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PERFORMANCE OF GLOBAL STOCK
MARKET INTEGRATION: EMPIRICAL
EVIDENCE FROM BRICS STOCK
MARKET
MOHAMMAD IRFAN
RESEARCH SCHOLAR
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CENTRAL UNIVERSITY HARYANA, MAHENDERGARH, HARYANA
OBJECTIVES
INDICESBRAZIL
RUSSIA
INDIA
CHINA
SOUTH AFRICA
The present paper is focused on examining the risk and
return behavior and Multiple Correlation has been
computed for the selected stock market The
IBOVESPA(Brazil), MICEX(Russia), BSE-Sensex
(India), SSE Composite index (China), The
FTSE/JSE(South Africa) from (1st Jan 2007 to 30th Sept
2013).
OBJECTIVES
To analysis the performance of Brazil, Russia,
India, China, South Africa Stock Market.
To analysis the co-integration of Indian stock
market with other selected indices and vice versa.
To find out the integration of Indian stock market
by volatility of selected indices and vice versa.
To do comparative analysis between Brazil, Russia,
India, China, South Africa stock markets.
INTRODUCTION
BRICS is the acronym for an association of five major
emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India,
China and South Africa. Economists have determined
that these countries could rank among the world’s
dominant economies by mid century, based on gross
domestic product. BRICS will a accelerate world’s
economic growth. The present study is being
contemplated with the objective of studying the degree
of stock market integration.
INTRODUCTION
BRICS are growing countries in the world. It is typically
rendered as “the BRIC economies" or the "Big Four". It has
been replaced by BRICS since the 2010 inclusion of South
Africa in the bloc. More modestly, Goldman Sachs has argued
that, although the four BRIC countries are developing rapidly,
it was only by 2050 that their combined economies could of the
current richest countries of the world. In 2010, however, while
the four BRIC countries accounted for over a quarter of the
world's land area and more than 40% of the world's population,
they accounted for only one quarter of the world gross national
income.
INTRODUCTION
BRICS HELPS TO WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH
The BRICS countries acted as a loyal partner during the drafting of
decisions, starting with the Framework for Strong, Sustainable and
Balanced Growth and Financing for Investment, Vadim Lukov said that
The Ambassador also drew attention to the fact that, in 2011-2013, the
BRICS economies posted an average growth rate of 4.11%, as compared
to the 1.37% average growth rate of developed countries. "This means
that the BRICS countries remain an important driving force of global
economic growth, and that their role in the global economy, including all
the G20 economies, continues to increase," he said. The BRICS
countries have accumulated tremendous foreign currency reserves and
practice in implementing reforms, and they continue to improve their
mutual coordination in the financial and economic sphere.
INTRODUCTION
BRICS countries to remain engines for global economic
growth
BRICS countries are growing in the world wide in terms of
manufacturing, marketing, Legislation Management,
consumer durable product, technical product, construction,
politics, employment and financial activities.
INTRODUCTION
THE TEN LARGEST ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD
IN 2050
There is ten largest economies in world in 2050
continuously ranks from first to ten countries. There are
China, UnitedState, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia,
Indonesia, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany.
The ten largest economies in the world in 2050, measured in
GDP according to Goldman Sachs
Output Growth Forecast – 2013
Source: WEO March 2013, IMF
8.2
6.0
4.0 3.8 3.53.0 2.8
2.1 2.01.5 1.2 1.1 0.9
0.4 0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Output growth 2013 - WEO IMF (March 2013)
INTRODUCTION
BRAZIL STOCK MARKET (BOVESPA)
The IBOVESPA is a major stock market index which
tracks the performance of around 50 most liquid stocks
traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange in Brazil. It is a
gross total return weighted index. The index has a base
value of BRL 100 as of January 2, 1968. Since 1968, The
Bovespa Index has been adjusted 11 times by a factor of
100 in 1983 and by factor of 10 in 1985, 1988, 1989,
1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1997.
7.4
2.0
4.0
5.8
4.5
3.13.7 3.5
1966-80 1981-2003 2004-2009 2010-2015 (*)
Brazil World
Brazil has resumed growth after a long hibernation, and is bound to grow
above the global average over the coming years
Economic performance of Brazil
Brazil: Economic indicators 2013
3.9 4.7 4.6
8.5
21.5 20.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
Outputgrowth
Finaldomesticdemand
Privateconsumption
Fixedinvestment
Exports Imports
Source: Citi Research (August 2012)
Risks
China/Asia slowdown
Stagnation in the US and Europe
Protectionism, uncertainties and market
distortions created by unconventional policies
Tightening of international credit
13
The Way Forward – Challenges
Accelerate labor productivity
Increase savings and investments
Improve competitiveness in manufacturing
Tackle infrastructure bottlenecks
Accelerate the transition towards a knowledge-based
economy
14
INTRODUCTION
RUSSIA STOCK MARKET (MICEX)
Stocks in Russia had a positive performance during the last month.
Russia Stock Market (MICEX), rallied 69 points or 4.82 percent
during the last 30 days. From 1997 until 2013, Russia Stock Market
(MICEX) averaged 855 Index points reaching an all time high of
1970 Index points in December of 2007 and a record low of 19 Index
points in October of 1998. The MICEX is a major stock market
index which tracks the performance of 30 largest and most liquid
Russian companies from 10 main economy sectors, listed on The
Moscow Stock Exchange. It is a capitalization-weighted composite
index. The MICEX has a base value of 100 as of September 22,
1997.
Economic Challenges
There is widespread pollution in Russia. A few
examples are:
A. Oil spills from poorly maintained pipelines.
B. Radioactive waste from nuclear power plants
and nuclear submarines.
C. Air pollution from factories with poor air
quality standards.
World performance of GDP
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. China
Japan Japan China China China U.S.
Germany Germany Japan Japan India India
U.K. China Germany India Japan Japan
France U.K. U.K. Russia Russia Brazil
Italy France India U.K. Brazil Russia
China Italy France Germany U.K. U.K.
Brazil India Russia France Germany Germany
India Russia Italy Brazil France France
Russia Brazil Brazil Italy Italy Italy
17
(Country GDP Rank in Billions of Real (2003) U.S. Dollars)
Source: Global Insight World Service and Goldman Sachs, 2006
INTRODUCTION
INDIA STOCK MARKET (SENSEX)
Stocks in India had a positive performance during the last month.
India Stock Market (SENSEX), rallied 875 points or 4.43 percent
during the last 30 days. From 1979 until 2013, India Stock Market
(SENSEX) averaged 5852 Index points reaching an all time high of
21005 Index points in November of 2010 and a record low of 113
Index points in December of 1979. The SENSEX (BSE30) is a major
stock market index which tracks the performance of 30 major
companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The companies are
chosen based on the liquidity, trading volume and industry
representation. The SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-
weighted index. The Index has a base value of 100 as of 1978-79.
Indian Market performance
World’s largest producer of milk, and second-largest
producer of wheat and rice
6,600 companies on the Bombay Stock Exchange
World’s second-largest pharmaceutical industry after China
World’s second-largest small car market
World’s second-largest group of software developers
100 Fortune 500 R & D facilities
Super computer manufacturer
Satellite launches
Information Communication
Technologies – Market Snapshot
World’s second-largest and fastest-growing telecom market
About 700 million subscribers and 13 mobile operators
Half of the world’s back office services
BPO and software sub-sectors employ over 2.3 million
directly and 8.2 million indirectly, with revenues of US $73
billion in FY2010
Animation and gaming industries growing rapidly
(estimated revenues of $1.8 billion by 2012)
INTRODUCTION
CHINA STOCK MARKET (SSE Composite)
Stocks in China had a positive performance during the last month.
China Stock Market (SSE Composite), rallied 2 points or 0.07
percent during the last 30 days. From 1990 until 2013, China
Stock Market (SSE Composite) averaged 1671 Index points
reaching an all time high of 6092 Index points in October of 2007
and a record low of 100 Index points in December of 1990. The
Shanghai SE Composite is a major stock market index which
tracks the performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the
Shanghai Stock Exchange, in China. It is a capitalization-weighted
index. The SSE Composite Index has a base value of CNY100 as
of December 19, 1990.
The Chinese Market development
Since 20 years the Chinese economy has a very important
role in the international scene, and also continues to be
subject of contrasting reviews.
The surface of China is 9,671,018 km, making it the largest
state in East Asia and the population is approximately 20% of
the world: China is the most populous country in the
world.
The importance of China in the XXI century is reflected in
its role as second largest economy to GDP after United
States.
China Trade patterns
China: Rapid export growth involving aggressiveincreases on world market shares, based onrelocative capital attracted by cheap labour andheavily subsidized infrastructure.
India: Lower rate of export growth, with cheaplabour due to low absolute wages rather than publicprovision and poor infrastructure development. Soexports have not yet become engine of growth,except in services.
INTRODUCTION
SOUTH AFRICA STOCK MARKET (FTSE/JSE)
Stocks in South Africa had a positive performance during the last
month. South Africa Stock Market (FTSE/JSE), rallied 121 points
or 0.28 percent during the last 30 days. From 1995 until 2013,
South Africa Stock Market (FTSE/JSE) averaged 16444 Index
points reaching an all time high of 44454 Index points in
September of 2013 and a record low of 4308 Index points in
September of 1998. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index is a major
stock market index which tracks the performance of all companies
listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa. It is a
free-float, market capitalization weighted index. The FTSE/JSE
All Share Index has a base value of 10815.08 as of June 21, 2002.
Economic Overview of South Africa
South Africa—middle-income, emerging marketwith abundance of natural resources.
◦ World's largest producer of platinum, gold,chromium
◦ Possess well-developed legal, communications,energy, transport, and financial sectors; with astock exchange that ranks among the 10 largestin the world.
◦ Employment by sector:
agriculture 30%, industry 25%, services 45%
FDI’s Presence in South Africa
TodayWhat makes South Africa an attractive climate for foreign
investors?
Substantial market with significant growth potential
Economy moving towards market orientation
Access to other markets in Africa
Well developed financial institutions and capital markets
Excellent communication and transport links
Lower labor costs compared to industrialized countries
Inexpensive electrical power and raw materials
Strong macroeconomic policies
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
IN THE GREEN ECONOMY
Natural Resource Management
Low Carbon Foods
Green Tourism Accreditation
Rural-based / niche Tourism
Renewable Energy Production - Wind & Biomass
Green Building Design and Construction
Efficient Transport Systems + Increased Public Transport
Efficient Planning of Towns and Cities
Developing Niche Markets in Retail / Manufacturing Sector
Sustainable Waste Management i.e. Reduce, Reuse & Recycle
Expansion of Environmental Consulting, Policy and Research
Green Procurement
Green Social Responsibility Opportunities
HYPOTHESIS
Null Hypothesis
H0 = There is no significant relationship between Brazil and other
select indices.
H0 = There is no significant relationship between Russia and other
select indices.
H0 = There is no significant relationship between India and other
select indices.
H0 = There is no significant relationship between China and other
select indices.
H0 = There is no significant relationship between South Africa and
other select indices
DATA ANALYSIS &
INTERPRETATION
Methodology
Study the Performance of Risk and Return behavior of indices
Beta (CAPM) Capital Assets Price Model .
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Correlation.
T-test, etc.
DATA ANALYSIS &
INTERPRETATIONIn this study, daily returns, without any adjustment for
dividends, has computed by using this formula:
Rt = ln(Pt / Pt – 1)* 100
Where:
Rt = is the daily return at time t of the and Islamic
Benchmark Indices {The IBOVESPA(Brazil), MICEX(Russia),
BSE-Sensex (India), SSE Composite index (China), The
FTSE/JSE(South Africa) }
Pt = is the daily price in time period t.
Pt-1 = is the daily price one period t-1.
DATA ANALYSIS &
INTERPRETATION
Compound Annual Growth Rate
= Start Value,
= Finish Value,
= Number of years.
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Risk and Return behaviour of The IBOVESPA (Brazil),
MICEX (Russia), BSE-Sensex (India), SSE Composite
index (China), The FTSE/JSE (South Africa) from 1st Jan.
2010 to 30th Sept. 2013
This part of study narrated the risk and return behavior all
Emerging Islamic Indices. The daily return of Ismlamic
Benchmark Indices{The IBOVESPA (Brazil), MICEX
(Russia), BSE-Sensex (India), SSE Composite index
(China), The FTSE/JSE (South Africa) } were calculated as
natural logarithm of today price divide by tomorrow price.
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 1: Performance of BRICS Stock Market from
1st Jan. 2007 to 31st Aug. 2013
The table 1 explain the respectively of Brazil indices is lower as compare
to the volatility of other remain benchmark indices, However, CAGR of
Sensex (India) is greater then the CAGR remain all benchmark indices.
Hence, South Africa indices is less risky than other remain benchmark
indices. But growth of Sensex (India) is increase because of India have
third rank in world economies growth after China and United States.
Indices Returns Volatility CAGR
Brazil 0.0131 27.4846 0.1340
Russia 0.0464 32.1400 0.4693
India 0.0252 30.6868 0.2525
China 0.0254 44.1961 0.2692
South Africa 0.0218 31.3303 0.2248
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 2: Performance of Beta between Brazil and
Other Selected Indices
The table 2, described the results of the beta with respective to Brazil
Indices. The beta value of Brazil Indices over the Other Selected Indices
are 0.54, 0.21 and 0.09 that means that 54% , 21% and 9% movement in
india, China, South Africa are dependent on market movements and rest
of 46%, 29% and 81% depends on the other factors. But Brazil & Russia
beta performance shows the negative impact.
Indices Beta
Brazil & India 0.5475
Brazil & Russia -0.2530
Brazil & China 0.2127
Brazil & South Africa 0.0953
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 3: Performance of Beta between Russia and
Other Selected Indices
The table 3, described the results of the beta with respective to Russia
Indices. The beta value of Russia Indices over the Other Selected Indices
are 0.18,and 0.23 that means that 18% and 23% movement in india and
China are dependent on market movements and rest of 82% and 77%
depends on the other factors. But Brazil & South Africa beta performance
shows the negative impact.
Indices Beta
Russia & Brazil -0.5366
Russia & India 0.1853
Russia & China 0.2375
Russia & South Africa -0.4815
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 4: Performance of Beta between India and
Other Selected Indices
The table 4, described the results of the beta with respective to Indian
Indices. The beta value of Indian Indices over the Other Selected Indices
are 0.42, 0.67 and 0.15 that means that 42%, 67% and 15% movement in
Brazil, Russia and China are dependent on market movements and rest of
58%, 33% and 85% depends on the other factors. But India & South
Africa beta performance shows the negative impact of market movement.
Indices Beta
India & Brazil 0.4251
India & Russia 0.6786
India & China 0.1517
India & South Africa -0.1168
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 5: Performance of Beta between China and
Other Selected Indices
The table 5, described the results of the beta with respective to China
Indices. The beta value of China Indices over the Other Selected Indices
are 0.18, 0.09, 0.17 and 0.42 that means that 18%, 9%, 17% and 42%
movement in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa are dependent on
market movements of rest of 88%, 91%, 83% and 58% depends on the
other factors.
Indices Beta
China & Brazil 0.1893
China & Russia 0.0997
China & India 0.1739
China & South Africa 0.4205
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 6: Performance of Beta between South Africa
and Other Selected Indices
The table 6, described the results of the beta with respective to South
Africa Indices. The beta value of South Africa Indices over the Other
Selected Indices are 0.06 and 0.36 that means that 6% and 36% movement
in Brazil and China are dependent on market movements of rest of 94%
and 64% depends on the other factors. But Russia and India beta
performance shows the negative impact of market movement.
Indices Beta
South Africa & Brazil 0.0613
South Africa & Russia -0.1464
South Africa & India -0.1315
South Africa & China 0.3616
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 7: Correlation between Brazil and Other
Selected Indices
The table 7, described The study of relationship between Brazil and other select
indices indicates that, null hypothesis is rejected and alternate hypothesis is
accepted in all the cases. Hence, there is a significant relationship between Brazil
and other world major indices. In all the cases, correlation is significant at 1% level
of significance, indicating strong integration of Brazil market with major world
stock markets. Though, the correlation of Brazil stock market is Moderate with
India and the correlation of Brazil stock market is weak with Russia, and China
market also, But Brazil & South Africa is showing the strong relationship. The
statistically significant as it is revealed in t-test.
Indices CorrelationLevel of
Correlation
T-test result
t-value p' value Hypothesis Accepted
Brazil & India 0.4825 Moderate 0.0400 0.9600 H1: Accepted
Brazil & Russia -0.3685 Weak -0.1010 0.9120 H1: Accepted
Brazil & China 0.2006 Weak 0.5630 0.5720 H1: Accepted
Brazil & South
Africa 0.7640 Strong 0.7650 0.4430 H1: Accepted
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 8: Correlation between Russia and Other
Selected Indices
The table 8, described The study of relationship between Russia and other
select indices indicates that, null hypothesis is rejected and alternate
hypothesis is accepted in all the cases. Hence, there is a significant
relationship between Brazil and other world major indices. Though, the
correlation of Russia stock market is Weak with all the selected Indices.
The statistically significant as it is revealed in t-test.
Indices CorrelationLevel of
Correlation
T-test result
t-value p' value Hypothesis Accepted
Russia & Brazil -0.3685Weak
-0.1017 0.9190 H1: Accepted
Russia & India 0.1121Weak
0.1387 0.8897 H1: Accepted
Russia & China 0.1539Weak
0.5503 0.5822 H1: Accepted
Russia & South Africa -0.2656Weak
0.1221 0.9028 H1: Accepted
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 9: Correlation between India and Other
Selected Indices
The table 9, described The study of relationship between India and other
select indices indicates that, null hypothesis is rejected and alternate
hypothesis is accepted in all the cases. Hence, there is a significant
relationship between India and other world major indices. Though, the
correlation of India stock market is Moderate with Brazil and rest of all
three stock market Russia, China, South Africa relationship with India’s is
Weak. The statistically significant as it is revealed in t-test.
Indices CorrelationLevel of
Correlation
T-test result
t-value p' value Hypothesis Accepted
India & Brazil 0.4825 Moderate -0.0423 0.9662 H1: Accepted
India & Russia 0.1121 Weak -0.1387 0.8897 H1: Accepted
India & China 0.1624 Weak 0.5567 0.5778 H1: Accepted
India & South Africa -0.1240 Weak 0.5750 0.5654 H1: Accepted
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 10: Correlation between China and Other
Selected Indices
The table 10, described The study of relationship between China and other
select indices indicates that, null hypothesis is rejected and alternate
hypothesis is accepted in all the cases. Hence, there is a significant
relationship between China and other world major indices. Though, the
correlation of China stock market is Weak with all the selected Indices.
The statistically significant as it is revealed in t-test.
Indices Correlation Level of CorrelationT-test result
t-value p' value Hypothesis Accepted
China & Brazil 0.2006 weak -0.5638 0.5730 H1: Accepted
China & Russia 0.1539 weak -0.5503 0.5822 H1: Accepted
China & India 0.1624 weak -0.5567 0.5778 H1: Accepted
China & South Africa 0.3899 weak 1.3850 0.1663 H1: Accepted
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 11: Correlation between South Africa and
Other Selected Indices
The table 11, described The study of relationship between India and other
select indices indicates that, null hypothesis is rejected and alternate
hypothesis is accepted in all the cases. Hence, there is a significant
relationship between South Africa and other world major indices. Though,
the correlation of South Africa stock market is Strong with Brazil and rest
of all three stock market Russia, India, China relationship with India’s is
Weak. The statistically significant as it is revealed in t-test.
Indices Correlation Level of Correlation
T-test result
t-value p' value Hypothesis Accepted
South Africa & Brazil 0.7640 Strong 0.7659 0.4439 H1: Accepted
South Africa & Russia -0.2656 weak 0.1221 0.9028 H1: Accepted
South Africa & India -0.1240 weak 0.5750 0.5654 H1: Accepted
South Africa & China 0.3899 weak 1.3850 0.1663 H1: Accepted
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 12: Correlation Matrix of BRICS Stock
Market
The tables 12, In comparing the returns of the All BRICS indices that
mean the relationship between of all benchmark indices show the level of
relationship like strong, moderate, weak. This relationship is very similar
to the result of Ahama and Ibrahim (2002) in Malaysia and P. Natarajan
and M. Dharani (2011).
Indices Brazil Russia India China South Africa
Brazil 1
Russia -0.0368497 1
India 0.0482478 0.01121 1
China 0.0200617 0.01539 0.01624 1
South Africa 0.7640113 -0.2656 -0.124 0.3899394 1
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Table 13: Descriptive Statistics for BRICS selected
Indices
The table 13, Russian Stock Market has witnessed greater fluctuations
which have been indicated by very high variation followed by Brazil,
China and India market index. In the case South Africa has shown very
low fluctuations. Skewness of the distribution of all the indices prices is
negative except Indian Stock market.
Indices Minimum Maximum Mean
Std.
Deviation Variance Kurtosis Skewness
Brazil -12.096 13.677 0.0200 1.9937 3.9747 6.1323 -0.0254
Russia -31.237 15.460 0.0293 2.9033 8.4289 12.7849 -0.8639
India -11.604 15.990 0.0171 1.7568 3.0862 7.7811 0.2496
China -9.256 9.034 -0.0202 1.8808 3.5373 2.9694 -0.3566
South Africa -4.252 4.094 0.0429 1.1532 1.3298 1.0575 -0.1575
CONCLUSIONS:The results of this study strongly support the view that,
there is a substantial integration between Indian and
International financial markets. Russian Stock Market has
witnessed a greater fluctuation which has been indicated
by a very high Co-efficient of variation compared to other
select indices. Sensex, the Indian bench mark index, has
shown Moderate association with all selected indices. In
the case of CAGR Indian Stock market has growing in
Comparison of All Selected Indices. In the case of
volatility Russian stock market is more volatile in
comparison of all selected Indices. In the case China,
according to volatility and CAGR is growing average
position out of the other selected indices. But according to
Goldman Sachs, The ten largest economies in the world in
2050, China will be the first position.
RECOMMENDATION AND
SUGGESTIONSThe BRICS growing importance for the world economy is reflected by
various economic and demographic indicators. These include
Their increasing share in world GDP share in world trade openness and
increasing forex reserves.
Their foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and outflows.
These projected long-term growth trends pose many opportunities and
challenges for businesses in China, India, Brazil and the other emerging
markets highlighted in our study will become not just low cost production
locations but also increasingly large consumer markets.
BRICS have 45% of global population, near about 30% of global
economy.
BRICS has every possibility to have a robust foot print in coming day’s
multi-polar world order.
The BRICS share in world trade has also improved significantly over the
last two decades, from 3.6% to over 15%.
RECOMMENDATION AND
SUGGESTIONSTheir shares have also increased, with Brazil’s share rising from 0.8% to 1.2%,
Russia’s from 1.5% to 2.3%, and India’s from 0.5% to 1.8%. South Africa is the
only country in the group whose share in world trade has remained constant over
the last two decades and also future prospective trade will increase.
Within the BRICS countries, China accounts for the highest share in both
population and economically active population.
India, though having second-highest population, shows a relatively lower
percentage of economically active compared with Brazil and Russia in the group.
BRICS economies will be in a more favorable position in 2020.
BRICS countries have a great opportunity to meet the future demands of the
world.
They will, in fact, become the worldwide sourcing hub for a skilled workforce.
They account for almost three billion people, or just under half of the world’s
total population.
The Goldman Sachs clearly indicates that by 2050 the BRICS countries will
become the world’s most important economies, replacing the US as the biggest
economy.
Questions Answers