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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Gaetano Leone - Jonathan Lynn IPCC Secretariat Geneva, Switzerland 13 February 2014 IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report
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Page 1: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

Gaetano Leone - Jonathan LynnIPCC Secretariat

Geneva, Switzerland

13 February 2014

IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report

IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report

Page 2: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure

Page 3: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Science Governments

Development of the WGI Outline

Approval of the WGI Outline

Nomination and Selection of Experts

Zero Order DraftInformal Review

First Order DraftExpert Review

Government ReviewSecond Order DraftExpert Review

Final Draft Government Review

Acceptance and Approval of the Report

Lead Authors

2011

2010

2012

2013

Election of Bureaux2009

2008

Sept2013

The Process for IPCC Working Group I

Page 4: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Key SPM Messages

19 Headlineson less than 2 Pages

4

2009: WGI Outline Approved

14 ChaptersAtlas of Regional Projections

54,677 Review Commentsby 1089 Experts

2010: 259 Authors Selected

Summary for Policymakers~14,000 Words

Page 5: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Warming in the climate systemis unequivocal

Human influence on the climate system is clear

Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of

greenhouse gas emissions

Page 6: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.1

a)

Page 7: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Warming in the climate system is unequivocal

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.1

b)

Page 8: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Fig. SPM.3

Warming in the climate system is unequivocal

Page 9: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Human influence on the climate system is clear

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.6

)

Page 10: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C

relative to 1850 for all scenarios

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.7

a)

Page 11: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.1

0)

Page 12: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

TS T

FE.1

, Fig

. 2

The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, [...]

© IPCC

 2013

Change in water cycle properties from 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 in RCP8.5

Page 13: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)

Atlas of Global and Regionale Climate Projections

42 global Climate Models 35 Regions 2 Variables

Temperature, Precipitation

4 ScenariosRCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5

2 SeasonsDec-Feb, Jun-Aug (Temperature)Apr-Sept, Oct-Mar (Precipitation)

Maps for 3 Time Horizons2016-35, 2046-65, 2081-2100Reference Period 1986-2005

Fig.

AI.3

, Fin

al D

raft

7. J

une

Mod

ified

from

Fig

. AI.4

, Fin

al D

raft

7. J

une

Page 14: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections

Printed PublicationWGI AR5 Annex I, RCP4.583 Pages

Electronic Supplement 4 RCPs, additionalAnnual mean, all 4 Seasons for Temperature4 x 153 Pages

Atlas DataElectronically available as part of today’s release (30. Jan 2014)

Fig.

AI.3

IPC

C 2

013

Page 15: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Extreme weather and climate events (not part of Atlas)

The AR5 builds upon the 2012 IPCC special report on Extreme Events (SREX).

A comprehensive summary of the assessment of extreme weather and climate events is provided in the WGI Summary for Policymakers Table 1 and in the Technical Summary, TFE.9.

Table SPM.1 (page 5)

© IP

CC

201

3

Page 16: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

Remaining AR5 components:Calendar of approval sessions

Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityIPCC Working Group II (Yokohama, Japan): 25-29 March 2014

Mitigation of Climate ChangeIPCC Working Group III (Berlin, Germany):7-11 April 2014

Synthesis Report(Copenhagen, Denmark):27-31 October 2014

Page 17: IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure. Science Governments

© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

www.climatechange2013.orgwww.climatechange2013.orgFurther InformationFurther Information

www.ipcc.ch


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