INVESTOR DIGEST - MOST Digest...since 2016; 4) improving cash conversion cycle from better...

Page 1 of 20 Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

Latest 2019F

7-DRRR (%), eop 5.25 5.25

Inflation (YoY %) 3.49 3.40

US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,179 14,286

JCI Index 6,230.3 1.37%

Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 6,682.4

Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 7,161.9

2019F 2020F

P/E (x) 16.9 15.8

P/BV (x) 2.4 2.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 13.4 12.9

Div. Yield (%) 2.6 2.7

Net Gearing (%) 19.9 18.3

ROE (%) 15.0 14.8

EPS Growth (%) 7.7 7.0

EBITDA Growth (%) 4.2 4.2

Earnings Yield (%) 5.9 6.3

* Aggregate of 79 companies in MS research universe,

representing #DIV/0!of JCI’s market capitalization

Economic Data

Stock Market Data (26 September 2019)

Market Data Summary*

• Strategy: Changes in MANSEK Top 10 • Retail: How to Win Shoppers and Influence Returns • Ace Hardware Indonesia: Party Planning (ACES; Rp1,770; Neutral; TP: Rp1,800) • Bank BTN: More Provisions Before Normalizing in 2020 (BBTN; Rp2,160; Buy; TP:

Rp2,700) • MAP Aktif Adiperkasa: Breadwinner (MAPA; Rp5,250; Buy; TP: Rp7,550) • Matahari Department Store: Feeding Off Dividends (LPPF; Rp3,060; Buy; TP: Rp3,400) • Mitra Adiperkasa: Honor Thy Parents (MAPI; Rp1,025; Buy; TP: Rp1,300) • Panin Bank 8M19 Results - In line with expectations (PNBN; Rp1,300; BUY; TP:

Rp1,550) • Sarimelati Kencana: Right on Track! (PZZA; Rp1,080; Buy; TP: Rp1,400) • Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Plain Vanilla No More (RALS; Rp1,195; Buy; TP: Rp1,600) • Market Recap September 26th 2019; JCI 6,230.33 Points +83.93 pts (+1.37%); Valued

$475mn; Mkt Cap $483bn; USD/IDR 14,179 Changes in MANSEK Top 10

We added RALS into our top picks to replace BBTN. The latter’s new strategic

initiatives, aimed at improving the bank’s quality of balance sheet and earnings

growth, would lead to near-term hiccups. Meanwhile, the former’s business

transformations remains underappreciated while the share price correction has

somewhat partially priced in the challenging macro backdrops.

Addition: Ramayana (RALS). We think that RALS’ ongoing transformations - the

key to ROIC improvement amidst weak income generation - are undervalued.

Under the lifestyle transformations, RALS would see reduced rental expense at

JIL-owned RALS stores and higher rental income generation from the leased out

commercial space at RALS’ own stores. As RALS is trading at the same valuation

multiples as it did in 2015 (-21% YoY EBIT drop – RALS’s weakest performance of

late), we think that the market still merely values RALS on the back of weak

macro landscape: lack – or the inefficiency – of social assistance and weak

commodity exports. Whereas in fact: 1) the supermarket business is no longer

loss- making post-split up from SPAR; 2) over-space issue is being addressed

using its lifestyle concept; 3) higher space allocation for consignment, where

LPPF’s lower threat results in RALS’ ability to raise consignment margin gradually

since 2016; 4) improving cash conversion cycle from better bargaining power to

outright suppliers. On consolidated basis, we expect EBIT-ROIC to further rise,

reaching 70%/75% in 2019/2020 (from 37-70% in 2017-19). we project 6% 2019-

2021 EBIT CAGR, driven by a modest SSSG recovery and optimized fixed cost; our

projection also implies neutral EBIT for RALS’ supermarket business. Read our

latest report here.

HIGHLIGHT

Equity Research | 27 September 2019 INVESTOR DIGEST

STRATEGY

https://www.mandirisekuritas.co.id/r/Sowg

Equity Research | 27 September 2019


Removal: Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN). In a meeting yesterday, BBTN’s management unveiled the new strategic

initiatives to improve the bank’s entire business process that will transition the bank to a have a much better quality of

asset growth, albeit slower. While our Buy call is maintained, the transition will go through a hiccup in 4Q19 before

normalizing in 2020, a reason why we take BBTN out of our top 10 pick for now. The management guided for more

provisioning in 2019, which will lead to a 55% 2019 EPS cut, with a slower 10-12% loan growth in 2019-20 (vs. 18% CAGR

in 2013-18). On a flip side, this means that the bank’s coverage ratio will rise to 76% by 2019 and 127% by 2020, with NIM

bottoming in 2Q19. The bank will also issue Rp4-5trn sub-debt in 1Q20 to improve its capital post-IFRS 9 implementation,

while rights issue is planned for 2021. Read our latest report here.

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]

Retail: How to Win Shoppers and Influence Returns

We re-initiate coverage on Indonesian Retailers with an Overweight rating. As macroeconomic is minimally supportive

and competition is structural, retailers need to be creative in monetizing capital. Benchmarking to global retailers, we see

a lot of room for value creation in the sector, against the market’s bearish view. We encourage investors to reward

companies that can fundamentally improve its ROIC given currently low sector attractiveness.

Focus on strengths, not weaknesses. With the market gradually pricing in the threats of e-commerce on brick and

mortars, counter-intuitively we see high value in the latter’s nation-wide physical presence given the country’s low

infrastructure efficiency. In this report, we map out 3 ways for retailers to unlock that value: 1) optimizing vacant assets

and under-served middle-income shoppers (benchmarking to Robinson and Trent); 2) implementing personalized

shopper analytics (learning from various AI-adopting consumer companies); and 3) embracing e-commerce by allocating

space for last-mile fulfillment (learning from Amazon x Whole Foods and Alibaba x Intime). We think that leaving a plain-

vanilla mindset behind is the key for ROIC improvement given the fast-paced retail innovations and sluggish

consumption. All retailers under our coverage have potentials through either one of the avenues.

Low store penetration; friend or foe? Though keeping ROIC in check is crucial, physical presence still needs to be

fostered for long-term growth. We have mapped out the potential upside for regional expansions (esp. in Tier-2 and Tier-

3 cities) for our covered retailers and its close competitors. Against popular belief, Zara (MAPI) can still open numerous

new stores in numerous cities, assuming certain population coverage and income per capita; but so do H&M and Uniqlo,

which might challenge LPPF and retailers within the same price range. Relatively new-comer Mr. DIY is playing catch-up

with ACES, and we see that adding more stores is possible.

Stock preferences. We re-initiate coverage on Indonesian Retailers with an Overweight rating, not based on sector

attractiveness but on company-specific developments. Our top picks are RALS and MAPI; we think their valuations are un-

demanding and ROIC improvements have been overlooked. We also have Buy calls on PZZA, MAPA, and LPPF (which has

high dividend yield). We are Neutral on ACES after its good 2Y run. STOCK RANK BASED ON TARGET UPSIDE MAPA RALS PZZA MAPI LPPF ACES Order of target upside Recommendation Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Target price 7,550 1,600 1,400 1,300 3,400 1,800 Upside/(downside) 43.8 33.9 29.6 26.8 11.1 1.7 EBIT CAGR 2018-21F 26.0 6.0 12.0 20.0 -6.0 11.0 NPAT CAGR 2018-21F 52.0 8.0 12.0 29.0 16.0 11.0 EV/EBITDA 2020 (x) 9.1 6.3 6.9 5.7 2.6 20.6 P/E 2020 (x) 14.9 12.2 13.8 13.2 5.3 25.7 Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

CORPORATE

https://www.mandirisekuritas.co.id/r/h-e+



RISING GLOBAL INNOVATIONS IN RETAIL, VS INDONESIA’S DEVELOPMENT

Personalised analytics

Tech-proxyfulfillment centers

Resource optimization

● Inditex - MAP Fashion●ACES● Sogo

●Convenience stores

Area optimization:● RALS Lifestyle Mall

Target market optimization:●Under-served mass-market fast fashion

Uniqlo, H&M, online streaming

Robinson,Trent

Amazon x Whole Foods, Alibaba x

Intime

Legend:● Ongoing initiative● Untapped opportunity

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR AREA CONVERSION UNDER LIFESTYLE CONCEPT

* Rental income estimate is based on RALS’ statement and benchmarks with other mall operators Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates



STORE BREADTH ACROSS TIERS

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Lakshmi Rowter (+6221 5296 9549) [email protected]

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]

Riyanto Hartanto (+6221 5296 9488) [email protected]

Ace Hardware Indonesia: Party Planning (ACES; Rp1,770; Neutral; TP: Rp1,800)

With ACES growing its selling space by c.40% in 2Y since 2017, we think that ACES has cemented optimum presence

across the country and fended off competition; it is a matter of time before ACES monetizes these presence. However, as

overhead continues while economy and household capex appear to pause, we prefer a better timing to enjoy the party.

Weakening economy amidst capex cycle. We are a supporter of ACES’ strategic expansions into ACE Express and its

creative merchandising skill. However, we think that the newly added spaces (15% CAGR 2016-19F) have exposed ACES

to the weakening economic growth and household capex, potentially delaying the new stores’ payback; we also expect

that SSSG would remain wobbly until a meaningful macro trigger arises. This is a similar picture to what ACES went

through in 2012-2015, where aggressive store expansion (selling space grew 2.3x in 3Y) stumbled upon a big economic

slowdown – SSSG decelerated by 17ppt in 3Y and landed flat in 2015. We note, that ACES is more prudent this time

around, hence we do not anticipate a similarly blown up working capital; nevertheless, we think that the market needs to

be cautious on its return per sqm.

Normalizing earnings growth, limited multiple upside. ACES might need to soften its currently stable gross margin to

condition a healthy sales/sqm; consequently, we expect a decelerating EBIT CAGR to 9% in 2019-21 (from 19% in 2016-

19). Although the figure is still higher than most peers (we expect RALS/LPPF/MAPI at 5%/-1%/18%), we see limited room

for further multiple re-rating when earnings growth slows and ROIC normalizes. As such, share price would rely on the 9%

avg. EBIT growth in 2020F-21F.

Neutral with Rp1,800 PT. We re-initiate coverage on ACES with a Neutral rating and Rp1,800 PT, implying 25x

avg.2020/2021 PE. The stock currently trades at 25.7x 2020 P/E, 1 std deviation above its 5Y mean. The risk to our thesis

would be the consumption resilience among mid-upper income consumer, higher sales/sqm for ACE Express (30% of

store expansion in 2019), and further monetary stimulus triggering household capex.

CORPORATE



FINANCIAL SUMMARY

YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F EBITDA 941 1,152 1,328 1,427 1,578

Net Profit 778 965 1,110 1,183 1,306

Fully-diluted EPS 45 56 65 69 76

Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) 9.4 24.0 15.1 6.5 10.4

P/E Ratio (x) 39.0 31.5 27.3 25.7 23.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 31.3 25.8 22.2 20.6 18.4

P/B Ratio (x) 8.6 7.2 6.3 5.5 4.9

Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0

ROAE (%) 23.7 24.9 24.5 22.9 22.4

Source: Company (2017-2018), Mandiri Sekuritas (2019-2021) ACES DCF VALUATION DCF Valuation 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Revenue 8,769 9,836 10,848 11,864 12,910 14,030 Operating profit 1,238 1,321 1,462 1,523 1,626 1,725 Income tax (261) (278) (307) (322) (345) (368) Depreciation 90 105 116 124 133 142 Change in working capital: (331) (407) (347) (390) (358) (382) Capital expenditure (250) (175) (129) (142) (156) (172) Free cash flow to firm 487 567 796 793 899 945 PV of FCF 487 567 727 662 686 659

PV 2021-2024 2,734 WACC CalculationPV 2025-2030 6,000 Beta 0.7 PV of terminal value 20,784 Risk Free rate 7%Sum of PV 29,518 Equity risk premium 5%Debt 5 Cost of equity 10%Cash 860 Cost of debt 10%Minority interest (10) Income tax 20%Equity of subsidiary - Cost of debt after tax 8%Equity value 30,363 WACC 9%No. of shares (m) 17,150 LT growth 3%Equity per share (Rp/sh) 1,800

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates, Bloomberg Lakshmi Rowter (+6221 5296 9549) [email protected]

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected] Bank BTN: More Provisions Before Normalizing in 2020 (BBTN; Rp2,160; Buy; TP: Rp2,700)

Our meeting with BBTN’s management indicated more provisioning for 2019, leading to the 55% earnings reduction for

this year. Once the implementation of IFRS 9 is completed in 2020, earnings are expected to normalize going forward. As

we roll out to 2020, we adjust our TP to Rp2,700 and maintain our Buy rating.

Slower asset growth. Post the change of top management, BBTN decides to take bolder steps in cleaning up its assets.

Business process has been changed to a more stringent decision making. This will result in slower loan growth but should

bring improvement in asset quality with less problems in the case of collateral execution. An example in lending to

property developers is making sure they already have the master land ownership title as well as the rights to develop. As

a result, the bank expects lower loan growth of 10-12% pa in 2019-20 compared to 18% CAGR during 2013-2018.

More allocation on FLPP for subsidized housing loans. The current Rp5.2tr budget on liquidity facility for housing

development (FLPP; for 68k units for the industry) will be increased by Rp2tr. This, however, will use banks’ internal funds

first, while the Government will repay interest rate differential on the 2019 portion before the principal is reimbursed in

2020.



NIM at the lowest ever in 2Q19. The 3.33% NIM in 2Q19 is the lowest since it went public. We expect NIM to improve in

2H19 to end up with 3.5% in 2019 and to continue rising to reach 3.9% by 2020.

Asset quality and IFRS 9. BBTN’s NPL increased to 3.32% in Jun19 given the rising problem loans in all sectors except

commercial loan. We expect NPL to decline to 3.1% by the yearend and to 2.9% by 2020. For IFRS 9 implementation, BBTN

will increase coverage ratio to 76% by 2019 and 127% by 2020.

Capital raising in 2020-21. In order to improve capital, BBTN plans to issue Rp4tr-5tr subordinated debt in 1Q20. Sarana

Multigriya Finance plans to take Rp3tr, Taspen Rp1tr, and some other foreign banks to also take some portion. This should

help lift CAR back to the 18-19% level again after the last adjustment for IFRS 9 in Jan20. A rights issue is planned in 2021.

EGM to appoint new management. BBTN will conduct another EGM on 18 October 2019 to appoint the new CEO after

Mr. Suprajarto of BBRI refused the position. Mr. Oni Febrianto, who is the Commercial Banking Director, is the temporary

CEO.

Earnings adjustment. With the changes in the bank’s guidelines, we lower our earnings estimate by 55% in 2019 and by

7% in 2020. We also adjust our TP to Rp2,700 from Rp2,900 based on 1.2x FY20 P/BV. This still merits a Buy. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Pre-Provision Profit 4,776 5,308 5,284 7,313 8,183 Net Profit 3,027 2,808 1,168 3,612 4,138 EPS 286 265 110 341 391 EPS Growth (%) 15.6 (7.3) (58.4) 209.4 14.6 P/E Ratio (x) 7.6 8.1 19.6 6.3 5.5 BVPS 2,046 2,251 2,316 2,276 2,598 P/BV Ratio (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 4.2 ROAE (%) 14.8 12.3 4.8 14.9 16.0 CAR (%) 18.9 18.2 18.6 19.1 17.3 Source: Company (2017-2018), Mandiri Sekuritas (2019-2021) Earnings revisions Year-end Dec 31 OLD NEW Change (IDRb) 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E Net interest income 11,126 13,761 15,944 10,016 12,759 14,494 (10.0) (7.3) (9.1) Net interest margin (%) 3.81 3.98 3.98 3.48 3.87 3.90 — — — Total income 13,549 16,537 19,110 12,360 15,199 17,278 (8.8) (8.1) (9.6)

Pre provision operating profit 5,675 7,640 8,756 5,284 7,313 8,183 (6.9) (4.3) (6.5) Operating profit 3,341 4,989 6,327 1,550 4,664 5,312 (53.6) (6.5) (16.0)

Reported net profit 2,614 3,901 4,947 1,168 3,612 4,138 (55.3) (7.4) (16.3)

Growth/ratios (%): Loan growth 14.5 15.5 16.1 11.4 12.4 14.5 Deposit growth 12.9 16.3 16.4 7.8 11.7 14.2 LDR 104.7 104.0 103.7 106.7 107.3 107.5 NPL 2.5 2.4 2.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 Coverage ratio 72.0 110.4 112.4 75.0 127.0 131.0 Cost of Credit 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.9 Write off to total loans 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 NIM 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.48 3.9 3.9 Cost to income 58.1 53.8 54.2 57.2 51.9 52.6 ROE 10.5 14.6 17.3 4.8 14.9 16.0 CAR 18.1 17.9 17.0 18.6 19.1 17.3

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

Tjandra Lienandjaja (+6221 5296 9617) [email protected]

Priscilla Thany (+62 21 5296 9546) [email protected]

Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) [email protected]



MAP Aktif Adiperkasa: Breadwinner (MAPA; Rp5,250; Buy; TP: Rp7,550)

We initiate coverage on MAPA with a Buy rating. The rising athleisure trend and ongoing efficiency intiatives are key to

MAPA’s superior EBIT growth vs peers, while Skechers’ fast-fashion approach to the sneakers trend might challenge the

market’s bearish view on the brand’s high dominance in MAPA’s portfolio.

Internal efficiency meets athleisure trend. We believe MAPA is set to achieve 17%/23% revenue/EBIT CAGR 2019-2021

on the back of its prudent space expansion (we project c.9% p.a.) and improving sales per sqm. MAPA should deliver

above-peers SSSG, considering: 1) the rising market interest in athleisure and healthy living; 2) value-chain efficiency (incl.

logistics and warehouse) to increase product churn; 3) merchandising intelligence to increase seasonal sell-through. All of

these combined should raise MAPA’s sales per sqm and prevent a rising portion of products discounted; overall margin

improvement should follow.

Is MAPA insulated from trends’ short life cycle? MAPA’s diverse brand portfolio and dominant market share should

partly insulate MAPA from the volatility of customer preference; MAPA’s monopoly should make it a sports principal’s top

pick to carry its brand. We think that the market looks at MAPA’s high dependency on Skechers as a weakness; we think

the opposite, as we see Skechers’ as the athleisure’s Zara – an affordable fast-fashion option for global trends (read our

discussion on Page 9). As such, the rising fame of smaller brands in China (e.g. Fila – carried in Indonesia by Polyfilatex)

should not be a significant headwind for MAPA.

Initiate with a Buy rating; Rp7,550 PT. Our target price implies 19x avg.2020/2021 P/E, based on 3% LTG, 11.8% WACC,

and 6.75% risk-free rate. Brand recognition, above-peers SSSG trend, and multi-tier store formats justify a considerable

multiples premium to peers; MAPA also generates c.8ppt higher ROE versus Indo retail average. In our view, MAPA’s

multiple comes second after ACES, which carries brand ownership and higher ROIC. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F EBITDA 741 1,013 1,309 1,599 1,939

Net Profit 293 353 797 1,004 1,237



P/E Ratio (x) 51.1 42.3 18.8 14.9 12.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 21.4 14.8 11.4 9.1 7.3

P/B Ratio (x) 15.2 6.4 4.8 3.8 3.1

Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.0

ROAE (%) 31.0 21.3 29.2 28.6 28.4

Source: Company (2017-2018), Mandiri Sekuritas (2019-2021) SEASONAL SELL-THROUGH FULL-PRICED SALES CONTRIBUTION

32%

38%41%

47%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

SS17 FW17 SS18 FW18

36%

43%45%

47%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2017 2018 YTD May'18 YTD May'19

Source: Company Source: Company



MAPA’S DCF VALUATION 2019 F 2020 F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

Revenue 7,606 8,890 10,366 12,062 14,069 16,411 19,141 Operating profit 1,142 1,411 1,728 2,099 2,416 2,777 3,189 Income tax (310) (390) (481) (587) (678) (781) (898) Depreciation 167 188 212 239 272 311 357 Change in working capital: (566) (356) (404) (459) (577) (673) (784) Capital expenditure (300) (327) (348) (414) (491) (584) (694) Free cash flow to firm 133 526 706 879 942 1,051 1,171 PV of FCF 133 526 706 879 942 1,051 1,171

Y 1-5 4,748 WACC CalculationY 6-14 11,155 Beta 1.0 PV of terminal value 5,188 Risk Free rate 7%Sum of PV 21,092 Equity risk premium 5%Debt - Cost of equity 12%Cash 365 Cost of debt 10%Minority interest 2 Income tax 25%Equity of subsidiary - Cost of debt after tax 8%Equity value 21,459 WACC 12%No. of shares (bn) 3 LT growth 3%Equity per share (Rp/sh) 7,550


Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected] Matahari Department Store: Feeding Off Dividends (LPPF; Rp3,060; Buy; TP: Rp3,400)

LPPF gives one of the highest dividend yields in the market. Fundamentally, though, we have not seen ROI-accretive

strategies in place that could catalyze multiples re-ratings amidst a weak consumption landscape. EBIT growth upside

appears limited as LPPF continues discounting inventory. We are waiting for positive developments from LPPF.

Waiting for a clear direction. LPPF has been severely penalized for its unfruitful initiatives – still, we have not spotted

any clear strategy within the core department store business. Value proposition remains weak as customers’ desire has

evolved into affordable trendy fashion and comfortable shopping experience, while LPPF has not responded, in our view.

Although LPPF has invested in e-commerce which, based on our belief in data analytics, could provide LPPF insights on

strategy planning, we do not see that the investment is optimized to that extent. LPPF is also limited from replicating

RALS’ Lifestyle concept, as this would overstep the group’s property arms. Therefore, fundamentally, we prefer its peers

with value-creation initiatives.

Weakening ROI; but dividend remains high. We estimate LPPF’s EBIT-ROIC to further weaken on the lack of EBIT

growth (we project -6% EBIT CAGR 2018-21F), weakening working capital (lower bargaining power to suppliers and rising

inventory days), though capex roll-out might become more disciplined. As such, we prefer exposures to other retailer

names with ROIC improvement (e.g. RALS) and those undergoing ROI-accretive capex cycle (e.g. ACES). However, we

cannot deny that LPPF delivers one of the highest dividend yields in the market of 6-14% in 2020-2021, assuming

normalizing payout to 70% (from 2019’s cut to 50%).

Nevertheless, Buy with Rp3,400 PT. We re-initiate coverage on LPPF with a Buy rating and Rp3,400 PT, implying 6x

avg.2020/2021 P/E. The stock currently trades at 5.3x 2020 P/E, more than 2 std deviation below 5Y mean. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F EBITDA 2,663 2,565 2,359 2,308 2,338 Net Profit 1,907 1,097 1,702 1,676 1,699 Fully-diluted EPS 654 376 583 574 582 Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) (5.6) (42.5) 55.1 (1.5) 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 4.7 8.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 P/B Ratio (x) 3.8 4.9 3.0 2.6 2.2 Dividend Yield (%) 15.8 15.0 6.1 13.3 13.1 ROAE (%) 91.2 53.0 71.1 52.2 45.7 Source: Company (2017-2018), Mandiri Sekuritas (2019-2021)



LPPF DCF VALUATION 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Revenue 18,141 18,182 18,484 19,015 19,558 20,110 Operating profit 2,098 2,035 2,051 2,139 2,229 2,321 Income tax (425) (419) (425) (445) (467) (489) Depreciation 261 274 287 300 314 329 Chg in working capital 3 1 5 8 8 9 Capital expenditure (674) (335) (340) (357) (372) (383) Free cash flow to firm 1,263 1,555 1,578 1,645 1,713 1,786 PV of FCF 1,263 1,555 1,393 1,282 1,179 1,086

PV 2021-2024 4,941 WACC CalculationPV 2025-2029 853 Beta 1.3 PV of terminal value 1,346 Risk Free rate 7%Sum of PV 7,140 Equity risk premium 5%Debt - Cost of equity 13%Cash 2,874 Cost of debt 11%Minority interest - Income tax 20%Equity of subsidiary - Cost of debt after tax 9%Equity value 10,015 WACC 13%No. of shares (m) 2,918 LT growth 3%Equity per share (Rp/sh) 3,400


Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected] Mitra Adiperkasa: Honor Thy Parents (MAPI; Rp1,025; Buy; TP: Rp1,300)

Although the market can now enjoy MAPA’s strong earnings growth on a stand-alone basis, we think that the businesses

under the holding company are currently undervalued at only 5x EBITDA. MAPI currently trades close to its 5Y low

multiples when its 2018-21F EBIT CAGR of 20% is above all peers. Buy with Rp1,300 PT.

Though MAPA continues to drive growth... We think that MAPA would continue to drive MAPI’s EBIT growth, with the

former contributing c.68% to the latter’s EBIT by 2021F (vs. 58% in 2018). Meanwhile, we forecast MAPB to undergo SSSG

normalization due to the interim traffic disruption from the expansion hype of coffee business; we estimate 15%

avg.2020/21 EBIT growth. Also, we are expecting a modest growth contribution from MAP Holding’s businesses (7% avg.

2020/21 EBIT growth) as 1H19’s revenue trend appears discouraging (flat YoY); MAPI’s ventures into electronics retailing

and beauty space is creative yet we are unsure about the former’s inventory turnovers and the latter’s positioning amidst

the competitive beauty market.

… the market undervalues the holding company. On EV/EBITDA basis, the market currently values MAPA at c.9x; this

implies holding co’s valuation at 6x. However, as we see value upside for MAPA (at 13x EV/EBITDA, half of ACES’), this

implies that the market only values the holding co at 2x – cheaper than RALS (5x) and similar to LPPF (4x). We think this is

mispriced; MAPI’s ex-MAPA-MAPB business still carries growth-promising brands (e.g. Zara) and improving department

store operations; we forecast 5%/8% revenue/EBIT CAGR 2018-21F for ex-MAPA-MAPB businesses. All combined, we like

both MAPA and MAPI, for the former’s growth outperformance to peers and the latter’s value unlocking.

Buy with Rp1,300 PT, implying 15x avg.2020/2021 P/E. Our SOTP-based valuation assumes 10% holding discount

(historical average: 7%) and 7x 2020 EV/EBITDA for MAPI’s business in the holding co, which we think is still conservative.

This valuation is based on 11% WACC, 3% LTG, and 6.75% risk-free rate. The stock currently trades at c.12x avg. 2020/21

P/E, close to 2 std deviation below its 5Y mean.



FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F EBITDA 1,802 2,269 2,751 3,220 3,748

Net Profit 335 736 1,044 1,293 1,571



P/E Ratio (x) 50.8 23.1 16.3 13.2 10.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 7.9 6.9 5.7 4.8

P/B Ratio (x) 4.2 3.1 2.7 2.3 1.9

Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1

ROAE (%) 9.2 15.5 17.7 18.7 19.2

Source: Company (2017-2018), Mandiri Sekuritas (2019-2021) MAPI EX-MAPA EX-MAPB DCF VALUATION DCF Valuation 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Revenue 10,443 11,138 11,832 12,424 13,045 13,697 Operating profit 522 557 592 621 652 685 Income tax (35) (42) (48) (53) (59) (65) Change in working capital: 20 28 (26) (19) (123) (212) Capital expenditure (500) (500) (500) (500) (500) (500) Depreciation 533 642 756 846 939 1,034 Free cash flow to firm 540 686 773 895 909 941 PV of FCF 540 686 698 728 667 623

PV 2021-2024 2,716 WACC CalculationPV 2025-2028 1,372 Beta 1.0 PV of terminal value 4,132 Risk Free rate 6.8%Sum of PV 8,219 Equity risk premium 5.0%

Cost of equity 11.8%Cost of debt 11.0%Income tax 20.0%Cost of debt after tax 8.8%WACC 10.9%LT growth 3.0%


Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected] Panin Bank 8M19 Results - In line with expectations (PNBN; Rp1,300; BUY; TP: Rp1,550)

PNBN reported bank only net profit of Rp1.9tn in 8M19, +19%yoy, accounting for 66% of FY19 consensus and 64%

of Mansek’s expectations. We estimate consolidated net income to be at around Rp2.1tn, accounting for 69% of

consensus’ and 72% of our expectations – in line with expectations. Operating income declined -1% yoy with the bottom

line continues to be supported by a substantial reduction in provision expenses and managed operating expenses. PPOP

was up by +1%yoy. Aug-19’s net profit stood at Rp235bn, -13%mom/+15%yoy.

Loan growth +1%yoy/flat mom, deposit growth flat yoy/-2% mom. Deposit growth is supported by +1%yoy increase

in time deposits, while both demand and savings deposits declined -2%yoy and -1%yoy each. This brings CASA ratio to

36% in Aug-19 vs. 37% in Aug-18 while LDR was at 102% in Aug-19 and 101% in Aug-18.

NIM is stable at 4.4% in 8M19 and 8M18. Aug-19’s NIM improved to 4.6% in Aug-19 from 4.4% in Jul-19 over

improvement in cost of funds.

Cost to income ratio slightly declined to 50% in 8M19 from 51% in 8M18.

Provision expenses declined -63%yoy in 8M19 to Rp306bn. Cost of credit improved to 0.3% in 8M19 from 0.9% in

8M18 while provision to total loans was at 2.6% in both Aug-19 and Aug-18. We estimate PNBN wrote off approximately

Rp495bn in 8M19 vs. Rp128bn in 8M18.



Maintain Buy with TP of Rp1,550. The stock is trading at 0.8x 2019F P/BV.

Income Statement (Rp bn) Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19 %MoM %YoY 8M18 8M19 %YoY FY19F %of

FY19F FY19 Cons

%of FY19F

Cons Net interest income 667 645 675 5 1 5,133 5,055 (2) 8,493 60 Non interest income 95 81 75 (7) (21) 717 733 2 1,409 52

Operating income 762 726 750 3 (2) 5,850 5,788 (1) 9,902 58 11,352 51

Provision expenses (99) 8 (74) (1,082) (25) (832) (306) (63) (868) 35 Operating expenses (463) (378) (360) (5) (22) (2,959) (2,876) (3) (4,996) 58 Operating profit 200 356 316 (11) 58 2,059 2,606 27 4,038 65 4,162 63

PPOP 299 349 390 12 31 2,891 2,912 1 4,906 59 Pre-tax profit 271 358 312 (13) 15 2,184 2,615 20 4,154 63 4,284 61

Net profit 205 271 235 (13) 15 1,658 1,978 19 2,990 66 3,100 64

Balance Sheet (Rp bn) Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19 %MoM %YoY Gross loans 132,039 134,170 133,695 (0) 1 Demand deposits 9,935 10,196 9,705 (5) (2) Saving deposits 38,400 38,159 37,866 (1) (1) Time deposits 82,227 84,687 83,055 (2) 1 Total deposits 130,563 133,042 130,626 (2) 0 CASA to deposits (%) 37.0 36.3 36.4 Ratio (%) Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19 8M18 8M19 LDR 101.1 100.8 102.3 101.1 102.3 NIM 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.4 ROE 7.2 8.6 7.4 7.5 8.0 Cost to income 60.8 52.0 48.0 50.6 49.7 Cost of credit - net 0.9 (0.1) 0.7 0.9 0.3 Provisioning level 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Priscilla Thany (+62 21 5296 9546) [email protected]

Tjandra Lienandjaja (+6221 5296 9617) [email protected]

Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) [email protected] Sarimelati Kencana: Right on Track! (PZZA; Rp1,080; Buy; TP: Rp1,400)

We remain a believer that PZZA will benefit from Indonesia’s lifestyle changes on dining out and from long-term growth

opportunities by penetrating underserved cities. Supported by strong sales from the help of aggressive aggregators’

expansion and from margin improvement due to new factory and reduction of franchise fee, PZZA is poised to reap the

low hanging fruit. Buy with PT of Rp1,400.

Top-line support from aggregators and continuous innovation. Aggressive competition among aggregators (i.e.

Gojek via GoPay and Grab via OVO) on food delivery business by giving heavy promotions (Fig. 7 & 8) should help PZZA’s

short-term performance, despite a higher risk on lower bargaining power for aggregators’ fees. One evidence is from

Pizza Hut Delivery (PHD) 1H19 sales growth of 24% YoY, which was mainly contributed by aggregators. We expect

aggregators to contribute 14%/15% of 2019/2020 PZZA revenues. We also believe that PZZA’s counter intuitive strategy

by deploying rapid product and marketing innovations (Fig. 8) in weak quarters (1st and 3rd) will continue to support sales,

given PZZA’s strong brand equity.

Expecting margin expansion from new factories. PZZA has started the construction of new factories for frozen dough

balls, sausage, and pasta in early Aug’19 and will start their operation by the end of 1Q20. The new sausage production



facility will improve PZZA’s GPM, as the Company is currently purchasing sausage from third-parties, while the new frozen

dough ball facility will help PZZA’s future expansion strategy. We estimate PZZA’s GPM to improve by 0.1 ppt in 2020.

Cost reduction from franchise fee. PZZA has already opened 41 new stores in 8M19, which is 64% of its target for this

year. We expect PZZA to complete 175 store opening agreements with Yum! this year, which will reduce PZZA’s franchise

fee. We estimate this year’s blended franchise fee will fall from 6.2% in 2018 to 6% in 2019F. Note that PZZA will negotiate

with Yum! next October regarding PZZA’s future franchise fee and store expansion.

Transfer of coverage: Maintain Buy with PT of Rp1,400. We revise up our 2019 earnings by 1% on the back of reduced

franchise fee and sales boost from aggregators, while also adding Pizza Hut Express (PHE) assumptions to our model. Our

PT of Rp1,400 implies 18x 2020F P/E, similarly valued with Shakey Pizza Philippines (PZZA’s head-to-head peer

comparison) despite PZZA’s stronger brand equity and higher market share. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F EBITDA 326 379 417 487 532 Net Profit 141 173 201 237 264 Fully-diluted EPS 47 57 66 79 87 Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) 8.4 22.5 15.8 18.3 11.3 P/E Ratio (x) 23.1 18.9 16.3 13.8 12.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.1 8.1 8.1 6.9 6.2 P/B Ratio (x) 8.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 Dividend Yield (%) 9.9 0.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 ROAE (%) 39.9 21.9 15.5 16.1 15.7 Source: Company (2017-2018), Mandiri Sekuritas (2019-2021) EARNINGS CHANGES

Rp bn Previous New %changes

2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

Net Sales 3,922 4,478 5,068 4,008 4,523 5,117 2% 1% 1%

Gross Profit 2,597 2,959 3,344 2,688 3,037 3,434 3% 3% 3%

Operating Income 233 272 299 229 279 308 -2% 3% 3%

EBITDA 429 489 536 417 487 532 -3% -1% -1%

Pretax Profit 265 318 351 267 316 352 1% -1% 0%

Net Income 199 239 264 201 237 264 1% -1% 0%

Margin Gross margin 66.4% 66.2% 66.1% 67.1% 67.2% 67.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0%

EBIT margin 6.4% 6.3% 6.4% 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% -0.7% -0.1% -0.4%

EBITDA margin 11.4% 11.3% 11.2% 10.4% 10.8% 10.4% -1.0% -0.5% -0.8%

Net margin 5.1% 5.3% 5.6% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4%

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates DCF-BASED TARGET PRICE VALUATION DCF Valuation 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenue

4,008 4,523 5,117 5,736 6,381 7,068 7,801

Operating profit 258 312 345 365 387 385 389

Income tax (67) (79) (88) (95) (101) (102) (104)

Depreciation 159 175 188 201 216 230 242

Change in working capital

(89) (19) (28) (32) (34) (42) (44)

Capital expenditure (490) (344) (273) (282) (290) (297) (279)

Free cash flow to firm (228) 45 143 158 177 173 204

PV of FCF (228) 41 118 118 120 106 113

PV 2H19F to 2025F 615 Risk free 6.5%

PV 2025-43F 1,992 ERP 5.0%

PV of terminal value 1,771 Beta 1

Sum of PV 4,379

DER 8.7%



DCF Valuation 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Debt 136 Tax rate 25.0%

Cash 26 CoE 11.5%

Equity value 4,268 CoD 7.5%

No. of shares (m) 3,022 WACC 10.3%

Equity per share (Rp/sh) 1,400 LT growth 4.0% Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Riyanto Hartanto (+6221 5296 9488) [email protected]

Lakshmi Rowter (+6221 5296 9549) [email protected] Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Plain Vanilla No More (RALS; Rp1,195; Buy; TP: Rp1,600)

RALS’ continuous and proven transformations – starting with Ramayana Prime and currently Lifestyle Concept – are the

key to ROIC improvement amidst doubtful consumption state in 2020. We think these efforts are undervalued as the

market still addresses RALS as a plain vanilla mass-market retailer. Re-initiate with a Buy.

Lifestyle transformation to cushion weak consumption outlook. Modest income generation in 2020 would require

RALS to diversify its revenue source from a traditional store into a lifestyle concept. RALS would benefit from: 1) reduced

rental expense for the same sales value for RALS located at JIL’s properties; 2) higher rental income generation from the

forgone commercial space to prominent retail tenants. For both schemes, RALS’ department stores are expected to enjoy

higher organic foot traffic and higher sales/sqm from reduced commercial space. With limited investment for the

turnaround (c.Rp5bn/store for façade capex), we expect EBIT-ROIC to further rise, reaching 70%/75% in 2019/2020 (from

37-70% in 2017-19). Read our scenario analysis on the scheme on Page 5.

ROIC turnaround as key catalyst for multiple re-rating. We project 6% 2019-2021 EBIT CAGR, driven by a modest SSSG

recovery and optimized fixed cost; our projection also implies neutral EBIT for RALS’ supermarket business. As RALS is

trading at the same valuation multiples as it did in 2015 (-21% YoY EBIT drop – RALS’s weakest performance of late), we

think that the market still merely values RALS on the back of weak macroeconomic landscape: lack – or the inefficiency –

of social assistance and weak commodity exports. Whereas in fact: 1) the supermarket business is no longer loss-making

post-split up from SPAR; 2) over-space issue is being addressed using its lifestyle concept; 3) higher space allocation for

consignment, where LPPF’s lower threat results in RALS’ ability to raise consignment margin gradually since 2016; 4)

improving cash conversion cycle from better bargaining power to outright suppliers.

Buy with Rp1,600 PT. We re-initiate coverage on RALS with a Buy rating and Rp1,600 PT, implying 16x avg.2020/2021

P/E. The stock currently trades at 12.2x 2020 P/E, 2 std deviation below its 5Y mean. RALS also provides c.4% dividend

yield, considerably higher than the market average of 2%. RALS is our top pick for the Retail sector. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F EBITDA 540 783 907 940 1,000 Net Profit 407 587 634 697 738 Fully-diluted EPS 57 83 89 98 104 Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) (0.5) 44.4 7.9 10.0 5.9 P/E Ratio (x) 20.9 14.4 13.4 12.2 11.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.3 8.3 6.8 6.3 5.6 P/B Ratio (x) 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 3.2 4.2 4.9 5.3 ROAE (%) 11.9 16.0 16.0 16.4 16.3 Source: Company (2017-2018), Mandiri Sekuritas (2019-2021)



RALS DCF VALUATION DCF Valuation 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Revenue 8,618 8,982 9,470 10,099 10,751 11,425 Operating profit 648 671 716 784 854 925 Income tax (124) (140) (148) (164) (179) (193) Depreciation 259 269 284 303 323 343 Change in working capital: 58 5 6 7 8 8 Capital expenditure (169) (218) (290) (397) (553) (783) Free cash flow to firm 672 587 567 534 452 301 PV of FCF 672 587 519 447 347 211

PV 2021-2024 1,525 WACC CalculationPV 2025-2029 1,651 Beta 1.00 PV of terminal value 5,146 Risk Free rate 6.8%Sum of PV 8,322 Equity risk premium 5.0%Debt - Cost of equity 11.8%Cash 2,731 Cost of debt 11.0%Minority interest Income tax 20.0%Equity of subsidiary - Cost of debt after tax 8.8%Equity value 11,053 WACC 0.0%No. of shares (m) 7,096 LT growth 3.0%Equity per share (Rp/sh) 1,600

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates, Bloomberg Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]

Lakshmi Rowter (+6221 5296 9549) [email protected]

Riyanto Hartanto (+6221 5296 9488) [email protected]

Market Recap September 26th 2019; JCI 6,230.33 Points +83.93 pts (+1.37%); Valued $475mn; Mkt Cap $483bn; USD/IDR 14,179

TOP TURNOVER: BBCA TLKM BBRI ASII BMRI GGRM BBNI BBTN PGAS HMSP WSKT MDKA BTPS UNTR TBIG (35%)

ADVANCING SECTOR: telco+4.9%; construction+2.2%; property+2%; financial+1.8%; auto+1.2%; consumer+0.9%;

mining+0.2%

DECLINING SECTOR: plantation & cement-0.3%

Indo equities extended the rebound, with the JCI rising 1.4% at 6230 level. The share price of WSKT surged sharply among

SOE contractors by 6.1% to 1660 level in double avg five-week vol after news report that the divestment of two

unidentified toll roads should be completed by end of this month. While, the share price of BBTN plunged sharply in

afternoon session by 4.5% to later recover and ended down 1.8% at 2160 level in 2.3x avg five-week vol amid poor

guidance for 2H19. The share price of PGAS also dropped by 3.1% to 2160 level in 0.8x avg five-week vol as it plans to seek

resolution dispute to International Court of Arbitration over gas supply from Kepodang field. Gas supply to Indonesia

Power from the said field was terminated by Petronas Carigali Muriah Ltd. on Sept 23rd where PGAS has a 20% controlling

stake thru affiliate Saka Energi Muriah Ltd. The termination could result in PGAS losing $17.3BN in net income. Moreover,

the share price of TBLA ended flat at 900 level in 0.5x avg five-week vol on falling rubber prices in Asia, with the most-

active contract in Tokyo dropping to lowest in more than two weeks, as investors remained concerned about China’s

economy and the progress of trade talks with the US. RSS rubber fir March on Tocom fell 0.3% to 166.30 yen/kg; while RSS

rubber for Jan on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.9% to 11645 yuan/ton. Market turnover (excluding $5.7MN TBIG;

$5.2MN APIC; $5.2MN LPKR; $4.1MN NASA; $3.9MN3.9MN DILD crossing) was better at $475MN. Foreign participants at

35% came up better buyer for 4%. Gainers beat losers by 3 to 2.

MARKET



So far this week, the JCI fell 0.6%. This quarter, it fell 2.6%, heading for the biggest decline since 2Q18. This month, it fell

2.2%. This year, it was little changed, heading for the worst year since 2018. It advanced 5.4% in the past 52 weeks. The

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index lost 4.3% in the same period. It is now 6.7% below its 52-week high on April 18, 2019 and 10.1

percent above its low on Oct 25, 2018. It is down 0.8% in the past five days and fell 0.4% in the past 30 days. It is trading at

a PER of 19.4x on a trailing basis and 14.9x estimated earnings of its members for the coming year. Its dividend yield is

2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis. Its members have a total market capitalization of IDR7.08 quadrillion. The 30-day price

volatility rose to 9.70% compared with 9.68% in the previous session and the average of 11.77% over the past month. The

IDR weakened against the USD from 14153 to 14179. The benchmark 10-year bond rose and the yield fell 1.7bps to

7.305%. Bank Indonesia sees continued inflows into its markets given attractive bond yields and fundamentals, according

to Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti. The central bank added a total IDR1.55TN of liquidity into the market

through 7-day and 3-mo. repos in an auction on Sept 25th. Global funds bought a net $90.6MN in Indonesian bonds on

Sept 24th; sold a net $54.5MN in country’s equities on Sept 25th, the 10th day of outflows. Sales Team +6221 527 5375

Government prepared Reserved Fund Rp 10 tn in state budget 2020 Government prepares higher allocation of reserve fund at Rp 10 tn in state budget 2020 (vs Rp 8 tn in 2019). The fund would

be used to anticipate changing nomenclature of ministry/institution for 2019-2024 period, especially regarding establishment

of new ministries. Furthermore, this fund could also be utilized as a fiscal buffer whether global development brought

negative effects to the state budget’s assumption. (Bisnis Indonesia) FLPP disbursement reached Rp5.5tn until September 17 Throughout Jan-19 until 17 Sep-19, the Ministry of PUPR has disbursed Rp5.6tn FLPP loans to 57k housing units, equivalent to

78.5% of FY19 target of Rp7.1tn for 68k housing units. (Investor Daily) Japro estimates LRT phase II will cost Rp7.0tn*

Deputy project director of LRT Jakarta, Wilman Sidjabat said the company is now doing a feasibility study and basic design.

There will be two phases, Kelapa Gading to Jakaeta International Stadium (JIS) Sunter (8km) and Manggarai to Velodrome

(6km) with estimated investment of Rp7.0tn. The ground breaking will be held in mid-2020. Loan growth slowing down in Aug-19 The OJK states that loan growth in Aug-19 stood at +8.6%yoy, a bit slower compared to +9.6%yoy recorded in Jul-19. It claims

that loan growth is still supported by investment loans which increased +12.7%yoy. Meanwhile, deposit growth increased

+7.6%yoy in Aug-19, supported by time deposits growth of +7.9%yoy. (Bisnis Indonesia) Agung Podomoro Land (APLN) obtains USD 127mn lifeline The company has obtained debt funding from Credit Opportunities II to help finance bond repayment, one totaling IDR

550bn which is due this month, as well as recall another due 2020. The company is also planning a rights issue. (Bloomberg) Bank BRI (BBRI) and Traveloka launches Paylater Card The co-branding partnership is aimed to increase BBRI’s customer base and market penetration in the millennial segment. The

Paylater Card can be used within the Traveloka app and as well as for online and offline international transactions as it is

connected to Visa’s network. The president of Traveloka Group Operation, Henry Hendrawan claims that the application and

verification process take about a maximum one day. He targets to grab 5mn Paylater Card users by 2025. Furthermore, BBRI

will launch a virtual credit card in 2Q20, to be integrated with Brimo. (Bisnis Indonesia)

FROM THE PRESS



Bank BRI (BBRI) issues bonds amounting to Rp5tn This is part of the shelf registering bonds issuance III totaling to Rp20tn. The bonds consist of three series, whereby series A for

370days, series B for 3years, and series C for 5years. The funds will be used for loans expansion. (Investor Daily) Bank BRI (BBRI) owns 90% stake in BRINS BBRI has officially acquired 90% stake in PT Asuransi Bringin Sejahtera Artamakmur (BRINS) for Rp1.04tn, from Dana Pensiun

BRI. (Investor Daily) IndiHome signed MoU with RedDoorz Telkom’s IndiHome has signed MoU with RedDoorz, start-up property, to provide IndiHome services and LAN infrastructure in

all RedDoorz partners and affiliated hotels. To note, RedDoorz exists in more than 100 cities in Indonesia. (Indotelko) Telkomsel leaves door open for Huawei 5G Telkomsel, largest Indonesian phone operator, will wait to see how the spat between US officials and Huawei Technologies Co

ends picking suppliers for 5G wireless equipment. To note, Huawei has been one of the Indonesian carrier’s key equipment

suppliers. (Business Times) XL Axiata (EXCL) & Indosat (ISAT) will leave tower business XL Axiata & Indosat will leave tower business and put more focus on their core business. To note, XL Axiata consider to sell

4,500 towers. These towers used to be strategic towers when the company adopted centralization model. Meanwhile, Indosat

also has long been reported to sell 3,000 towers. The tower sale is the asset monetization for both companies. (Bisnis

Indonesia) XL Axiata (EXCL) claimed to have 49mn of internet users XL Axiata claimed to have 49mn internet users out of 56.6 total subscribers, or as much as 88% of internet penetration.

Company’s investment in network infrastructure proved to be successful in order to increase internet users. To note, 4G LTE

network is available in more than 409 cities across Indonesia. (CNN Indonesia)



Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

Indices Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%) Currency Last Chg (%) YTD

Chg (%) Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

JCI 6,230.0 +1.4 +0.6 Rp/US$ 14,162 +0.09 +1.8 Oil spot (US$/bl) 56.39 -0.2 +24.2

Dow Jones 26,891.1 -0.3 +15.3 US$/EUR 1.094 +0.01 +4.8 Nickel spot (US$/mt) 17,340 -0.8 +63.5

Nikkei 22,048.0 +0.1 +10.2 YEN/US$ 107.62 -0.14 +1.9 Gold spot (US$/oz) 1,505 +0.1 +17.3

Hang Seng 26,041.9 +0.4 +0.8 SGD/US$ 1.381 +0.14 -1.3 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 16,300 -1.4 -16.3

STI 3,125.8 -0.0 +1.9 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 2,169 +1.0 +2.3

Ishares indo 24.7 +0.7 -0.6 Coal (US$/ton) 65.2 -0.4 -36.2

Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 147.5 -0.4 -0.7

Foreign Fund Flows (US$mn)

Last Chg YTD Chg

Gov. Bond Yield Last Chg

(bps)

YTD Chg

(bps)

Soybean oil (US$/100gallons) 29.10 -1.0 +5.6

Equity Flow +12.4 +3,685 5Yr 6,739.00 -900 +673,109 Baltic Dry Index 2,053.0 +0.0 +61.5

Bonds Flow +0.0 +0 10Yr 7,322.00 -100 +731,39

8



Equity Valuation Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020

MANSEK universe 6,230 6,650 6.7 4,591,389 270,090 289,920 16.9 15.8 2.4 2.3 13.4 12.9 7.7% 7.0% 2.6% 2.7%

Financials 1,621,492 104,600 116,508 15.5 13.9 2.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 13.3% 11.4% 2.2% 2.5%

BBCA Neutral 30,300 26,500 (12.5) 747,047 29,483 32,062 25.3 23.3 4.3 3.8 N.A. N.A. 14.0% 8.7% 1.1% 1.2%

BBNI Neutral 7,550 9,000 19.2 140,797 16,642 18,879 8.5 7.5 1.2 1.1 N.A. N.A. 10.8% 13.4% 4.3% 5.3%

BBRI Buy 4,210 5,000 18.8 519,087 36,551 41,656 14.2 12.5 2.6 2.4 N.A. N.A. 13.0% 14.0% 3.1% 3.5%

BBTN Buy 2,160 2,900 34.3 22,874 2,614 3,901 8.8 5.9 0.9 0.8 N.A. N.A. -6.9% 49.2% 2.5% 2.5%

BDMN Neutral 4,680 4,900 4.7 45,740 5,849 4,698 7.7 9.5 1.0 1.0 N.A. N.A. 49.1% -19.7% 3.0% 4.5%

BJBR Neutral 1,590 1,770 11.3 15,990 1,444 1,838 11.1 8.7 1.3 1.3 N.A. N.A. -8.8% 27.4% 5.6% 5.0%

BJTM Neutral 645 670 3.9 9,661 1,253 1,305 7.7 7.4 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. -0.6% 4.2% 7.1% 7.1%

BNGA Neutral 1,010 1,350 33.7 25,383 3,946 4,261 6.4 6.0 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 13.3% 8.0% 2.7% 3.1%

BNLI Neutral 1,120 465 (58.5) 31,408 1,081 1,409 29.0 22.3 1.4 1.3 N.A. N.A. 69.0% 30.3% 0.0% 0.0%

PNBN Buy 1,300 1,550 19.2 31,314 2,990 3,318 10.5 9.4 0.8 0.8 N.A. N.A. -3.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BTPS Buy 3,120 3,150 1.0 24,036 1,307 1,648 18.4 14.6 4.5 3.6 N.A. N.A. 35.4% 26.1% 0.0% 1.1%

BFIN Buy 545 900 65.1 8,156 1,441 1,532 5.7 5.3 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. -1.9% 6.4% 5.4% 5.3%

Construction & materials 252,576 14,482 17,313 17.4 14.6 1.8 1.6 10.7 10.1 -6.7% 19.5% 1.5% 1.8%

INTP Buy 18,925 23,500 24.2 69,667 1,868 2,478 37.3 28.1 2.8 2.6 19.5 15.4 65.5% 32.7% 0.6% 0.9%

SMGR Buy 12,250 16,100 31.4 72,661 2,253 3,708 32.3 19.6 2.3 2.1 12.0 9.9 -26.8% 64.6% 1.1% 1.7%

ADHI Buy 1,345 2,035 51.3 4,789 721 672 6.6 7.1 0.7 0.6 5.4 5.5 11.9% -6.8% 2.7% 3.0%

PTPP Buy 1,735 3,085 77.8 10,757 1,731 2,088 6.2 5.2 0.8 0.7 4.5 4.1 15.3% 20.6% 4.2% 4.8%

WIKA Buy 1,985 2,885 45.3 17,786 2,101 2,002 8.5 8.9 1.1 1.0 5.7 5.3 21.4% -4.7% 2.4% 2.3%

WSKT Buy 1,660 2,280 37.3 22,212 2,699 2,997 8.2 7.4 1.1 1.0 11.5 11.8 -31.9% 11.1% 2.4% 2.7%

WTON Buy 478 700 46.4 4,166 525 608 7.9 6.9 1.2 1.1 4.4 3.8 8.0% 15.7% 3.5% 3.8%

WSBP Buy 334 420 25.7 8,805 1,002 1,077 8.8 8.2 1.1 1.0 6.8 5.9 -9.2% 7.4% 6.3% 5.7%

JSMR Buy 5,750 5,600 (2.6) 41,733 1,583 1,683 26.4 24.8 2.4 2.2 14.0 15.4 -15.9% 6.3% 0.9% 0.8%

Consumer staples 1,086,626 46,338 49,695 23.4 21.9 5.9 5.4 15.2 14.2 5.3% 7.2% 3.0% 3.0%

ICBP Buy 12,000 12,350 2.9 139,943 5,042 5,414 27.8 25.8 5.8 5.2 16.4 15.9 10.2% 7.4% 1.7% 1.9%

INDF Buy 7,725 9,750 26.2 67,825 4,610 4,929 14.7 13.8 1.9 1.8 8.6 8.1 10.7% 6.9% 3.9% 4.3%

MYOR Neutral 2,280 2,850 25.0 50,979 1,864 2,152 27.3 23.7 5.3 4.6 14.4 12.7 8.6% 15.5% 1.3% 1.4%

UNVR Neutral 46,750 48,200 3.1 356,703 7,361 7,969 48.5 44.8 61.2 55.4 33.5 30.8 -19.2% 8.3% 2.6% 2.1%

GGRM Buy 54,025 99,000 83.2 103,949 9,462 10,433 11.0 10.0 2.0 1.8 7.5 6.7 21.4% 10.3% 2.8% 2.8%

HMSP Buy 2,330 3,500 50.2 271,021 14,702 15,230 18.4 17.8 7.4 7.2 13.8 13.3 8.6% 3.6% 4.9% 5.3%

KLBF Buy 1,670 1,950 16.8 78,281 2,557 2,742 30.6 28.6 4.9 4.5 19.5 18.1 4.1% 7.2% 1.6% 1.7%

SIDO Buy 1,195 1,050 (12.1) 17,925 739 827 24.2 21.7 5.4 4.8 17.6 15.6 11.4% 11.9% 3.3% 3.6%

Healthcare 60,462 971 1,126 62.3 53.7 4.9 4.3 21.7 18.5 28.7% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0%

MIKA Buy 2,650 2,950 11.3 38,559 727 805 53.0 47.9 9.3 7.2 33.2 29.6 18.5% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0%

SILO Buy 7,075 7,150 1.1 11,497 21 44 536.3 259.1 1.8 1.8 12.0 9.8 33.1% 107.0% 0.0% 0.0%

HEAL Buy 3,500 5,000 42.9 10,406 222 277 46.9 37.5 5.2 4.6 16.1 13.3 78.5% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Consumer discretionary 374,911 29,827 30,238 12.6 12.4 2.0 1.8 8.8 8.9 5.8% 1.4% 3.4% 3.6%

ACES Neutral 1,770 1,800 1.7 30,356 1,110 1,183 27.3 25.7 6.3 5.5 22.2 20.6 15.1% 6.5% 1.6% 1.8%

LPPF Buy 3,060 3,400 11.1 8,929 1,702 1,676 5.2 5.3 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.6 55.1% -1.5% 6.1% 13.3%

MAPI Buy 1,025 1,300 26.8 17,015 1,044 1,293 16.3 13.2 2.7 2.3 6.9 5.7 41.9% 23.8% 0.6% 0.9%

MPPA Sell 173 250 44.5 930 -335 -462 -2.8 -2.0 0.5 0.7 15.4 39.3 -20.3% -37.9% -9.0% -

10.8%

RALS Buy 1,195 1,600 33.9 8,480 634 697 13.4 12.2 2.1 1.9 6.8 6.3 7.9% 10.0% 4.2% 4.9%

ASII Buy 6,700 8,200 22.4 271,240 21,698 21,514 12.5 12.6 1.8 1.7 9.3 9.8 0.1% -0.9% 3.6% 3.6%

SCMA Buy 1,155 1,600 38.5 17,018 1,443 1,561 11.8 10.9 3.3 3.1 8.1 7.3 -3.6% 8.2% 5.9% 6.4%

MNCN Buy 1,245 1,800 44.6 15,443 2,040 2,214 7.6 7.0 1.4 1.2 5.4 4.8 34.2% 8.5% 2.0% 2.2%

MSIN Buy 430 650 51.2 2,237 291 325 7.7 6.9 1.6 1.4 5.2 4.4 38.2% 11.4% 6.5% 7.3%

PZZA Buy 1,080 1,400 29.6 3,264 201 237 16.3 13.8 2.4 2.1 8.1 6.9 15.8% 18.3% 1.1% 1.2%

Commodities 308,017 31,020 29,990 9.9 10.3 1.2 1.1 4.5 4.3 -7.6% -4.0% 3.8% 3.5%

AALI Buy 10,750 14,200 32.1 20,691 1,817 1,968 11.4 10.5 1.0 1.0 4.4 3.6 16.6% 8.3% 3.0% 3.5%

LSIP Buy 1,195 1,450 21.3 8,153 650 665 12.5 12.3 0.9 0.9 4.5 4.2 11.4% 2.3% 2.9% 3.2%



Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020

SSMS Neutral 945 1,300 37.6 9,001 1,158 1,263 7.8 7.1 1.6 1.4 4.9 4.2 27.0% 9.1% 3.0% 3.9%

BWPT Neutral 131 195 48.9 4,130 -67 -189 -61.2 -21.8 0.7 0.7 7.3 6.4 70.0% -180.3% 0.0% 0.0%

UNTR Buy 20,850 31,200 49.6 77,773 10,892 10,254 7.1 7.6 1.3 1.1 3.6 3.7 -2.1% -5.9% 4.2% 4.0%

ADRO* Neutral 1,285 1,300 1.2 41,102 380 313 7.6 9.4 0.8 0.7 3.4 3.5 -9.1% -17.6% 5.3% 3.9%

HRUM* Neutral 1,350 1,500 11.1 3,465 22 17 10.9 14.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 -29.7% -25.1% 5.1% 3.7%

INDY* Neutral 1,340 1,500 11.9 6,982 46 50 10.7 9.9 0.5 0.5 2.3 2.0 -42.8% 10.3% 2.3% 2.5%

ITMG* Neutral 12,800 17,500 36.7 14,036 150 127 6.6 7.9 1.1 1.1 2.3 2.7 -42.2% -15.2% 12.9% 10.8%

PTBA Neutral 2,300 3,000 30.4 26,502 3,957 3,476 6.3 7.6 1.5 1.4 4.6 4.6 -23.9% -16.4% 7.5% 6.6%

ANTM Buy 1,015 1,100 8.4 24,391 924 1,006 26.4 24.2 1.2 1.2 11.9 11.1 5.7% 8.9% 1.3% 1.4%

INCO* Buy 3,680 4,000 8.7 36,566 54 111 47.7 23.5 1.3 1.3 10.4 7.7 -11.0% 106.7% 0.6% 1.3%

TINS Buy 1,030 2,200 113.6 7,671 1,262 1,492 6.1 5.1 1.0 0.9 3.7 3.2 137.4% 18.3% 5.8% 6.8%

MDKA* Buy 6,450 8,000 24.0 27,555 80 99 24.0 20.3 3.9 3.4 11.6 10.2 49.5% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Property & Industrial Estate

144,813 10,400 9,969 13.2 14.5 1.2 1.1 10.9 11.1 20.6% -9.0% 1.2% 1.2%

ASRI Neutral 300 310 3.3 5,895 663 468 8.9 12.6 0.6 0.6 10.2 12.5 -31.7% -29.4% 0.7% 0.7%

BSDE Buy 1,390 1,650 18.7 26,753 2,441 2,086 11.0 12.8 0.9 0.9 10.7 9.8 88.6% -14.5% 0.0% 0.0%

CTRA Buy 1,080 1,550 43.5 20,045 965 1,128 20.8 17.8 1.3 1.2 13.1 12.0 -18.3% 17.0% 0.9% 0.8%

JRPT Buy 660 1,050 59.1 9,075 1,010 949 9.0 9.6 1.3 1.2 7.9 8.3 -2.3% -6.0% 4.5% 2.5%

PWON Buy 660 800 21.2 31,785 2,523 2,532 12.6 12.6 2.1 1.9 9.6 9.3 -0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9%

SMRA Neutral 1,220 1,330 9.0 17,601 356 550 49.4 32.0 2.4 2.3 15.3 13.2 -20.6% 54.4% 0.4% 0.4%

LPKR Buy 240 360 50.0 16,942 1,316 861 9.1 19.7 0.5 0.5 9.6 13.7 9.4% -54.0% 0.4% 0.4%

DMAS Buy 292 390 33.6 14,074 675 855 20.9 16.5 1.9 1.9 19.4 15.7 36.1% 26.6% 4.3% 5.5%

BEST Buy 274 400 46.0 2,643 452 540 5.8 4.9 0.6 0.5 5.9 5.6 7.0% 19.4% 3.4% 4.0%

Telco 557,418 21,434 22,888 26.0 24.4 3.7 3.6 7.6 7.2 33.9% 6.8% 3.0% 3.1%

EXCL Buy 3,500 3,600 2.9 37,408 188 497 198.7 75.2 2.0 2.0 6.5 6.0 N/M 164.1% 0.0% 0.0%

TLKM Neutral 4,360 4,500 3.2 431,911 19,217 20,207 22.5 21.4 4.2 4.0 7.7 7.3 6.6% 5.2% 3.3% 3.5%

ISAT Neutral 3,040 3,000 (1.3) 16,519 -2,159 -2,253 -7.7 -7.3 1.8 2.4 5.6 5.2 10.2% -4.4% 0.0% 0.0%

LINK Buy 4,000 5,500 37.5 11,647 1,126 1,132 10.5 10.4 2.2 2.0 5.0 4.6 42.7% 0.5% 4.8% 4.9%

TBIG Buy 6,050 5,700 (5.8) 26,263 795 938 33.0 28.0 7.2 6.2 12.5 11.9 16.8% 17.9% 1.9% 1.5%

TOWR Buy 660 1,000 51.5 33,670 2,266 2,367 14.9 14.2 3.7 3.3 8.3 8.0 2.5% 4.5% 3.6% 3.6%

Chemical 15,791 1,949 1,888 8.1 8.4 0.8 0.8 3.8 3.5 22.9% -3.2% 0.0% 0.0%

AGII Buy 620 700 12.9 1,901 105 136 18.2 14.0 0.6 0.6 6.8 6.2 5.0% 29.5% 0.0% 0.0%

BRPT* Neutral 995 2,640 165.4 13,890 129 125 7.5 7.9 0.9 0.8 3.5 3.3 25.4% -3.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Airlines 5,703 427 529 13.4 10.8 1.1 1.0 7.7 6.5 -2.9% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0%

GMFI* Neutral 202 275 36.0 5,703 30 38 13.4 10.8 1.1 1.0 7.7 6.5 -2.0% 26.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Oil and Gas 52,362 2,564 2,693 20.4 19.4 1.1 1.1 6.4 6.1 12.6% 5.0% 1.7% 1.9%

PGAS* Buy 2,160 3,150 45.8 52,362 180 192 20.4 19.4 1.1 1.1 6.4 6.1 13.7% 6.8% 1.7% 1.9%

Transportation 6,230 458 522 13.6 11.9 1.1 1.1 5.6 5.1 0.1% 14.0% 2.1% 2.3%

BIRD Buy 2,490 3,935 58.0 6,230 458 522 13.6 11.9 1.1 1.1 5.6 5.1 0.1% 14.0% 2.1% 2.3%

Poultry 104,989 5,620 6,561 18.7 16.0 3.1 2.7 11.1 9.7 -19.8% 16.7% 2.2% 1.8%

CPIN Neutral 5,200 4,950 (4.8) 85,270 3,624 4,219 23.5 20.2 4.0 3.5 14.6 12.6 -20.4% 16.4% 2.0% 1.6%

JPFA Buy 1,505 1,950 29.6 17,649 1,717 2,042 10.3 8.6 1.6 1.4 6.6 6.0 -20.8% 19.0% 3.4% 2.7%

MAIN Buy 925 1,150 24.3 2,071 280 300 7.4 6.9 0.9 0.8 5.1 4.6 -1.8% 7.1% 1.7% 1.8%

Note: - *) net profit in USD mn - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A means Not Applicable

Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Menara Mandiri Tower I, 25th floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54 – 55, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales)

Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer [email protected] +6221 5296 9415 Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9617 Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Chemical [email protected] +6221 5296 9682 Kresna Hutabarat Telecom, Media [email protected] +6221 5296 9542 Priscilla Thany Banking, Building Material [email protected] +6221 5296 9569 Lakshmi Rowter Healthcare, Consumer [email protected] +6221 5296 9549 Robin Sutanto Property [email protected] +6221 5296 9572 Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation [email protected] +6221 5296 9623 Silvony Gathrie Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9544 Riyanto Hartanto Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9488 Henry Tedja Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9434 Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9510 Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9406 Imanuel Reinaldo Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9651 Silva Halim Head Institutional Equities [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Michael Taarea Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities [email protected] +6221 526 9693 Boy Triyono Jakarta [email protected] +6221 526 5678 Dhanan Febrie Handita Bandung [email protected] +6222 426 5088 Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta [email protected] +62274 560 596 Widodo Solo [email protected] +62271 788 9290 Linawati Surabaya [email protected] +6231 535 7218 Ruwie Medan [email protected] +6261 8050 1825 Aidil Idham Palembang [email protected] +62711 319 900 Yuri Ariadi Pontianak [email protected] +62561 582 293

INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275374. ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

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