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IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report Key Messages ... IPCC Fifth Assessment Report IPCC AR5...

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  • 1/21/2015

    1

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

    Synthesis Report

    Climatic Extremes and Disasters in Asia Vietnam

    22nd January

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Key Messages

    ➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear

    ➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we

    risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts

    ➜ We have the means to limit climate change and

    build a more prosperous, sustainable future

    AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM

  • 1/21/2015

    2

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Observed changes in the climate system

    • The oceans have warmed and

    risen

    • The amounts of snow and ice

    have diminished

    • Sea level has risen

    • The concentrations of greenhouse

    gases have increased

    Climate change is unequivocal

    IPCC AR5 WGI

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Some of the changes in extreme weather and climate events

    observed since about 1950 have been linked to human influence

    AR5 WGI SPM

    Impacts are already

    underway in a number of

    regions:

    • decrease in cold

    temperature extremes

    • increase in warm

    temperature extremes

    • increase in extreme

    high sea levels

    • increase in the number

    of heavy precipitation

    events

    IPCC AR5 WGI

  • 1/21/2015

    3

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Observed changes in Asia

    • Increasing numbers of warm days and

    decreasing numbers of cold days

    • Precipitation trends including extremes are

    characterized by strong variability

    • Increasing and decreasing precipitation trends

    in different parts and seasons of Asia

    • Widespread damage to coral reefs linked with

    episodes of high sea-surface temperature in

    recent decades

    • Asia experienced the highest number of

    climate-related disasters in the world from

    2000-2008 and suffered 27.5% of the total

    global economic loss.

    Warming trends and increasing temperature extremes have been observed

    across most of the Asian region over the past century.

    IPCC AR5 WGII

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    EXTREME EVENTS DURING AND BY THE END OF THE 21ST CENTURY

    It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or

    heat waves will increase over most land areas.

    Under some scenarios, a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-

    2 year event in most regions.

    It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total

    rainfall from heavy falls will increase over many areas of the globe.

    IPCC SREX

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    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Abrupt and irreversible impacts

    Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if

    emissions of CO2 are stopped.

    • Sustained mass loss by ice sheets

    (some of which irreversible) would

    cause larger sea level rise.

    • Sustained warming greater than

    some threshold (greater than about

    1°C but less than about 4°C global mean warming with respect

    to pre-industrial) would lead to the

    near-complete loss of the

    Greenland ice sheet over a

    millennium or more, causing a

    global mean sea level rise of up to

    7 m.

    IPCC AR5 WGII

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Climate Change Poses Risk for Food Production

    AR5 SYR SPM

  • 1/21/2015

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    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Impacts on human health

    Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases

    in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low

    income. Increased likelihood of:

    • Injury, disease, and

    death due to more

    intense heat waves

    and fires.

    • Under-nutrition from

    diminished food

    production in poor

    regions.

    • Risks from food- and

    water- and vector-

    borne diseases.

    IPCC AR5 WGII

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Impacts on Human Security

    Climate change over the 21st

    century can increase:

    • Displacement of people,

    particularly in developing

    countries with low income.

    • Risks of violent conflicts by

    amplifying poverty and

    economic shocks.

    • Rivalry among states due to

    potential transboundary

    impacts of climate change,

    such as changes in sea ice,

    shared water resources, and

    pelagic fish stocks.

    IPCC AR5 WGII

  • 1/21/2015

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    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Future risks of climate change in Asia

    • Water scarcity is expected to be a major

    challenge due to increased water demand

    and lack of good management

    • Higher temperatures can lead to lower rice

    yields. A number of regions are already near

    the heat stress limits for rice.

    • Sea level rise will inundate low lying areas

    and especially affect rice growing regions.

    • Coastal and marine systems are under

    increasing stress from climatic and non-

    climatic drivers

    • Damage to coral reefs will increase during

    the 21st century as a result of ocean

    warming and acidification.

    IPCC AR5 WGII

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Future risks of climate change in Asia

    • Adverse effects on the

    sustainable development

    capabilities of most Asian

    developing countries by

    aggravating pressures on

    natural resources and the

    environment.

    • Increasing impact of extreme

    events on human health,

    security, livelihoods, and

    poverty, with the type and

    magnitude of impact varying

    across Asia.

    IPCC AR5 WGII

  • 1/21/2015

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    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Climate-related hazards exacerbate other stressors, often with negative

    outcomes for livelihoods, especially for people living in poverty.

    Throughout the 21st century,

    climate-change impacts are

    projected to:

    • Slow down economic growth

    • Make poverty reduction

    more difficult

    • Further erode food security

    • Prolong existing and create

    new poverty traps,

    particularly in urban areas

    and emerging hotspots of

    hunger

    Implications for development:

    IPCC AR5 WGII

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Fatalities are higher in developing countries

    From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in

    developing countries

    IPCC SREX

  • 1/21/2015

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    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    For exposed and vulnerable communities, even non-extreme

    weather and climate events can have extreme impacts

     Africa’s largest recorded

    cholera outbreak

    • Over 90,000 affected

    • Over 4,000 killed

    • Began following onset of

    seasonal rains

    • Vulnerability

    and exposure increased

    risk

    IPCC SREX

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    “Climate-resilient pathways combine adaptation and

    mitigation to reduce climate change and its impacts. Since

    mitigation reduces the rate and magnitude of warming, it

    also increases the time available for adaptation to a

    particular level of climate change, potentially by several

    decades.”

    Adaptation and Mitigation

    IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

    IPCC AR5 WGII

  • 1/21/2015

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    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    There are strategies that can help manage disaster risk now and

    also help improve people’s livelihoods and well-being

    The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the

    relatively near term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term.

    IPCC SREX

    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Effective risk management and adaptation are tailored to local and

    regional needs and circumstances

    • Changes in climate extremes vary across regions

    • Each region has unique vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards

    • Effective risk management and adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure and

    vulnerability

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    IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

    Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C

    Measures exist to achieve the substantial emission reductions required to limit

    likely warming to 2°C (40-70% reduction in GHGs globally by 2050 and near zero or below emissions levels in 2100)

    A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in

    greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks

    Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses substantial

    technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges

    Ambitious mitigation is affordable and translates in

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