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Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

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Ira Sohn Contest 2012 Andrew Diaz
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Page 1: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Ira Sohn Contest 2012 Andrew Diaz

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Page 2: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Disclaimer 2

  Please note that this presentation and the information contained herein represents my own personal views and not the views of Prudential Financial, Prudential Capital Group or any affiliates.

  The information contained in this presentation is based solely on publicly available information

  This presentation and the information contained herein is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

  This presentation contains historical and anticipated operating performance, as well as discussions on access to capital markets, market conditions and the values of assets and liabilities of certain companies. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.

Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Page 3: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

WebMD Health Corp (“WebMD”) 3

  WebMD is a provider of health information services online to:   Consumers   Physicians   Employers and Health Plans

  Market Value of Equity ~$1.1 billion   Enterprise Value of ~$0.9 billion

  Recent stock price: $21.431

  Ticker: “WBMD” (1) As of close 05/15/2012

Pro Forma for 5.77 million shares purchased @ $26 per for an aggregate cash use of $150 million on 4/10/12. Source: Company 10Q filed on 5/10/12

Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Page 4: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Strong Collection of Online Brands 4

Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Page 5: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Investment Highlights 5

Source: WebMD 10-K for the year ended 12/31/11, eMarketer April 2011

Strong Catalysts for Realization Within 6 – 12 Months

Secular Winner

  110 million unique users; 2.6 million physicians   #1 player with ~40% market share

  Favorable long-term trends for online pharma ad spending   Projected to grow at 13% CAGR to ~$2 billion by 2015

  Poison pill expires on November 1, 2012   Upsize to existing $86 million share repurchase program   Normalization of ad spending

Strong Competitive Advantages

Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Page 6: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Why Does it Trade at ~$22 Today? 6

  Failed Sales Process   Temporary decline in pharmaceutical ad spending during 2012

  FDA regulations for online advertising TBD   Patent expirations (e.g. Lipitor ~$10 billion)

Failed Sales Process

Source: Yahoo! Finance, SEC Schedule 13D filed on 10/11/2011

$0

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$70

WebMD 5 Year Stock Price

Icahn Reveals ~8% Stake

Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Page 7: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Public Portal 7

  ~110 million users / ~10 billion page views   User is already engaged in researching ADHD

Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Page 8: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Physicians Portal 8

  ~2.6 million physicians

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Page 9: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Private Portal 9

Company Name

Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Page 10: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Pharmaceutical Ad Spending 10

Source: eMarketer, April 2011 & CSD Promotion Database

  North American Market of $28 billion is roughly 1/3 of promotional spending in the world

  Online spending is anticipated to reach ~$2 billion by 2015

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Page 11: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Pharma Relying Less on Sales Reps 11

  Secular decline of U.S. sales reps   105K peaked in 2005, ~75K by 2015   Physician Payments Sunshine Act, 2013

Source: IMS Health, The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 2015 & Wall Street Journal, Drugs Reps Soften Their Sales Pitches Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Page 12: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Long-Term Shift Towards Online Advertising 12

  ~$28 billion Total Advertising   ~$1 billion market size

Source: CSD Promotion Database

  ~$14 billion Total Advertising   ~$4 billion market size

2011 Market Size 2020 Projected Market Size

3.6%

96.4%

29%

71%

2011 % Online Advertising of Total Budget 2020 % Online Advertising of Total Budget

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Page 13: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Historical Financials 13

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LTM 3/30Public Portal Advertising $238,022 $284,416 $347,570 $446,969 $477,325 $454,738% Growth 19.5% 22.2% 28.6% 6.8% -4.7%

Unique Monthly Users (Millions) 51 51 61 83 85 110% Growth 0.0% 19.6% 36.1% 2.4% 29.4%

Revenues Per User $4.67 $5.58 $5.70 $5.39 $5.62 $4.13EBITDA Per User $1.08 $1.46 $1.84 $2.09 $2.13 $1.41

Private Portal Services $81,210 $89,046 $90,966 $87,500 $81,450 $79,375% Growth 9.6% 2.2% -3.8% -6.9% -2.5%

Total Revenues $319,232 $373,462 $438,536 $534,469 $558,775 $534,113% Growth 17.0% 17.4% 21.9% 4.5% -4.4%

WebMD Health Corp

Source: Company 10Ks and 10Qs

  ~15% Revenue CAGR since 2007

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Page 14: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Historical Financials Cont’d 14

  ~12% Free Cash Flow Yield   ~5.8x LTM EBITDA and ~7.8x NTM EBITDA Source: Company 10Ks and 10Qs

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LTM 3/30EBITDAA 54,969 74,255 112,274 173,618 181,238 154,631% Margin 17.2% 19.9% 25.6% 32.5% 32.4% 29.0%

Less Capex (19,041) (24,265) (17,886) (32,254) (20,911) (19,439)Less Work ing Capital B (34,317) 2,298 8,444 (12,893) 8,052 15,042Free Cash Flow 1,611 52,288 102,832 128,471 168,379 150,234Less Interest Expense (25,887) (26,428) (23,515) (11,453) (20,645) (23,340)Cash EarningsC (24,276) 25,860 79,317 117,018 147,734 126,894

ROIC D 4% 5% 15% 25% 27%

(A) Defined as operating income + D&A + non-cash stock based comp

(B) Defined as change in AR + Prepaid - Accrued - Deferred Revenue

(C) Excludes taxes due to the Company's NOLs

(D) Defined as EBIT Taxed @ 35% / (Total Assets - Current Liabilities - Cash)

WebMD Health Corp

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Page 15: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Attractive Valuation With Limited Downside 15

  Conservative DCF ~$31 per share   ~$530 million revenues per year & 20% EBITDA margin   Market share falls from ~40% to ~20% while industry

grows at a 13% CAGR   12% Cost of Capital and 2% Terminal Growth

Source: Company 10Ks and 10Qs Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent

Company WebMD (WBMD) Epocrates (EPOC) HealthStream (HSTM)

DescriptionWebMD is a provider of health

information services to consumers, physicians and employers.

Epocrates provides healthcare information services primarily in the mobile space to 1.4 million physician

members.

HealthStream provides learning and research solutions for the healthcare

industry.

LTM Revenues (000s) $534,113 $111,700 $87,234LTM EBITDA (000s ) $154,631 $9,503 $17,865EV / LTM EBITDAA 5.8x 11.7x 25.5xEV / LTM RevenuesA 1.7x 1.0x 5.2x5 Year Revenue CAGR 15% 15% 19%

(A) As of close 05/15/2012

Relevant Comps

Page 16: Ira sohn contest 2012 andrew diaz web md

Additional Upside Opportunities 16

  ~$250 million NPV of Federal NOLs  ~$5 per share  May remain in CoC according to management

  Monetize Mobile Growth  11.5 million consumer app downloads  2.0 million physician app downloads

  International Opportunities  French and German physician sites

Source: WebMD 10-K for the year ended 12/31/11, WebMD Conference Call Transcripts Not for Further Distribution Without My Express Consent


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