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IPCC Emissions IPCC Emissions Scenarios Scenarios P.R. Shukla
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IPCC Emissions Scenarios IPCC Emissions Scenarios IPCC Emissions Scenarios IPCC Emissions Scenarios
P.R. Shukla
Fossil and Industrial COFossil and Industrial CO22 - World - World
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
CO
2 (G
tC)
A1
A2
B1
B2
IS92a
WRE550
S550
Global Cumulative Emissions (1990-2100)Global Cumulative Emissions (1990-2100)
1434
1681
965
1195
1427
928
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
GtC
A1 A2 B1 B2 IS92a WRE550Scenarios
Share in Cumulative (1990 - 2100) Share in Cumulative (1990 - 2100) Global Carbon EmissionsGlobal Carbon Emissions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
A1 A2 B1 B2Scenarios
Sh
are
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Annex 2
Cumulative Emission as % of WRE550Cumulative Emission as % of WRE550
154
181
104
129
37
5649
69
0
50
100
150
200
A1 A2 B1 B2
Year
(%)
% of WRE550
Annex 1 as % of WRE550
Non-Annex 1 Emissions Non-Annex 1 Emissions
A1 Scenario A2 Scenario
Non-Annex 1 Emissions
WRE550 - Annex 1 Emissions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
GtC
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
GtC
B1 Scenario B2 Scenario
Non-Annex 1 Emissions Non-Annex 1 Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
GtC
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
GtC
Non-Annex 1 Emissions
WRE550 - Annex 1 Emissions
Per Capita EmissionsPer Capita EmissionsA1 - Scenario A2 - Scenario
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Ton
of C
arbo
n/Pe
rson
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Ton
of C
arbo
n/Pe
rson
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
Per Capita EmissionsPer Capita Emissions
B2 ScenarioB1 Scenario
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Ton
of C
arbo
n/Pe
rson
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Ton
of C
arbo
n/Pe
rson
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
World GDPWorld GDP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Tri
llio
n U
S$9
0
A1
A2
B1
B2
Per Capita GDPPer Capita GDP
A1 - Scenario A2 - Scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Thou
sand
US$
90
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Thou
sand
US$
90
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
Per Capita GDPPer Capita GDP
B2 ScenarioB1 Scenario
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Thou
sand
US$
90
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Thou
sand
US$
90
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
Sulfur Emissions - WorldSulfur Emissions - World
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Em
issi
on
s
A1 A2 B1 B2
Sulfur Emissions - OECD90Sulfur Emissions - OECD90
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Year
Em
issi
on
s
A1 A2 B1 B2
Sulfur Emissions - REFSulfur Emissions - REF
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Em
issi
on
s
A1 A2 B1 B2
Sulfur Emissions - AsiaSulfur Emissions - Asia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Em
issi
on
s
A1 A2 B1 B2
Sulfur Emissions - ALMSulfur Emissions - ALM
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Em
issi
on
s
A1 A2 B1 B2
Mitigation Cost and Ancillary Mitigation Cost and Ancillary BenefitsBenefits
Analysis for IndiaAnalysis for India
India: Carbon Mitigation India: Carbon Mitigation (1995-2035)
6 billion tons of mitigation below $25/ ton of carbon
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7Carbon Mitigation (billion ton)
Mar
gin
al C
ost
($/
To
n o
f C
arb
on
)
Long Run Marginal Cost of Electricity
0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Rs
. pe
r k
wh
Reference 1 BT (5%) 2 BT (10%)
3 BT (15%) 4 BT (20%) 5 BT (25%)
How Mitigation affects Electricity Price?How Mitigation affects Electricity Price?
How Mitigation affects Production Cost?How Mitigation affects Production Cost?
20152035
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cos
t of
Alu
min
um
Pro
du
ctio
n
ALUMINUM
20152035
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Cos
t of
Ste
el P
rod
uct
ion
STEEL
1 BT (5%) 3 BT (15%) 5 BT (25%)
Cost and Ancillary Benefits of Carbon MitigationCost and Ancillary Benefits of Carbon MitigationCase of IndiaCase of India
Marginal Cost and Ancillary Benefits
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Carbon Mitigation (BTtC)
Billi
on $
Ancillary Benefits Carbon Mitigation Cost Net Cost
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Carbon Mitigation (BTtC)
Billi
on $
Ancillary Benefits Carbon Mitigation Cost Net Cost
Total Cost and Ancillary Benefits
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Carbon Mitigation (BTtC)
$/To
n of
Car
bon
MC $/Ton of Carbon Mar. Ben $/Ton of Carbon
