IRRIIS- FP6-2005–IST-4

EC - LOGO

IRRIIS Reference Scenarios

Workshop 1.4Rome 8th of February 2007

Walter Schmitz

IRRIIS

1.Objectives of “Scenario Analysis 3

2.Critical Infrastructures today 5

3. Importance of Scenarios 10

4.Scenario Approach 15

5.Results: Scenario Interpretation 34

Agenda

Page

IRRIIS

WP1.2 Objectives

WP1.2 objectives are: to identify future scenarios which will serve as key

environments for threat-, risk-, and assessment of MIT solutions and LCCI countermeasures

to gather information concerning LCCIs confronted with such scenarios

to develop an advanced methodology for the vulnerability assessment and contingency planning.

WP1.2: Scenario and Risk Analysis

IRRIIS

Critical Infrastructures are highly netted, most of them globally e.g. energy transport telecommunications banking and finance

The Nature of Critical Infrastructures

Critical Infrastructures are

vital backbones of modern

societies

IRRIIS

Critical Infrastructures are increasingly depending on IT-and communication networks.

Critical Infrastructures are becoming preferred targets of future threats.

User

User Databank

Filter

Threats are becoming more and more asymmetric, cyber threats are becoming reality.

Role of ICT

IRRIIS

Fault-tolerance and self-healing should be important design criteria of complex systems such as CI

Natural disasters

Man made disasters

Terror attacks

Complexity of systems due to IT-penetration

Cause and effect in complex systems are hardly distinguishable

Critical Infrastructures: Threats

IRRIIS

CI Situation

Economic and societal relevance of CI dependability

Insufficient understanding of ICT-related dependencies, services

New market developments

New technologies

Emerging threats and vulnerabilities

Reverse trends:

Redundancy => increasing costs => decreasing shareholder value

Privatisation => shareholder value oriented =>reduction of costs

New business models are needed => PPP => information sharing

Development and usage of novel technologiesValidation by using novel scenarios

IRRIIS

Scenario: Problems & Obstacles

Nobody knows the future

Two extreme behaviours of planners:

(1) asserted certainty with extrapolation of the traditional planning

(2) total uncertainty without any indication for the future

Three Obstacles have to be overcome:

(1) Imagination that we deal with an exactly predictable future

(2) The hard rule of cause and effect in highly complex world

(3) Sole focusing on the current success that can be a future flop

Three groups of opponents

(1) Traditional planners and controllers: “only one future!”

(2) Wrights: networked thinking is an intellectual baublery

(3) Successful colleagues point to their impressive balance sheet

IRRIIS

Future Oriented Organisations

… should not neglect

(1) Thinking and acting open for each possible future

(2) Networked thinking and acting

(3) Strategic thinking and acting

Scenario means alternative descriptions of future

complex systems like CIs.

The integration of such scenarios into the process of

the strategic management leads to

“Scenario Management”.

IRRIIS

Scenario Management

Scenario management applies alternative scenarios

in order• to identify and tap new success factors• to detect and process weak signals

earlier than competitors.

But how to detect and process them in a goal-oriented

way in order to enable the organisation to react quickly

and adequately?

IRRIIS

Future oriented organisations need a strategic early detection capability:

(1) Scanning of the whole environment

(2) Examination of identified signals

(3) Observation of crisis indicators / critical factors

(4) Scenarios as a grouping of trend projections

Advantages:

(1) More time for decision making

(2) The integration of the detected signals into the decisionprocess enlarges the scope of design and control

Early Detection

IRRIIS

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

ImpactAnalysis

ScenarioInterpretation

FailureAnalysis

Step 8 Step 6 Step 5 Step 7

Scenario-Transfer

Scenario Approach

ProblemAnalysis

InfluenceAnalysis

ScenarioProjection

Grouping ofAlternatives

IRRIIS

Step 1: Problem Analysis (1)

Several drivers aggravate the CIP problem:

1) interlinked aspects of market forces2) technological evolution, and3) emerging risk factors.

w.r.t. 1) Globalisation of information services will lead to increasing connectivity and ill-understood behaviour of systems and vulnerabilities.w.r.t. 2) Security has not been a design driver, pressure to reduce time to marketw.r.t. 3) Increasingly large parts of CIs will be under control of private sector and will be trans-national.

IRRIIS

(1)Technical perspective:

IRRIIS develops technologies to foster information exchange between the different infrastructures to enhance substantially their dependability.

(2)Management perspective: CIIP/CIP is seen as a “service continuity” problem including technical, organisational and human factors.

(3)Dependency perspective: Vulnerabilities induced by dependence on other

infrastructures are the focus of IRRIIS.

IRRIIS Perspectives

IRRIIS

Elem1

Elemn

Elem2Intra-

dependencies

Elem1

Elemn

Elem2Intra-

dependenciesInterdependencies

Politics Technology

Economy Society

Ecology

GlobalEnvironment

Elem1

Elemn

Elem2Intra-

dependencies

SpecificEnvironment

IRRIISResearch Area

Electricity Internet

Telecom.

Step 2: Influence Areas

IRRIIS

Description of Key Factors (1)

Descriptor: D2.3

Short Name: Distributed Generation (DG) and Renewable Energy Sources (RES)

Detailed Description:

Some generators like RES are not controlled by system operators. Generation level of these sources is seldom being planned ahead and is often difficult to pre-dict. Poorly predictable and non-controllable generation requires more control and reserves, which will increase the price of electric power. ICT dependency and costs are limiting factor for improving predictability and controllability.

Actual Status 2006:

RES and DG are aiming at reduction of carbon emissions. The amount of this energy is sensitive in the market and requires increasing regulation and reserves.In some areas further increase is not possible without either higher costs or worse-ning supply reliability. Interfacing, protection, automation and controllability of DG, RES, and DSO network.

IRRIIS

Uncertainty-Impact-Analysis selects the relevant influencefactors in consideration of the following questions:

• How important is the influence factor for the problem to be solved?

• How uncertain is the future status of the influence factor from the current point of view?

veryimportant

lessimportant

highlycertain

highlyuncertain

Follow-on analysis should be focused on factors which are assessed as very important and highly uncertain!

Uncertainty-Impact-Analysis

IRRIIS

D1.1 - Liberalisation of trade

D1.2- Privatisation

D1.3 - Competition

D1.4 - Transnat. character of CIs

D1.5 - Security requirements

D1.6 - Offshore reliance

D2.1 - Globalisation

D2.2 - Market dynamics

D2.3 - Outsourcing

D2.4 - Appropriate security management procedures

D2.5 - ICT-costs

D2.6 - Business models

D2.7 - Flexible organisation of LCCI providersD2.8 - Demand for LCCI-services

4.11 - Interfaces

D3.1 - Conflicting interests of CI stakeholders

D3.2 - Public awareness regarding CI vulnerabilities

D3.3 - Corporate culture

D3.4 - Leadership style

D3.5 - Skills of personnel

D3.6 - White-collar crime

D4.1- ComplexityD4.2 - Mutual depen-dence of CIs

D4.3 - Intelligent and sophisticated networking

D4.4 D4.5

D4.6 - Internet as carrier

D4.7 - Wireless communication

D4.8 - Synchronous and asynchronous communication

D4.9 - ICT equipment of LCCI providers

D4.10 - IT-security

highly uncertainhighly certain

lessimportant

veryimportant

IRRIIS

Analysis of the complexity of the system with the aid of the Cross-Impact-Matrix (CI-Matrix: Driver-Driven-Analyse)

• Which descriptors do strongly influence the system?

• Which descriptors are influenced by which?

• Presentation of the results as follows:

IPassive

Elements

IICritical

Elements

IIIBufferingElements

IVActive

Elements

Passive-Values

Active-Values

Influence-Analysis

IRRIIS- FP6-2005–IST-4

EC - LOGO

IRRIIS

IRRIIS

IRRIIS: Selected Key Factors

D1.1 Liberalisation of CI markets

D1.2 Reliance on energy sources outside EU

D1.3 Protection of environment and energy saving

D1.4 Security management

D2.1 Business models

D2.2 Energy market dynamics

D2.3 Distributed generation and renewable energy sources

D3.1 Skills of personnel

D4.1 Complexity and dependences

D4.2 Internet-based and converging networks

D4.3 Information security of ICT

Politics

Economy

Society

Technology

IRRIIS

1. Identify the cross-linkedscenario parameters 2. Select the most relevant influence parameters; ...

today Prognosis Horizontime

... describe several development lines for the selected parametersand assign reasons for theselines ...

Scenario-Field Scenario-Projection Scenario-BuildingScenario-Building

... and combine them toconsistent scenarios

timetoday Prognosis Horizon

Step 3: Trend Projection

IRRIIS

Description of Key Factors (2)

Descriptor: D2.3

Short Name: Distributed Generation (DG) and Renewable Energy Sources (RES)

Projection A (2015):

Continuous growing of DG and RES

Rationale: Communication infrastructure will develop services that improve highlydistributed remote automation and reliable but inexpensive data communication.

Projection B (2015):

Penetration of DG and RES will stop increasing

Rationale: Penetration of DG and RES will be delayed due to

(1) high price of electric power produced by DG and RES

(2) costs caused by the electric power infrastructure

(3) cost of reliable communication to distributed sites

(4) complex protection systems and non-harmonised requirements

IRRIIS

1. Identify the cross-linkedscenario parameters 2. Select the most relevant influence parameters; ...

today Prognosis Horizontime

... describe several development lines for the selected parametersand assign reasons for theselines ...

Scenario-Field Scenario-Projection Scenario-BuildingScenario-Building

... and combine them toconsistent scenarios

timetoday Prognosis Horizon

Step 4: Grouping of Alternatives

IRRIIS

Internet-driven open market Concentration & private networksBundle 1 Bundle 2 Bundle 3 Bundle 4 Scenario #1 Bundle 5 Bundle 6 Scenario #2

D1.1A x x x x xD1.1B x x xD1.2A x x x x xD1.2B x x xD1.3A x xD1.3B x x x x xD1.4A x x x x xD1.4B x x xD2.1A x x x x xD2.1B x xD2.2A x x x x xD2.2B x x xD2.3A x x x x xD2.3B x x xD3.1A x x x x x xD3.1B xD4.1A x x xD4.1B x x x x xD4.2A x x x x xD4.2B x x xD4.3A x x x x xD4.3B x x x

Liberalisation of CI markets

Reliance on Energy Sources Outside EUProtection of the Environment and Energy Saving

Security Management

Complexity and Dependences

Sophisticated and Converging Network based on the Internet

Information Security of ICT

Business Models

Energy Market Dynamics

Distributed Generation and Renewable Energy Sources

Skills of personnel

Grouping of Alternatives

IRRIIS

Concentration and private networksD1.2B Weak reliance

D1.3B Diminished protectionD1.4B Diminished security mgmtD2.2B Internal energy marketsD2.3B Decreasing DG and RES

penetrationD4.1B Isolated solutions and

increased complexityD4.3B Weakened IT-security

Selection of 2 Extreme Scenarios

Liberalisation of CI-markets (politics)low high

So

ph

isti

cate

d In

tern

et-b

ased

net

wo

rks

high

low

Internet-driven open marketD1.2A Strong reliance on energy

resources outside EUD1.3A Advanced protection of the

environment and energy savingD1.4A Developed security managementD2.2A Competitive open energy marketsD2.3A Growing DG and RESD3.1A Advanced skills of personnel

D4.1A Holistic solutions and reducedcomplexity

D4.3A Strengthened IT-security

IRRIIS

S 1: Internet-driven open Market

IRRIIS

S 2: Concentration and Private Networks