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IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report · PDF file IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Adaptation...

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  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

    Synthesis Report Jan Fuglestvedt, CICERO

    Karen O’Brien, University of Oslo

  • Working Group I WGI

    Working Group II WGII

    Working Group III WGIII

  • Synthesis Report

  • Bredt og åpent internasjonalt samarbeid

  • Bredt og åpent internasjonalt samarbeid

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    AR5 SYR SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    AR5 SYR SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    AR5 SYR SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    AR5 SYR SPM

  • More recent data (1970-2010) and other gases than CO2

  • What factors have driven emission changes?

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Sources of emissions

    Energy production remains the primary sources of GHG emissions

    35% 24% 21% 14%

    6.4%

    2010 GHG emissions

    Energy Sector

    Agriculture,

    forests and

    other land uses

    Industry Transport

    Building

    Sector

    AR5 WGIII SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Causes of climate change

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

  • Causes of climate change

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have

    increased since the pre-industrial era, driven

    largely by economic and population growth, and

    are now higher than ever.

    Their effects, together with those of other

    anthropogenic drivers, have been detected

    throughout the climate system and are extremely

    likely to have been the dominant cause of the

    observed warming since the mid-20th century.

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Impacts are already underway

    • Tropics to the poles • On all continents and in the ocean • Affecting rich and poor countries

    AR5 WGII SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Some of the changes in extreme weather and climate events

    observed since about 1950 have been linked to human influence

    AR5 WGI SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    What is happening in Norway?

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    What about the future?

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Projected climate changes

    Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause

    further warming and changes in the climate system

    AR5 WGI SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Projected climate changes

    Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause

    further warming and changes in the climate system

    Global glacier volume will further decrease

    Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century

    It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises

    Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century

    Ocean acidification will continue.

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Potential Impacts of Climate Change

    • Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods;

    • Systemic risks due to extreme weather events;

    • Risk of loss of ecosystems, biodiversity, and

    ecosystem goods, functions and services;

    • Risk of food and water insecurity. AR5 WGII SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Climate Change Poses Risk for Food Production

    AR5 SYR SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Adaptation to climate change

    Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change

    impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness.

    Some adaptation responses involve significant

    co-benefits, synergies, and trade-offs.

    Increasing climate change will increase

    challenges for many adaptation options.

    AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    We need both adaptation and mitigation

    AR5 WGIII SPM

    Effective adaptation and mitigation responses will depend on policies and measures across multiple scales: regional, national and sub-national.

    Adaptation and mitigation responses are underpinned by common enabling factors

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C

    Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions

    reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C

    Implementing reductions in GHG emissions poses

    substantial technological, economic, social, and

    institutional challenges

    But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the

    challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C

    AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Mitigation Measures

    More efficient use of energy

    Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy • Many of these technologies exist today

    Improved carbon sinks • Reduced deforestation and improved forest management

    and planting of new forests

    • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

    Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM

  • RCPs

    This assumes that there will be no major volcanic eruptions or changes in some natural sources (e.g., CH4 and N2O), or unexpected changes in total solar irradiance.

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes

    With substantial

    mitigation

    Without additional

    mitigation

    Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.

    AR5 WGIII SPM

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.

    ~3°C

    AR5 WGIII SPM

  • Key characteristics of the scenarios collected and assessed for WGIII

  • Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.

    „immediate action“

  • Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.

  • Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.

  • Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C.

    „immediate action“

    „delayed mitigation“

  • Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C.

  • Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C.

    Based on Figures 6.32 and 7.16

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Implications for sustainable development

    ➜ Climate change is a threat to equitable

    and sustainable development

    ➜ Strategies and actions can be pursued

    now that will move towards climate-resilient

    pathways for sustainable development

    ➜ at the same time helping to improve livelihoods, social and economic well-being, and effective environmental management.

    AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM

  • The window for action is rapidly closing

    65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used

    Amount Used

    1870-2011:

    515 GtC

    Amount

    Remaining:

    275 GtC

    Total Carbon

    Budget:

    790 GtC

    Fossil carbon reserves exceed this remaining budget by a factor of 4 to 7, with resources much larger still.

  • IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Synthesis is essential !

    AR5 WGIII SPM

    A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in

    greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks

  • The risks from climate change, assessed by the WGII of the IPCC AR5, and aggregated in five “Reasons for Concerns”

    Levels of risk across the Reasons for Concern can be associated with

    a level of global temperature change.

    Here shown for a warming by 2oC

  • The link between cumulative CO2 emissions and global mean temperature

    The pink plume is from WGI complex models.

    It includes the uncertainty from non-CO2 gases and climate and carbon cycle uncertainty, using the likely

    range

  • Levels of risks can be connected to cumulative CO2 emission levels, for the average climate response, for high climate sensitivity (lower cumulative emissions), and for low climate

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