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IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts

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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change and Impacts Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Safranbolu, 25 March, 2015

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IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportClimate Change and ImpactsRenate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Safranbolu, 25 March, 2015 IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report1Key MessagesHuman influence on the climate system is clear

Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems

The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts

AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report2Humans are changing the climate

YearGlobally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperaturesIt is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th centuryAR5 WGI SPMIPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportGlobal averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data show a warming of 0.85oC over the period of 1880-2012.Total increase between average of 1850-1900 period and 2003-2012 period is 0.78oC.

In West Asia, upward temperature trends are notable and robust in recent decades

3Temperatures continue to rise

YearGlobally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperaturesEach of the past 3 decades has been successively warmer than the preceding decades since 1850

AR5 WGI SPMIPCC AR5 Synthesis Report4


IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report5


IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report6

AR5 SYR SPMIPCC AR5 Synthesis Report7

AR5 SYR SPMIPCC AR5 Synthesis Report8 Antropogenic forcings are extremely likely the cause of warming

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report9Oceans absorb most of the heatMore than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean

Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climbAR5 SYR

Energy (1021 Joules)IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report10Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

Temperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (C)IPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportIn West Asia, upward temperature trends are notable and robust in recent decadesA few examples, while noting that the is substantial inter-annual and decadal variability: Kazahstan 0.31 oC per decade (1936-2005)Tajikistan 0,1-0.2oC per decade (1940-2005)Kyrgistan 1,6oC in 20th century (1901-2000)Afghanistan 0.6 oC in past 50 years (1960-2008) 0.13 oC per decade (1960-2008)Pakistan 0,57oC in 20th century (1901-2000)0,099oC per decade since 1960

Global averaged 0.85oC over the period of 1880-2012.

11Impacts are already underwayTropics to the polesOn all continents and in the oceanAffecting rich and poor countries


IPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportObserved precipitation trends: Kazakhstan no trendKyrgyzstan +6% since mid 20th century Tajikistan Plains insignificant increaseMountains insignificant decrease Turkmenistan increaseAfghanistan decrease -2% per decade

Other observed changes:Kazakhstan browning of steppe and increase in permafrost temperature in Northern Tien Shan Mountains Uzbekistan increase in spring discharge, decrease in summer Changes in surface area of main lakes in the region (mostly decrease)Pakistan earlier plant growth in in Himalaya in springIran coral bleaching

Glaciers: Azerbaijan and Georgia southern Caucasus decrease in total by 31,2% (1895-2000) Central Asia (Altai-Sayan, Pamir, Tien Shan) 1960-2009Area decrease 10% Ice volume decrease 15%

12Projected global average surface temperature change

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report13The choices we make will create different outcomes

With substantial mitigationWithout additional mitigationChange in average surface temperature (19862005 to 20812100)AR5 WGI SPMIPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportCentral Asia is expected to become warmer in the coming decades and increasingly arid, especially in the western parts of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.

14The choices we make will create different outcomesAR5 WGI SPM

Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081-2100) Without additional mitigationWith substantial mitigationIPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportFor much of interior Asia, increases in drought stress, as a result of declining rainfall and/or rising temperatures, are the key concern.15Projected climate changesContinued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate systemGlobal glacier volume will further decreaseGlobal mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st centuryIt is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature risesOceans will continue to warm during the 21st centuryAR5 WGI SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report16Potential impacts of climate changeFood and water shortagesIncreased povertyIncreased displacement of peopleCoastal flooding


IPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportExamples of projected impacts on ECO region

Kazakhstan further advancing of permafrost degradation upwards and northwards

Iran decrease by 50-100% in groundwater recharge in eastern region Eastern Mediterranean decreases of internal water resources

Given the already very high level of water stress in many parts of Central Asia, projected temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the western part of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan could exacerbate the problems of water shortage and distribution.

Uzbekistan - Considering the dependence on irrigated agriculture, which consumes more than 90% of the available water resources of the Amu Darya basin, climate change impacts on river flows would also strongly affect the economy

17Climate change poses risk for food productionPercentage of yield projectionsAR5 SYR SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportAgriculture in the ECO region:

Some parts of the region could be winners:Cereal production in northern and eastern Kazakhstan could benefit from the longer growing season, warmer winters, and a slight increase in winter precipitationothers could be losers:Particularly western Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where frequent droughts could negatively affect cotton production, increase already extremely high water demands for irrigation, and exacerbate the already existing water crisis and human-induced desertification

In Pakistan wheat yield is projected to decrease in Swat district and to increase in Chitral district


Risk Level withCurrent AdaptationRisk LevelVeryLowMedVeryHigh4C2CPresentLong Term(2080-2100)Near Term (2030-2040)Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce RiskRisk Level withHigh AdaptationAssessing risk and adaptation potential 19

Risk Level withCurrent AdaptationPotential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce RiskRisk Level withHigh AdaptationRisk-LevelVeryLowMedVeryHigh4C2CPresentLong Term(2080-2100)Near Term (2030-2040)

Flood Heat DroughtWater Crops DiseaseReefsFlood CoastsHeatFlood

WaterLivelihoods CoastsWildfire Heat FloodEcosystems Health RateWater Food DiseaseCoastsCoral Fisheries20IPCC Fifth Assessment Reportwww.ipcc.ch

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report21