IPCC AR5 Implications for Buildings Briefing WEB En

8/9/2019 IPCC AR5 Implications for Buildings Briefing WEB En

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Key Findings from theIntergovernmentl Pnelon Climte ChngeFifth Assessment Report

Climate Change:

Implictionsfor Buildings


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IMPLICATIONS FOR BUILDINS P3

About

this documentPUBLISHED:

June 2014

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

E-mil: [email protected]/ipcc

www.bpie.eu

www.gbpn.org

www.wbcsd.org

www.europenclimte.org

AUTHOR:

Ptrick Chlmers

REVIEWERS:

Cmbridge Tem:

Nicolette Brtlett, Stcy ilfilln,

Dvid Reiner, Eliot Whittington

PROJECT DIRECTOR:

Tim Nuthll

PROJECT MANAER/EDITOR:

Jonn Benn

EDITORIAL CONSULTANTS:

Crolyn Symon, Richrd Blck

PROJECT ASSISTANTS:

Myrim Cstni,Simon McKegney

LAYOUT DESIN:

Lucie Bsset, Burnthebook

INFORAPHIC:

Crl De Torres rphic Design

The Fifth Assessment Report from the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the

most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our

changing climate. It provides the scientific fact basethat will be used around the world to formulate

climate policies in the coming years.

This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findingsof AR for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the beliefthat the building sector could make more use of AR, which is long andhighly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely,relevant and readable summary.

Although the information presented here is a translation of the keycontent relevant to this sector from AR, this summary report adheresto the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material.

Grateful thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science andbusiness communities for their time, effort and invaluable feedback onthis document.

The basis for information presented in this overview report can be foundin the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientificbackground reports at: www.ipcc.ch


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P4 CLIMATE: EVERYONES BUSINESS

Key

FindingsIn 2010, the worlds buildings ccounted for 32% of globl

finl energy use nd 19% of ll greenhouse gs (H)

emissions. Under business-s-usul projections, use of

energy in buildings globlly could double or even triple by2050. Drivers include billions of people cquiring dequte

housing nd ccess to electricity.

Widespred implementtion of best prctices nd

technologies could see energy use in buildings stbilise or

even fll by 2050.Mny mitigtion options promise multiple

co-benefits.

Mny brriers exist to greter uptke of energy-sving

opportunities,including poor mrket trnsprency, limited

ccess to cpitl nd risk version. But know-how exists

on retrofitting nd how to build very low- nd zero-energy

buildings, often t little mrginl investment cost; nd there

is brod portfolio of effective policy instruments vilble

to remove brriers to uptke.

The very long life-cycles of buildings crete risks of

energy use lock-inwith the effects of low mbition tody

plying out for decdes. Using stte-of-the-rt stndrds

immeditely, for both new nd retrofit buildings, wouldllevite this hzrd.

Buildings fce mjor risks of dmge from the projected

impcts of climte chnge,hving lredy experienced

big increse in extreme wether dmge in recent decdes.

There is likely to be significnt regionl vrition in the

intensity nd nture of such impcts.


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ExecutiveSummry

The worlds buildings account for just undera third of global final energy use and about afifth of all GHG emissions, although energyuse varies widely from region to region.

Buildings energy use in developed countriesis generally very wasteful and inefficient,although mounting evidence shows thisneed not be the case. Developing countriesrisk locking into the same pattern as theireconomies and populations grow hencebusiness-as-usual trends projectingtwo- or three-fold rises in global buildingfinal energy demand and associatedemissions by 2050.

Yet buildings offer near-term, highly cost-

effective opportunities to curb energy-demand growth rates, even to reverse themin developed economies. A few developedcountries have already reversed growth intotal energy use by using stricter buildingcodes and appliance standards.

Exploiting this potential more widelyrequires sustained policies and actionsthat address all aspects of the design,construction, and operation of buildings andtheir equipment, as well as changing userbehaviours and attitudes.

Within the buildings sector, both residentialand commercial, early movers towardsefficiency can reap multiple benefits.These include more valuable, resilientbuildings that offer better living andworking conditions for owners and tenants,associated improvements in health andproductivity, and higher occupancy rates.

Lack of access to capital presents asignificant hurdle to progress, not leastfor resource-poor countries. Yet energyefficiency helps other development goals,

including better health from improvedindoor air quality, poverty alleviation andimproved energy security.

The longevity of buildings presents the riskof energy performance lock-in wherebytodays sluggish ambition confers a legacyof less than optimal buildings to futuregenerations. Avoiding lock-in requiresthe urgent adoption of state-of-the-artperformance standards in all buildings.

Buildings face multiple climate change

impacts including more frequent strongwind, increased heat, particularly in cities(Urban Heat Island effect), and the floodsand wildfires that accompany some extremeweather events. Buildings have alreadyexperienced big increases in damage overrecent decades.


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There is major potential for energy savings of upto 5090% in existing and new buildings. Manymitigation options are immediately available andhighly cost-effective. Although well-documentedsolutions exist, there are barriers indicating a needfor effective policy instruments. Different modellingapproaches project different energy-use trends andsuggest alternative emphases for mitigation. Top-down, integrated models that optimise across sectorssuggest that building emissions will further rise inthe future. On the other hand, bottom-up modelsthat cover mitigation options for the building sectorin far greater detail project scenarios in whichemissions may be cost-effectively stabilised or evenreduced by 2050.

The primary mitigation strategies comprise carbonefficiency, energy efficiency of technology, systemand infrastructure efficiency, and service demandreduction via behavioural and lifestyle changes.

Crbon efficiencyAt present, electricity is the main energy used forcooling and appliances in buildings, while mostcountries use fossil fuels for heating. Both energycarriers are causing significant carbon emissions.More than 2 billion people presently have no accessto electricity or clean energy for cooking. If theirenergy provision shifts to electricity, this may shifttrends in building-related emissions.

Integrated models suggest that electricity sectordecarbonisation offers lower cost mitigation gainsthan direct emission cuts in energy end-use sectors.That contrasts with sectoral model projections,which suggest targeting big cuts in both primary fueland electricity use before exploring low- and zero-carbon electricity options. Switching to advancedbiomass stoves would save cooking energy useand its associated emissions. The long lifetimes ofbuildings mean that life cycle cost calculations arekey to deciding optimal choices.

Barriers to progress include sub-optimal technologyand the disincentive effects of conventional fuel

subsidies. Feed-in tariffs, carbon taxes and softloans for small-scale renewables can help overcomesuch barriers.

MitigtionPotentil


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Energy efficienttechnologyThere are many mitigation options specificallyapplicable to buildings.

High-performance building envelopes.Typically, these have high-performanceinsulation and windows, avoiding thermalbridges and maintaining air tightness whileusing mechanical ventilation with or withoutheat recovery to maintain high indoor air quality

Energy-efficient appliances, efficientlighting, and Heating, Ventilation andAir-Conditioning (HVAC)

Evaporative cooling and solar-powered desiccantdehumidification, as locally appropriate.

Improved building automation and controlsystems that respond to changing conditions

Daylighting designing buildings for controlledadmission of natural light, adjustable throughthe day using solar shading

Using smart meters and grids to modulate

supply in real time.

Total life-cycle energy use in low-energy buildingsis less than for conventional buildings. Largeramounts of energy may be embodied in theirmaterials and energy-efficiency features, but thisis outweighed by in-use energy savings. Swedishresearch estimates that a low-energy house wouldrequire 40% less total energy over a 50-yearperiod. Barriers to such technologies includefragmented market and institutional structures,the lack of user feedback loops, transaction costsand principal-agent problems (when buildingowners or operators derive no direct benefits fromimprovements). Key policies to cut through thesebarriers include public procurement, appliancestandards, tax exemptions, and soft loans.

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

of the Intergovernmentl Pnel on

Climte Chnge (IPCC) is the most

detiled ssessment of climte

chnge ever.

Recent advances in technologies, know-how and policies provide opportunities

to stabilise or reduce global buildings sector energy use by 2050.


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System or infrstructureefficiency

Taking an infrastructure efficiency approach improvesthe prospects of significant savings. Integrated designprocesses prioritise energy performance-and-use factorsthroughout design, construction and commissioning.

Passive building designs those that minimise or eveneliminate the need for mechanical heating, cooling andventilation offer potential for both cost savings andcarbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation. Active designs can alsoachieve low energy use and related emissions, whileadjusting to suit conditions and user needs.

Individual retrofits can produce big savings versusbaseline business-as-usual energy use, depending onthe building type. Existing examples include:

Detached single-family homes cutting total energy

use by 5075% Multi-family housing reducing space heating

requirements by 8090% and, in developing countries,cutting cooling energy use by 30% and heating energyby 60%

Commercial building HVAC energy use reduced by2550% and by 3060% for lighting.

Policies to encourage these types of retrofit includetighter building codes, preferential loans, grants,subsidised finance, use of Energy PerformanceCertificates (EPCs), energy supplier efficiency obligationsand tradeable white certificates.

Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) can aid mitigationefforts by striking performance-based contracts withend users, investing in efficiencies, then profiting fromsavings. Pushing ESCOs to pursue long-term, ambitioussavings is essential to avoid locking-in sub-optimalcontracts. Other possibilities include utility-providedenergy services, on-bill financing or the US PropertyAssessed Clean Energy (PACE) finance mechanism.



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Service demnd reduction

Energy use increases projected for buildings relatemainly to higher demand for energy services, driven by

people moving out of poverty and changing patterns ofconsumption. Potential instruments that can deliverdemand reduction in the context of these social trendsinclude carbon pricing, personal carbon trading,property taxation related to building CO

2emissions,

progressive appliance standards and building codes withabsolute consumption limits. More intense or frequentextreme weather events will affect property insurance.Insurability can be preserved through risk-reducingmeasures, although not without limit.

Multiple co-benefits ofcutting CO2emissions

Mitigtion offers mny co-benefits tht cn

substntilly exceed climte nd energy

benefits. Yet they re rrely recognised s

doing so, still less internlised in policies.

Among these co-benefits re reduced

mortlity nd morbidity from improved

indoor nd outdoor ir qulity prticulrlyin developing countries nd reduced

energy nd fuel poverty.

Economic benefits include:

Higher sset vlues

Lower energy bills

More jobs

Improved energy security

Improved productivity of commercil

building occupnts.

Reducing overll energy demnd lso eses

pek pressure on grids nd cuts energy

trnsmission nd distribution losses, s well

s improving energy security, lessening

humn impct on ecosystems nd lessening

the building sectors overll contribution to

climte chnge.


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ENERGY INSECURITY

KEY ISSUES

EXTREME WEATHER

DROUGHT

GLOBAL WARMING

HUMAN BEHAVIOUR

Building for a low-carbon futureEffective policies can lead to buildings and wider settlements thatare climate resilient and use energy efficiently, so curbing the risein greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is potential for energy

savings of 5090% in existing and new buildings.

BUILDING-AS-USUAL

Buildings energy use in developed countries is

generally wasteful and inefficient. Developing

countries risk locking into the same pattern as

their economies and populations grow richer.

DemndPressures

Under business-as-usual

projections, use of energy

in buildings globally could

double or even triple by

2050. Drivers include

billions of people acquiring

adequate housing and

access to electricity.More welth, more urbn

dwellers nd higher

globl popultion will

lso rise demnd.

Warming ndEnergy Demnd

Higher temperatures willdrive changes in climate-

related energy demand. In

low-income countries, rising

wealth will be the main

driver of increasing energy

demand, principally for air

conditioning and transport.

Impacts andRisks

Many buildings are

vulnerable to impacts

of climate change.

These include increased

precipitation, thawing

permafrost, and extreme

weather-related events

such as wildfires, severe

storms and floods.

Without investment in

improved resilience, this

vulnerability is destinedto increase.

Climte Chnge - Everyone's Business Implictions for Buildings

Energyin the Home

Trditionl lrge ppli-

nces ccount for most

household electricity

consumption, yet their

shre is flling fst.

Electronic entertinment

nd communictions

equipment now ccountfor more thn 20% of

residentil electricity use

in most countries.


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5

1

6

8

7

10

11

9

4

2

3

In 2010, buildings ccounted for

32% of globl finl energy use.

In 2010, buildings ccounted for 19% of

all GHG emissions.

CO2emissions in the building sector

could double or triple by 2050.

BUILDING FOR THE FUTURE

Widespread implementation of best practices and technologies

could see energy use in buildings stabilise or even fall by 2050.

Many mitigation options promise multiple co-benefits.

Service DemndReduction

11 Energy use increases

projected for buildings relate

mainly to higher demand for

energy services, driven by

people moving out of

poverty and changing

patterns of consumption.

Potential means to deliver

demand reduction include

carbon pricing, personal

carbon trading, property

taxation related to building

CO2emissions, progressive

appliance standards and

building codes with absolute

consumption limits.

Averge CO

reduction potentil:

2040% of bseline

Crbon Efficiency

9 At present, electricity is

the main form of energy

used for cooling and

appliances, while fossil fuelsare used for heating.

Changing fuels and energy

supply infrastructure to

buildings will be needed to

deliver large emissions cuts

even if end-use demand falls.

10 More than 2 billion

people currently lack access

to modern energy carriers.

The evolution of their energy

provision will drive trends in

buildings-related emissions.

Averge CO

reduction potentil:2045% of bseline

Energy-EfficientTechnology

1 High-performance building envelopes.

Typically, with high-performance insulation

and windows, and high indoor air quality.

2 Energy-efficient appliances, efficient

lighting, and Heating, Ventilation and

Air-Conditioning (HVAC).

3 Improved building automation and

control systems that respond to changing

conditions. Daylighting. Using smart

meters and grids to modulate supply in

real time.

4 Evaporative cooling and solar-powered

desiccant dehumidification.

Averge CO

reduction potentil:

2045% of bseline

Key Findings from the Intergovernmentl Pnel on Climte Chnge (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) cisl.cam.ac.u k/ipcc bpie.eu wbcsd.orggpbn.org

SystemInfrstructureEfficiency

5 Know-how exists on

retrofitting and how to build

very low-and zero-energy

buildings, often t little

mrginl investment cost or

mngeble payback times.

6 Pssive building designs

tht minimise or eliminte

the need for mechanical

heating, cooling and

ventilation.

7 Deep retrofits of existing

buildings hve brought

5090% energy svings.

8 Integrted Design

Processes prioritise energy

performnce-nd-use

fctors through building

design, construction nd

commissioning.

Averge CO

reduction potentil:

3070% of bseline


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Climate change is projected to have profound impacts on the built

environment, although the precise extent of these impacts is uncertain

and will vary significantly between and within regions.

Many buildings are vulnerable to progressivechanges in climate and to extreme events.Impacts include increased precipitation, thawingpermafrost, more frequent wildfires, severe stormsand floods. Without investment in improvedresilience, this vulnerability is destined to increase.The location of the built assets is key to theirvulnerability.

The construction sector itself faces direct impacts.Precipitation extremes could increase construction

delays and thus costs. Climate change also riskschanging the length of building seasons. Thechanging patterns of extreme weather events implymore rebuilding and repair work.

The increased incidence and severity of heat waveshas implications for building design, potentiallyimplying the need to move away from currentarchitectural designs towards different approachesfor new builds.

Higher temperatures will drive changes in climate-related energy demand. In low-income countries,

usually with warmer climates, increased wealthwill be the main driver of increasing energydemand, principally for air conditioning andtransport. Without additional mitigation policies,global energy demand for air-conditioning isprojected to increase from nearly 300 TWh in 2000to 4000 TWh in 2050.

Energy demand for winter heating is also projectedto rise, although much less rapidly, as regions withthe highest need for heating are generally alreadyrich enough to afford it, with some exceptions.Developed country heating energy demand is seenas flat through to 2030 while developing countrieswill consume significantly more.

Climate-related hazards affect poor people directlythrough impacts that include the total destructionof their homes, which tend to be relatively

vulnerable. Damage to physical assets fromextreme weather events is well documented forpoor urban settlements, often built on risk-pronefloodplains and hillsides susceptible to erosion andlandslides. Richer households in high-risk areasmay get relief with insurance or by lobbying forprotective policies, in contrast to poor residents.

Impcts of

Climte Chnge


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There is a lack of private investment intoadaptation best practices in design andconstruction of existing buildings, putting thosestructures in the front line for projected increases

in climate damage risk. Protecting new buildingsfrom the same climate change impacts would meanincorporating adaptation responses into theirdesign and construction.

Factors affecting any locations capacity foradaptation include the quality of local governmentand risk-reducing infrastructure and services. Theextent of housing built to suitable health and safetystandards, and local levels of risk from climatechange impacts, are also significant.

Governments are key to crafting and coordinating

building sector responses and can identify andencourage synergies between adapting buildingsto climate change and mitigating their GHGemissions, recognising potential for multiplebenefits. Governments might, for example,encourage gardens or reflective materials to beinstalled on roofs to cut solar heat gain and coolthe surrounding air. Taken together, a package ofmeasures might aim to reduce building energy useto the minimum possible, which could be zero oreven net negative.

Technology can reduce or exacerbate risk of

damage during extreme weather events. Anexample of the latter is Hurricane Katrina inNew Orleans, where flood defences enablingconstruction on a floodplain then sufferedcatastrophic failure in the face of an extreme event.

Insurance providers can encourage policy holdersto cut risk exposure by giving resilience ratings to

buildings, feeding into lower premiums. They canalso support work to improve building codes andcommunicate best practices to property owners,governments and others. Yet insurers can also

constrain action for instance when like-for-like replacement clauses prevent improvementsbeing made.

Adaptation challenges facing developing countriesalso present many opportunities, as economicinequality generally translates into poor housing.More than half the urban areas projected fordeveloping countries by 2030 have yet to be built,offering great potential for integrated adaptationplanning. A first step toward adaptation would beto reduce vulnerability to existing climate risks.

Research in the Metropolitan Region of SoPaulo suggests that knowledge of observed andprojected environmental changes, coupled withan understanding of population vulnerabilities, iscritical for defining adaptation policies. Its lessonscould help buildings-resilience thinking in otherdeveloping country megacities.

In Bangladesh, authorities concentrated shelterconstruction around primary and secondaryschools just as primary school attendance becamecompulsory. The result was new buildings forshelter and schooling designed to meet projected

climate impacts.

Traditional construction methods can cutvulnerability to cyclones and floods in rural areas.Solomon Islanders use elevated floors to stay dryduring heavy rains and construct low, aerodynamichouses with sago palm leaves as roofing material.

Resilience nd

Adpttion


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Regionl

PerspectivesBig regional variations exist in climatechange risks and capacities to meet them.Some of the perspectives highlightedhere for individual regions apply

equally elsewhere. Huge variabilityalso exists within regions.

Afric

Africas urban population is projected totriple by 2050, increasing by 0.8 billion.Many of the continents evolving cities areunplanned, with informal settlements ofinadequate housing. Cities and towns arehighly vulnerable to climate change impacts,typically lacking provisions to cut floodrisks or manage floods when they arise.Climate change itself could affect Africasrural and urban human settlements, being adeterminant of the scale and type of rural-urban migration. The continents urgentadaptation needs stem from its sensitivityand vulnerability to climate change, coupledwith poor adaptive capacity. Yet adaptationstrategies can generate significantdevelopment co-benefits, boosting thechances of their adoption. Softer measures,such as building codes and zone planning,

are being implemented. These areneeded to complement and inform hard,infrastructural climate proofing. An exampleis Madagascars code for cyclone-resistantpublic buildings.

Europe

Climate change is very likely to increasethe frequency and intensity of heat waves,

particularly in southern Europe. Adaptivestrategies, not exclusive to the region,include using thermal mass, ventilativecooling and solar shading to moderateextremes. There may also be more frequent,and severe, drought-induced soil subsidenceand associated damage to buildings. Sea-level rise and increases in extreme rainfallare projected to further increase coastal- andriver-flood risks in Europe. Adapting homesand commercial buildings to occasionalflooding is possible, although in extreme

cases, managed retreat is the likely policyresponse. Climate change will affect theregions many culturally valued buildings,through extreme events and chronic damageto materials. Europes capacity to adapt isrelatively high, although there are importantdifferences in impacts, and capacity torespond, between and within its sub-regions.


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Building codes and appliance standards, if well designed and

implemented, have been among the most environmentally and

cost effective instruments for emission reductions.

Asi

Climate change will compound Asiasmultiple stresses from rapid urbanisation,

industrialisation and economic development.By 2050, its urban population is projected torise by 1.4 billion. At the same time, extremeweather events will have increasing impactsacross the continent, of varying type andmagnitude depending on location. Half totwo-thirds of Asian cities with a millionor more inhabitants are exposed to one ormultiple climate-related hazards, with floodsand cyclones the most important. Three ofthe worlds five most populated cities (Tokyo,Delhi, Shanghai) lie in areas with high flood

risk. Such risks, and associated human andmaterial losses, are heavily concentrated inIndia, Bangladesh, and China. Urban heat-island effects have risen, with local adaptationof the built environment and urban planningdetermining the public health impacts.Populations in much of Asia cannot affordmechanical cooling especially for domestichousing making it essential to considerlow-energy designs to keep people cool. Theiradoption could reduce later pressures toinstall energy-intensive cooling such as airconditioners. Such principles are embeddedin traditional or so-called vernacular designsthroughout the world, not exclusively inAsia. These could be incorporated withmodern technologies to optimise coolingand resilience, using ventilative coolingas an alternative to mechanical coolingwhere possible.

Oceni

Projected impacts in Australia include morefrequent hot extremes, with associated

wildfires, fewer cold extremes and moreextreme rainfall events causing increasedflood risks in many parts. All of these affectbuildings. In Australia, a sea-level rise of1.1 m would affect AUD226 billion of assets,including up to 274 000 residential and8600 commercial buildings, with otherintangible costs due to stress, health effectsand service disruption. For Oceanias smallislands, current and future risk driversinclude sea-level rise, tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, increasing air and sea

surface temperatures, and changing rainfallpatterns. All of these have implications forbuildings. The dangers presented mirrorthose faced by low-lying islands aroundthe world. Planning, building design, earlywarning systems and public education couldhelp adaptation, as they can elsewhere.Such measures are being implementedin places that have experienced extremeweather events.


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North Americ

Recent changes in climate and individualextreme weather events in North Americahave shown both the impacts of climate-related stresses and the vulnerabilities ofexposed systems. On the Gulf Coast, changeis underway in the design and constructionof new homes in response to hurricanes over

the past decade. Nevertheless, most NorthAmerican markets have seen little change.Many jurisdictions are engaged in climateassessment and planning processes. Thecosts of adaptation, combined with limitedlong-term liability for future buildings, haveled some builders to take a wait-and-seeattitude. Exploratory work is underway toconsider building codes focused both onhistoric weather experience and expectedfuture risks. The housing and constructionindustries have made advances toward

climate change mitigation by incorporatingenergy efficiency in building design. Lessprogress has been made in addressing therisk of damage to buildings from extremeweather events. Leadership in adaptation isfar more evident municipally than at otherlevels of government.

Centrl nd SouthAmeric

Central and South America collectivelyhave the second highest proportion ofpopulation in urban areas (79%), behindNorth America (82%), and well above theworld average (50%). These populations

face diverse social, political, economic andenvironmental risks in daily life. Climatechange could add another layer. The stillhigh and persistent levels of poverty inmost Central and South American countriestranslate into high vulnerability to climatechange. Economic inequality means unequalaccess to water, sanitation and adequatehousing, particularly for the most vulnerablegroups, and low adaptive capacities toclimate change.


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Buildings represent a critical piece of any global low-carbon future. Yet inmany developing countries there is also a substantial need for shelter andbasic services. Effective policies in these countries can lead to buildings,and wider settlements, that are climate resilient and use energy veryefficiently, thus curbing the rise in GHG emissions. Opportunities formajor energy savings also exist in the often wasteful and inefficientbuildings of developed countries and emerging economies.

Impacts of climate change such as heat stress, extreme precipitation,inland and coastal flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, and waterscarcity pose risks in urban areas that are amplified by a lack of essentialinfrastructure and services or by living in poor-quality housing and exposedareas. Improving housing and resilient infrastructure systems could

significantly reduce vulnerability and exposure in urban areas.

Radical change within the building sector requires aggressive andsustained policies and actions across the design, construction, andoperation of buildings and their equipment, and will benefit from marketand policy incentives. Advances in technologies, know-how and policyprovide opportunities to stabilize or reduce energy use from buildingsby mid-century. Recent large improvements in performance and costsmake very low energy construction and retrofits economically attractive,sometimes even at net negative costs.

Building codes and appliance standards, if well designed and implemented,have been among the most environmentally and cost effective instruments

for emission reductions. Substantially strengthening these codes, adoptingthem in further jurisdictions, and extending them to more building andappliance types will be key factors in reaching ambitious climate goals andin helping adapt to the changing climate.


Conclusion

For developedcountries, scenarios

indicate that lifestyle

and behavioural

changes could reduce

energy demand by up

to 20% in the short

term and by up to

50% of present levelsby 2050.


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ADAPTATION

The process of djustment to ctul

or expected climte nd its effects.

In humn systems, dpttion seeks

to moderte or void hrm or exploit

beneficil opportunities. In nturl

systems, humn intervention my

fcilitte djustment to expected

climte nd its effects.

BUILDIN ENVELOPE

All of the elements of the outer shell of

building tht mintin dry, heted

or cooled indoor environment nd

fcilitte its climte control.

CLIMATE CHANE

Any significnt chnge in climte

tht persists for n extended period,

typiclly decdes or longer.

CLIMATE IMPACT

The effects of climte chnge on

nturl nd humn systems.

COBENEFITS

The positive effects tht policy or

mesure imed t one objective might

hve on other objectives.

DECARBONISATION

The process by which countries or other

entities im to chieve low-crbon

economy, or by which individuls im to

reduce their crbon emissions.

EMERIN ECONOMIES

Those economies in the low- to middle-

income ctegory tht re dvncing

rpidly nd re integrting with globl

cpitl nd product mrkets.

FINAL ENERY USE

Energy tht hs been clened or refined

or converted to electricity or het, nd

delivered to end-use fcilities, where it

becomes usble energy in supplying

energy services.

REENHOUSE AS

A gs in the tmosphere, of nturl

nd humn origin, tht bsorbs ndemits therml infrred rdition.

Wter vpour, crbon dioxide, nitrous

oxide, methne nd ozone re the

min greenhouse gses in the Erths

tmosphere. Their net impct is to trp

het within the climte system.

MITIATION

A humn intervention to reduce the

sources or enhnce the sinks of

greenhouse gses.

PROJECTION

A potentil future evolution of quntity

or set of quntities, often computed by

model. Projections involve ssumptions

tht my or my not be relized, nd

re therefore subject to substntiluncertinty; they re not predictions.

RENEWABLE ENERY

Any form of energy from solr,

geophysicl or biologicl sources tht

is replenished by nturl processes t

rte tht equls or exceeds its rte

of use.

RESILIENCE

The cpcity of socil, economic,nd environmentl systems to cope

with hzrdous event or trend or

disturbnce, responding or reorgnizing

in wys tht mintin their essentil

function, identity, nd structure.

lossry


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20/20

For more informtion:

E-mail: [email protected]

www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipccwww.bpie.euwww.gbpn.orgwww.wbcsd.org

li

Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further

warming and changes in all components of the climate system.

Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained

reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

IPCC, 2013

Disclaimer:

This publication has been developed and released bythe European Climate Foundation (ECF), the BuildingsPerformance Institute Europe (BPIE), the Global BuildingsPerformance Network (GBPN), the World BusinessCouncil for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and theUniversity of Cambridges Judge Business School (CJBS)and Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL).

This project was initiated and financed by ECF andendorsed by CJBS and CISL.

The family of summaries, of which this report is part,is not meant to represent the entirety of the IPCCs FifthAssessment Report (AR) and they are not official IPCCdocuments. The summaries have been peer-reviewed byexperts both from the business and science communities.The English version constitutes the official version.

About us:

CISL brings together business, government and academiato find solutions to critical sustainability challenges.

CJBS is in the business of transformation. Many of our

academics are leaders in their field, creating new insightand applying the latest thinking to real-world issues.

BPIE is a European not-for-profit think-tank with a focuson independent analysis and knowledge dissemination,supporting evidence-based policy making in the fieldof energy performance in buildings. It delivers policyanalysis, policy advice and implementation support.

GBPN provides decision makers with policy expertiseand technical assistance to advance building energyperformance and realise sustainable built environmentsfor all. We are a globally organised and regionally focused

non-profit organisation active in China, Europe, India,South East Asia and the United States.

WBCSD is a CEO-led organisation of forward-thinkingcompanies that galvanises the global businesscommunity to create a sustainable future for business,society and the environment.

Reproduction and use: The materials can be freely used to advance discussion

on the implications of the AR and consequences for business. The report ismade available to any and all audiences via the Creative Commons License

BY-NC-SA. This document is available for download from the CISL website:

www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc

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IPCC AR5 Implications for Buildings Briefing WEB En

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