis & influence from financial & economic events

    Since 2003, MCD has been on the move. It has come along with a stock price of $12.50 to $57.

    Their ability to innovate in the food service cannot be matched by any of its competitors.

    Although the market had too much move, the companys share is rising as investors are finding

    safe heaven in the Big Mac. One of the reasons to hold is also the global exposure. The inclusion

    of the Plan to Win since 2003 has shown a dynamic way in approaching the business.19

    The strategy focused by McDonald has helped it in gaining higher sales, revenue and better

    result for the shareholders. Major focusing in brand affordability, menu variety and other

    choices it managed in increasing the global sales in spite of the present economic environment.

    17 Business & Company resource center, FDU online library18 IBIS World, Industry outlook, SIC Code 581219http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Retail_Content.asp?contentid=289421)

    http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Retail_Content.asp?contentid=289421http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Retail_Content.asp?contentid=289421http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Retail_Content.asp?contentid=289421http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Retail_Content.asp?contentid=289421
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    Thus the strength of the alignment between the company, its franchisees and suppliers has been

    the key to McDonaldss success over the years.

    U.S. Bank and Wells Fargo & Co. both recently announced that theyre offering new lending

    programs that benefit McDonalds U.S. franchisees. The programs deliver favorable financingoptions on restaurant acquisitions, rebuilds and relocations, equipment purchases and restaurant

    improvements. Both banks also stressed that their payments, cash management, and savings and

    checking accounts and other small-business products can also be tailored to the needs of

    restaurant franchises.20

    The stock price knocked down 14% because the company did so well in the first half of the last

    year that it was to match the growth rate. But the recent fall in the stock price is just because of

    the pathole in the drive through lane. McDonald strives to manage its momentum even in this

    economy. Month after month it has shown stronger than expected sales in the United States and

    abroad. Lastly the company had delivered a 55 consecutive monthly of increase in the global

    same store sales. The share of McDonald gained nearly 6% making the company one of the only

    two in the Dow Jones industrial average whose share price rose in 2008. The relentless focus in

    the recent years in improving the store operation and measuring progress has helped the

    company strive long. New service and meal menu is another reason for the companies keeping

    up. Thus it is the motto of quality, service, cleanliness and value that keeps it going. Theexternal factors including the unprecedented volatility in foreign currency rates and commodity

    cost will bring the pressure on the revenue and the margin comparison on the company that

    would that would in turn affect the stock prices in the market.

    Product and service differentiation & diversification through globalization

    The global comparable sales of MCD increased 7.1% in January, 2009. In addition, the sales for

    the MCD worldwide restaurant were up by 2.6%. MCD continues to appeal to the customers by

    offering high quality, affordable meal options and unparalleled convenience. The better

    20http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P118107.asp

    http://www.aboutmcdonalds.com/mcd/media_center.html

    http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P118107.asphttp://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P118107.asphttp://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P118107.asphttp://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P118107.asp
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    performance of McDonalds was the result of the convenient operating hours, combination of the

    menu offerings and promotional activities.

    Source: MCD 2008 Annual report 1

    McDonald provides a great diversification in its services. Most of the restaurants are both

    counter and drive through with indoor and sometimes outdoor seating. It includes various theme

    restaurants like Rock and Roll and the 50s theme. Moreover the business model is slightly

    different from the most of the other fast food chains. Moreover McDonald serves the society by

    meeting its varied needs whether its pertaining to its taste or the rituals.21

    Competitive analysis

    Burger King is a global chain of fast food hamburger restaurants, which ranked No. 2 in the

    world behind McDonalds. The company has some 11,565 in the U.S. and more than 70

    countries, of which 1,260 are company owned and 10,205 are franchised. Burger King has

    established several subsidiaries to develop strategic partnerships and alliances to expand into

    new territories; in Europe, Burger King's subsidiary Burger King Europe GmbH is responsible

    for the licensing and development of BK franchises in the that market, Africa and Western Asia.

    21http://www.spiritus-temporis.com/mcdonald%27s/emblem-for-globalization.html

    34%

    42%

    18%6%

    2008 Revenues in $ millions

    U.S.

    Europe

    APMEA

    Other Countries

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    In Asia, the BK AsiaPac, PTE. Ltd. business unit handles franchising for East Asia, the Asian

    subcontinent and all Oceanic territories except Australia. Burger king was nominated as the best

    licensee of the year. This has helped it in providing the services with great speed and also

    addition of the new product and the new territories.22

    Source: IBIS World, Fast food restaurant 1

    Burger king franchisee has improved the speed of service and operational intelligence with the

    help of PAR Technology which is an completely integrated technology solution. Through this

    system the counter along with the back office activities can be carried on simultaneously with

    ease and speed. It helps in managing the labor, inventory and in store production. Thus it has

    helped the firm in gaining the operational efficiencies thereby giving customer satisfaction and

    improvisation of the speed of service.

    McDonalds opened at $54.05. So far today, the stock has hit a low of $53.03 and a high of

    $54.14. Over the last 52 weeks the stock has ranged from a low of $45.79 to a high of $67.00.

    22http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/826583

    http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/10062.html

    www.nytimes.com

    13%

    10%

    6%

    6%

    5%5%

    2%1%

    52%

    Market Share in %, 2008

    McDonald's Corp.

    Yum1 Brands, Inc.

    Wendy's/Arby's Group, Inc.

    Starbucks Corp.

    Burger King Corp.

    Doctor's Associates Inc.

    Domino's Inc.

    Jack in the box, Inc.

    Other

    http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/10062.htmlhttp://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/10062.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/http://www.nytimes.com/http://www.nytimes.com/http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/10062.html
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    Shares of MCD are trading lower after competitor Burger King Holdings reported preliminary

    third-quarter revenue of $600 million.

    Options

    Yes. There are options available on the stock of this firm.

    When we observe options trading for the firm, the higher volume traded options are found to be

    out of money. After observing volume trading for both call & put options for MCD, stock of

    MCD was found to be overpriced. This shows market expectations for the MCDs stock price to

    fall in specific time.

    Capital structure & bond rating

    As of December 2008,

    Long term debt Short term debt Total Equity

    10,186,000,000 2,538,000,000 13,382,000,000

    Total debt= 10,186,000,000 + 2,538,000,000 = 12,724,000,000

    Debt in capital structure= 12,724,000,000/ (12,724,000,000+13,382,000,000) = 48.74% with80% long term debt and 20% short term debt.

    Rating agency Rating

    Standard & Poors A

    Moodys Aa2

    Fitch A

    Bond yield Vs. Treasury yield

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    We have taken following bond into consideration:23

    Current price 106.55

    Coupon rate 4.125%

    First payment date Dec 1, 2003

    Maturity June 1, 2013

    YTM 2.446%

    24

    MCD bond yield Vs. US Treasury yield 1

    Stock Ratings

    Analyst Rating

    The Street Bbuy with target price $65.45

    ValuEngine Positive- buy with fair value $64.70

    Price target research Positive B- buy with target price $60 in 6

    23 Yahoo! Finance24 Corporate bond yield was taken from www.investinginbonds.com

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    months

    Standard & Poors Strong Buy- with target price of $66 in 12

    months

    Shares are likely to be viewed as somewhat of a defensive play as the global economy slows, or

    even contracts, in 2009. Furthermore, the $2.00 per share annual cash dividend is an additional

    attraction to owning the shares. In summary, we view the shares as recession resistant, but not

    recession immune.

    Upper management team

    Name Position acquired

    Andrew McKenna Sr. Chairman

    James Skinner Vice Chairman & CEO

    Ralph Alvarez President, COO & Director

    Peter Benson CFO

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    Vanguard Bond Index Fund Short (NYSE: VBISX)

    Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index is ranked among 343 Fixed Income General Short funds by

    S&P's three-year and overall rank of this fund. Funds are ranked on three year Sharpe Ratio.

    The Fund seeks to track the performance of a broad, market-weighted bond index. Based on an

    evaluation of certain characteristics of this fund, Standard & Poor's classifies Vanguard Short-

    Term Bond Index as a Fixed Income General Short fund. Fixed Income General Short Funds seek

    current income and preservation of capital. In pursuit of these objectives, the managers of such

    funds invest primarily in investment-grade corporate bonds, U.S. Treasury securities or bonds

    issued by U.S. government agencies.25

    VBISX fund is from Vanguard family and it has been managed by Davis since January, 2005. It is

    headquartered in Valley Forge, PA.

    25Standard & Poors, VBISX Fund report

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    26

    27

    TOP 10 PERFORMING FUNDS IN THIS CATEGORY (BASED ON 3-YEAR TOTAL

    RETURNS)28

    Name Ticker Return Lipper Leader

    TotalReturn

    ConsistentReturn

    PreservationTax

    ConsistencyExpense

    1.Vanguard Sh-Tm Bd;Adm VBIRX 5.88%

    2.Vanguard Sh-Tm Bd;Inv VBISX 5.80%

    3.Allegiant:Ltd Mat;I AINIX 5.21%

    4.Janus Short-Term Bond JASBX 4.94%

    5.Allegiant:Ltd Mat;A AINRX 4.91%

    6.Allegiant:Ult Sh Bd;I ASDIX 4.83%

    7.Northern Instl:Sh Bd;A BSBAX 4.70%

    8.HighMark:Sht-Tm Bd;Fid HMSFX 4.67%

    9.Allegiant:Ult Sh Bd;A ASDAX 4.63%

    10.T Rowe Price ShTm Bd PRWBX 4.58%

    26 Yahoo! Finance27 The Wall Street Journal28 The Wall Street Journal

    5%

    0%

    95%

    0%

    VBISX Fund

    composition

    Cash

    Stocks

    Bonds

    Other

    76%

    11%

    7%6%

    Sector weightings

    Government/

    AAA rated

    A rated

    BBB rated

    AA rated

    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