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Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 1
Running Head: INFLUENCE OF NEGATIVE CAMPAINGS ON PUBLIC OPINION
The Influence of Attitude on Public Decisions:
How Negative Campaigns affect the Public Opinions
Andrew Ciccone
Quantitative Methods
PROPOSAL
Baruch College
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 2
Purpose
Credibility, reputation, identity, and image may be irreparably damaged from negative
campaigning. This study provides useful insights for political advisors and the communications
industry to consider.
The Attitude-Toward-The-Ad Model assumes that favorable reactions to an advertisement are
projected onto the brands featured in the advertisement (Muehling, 1987). The premises of this
proposal will apply the criterion of related theory to determine whether the severity of negative
statements influence public attitudes towards the person(s) making such statements and those
who are being criticized. The topic of study is the impact and affect, if any, of negative
campaigning in politics.
Advertisers and communicators often have concerns about unintended perceptions and
interpretations of comparative advertising and or other communicative campaigns. This
consideration is relevant as there are varied opinions on mentioning competitors in your
messages, and if it is prudent to do so.
Other responses to comparative campaign formats regarding beliefs about claims, credibility of
sources, could have a direct and negative effect on the public‟s perceptions of those criticized.
The severity of statements towards others may have lasting reputational damage significantly
influencing attitudes the public has towards those criticized.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 3
Literature Review
The interest in the political process at times is apathetic, however there is a real desire for many
citizens to participate and support various issues and candidates. Various internal and external
influences affect Americans attitudes and beliefs on a local level in their communities and on a
national scale, on opinions formulated. The presidential candidate‟s beliefs influence the
public‟s attitudes as voters indentify with an individual candidate symbolically or may favor a
candidate based on their position(s) on various issues. Most people choose candidates
combining the candidates personal attributes with their positions on various issues.
Subjective norms may predict behavioral intentions however societal pressures may have less of
an influence on behavioral intentions than the attitude construct. In other words, how
individual‟s processes information from media, interpersonal sources, and the intellectual
community (attitudes) typically prevail over societal norms.
Intentions are decisions to act in a particular way. Eagly and Chaiken (1993, p. 168) note that
intentions are a “psychological construct distinct from attitude, [which] represents the person‟s
motivation in the sense of his or her conscious plan to exert effort to carry out behavior”. In
applications of The Theory of Reasoned Action TRA, researchers have operationalized
intentions as either the likelihood that one will perform a behavior (Koballa, 1988) or as an
approximation of performing a behavior in the future. The model of goal directed behavior
posits that attitudes, positive and negative emotions, and subjective norms influence intentions
through desires. There is a connection between personal attitudes and being influenced by
subjective norms that may illicit an individual to take action on an issue. The hypothesized
model recognizes that the connection is affective and does encompass emotions, suggesting that
eagerness encompasses one‟s level of interest and intensity of desire to act.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 4
Literature Review (Cont’d)
Eagerness to perform behavior reflects their desire to take action and incorporates each person‟s
goal(s) and internal motivations. Consumer‟ motivations to act are measured in the context of
thinking about engaging in an activity. Much research in marketing, consumer behavior, and
psychology has suggested that consumers vary in the degree of eagerness to engage in a new
behavior (Bargh, 2002).
Attitudes toward performing a behavior are generally viewed as assessments of an individual‟s
propensity towards a behavior (Finlay, Trafimow, & Villarreal, 2002).
A person‟s beliefs that certain individuals or organizations (referents), believe how an individual
or group should perform, or refrain from culturally defined behavior. Norms are a function of
various types of societal beliefs, determined by the culmination of the experiences and influences
of a person‟s beliefs and motivations to adhere to a subjective norm. Normative beliefs are
individual‟s beliefs that underlie the norms that pervade in one‟s reality. Attitude toward a
specific behavior and subjective norms have been shown to account for much variance in
intention to perform a specific behavior (Finlay et al., 2002).
Involvement is the motivational quality “to move forward to engage in a new behavior”
(Warrington & Shim, 2000).
Researchers have found that the closer match between one‟s self-concept and a proposed
behavior, the more motivated a consumer is to act (Charng, Piliavin, & Callero, 1988;
Warrington & Shim, 2000). Rapaport and Orbell (2000, p. 320) examine behavioral intentions,
“If a person indentifies with a specific role or action, they are more likely to express a positive
attitude towards the action, which in turn may act as a predictor of intention.” Both Higie and
Feick (1989) and Kapferer and Laurent (1993) conceptualize involvement as having a self-
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 5
Literature Review (Cont’d)
expressive component. The extent to which one‟s choice or position on an issue tells others
about you. In contrast, self-concept motivates individuals to perform certain behaviors because
doing so will communicate meaning to others and further enhance one‟ self concept. In other
words, one‟s self image is very important motivator of behavior (Grubb and Grathwohl, 1967).
Hypothesis
A number of processes may account for the impact of communicative influences from the media,
public opinion polls, and word of mouth on an individual‟s attitudes and beliefs. The classical
conditioning effect is most often cited in which the affect generated by the message “transfers”
to the intended audience. Learning theory offers a theoretical rationale for this transference
process, simply stated our attitudes towards good things is favorable and generally speaking our
attitudes towards objects associated with bad things is unfavorable. Therefore positive or
negative feelings associated with an issue or message may also be projected onto an individual or
group. The Fishbein (1975) multi-attribute model assumes that attitudes towards objects are
comprised of beliefs associated with the object with specific attributes and evaluations of the
attributes.
From previous studies, it has been proven that subtle negative campaign messages do not
adversely affect those being criticized. Hypotheses were formulated in this study to unearth any
correlation between the severity of negative campaigns and how the public‟s attitudes are
influenced by those making such statements and those being criticized.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 6
Hypothesis (Cont’d)
On the basis of the literature reviewed research questions were chosen as opposed to formulating
hypotheses as there is not enough compelling research on the effects of negative statements on
those criticized and how such statements affect public attitudes.
RQ1: An overtly negative campaign message towards those criticized
unfavorably affects the public‟s opinion of those criticized. It does
not adversely affect the public‟s opinion of those making such
statements.
RQ2: An overtly negative campaign message towards those criticized
has no affect on the public‟s opinion of those criticized. However,
it does adversely affect the public‟s opinion of those making such
statements.
Methodology
Methods & Measures
Scholars Carrel and Wilmington (1998) studying persuasion know that compliance, performing a
behavior or act, differs from internalization, valuing a behavior or act such as a statement.
Baseline quantitative pre-test measures of the credibility of the political candidates from the
2008 election were surveyed utilizing self-report closed end questionnaires to ensure internal
validity. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee were
all measured as to the credibility of each candidate utilizing (Pfau and Eveland, 1996) semantic
differential scales of measurement to assess voter‟s attitudes. Researchers (Berlo, Lemert, &
Mertz, 1971;
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 7
Methodology
Methods & Measures (Cont’d)
E. W. Miles & Leathers, 1984; Teven & Comadena, 1996) found that credibility (believability),
a multi-dimensional concept comprised of three independent factors: authoritativeness,
trustworthiness, and dynamism. Each of these factors was measured by six 7-point semantic
differential scales.
Authoritativeness: qualified/unqualified, informed/uninformed, authoritative/un-
authoritative, trained/untrained, experienced/un-experienced, skilled/unskilled
Trustworthiness: agreeable/un-agreeable, kind/cruel, pleasant/unpleasant,
safe/dangerous, congenial/quarrelsome, friendly/unfriendly
Dynamism: empathetic/hesitant, active/passive, aggressive/meek, bold/timid,
frank/reserved, forceful/forceless
The six items of the semantic differential scales used to measure each factor were summated to
produce a separate score for authoritativeness, trustworthiness and dynamism. These three
scores were then summed up into a single score with more weighting on authoritativeness and
trustworthiness.
The dependent variable in this case of credibility was used to measure a respondents‟ attitude
towards each candidate using three 7-point semantic differential scales: credible/not credible,
competent/incompetent, and qualified/unqualified. The respondents in the pre-test were asked
their political affiliation in order to evaluate any bias toward a political party, in addition those
surveyed were asked to rank order the trustworthiness of each candidate. For the purposes of
this study more weight was given to the findings ascribed to the candidates of their political party
of choice when a clear bias was indicated from the data. All the candidates evaluated in the pre-
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 8
Methodology
Methods & Measures (Cont’d)
test were found to be of comparable integrity.
The video clips of candidates selected statements that were pre-tested as to the severity of the
harsh/harmless statements candidates made towards rivals using the 7-point semantic differential
scale for measurement validity.
Procedures
Due concern for the dignity and welfare of the participants in compliance with laws and
standards was seriously considered, reasonable steps implemented protections for the rights and
welfare of human participants and other persons affected by the research conducted. All
participants in this study were informed and provided consent voluntarily, free of will to
participate in this research as was the ethical standards for the reporting and publishing of the
research results.
DVD discs were provided to students interested in participating in this study in select states,
counties, and cities at college campuses about the United States that reflect the voting public.
Students selected watched the videos at various settings, such as their homes, or other
comfortable locations over the allotted two week period, simply emailing the questionnaire back
indicating their responses.
Errors were reduced by administering accurate measurement techniques in a consistent manner.
A threat to this study, albeit considered non-threatening was the lack of control over the setting
as to where the video-clips were viewed and the questionnaires taken by the students. Each
participant was allotted two weeks to watch the video clips and submit the questionnaire via the
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 9
Methodology
Procedures (Cont’d)
internet to minimize any sleeper effect threats as to the timing of when students participated in
this study, and the external events influencing their attitudes, certainly may influence responses.
The procedures, methods, and questionnaires ensured that the standards put forth from the
Institutional Review Board (IRB) were strictly adhered to. The questionnaire design and the
DVD video-clips of the candidates were administered in compliance with the recognized
standards of scientific competence and ethical research.
A pilot study of the questionnaire was conducted utilizing the test-retest method at two points in
time evaluating any possibility that questions or results could be misleading. Cronbach‟s (1951)
alpha coefficient method evaluated the overall relationship among the questionnaires answers
achieving internal reliability well above 0.75, considered acceptable for scholarly review.
The treatment, or other “filler” video-clip‟s content regarding candidate‟s statements were pre-
tested and measured to be less harsh than those being studied. These “filler” clips (the
independent variable) were manipulated regarding the severity of the statements made by the
candidates to provide control over the experiment. The “filler” video-clips were randomly
distributed into the experimental sample to better evaluate how the participants‟, the public (the
dependent variable) attitudes were influenced by the varying severity of the candidate‟s
statements.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 10
Methodology
Sampling
A representative sample of (3,000 college students) were selected non-randomly reflected
eligible voters on the basis of gender, race, religion, ethnicity, home state, urban/suburban cities,
and political party. Factors such as age, income, and education were not fairly represented as
college students were used out of convenience. Cluster sampling was used in select states,
counties within those states, cities within those counties, to select colleges of higher learning that
are indicative of all regions of the United States, as there are varying views based on the region
of the country that may skew the findings of this study.
To minimize external and internal influences on the respondents‟ attitudes that history and
selection may pose, the timing of the study was over a three month period. Two, three month
surveys representing cross-sectional samples of typical voters were conducted in the winter of
2007 and spring of 2008 as people‟s beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors are time bound sensitive.
Historical factors that may have an impact on the respondents‟ participating in this study include
local, national, and world events going on at this time of this survey. Personal friendships,
relations, peers, and family members may also impact the respondents answers affecting their
attitudes towards candidates and or issues brought up in the video-clips presented in this
research.
Other considerations such as the student‟s major in college or parent‟s political affiliation were
not deemed to be substantive factors in influencing opinions of this study. Of course history-
selection may have influenced regions of the U.S. due to local or regional events and or
statements made by candidates in those areas or if the candidates are from those regions of the
United States.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 11
Methodology
Questionnaire
In order to easily compare the information gathered from the respondents a directive strategy was
embraced. The structure of the closed-end questions as much as possible took into account,
question order effects of consistency, fatigue, and redundancy. The self-report questions were
also structured to eliminate as much as possible to avoid response style, so that the respondents
did not simply indicate the same answer to each question, results that did indicate this behavior
were reviewed to evaluate the level of participation of the respondent. A balanced-scale
approach to the structure of the questions (Oskamp, 1991) switched the wording of questions to
elicit positive or negative responses. Finally questions were structured to elicit a quarrelsome
response style leading participants to say „yes‟ or „no‟ to a similar questions, validating the
consistency of the data.
Threats due to how the research was conducted. Measurement validity and reliability was
minimized by clearly indicting each question asked in simple language employing a tunnel
format to yield consistent responses easily coded. Only questions relevant to the study were
asked, not slang, abbreviations or vague expressions were used in the questions. Important terms
were highlighted for emphasis, but not overtly used.
Questions were specific, precise, and focused on one aspect per question to simplify the answers
with attention given to matching the choices to questions appropriately. Response answers were
mutually exclusive to indicate only one answer to each question, as were the choices to each
question exhaustive to ensure all possible anticipated answers. Inclusive terms such as
always/never imply negative connotations and were not used in the phrasing of questions.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 12
Methodology
Questionnaire (Cont’d)
The questionnaire was written in a natural conversational tone with simple wording avoiding
complex questions. Care was taken to construct logically complete, grammatically correct, short,
to the point questions, not breaking questions between pages, and that did not duplicate earlier
items or that may appear redundant to those surveyed. The tone of the survey was user friendly
and flowed easily from one question to another to put the participants in a mood conducive to
answering the questions and to alleviate fatigue. Earlier questions engaged the respondents‟
interest in the subject being researched but did not overwhelm them.
Sensitive questions were placed in the middle of the survey as participants would most likely be
agreeable to answering questions truthfully. Questions regarding demographic information was
asked of voluntarily and placed at the end of the survey with regard to race, ethnicity, and other
potentially personal information. Answers to such questions as age and income were provided as
ranges as many people are sensitive to providing such personal information.
Variables
The candidates‟ statements represented on the DVD video-clips (independent variable) were
studied to evaluate if there was any influence attitudes on the (dependent variable) of the public
or in this case the respondents participating in this research. The candidates criticized (also
dependent variables) by campaign statements (independent variable) from rivals influence the
public‟s/respondent‟s (dependent variable) attitudes towards those criticized.
Aspects of the variables could not be controlled such as the tone of candidates‟ words and the
crowds‟ reactions to the candidates captured on the video-clips. The audience‟s at these political
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 13
Methodology
Variables (Cont’d)
events usually is biased for the candidate, and their reactions to statements made certainly may
influence those viewing the film footage. The setting of debates among candidates within the
same party may have a subtle advantage given the topics discussed that may favor one candidate
over another as regions of the country have varying priorities such as rural or urban areas. The
press may ask or respond to a candidate‟s statement that may be biased to the candidate. On any
occasion the clothes of each candidate may lend subtle bias to the participants of this research
and many other intangibles such as if their spouse, family, friends, and other high profile
individuals present in the video-clip provided.
Data Analysis
Results
Given the large sample size, the scores of the variables upon evaluation were found to exhibit a
normative distribution typical of the population sample indicate a high level of accuracy
supporting the central limits theory (Norusis, 1991). The random sample in this study reflects
the actual mean in the sampling distribution accurately representing the true population mean
with a 95% confidence level indicating a high level of reliability for the internal measures and
assurance of minimal internal error.
There was no bias in the selection of participants based on political party, however strong
negative notions of any of the candidates, were screened during the pre-testing to provide an
objective sample. The public‟s strong opinions on the issues and candidates may explain the
kurtosis and skewness of the distribution curve here tall and strongly pointed, with scores
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 14
Data Analysis
Results
clustered around the middle exhibiting leptokurtic distribution. Historically past elections have
precipitated strong attitudes on various issues however firsts in this election may raise issues
regarding gender and race, as there has never been a serious female contender for the presidency
nor an African American.
No significant difference or relationship was supported that negatively affect both the candidates
making strong statements attacking their rival‟s character, nor was there any negative impact on
the candidates making such negative statements.
Samples of Election Results from the 2008 Democratic Presidential State Primaries
South Carolina 1/26/2008 – Obama 55%, Clinton 27%
Florida 1/29/2008 – Clinton 50%, Obama 33%
California 2/5/2008 – Clinton 52%, Obama 42%
Illinois 2/5/2008 – Obama 65%, Clinton 33%
New York 2/5/2008 – Clinton 57%, Obama 40%
Maine 2/10/2008 – Obama 59%, Clinton 40%
Virginia 2/12/2008 – Obama 68%, Clinton 35%
Ohio 3/4/2008 – Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
Wyoming 3/8/2008 – Obama 61%, Clinton 38%
Pennsylvania 4/22/2008 – Clinton 55%, Obama 45%
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 15
Data Analysis
Results
Samples of Election Results from the 2008 Republican Presidential State Primaries
South Carolina 1/19/2008 – McCain 33%, Huckabee 30%, Romney 15%
Florida 1/29/2008 – McCain 36%, Romney 31%
Maine 2/2/2008 – Romney 52%, McCain 21%
Arizona 2/5/2008 – McCain 47%, Romney 34%, Huckabee 9%
Arkansas 2/5/2008 – Huckabee 60%, McCain 20%, Romney 13%
California 2/5/2008 – McCain 42%, Romney 34%, Huckabee 12%
Massachusetts 2/5/2008 – Romney 51%, McCain 41%, Huckabee 4%
Montana 2/5/2008 – Romney 38%, McCain 22%
New York 2/5/2008 – McCain 51%, Romney 28%, Huckabee 11%
Theoretical Interpretation
Factor analysis utilizing a Likert type scale measures and helps define the strength and validity
of claims. The Theory of Reasoned Action TRA examines the variables that lead to behavioral
intention, predicting behavior, in this study is used as a strategy for audience segmentation.
Careful analysis may lead to determining the public‟s attitudes and voting behavior based upon
negative campaigning. Audience segmentation strategies traditionally based on demographics,
psychographics, and or geography aides in classifying groups that strongly identify with specific
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 16
Data Analysis
Theoretical Interpretation (Cont’d)
issues, ideas, and candidate to interpret and evaluate results from data obtained. Cluster analysis
is considered an atheoretical statistical tool applied in marketing communications and other
disciplines further categorizing subjective norm factors of beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors in
specific characteristic sets identifying behavioral actions used to evaluate assumptions of
negative campaigning on the source and those criticized. No one analytical theory is ever
definitive in interpretive analysis, invariably other theories may have subtly influenced the
analysis of the hypothetical assumptions put forth in this paper.
Means (Interpretations of Data)
A longitudinal survey may have provided differing opinions of the statements made by the
candidates and those criticized providing a more enduring assessment of the impact of
environmental events on the population sample. Potential unintentional threats such as
expectancy on the researcher‟s part, lack of procedure validity, or participant‟s exhibiting the
Hawthorne effect could affect the confidence of the data.
In this study inferences were made regarding variables within the population on the basis of the
relationships found in the sample selected from the population of eligible voters. The practical
significance of the data was reliable however the results were inconclusive in proving the
research questions posited they are none the less potentially important, necessitating further
research.
A chi-square test of the null hypothesis yielded 96% indicating the theory was not valid,
therefore the hypothesis was rejected. Type I Error can be further reduced by testing more
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 17
Data Analysis
Means (Interpretations of Data) (Cont’d)
stringent or conservative testing, lowering the alpha level to 0.01%, however doing so would
lead to a higher likelihood of committing a Type II Error, accepting that the null hypothesis is
probably false, a false negative, meaning the relationship is not significant, when in fact, it is.
The 3,000 respondents sample size is more than reasonable to have confidence in rejecting the
null hypothesis (Jaeger, 1990). Levy and Steelman (1996) point out ways of increasing
statistical power, when the most appropriate alpha test is used for the research study.
It is important to differentiate effect size from statistical significance (J. Cohen, 1988; Rosenthal,
1993). A statistically significant finding only indicates the extent which the results are due to
chance. It does not reference how “small” or “large” a finding may be. Therefore, the statistical
finding is considered as well as how large is the effect size; the estimate of the degree to which
the phenomena is present in a population and/or the extent to which the null hypothesis is false
(Vogt, 1993, p. 79).
Difference analysis examined the differences between the categories of the statements made by
the candidates (independent variable) among eligible voters using a nominal scale for data, chi-
square test. Ordinal data was analyzed for the Mann-Whitney U-Test scores for all respondents,
here statistically significant, providing a high level of confidence to reject the null hypothesis.
The means for the attitude and subjective norm factors were assessed as a strategy to indentify
distinct differences between possible cluster solutions. Means provided a measure in which to
indentify the level of importance on topics, issues, ideals, and candidates. Distinct opinions and
assumptions were developed, however conflicting beliefs and attitudes were not consistent with
individual candidates as expected. Unique groups that share opinions cannot whole embrace an
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 18
Data Analysis
Means (Interpretations of Data) (Cont’d)
individual‟s ideals and positions on the many important issues that face Americans, however
some groups were found to be closely aligned with some of the candidates.
Discussion
Perhaps the negative impact of accusations is dependent on pre-existing notions of ideas, issues,
and individuals. Further it is found that people with strong beliefs regarding issues, ideas, and
individuals were not easily swayed and negative statements merely reinforcing per-existing
notions. Belief systems and what constitutes them and what if anything determines the strength
of one‟s convictions. Further those with limited knowledge, issues, ideas, and individuals base
their assessments of the integrity of those making negative statements and also those accursed.
Individual‟s strength of pre-existing beliefs on various issues may not be influenced or beliefs
Those with limited knowledge on individuals, ideas, issues, or otherwise
During this year‟s 2008 Democratic Primary Presidential Election, Hillary Clinton lost in some
states such as Virginia after harsh criticisms of her rival Barack Obama‟s, while in other states
such as Pennsylvania she won decisively challenging Barack‟s leadership abilities, perhaps from
the mounting negative press Barack had experienced in the national media regarding comments
made regarding American‟s faith. In Florida none of the Democratic Presidential hopefuls
advertised, there was however national attention from several nationally televised debates and
press coverage in the local Florida news sites. Hillary won decisively in Florida, worth noting
as the results of the various state primary contests neither support nor disprove the research
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 19
Discussion (Cont’d)
conducted regarding the effects and influence on the public regarding strong statements
negatively directed at political rivals.
Republican Presidential front runner John McCain seems to have benefited from his rivals
mention of him in various Democratic debates. Mitt Romney‟s statements attacking McCain
seem to have benefited him in Massachusetts and Montana but did not adversely limit McCain‟s
chances in New York and California where he won by a considerable margin.
Republican Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee did not engage in negative mud slinging. His
statements in this study are considered non combative, as such where used as a control for
manipulating the (independent variable) of candidate‟s negative statements.
Republicans and Democrats alike all won in their home states indicating that local bias was
certainly a factor in this 2008 Presidential Primary.
Validity is not a commodity that can be purchased with [statistical] techniques (Brinberg &
McGrath, 1985, p. 13). On a conceptual level the findings important but inconclusive, thus the
ecological validity and replication of this study is impractical.
The selection of the participants may have influenced the validity of the conclusions given
students typically ranged from age of 18 to 25, being highly educated, and single which may
have impacted the results of this research. Inter-participant bias most certainly played a role in
the attitudes of those in the study, as students are more susceptible to social pressures than older
voters. Some of the candidates‟ platforms and statements may have less influence on this young
demographic than older voters regarding religion, race, sex, or other factors.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 20
Limitations and Future Research
Factors of attitudes and subjective norms make it difficult to consider and capture all the possible
dimensions of extraneous variables. Future and past campaigns might provide evidence that
strengthens and/or raises doubts about the research questions postulated here. Focusing on
credibility and trust, as key elements is critical to evaluating negative campaign messages. At
the very least this study offers insights into the transference of attitudes and actions regarding
negative comparative statements supporting existing research on Learning Theory.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 21
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