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IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

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  1. 1. 1567 28 Polar Regions Coordinating Lead Authors: Joan Nymand Larsen (Iceland), Oleg A.Anisimov (Russian Federation) Lead Authors: Andrew Constable (Australia),Anne B. Hollowed (USA), Nancy Maynard (USA), Pl Prestrud (Norway),Terry D. Prowse (Canada), John M.R. Stone (Canada) Contributing Authors: Terry V. Callaghan (UK), Mark Carey (USA), Peter Convey (UK),Andrew Derocher (Canada), Bruce C. Forbes (Finland), Peter T. Fretwell (UK), Solveig Glomsrd (Norway), Dominic Hodgson (UK), Eileen Hofmann (USA), Grete K. Hovelsrud (Norway), Gita L. Ljubicic (Canada), Harald Loeng (Norway), Eugene Murphy (UK), Steve Nicol (Australia),Anders Oskal (Norway), James D. Reist (Canada), Phil Trathan (UK), Barbara Weinecke (Australia), Fred Wrona (Canada) Review Editors: Maria Ananicheva (Russian Federation), F. Stuart Chapin III (USA) Volunteer Chapter Scientist: Vasiliy Kokorev (Russian Federation) This chapter should be cited as: Larsen, J.N., O.A.Anisimov,A. Constable,A.B. Hollowed, N. Maynard, P. Prestrud,T.D. Prowse, and J.M.R. Stone, 2014: Polar regions. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros,V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach,T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi,Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel,A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1567-1612.
  2. 2. 28 1568 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................................... 1570 28.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1572 28.2. Observed Changes and Vulnerability under Multiple Stressors ........................................................................... 1572 28.2.1. Hydrology and Freshwater Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................... 1572 28.2.1.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1572 28.2.1.2. Antarctic .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1573 28.2.2. Oceanography and Marine Ecosystems .......................................................................................................................................... 1574 28.2.2.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1574 28.2.2.2. Antarctica ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1576 28.2.3. Terrestrial Ecosystems ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1577 28.2.3.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1577 28.2.3.2. Antarctica ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1581 28.2.4. Health and Well-being of Arctic Residents ...................................................................................................................................... 1581 28.2.4.1. Direct Impacts of a Changing Climate on the Health of Arctic Residents ........................................................................ 1581 28.2.4.2. Indirect Impacts of Climate Change on the Health of Arctic Residents ............................................................................ 1582 28.2.5. Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Knowledge .............................................................................................................................. 1583 28.2.6. Economic Sectors ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1584 28.2.6.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1584 28.2.6.2. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean ................................................................................................................................. 1585 28.3. Key Projected Impacts and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................... 1586 28.3.1. Hydrology and Freshwater Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................... 1586 28.3.1.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1586 28.3.1.2. Antarctica ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1586 28.3.2. Oceanography and Marine Ecosystems .......................................................................................................................................... 1587 28.3.2.1. Ocean Acidication in the Arctic and Antarctic ................................................................................................................ 1587 28.3.2.2. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1587 28.3.2.3. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean ................................................................................................................................. 1589 28.3.3. Terrestrial Environment and Related Ecosystems ............................................................................................................................ 1589 28.3.3.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1589 28.3.3.2. Antarctica ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1590 28.3.4. Economic Sectors ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1590 28.3.4.1. Fisheries .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1590 28.3.4.2. Forestry and Farming ....................................................................................................................................................... 1591 28.3.4.3. Infrastructure,Transportation, and Terrestrial Resources ................................................................................................. 1591 Table of Contents
  3. 3. 1569 Polar Regions Chapter 28 28 28.4. Human Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................ 1593 28.5. Research and Data Gaps ....................................................................................................................................... 1595 References ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1596 Frequently Asked Questions 28.1: What will be the net socioeconomic impacts of change in the polar regions? ............................................................................... 1595 28.2: Why are changes in sea ice so important to the polar regions? ...................................................................................................... 1596
  4. 4. 1570 Chapter 28 Polar Regions 28 Executive Summary Additional and stronger scientific evidence has accumulated since the AR4 that reinforces key findings made in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The impacts of climate change, and the adaptations to it, exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity in the polar regions because of the high diversity of social systems, biophysical regions, and associated drivers of change (high confidence). {28.2.2} For example, the tree line has moved northward and upward in many, but not all,Arctic areas (high confidence) and significant increases in tall shrubs and grasses have been observed in many places (very high confidence). {28.2.3.1.2} Some marine species will shift their ranges in response to changing ocean and sea ice conditions in the polar regions (medium confidence). The response rate and the spatial extent of the shifts will differ by species based on their vulnerability to change and their life history. {28.2.2, 28.3.2} Loss of sea ice in summer and increased ocean temperatures are expected to impact sec
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