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May 2018 INVESTOR PRESENTATION TSX:WEF
Transcript

May 2018INVESTOR PRESENTATION

TSX:WEF

1

Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP

Financial Measures

All financial references are expressed in C$ unless otherwise noted.

This presentation contains statements and estimates that may constitute forward-looking statements under

the applicable securities laws. Readers are cautioned against placing undue reliance on forward-looking

statements. All statements herein, other than statements of historical fact, may be forward-looking

statements and can be identified by the use of words such as “projected”, “plan”, “should”, “expect”, “will”,

“target”, “expected”, “poised”, “likely” and similar references to future periods.

Forward-looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, statements relating to future

supply and demand; future growth plans and strategy; our marketing plans and strategy; our competitive

position and expectations regarding future competition; regulatory developments; or anticipated trade

challenges.

Although such statements reflect management’s current reasonable beliefs, expectations and assumptions,

there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements are accurate, and actual results and

performance may materially vary. Many factors could cause our actual results or performance to be

materially different including: general economic conditions; changes in annual allowable cut; competition

and selling prices; foreign trade disputes; changes in foreign currency exchange rates; labour disruptions;

natural disasters; relations with First Nations groups; changes in laws, regulations or public policy; and the

factors discussed in the company’s annual information form, which is available on our website at

www.westernforest.com. The foregoing list is not exhaustive, as other factors could adversely affect our

actual results and performance. Forward-looking statements are based only on information currently

available to us and refer only as of the date hereof. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation

to update forward-looking statements.

During the course of this presentation, certain non-GAAP financial information will be presented. Definitions

and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A for Western Forest

Products Inc. (the “Company”).

2

Investment Highlights

Margin-focused business strategy

Superior timber asset base and secure fibre supply

High-value, diverse products serving global markets

Strong financial position and cash flow profile

Business of scale with a liquid share capital

Committed to enhancing shareholder value

Western is Well-positioned to Capitalize on Improving Market Fundamentals

Mill Location Capacity1

(MMfbm)

Ladysmith Ladysmith, BC 130

Cowichan Bay Duncan, BC 215

Saltair Ladysmith, BC 240

Alberni Pacific Port Alberni, BC 175

Duke Point Nanaimo, BC 90

Chemainus Chemainus, BC 130

Somass2

Port Alberni, BC 90

Total 1,070

3

Operations Snapshot

Margin-focused, log and specialty

lumber company

Serving global markets from

Coastal B.C. and Washington

– Largest Crown timber tenure

holder in Coastal B.C.

– Leading cedar lumber

manufacturer in North America

– Timber resource unaffected by

mountain pine beetle

Operating seven sawmills with a

capacity of 1,070 million board

feet, as well as a distribution and

processing facility in Arlington,

Washington

BC

WA

Vancouver

(Head Office)

Canada

U.S.

Strategically Located Manufacturing Locations With Secure Fibre Supply

(1) Based on two shifts and 250 operating days, except Chemainus at three shifts(2) Indefinitely curtailed July 2017

33%

25%

19%

13%

7%3%

Canada

United States

China

Japan

Other

Europe

56%

19%

18%

7% Specialty Lumber

Commodity Lumber

Logs

By-products

4

Financial Snapshot

LTM1 revenue of $1.1 billion

LTM1 EBITDA of $162 million

Market cap. of ~$1.1 billion2

Quarterly dividend of

$0.0225 per share

– $0.09 per share annually

Well capitalized balance

sheet

– Currently in a net cash

position

Strong Financial Performance, Net Cash Position and Attractive Dividend

(1) Last twelve months total external revenue ended March 31, 2018(2) Based on closing share price of $2.79 on May 3, 2018

LTM1 Sales by Product

LTM1 Sales by Geography

75%

Lumber

58%

Canada

& U.S.

5

Strategic Priorities

WFP is Executing on its Strategic Priorities

• Strategic capital

improvement projects

• Invest in people and

systems to create a

platform for growth

• Consolidation of

coastal operating

base

Strengthen

FoundationGrow the Base

• Optimize operations

• Targeted products of

scale to selected

customers

• Margin improvement

program

• Mutually beneficial

relationships with

coastal First Nations

Explore

Opportunities

• Pursue external

opportunities to grow

our margin-focused

business

• Evaluate

opportunities to grow

shareholder value

1 2 3

6

Fibre and Processing Flow Chart

Timber Resource is Directed to Highest Margin Opportunity

(1) Based on the twelve months ended March 31, 2018

Hemlock /

Balsam

Western Red

Cedar

Douglas Fir

Yellow

Cedar

Annual

Allowable Cut

(AAC) For Logs

(~6.0 million m3)

Log

Purchases(1)

(~1.2 million m3)

External Log

Sales

Internal Log

Consumption

Japan Specialty

Western Red

Cedar

Niche

Export Log

Markets

Domestic Log

Markets

Pulp Log

Markets

CommoditySpruce

Raw Inputs Finished

Products / Sales

~68% of Logs

Processed at WFP

manufacturing

facilities

~32% of Logs Sold

Div

ers

e a

nd

Un

iqu

e S

pe

cie

s M

ix

Manufacturing

Facilities

Lumber Segments

Log Markets

21%

2%

8%69%

18%

7%

7%68%

7

Log Flows

Directing Log Volume to Highest Margin Opportunity

Log End Market DescriptionPrimary Target

Geographies

WFP

Sawmills

• All five species of Western’s sawlogs

consumed by internal manufacturing

operations

• Internal log supply supplemented by

open market purchases to maximize

margin

Domestic

• Includes sawlogs, peelers and shingle

logs sold through contractual

commitments and open market

transactions

Pulplogs

• Volumes committed under long-term

fibre supply agreements

• Commitments met through internal log

supply, supply contracts and open

market pulplog purchases

Export

• Represents log sorts produced in

excess of internal mill requirements

• Typically command premium prices

due to strong demand

• Transportation optimization

(1) Based on total external log sales and internal log consumption for the twelve months ended March 31, 2018, including purchased logs. Internal transfer values based on Vancouver Log Market prices

Exte

rna

l L

og

Sa

les

LTM1 Logs by Value

LTM1 Logs by Volume

31%

External

Log

Sales

32%

External

Log

Sales

8

Manufacturing and Sales

Log

Supply

Marketing

Strategy

Manufacturing

Strategy

Sales

Strategy

11 - 18”5 – 11” 16 - 22” 20 - 30” 24”+

Log Cutting

Patterns

Log Dimension

Product

Group

Lumber

Product Type

Narrow

Dimension

Wide

DimensionSquares Timbers

Grade &

Appearance

CommodityCommodity /

Western Red CedarJapan

Niche /

Western Red Cedar

Niche /

Western Red Cedar

Log diameter determines the lumber products manufactured

Western’s Flexible Manufacturing Platform Creates Unique Marketing Opportunity

27%

18%

8%

47%

45%

21%

9%

25%

9

Diversified Lumber Product Offering

Allows Western to Profitably Service Multiple Markets Throughout the Cycle

(1) Based on lumber sales for the twelve months ended March 31, 2018

Lumber Segment DescriptionPrimary Target

Geographies

Western

Red

Cedar

• Consumer-orientated products

• Naturally durable

• Ideal for outside uses

Japan

Specialty

• Products for traditional post

and beam construction

• Requires unique and rigorous

quality standards

Niche

• Specialty products and

markets

• Focused on appearance

grades, value-add products

Commodity• Traditional dimension lumber

and developing grades

• Currently focused on China

Sp

ecia

lty S

eg

me

nts

Asia Europe

LTM1 Lumber by Value

LTM1 Lumber by Volume

75%

Specialty

53%

Specialty

Global

10

Sample Lumber Products

Diverse Product Offering From Complete Harvest Profile of Log Sizes

Western Red Cedar Niche Japan Specialty

Commodity

17.1%

27.5%23.4%

16.8%

3.9%

-1.8%0.8%

2.7%

11.1%

15.9%12.9%

10.5%

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3

$1,037

$545

$682 $666$567

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 CommodityLumber

11

Specialty Product Focus Reduces Volatility

75% of lumber revenue is

generated from non-commodity

products

Sells at a significant premium to

commodity lumber

More stable margins through the

cycle

Product / market diversity and

global exposure provide

additional opportunities to seek

best margin

Cedar, niche and commodity

grades will benefit from U.S.

housing recovery and global

demand

Focus on Specialty Products Delivered 34 Consecutive Quarters of Positive EBITDA

(1) Includes chips, residuals and logs, as information not separately disclosed (2) KD W S-P-F #2&Btr 2x4 random converted from US$ to C$(3) Reported lumber segment EBITDA which does not deduct for allocated corporate overhead

LTM Average Lumber Selling Price (C$ / mfbm)

Quarterly EBITDA Margins Range (Q1-12 to Q1-18)

(3) (3)

(2)

(1)

High / Low Average

12

Acquisition of Arlington Lumber Distribution and

Processing Facility

18 acre site with a distribution and

processing facility

Centralized warehousing and

distribution closer to our U.S.

customers

Rail spur on site serviced by BNSF

Allows Western to increase

production of targeted specialty

products

Provides Western with protection

from damaging effects of U.S. lumber

duties

Facility and Location Provide Numerous Operating and Logistic Advantages

California Texas

U.S.

Northeast

BC

WA

AB

IDMT

OR

Arlington, WA

1,109

1,340

1,063 1,095

990

1,103

1,008 983

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Average Harvest Volume Average Closing Log Inventory

211

227

221

214

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

13

Seasonality of the Business

Weather (snow pack, heat)

and daylight can impact

harvest volumes and costs

Inventory levels can fluctuate

through the year, impacting

working capital

Seasonal market demand

can impact lumber

production

Seasonal Influences Can Impact Operations

(1) Based on last 16 quarters as of Q1-18

Harvest Production and Log Inventory Volume1 – (000 m3)

Average Lumber Production Volume1 – (MMfbm)

14

Competitive Strengths

Sustainable, diverse timber base providing a unique range of products

Customer of choice for other coastal log producers due to competitive

advantages of scale, financial strength and proximity

Flexible manufacturing platform that can target a variety of global markets

High margin specialty products for the U.S. market – cedar, timbers,

moulding & millwork, industrial applications

Low cost access to ocean shipping (break bulk, container & barge)

providing competitive transportation to global markets and avoiding rail

congestion

Uniquely positioned to capitalize on growth in U.S. market. WFP’s market

share in Japan / China likely to benefit from repatriation of U.S. production

Washington State based warehousing and distribution facility close to I-5

corridor servicing U.S. customers

Western is a Compelling Pure-Play, Solid Wood Products Investment

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

15

How is WFP Different From Its Public Lumber Peers

Pure play lumber and log, specialty company

Cedar and specialty products focused with commodity lumber component

– Peers focused on commodity lumber with some specialty products

– Significantly higher average product pricing versus commodity lumber peers

No mountain pine beetle impacted fibre

No material rail or truck transportation issues; ocean going advantage

– WFP uses the BNSF railway line to ship products

Offers an attractive dividend yield to investors

– Quarterly dividend of $0.0225 per share ($0.09 per share annually)

1

2

3

4

5

16

Strategic Capital Investments

Capital projects expected to

generate a return in excess of

20%

Initiatives focused on:

– Reducing costs

– Increasing efficiency

– Improving product flexibility

– Growing production

Applying proven technology in

coastal operations

Capital Projects Benefiting Operations

Duke Point

Planer

Planer

Head Rig

Chemainus

Timber Deck

Timber Deck

Saltair

Merchandiser

17

Demonstrating Sustainability and Environmental

Stewardship

Committed to ensuring the sustainability of the

natural resources in our care

All of Western’s timber tenures are certified

according to globally recognized standards,

including:

– Sustainable Forestry Initiative

– Canadian Standards Association

– Chain of Custody (PEFC and FSC)

Third party independent audits are conducted

annually of Western’s Environmental Management

Systems

Western participates in energy conservation

programs, such as the Sustainable Energy

Management Program with BC Hydro

Operate a tree seed orchard and a seedling

nursery that produces over 6 million seeds per

year and has produced over 100 million seedlings

APPENDIX

19

Western’s Business to Benefit from Global Supply /

Demand Factors

Factors Highly Attractive Underlying Supply/Demand Dynamics

U.S. Economic

and Housing

Market Recovery

• Housing market and repair and remodel activity recovering from

trough levels

• Transition from supply driven to demand driven market expected to

result in improved pricing for wood products

Continued

Growth

in China

• Economic growth and urbanization

• Consumption of wood will increase

• Limited domestic fibre supply; increasing need for imports

U.S. Supply

Exit from

Japan Market

• Repatriation of U.S. lumber exports back to U.S. market creates

opportunity for Western

• Government policy designed to increase domestic consumption

Canadian

Fibre Supply

Reduction

• Mountain pine beetle expected to negatively impact interior fibre

supply and lumber production

• Eastern Canada AAC reductions

Strong

Underlying

Demand

Drivers for

Wood Products

Reduced

Supply

of Fibre

1

2

3

4

$117 $126$146 $135 $128 $124 $114 $116 $120 $114 $114 $120 $128 $136

$152 $155 $160 $167 $174 $176

0

50

100

150

200

2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

Ex

pe

nd

itu

res (

US

$ b

illio

ns

)

1.85 1.95 2.071.81

1.34

0.900.55 0.59 0.61

0.78 0.93 1.00 1.11 1.18 1.21 1.31 1.39 1.49 1.61 1.48

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

Housin

g S

tart

s (

mill

ions)

50-Year Average: 1.4MM

20

Demand Drivers: U.S. Economic and Housing Market

Recovery1

U.S. Housing Starts

U.S. Repair & Remodel Expenditures

Source: Forest Economic Advisors (May 2018)

50

150

250

350

450

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

US

$ p

er M

fbm

Ho

us

ing

Sta

rts

(M

M)

U.S. Housing Starts Canada Housing Starts NA Lumber Exports (Housing Starts Equivalent) KD SPF 2x4 2+Btr (US$) (Actual) KD SPF 2x4 2+Btr (US$) (FEA Projections)

Average NA Housing Starts(since 1990) = 1.3MM

21

Demand Drivers: New Supply / Demand Dynamics

Will Positively Impact Lumber Pricing

Reduced supply from traditional sources combined with increased demand

from U.S. and Asian markets is expected to benefit lumber prices

1

Source: Forest Economic Advisors (May 2018); Western Forest Products

Housing Starts (North American and Lumber Export Equivalent) vs. Western SPF Lumber Pricing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

'04A '05A '06A '07A '08A '09A '10A '11A '12A '13A '14A '15A '16A '17A

mill

ion

Russia New Zealand North America

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

'04A '05A '06A '07A '08A '09A '10A '11A '12A '13A '14A '15A '16A '17A

mill

ion

Russia New Zealand North America

22

Demand Drivers: China Growth Has Changed Global

Wood Products Demand Dynamics

A deficit of domestic fibre will require China to rely on imports

Rising wealth/urbanization trends expected to increase demand for structural

and higher grade lumber:

– 300 million Chinese people (roughly equivalent to the U.S. population) expected to

move from rural to urban areas between 2010 and 2025

2

Source: China Customs; International Wood Markets (February 2018)

China Log Imports Chinese Lumber Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A

Ho

usin

g S

tarts

(millio

ns)

Lum

ber

Imp

ort

s (

mill

ion m

3)

Softwood Lumber Imports from U.S. Softwood Lumber Imports from Canada Japan Housing Starts

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A

Lum

ber

Imp

ort

s (

mill

ion m

3)

U.S. Hem U.S. Douglas Fir CDN Hem CDN Douglas Fir

23

Demand Drivers: U.S. Supply Exit From Japan Will

Create Market Opportunity

Japan continues to be a major source of demand for wood products and

lumber from North America

In recent years, suppliers in the U.S. West have increased export activities to

Japan due to a lack of domestic demand in the U.S

– As North American housing markets recover, much of this U.S. supply will be

diverted back to local U.S. markets, potentially creating a significant supply gap in

Japan for imported lumber

3

Source: Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport; The Trade Statistics, Japan Ministry of Finance; Japan Lumber Importers’ Association (February 2018)

Japanese Lumber Imports of Canadian

and U.S. Douglas Fir and Hemlock

Japanese Imports of Canadian and U.S.

Lumber and Japanese Housing Starts

~100 million board feet opportunity to

replace non-SPF U.S. exports to Japan

30.5 30.524.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3

20.0 20.0 21.2 21.2 21.2 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0

0

10

20

30

2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

AA

C (

mill

ion m

3)

55.462.2 64.1 65.7 68.0 67.0 66.9 66.4 61.5 60.8 61.3 60.7 62.1 56.5

50.3 50.3 50.3 49.3 49.3 48.8

0

20

40

60

80

2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

AA

C (

mill

ion m

3)

24

Supply Drivers: Canadian Fibre Supply Reduction4

Source: Forest Economic Advisors (May 2018)

Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic and lower AAC in B.C. and Eastern Canada are

expected to have significant negative impact on North American lumber capacity

B.C. Interior AAC

Quebec AAC

5.5%

7.2%

5.5%

13.2%

10.5% 10.8%

12.5%13.3%

14.1%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTMQ1-18

$37

$62 $51

$129

$109 $117

$148 $153 $162

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTMQ1-18

669

811 894 895 909 883

952 857 847

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTMQ1-18

$668

$854 $925

$978 $1,037 $1,082

$1,187 $1,143 $1,147

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTMQ1-18

25

Historical Financial Snapshot – Annual

Revenue ($ millions)

Lumber Shipments (MMfbm)

Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions)

Adjusted EBITDA Margin %

14.2%

11.1% 11.5% 11.8%

16.4%

11.4%

13.7%14.7%

Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18

$43

$36 $34 $34

$47

$33

$39 $43

Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18

232 252

231 225

194

220 201

215

Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18

$302

$323

$293 $288 $287 $285 $283

$292

Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18

26

Historical Financial Snapshot – Last 8 Quarters

Revenue ($ millions)

Lumber Shipments (MMfbm)

Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions)

Adjusted EBITDA Margin %

n/a n/a n/a

$16

$31 $32 $32 $32 $32

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTMQ1-18

$100

$52

$15

$83 $78

$54

$15

($35)($47)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1-18

$12 $19

$32

$59 $50

$62 $56 $55 $59

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTMQ1-18

$38 $44

$58

$111

$87 $99

$128 $134

$112

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTMQ1-18

27

Historical Cash Flow, Capital Allocation and Debt

Cash Flow from Operations1 ($ millions)

Net Debt / (Cash) ($ millions)

Capex2 ($ millions)

Dividends ($ millions)

(1) After changes in non-cash working capital(2) Additions to property, plant and equipment; excludes acquisition capex

28

Timber Tenures and Facilities

29

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Firm Analyst Name Contact

CIBC World Market Hamir Patel• 604 331-3047

[email protected]

Raymond James Daryl Swetlishoff• 604 659-8246

[email protected]

RBC Capital Markets Paul Quinn• 604 257-7048

[email protected]

Scotiabank Benoit Laprade• 514 287-3627

[email protected]

TD Securities Sean Steuart• 416 308-3399

[email protected]

30

Investor Relations Contacts

These materials have been prepared by Management of the Company. No regulatory authority has

approved or disapproved of the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an

offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the Company and shall not

constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such

offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may not be offered or sold in

the United States absent their prior registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the

applicable registration or qualification requirements.

Stephen WilliamsExecutive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

604-648-4572

[email protected]

Dallyn WillisSenior Director, Finance & Administration

604-648-4595

[email protected]


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