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IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

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IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs. Inertia in climate, ecological and socio-economic systems Impact of stabilization scenarios on climate and corresponding impacts Abrupt, high impact threshold/ non-linear events. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs Inertia in climate, ecological and socio-economic systems Impact of stabilization scenarios on climate and corresponding impacts Abrupt, high impact threshold/ non-linear events
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Page 1: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

IPCC Synthesis ReportPart III - David Griggs

• Inertia in climate, ecological and socio-economic systems

• Impact of stabilization scenarios on climate and corresponding impacts

• Abrupt, high impact threshold/ non-linear events

Page 2: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Inertia is a widespread characteristic of climate, ecological and socio-economic systems

• Time scale is the time taken for a perturbation in a process to show at least half of its final effect

• Inertia means a delay, slowness, or resistance in the response of climate, biological, or human systems to factors that alter their rate of change, including continuation of change in the system after the cause of that change has been removed

Page 3: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

There is a wide range of time scales associated with the climate, ecological and socio-economic systems

Page 4: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

There are fast and slow processes in the carbon cycle

Page 5: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of

land ice and ice sheets

Page 6: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

CO2 concentrations, temperature and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced

Page 7: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require emissions reductions globally

Stabilization Level (ppm)

Date for Global emissions to peak

Date for global emissions to fall below current levels

450 2005-2015 2000-2040

550 2020-2030 2030-2100

650 2030-2045 2055-2145

750 2050-2060 2080-2180

1000 2065-2090 2135-2270

These dates are associated with CO2 stabilization alone – stabilization of CO2 equivalent concentrations need to occur even earlier because of the contribution of the non- CO2 greenhouse gases

Page 8: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Constant emissions of CO2 do not lead to stabilization of atmospheric concentrations

Page 9: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Global terrestrial net uptake of carbon peaks during the 21st century then levels off or declines

Page 10: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

The 1:1 relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions can be de-linked

Page 11: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Historical rates of changes in energy intensity are consistent with those needed for stabilization of CO2 concentrations from 450-1000 ppm

Historical rates of changes in carbon intensity are far slower than those needed for stabilization of CO2 concentrations from 450-1000 ppm.

Page 12: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will require significant emissions

reductions

Page 13: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

There is a wide band of uncertainty in the amount of warming that would result from any stabilised

concentration of greenhouse gasesTemperature change relative to 1990 (C) 10

9

8

7

6

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3

2

1

0450 550 650 750 850 950 1000

Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)

Temperature change in the year 2100

Temperature change relative to 1990 (C ) 10

9

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6

5

4

3

2

1

0450 550 650 750 850 950 1000

Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)

Temperature change at equilibrium

Page 14: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

The risks of climate change damages increase with the magnitude of climate change

Page 15: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Some climate, ecological and socio-economic system changes are effectively irreversible over

many human lifetimes, and others are intrinsically irreversible

• The thermohaline circulation

• Ice sheets

• Migration of plant species

Page 16: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

The themohaline circulation could be disrupted by climate change

Page 17: IPCC Synthesis Report Part III - David Griggs

Adaptation is a necessary strategy to complement climate change mitigation efforts

• Adaptation and mitigation can contribute to sustainable development objectives

• Mitigation actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would lessen the pressure on natural and human systems

• The lower the level of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations the greater the benefits in terms of avoided damage

• Comprehensive, quantitative estimates of the benefits of stabilization at various levels do not yet exist

• The lower the magnitude and rate of change, the less chance there is of crossing thresholds


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