Is a mobile phone more dangerous than an AK47?

In 2010 the Arab Spring started and surprised us all. It provided a stark example of how the simultaneous convergence of cloud computing, mobile devices, social media, Millennials and collaborative tools can enable and empower self-organising networks to overthrow hierarchical structures.

But by 2015 the promise of less corrupt and more representative government across the region was instead replaced by instability and chaos. The removal of hierarchical structures had created a power vacuum.

The same type of revolution is now sweeping across the business world. Digital transformation enables Amazon or Alibaba to compete with high street retailers, ecommerce or bitcoin to challenge the dollar and robots or artificial intelligence to replace middle-class managerial jobs.

What do the latest statistics and trends indicate? How are governments across the world reacting to these challenges? Why is social media so crucial in international diplomacy and foreign affairs?

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2010: Middle East And Africa Has The Fastest Growing Online Population

Source: ComScore Feb 2011

Tunisia 17 Dec 2010 - Mohamed Bouazizi self –immolates due to humiliation from Govt officials – images and news spreads across Twitter, Facebook and mobile phones.Food inflation, unemployment and Govt corruption mobilises Tunisians to protest

London 7 Dec 2010 – The Guardian publish The US Embassy Cables – US Ambassador to Tunisia says “country is troubled by nepotism, corruption, and the 'sclerotic' regime of ageing president Ben Ali.” This information spreads across Twitter

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2011: Across The World Younger Citizens Actively Use Mobile Devices And Social Networks

Source: McKinsey Jan 2012

In emerging markets the 18-35 demographic is rapidly adopting mobile devices and the use of social networks

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2012: Social Media and Political Instability

Source: Dubai School of Government March 2012

The adoption and use of social networks is increasing political instability

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2012: Social Media Challenges The Rules

Source: Dubai School of Government March 2012

Social tools like Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and the availability of mobile phones and Internet access allow groups to self organise and share information - circumnavigating traditional structures

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2012: 2.4 Billion Global Internet Users

Source: Kleiner, Perkins, Caulfield, Byers Dec 2012

Online populations are rapidly growing and are using social networks to access and share news and information

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2012: Social Network Participation Leads Online Behaviour

Source: McKinsey 2012

Brazilians main online activity is accessing social networks – and 60% of Brazilians find out about news stories via social networks

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2012: Social Media For Business (LinkedIn)

Source: Amerdio Verde Jan 2012

Rapid rise in business people using LinkedIn

In 2010 YoY growth was 72% for Africa, 85% for Latin America and 62% in Middle East

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2013: Internet Challenges Traditional Information Sources

Source: NW University Qatar 2013

Reuters Digital News Survey 2013

Across the world online is replacing TV as the main source of news for the 18-35 demographic

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2012: Young People Get Politically Active On Social Networks

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2013: Influencers Can Suddenly Appear From Nowhere & Be Amplified Globally

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Why Did The Arab Spring Fail?

• Uprisings created power vacuums• Male tribal hierarchies still dominated• Endemic corruption• Lack of professional middle class • Lack of female empowerment• Lack of low cost, collaborative and open

technology to transform business, society and government

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How Did Some Governments Initially React?

• Monitoring • Surveillance• Shutting down social media and IM services• Wanting back doors to access data• Astroturfing

“Closed” To “Open”

Simultaneous impact of:

• Social networks• Cloud computing• Mobility • Generation Y• Globalisation• Collaborative technology• Open technologies

World Is Changing

World Is Changing – Year-On-Year Growth

Time Spent On The Internet

Social Media Use – By Country

Mobile’s Share Of Web Traffic

Social Networks

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What Are The ImpactsOf These Changes

Media Has Changed

Media Consumption Has Changed

Source: Reuters News Global Survey 2013

Society Is Changing

Power Is Changing

Organisations Are Changing

Brands Are Changing

Marketing Is Changing

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Advocacy & The Network Effect

Click here to see geotagged tweets showing #bringbackourgirls

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Project Loon & Low Cost Solar Powered Smartphones

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Demographic Change Projections To 2100

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Opening Up Government - Encourage Civic Society, Innovation And Collaboration

http://gu.com/p/3ggg4

Open standards

Open source

Open data

Open government

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Open Source Everything

Source: David Steele

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Thank You

Andy Black

My Experience Includes Working With:

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/andyblack1

https://twitter.com/AndyBlacz