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Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap
Launch webinar, 08 October 2020
Towards more sustainable steelmaking
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What do net-zero ambitions mean for energy technology?
• A growing number of governments and companies are making ambitious pledges
to reach net-zero emissions in the coming decades.
• Major progress has been made: the rise of solar PV, wind and batteries has
significantly reduced the costs of renewable electricity and electric cars.
• But an energy system transition to net-zero emissions requires broader
technology efforts in three critical areas:
• Existing assets in power generation and industry
• Clean energy innovation
• Infrastructure that enables rapid technology deployment
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-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtC
O2/y
r
Focusing on the power sector is not enough to reach climate goals
Clean energy technology progress in the power sector is encouraging, but alone not sufficient to reach energy and
climate goals. About half of all CO2 emissions today are from industry, transport and buildings.
Net-zero emissions
Power generation
Transport
Other industry
Buildings & other
Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends
Heavy industry
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Emissions from heavy industry sectors are ‘hard to abate’
Fossil fuels account for around 85% of the final energy used in heavy industries, which, combined, account for just
under a fifth of total energy system CO2 emissions.
Heavy industry final energy demand and direct CO2 emissions, 2019
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
Mto
e/y
r
Chemicals Steel Cement
Coal
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Imported heat
Bioenergy
Other renewables
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0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
Emissions from heavy industry sectors are ‘hard to abate’
Fossil fuels account for around 85% of the final energy used in heavy industries, which, combined, account for just
under a fifth of total energy system CO2 emissions.
Heavy industry final energy demand and direct CO2 emissions, 2019
GtC
O2/y
r
Mto
e/y
r
Chemicals Steel Cement
Energy-related emissions
Process emissions
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0
10
20
30
40
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400
Capacity (Mt hot metal)
Asia Pacific Eurasia Middle East Africa Europe Central and South America North America
Existing capacity is the starting point for the transition
Around 50% of the existing stock of ironmaking equipment is based in China, with India contributing a further 5%.
The current stock is quite young, with a global average age of 13 to 14 years for blast furnaces and DRI furnaces.
Geographic distribution and average age of key ironmaking assets
China coal blast furnace
Middle East
DRI gas
Japan coal blast furnaceUkraine coal blast furnace
Brazil coal blast furnace
Mexico gas DRIRecently refurbished
European blast furnace
Ye
ars
Typical lifetime
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0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
Baseline SDS
2000 2019 2050
Gt/
yr
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
Sto
ck p
er
ca
pita
(t/
ca
pita
)
Steel continues to play a pivotal role across multiple end-use sectors
Global demand for steel is projected to increase by more than a third through to 2050 in our baseline projection.
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, demand is reduced through material efficiency strategies.
Global end-use steel demand and in-use steel stock by scenario
Buildings
Infrastructure
Vehicles
Mechanical and
electrical equipment
Consumer goods
Pre-consumer scrap
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1 900
2 100
2 300
2 500
2 700
Mt/
yr
There is great potential for a more efficient use of steel
Material efficiency strategies pursued across the supply chain deliver savings of around 20% in global steel
production in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to our baseline projection.
Contributions to changes in global steel demand, 2050
Vehicles Direct useInfrastructure
requirements
Yield
improvementsBuildings
Transport
Power
Improved design and construction
Extended lifetime
Light-weightingReduced use
Product manufacturing
Semi-manufacturing
Direct re-use (without re-melting)
BaselineSustainable
Development
Scenario
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A portfolio of mitigation strategies is required
Technology performance improvements and material efficiency deliver 90% of annual emission reductions in 2030. In
the longer term, innovative technologies such as CCUS-equipped and hydrogen-based production are required.
Cumulative direct CO2 emission reductions in iron and steel,
Sustainable Development Scenario relative to baseline
Material efficiency
Technology performance
Electrification
Hydrogen
Bioenergy
Other fuel shifts
CCUS
2020 - 2030 2020 - 2050
40%
21%
16%
4%
8%
6%5%
22 Gt
43%
51%
2 Gt
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A diverse portfolio of energy carriers and processes
Unabated use of coal drops by more than 50% in the Sustainable Development Scenario by 2050, facilitated by
widespread deployment of innovative technologies.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2019 2050
SDS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2019 2050
SDS
Shares of process technology (left) and final energy carriers (right) in the Sustainable Development Scenario
Innovative BF-BOF w/ CCUS
Commercial SR-BOF
Innovative SR-BOF w/ CCUS
Commercial DRI-EAF
Commercial DRI-EAF w/ CCUS
100% H2 DRI-EAF
Scrap-based EAF
Commercial BF-BOF
Oil
Gas
Gas w/CCUS
Bioenergy
Electricity
Electricity for H2
Imported heat
Coal w/CCUS
Coal2019 2050
SDS
2019 2050
SDS
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Mt/
yr
0
100
200
300
400
MtC
O2/y
r
0
200
400
600
800
TW
h/y
r
Sustainable steel requires a major push for clean energy infrastructure
The transformation for primary steel production in the Sustainable Development Scenario requires infrastructure
developments for CO2 transport and storage, hydrogen production, and renewable electricity generation.
2019 2019 2019
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
Mt/
yr
2019
CO2 captured Hydrogen useElectricity for H2
productionIron production
Fossil DRI H2with CCUS
Fossil DRI H2without CCUS
CCUS-
equipped
Traditional
ironmaking
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0
400
800
1 200
1 600
Mt/
yr
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mt/
yr
0
100
200
300
400
MtC
O2/y
r
0
200
400
600
800
TW
h/y
r
Sustainable steel requires a major push for clean energy infrastructure
The transformation for primary steel production in the Sustainable Development Scenario requires infrastructure
developments for CO2 transport and storage, hydrogen production, and renewable electricity generation.
2050 2050 20502050
CO2 captured Hydrogen useElectricity for H2
productionIron production
Electrolytic
H2 primary
reducing
agent
Electrolytic
H2 injected
Fossil DRI H2with CCUS
Fossil DRI H2without CCUS
CCUS-
equipped
Traditional
ironmaking
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-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
SustainableDevelopment
Scenario
Faster InnovationCase
Innovation is key to delivering deep emissions reductions
In the Faster Innovation Case, demonstration and prototype stage technologies contribute nearly three times as
much emissions reductions in 2050 as in the Sustainable Development Scenario.
Emission reductions relative to baseline by currently pre-commercial technologies, 2050
Small prototype/lab
Large prototype
Demonstration
GtC
O2/y
r
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Governments have a critical role to play in accelerating the transition
Targeted actions for specific technologies and strategies
Steelmaking technologies
Framework fundamentals
Accelerating material
efficiency
Creating a market for near-
zero emission steel
Developing earlier-stage
technologies
Managing existing assets &
near-term investment
Planning and policy for long-term CO2 emission reductions
Driving force: stakeholder collaboration
Governments, steel producers & other actors
Scrap use & steel demand
Necessary enabling conditions
Infrastructure planning &
development
Tracking progress &
improved data
International co-operation &
a level playing field
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