55
INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24 th February 2012 2011 results and comments 1
INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE
24th February 2012
2011 results and comments
1
Disclaimer
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to belooking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu pcl. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
2
1. Focus: reserves update
2. Coal operations
3. Coal marketing
4. Power business
5. Financial summary
Appendices
3
1. Focus: reserves update
4
Changes in Banpu coal reserves 2011 (equity basis)Unit: Mt
CHINA146
-50
96
-1
95-51Daning
divestment
INDONESIA
218 218
-16 +68
270+52
-15 +4 +32
AUSTRALIA +21308 308 329
BASIS END 2010 DIVESTMENT POST-TRANSACTION
BASIS
SALES DEPLETION
END 2011REVISED MINE PLAN
EXTENDED MINE PLAN
5
S S
Growth in Banpu’s coal reserves (equity basis) since 2006
Organic increase in reserves*
Study and LT price1, Geotech impact :
Exploration, study and LT price2:
Exploration, study and LT price2:
Study2: Exploration, study and LT price2:
Exploration, new technology (IPCC):
Indominco (+24) Indominco (+14)
Kitadin (+7)
Bharinto (+13)
Indominco (+49)
Trubaindo (+20)
Trubaindo (+3)
Daning (+17)
Indominco (+30)
Trubaindo (+26)
Termination UG project:
Indominco UG (-9)
Indonesia coal (+68)
Australia coal (+36)
+11Mt
+34Mt +69 Mt +20
Mt+47Mt
+104Mt
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-61 Mt** +97 Mt +308 Mt -30 Mt -50 Mt
ITM IPODaning (+29)Gaohe (+68) Centennial
ITM 9%Sell down
DaningDivestment
Acquisition increase (and divestment decrease) in reserves
6
q ( )
* Not including the effect of sales depletion**Excludes divestment of Barasentosa
Note1: ITM 100% Note 2: ITM 74%
Focus on reserves growth 2011: Indonesia coal (equity basis)JORONG INDOMINCO KITADIN EMB & TM TRUBAINDO BHARINTO
Unit: Mt
SALES
-1097+25 112
25
RESERVES GROWTH SALES
-470 66
29
+43 72
YE 2010 YE 2011SALES
-15 4
YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2010 YE 2011
SALES
-116 15
YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2010 YE 2011
RESERVES GROWTH
• In-Pit Crushing Conveying (‘IPCC’) system means it will be economic to go deeper (and mine more resources)
RESERVES GROWTH: INDOMINCO
• Engineering studies (including IPCC) and further exploration drilling have boosted reserves estimates
RESERVES GROWTH: BHARINTO
economic to go deeper (and mine more resources)
• IPCC facilitates cheaper and quicker OB removal costs from deeper pits (enabling overall OB costs per bcm to remain competitive).
E l ti k h l b t d t E Bl k i
exploration drilling have boosted reserves estimates
• Further reserves upgrades are planned at Bharinto based on additional exploration and mining studies
• Exploration work has also boosted reserves at E Block in 2011
• Further reserves upgrades are planned at E Block based on additional exploration and mining studies
7
Focus on reserves growth 2011: note on IPCC method
SPREADER STOCKPILE
IPCC ILLUSTRATIONSEMI-MOBILE CRUSHER
PIT BENCHES
IN-PIT100 m
BACKHOEEXCAVATOR
TRUCK
CONVEYORS 100 m
CONVEYOR
50 mIN-PITCRUSHER
50 m
• IPCC, electricity-based mining method, tends to require higher capex, but lower opex compared to diesel excavation and trucking
• Requires sufficient mine life (10 years+) and sufficient volume
SPREADER
• Requires sufficient mine life (10 years+) and sufficient volume
• Typically allows economic OB and coal excavation at depths of 100-200m where conventional truck/shovel method would not be economic.
8
Focus on reserves growth 2011: Australia coal (equity basis)MANDALONG NEWSTAN (EXTENSION) ANGUS PLACE SPRINGVALE OTHERS
Unit: Mt
88 5 MINE PLAN 118 +10-6 122
MINE PLAN REVISED
SALES
8883
-5
57 57
252
+32
13
43DEVELOPED
SALES
MINE PLAN REVISED
32 -6-125
SALES
118 6
YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2010 YE 2011
SALES
-213
YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2010 YE 2011
• ANGUS PLACE (+32 Mt)Completion of a pre feasibility and accompanying exploration drilling programme has resulted in a 64 Mt (100% basis)
RESERVES GROWTH: WESTERN OPERATIONS
Completion of a pre-feasibility and accompanying exploration drilling programme has resulted in a 64 Mt (100% basis) increase in reserves.
• CLARENCE (+9 Mt) A review of the mine plan has resulted in 11 Mt (100% basis) increase in reserves.
• SPRINGVALE (-6 Mt) Change to the mine plan to reduce surface land subsidence to comply with State and Federal approval processes.
9
Banpu’s reserves and resources at YE 2011 (equity basis)
MONGOLIAUnit: Year*
IMPLIED MINE LIFE RESERVES AND RESOURCES AT YE 2011
CHINA 95
695**
26
28
AACI ACQUISITION
ORGANIC RESERVES GROWTH
CEY ACQUISITION
ITM SELL DOWNDANING DIVESTMENT
ORGANIC RESERVES 95
190
22
2423 yrs @ 16Mtpa
20 yrs @ 19Mtpa
22 yrs @
RESERVES GROWTH
Banpu
INDONESIA270
60318
20
15 yrs @
22 yrs @ 31Mtpa
22 yrs @ 32Mtpa
18 yrs @ 13Mtpa
ITM
AUSTRALIA330Total resources: 3 457 Mt12
14
16 15Mtpa
13 yrs @ 14 yrs @ 16Mtpa
15 yrs @ 14Mtpa
17 yrs @ at 16Mtpa
Resources (equity basis)
Reserves (equity basis)
1,696
330Total resources: 3,457 Mt
Total reserves: 695 Mt10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
y @13Mtpa
p
Note: Banpu’s reported resources are measured and i di t d l ( i f d )
10
Reserves (equity basis)
* Year end reserves divided by saleable output (equity basis).** Hunnu’s reserves and resources are currently under review post-acquisition.
indicated only (no inferred resources).
2. Coal divisions2. Coal operations
(a) Indonesia coal
(b) Australia coal
(c) China coal
(d) Mongolia coal
11
Indonesian coal operations in 2011
Coal output :2011 saleable output KITADINTANDUNG MAYANG
ITM OPERATIONS & PROJECTS COMMENTS
p
4Q11 : 6.8 Mt 2011 : 25 Mt
East Kalimantan
INDOMINCO 14.8 Mt Bontang Coal Terminal
TANDUNG MAYANG0.4 Mt
Project updates:Bunyut Port
14.8 Mt
TRUBAINDO 7.1 Mt Samarinda
Captive coal-fired power
project
Indominco : feasibility study on East Block washing plant underway; completed pre-feasibility of In-Pit Crusher Conveyor
BalikpapanCentral Kalimantan
KITADIN-EMBALUT
1.3 MtBHARINTO
Bontang Coal Terminal : continued study expansion of port and mine stockyard capacity
Palangkaraya
Banjarmasin
South Kalimantan
Bharinto : coal hauling road to port to be completed in 1Q12
j
JORONG 1.0 MtJorong Port
OperationProject
OperationProject
POWER
COAL
12
Indonesian quarterly output and SR analysis INDOMINCO - BONTANG TRUBAINDO - BHARINTO OTHER OPERATIONS
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*
CV: 6050 - 6500 kcal/kg**
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*
CV: 6250 - 7200 kcal/kg**
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*
CV: 5750 kcal/kg**
2 1 2 0
0.4
0.5
CV: 6050 6500 kcal/kg CV: 6250 7200 kcal/kg CV: 5750 kcal/kg
3.6Mt3.1Mt
4.4Mt
3.4Mt
4.5Mt
TDM
YC
K
NTO
0.3Mt 0.3Mt0.3Mt
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12e
0.5Mt0.4MtKIT
AD
IN
1 7 1 8 2.11 8 1 7 2.1 2.1
1.3 1.7
2.1 2.0
1.5CV: 5300 kcal/kg**
BLO
CK
WB
LO
1.5Mt1.8Mt1.7Mt
BA
IND
OB
HA
RIN
1.6Mt2.1Mt
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12e
RO
NG
1.5 1.7 1.8 2.11.61.8 1.7 2.1 2.1
1.6
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12e
E B
TRU
B1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12e
0.3Mt 0.4Mt0.4Mt
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12e
0.2Mt0.3MtJOR
STRIP RATIOS (b /t) STRIP RATIOS (b /t) STRIP RATIOS (b /t)STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t) STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t) STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
13.1 13.315.8
12.5
WB
LOC
K
11.58.9 8.7
11.2
KIT
AD
IN
10.9 10.910.1 10.9
E B
LOC
K
14.1 12.410.0
11.9
TRU
BA
IND
O
8.68.6 8.6 8.6JOR
ON
G
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
13
Note: *Output figures are saleable coal
**CV figures are air-dried basis
Banpu average selling prices in 3Q10Banpu’s Indonesian coal average selling prices in 4Q11
BJI vs. BANPU’S INDONESIAN ASP COMMENTS
USD/tonne
Comparative ASP trend shows traditional lag, due to mix of pricing and contract length vs.160
180
200
Monthly BJI
Quarterly BJI
Quarterly ASPpricing and contract length vs. spot indices
ASP captured earlier premium so80
100
120
140
160
ASP captured earlier premium so that the impact of more lower quality tonnes was limited (or albeit at higher margin)0
20
40
60
7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1ASP 4Q11 $102.84 (+4% QoQ)
ASP 2011 $ 97 06 (+30% YoY)
g g )
Mar
-07
Jun-
07
Sep
-07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
ASP 2011 $ 97.06 (+30% YoY)
BJI* February 23, 2012 $116.30
* Barlow Jonker Index: benchmark NSW FOB thermal coal index
1414
Indicative 2012 coal sales
COAL SALES CONTRACT AND PRICING STATUS COMMENTS
Contract Status Price Status
Contracted Fixed
87% 51%
Marginally higher priced commitment than usual for risk management
13%31%
13%
Can still capture upside in Unpriced and in the decreasingly elastic prices
6% of indices IndexedUncontracted
Unpriced
Unsold
As at 9 Feb 2012
TARGET SALES 2012: C. 27 Mt
15
Coal sales by geographic destination (ITM and Thai) Indonesian coal sales by destination 2011 (24.7 Mt)
JAPAN
0 9Mt1.3Mt
HONG KONG S.KOREA1.2 Mt
2012 20122012ITALY
1 8Mt
2012 CHINA 2012
4.5Mt4 2Mt
5.8Mt1 8Mt
5.1Mt
2009 2010 2011
0.9Mt
1.3Mt
0.6Mt
1.8Mt1.4 Mt1.8Mt
2.6Mt
4.0Mt4.2Mt1.8Mt
2009 2010 2011
2009 2010 2011
2009 2010 2011
INDIA2.2Mt 2.3Mt
2012
2009 2010 2011
2009 2010 2011
0.9MtTAIWAN
2.1Mt2.6Mt 2.5Mt
2012
INDONESIA PHILIPPINESTHAILAND
OTHERS*
0 9Mt 1.1Mt 1.3Mt 2012 2012 2012
2009 2010 2011
2009 2010 2011
Mid-to-High CV (≥ 6200 kcal/kg adb)
Low-to-Mid CV (< 6200 Kcal/kg adb)
2.1Mt
1.3Mt1.8Mt1.8 Mt
1.1Mt1.6Mt
1.3Mt
2.1Mt
0.7Mt*Includes small non-
0.9Mt
162009 2010 20112009 2010 20112009 2010 2011
2012 Banpu sales trend
Includes small, nonregular purchasers
16
2. Coal divisions2. Coal operations
(a) Indonesia coal
(b) Australia coal
(c) China coal
(d) Mongolia coal
17
Australian coal operations in 2011
WESTERNNORTHERN
OPERATIONSROM output (equity basis) :
CENTENNIAL’S OPERATIONS & PROJECTS COMMENTS
Charbon Newstan Lochiel(development project) Newcastle
(NCIG)
Newcastle
Inglenook
WESTERN OPERATIONS
OPERATIONS
4Q11 : 3.7 Mt 2011 : 15.4 Mt
Key operation and project updates:
Ivanhoe
Airly
Neubecks Angus Place Mandalong
Mannering
Myuna
Awaba (NCIG)Port Waratah (PWCS)
Key operation and project updates: Mandalong: ROM 1.19 Mt down 32%
due to LW changeover as plannedIvanhoe
North
Clarence
Springvale Angus Place: ROM 1.06 Mt up 156%
QoQ, smooth ramp-up following LW changeover in September
Sydney
Open-cut mineUnderground mine
Springvale: ROM down 49% QoQ due to reduction in panel length and LW changeover
Wollongong
Port Kembla (PKCT)
Project
Port
Power station
RoadRail
Note: Centennial equity ownership 100% unless shown
Newstan : Continued roadway development
Note: Centennial equity ownership 100% unless shown in brackets
18Note: LW = Longwall
Australian coal in 4Q11 (equity basis)
W
CENTENNIAL ROM OUTPUT (Mt) SALES (Mt) SALES: EXPORT/DOMESTIC (Mt)
1 4
Western OperationsAirly (100%)
3.73.71.6 1.71.5 1.4
1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
4.1
3.4
1.61.4
1.4
1.3
Angus Place (50%)
Charbon (95%)
Clarence (85%)
Springvale (50%) Exp
ort
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q111Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12p g ( )
Northern Operations es
tic
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
2.6
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12e
2 0
2.7
2 02.3
2.12.3
2.7
2.1
OperationsAwaba (100%)
Newstan (100%)
Mandalong (100%)
Dom
e
2.1 2.0 2.01.9 2.0 2.0
g ( )
Mannering (100%)
Myuna (100%)1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q111Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12e 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
19Note: 14.9 Mt sales (export/domestic) includes 400,000 tonnes third-party output coal sales.
Australian coal sales and revenue structure (equity basis)
2010 2011
ExportExport
SALES TONNESDomestic 61%
Export 39%
Domestic 66%
Export 34%
SALES REVENUEDomestic 40%
Export 60%
Domestic 50%
Export 50% 50%50%
20
Australian indicative export sales 2012
COAL EXPORT SALES CONTRACT AND PRICING STATUS SALES BY DESTINATION 2011
Contract Status Price Status Total 5.8 Mt
36%
Contracted Fixed 3%12%
Others / Traded coal
China
72%
28%16%
28%
20% Indexed29%
33%
22%Korea Taiwan
Uncontracted
33%
JapanUnpricedUnsold
As at 20 February 2012
TARGET EXPORT SALES 2012: c. 6.3 Mt (equity basis)
21
Quarterly equity ROM output
4.55.0
Total equity ROM (Mt)
3 7
4.43.9 3.9
4.8
4.0
ACTUAL PLANNED (INDICATIVE ONLY)
1.9 2.02.7
2.0 2.31.8
2.5
2.1
2 02.53.03.54.0 3.6 3.7 3.7
NO
RTH
ER
N
1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.62.1 2.3 1.9
0.00.51.01.52.0
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
WE
STE
RN
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12West North
2011 2012
LW move Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mandalong(100%)
Angus Place
3wks
3wks
3wks
7 wks(50%)
Springvale(50%)
6 wks 12 wks
22
Normal production Bolt-up/commissioning LW relocationNote: Bar width is indicative of the equity production contributions to Centennial
Indicative operating costs and ASP
A$/t50 Mining costs in 2011: A$48/t$48
INDICATIVE AVERAGE MINING COSTS COMMENTS
40
45
50
$43 $42
Open cut contractor cost
Mining costs in 2011: A$48/t (2010: A$47/t)
Selling, distribution and royalties in 2011: A$13/t
$48$47
Depreciation
30
35
General expenses
Coal handling & preparationCash overhead
Open-cut contractor cost royalties in 2011: A$13/t (2010: A$11/t)
As exports grow the average operating costs per tonne will
20
25 Repairs & maintenance
Stores & supplies
operating costs per tonne will increase - but ASP will also increase
2011 ASP was A$72.5/t with
5
10
15
Labor
0 S as $ 5/continued improvement expected in 2012 as exports increase
0
5
FY09 FY10 2010 2011
Export plan 2012 (Mt): c. 40% (2011: 39%)
2011Years ending June
23
Centennial gearing
0 49 C t i l’ t i t t b i d bt
NET DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO CENTENNIAL’S DEBT
0.24
0.35
0.490.36
Centennial’s net interest-bearing debt at end Dec 2011 was A$ 323 million
Balance sheet shareholder’s equity at $
2008 2009 2010 2011
end Dec 2011: A$ 901 million
Centennial has a mix of AUD fixed rate, AUD floating rate and USD fixed rate debt
USD 225 million debt private placement completed in October with
FX STRUCTURE OF DEBT (END December 2011)
Fixed 11% USD Fixed48%
AUD Fixed37%
p prange of 10 to 15 year maturities at weighted average coupon of 4.55%
Placement took advantage of lowerAUD Float15%
Placement took advantage of lower cost USD debt and is hedge vs USD export revenues
2424
Australian coal: key takeaways
Sales revenue A$1,093.8m ▲ 25% YoY
EBITDA A$328.3m ▲ 78%
FINANCIALS Strong output performanceRecord performances from Mandalong, Clarence andEBITDA A$328.3m ▲ 78%
NPAT A$122.4m ▲ 217%
Cash flow From operations A$314 1m ▲150%
Mandalong, Clarence and Myuna with strong performances from Angus Place and Awaba also Increasing export focus
- From operations- CAPEX
A$314.1mA$243.0m
▲150%▼1%
Gearing – Net debt / EV 26.4% ▼ 6.5%
Improved sales mix, with exports representing 39% of sales (2010: 34%)
DEVELOPMENTS ORGANIC GROWTH LOGISTICS PORT ALLOCATION
Significant increase in reserves at Angus Place.
Banpu Board Approval for development of NewstanE t i bt i d
3 of 7 locomotives delivered, and a fleet of wagons already in service -enabling greater control of export logistics.
Additional 4.6 million tonne preliminary allocation at Newcastle recently obtained, with an EOI process underway at PKCT.
2525
Extension obtained p g p y
2. Coal divisions2. Coal operations
(a) Indonesia coal
(b) Australia coal
(c) China coal
(d) Mongolia coal
26
China coal operations
PRICE vs. COST (RMB/t)PRICE vs. COST (RMB/t)
AVERAGE793
771
BANPU’S CHINA 2011 COAL PRODUCTION TARGETS*
AVERAGE
PRODUCTION COST
AVERAGE COAL PRICE
627
742
480
512
764
480
629
638
PRODUCTION COST
AVERAGE COAL PRICE
BEIJING
Gaohe (45%),Shanxi
6 Mt
COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM)
COST
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
407
COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM)
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
435
COST
0.49Mt
COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM)COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM)
0.35Mt 0.31Mt0.49Mt0.57Mt
0.30Mt 0.30Mt0.80Mt
Hebi (40%),Henan1.5 Mt Gaohe
CV: 6500-8000 Kcal/kg**
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12eHebi Zhong Tai MiningCV: 5300-6800 Kcal/kg**
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12e
OperationProject
OperationProject
POWER
COAL
Banpu 45% Banpu 40%
Hebi obtained approval from the Henan Energy Bureau in early July for expansion of its coal output to 1 5 Mtpa
Pre-production stage.
27
coal output to 1.5 Mtpa
Note: *ROM production
**Air-dried basis
China coal project: Gaohe
Began operating 2 longwall units during Q4Began operating 2 longwall units during Q4.
Started test run of the degas drill during Q4 forimproving degassing efficiency.
Through Q4, five of eight required inspectionscompleted and passed, still remaininginspections are :Gaohe Mine Site Verification of Water and Soil Conservation Environmental Protection Verification Safety Facility Acceptance
Remaining inspections and the Final Inspectionwill be completed by Q2 2012 then apply forProduction and Safety Licenses.
Longwall shields
28
2. Coal divisions2. Coal operations
(a) Indonesia coal
(b) Australia coal
(c) China coal
(d) Mongolia coal
29
Hunnu projects (under review)HUNNU PROJECTS MAP
N ii
Unst KhudagAltai NuursAr Zuun Gol/Zuun Gol
Buyan Bulag
Tsagaan
Delgerekh
Khavtsal
Nariin Munh Haan
Tenuun-2Khuree-2
BuyanBuyan Bulag
Tsant Uul
Tsokhio
Projects
Project Location Interest (%)Altai Nuurs Gobi Altai 70%Unst Khudag Middle Gobi 80%Tsant Uul South Gobi 80-90%Buyan South Gobi 60%Tenuun-2 South Gobi 60%Tsokhio South Gobi 60%Khuree-2 South Gobi 60%Tsagaan Delger Middle Gobi 85%Delgereh Middle Gobi 85%Ar Zuun Gol/ Zuun Gol Gobi Altai 70%Sukhbaatar* Other 60%
3030*Includes Munh Haan, Nariin and Khavtsal
3. Coal marketing
31
Main 2012 coal market drivers
WEATHER CHINESE DEMAND OTHER DRIVERS
• Gas/oil (and nuclear) favour coal.
• Developing scarcity of benchmark
• Indonesia wet season seems normal (↓ 20% rain) but some operations more affected than others Can 2H be as
• Currently demand weak, stocks high, but not versus consumption level. p g y
quality coal
• Growing supply (and demand) for off-spec coal.
• Europe a supply issue not demand i
affected than others. Can 2H be as good as 2H 2011?
• Chinese winter is normal. Will wet season boost hydro?
• Production varies by region, transport and lower quality still a constraint.
issue
• Can U.S.A. continue to sell below cost?
• How much LRC can be shipped in 2012?
season boost hydro?
• Australian weather damage yet to appear.
• 2011 weak 1Q, improving 2Q and exceptionally strong 3 and 4Q.
• 2012 similar? But higher starting 2012?
• How long can Indian politics cap tariffs/ slow growth/ and cap currency
• World growth forecast 2.0% Asian growth forecast 6.0%
base?
Sources: Country Forecast February 2012 from The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2012 32
Banpu average selling prices in 3Q10Seaborne thermal coal benchmark prices
Indonesian indices followFOB Richards Bay 6000 kcal/kg NAR
COAL PRICE BENCHMARKS COMMENTS
Indonesian indices follow seasonal impact more than other indices
S th Af i i d i ff t d b150
FOB Richards Bay 6000 kcal/kg, NARFOB Newcastle 6300 kcal/kg, GARFOB Kalimantan 5900 kcal/kg, GARFOB Kalimantan 5000 kcal/kg, GAR
South African index is affected by higher railing, coinciding with greater competition from Indonesia and lately Australia and120
130
140
Indonesia and lately Australia and Colombia for off-spec coal
100
110
120
US$
/ to
nne
70
80
90
60Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
3333
China thermal coal market reviewChina thermal coal market review
CHINA DOMESTIC COAL PRICES CHINA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS/EXPORTS ANNUALIZED ACTUAL IMPORT 2011 & 1Q12 ESTIMATE
128
143
103
End Dec’11 13 Feb’12
(RMB) (RMB)
Datong 875 830
Shanxi 815 775
Common 710 675
MtMt
?
73
c.100
93
1 000
RMBNet
import
6558
18700
800
900
1,000
Net import96 Mt
? Mt
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 Est
18 147
2009 2010 2011 2012500
600
700
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12eEst.
Import ExportImport Export
S l / 13 F b 2012
Datong super mixed coal (6,000 kcal/kg)
Shanxi super mixed coal (5,500 kcal/kg)
Common mixed coal (5,000 kcal/kg)
S Chi C l R t F b 2012 MS&L E ti t
34
Source: www.sxcoal.com/cn 13 February 2012 Sources: China Coal Report February 2012, MS&L Estimates
34
4. Power business
35
Thailand power : BLCP in 4Q11 (100% basis)Bt. million
Q-Q: -57%
Y-Y: 320%
Q-Q: -31%Y-Y: 9%
Q-Q: -17%Y-Y: 36%
Y-Y: 320%
1,3052,066
1,4202,843
4,6873,868
Q-Q: -5%Y-Y: 72%
Q-Q: -36%Y-Y: 186%
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11 4Q10 3Q11 4Q11Total revenueAvailability Payment (AP)
564
FX gain
Y Y: 72% Y Y: 186%
1,281
2,329 2,206
344
1,527983
241607
Q-Q: -29%Y Y 74%
99%
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11Energy Payment (EP)
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
EBIT57 308
607
41Y-Y: 74%
87%90%
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11843
2,0621,463
16
-43 FX loss-67
* Based on Banpu’s 50% interest
Equity income*4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
Dispatch (%)4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
EBITDA 36
Thailand power: Hongsa project in Laos
1,800 MW mine-mouth lignite-fired power plant project
COD targeted in 2015
Partnership between Banpu (40%), Ratch (40%) and Lao Government (20%)
Power Plant cornerstone laying ceremony on November 18, 2011
Power Plant completed site leveling and ongoing for foundation work
A d t it i d f
Event: Cornerstone Laying Ceremony on November 18, 2011President of the ceremony: HE Mr Azang Laoly Deputy Prime Minister of Lao PDR Access road to site is ready for
construction materials transportation.HE. Mr. Azang Laoly, Deputy Prime Minister of Lao PDRHosted by:• Minister of Energy and Mines, Mr. Soulivong Daravong; • Chairman of Hongsa Power, Mr. Noppon Milintanggoon.
37
Power China in 2011 (100% basis)
Sales*
(USD m)
EBITDA
(USD m)
Utilization
(hours)
Power tariff
(RMB/kwh)
Coal price**
(RMB/t)BPIC
8 6LuannanHebei Province
Power 100MW;
Steam 128tph
0.44 0.44
666 653
953
1,654
7.5
12.6
0 51.7
40.38.6
6.1 5,8676,140
0.42 0.44 615
671
44.9
Steam 128tph
(Banpu 100% )
Zhengding 821
0.5
10.5 9 17,157
7,238
Hebei Province
Power 48MW;
Steam 180tph
(100%)
1,661
1,853
0.380.397.4
13.2
0.83.3
67540.99.1
0.38 0.38
66269936.3
( )
ZoupingShandong Province 21 0
26.5
926 92790.013.313.1 7,367
6,903804
90977.5
Shandong Province
Power 100MW;
Steam 430tph
(70%)
21.0
3.3 4.01,560
1,887
0.41 0.420.36 0.39
Note: * Unaudited figures, ** Including transportation 3Q11 4Q11 2010 2011 38
5. Financial summary
39
Key external and corporate events N
TS Pheu ThaiUS raising debt
ceiling World growth Th i fl d Italy debt crisis? S&P Glencore
ERN
AL
EVEN
Pheu Thai Party wins general elections
g
S&P downgrades US AAA, markets
growth forecast
downgraded to 4%
Thai flood crisis
Greece
Italy debt crisis?
M h k
downgrades 9 euro zone
nations
Ban BoT cuts
interest rate
Xstrata annouces$90bn merger
EXTE
3Q11 4Q11 Jan 12 Feb 12
Australia carbon tax
US AAA, markets tumble, gold prices soar
Greece referendum Mahakam
Bridge collapse
Iranian oil?interest rate
to 3% Greece passes austerity plan amid protests
VEN
TS
Q Q
10 NovBanpu 3Q11
27 OctUS$225M
RPO
RA
TE
EV
31 AugAnnouncement of
1H11 Bt 9 dividend to be paid on 13 Sep
2011
resultsUS$225M private
placement
7 Nov Closed Offer
of HunnuCompletion of
HAnnouncement
28 Dec 18 Jan
• Banpu 2011 results• 2H11 Bt 9 dividend
to be paid on 30 Apr• R&R upgrades
22 Feb
CO
R 2011 of Hunnu
8 Nov Australia’s carbon tax
(Clean Energy Act) passed
Hunnuacquisition
12 SepAnnouncement
takeover offer
of special Bt 3 dividend to be paid on 10 Feb
40
passed100% of Hunnu
Banpu in 20114Q11 FY 2011
COAL SALES COAL SALES
Bt. million Bt. million
1,489 5,23632,653 112,404
COAL SALES
Down 0.4 Mt-3% Q-Q
COAL SALES
Up 13.7 Mt14% Y-YCEY
ITM
CEY
10.6 Mt 39.6 Mt
3.4
14.9
24.7
Power
31 164
ITM
ITM
7.2
31,164
6 649
68
107,168
1,4991 063
6,718
3,52825,732
20,060*
Coal
P6,649 3,571-43 24,233 18,997
1,063
Revenue EBIT Net Revenue EBIT Net
Coal
Power
Revenue EBIT Net income
Revenue EBIT Net income
Y-Y 52%
Q-Q 6%
Y-Y 117%
Q-Q -21%
Y-Y -28%
Q-Q -16% Y-Y 72% Y-Y 39% Y-Y -19%
Coal Power 41Note: Revenue from others is included in coal
• Includes gains from divestment in Daning
Banpu consolidated sales revenues
Bt. million USD 1,019 m
USD 1,046 m
1,082 1,489
+6% Q – Q +52% Y –Y
Power38% Q – Q+7% Y - Y
Bt 30,685 M Bt 32,653 M
1,019 m
USD 717 m
8,8307,858
1 391
Bt 21,507 M Coal Australia-11% Q- Q+21% Y - Y
*Australian GAAP (AUD Million)
287 260
11* Gain
f10
6,498
1,391
C l I d i
11 from forward
10
276261
13,618
20,77423,306
Coal Indonesia
+12% Q – Q+71% Y - YPower
Coal Australia
3Q11 4Q11
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
Coal Indonesia
42
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
Note: USD exchange rate is the average exchange rate of the corresponding period, Revenue from other is included in Coal.* Under Thai GAAP, this is not included in the revenue.
Banpu consolidated coal gross margin 4Q11 : 48%
12,893
Coal sales12,726 Indonesia gross margin: 52%
AUD millionBt. million
Australia gross margin: 40%287
Australian GAAP
8,254
6 688
230
40%
260
40%
52% 3,948
6,688
49%
6,427
4Q10
36%
3Q11 4Q11
%
49%52%
33%
1 130
49%
53%
6 498
Gross Margin
(%)8,830
7,858
Bt million
Australia gross margin: 38%Thai GAAP
1,604
49%
654624
855
38%
690
1,130
56%47%
6,498
32%
893
53%38% 38%
74%
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
Indominco
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
Trubaindo
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
Jorong
28% 38%
Kitadin
47% 21%
Centennial
4Q104Q10 3Q11 4Q11 3Q11 4Q11
TandungMayang
4Q11
43
Mayang
Banpu consolidated EBITDA and NPAT
Bt. millionBt. million
EBITDA NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
4,923513
183
9,924 8,439 Power
-64% Q-Q615% Y Y
-15% Q – Q+72% Y –Y
-16%
Q on Q
924 1,050
279
4,2083,528
Power
Coal - Australia
308
2,3402,231
183
4 912
+615% Y-Y
Coal - Australia -5% Q-Q+41% Y-Y
-28%
Y on Y
Q on Q
3073,818
Coal - Indonesia
Coal - Australia +14% Q-Q+166% Y-Y
6,764 6,489547
1,577
26
4,912
Coal - Indonesia
*
163
2,697 2,985
547
395
Coal Indonesia +11% Q-Q+1,731% Y-Y
2,764
6,489547 Coal Indonesia -4% Q-Q+135% Y-Y
Coal - China 251% Q Q
Coal - China 251% Q Q163
-464-43
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
(464)
4Q10 3Q11 4Q11
-251% Q-Q-185% Y-Y
-251% Q-Q-185% Y-YPower
44
Power Coal - Australia Coal - China Coal - Indonesia * Including RATCH divestment gain
Banpu consolidated balance sheetGEARING DEBT STRUCTURE
Net D/E (X)
Net gearing (%)
1.06
0 7451% USD Float
THB Fixed18%
Fixed 11% 0.66
0.36
0.74
40%
51% 50%
AUD Fi d
THB Float10%42%
0.14 0.16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
12%
26%14% USD Fixed
15%AUD Float
2%
Fixed5%
As at end of December 2011* Net gearing = ND / (ND+E)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: the consolidated net debt for Banpu (as of the end of Dec 2011) stood at Bt 65.3bn
4545
Appendices
46
Banpu’s resources & reserves statement (100% basis)
Mine operation and project
InterestEnd December 2011 2011 End December 2010
Measured Resources
Indicated Resources
Total Resources
Proved Reserves
Probable Reserves
Total Reserves Coal Sales Total
ResourcesTotal
Reserves
Jorong 65% 131 4 12 4 143 8 5 7 - 5 7 1 4 145 4 7 2
IND
ON
ESIA
Jorong 65% 131.4 12.4 143.8 5.7 5.7 1.4 145.4 7.2
Indominco 65% 590.6 104.7 695.2 129.8 44.0 173.8 14.8 697.2 149.6
Kitadin 65% 111.3 51.5 162.8 5.8 17.5 23.3 1.7 164.6 24.9
Trubaindo 65% 185.8 141.1 326.9 60.4 41.4 101.7 6.8 334.7 108.5
Bharinto 64% 183 5 114 5 298 0 41 3 71 1 112 4 - 298 0 45 4Bharinto 64% 183.5 114.5 298.0 41.3 71.1 112.4 298.0 45.4
Airly 100% - 96.0 96.0 - 33.7 33.7 0.4 97.7 34.2
Angus Place 50% 73.4 176.9 250.3 18.0 67.3 85.3 1.7 254.5 25.2
Awaba 100% 2.0 - 2.0 - - - 0.8 3.6 1.0
Charbon 95% 7 9 7 2 15 1 2 9 1 3 4 2 0 7 17 1 7 0
AUST
RA
LIA
Charbon 95% 7.9 7.2 15.1 2.9 1.3 4.2 0.7 17.1 7.0
Clarence 85% 34.7 189.0 223.7 7.1 48.3 55.5 1.5 227.1 46.7
Ivanhoe 100% 2.5 4.2 6.7 1.3 0.2 1.5 0.2 7.0 1.7
Mandalong 100% 83.0 185.2 268.2 25.9 56.5 82.4 5.5 275.1 88.0
Mannering 100% 19.4 189.2 208.6 - 11.8 11.8 0.6 300.5 9.1A Mannering 100% 19.4 189.2 208.6 11.8 11.8 0.6 300.5 9.1
Myuna 100% 2.7 335.5 338.2 - 15.6 15.6 1.6 343.5 17.2
Springvale 50% 101.9 60.5 162.4 26.9 24.0 50.9 1.3 166.2 62.9
Inglenook 95% - 54.4 54.4 - - - - 54.4 -
Neubecks 50% 31.0 1.9 32.9 16.4 1.7 18.1 - 32.9 18.1Neubecks 50% 31.0 1.9 32.9 16.4 1.7 18.1 32.9 18.1
Newstan Lochiel* 100% 86.0 211.4 297.4 2.3 54.6 56.9 0.04 297.6 57.0
CH
INA Hebi Zhongtai 40% 58.2 - 58.2 25.7 - 25.7 1.7 60.1 27.4
Gaohe 45% 252.7 116.9 369.6 68.9 119.1 188.0 1.8 371.7 189.8
TOTAL 1,957.7 2,052.5 4,010.3 438.4 608.0 1,046.7 42.5 4,339.1 1,010.2
47
TOTAL 1,957.7 2,052.5 4,010.3 438.4 608.0 1,046.7 42.5 4,339.1 1,010.2
Note: Newstan Lochiel is Newstan’s expansion project
Operating profit
2011 Y Y %2010Units: Bt. million 2011 YoY %
112,404 72%
Sales revenues Coal
Total sales revenues*
106 874 78%
2010
65,28559 901
Sales revenues – Power (BIC) 5,236Cost of sales (62,960)
Sales revenues – Coal 106,874 78%8%4,865
(38,640)
59,901
Gross profit* 49,444 86%Gross profit - Coal 48,899 90%Gross profit – Power (BIC) 527 -34%
26,64525,788
796
GPM 44%
GPM Power (BIC) 10%GPM - Coal 46%
41%
16%43%
GPM – Power (BIC) 10% 16%
Note: * Including other business48
Operating profit
Units: Bt million 2011 YoY %2010Units: Bt. million
Gross profit 49,444 86%GPM 44%
2011 YoY %
26,64541%
2010
SG&A (13,687)Royalty (11,370)Income from associates 1,939
(7,447)(6,925)6,117
Dividend income – Coal & Power -Other income 1,105
EBITOther expenses - Operations (1,698)
4891,017
(1,327)EBIT 25,731 39%EBIT - Coal 24,232 61%EBIT - Power 1,499 -58%
18,56915,0083,561
EBITDA 31,768 45%EBITDA - Coal 29,846 66%EBITDA - Power 1,922 -51%
21,95917,9983,961
49
Operating profit
Units: Bt million YoY %2011 2010Units: Bt. million
EBITInterest expenses (3,051)
YoY %2011
25,736 33%(1,682)
2010
18,575
Financial expenses (349)Income tax (core business) (6,565)Minorities (5,338)
(299)(3,301)(1,987)
Net profit before extra items 10,433Non-recurring items* 8,058
-14%11,30613,235
Income tax for non-core (1,941)Net profit before FX 16,550 -35%FX translations 3,510Net profit 20,060 -21%
24,541187
24,728EPS (Bt/share) 73.82
Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses 91.00
50
Banpu consolidated : Operating profit
Units: Bt. million 4Q11 QoQ% YoY%
32,653 6% 52%Total sales revenues*
4Q10
21,507
3Q11
30,685
Sales revenues – Power (BIC) 1,489Cost of sales (17,580)
Sales revenues – Coal 31,034 5% 55%38% 7%1,391
(14,277)
20,0261,082
(16,576)
29,538
Gross profit* 15,073 7% 108%Gross profit - Coal 14,998 40% 134%Gross profit – Power (BIC) 91 10% -55%
7,2307,066
203
14,10914,026
83
GPM 46%Gross profit Power (BIC) 9
GPM P (BIC) 6%GPM - Coal 48%
10% 55%34%
03
1 %35%
46%83
%47%
GPM – Power (BIC) 6% 15%8%
Note: * Including other business 51
Banpu consolidated : Operating profit
Units: Bt. million
Gross profit 15,073 7% 108%GPM 46%
4Q11 QoQ% YoY%
7,23034%
4Q10
14,10946%
3Q11
GPM 46%SG&A (4,550)Royalty (3,438)Income from associates (207)
34%(2,771)(2,066)
522
46%(3,007)(3,199)
843Other income 394
EBIT 6,717 -21% 117%
(207)
Other expenses - Operations (554)374
3,099
522
(190)272
8,549
843
(469)6,717 21% 117%
EBITDA 8,439 -15% 72%
EBIT - Coal 6,649 -18% 108%EBIT - Power 68 -83% -172%
3,099
4,914
3,194(93)
8,549
9,924
8,145404
EBITDA 8,439 15% 72%EBITDA - Coal 8,256 -12% 69%EBITDA - Power 183 -64% -615%
4,9144,886
26
9,9249,412
513
52
Banpu consolidated : Net profit
Units: Bt. million
EBITInterest expenses (818)
YoY%4Q11 QoQ%
6,718 -21% 117%(719)
4Q10
3,101(763)
3Q11
8,549Interest expenses (818)Financial expenses (117)Income tax (core business) (1,897)Minorities (1 691)
(719)(126)(754)(467)
(763)(79)
(2,205)(1 656)Minorities (1,691)
Net profit before extra items 2,194
Non-recurring items* 347
112%-43%(467)1,034
3,586
(1,656)3,847
(236)
Net profit before FX 2,540 -45%FX translations 988Net profit 3 528 28%
-30%
16%
4,620303
4 923
3,610597
4 208Net profit 3,528 -28%EPS (Bt/share) 12.98
Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses
-16%4,92318.12
4,20815.48
53
Centennial : Income Statement
Units: Bt million (THAI GAAP) 4Q11 QoQ%4Q103Q11 YoY%
Cost of sales (4,869) (4,394)
3,395 -17%Sales revenue
Sales volume (k tonnes)
7,858 -11%3,5726,498
(5,446)
4,1048,830
-5%21%
Gross profit 2,989 -12%2,104GPM 38% 32%SG&A (1,376) 5%(982)
3,38338%
(1,316)
42%
40%Royalty (550)SG&A (1,376) 5%
-15% (447)(982)
1 140 -24%EBIT 771Other income 77 -7% 97
(646)(1,316)
1 50483
40%23%
48%-21%
1,140 24%EBIT 771Interest expenses (211)Financial expenses (72)Gain (loss) on exchange rate 83
(193)(65)(37)
1,504(175)(33)(61)
48%
Gain (loss) on exchange rate 83
Corporate income tax 138N t fit
(37)
-Gain (loss) on derivative 348 315
(61)
(302)344
54
Net profit 1,426 12%7911,277 80%
Thermal coal market analysis – 4Q 2010 updateThermal coal market analysis – 1Q 2012 update
RUSSIARising production and CHINA
D d l / t k hi hEAST ASIA
Japan coming to maximum coal burn.
Korea and Taiwan
rail availability supportslimited export increase,
including to Europe.
Demand lower / stocks higher than plan. Wait and see
attitude. ATLANTIC
Demand holds. Supply in excess at present.
USAThermal export up 15 Mt in 2011. Now price below cost for many
consistent.
REST OF ASIAbelow cost for many.
COLOMBIAWeather constraints but
excess Atlantic supply prompts
REST OF ASIAContinued growth
INDONESIA
INDIASOUTH AFRICA
Rail performing well, mines havingAUSTRALIA
Port and rail mismatch.
excess Atlantic supply prompts Pacific sales. 1Q wet season (↓20%)
normal
Gradual stock reduction. Political drag continues.
Rail performing well, mines having trouble adjusting.
Port and rail mismatch. Limited weather impacts so far. Clear shortage of
better coals. = Demand/Supply
= Demand
= Supply
5555
