IPL 2010

6 games to go

SITUATION

• Mumbai Indians are definitely in• RCB is almost certainly in

– There is no scenario in which they are directly eliminated– And they are likely to win any NRR battles

• Everyone else can make it– Yes. Even KXP.

• Everyone else can also not make it• 6 games to go

– That means 64 possible combinations– Assuming no match is abandoned

• Each match can go either way– 50% chance for each team to win

THE 6 GAMES

HOW MANY TEAMS WILL BE IN CONTENTION FOR THE 4 SEMI-FINAL SPOTS?

• Only a 20% probability that NRR will not matter in deciding semi-final spots

• Nearly 50% chance that 3 teams will be eliminated at the end of the league stage (most likely)

• 2 scenarios, where all 8 teams will have a chance

EARLIER (8 GAMES TO GO)

HOW MANY TEAMS WILL BATTLE ON NRR FOR HOW MANY SLOTS?

• The most likely situation is that 2 teams will make it and 3 others will fight it out for the remaining 2 slots.

• Followed by 3 getting thru and 2 teams battling for last spot

• There are 2 scenarios in which 3 teams make it and 5 battle for last spot (5 for 1)– Which means all 8 teams are

involved

What are the chances for each team?

• MI is assured of top place anyway• RCB & DD cannot get eliminated outright• CSK & RR have a nearly 50% chance of getting eliminated outright

• The “nearly” means that even if they lose their last game there are 2 NRR scenarios.

A CLOSER LOOK - RCB

• RCB cannot get eliminated outright• And they are nearly sure to win NRR battles vs. RR, DC, KKR & KXP• Thus they are virtually in.

• Unless they get into NRR battles with CSK and/or DD

• So, which are the worst case scenarios for RCB?

• RCB supporters should cheer for a KXP win against DC today

A CLOSER LOOK - DD

• DD, like RCB, cannot get eliminated outright• But they blew a chance to increase their NRR yesterday• They would thus prefer to get in outright

• If they beat DC, then they are in outright

• Even if they lose to DC, they can get in outright in these cases…

• So DD fans can relax for 2 games and then start praying

A CLOSER LOOK - CSK

• CSK lost yesterday but managed to maintain its NRR• So they are still likely to go through if they win against KXP• There are 2 scenarios in which they go through outright…

• Can CSK get thru on NRR if they lose against KXP?• Yes, they can. Click to see Table 2

TABLE 1

A CLOSER LOOK - CSK

• CSK lost yesterday but managed to maintain its NRR• So they are still likely to go through if they win against KXP• There are 2 scenarios in which they go through outright…

• Can CSK get thru on NRR if they lose against KXP?• Yes, they can. Click to see Table 2

TABLE 1

• It’s the same set of results• So CSK fans have their task cut-out.

• They have an interest in every game except RCB vs MI

TABLE 2

A CLOSER LOOK - RR

• RR can get in even if they lose their last game (2 scenarios) but their NRR makes it highly improbable

• Even if RR wins its last game its NRR may pull it down • They need to get in outright. 4 scenarios for this…

• So, apart from RR beating KKR, RR fans will want KXP to win both its matches and DD to beat DC

A CLOSER LOOK – KKR & KXP

• KKR’s chances have increased by 3% after the last 2 games• But with their NRR, they would prefer getting thru outright• There are 2 scenarios for this…

• KXP still has 2 scenarios where they can get in with NRR• Click to see Table 2

TABLE 1

A CLOSER LOOK – KKR & KXP

• KKR’s chances have increased by 3% after the last 2 games• But with their NRR, they would prefer getting thru outright• There are 2 scenarios for this…

• KXP still has 2 scenarios where they can get in with NRR• Click to see Table 2

TABLE 1

• So KKR fans and KXP fans (if there are any left), will be cheering the same teams up to the last game. And then they can fight.

TABLE 2

A CLOSER LOOK - DC

• DC has both games left. So there are too many possibilities• Let’s just look at what happens if DC beats KXP, but loses to DD

• On form this is probably the likely scenario

• Once DC beats KXP, they can’t be eliminated outright• But if they lose to DD, they would prefer not getting into NRR battles

• There are 2 scenarios where they still get in outright…

CHEERING CHART

• As of now, KXP seems to be everybody’s darling

THANKS

• Next update after 3 more games• If you have any questions, do leave a comment• If you want to tinker with the stuff yourself, write to me at

rameshsrivatsATgmailDOTcom and I’ll send you the excel file