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Ashmore Group plc December 2018 www.ashmoregroup.com Investor presentation
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Page 1: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Ashmore Group plc

December 2018

www.ashmoregroup.com

Investor presentation

Page 2: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

2

A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets

EMERGING MARKETS FUNDAMENTALS UNDERPIN LONG-TERM GROWTH

• EM accounts for majority of world’s population (85%), FX reserves (66%), GDP (59%)

• High growth potential: social, political and economic convergence trends with DM

• Large, liquid, diverse investment universe

• Investors are underweight, typically <10% allocations vs 10%-20% EM weight in global indices ASHMORE CHARACTERISTICS

• AuM of USD 76.4bn diversified across

eight investment themes

• Strong investment performance, 94% of

AuM outperforming benchmarks over

three years

• High EBITDA margin (66%)

• Well-capitalised, liquid balance sheet with

£480m of excess capital

• Alignment of interests between clients,

employees and shareholders; employees

own ~46% of equity

• Progressive dividend policy, more than

£1bn returned to shareholders since IPO

LONG-STANDING INVESTMENT APPROACH DELIVERS OUTPERFORMANCE

• Deep understanding of EM underpins an active, value-based investment philosophy

• Inefficient markets mean volatile prices, but significant alpha opportunities

• Investment committees, not a star culture

• Performance track record extends over more than 25 years

DISTINCTIVE STRATEGY & EFFECTIVE BUSINESS MODEL

• Three phase strategy to capture value from long-term EM growth trends

• Remuneration philosophy aligns interests and provides flexibility through profit cycles

• Disciplined cost control delivers a high profit margin

• High conversion of operating profits to cash (109% since IPO)

• Scalable operating platform, 253 employees in 10 countries

• Network of local EM fund management platforms

• Strong balance sheet supports commercial and strategic initiatives, e.g. seed capital

DIVERSIFIED CLIENT BASE

• Global client base diversified by type and location

• Retail markets accessed through intermediaries

• 1/3rd of AuM sourced from EM-domiciled clients

Page 3: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Emerging Markets

Current views

Page 4: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Emerging nations had the ability and willingness to respond to the

market environment of 2013-2015

˗ significant macro adjustments

˗ very few defaults, demonstrating resilience

˗ leading to positive economic trends

• EM fundamentals are strong and in better shape than in 2013

˗ EM FX is more competitive

˗ Central banks raised rates and successfully targeted inflation

˗ External balances are stronger

˗ Reforms e.g. China, India, Indonesia and across Latin America

˗ Capital markets have continued to grow and to diversify

˗ GDP growth is accelerating YoY and versus developed markets

˗ Higher US interest rates are priced in to markets

˗ Elections typically increase volatility but provide opportunities

˗ Active managers have significant investment firepower

Emerging Markets fundamentals are positive…

4

Emerging Markets fundamentals continue to improve

2018 2013

GDP growth +5.1% +5.1%

Inflation +4.6% +5.5%

Current account (GBI-EM countries, % GDP) 0% -3%

Share of world GDP 59% 56%

LC bonds outstanding (US$trn) 21.1 12.3

- % of total EM bonds 87% 85%

Real LC yield 3% 1%

ED spread over US Treasuries 3.6% 2.8%

EMBI GD countries 67 57

GBI-EM GD countries 18 16

Page 5: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Profit-taking after strong Emerging Markets returns in 2016 & 2017

e.g. local currency bonds +26%, equities +53%

• Markets affected by Developed Markets events (e.g. Italian politics)

and strong USD, the drivers of which are likely to be temporary

˗ New Fed chair Powell establishing credibility

˗ Unfunded tax cut boosted GDP growth

˗ Protectionism / tariffs

˗ USD was weak vs EUR since end-2016

• Emerging Markets sentiment influenced by small number of countries

with particular issues e.g. Turkey, Argentina

• Valuations reset to end-2016 levels, immediately after US election

˗ e.g. local currency bonds real yield of ~3%, high in absolute terms,

relative to history and relative to DM sovereign bonds of equivalent

quality & duration

• Elections eg Brazil typically increase volatility but provide

opportunities

…so recent price moves creates attractive opportunities

5

Attractive local currency real yields

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Local curr

ency b

onds r

eal yie

ld (

%)

Page 6: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Asset classes: valuations

6

Equities

External debt

Index: 68 countries, 152 issuers, 663 bonds

Local currency

Index: 19 countries, 19 issuers, 219 bonds

Corporate debt

Index: 50 countries, 644 issuers, 1,416 bonds

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

EM vs DM growth premium (IMF, %, lhs) MSCI EM vs DM total return (Dec2010=100, rhs)

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Yie

ld (

%)

JPM GBI Global (lhs) JPM GBI-EM GD (lhs) Yield difference: GBI-EM vs GBI Global (rhs)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

CEMBI BD spread over UST, bps

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EMBI GD spread over UST, bps

Page 7: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Active management can exploit value created by

volatile prices in inefficient markets

• Significant alpha can be generated versus

passive (index) exposure

• Bond yields provide substantial reward for risk

taken, based on actual defaults

Volatility risk

7

EMBI yield and defaults

Strategy AlphaActive

returns

Passive

returns

History

(years)

Fixed Income 3.0% 11% 8%

External Debt (EMBI GD) 2.3% 12% 9% 24

Corporate Debt (CEMBI BD) 3.0% 10% 7% 16

Local Currency Bonds (GBI EM GD) 2.5% 10% 8% 15

Stocks 2.5% 7% 5%

Equities (MSCI EM) 3.8% 7% 4% 24

EM Small Cap (MXEFSC Index) 5.0% 9% 4% 24

Frontier Equities (MXFM Index) -1.3% 5% 6% 16

12m alpha when entering markets during +10pts VIX spikes

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Yield net of defaults (bps)

Estimated loss from default in EMBI GD (bps)

Page 8: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Active versus passive investing in Emerging Markets

8

• EM fixed income and equity markets are inefficient

Benchmark indices are unrepresentative of the

investment opportunity

Active management is critical

• Structural developments, e.g. removal of capital

controls, will increase index representation over the

long term

• Based on JP Morgan data, EM ETFs represent:

11% of fixed income mutual funds; only 2% of index

market cap and 0.2% of total universe

26% of equity mutual funds; only 6% of index

market cap and 1.1% of total universe

Large investment universe, low index representation

Source: BIS, JP Morgan, Bloomberg

Wide range of returns available (12m to June 2018)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Externalsovereign

Externalcorporate

Localsovereign

Localcorporate

Fixed income Equities

US

$ trilli

on

Mkt cap included in benchmark Mkt cap not included in benchmark

US$1.2trn

46%

US$2.0trn

23%

US$10.3trn

9%

US$10.9trn

2%

US$24.3trn

9%

US$28.9trn

19%

-39%

+11%

EMBI GD

index -1.6%

Page 9: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Ashmore Group plc

Page 10: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Consistent three-phase strategy to capitalise on Emerging

Markets growth trends

10

• Ashmore is recognised as an established specialist Emerging Markets manager,

and is therefore well positioned to capture investors’ rising allocations to the asset

classes

• Ashmore is diversifying its revenue mix to provide greater revenue stability

through the cycle. There is particular focus on growing intermediary, equity

and alternatives AuM

• Ashmore’s growth will be enhanced by accessing rapidly growing pools of

investable capital in Emerging Markets

1. Establish Emerging Markets asset class

2. Diversify developed world capital sources and themes

3. Mobilise Emerging Markets capital

• Investor allocations to Emerging Markets are increasing, and

Ashmore’s AuM grew 26% in FY2017/18 with record gross

and net subscriptions

• Ashmore continues to develop products and capabilities

within its eight investment themes. Retail AuM increased by

47% in FY2017/18 and represents 14% of total AuM

• 33% of Group AuM has been sourced from clients domiciled

in the Emerging Markets and AuM managed by local

platforms increased 26% in FY2017/18 to US$4.9 billion

Recent developments

Page 11: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Ashmore’s proven investment expertise, specialist focus and

scalable distribution model mean it is well-placed to exploit

the growth opportunities across Emerging Markets

• Huge structural growth opportunity as nations develop and

Emerging Markets increasingly viewed as mainstream asset

classes

• Diversification is important: not a single asset class. There is

a wide range of risk & return profiles and large investable

markets across fixed income, currencies, equities and illiquid

assets

• Institutional allocations are underweight and rising steadily

Typically low/mid single digit % allocation to Emerging

Markets

JP Morgan GBI-Agg Diversified index has 22% EM weight

GDP per capita (indexed 1980 = 100)

11

Strategy phase 1:

Establish Emerging Markets asset classes

Significant growth opportunity from higher allocations (%) 1

3.6

5.4

6.4

7.5

2.0

3.8 4.2

2005 2010 2015 2017

Equity Fixed income

n/a

(1) Ashmore, annual reports of representative European and US pension funds

collectively responsible for more than US$750 billion of assets

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018f

2020f

2022f

Emerging Markets Developed Markets

1980

EM = US$1,500

2017

EM = US$11,800

DM = US$49,100

Ashmore’s specialism, expertise, experience and

distribution model enable it to capture rising

investor allocations to Emerging Markets

Page 12: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

25%

22%

25%

10%

18%Americas

Asia Pacific

Europe ex UK

UK

Middle East & Africa

AuM development (USD bn)

Strategy phase 2:

Diversify assets under management

12

Data as at 30 Sep 2018

• Ashmore’s broad distribution capabilities deliver AuM

diversified by investment theme, client type and client

location

AuM by client type

AuM by client location

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

External debt Local currency Corporate debt Blended debt Equities Alternatives Multi-asset Overlay/liquidity

15%

8%

14%

29%

15%

4%

14%1%

Central bank

Sovereign wealth fund

Government

Pension plan

Corporate/financial institution

Fund/sub-adviser

Retail

Foundation/endowment

Ashmore’s immediate priorities are to grow AuM

(absolute and as proportion of Group) in equities,

alternatives and from retail clients

Page 13: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Strategy phase 3:

Mobilise Emerging Markets capital (local office network)

13

• Investable capital pools in Emerging Markets are growing 3x faster

than in Developed Markets (+11% CAGR over past decade)

• Ashmore’s local offices participate in this growth trend and provide

further diversification

• Business model and ownership structure tailored to each market

opportunity but with some common features

seek local employees/partners with cultural fit and alignment of

interests through equity

include independent investment committees and appropriate

distribution and middle office/support functions

benefit from the resources of a global firm, e.g. common IT and

provision of seed capital support, while providing competitive

advantages through local knowledge

make a positive and growing contribution to Group profits, with

significant operating leverage as AuM increase

• Ashmore’s global clients access the local investment management

capabilities with dedicated single-country mandates

Broad network of local asset management platforms

Local asset management platform

Distribution office

Ashmore Group, 30 Sep 2018 Local Global

AuM (USD billion) 5.1 71.3

Countries 7 4

Employees 121 179

Global asset management platform

Ashmore will continue to develop its network of local

businesses, and target larger EM institutions, to increase

proportion of AuM from EM-domiciled clients from 33% today 1. Local employees include 19 in Avenida project management

Page 14: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

14

Ashmore has a robust and flexible business model

Structural growth

opportunities

Distinctive business model

characteristics

Delivering value through

the cycle

Page 15: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Eight Emerging Markets investment themes, numerous

constantly evolving sub-themes

15

External Debt

(USD 15.5bn)

Local Currency

(USD 17.2bn)

Corporate Debt

(USD 10.6bn)

Equities

(USD 4.0bn)

Alternatives

(USD 1.7bn)

Overlay/

Liquidity

(USD 6.0bn)

Global Emerging

Markets

Sub-themes

• Broad

• Sovereign

• Sovereign,

investment grade

• Short duration

• Bonds

• Bonds (Broad)

• FX+

• Investment grade

• Broad

• High yield

• Investment grade

• Local currency

• Private Debt

• Short duration

• Global EM Equity

• Active Equity

• Global Small Cap

• Global Frontier

• Private Equity

• Healthcare

• Infrastructure

• Special Situations

• Distressed Debt

• Real Estate

• Overlay

• Hedging

• Cash Management

Blended Debt

(USD 20.4bn)

• Investment grade • Blended • Absolute return

Regional / Country

focused

Sub-themes

• Indonesia • Indonesia • Asia

• Latin America

• Africa

• India

• Indonesia

• Latin America

• Middle East

• Saudi Arabia

• Andean

• Middle East (GCC)

Multi-Asset

(USD 1.0bn)

• Global

Page 16: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• EMLIP launched in October 1992

Annualised net return +13.5%

Substantial outperformance versus

benchmark (EMBI +10.0% annualised) and

S&P (+9.8% annualised)

• EMLIP’s long-term track record delivered by:

Deep knowledge of diverse, inefficient

Emerging Markets asset classes

Specialist, active investment processes

Value-based philosophy and rigorous

credit/company analysis

Over 25 years of successful investing in Emerging Markets

16

Superior long-term performance

100

600

1,100

1,600

2,100

2,600

3,100

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Index 1

992=

100

EMLIP net EMBI GD S&P 500

Page 17: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Ashmore fixed income investment committee process

17

Market exposure: add vs reduce Long-term and tactical views

Global macro overview Risk call

Country / corporate updates

Country and corporate credit review Impact on credit risk, FX and interest rates ESG integration

Updated credit views

Theme relative value

Risks and opportunities across themes: External vs local currency Corporate vs sovereign

Theme allocation

Portfolio construction

Changes in target exposures (credits, FX, duration) across model portfolios

Revision of theme allocation, cash and leverage where appropriate

Changes to model portfolios

Instrument selection

Buy and sell decisions on specific assets

Investment decisions

Execution process

Timely execution (within 24 hours of IC meeting) with review in subsequent IC meeting

Execution

Investment

Committee

(IC)

Sub-committee

meetings

Trading / execution

• Local Currency

• External Debt

• Corporate Debt

• Blended Debt

• Multi-asset

• Long investment track

record: consistent process

since 1992

• Weekly meeting to

implement the investment

philosophy

• Six IC members

- Chairman

- Deputy Chairman

- Theme desk heads

- Head of research

- Head of multi-asset

• All fixed income investment

team members can

participate (31 in total)

• Collective responsibility, not

a ‘star culture’

• Significant involvement of

local office teams (21

investment professionals)

Page 18: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Delivering long-term investment performance for clients

18

% External debt Local currency Corporate debt Blended debt

2005 8.6 4.8 - 9.8

2006 7.3 4.9 - 4.5

2007 3.7 3.7 - 1.2

2008 (5.0) (11.3) (8.3) (7.6)

2009 4.1 12.0 18.2 12.3

2010 4.4 2.8 17.8 5.6

2011 (0.7) 1.9 (3.8) 3.3

2012 3.6 6.3 9.3 3.9

2013 0.6 (1.2) 1.2 (0.7)

2014 (6.5) 0.9 (6.7) (0.6)

2015 0.7 0.5 (4.5) 3.8

2016 10.2 4.0 10.4 8.5

2017 1.0 2.2 6.6 0.8

2018 YTD - 0.2 - 0.1

Investment theme alpha through cycles

Long-term investment performance

AuM-weighted Investment performance relative to benchmarks is

gross of fees, annualised for periods greater than one year, as at

30 June 2018

2018YTD is to 30 September

One year Three years Five years

73%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Exte

rna

l

Lo

cal

Corp

ora

te

Ble

nd

ed

Eq

uitie

s

Multi-

asse

t

Gro

up

94%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Exte

rna

l

Lo

cal

Corp

ora

te

Ble

nd

ed

Eq

uitie

s

Multi-

asse

t

Gro

up

89%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Exte

rna

l

Lo

cal

Corp

ora

te

Ble

nd

ed

Eq

uitie

s

Multi-

asse

t

Gro

up

Page 19: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Investment performance

19

1yr 3yr 5yr

30 September 2018 Ashmore Benchmark Ashmore Benchmark Ashmore Benchmark

External debt

Broad -2.6% -1.9% 9.5% 6.0% 6.3% 5.4%

Sovereign -2.4% -1.9% 7.5% 6.0% 6.1% 5.4%

Sovereign IG 0.0% -0.8% 5.9% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6%

Local currency

Bonds -7.2% -7.4% 6.9% 5.2% -0.6% -1.7%

Corporate debt

Broad -0.1% -0.9% 9.6% 5.4% 5.5% 4.8%

HY 1.3% -1.2% 11.2% 8.1% 5.1% 5.6%

IG -0.5% -0.7% 4.6% 3.7% 4.6% 4.2%

Blended debt

Blended -3.7% -3.4% 8.9% 5.2% 3.5% 2.0%

Equities

Global EM equities 0.0% -0.8% 19.1% 12.4% 5.1% 3.6%

Global EM small cap -5.0% -4.2% 11.2% 7.4% 4.0% 2.7%

Frontier markets -8.0% -7.7% 9.5% 5.3% 5.3% 2.9%

Page 20: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Comprehensive coverage of a diversified

client base

Global teams in London, New York and

Singapore hubs

Local distribution

Sales office in Tokyo

• Product management aligned with asset

classes

Sovereign fixed income

Corporate debt

Equities

• Long-term, direct relationships

• Scalable team and infrastructure

Global distribution team structure

Global distribution model

20

Institutional Intermediary Marketing Product

management

Total

Headcount 21 9 6 4 40

Increasing tenure of AuM

AuM managed in segregated accounts or white label products

As at December

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

<3yrs 3yrs-7yrs >7yrs

2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 21: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Strong growth in retail AuM sourced through intermediaries, consistent with

Ashmore’s diversification strategy

Total retail AuM of ~US$10bn increased 47% in FY2017/18

Strong net inflows of +US$3.7 billion

• Scalable mutual fund platforms

˗ 26 SICAV funds in Europe with US$12.1bn AuM

˗ 40-Act platform in US has eight funds with AuM of US$2.0bn

Strong growth in intermediary AuM

21

Strong retail AuM growth, now 14% of Group AuM

Diversified intermediary AuMUS Europe Asia

Intermediaries • Wirehouses

• Private banks

• RIAs

• Trusts

• Sub-advisers

• Private banks

• Platforms

• Wealth

managers

• Fund of funds

• Sub-advisers

• Private banks

• Wealth

managers

Product demand • Blended debt

• Specialist equities

• Short duration

• Short duration

• Blended debt

• Local currency

• Fixed duration

• Multi-asset

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2015 2016 2017 Jun 2018

% o

f G

roup A

uM

US

$ b

illio

n

Retail AuM (lhs) Retail AuM as % Group (rhs)

Americas36%

Asia Pacific17%

Europe (ex UK)25%

UK22%

Page 22: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Principal features:

salaries capped to minimise fixed costs

single profit-based VC pool, capped at 25% of pre-bonus profit

mandatory equity component with ability to increase equity

exposure by voluntarily commuting cash

further alignment through significant deferral: five-year cliff

vest, with ordinary dividend eligibility

Employee Benefit Trust (EBT) purchases shares to mitigate

dilution

• Average length of senior employee service in Global businesses

is 10 years

* Earnings before variable compensation, interest and tax

Variable compensation as % of EBVCIT*

18%

14%

18%19%

18%20% 20%

18.5%20%

21% 21.5%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Equity incentivisation (based on VC of £100)

Simple, distinctive and effective remuneration philosophy

delivering retention and alignment of interests

22

£30

£60

£40

£40

£60

0 50 100 150

Switch & match

Initial Cash

Restricted shares

Bonus and matchingshares fromcommuted cash

£100

£130

Strong link between performance and variable remuneration

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Revenues YoY Bonus pool YoY

Page 23: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Revenues driven by recurring diversified management

fee income, representing >90% of fee income

• Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 66% in

FY2017/18

High-quality revenues and increase in profitability

Business model delivers through market cycles

23

Figures stated on an adjusted basis, excluding FX translation and seed

capital-related items

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fe

es a

s %

tota

l fe

es

Net management fees (lhs) Performance fees (lhs) Adj EBITDA margin (rhs)

Page 24: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Business model converts operating profits to cash (110%

cumulative conversion since IPO)

• Cash balance has been broadly stable, average balance

of £375 million over past nine years

• Principal uses of cash flow are:

ordinary dividends to shareholders

share purchases to satisfy employee equity awards

taxation

seed capital investments

M&A

• Progressive dividend policy

since 2007, £1.1 billion returned to shareholders

through ordinary dividends

equivalent to 68% of attributable profits over the period

Progressive capital distribution via ordinary dividends

Strong cash generation

24

Consistent conservative balance sheet structure

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cash excluding consolidated funds (£m) Seed capital (market value, £m)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cum

ula

tive, £m

Attributable profit Dividends paid

Page 25: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Strong, liquid balance sheet benefits clients and shareholders

through the cycle

no debt

high-quality financial resources

liquid assets represent 79% of total balance sheet

capacity to invest in seed capital for future growth

confers strategic flexibility, e.g. to consider M&A

progressive dividend policy

Regulatory capital

• Ashmore is supervised on a consolidated basis under a P3

licence

the Group’s two principal FCA-regulated entities are both

limited licence BIPRU €50k firms

• Regulatory capital requirement is determined annually

through the ICAAP

Ashmore assesses how much regulatory capital it requires

Pillar 3 disclosures provide detailed information

Substantial financial resources

Balance sheet strength

25

Source: Pillar 3 disclosures and Group consolidated financial statements

Market risk

Credit risk

Operational risk

65.6 87.0 72.9 94.4 99.9 111.1 119.5

306.8

371.1 383.9400.9 406.4

448.3479.7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Pillar 2 requirement (£m) Excess capital (£m)

Page 26: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Active seeding supports Ashmore’s strategy through:

˗ Creating a marketable investment track record

˗ Establishing new distribution conduits

˗ Providing additional scale to an existing fund to enhance

its marketability

˗ Supporting initial development of local asset

management platforms

• Substantial balance sheet resources committed to seed

capital investments over past nine years:

˗ £640 million invested

˗ £455 million successfully recycled to date (71% of

invested cost)

˗ 14% of Group AuM (US$10 billion) in funds that have

been seeded, e.g. short duration strategies have

delivered significant AuM growth and represent 5% of

Group AuM

˗ £103 million contribution to profits before tax over past

nine years

Active seed capital programme creating value

26

Active management of seed capital investments

Short duration strategies

Jun

-09

Dec-0

9

Jun

-10

Dec-1

0

Jun

-11

Dec-1

1

Jun

-12

Dec-1

2

Jun

-13

Dec-1

3

Jun

-14

Dec-1

4

Jun

-15

Dec-1

5

Jun

-16

Dec-1

6

Jun

-17

Dec-1

7

Jun

-18

Seed capital outstanding Cumulative seed redeemed Cumulative seed invested

£640m

£455m

£228m

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18

Assets

under

managem

ent (U

S$m

)

USD

20m

USD

40m

USD

2m

USD

8.5m

USD

60m

Seed

investments:

US$60m

Successful

redemptions:

US$70.5m

Page 27: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• AuM +26% over the year to 30 June 2018

Record net flows +US$16.9 billion, investment

performance -US$1.4 billion

Q1’19 AuM +3% to US$76.4 billion; net inflows of

+US$1.9 billion and market performance of +US$0.3

billion

• Operating revenues +11% to £278.3 million

Net management fees +13% to £250.5 million driven by

diversified AuM growth

Performance fees of £21.9 million generated across a

range of investment themes

• Maintained focus on cost efficiency

• Adjusted EBITDA +14%, margin increased to 66%

• Strong cash generation

Operating cash flow of £210.1 million, equivalent to

114% of adjusted EBITDA

• Profit before tax -7%

Impacted by lower contribution from seed capital and FX

translation

Recent financial performance

27

FY2017/18

£m

FY2016/17

£m YoY %

AuM (US$bn) 73.9 58.7 26

Operating revenues 278.3 249.8 11

Adjusted operating costs (99.7) (94.2) 6

Adjusted EBITDA 183.6 161.1 14

- margin 66% 65% -

EBITDA 181.5 172.3 5

Seed capital gains 10.1 41.0 (75)

Profit before tax 191.3 206.2 (7)

Diluted EPS (p) 21.3 23.7 (10)

DPS (p) 16.65 16.65 -

Figures stated on an adjusted basis exclude FX translation and seed

capital-related items; see Appendix 1

Page 28: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Appendix

FY2017/18 financial results

Page 29: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Global distribution team delivering flows diversified by

investment theme, client type and client geography

• Strategic initiatives delivering strong AuM growth

Retail

Intermediary relationships established and strengthened

Net inflows of US$3.7 billion with demand for short

duration, blended debt and specialist equities, driven

principally by Europe and Asia

AuM +47% YoY, and now 14% of Group

Local platforms

AuM +26% YoY to US$4.9 billion, 7% of Group

Significant diversification benefits, through domestic

client base and differentiated asset classes

Alternatives

Acquired majority stake in Colombian real estate

manager in July 2018, with ~US$300 million AuM

Client flows and products

29

External debt

Local currency

Corporate debt

Blended debt

Equities

Multi-asset

Overlay/liquidity

Asia Pacific

Americas

UK

Europe (ex UK)

Middle East & Africa

Pension plans

Governments

Third-party intermediaries

Corporates/financial institutions

Sovereign wealth funds

Central banks

Fund/sub-advisersFoundations

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

Net flows (US$bn)

Growth in retail AuM

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2015 2016 2017 Jun 2018

% o

f G

roup A

uM

US

$ b

illio

n

Retail AuM (lhs) Retail AuM as % Group (rhs)

Page 30: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Net management fees +13%, driven by AuM growth

6% headwind from higher average GBP:USD rate

• Net management fee margin 49bps

3 bps lower YoY attributable to growth in large

segregated accounts

Retail AuM growth (+0.5bps) offset other effects

including competition

• Performance fees delivered across investment themes

˗ Estimated performance fees from August year-end

funds are not significant (August 2017: £1.4 million)

Higher net management fee income

Financial results

Revenues

30

FY2017/18

£m

FY2016/17

£m

YoY

%

Net management fees 250.5 221.6 13

Performance fees 21.9 28.3 (23)

Other revenue 4.1 2.7 52

FX: hedges 1.8 (2.8) nm

Operating revenues 278.3 249.8 11Figures stated on an adjusted basis, excluding FX translation and seed

capital-related items; see Appendix 1

221.6

250.5

60.3

3.0

17.7

3.0 13.7

FY2016/17 AuM growth Largemandates

Retail Other FX FY2017/18

Page 31: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Consistent operating model

˗ Ongoing focus on fixed operating costs

˗ Variable compensation provides strong alignment

of client/shareholder/employee interests through

the cycle

• Stable Group headcount

˗ Local employees increased 16% YoY, now 29% of

Group

• VC at 21.5% of EBVCIT (FY2016/17: 21%)

Non-VC operating costs reduced by 4%

Financial results

Operating costs

31

FY2017/18

£m

FY2016/17

£m YoY %

Fixed staff costs (24.2) (24.8) 2

Other operating costs (21.5) (22.5) 4

Depreciation & amortisation (5.0) (5.5) 9

Operating costs before VC (50.7) (52.8) 4

Variable compensation (48.6) (43.0) (13)

- adjustment for FX translation (0.4) 1.6 nm

Adjusted operating costs (99.7) (94.2) (6)Figures stated on an adjusted basis, excluding FX translation and seed

capital-related items; see Appendix 1

52.8 50.7

0.6 1.5

FY2016/17 Fixed staff costs Other operating costs FY2017/18

Page 32: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Adjusted profits reconciliation

32

Adjusted

FY2017/18

£m

Adjusted

FY2016/17

£m YoY %

Net revenue 276.3 257.6 7

FX translation 2.0 (7.8) nm

Operating revenues 278.3 249.8 11

Operating costs ex consolidated funds (94.3) (90.3) (4)

VC on FX translation (0.4) 1.6 nm

Adjusted operating costs (94.7) (88.7) (7)

Adjusted EBITDA 183.6 161.1 14

EBITDA margin 66% 65%

Depreciation and amortisation (5.0) (5.5) 9

Total adjusted operating costs (99.7) (94.2) (6)

Net finance income 4.6 2.6 77

Associates and joint ventures (0.4) 0.8 nm

Seed capital-related items 10.1 41.0 (75)

Foreign exchange translation net of VC (1.6) 6.2 nm

Profit before tax 191.3 206.2 (7)

Page 33: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Market value £228.3 million (30 June 2017: £210.2 million)

Undrawn commitments of £32.5 million

• Profit contribution of £10.1 million, of which £5.0 million realised

Investment return of £14.0 million

Mark-to-market FX loss of £3.9 million as Sterling

strengthened

• New investments of £65.0 million, with investments made in

alternatives and global equity products to support growth

initiatives

• Successful realisations of £55.8 million, from reaching product

scale in frontier equity strategies (SICAV and 40-Act) and local

mutual funds in Indonesia

˗ Frontier AuM US$0.2 billion (+33% YoY)

˗ Indonesia AUM US$1.6 billion (+52% YoY)

Financial results

Seed capital

33

Diversified across themes (% of market value)

Seed capital movement (£m)

210.2

228.3

65.0

8.9

55.8

30 June 2017 Investments Realisations Market movement 30 June 2018

3%4%4%

19%

30%

32%

8% External debt

Local currency

Corporate debt

Blended debt

Equities

Alternatives

Multi-asset

Page 34: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

• Sterling was stronger against the US dollar over the 12-month

period and compared to the prior financial year

Period-end rate moved from 1.2946 to 1.3200

Average rate 1.3464 vs 1.2766 in FY2016/17

• P&L FX effects in FY2017/18:

Translation of net management fees -£13.7 million

Translation of non-Sterling balance sheet items -£2.0 million

Net FX hedges +£1.8 million

Seed capital -£3.9 million

FX sensitivity:

• ~£8.0 million PBT for 5c movement in GBP:USD rate

£6.5 million for cash deposits (in ‘foreign exchange’)

£1.5 million for seed capital (in ‘finance income’)

Appendix 5

Foreign exchange

34

(1) Excludes consolidated funds. See Appendix for reconciliation to statutory

consolidated cash flow statement

Currency exposure of cash(1)

30 June 2018

£m

% 30 June 2017

£m

%

US dollar 317.0 74 241.6 57

Sterling 77.2 18 149.7 36

Other 32.6 8 28.8 7

Total 426.8 420.1

Currency exposure of seed capital

30 June 2018

£m

% 30 June 2017

£m

%

US dollar 203.9 89 188.3 90

Colombian peso 13.6 6 9.6 4

Other 10.8 5 12.3 6

Total 228.3 210.2

Page 35: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Appendix 2b

Management fee margins

35

Fixed income: 48bps

(FY2016/17: 50bps)

52 50

41

62

53

90

132

80

15

49 46

42

59

49

81

131

74

17

Group External debt Localcurrency

Corporatedebt

Blended debt Equities Alternatives Multi-asset Overlay

FY2016/17 FY2017/18

Page 36: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Source: Ashmore (un-audited), JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley

- Returns gross of fees, dividends reinvested.

- Annualised performance shown for periods greater than one year.

- Within each investment theme category, all relevant Ashmore Group managed funds globally that have a benchmark reference point have been included.

Benchmarks

External debt Broad JPM EMBI GD

External debt Sovereign JPM EMBI GD

External debt Sovereign IG JPM EMBI GD IG

Local currency Bonds JPM GBI-EM GD

Blended debt 50% EMBI GD, 25% GBI-EM GD. 25% ELMI+

Corporate debt Broad JPM CEMBI BD

Corporate debt HY JPM CEMBI BD NIG

Corporate debt IG JPM CEMBI BD IG

Global EM equities MSCI EM net

Global EM small cap MSCI EM Small Cap net

Frontier markets MSCI Frontier net

Disclosures

36

Page 18:

Page 19:

- Gross performance is shown, weighted by fund AuM, to provide a representative view to analysts and shareholders of Ashmore’s investment performance over relevant time periods

- Only funds at 30 June 2018 and with a performance benchmark are included, which specifically excludes funds in the alternatives and overlay/liquidity investment themes

- 83% of Group AuM at 31 December 2017 is in such funds with a one year track record; 74% with three years; and 55% with five years

- Reporting of investment performance to existing and prospective fund investors is specific to the fund and the investor’s circumstances and objectives and may, for example, include net

as well as gross performance

Page 37: Investor presentation December 2018 - Ashmore Group · Investor presentation. 2 A specialist active manager of Emerging Markets assets ... Diversify assets under management 12 Data

Disclaimer

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This document does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in Ashmore Group plc or any other invitation or inducement to engage in investment activities. Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document are forward-looking, which reflect the Company's current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements contained in this document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. The value of investments, and the income from them, may go down as well as up, and is not guaranteed. Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of overseas investments or investments denominated in different currencies to rise and fall. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document.

37


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