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IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
ESPON 2.2.2.
Pre-accession aid impact analysis- Third Interim Report -
ESPON Seminar Nijmegen, 11-12 October 2004
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Relation between Potentials and Pre-Accession Aid
GDP Unemployment
Socio-economic impacts
Methodological Overview
Potential Data Pre-Accession Aid Data
Data Collection
Potential Analysis Meta Analysis
Analysis of Regional Pre-Accession Aid
ESPON Database
Qualitative Impact Analysis (case
studies)
Location Quotients (& related to potentials)
Quantitative Impact Analysis
Policy Oriented Typologies
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Preliminary Results – Typology Macro Level
• Change of relative position depends on national income levels and national performance
• Above average growth and low intervention level – capital regions of Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia
• Average and below average growth despite relatively high intervention level – mostly only in quite peripheral regions
• No region in group of highest intervention level with clearly above average income growth
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Preliminary Results – Typology Meso Level
• Above national average growth with low intervention level – many capital and other centrally located regions and some (Western) border regions
• Below national average growth despite relatively high intervention level – fewer cases in mostly peripheral regions
Pure income impacts very limited on both spatial levels
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Preliminary Results – Unemployment Development and EU Intervention
Latvia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
% regional PAA of national PAA
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t ra
te
1999
2002
Potenziell (2002)
Potenziell (1999)
Riga
Latgale
Vidzeme
Romania
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
% regional PAA of national PAA
Un
emp
loym
entr
ate
1999
2002
Exponentiell (2002)
Exponentiell (1999)
Centru
Bucuresti
Sud-Est
Sud-Vest
Estonia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
% regional PAA of national PAA
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t ra
te
1999
2002
Potenziell (2002)
Potenziell (1999)
Laane-Eesti
Pohja-Eesti
Kirde-Eesti
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Preliminary Results – Role of Potentials
• Different potentials matter for income and unemployment developments to different extents
Income development Unemployment development
Population density Population density
Active population density Active population density
Sectoral employment structure Sectoral employment structure
Agglomeration (size) (Accessibility)
Institutional potential Institutional potential
• Other influences: initial unemployment and income; region types in some cases; not observed influences
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Preliminary Results – Spatial Integration• Cross-border cooperation
- Programmes mostly focus on regional bottlenecks resulting from border situation, yet, often aim at improvements on level other than micro-level (e.g. transport linkages for agglomerations)
- 'Soft' measures of SPFs very effective in terms of socio-cultural integration, but: low importance of these measures in other programmes
- Positive effects for regional building of institutions' capacity where funds have not been too limited
- Focus on regional development rather than spatial integration
- Level of existing spatial integration tends to define scope of cross-border cooperation programmes and not the other way around
• Trans-national integration- Programmes address main bottlenecks and potentials common to respective macro-region
- Significant impacts on trans-national level not to be expected as of funds' limitation
- Existing integration level defines common fields of action
- Institution building and integration successful
- Unequal opportunities hamper spatial integration impacts in socio-economic terms – national vs. trans-national interests
- Regional rather than macro-regional character of many projects
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Tentative Policy Recommendations – 3-Level Approach
• Macro-Level:
- support of productive investments with sustainable effects for regional economy
- creation of growth from economic centres (relatively high potential endowment) through competition oriented policy to expanding regions then creating spatial cohesion
- strengthen role of potential and weak MEGAs in New Member States and Candidate Countries – especially in CEE Triangle – through potential rather than priority orientation
• Micro-Level:
- regional SWOT – analytical base for concentrated regional measures
- improving regional institutional structures
• Meso-Level:
- utilisation of institutional achievements and their further enhancement
- consider national specifics in their translation for regional policies
- coordinated and integrative strategy for regions depending on their natural, social and economic endowment with potentials / bottlenecks
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Tentative Policy Recommendations – Policy Packages
• Package 1 for major urban agglomerations: infrastructure linkages; innovation; sector structure
• Package 2 for Western border regions: human resources; innovation; cross-border integration
• Package 3 for old industrial regions: business restructuring; human resources; infrastructure modernisation; environment
• Package 4 for Eastern peripheral and rural regions: local SMEs; institution building; human resources
• Package 5 for island economies: environment; trans-national integration; economic diversification
IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer
Main Challenges
• Further improvements of data availability (SAPARD)
• Dealing with missing data
• Improving output of selective work packages (e.g. quantitative analysis)
• Completing ex-ante analysis
• Cluster analysis for uniting elements of potential analysis
• Synthesis – Bringing together results of all work packages and for all spatial levels
• Integration of priority 2 project results (sector policies)