+ All Categories
Home > Documents > IPCC: From climate change adaptation assessment to...

IPCC: From climate change adaptation assessment to...

Date post: 08-Jul-2018
Category:
Upload: phungdien
View: 216 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
19
IPCC: From climate change adaptation assessment to action and back again ? Mark Howden, Steven Crimp, Lilly LimCamacho and AnneMaree Dowd, John Porter and other AR5 Chapter 7 authors ClimateSmart Agriculture Conference, 16 March 2015 AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP
Transcript

IPCC: From climate change adaptation assessment to action and back again ?Mark Howden, Steven Crimp, Lilly Lim‐Camacho and Anne‐Maree Dowd, John Porter and other AR5 Chapter 7 authors

ClimateSmart Agriculture Conference, 16 March 2015

AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP

FUTURE IMPACTS?

Aspiration: Climate change impacts and adaptation on food systems and value chains

CURRENT IMPACTS Sudden 

demand for alternative product stream

Less predictable farming 

conditions

Road closures and 

disruptions

Increased energy costs

Increased demand for low‐carbon products

Increased fuel costs

Non‐viable farming regions

Worker heat stress

Increased pressures for low‐carbon

New varieties; variation in quality

Lim Camacho et al. 2014

Crop

Cultural acceptability

Traditional knowledge

Social networks

Agronomic adaptation

Mitigation interactions

Adoption paths

Policy

Adaptive capacity

Economics

Stability

ProductionLivestock

Impacts

Transformation

Systemic adaptationTrade

Nutrition

Water resources

Value chain

Vulnerability

Institutional change

Belief systems

Communication

Crop production

Cultural acceptability

Traditional knowledge

Social networks

Agronomic adaptation

Mitigation interactions

Adoption paths

Policy

Adaptive capacity

Economics

Stability

Livestock

Impacts

Transformation

Systemic adaptation

Trade

Nutrition

Water resources

Value chain

Vulnerability

Institutional change

Belief systems

Communication Pests, diseases, weeds

Uncertainty

Selection

Climate change is already affecting yields

IPCC SPM 2014

Climate changes affecting crops differently

Porter et al. 2014

More negative and less positive over time 

Porter et al. 2014

Future impacts vary by region, adaptation important

Challinor et al. 2014

• Limited range of adaptations assessed• Largely missing increased variability, pest/disease changes etc

Crops differ in response

Challinor et al. 2014

Different adaptations, different effectiveness

Porter et al. 2014

Management option Benefit (%) from adapting

Cultivar adjustment (n=56) 23

Planting date adjustment (n=19) 3

Planting date and cultivar adjustment (n=152) 17

Irrigation optimisation (n=17) 3

Fertiliser optimisation (n=10) 1

• Limited more by the capacity of the models to represent system change than the capacity of the system to be changed

Yield variability likely to increase

Porter et al. 2014

IPCC WG2 SPM coverage of crop vs livestock

Howden 2014

IPCC WG2 ‘Food Security’ chapter coverage

Howden 2014

IPCC WG2 ‘Regional’ chapter coverage

Howden 2014

Impact on operating profit: grazing

Drier to wetter sites

Moore and Ghahramani (2013)

• Included ‘stacked’ adaptations

Perceived vulnerability of value chain components

Lim-Camacho et al. 2014

Identifying adaptation options across value chains and upstream and downstream effects

Lim-Camacho et al. 2014, Plaganyi et al. 2014

• Lots written about potential impacts, a smaller but growing literature about adaptation

• Very little on actual implementation and almost nothing on evaluation of adaptation actions

• Makes it difficult to complete the learning loop• Similarly, lots written about barriers to

adaptation but little about practically overcoming these

• Few studies that integrate adaptation, mitigation and food security

Moving from assessment to action

Berrang-Ford et al. 2011, Bierbaum et al. 2014, Rosenstock et al. 2015

• Impacts and adaptation highly contextual• Adaptation important, likely to be increasingly so• Address more than incremental changes, using

stakeholder-relevant metrics• Look at value chains and other food system

dimensions• Focus more on implementation and evaluation

using action research to close the learning loop (include social science and institutional analysis)

• Integrate better with mitigation and other key decision-drivers

Summary


Recommended